politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68
Comments
-
Because how would this happen?ozymandias said:
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?kle4 said:
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.Sean_F said:
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.Black_Rook said:
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.Mexicanpete said:
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!GIN1138 said:
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
All Labour needs to do is keep banging on about the NHS between now and election day and the gap will continue to narrow.
All the Tories can really do is point out that Labour can't finance their colossal spending pledges, but all the Labour-leaning slab of the electorate will see is (1) incomprehensibly vast sums of money being used to provide all sorts of goodies and (2) won't that make Our Beloved NHS even more wonderful than it already is?0 -
Well I suspect they backed Boris's deal because they knew if Brexit didn't happens they'd be out.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brexit didn't happen and...0 -
So you believe that having criticised Labour's WASPI bribe, a Tory party which has played it very safe in its policies is going to come up with a ridiculous bribe like Labour? What absurd policy they cannot fund are you expecting them to come up with? You've also only addressed one point of a range of reasons.Luckyguy1983 said:
The WASPI bribe wasn't in Labour’s manifesto. This is nonsense.kle4 said:
I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.ozymandias said:
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?kle4 said:
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.Sean_F said:
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.Black_Rook said:
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.Mexicanpete said:
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!GIN1138 said:
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
0 -
Because voters realise that promises of free money isn't wise.HaroldO said:Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so?
I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.1 -
Hmmm. Sounds like when Johnson was written off before he came back with a deal. Impossible it was said. Boris going nowhere it was said.kle4 said:
I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.ozymandias said:
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?kle4 said:
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.Sean_F said:
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.Black_Rook said:
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.Mexicanpete said:
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!GIN1138 said:
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
Saying this is like 2017 is like those French generals at the start of WW2 expecting a replay of WW1.
0 -
Peter Bottomley.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
I think Peter Bottomley.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
Corbyn really was terrible, so you can't blame the useless old duffer! If Corbyn is ducking out Boris really shouldn't do them either.Floater said:0 -
Sir Peter Bottomley. The other Mr Rook looked this up earlier. There are no survivors from the 1974 elections. Bottomley was first returned in a by-election in 1975.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
I'm going to be negative and say that this is based on an 11 point national poll lead, we're probably at about 9% at the moment so we're realistically looking at a 40 seat majority. I think the lead increases a bit this week and stabilises next week. Labour's campaign looks to have peaked a bit earlier than last time as well, the WASPI stuff should have been saved for next week.0
-
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurrock 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%, to hold Herts SW 46% to 19% for Gauke
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Peter Bottomley.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
JohnO said:
I think Peter Bottomley.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Thanks.Black_Rook said:
Sir Peter Bottomley. The other Mr Rook looked this up earlier. There are no survivors from the 1974 elections. Bottomley was first returned in a by-election in 1975.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
Not the cautious way the Tories have started playing.ozymandias said:
Leads can go back up as well as down 😉Mysticrose said:
That's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.1 -
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.HYUFD said:Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
First reactions:
I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.)
On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington.
That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone?
The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.0 -
I've had a fiver on the Tories on Ynys Mon for shits and giggles.0
-
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Edit: I see she'll be beaten by a mere man. Still, the moral victory is hers.0 -
Piece on Telegraph website about the abuse IDS is being subjected to.HYUFD said:Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r
0 -
Labour to hold Enfield Southgate though 45% to 37% and Ilford North 47% to 38%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
False consciousness, comrade.HaroldO said:Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so?
I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Night all.0 -
She's be doing even better with a softer image IMO. LDs on 20%.Foxy said:
Well the vote share has doubled, so I would disagree, the problem is the distribution of those votes.Andy_JS said:Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.
0 -
the students might well be in current polls, but will have gone home to voteAndy_JS said:
Is there a university there? Labour seem to be doing very well in university towns and cities, holding Canterbury, Portsmouth South, Cambridge, etc.Richard_Tyndall said:Surprised to see Lincoln still red. I think it will go Blue on the day.
0 -
Some other interesting figures: Johnson OK but not comfoirtable in Uxbridge - 50/37/7/3. Corbyn and Thornberry safe as houses. Hendon almost too close to call Con/Lab, but non-Tory vote exactly split in Finchley and Cities of London and Westminster. Portsmouth S leaning Labour, as I thought, and Totnes strong Tory, as also reported here. Trust your PB canvassers!
Haven't analysed in detail, but my impression is that Labour is again doing reasonably well in London. It's the north that's the problem.0 -
A bit 2005, with Corbyn doing a bit better than Howard. At least the Tories could be overhauled in 5 years.0
-
Sure, these things can happen and the effect can be massive and sustained when it does, a dam bursting. But most heartlands remain that way.ozymandias said:
Cough. Scotland. Cough.PaulM said:
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for somethingPhilip_Thompson said:MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.
No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.
One of the earliest seats to declare which might indicate if the Tories are in for a good night, Workington, is a toss up I see.0 -
It's Labour's popularity in university seats that's keeping them above 200 seats at present.0
-
This is exactly what people said about the MRP last time.PaulM said:
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for somethingPhilip_Thompson said:MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.
No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.
"Oh Canterbury is never going Labour, don't be ridiculous, what a stupid.... Etc etc"1 -
It is, and a very fair one.kle4 said:
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.Barnesian said:
Here is the error on the aggregateAndrew said:Alistair said:Edinburgh West Tossup
….snip...
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
There's a plausible explanation for them ending up at either of those boundaries.0 -
It goes to Barry Sheerman after him and then frank field in the unlikely event he holds following which Harriet is the only other pre 1983 MP. Barry and frank were 79ers and harriet a by election in 82. Likely to ge just 2 mps in the house who were there when Maggie came in as PMTheScreamingEagles said:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Peter Bottomley.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
JohnO said:
I think Peter Bottomley.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Thanks.Black_Rook said:
Sir Peter Bottomley. The other Mr Rook looked this up earlier. There are no survivors from the 1974 elections. Bottomley was first returned in a by-election in 1975.TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
1 -
Peter Bottomley apparently.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
If they haven’t learnt from 2017 then I agree. But don’t be surprised to see an acceleration in last two weeks.egg said:
Not the cautious way the Tories have started playing.ozymandias said:
Leads can go back up as well as down 😉Mysticrose said:
That's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.
Always best to sit tight and let your enemy expend their ammo whilst sitting tight. When they’re spent - then’s the time to attack. I could be wrong but don’t assume anything.0 -
Sir Peter Bottomley looks set to be fatehr of the house on these figures:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_by_seniority_(2017–2019)0 -
I would rather be in the position the conservatives are tonight than labour
However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open
I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December
Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume
Anyway time for me to say
'Good night folks'0 -
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
They didn’t back it though, they merely voted for a 2nd reading, that is very different than actually backing anything merely wishing to explore it and let it be heard as proved by Boris hiding it away and going for an election.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Same in 2017 as well. Scotland is made up of about 50 marginals these days.kle4 said:
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.Barnesian said:
Here is the error on the aggregateAndrew said:Alistair said:Edinburgh West Tossup
….snip...
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.0 -
Yes hopefully he gets his revenge on election nightGIN1138 said:
Piece on Telegraph website about the abuse IDS is being subjected to.HYUFD said:Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
Bloody young people.Andy_JS said:Portsmouth South: likely Labour.
Labour doing well in university places like Portsmouth, Canterbury, Cambridge, Exeter, etc.
Know jack all.1 -
LibDems are covering it in activists. If they lose it it will be a huge shock to me (and my bank balance)AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Edinburgh West is a dead heat on the MRP - plenty of fun and games still to come, Scottish voters love to surprise.TheValiant said:I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
*clutches straws*0 -
'Could be'? Of course they would be, and by a massive margin, if only the Labour Party were trying to be a serious party of government. Sadly the evidence is that they are not.Jonathan said:A bit 2005, with Corbyn doing a bit better than Howard. At least the Tories could be overhauled in 5 years.
0 -
Perhaps but also need to ensure Dagenham goes blue as forecast tooAndy_JS said:
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.HYUFD said:Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales.Brom said:
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.kle4 said:
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.0 -
Ban the students.1
-
I think there is also a big shy Tory factor in labour leave constituencies, people who would never admit to anyone they are voting Tory out of fear of Corbyn , even their own spouses. The Tory majority could potentially be much larger1
-
I am going to knock up a 2017 accuracy metric for the MRP tomorrow if I can get the time.Andy_JS said:
It's only one seat. I don't know how many other seats they got wrong because I haven't studied it in detail.llef said:
That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!Andy_JS said:
NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.Alistair said:CSV of the 2017 Yougov MRP results if you wish to compare what actually happened to the predictions last time out.
https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv0 -
Nerve wracking, but it's probably better that way.Alistair said:
Same in 2017 as well. Scotland is made up of about 50 marginals these days.kle4 said:
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.Barnesian said:
Here is the error on the aggregateAndrew said:Alistair said:Edinburgh West Tossup
….snip...
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
A good five or six of them were pretty much nailed on as backing it based on their previous votes and comments.egg said:
They didn’t back it though, they merely voted for a 2nd reading, that is very different than actually backing anything merely wishing to explore it and let it be heard as proved by Boris hiding it away and going for an election.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No chance they will hold Cambridgeegg said:
the students might well be in current polls, but will have gone home to voteAndy_JS said:
Is there a university there? Labour seem to be doing very well in university towns and cities, holding Canterbury, Portsmouth South, Cambridge, etc.Richard_Tyndall said:Surprised to see Lincoln still red. I think it will go Blue on the day.
0 -
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
The LibDem vote may have doubled since 2017, but since the campaign started the LibDems have lost 1 in 3 of their supporters. That has unarguably been solely on Swinson's watch.Foxy said:
Well the vote share has doubled, so I would disagree, the problem is the distribution of those votes.Andy_JS said:Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.
0 -
After the experience of 2 years ago i'd be surprised to see any Tory being complacent.egg said:This can be a bad moment for the Conservatives 😧.
More safety first campaigning like labour in 92 thinking its in the bag. 😕
And this whole horrid thing now serves as tackyvote battle map dropped on remainers like mana.
But are they really set for headline majority if election was tomorrow, based on one polling firm whilst others disagree, and as the PB experts look at each seat they are saying, really?
The number of what build it responses sounds like a lot, but divided by 650 constituency’s? Hm. 🤔. Not that iffy constituency polling based on low numbers again?
I stand by my suspicion this is a dangerous poll for the Tories.
I wouldn't be happy even if we were 30 points ahead.0 -
There's would've loved to have been in the position in 2017.Big_G_NorthWales said:I would rather be in the position the conservatives are tonight than labour
However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open
I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December
Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume
Anyway time for me to say
'Good night folks'
Goodnight BigG.
0 -
Well I certainly hope so, the Labour candidate is to the left of Chairman Mao here.TheScreamingEagles said:
Bassetlaw is going blue as well.Pulpstar said:
Flint should be found a place in the Lords if she wants.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.0 -
Correction - MRP does have the Conservatives taking Kensington. The point applies to Battersea though.Wulfrun_Phil said:First reactions:
I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.)
On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington.
That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone?
The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.0 -
Places where the MRP model was poor last time
TOries outperformed the most in... Isle of Wight, also Yeovil notably.
32%, 19% out.0 -
The shy voter is really not such an issue now as the majority of polls are online . It’s more evident in phone polling and even more so with face to face surveys .kjohnw1 said:I think there is also a big shy Tory factor in labour leave constituencies, people who would never admit to anyone they are voting Tory out of fear of Corbyn , even their own spouses. The Tory majority could potentially be much larger
0 -
And they won't be, if the Far Left isn't heavily defeated in this election.Richard_Nabavi said:
'Could be'? Of course they would be, and by a massive margin, if only the Labour Party were trying to be a serious party of government. Sadly the evidence is that they are not.Jonathan said:A bit 2005, with Corbyn doing a bit better than Howard. At least the Tories could be overhauled in 5 years.
Otherwise, they'll go for "one more heave".0 -
Right, that's enough for this evening.
Night all.0 -
Or - reduce the interest on their loans drastically.......Casino_Royale said:Ban the students.
0 -
MRP underestimated Labour in London, Bristol West.0
-
What a heavy burden of a surname Ian has to live up to. And fails utterly.AdrianFrancis said:0 -
Nah, he’s named Keir after Sir Keir Starmer. 😄Pulpstar said:
Well I certainly hope so, the Labour candidate is to the left of Chairman Mao here.TheScreamingEagles said:
Bassetlaw is going blue as well.Pulpstar said:
Flint should be found a place in the Lords if she wants.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
A manifesto day is a party’s key day, it could be the day the Tories blew this election, by your metaphor they didn’t fire a shot.ozymandias said:
If they haven’t learnt from 2017 then I agree. But don’t be surprised to see an acceleration in last two weeks.egg said:
Not the cautious way the Tories have started playing.ozymandias said:
Leads can go back up as well as down 😉Mysticrose said:
That's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.
Always best to sit tight and let your enemy expend their ammo whilst sitting tight. When they’re spent - then’s the time to attack. I could be wrong but don’t assume anything.
Having said that though, Labour are having a nightmare week a key week for chaser getting momentum. No bounce in polling at the weekend. Anti Semitism gaining big traction. And now their NHS dossier rubbished by the media and falling flat on its face. Have they got anything left, or down and out now And we are looking at final result in this poll and seat projection.
Shouting NHS and getting such a derisory reaction could be the moment they realise Boris shot their fox.
0 -
And if returned the pecking order for the 83 guys is Keith Barron, Edward Leigh, Nick Brown then on to Jezza!wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
I was thanking Alistair for his info. Not having a go at you in case you thought I was. On the flip side, yougov in 2017 had arfon as a labour win and ceredigion as a lib win, both were won by plaid. They also underestimated plaid % in dwyfor and carmartyen east. So not a good model for plaid it would seem.Andy_JS said:
It's only one seat. I don't know how many other seats they got wrong because I haven't studied it in detail.llef said:
That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!Andy_JS said:
NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.Alistair said:CSV of the 2017 Yougov MRP results if you wish to compare what actually happened to the predictions last time out.
https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv0 -
A high of 95% predicted for the Speaker, I wonder if that would be a record, as at a quick glance 85% was the highest I could see for recent others.0
-
He is the personification of the phrase 'don't drink and type'.Alistair said:
What a heavy burden of a surname Ian has to live up to. And fails utterly.AdrianFrancis said:0 -
East Ren is actually a great seat to demonstrate MRP stuff.
The SNP are, fractionally. ahead but have much wider error bars than the Conservatives.0 -
Some voters. Not a sufficient number for the Tories.Andy_JS said:
Because voters realise that promises of free money isn't wise.HaroldO said:Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so?
I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Though that said, things would be very different without Scotland.
Here's what probably happens in the event of a Hung Parliament:
1. SNP, Lib Dems and Labour Europhiles all insist on a 2nd EU referendum. It is held. Narrow win for Remain.
2. In helping to shove the UK back into the EU, the SNP then wreck their 2nd shot at independence, because they can't convince enough Scottish voters why leaving the EU under one set of terms was a disaster but leaving under another set of terms would be a panacea
If it weren't for Scottish votes the Tories could win outright with 296 seats and would be better than 90% likely to bring it home against any plausible Labour surge. But that's a counterfactual. In the real world the Scottish votes are there, and the SNP may soon end up in a most invidious position.
If they successfully lobby for Britain's place in Europe then they'll probably end up locking Scotland into the UK too.0 -
Many have suffered the same burden. My last name is actually SteadyConstitution-McInterestingPosts (old family name).Alistair said:
What a heavy burden of a surname Ian has to live up to. And fails utterly.AdrianFrancis said:2 -
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
Labour forecast to hold Canterbury but lose Scunthorpe and Dagenham so going on Brexit lines0
-
So if the beast loses only Bottomley and Barry Sheerman will remember the first day of Thatchers premiership in the house, only Bottomley will be able to tell tales of PMs Wilson and CallaghanWulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
0 -
Surprised the Tory majority isn't a bit more than 2% in 70% Leave-voting Dagenham.HYUFD said:
Perhaps but also need to ensure Dagenham goes blue as forecast tooAndy_JS said:
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.HYUFD said:Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
What sort of horrendous alphabetical order is this ?
W07000041 Ynys Môn
W07000042 Delyn
W07000043 Alyn and Deeside
W07000044 Wrexham
W07000045 Llanelli0 -
Massive win for the Tories tonight. Boris has captured the zeitgeist.Big_G_NorthWales said:I would rather be in the position the conservatives are tonight than labour
However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open
I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December
Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume
Anyway time for me to say
'Good night folks'
Personally disappointed as Brexit, and even no deal Brexit could be on the cards.
The architect of this predicted Tory landslide is Jeremy Corbyn, but will he stay or will he go?0 -
Apparently a number of other people are doing spreadsheets so I won't duplicate their effort.0
-
I wonder if our labour voters will still be shouting about cowardiceMexicanpete said:
Corbyn really was terrible, so you can't blame the useless old duffer! If Corbyn is ducking out Boris really shouldn't do them either.Floater said:0 -
I don't think many people expected most of the defectors to win seats, or even do that well, bar one or two, but it will be interesting to see which perform best.
I had not considered that I suppose.Endillion said:
95% might include all the other independents standing against Hoyle. Just excludes the Green vote.kle4 said:A high of 95% predicted for the Speaker, I wonder if that would be a record, as at a quick glance 85% was the highest I could see for recent others.
0 -
1
-
oh, that would be pricelessHYUFD said:Bolsover Cons 42% Labour 38%, Skinner out
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Explains the ever more hysterical lies from Labour
0 -
Virtual Labour wipe out predicted in the Black Country.
Only Wolves SE, Walsall S and Warley left as Labour seats.0 -
Agreed. That'a a huge problem with MRP pollingWulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
0 -
But as 2nd reading wasn’t a meaningful vote it is spin to say they backed it.kle4 said:
Nerve wracking, but it's probably better that way.Alistair said:
Same in 2017 as well. Scotland is made up of about 50 marginals these days.kle4 said:
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.Barnesian said:
Here is the error on the aggregateAndrew said:Alistair said:Edinburgh West Tossup
….snip...
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
A good five or six of them were pretty much nailed on as backing it based on their previous votes and comments.egg said:
They didn’t back it though, they merely voted for a 2nd reading, that is very different than actually backing anything merely wishing to explore it and let it be heard as proved by Boris hiding it away and going for an election.TheScreamingEagles said:
But going back to them losing a leave seat in a brexit election, it’s still a long held labour seat, with, Flint in particular, widely respected incumbent, the sort of thing polls and voting models always say will fall but end up dying hard?
Dying hard at Christmas seems most appropriate can I say? Or is that a ban?0 -
That's a little bit sad in a way.wooliedyed said:
So if the beast loses only Bottomley and Barry Sheerman will remember the first day of Thatchers premiership in the house, only Bottomley will be able to tell tales of PMs Wilson and Callaghan0 -
Here is the impact of the Brexit Party standing and not standing in this example on the Yougov MRP:
Swings to Conservative
Reading West: 4
Reading East:1.5
Bolton West: 8
Bolton N.E: 4
The swing to the Conservatives is about twice as large in the North than in the South, but the Brexit Party standing in Labour seats and not standing in Conservative seats translates into a national swing that is uniformed, so according to yougov you can use plain UNS to predict the overall seat numbers.
For example my swingometer junking the Brexit party using yougov's toplines would give a majority of 64.0 -
Mansfield safe Tory now.Pulpstar said:The best part for the Tories about these new found northern/midland seats is... like I suspect North East Derbyshire will show, once they go blue they're probably not going back to Labour.
0 -
Boo!Andy_JS said:Apparently a number of other people are doing spreadsheets so I won't duplicate their effort.
On Bolsover, I confess to having an irrational dislike of Skinner. The most famous anecdotes about him make him seem like the worst kind of partisan, the kind who act childishly but think that is a point of pride. Hopefully that is not the case.0 -
Turns out the distribution of hardcore remainers outside SW London is suboptimal for the Lib Dems and in fact most of those 2nd reffers/Stop Brexiters were actual "Fuck off the Tories, and you the yellow Tories" Labourites instead....
Christ what a siren song.2 -
If anybody is producing spreadsheets that might have a wider appeal can you please get in touch. They might form thread headers. Mike at PB.com2
-
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
2
