politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

constituency - Con - LD
Eastbourne - 48 - 38
Wokingham - 46 - 36
Hazel Grove - 48 - 39
Edinburgh North and Leith - 21 - 12
Kensington - 37 - 29
Lewes - 47 - 41
North Norfolk - 46 - 40
St Ives - 46 - 40
Cheadle - 47 - 42
Guildford - 44 - 39
Winchester - 47 - 44
South Cambridgeshire - 42 - 40
Cheltenham - 45 - 45
Carshalton and Wallington - 40 - 41
Ceredigion - 21 - 22
Westmorland and Lonsdale - 42 - 47

Theresa Villiers could be in trouble in Chipping Barnet.

Betting Post

MRP has Leigh going blue (Tossup but with Con slightly in the lead). If you really believe this that Leigh will go blue you can get 7/2 on that. Surely value if this is accurate.

I do not believe this for that constituency. I can not see Leigh ever going blue unless the Tories are on 1931 style landslides.

kle4 said:

The hexagons of that map make it difficult to find seats. North Wiltshire is below Chippenham.

You can "google" it in the search box.

Redcar in play it seems, but needs Tory improvement to become likely.

Pulpstar said:

Amazing situation in the Cities, Labour holding onto their vote there really painful for Chuka. Dead heat for 2nd, Tories on 40%.

In related news, Berger is projected to be in a dead heat for second (ie last) with Labour in Finchley.

Erith and Thamesmead is strangely close. Labour 10k majority in London.

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

Tories need to communicate this, fast and hard, if they want to win. Most BXP voters must know by now that they might stop Brexit entirely, and not care, but on shares like that the Tories only need a little more squeeze., But they've squeezed a lot already.

According to the YouGov data, the Tories have a sizeable majority. There's no incentive for Brexit Party voters to make Johnson's majority any bigger. In fact they want him to have a smallish majority so that the Spartans can stop him softening Brexit.

tlg86 said:

constituency - Con - LD
Eastbourne - 48 - 38
Wokingham - 46 - 36
Hazel Grove - 48 - 39
Edinburgh North and Leith - 21 - 12
Kensington - 37 - 29
Lewes - 47 - 41
North Norfolk - 46 - 40
St Ives - 46 - 40
Cheadle - 47 - 42
Guildford - 44 - 39
Winchester - 47 - 44
South Cambridgeshire - 42 - 40
Cheltenham - 45 - 45
Carshalton and Wallington - 40 - 41
Ceredigion - 21 - 22
Westmorland and Lonsdale - 42 - 47

7-8 near misses for the LDs there and, with MoE and micro-campaigning, and Swinson not being a Muppet, could convert into x 20 MPs, or so.

StuartDickson said:

tlg86 said:

StuartDickson said:

East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

LD - 38
SNP - 33

But look at the bars. The SNP could be as high as 45%. Swinson could be as low as 30%.

Swinson is way too short in the markets.

I'm calling it for JSwinson. And yes, I am too chicken to take a bet on it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.

Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.

Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.

Surprised to see Lincoln still red. I think it will go Blue on the day.

Philip_Thompson said:

Betting Post

MRP has Leigh going blue (Tossup but with Con slightly in the lead). If you really believe this that Leigh will go blue you can get 7/2 on that. Surely value if this is accurate.

I do not believe this for that constituency. I can not see Leigh ever going blue unless the Tories are on 1931 style landslides.

This is going to be the high watermark for the Cons in the MRP.

tlg86 said:

Constituency - Con - Lab
Bury North - 43 - 43
Chipping Barnet - 41 - 41
High Peak - 42 - 42
Weaver Vale - 42 - 42
Delyn - 43 - 43
Alyn and Deeside - 42 - 42
Bolton North East - 41 - 42
Sedgefield - 40 - 41
Gower - 42 - 43
Coventry North West - 40 - 42
Heywood and Middleton - 38 - 40
Bridgend - 41 - 43
Birmingham, Northfield - 40 - 43
Coventry South - 40 - 43
Erith and Thamesmead - 38 - 41
Gedling - 41 - 44
Lancaster and Fleetwood - 40 - 43
Lincoln - 41 - 44
Stockton North - 39 - 42
Worsley and Eccles South - 39 - 42

MOE takes Cons to over 400 and Labour sub 200. Wow!

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa Villiers could be in trouble in Chipping Barnet.

Good spot, that looks like the most likely Tory seat to change hands to Labour

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

Um, although I think that's a rather bold statement ... I do think this poll is not as great for the tories as they might have hoped.

Three other pollsters have their lead at 7% (not the 11% on which this is based) and narrowing.

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.

Pulpstar said:

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

LD gain St Albans very comfortably.

It voted 61% Remain.

Yes I backed the LDs there and said even if the Tories get 400 seats LD should gain it.

Good spot.

How are the rest of your best holding up?

An exercise best left to the reader.
Find the Constituencies with the lowest LMS error between 2017 GE results and YouGov 2017 MRP.

Bet on any odds against current 1st place in the 2019 results.

TheValiant said:

I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.

How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.

*clutches straws*

Scotland looks pretty unpredictable. At least six toss-ups there.

Looks like Tories could be between 6-12 seats there.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Surprised to see Lincoln still red. I think it will go Blue on the day.

Only the students could keep it red. I think it maybe breaks up later than most Unis

Interesting the bookies have left all their constituency markets up.

wooliedyed said:

GIN1138 said:

Labour holds on the north-east.

Yes the NE isn't fertile hunting ground but bishop auck, Darlington and stockton go I think and Sedgefield and Blyth valley and tynemouth seem in play

However the first results of the night will let us know what's ahead because if Labour's lead in the Sunderlands is slashed but they hold on we'll know Boris is on course for a majority. If there's very little change on 2017 its all going tititicus verticus and if any of the Sunderlands should actually go Blue it's a Con landslide.

TheValiant said:

I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.

How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.

*clutches straws*

If you look at the chart/graph on the toss-up seats, they usually have one of the parties slightly ahead. That's how they called them I guess. They use the phrase toss-up when it's less than around 3% either way I think.

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn.

Perception that the Conservatives aren't running a very good campaign (again).

Belief that history repeats itself.

Belief that Labour core will eventually come home to Labour.

Sense that Corbyn and Labour are getting traction.

Nerves about opinion polls these days.

And above all, probably, narrowing polls with Labour's share improving.

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.

No, but they might be swinging behind a big fat cheque arriving.

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa Villiers could be in trouble in Chipping Barnet.

This is possibly a result of insufficient Jews in the sample. Hendon shouldn't be near as close as the model suggests, even if the polls narrow. Chipping has fewer Jews but enough to matter - although of the three Barnet seats it's the most likely to flip, now the LDs have collapsed.

Interesting that they have Labour marginally ahead of Chuka in Cities of London & Westminster. The betting markets seem to have largely discounted Labour.
Having said that, in practice I suspect Chuka will come second by a fair margin, simply because of the intensive ground game.

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.

It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.

Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?

Yardley: safe Labour.

Looks like Dom Cummings is a genius after all.

Brom said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theresa Villiers could be in trouble in Chipping Barnet.

Good spot, that looks like the most likely Tory seat to change hands to Labour

Good odds still with Bet365 on that.

I got 15/8.

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

The hexagons of that map make it difficult to find seats. North Wiltshire is below Chippenham.

Scotland layout is horrific. Stirling is the closest mainland point to the Western Isles apparently. And is north of Ross, Sky and Locharber

That's why I've asked them whether there's a spreadsheet to go along with this.

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

Um, although I think that's a rather bold statement ... I do think this poll is not as great for the tories as they might have hoped.

Three other pollsters have their lead at 7% (not the 11% on which this is based) and narrowing.

It's not that bold, it's what the precedent of the last election (since which nothing fundamental has changed) tells us.

The Tories need to win outright to stay in power. If we're anywhere short of a majority then the horse-trading between Labour and the other Opposition parties begins.

I reckon that the SNP and the Lib Dems (whatever they might say at the moment) will concede a Corbyn-led administration in exchange for the referendums, especially the EU vote which needs to be negotiated with the EU27 very quickly, The only possible complicating factor is if the DUP - who are very anti-Corbyn and, presumably, willing to see a crash-out Brexit by accident just so long as the Irish Sea border is binned as a result - end up holding the balance of power between the two blocs again.

The Labour surge is now underway. The prospects of a Conservative win look slight.

Sean_F said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.

Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.

Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.

Amusingly, Bolsover leans Conservative.

Skinner's graceless losing speech might be one worth staying up for.

IDS holds on in Chingford.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1199820567068708864

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.

Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.

Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.

Amusingly, Bolsover leans Conservative.

Skinner's graceless losing speech might be one worth staying up for.

I would enjoy that very much.

SouthamObserver said:

Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.

Eh?

Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so?
I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.

PaulM said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.

No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.

Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something

Cough. Scotland. Cough.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1199820567068708864

Which is cause and which is effect.

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

CSV of the 2017 Yougov MRP results if you wish to compare what actually happened to the predictions last time out.

https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.

That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!

SouthamObserver said:

Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.

Labour's on their lowest seat share since 1983...

kle4 said:

ozymandias said:

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.

Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.

I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.

It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.

Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?

I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.

The WASPI bribe wasn't in Labour’s manifesto. This is nonsense.

Barnesian said:

Andrew said:

Alistair said:

Edinburgh West Tossup

….snip...

I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.

Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.

Here is the error on the aggregate

29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.

The best part for the Tories about these new found northern/midland seats is... like I suspect North East Derbyshire will show, once they go blue they're probably not going back to Labour.

So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?

nico67 said:

The fear of giving Johnson a big majority might play well for Labour in some seats they’re currently forecast to lose . It might also help the Lib Dems .

Tory supporters are of course happy with the YouGov and they should be . I think most would have taken this two weeks out from the GE.

However some of the seats are very close and tactical voting isn’t factored in .

But equally it might help the LDs hold North Norfolk and Eastbourne if voters there don't fear Corbyn entering 10 Downing Street.