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SystemSystem Posts: 12,615
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

From the Times – The first YouGov MRP projectionhttps://t.co/RycenPP2qB pic.twitter.com/X3no4gBfAO

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,249
    edited November 2019
    No Chuka no cry
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,431
    Second like LAB
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    Second like Swinson in leaders resigning on 13 December.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    edited November 2019
    It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.

    For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,075
    So can we just cancel the election and take this?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    csv file from the web:

    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    edited November 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Well, what do you know?
    It turns out that Labour are not storming to victory after all.

    They don't need to win, to win.
    ozymandias said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ozymandias said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.

    Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.

    Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
    I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.
    Chill. This. Isn’t. 2017.
    Why isn't it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,431
    DavidL said:

    So can we just cancel the election and take this?

    Yes please!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    Tories need to communicate this, fast and hard, if they want to win. Most BXP voters must know by now that they might stop Brexit entirely, and not care, but on shares like that the Tories only need a little more squeeze., But they've squeezed a lot already.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    DavidL said:

    So can we just cancel the election and take this?

    Only way it will be borne out. The updated one will be quite different given how things are already moving along.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

    I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.

    For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.

    The campaign has not gone all Labour's way in the last 48 hours at all, with Corbyn and their policies being subject to considerable scrutiny and some shocking coverage. The impact of this will not be reflected in the polls yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    edited November 2019
    Canterbury: leans Labour.
    Hastings & Rye: leans Conservative.

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    Am I going to have to do another spreadsheet to summarise the seat forecasts? :)
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    You should read Ashcroft's latest poll. Lots of TBPers answer 0-10% liklihood of voting Conservative, many of them came from Labour.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    csv file from the web:

    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun

    Champion
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    What will all the broadcasters do when all their favourites like Chuka & Anna & Sam all have no jobs or role in public life? Who's going to push the case for rejoining the EU then?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    edited November 2019
    Westmorland & Lonsdale:
    LD - 47
    Con - 42
    St Ives:
    Con - 46
    LD - 40
    Richmond Park:
    LD - 53
    Con - 39
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,158
    Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    May I for the second time today draw the attention of political punters to Cambridge.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

    You can't have everything.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,431
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

    Obviously. Anyone with half a brain can see Labour will never lose around there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

    I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
    Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2019
    YouGov has Lib Dems 2nd in Kensington as opposed to Labour in the earlier MRP.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,497
    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    As others have said previously I think this might (MIGHT!) be a misreading of this. It is entirely possible that in those traditional Labour seats it is only the existence of the Brexit Party which is keeping the Conservatives in contention. It is very likely that many of those TBP voters would go to Labour rather than the Tories if TBP were not standing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,249
    Beckett!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    HaroldO said:

    Is it just me or are people less invested this time? In 2017 the GE was a huge event, this time it feels all rather hollow.

    IDK, people seem just as up for it as last time as far as I can see. Maybe it's being in a safe seat, I cannot tell when things are genuinely exciting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Edinburgh West Tossup



    I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

    But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

    I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    tlg86 said:

    Second like Swinson in leaders resigning on 13 December.

    They have her seat as "Lean Lib-Dem" so if the Lib-Dem position gets any worse she could be out before she can resign. :open_mouth:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

    As low as that?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    StuartDickson said:

    East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

    LD - 38
    SNP - 33
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Banterman said:

    What will all the broadcasters do when all their favourites like Chuka & Anna & Sam all have no jobs or role in public life? Who's going to push the case for rejoining the EU then?

    Lol, they're always wheeling out failed politicians anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    brokenwheel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    You should read Ashcroft's latest poll. Lots of TBPers answer 0-10% liklihood of voting Conservative, many of them came from Labour.
    I'm quoting directly from YouGov who say the Tories would be ahead in these seats without the Brexit Party.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199812755815124992
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited November 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    edited November 2019
    YouGov have Labour winning Cambridge easily....The Lib Dems are f##ked if they can't even make that place close.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    wooliedyed said:

    Beckett!!!

    Yes I can see us winning Derby S

    Derby N is safe for us now even if we have a CHB swing!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    StuartDickson said:

    East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

    One of those tactical voting sites for remainers was pretty amusing, since the stock text about who you need to vote for to get a remainer was still up insisting the LDs were necessary even as it showed it was a dead heat fight between LDs and SNP in that seat. I mean, if remaining is the critical factor it really doesn't matter there, you might as well go on other policies at the same time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Bolsover Tory Gain
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    Chesterfield:

    Lab - 42
    Con - 36
    Brexit - 9
    LD - 8
    Green 3
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,733
    Well thankfully the MRP wasn’t just based on Opinium ! Lol

    Because the model can’t factor in tactical voting it’s going to be a bit of a problem .Does anyone know if we’re going to have just one more of these polls or two .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    edited November 2019
    Stoke Central: toss up.
    Stoke North: leans Conservative.
    Stoke South: safe Conservative.
    Newcastle-under-Lyme: likely Conservative.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.

    No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Alistair said:

    Edinburgh West Tossup

    ….snip...

    I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

    But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

    I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.


    Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    Looks like Richard Tice is shitting the bed for the Tories in Hartlepool.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Edinburgh West a toss-up SLD/SNP, as is Caithness.

    This MRP is absolutely horrific for the Lib Dems. Swinson must be a goner?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    Upper range for PC in Ceredigion looks very high. LDs really seem to struggle in Wales.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    Canterbury:

    Lab - 47
    Con - 43
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Well we'll know how this has gone very very early in the night.

    Con gain Yns Mons lol
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    Looks like Aaron will make it in N-U-L too.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Pidcock safe, lolz.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    OH YOU BEAUTY! :smiley:

    Yes, I've been too chicken to check until now. And I'm still scared that 2 weeks could change the position...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited November 2019
    Boris holds on! Raab hold on! :D
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    If YouGov is correct, for the first time in ages, the Cons will have almost as many ultra safe (/inefficient) seats as Labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Although disappointing for the LibDems in terms of the headline, search through their targets and there are a fair few where the race is still on, with a close finish in store.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,249
    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    A midpoint of 67% predicted for Labour in Manchester Gorton, down nearly 10%, the losers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Con Gain Wakefield, not particularly close either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    edited November 2019
    wooliedyed said:

    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

    Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    The main parties' position regarding precedents learned from 2017 has changed tonight.

    For Labour, until now the experience of 2017 gave hope for 2019. Their position is now that the relative accuracy of the MRP projection for the 2017 election shouldn't be taken as a reason to rely on it for the 2019 election (especially as the 2017 MRP in fact underestimated the Conservative seat count by 16).
    For the Conservatives, the precedent of the 2017 campaign is suddenly giving them renewed hope.
    However, for the LDs, the MRP still sucks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    wooliedyed said:

    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

    So lower end of range is a majority?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    Constituency - Con - Lab
    Bury South - 43 - 40
    Hendon - 43 - 40
    Warwick and Leamington - 42 - 39
    West Bromwich West - 41 - 38
    Dagenham and Rainham - 40 - 38
    Darlington - 43 - 41
    Scunthorpe - 42 - 40
    Vale of Clwyd - 43 - 41
    Clwyd South - 43 - 41
    Bedford - 40 - 39
    Dewsbury - 42 - 41
    Keighley - 43 - 42
    Leigh - 40 - 39
    Stoke-on-Trent Central - 40 - 39
    West Bromwich East - 40 - 39
    Workington - 41 - 40
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    wooliedyed said:

    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

    So many toss-up seats - I don't know how they have been decided in the headline number.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    I'll have to remember to cancel the Times after the election, offer on £3 for 3 months atm.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    LD gain St Albans very comfortably.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,441
    edited November 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
    All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
    Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.

    No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.

    For once, Mr Thompson, I agree with you.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    Pulpstar said:

    LD gain St Albans very comfortably.

    It voted 61% Remain.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Birkenhead is Safe Labour with Other (Frank Field?) on 10%. Do we believe that. I'd think Frank Field would stand a chance there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    StuartDickson said:

    Edinburgh West a toss-up SLD/SNP, as is Caithness.

    This MRP is absolutely horrific for the Lib Dems. Swinson must be a goner?

    I suspect she'll hold on until the actual results are in on 13th Dec :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    I don't think it is helpful for the Tories to have all the media reporting the prediction of a healthy majority for them at this stage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    It will be very interesting to see what happens in Brighton when Caroline Lucas is no longer there.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Labour holds on the north-east.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Andy_JS said:

    Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.

    Too late. She’s had her 15 minutes.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562
    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    Wow, it looks like the actual numbers are worse for Labour then the headlines.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2019
    A bit of something for everyone in this poll. Labour shouldn't be too disheartened.

    Remember, the poll takes no account of constituency or tactical voting. A couple more % points and we're right into hung parliament territory.

    The tories will be happy enough but also, I think, a bit nervous. It's not landslide territory and after their onslaught on Corbyn I think they would hope to be much further ahead.

    The LibDems may be the most disappointed, but see the previous point. There's no constituency level or tactical voting.

    Two weeks to go. All to play for.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    Edinburgh West Tossup

    ….snip...

    I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

    But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

    I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.


    Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
    The error bars and individual constituency results are utterly vital. Without them the MRP is a giant waste of time. The point is to show how you get to those numbers.

    That's what makes MRP so powerful and informative.

    And the 2017 midpoints where pretty fucking good last time out.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    BluerBlue said:

    OH YOU BEAUTY! :smiley:

    Yes, I've been too chicken to check until now. And I'm still scared that 2 weeks could change the position...

    It will.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,799
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    YouGov have Labour winning Cambridge easily....The Lib Dems are f##ked if they can't even make that place close.

    All those students and lecturers who think Corbyn is the best thing since sliced bread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    If YouGov is correct, for the first time in ages, the Cons will have almost as many ultra safe (/inefficient) seats as Labour

    The efficiency of the vote has gone to crap - it's critical to my view of this election, so if it is efficient I willlook very silly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,062
    Constituency - Con - Lab
    Bury North - 43 - 43
    Chipping Barnet - 41 - 41
    High Peak - 42 - 42
    Weaver Vale - 42 - 42
    Delyn - 43 - 43
    Alyn and Deeside - 42 - 42
    Bolton North East - 41 - 42
    Sedgefield - 40 - 41
    Gower - 42 - 43
    Coventry North West - 40 - 42
    Heywood and Middleton - 38 - 40
    Bridgend - 41 - 43
    Birmingham, Northfield - 40 - 43
    Coventry South - 40 - 43
    Erith and Thamesmead - 38 - 41
    Gedling - 41 - 44
    Lancaster and Fleetwood - 40 - 43
    Lincoln - 41 - 44
    Stockton North - 39 - 42
    Worsley and Eccles South - 39 - 42
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

    I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
    This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,562
    MarqueeMark said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

    So many toss-up seats - I don't know how they have been decided in the headline number.
    They take the mid point
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    GIN1138 said:

    Labour holds on the north-east.

    I think that is a big take away. They are holding on in South Wales and the North East.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    wooliedyed said:

    No Chuka no cry

    I've certainly backed the Tories there.

    Firstly, I think Lab/LDs will cancel each other out and, second, it's just the sort of wealthy seat where fear of Corbyn will greatly exceed Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Amazing situation in the Cities, Labour holding onto their vote there really painful for Chuka. Dead heat for 2nd, Tories on 40%.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    Horrific results for the LibDems in the SW.

    One seat to watch where word is Labour are doing badly on the ground is Brighton Kemptown..... "likely Labour" says YouGov.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

    Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
    Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
    Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
    Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
    Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
    Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

    If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
    Dont think 2017 saw a swing to May

    Nor will 2019 see a swing to Brave Sir Boris imo
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    LD gain St Albans very comfortably.

    It voted 61% Remain.
    Yes I backed the LDs there and said even if the Tories get 400 seats LD should gain it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

    Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.
    That's true.

    Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    CSV of the 2017 Yougov MRP results if you wish to compare what actually happened to the predictions last time out.

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    kle4 said:

    Upper range for PC in Ceredigion looks very high. LDs really seem to struggle in Wales.

    Agreed. Plaid over 40% seems incredibly unlikely. ( Though I have heard anecdotally that he is a helpful and competent mp).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,310
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.

    For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.

    The Conservatives could easily win by 11. Look at the leader ratings, and other internal numbers.

    But, even if it's 42/37 in the end, the Tories will have a small majority.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,622
    Totally O/T...

    Go master quits because AI 'cannot be defeated'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50573071

    Anybody who saw the AlphaGo documentary....they had to put people on the roof with him because they were worried about him jumping at one point.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,518
    Mysticrose said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

    Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.
    That's true.

    Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.
    Leads can go back up as well as down 😉
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    tlg86 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

    LD - 38
    SNP - 33
    But look at the bars. The SNP could be as high as 45%. Swinson could be as low as 30%.

    Swinson is way too short in the markets.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,033
    I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.

    How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.

    *clutches straws*
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