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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68
From the Times – The first YouGov MRP projectionhttps://t.co/RycenPP2qB pic.twitter.com/X3no4gBfAO
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No Chuka no cry1
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Second like LAB0
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Second like Swinson in leaders resigning on 13 December.1
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Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.1 -
It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.
For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.
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So can we just cancel the election and take this?0
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They don't need to win, to win.Sean_F said:Well, what do you know?
It turns out that Labour are not storming to victory after all.
Why isn't it?ozymandias said:
Chill. This. Isn’t. 2017.FrancisUrquhart said:
I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.ozymandias said:
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.FrancisUrquhart said:For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.0 -
Tories need to communicate this, fast and hard, if they want to win. Most BXP voters must know by now that they might stop Brexit entirely, and not care, but on shares like that the Tories only need a little more squeeze., But they've squeezed a lot already.Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.0 -
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.0
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I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
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The campaign has not gone all Labour's way in the last 48 hours at all, with Corbyn and their policies being subject to considerable scrutiny and some shocking coverage. The impact of this will not be reflected in the polls yet.FrancisUrquhart said:It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.
For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.0 -
Canterbury: leans Labour.
Hastings & Rye: leans Conservative.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Am I going to have to do another spreadsheet to summarise the seat forecasts?
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You should read Ashcroft's latest poll. Lots of TBPers answer 0-10% liklihood of voting Conservative, many of them came from Labour.Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.0 -
Championtlg86 said:csv file from the web:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun0 -
What will all the broadcasters do when all their favourites like Chuka & Anna & Sam all have no jobs or role in public life? Who's going to push the case for rejoining the EU then?0
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Westmorland & Lonsdale:
LD - 47
Con - 42
St Ives:
Con - 46
LD - 40
Richmond Park:
LD - 53
Con - 390 -
Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%0
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May I for the second time today draw the attention of political punters to Cambridge.0
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East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.0
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You can't have everything.TheScreamingEagles said:Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%
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Obviously. Anyone with half a brain can see Labour will never lose around there.TheScreamingEagles said:Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%
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Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.kle4 said:
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
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YouGov has Lib Dems 2nd in Kensington as opposed to Labour in the earlier MRP.0
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As others have said previously I think this might (MIGHT!) be a misreading of this. It is entirely possible that in those traditional Labour seats it is only the existence of the Brexit Party which is keeping the Conservatives in contention. It is very likely that many of those TBP voters would go to Labour rather than the Tories if TBP were not standing.Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.0 -
Beckett!!!0
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IDK, people seem just as up for it as last time as far as I can see. Maybe it's being in a safe seat, I cannot tell when things are genuinely exciting.HaroldO said:Is it just me or are people less invested this time? In 2017 the GE was a huge event, this time it feels all rather hollow.
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Edinburgh West Tossup
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.0 -
As low as that?TheScreamingEagles said:Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%
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LD - 38StuartDickson said:East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.
SNP - 330 -
Lol, they're always wheeling out failed politicians anyway.Banterman said:What will all the broadcasters do when all their favourites like Chuka & Anna & Sam all have no jobs or role in public life? Who's going to push the case for rejoining the EU then?
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I'm quoting directly from YouGov who say the Tories would be ahead in these seats without the Brexit Party.brokenwheel said:
You should read Ashcroft's latest poll. Lots of TBPers answer 0-10% liklihood of voting Conservative, many of them came from Labour.Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/11998127558151249920 -
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.0 -
YouGov have Labour winning Cambridge easily....The Lib Dems are f##ked if they can't even make that place close.0
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Yes I can see us winning Derby Swooliedyed said:Beckett!!!
Derby N is safe for us now even if we have a CHB swing!0 -
One of those tactical voting sites for remainers was pretty amusing, since the stock text about who you need to vote for to get a remainer was still up insisting the LDs were necessary even as it showed it was a dead heat fight between LDs and SNP in that seat. I mean, if remaining is the critical factor it really doesn't matter there, you might as well go on other policies at the same time.StuartDickson said:East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.
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Bolsover Tory Gain1
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Chesterfield:
Lab - 42
Con - 36
Brexit - 9
LD - 8
Green 30 -
Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
Camel should be happy!
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Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.0
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Well thankfully the MRP wasn’t just based on Opinium ! Lol
Because the model can’t factor in tactical voting it’s going to be a bit of a problem .Does anyone know if we’re going to have just one more of these polls or two .0 -
Stoke Central: toss up.
Stoke North: leans Conservative.
Stoke South: safe Conservative.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: likely Conservative.0 -
MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.
No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.0 -
Alistair said:
Edinburgh West Tossup
….snip...
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
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Looks like Richard Tice is shitting the bed for the Tories in Hartlepool.0
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Edinburgh West a toss-up SLD/SNP, as is Caithness.
This MRP is absolutely horrific for the Lib Dems. Swinson must be a goner?0 -
Upper range for PC in Ceredigion looks very high. LDs really seem to struggle in Wales.0
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Canterbury:
Lab - 47
Con - 430 -
Well we'll know how this has gone very very early in the night.
Con gain Yns Mons lol0 -
Looks like Aaron will make it in N-U-L too.2
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Pidcock safe, lolz.0
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OH YOU BEAUTY!
Yes, I've been too chicken to check until now. And I'm still scared that 2 weeks could change the position...0 -
Boris holds on! Raab hold on!
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If YouGov is correct, for the first time in ages, the Cons will have almost as many ultra safe (/inefficient) seats as Labour0
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Although disappointing for the LibDems in terms of the headline, search through their targets and there are a fair few where the race is still on, with a close finish in store.0
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Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov0
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A midpoint of 67% predicted for Labour in Manchester Gorton, down nearly 10%, the losers.0
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Con Gain Wakefield, not particularly close either.0
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Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
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The main parties' position regarding precedents learned from 2017 has changed tonight.
For Labour, until now the experience of 2017 gave hope for 2019. Their position is now that the relative accuracy of the MRP projection for the 2017 election shouldn't be taken as a reason to rely on it for the 2019 election (especially as the 2017 MRP in fact underestimated the Conservative seat count by 16).
For the Conservatives, the precedent of the 2017 campaign is suddenly giving them renewed hope.
However, for the LDs, the MRP still sucks.
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So lower end of range is a majority?wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
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Constituency - Con - Lab
Bury South - 43 - 40
Hendon - 43 - 40
Warwick and Leamington - 42 - 39
West Bromwich West - 41 - 38
Dagenham and Rainham - 40 - 38
Darlington - 43 - 41
Scunthorpe - 42 - 40
Vale of Clwyd - 43 - 41
Clwyd South - 43 - 41
Bedford - 40 - 39
Dewsbury - 42 - 41
Keighley - 43 - 42
Leigh - 40 - 39
Stoke-on-Trent Central - 40 - 39
West Bromwich East - 40 - 39
Workington - 41 - 400 -
So many toss-up seats - I don't know how they have been decided in the headline number.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
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I'll have to remember to cancel the Times after the election, offer on £3 for 3 months atm.0
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LD gain St Albans very comfortably.0
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All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!GIN1138 said:
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?0 -
For once, Mr Thompson, I agree with you.Philip_Thompson said:MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.
No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.0 -
Birkenhead is Safe Labour with Other (Frank Field?) on 10%. Do we believe that. I'd think Frank Field would stand a chance there.0
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I suspect she'll hold on until the actual results are in on 13th DecStuartDickson said:Edinburgh West a toss-up SLD/SNP, as is Caithness.
This MRP is absolutely horrific for the Lib Dems. Swinson must be a goner?
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I don't think it is helpful for the Tories to have all the media reporting the prediction of a healthy majority for them at this stage.0
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It will be very interesting to see what happens in Brighton when Caroline Lucas is no longer there.0
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Labour holds on the north-east.0
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Too late. She’s had her 15 minutes.Andy_JS said:Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.
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Wow, it looks like the actual numbers are worse for Labour then the headlines.Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.0 -
A bit of something for everyone in this poll. Labour shouldn't be too disheartened.
Remember, the poll takes no account of constituency or tactical voting. A couple more % points and we're right into hung parliament territory.
The tories will be happy enough but also, I think, a bit nervous. It's not landslide territory and after their onslaught on Corbyn I think they would hope to be much further ahead.
The LibDems may be the most disappointed, but see the previous point. There's no constituency level or tactical voting.
Two weeks to go. All to play for.0 -
The error bars and individual constituency results are utterly vital. Without them the MRP is a giant waste of time. The point is to show how you get to those numbers.Andrew said:Alistair said:Edinburgh West Tossup
….snip...
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
That's what makes MRP so powerful and informative.
And the 2017 midpoints where pretty fucking good last time out.0 -
It will.BluerBlue said:OH YOU BEAUTY!
Yes, I've been too chicken to check until now. And I'm still scared that 2 weeks could change the position...0 -
All those students and lecturers who think Corbyn is the best thing since sliced bread.FrancisUrquhart said:YouGov have Labour winning Cambridge easily....The Lib Dems are f##ked if they can't even make that place close.
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The efficiency of the vote has gone to crap - it's critical to my view of this election, so if it is efficient I willlook very silly.TheWhiteRabbit said:If YouGov is correct, for the first time in ages, the Cons will have almost as many ultra safe (/inefficient) seats as Labour
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Constituency - Con - Lab
Bury North - 43 - 43
Chipping Barnet - 41 - 41
High Peak - 42 - 42
Weaver Vale - 42 - 42
Delyn - 43 - 43
Alyn and Deeside - 42 - 42
Bolton North East - 41 - 42
Sedgefield - 40 - 41
Gower - 42 - 43
Coventry North West - 40 - 42
Heywood and Middleton - 38 - 40
Bridgend - 41 - 43
Birmingham, Northfield - 40 - 43
Coventry South - 40 - 43
Erith and Thamesmead - 38 - 41
Gedling - 41 - 44
Lancaster and Fleetwood - 40 - 43
Lincoln - 41 - 44
Stockton North - 39 - 42
Worsley and Eccles South - 39 - 420 -
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.kle4 said:
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
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They take the mid pointMarqueeMark said:
So many toss-up seats - I don't know how they have been decided in the headline number.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
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I think that is a big take away. They are holding on in South Wales and the North East.GIN1138 said:Labour holds on the north-east.
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I've certainly backed the Tories there.wooliedyed said:No Chuka no cry
Firstly, I think Lab/LDs will cancel each other out and, second, it's just the sort of wealthy seat where fear of Corbyn will greatly exceed Brexit.0 -
Amazing situation in the Cities, Labour holding onto their vote there really painful for Chuka. Dead heat for 2nd, Tories on 40%.
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Horrific results for the LibDems in the SW.
One seat to watch where word is Labour are doing badly on the ground is Brighton Kemptown..... "likely Labour" says YouGov.0 -
Dont think 2017 saw a swing to MayGIN1138 said:
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...Andy_JS said:Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Nor will 2019 see a swing to Brave Sir Boris imo0 -
That's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.0 -
CSV of the 2017 Yougov MRP results if you wish to compare what actually happened to the predictions last time out.
https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv0 -
The Conservatives could easily win by 11. Look at the leader ratings, and other internal numbers.FrancisUrquhart said:It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.
For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.
But, even if it's 42/37 in the end, the Tories will have a small majority.
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Totally O/T...
Go master quits because AI 'cannot be defeated'
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50573071
Anybody who saw the AlphaGo documentary....they had to put people on the roof with him because they were worried about him jumping at one point.0 -
Leads can go back up as well as down 😉Mysticrose said:
That's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.wooliedyed said:Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.0 -
But look at the bars. The SNP could be as high as 45%. Swinson could be as low as 30%.tlg86 said:
LD - 38StuartDickson said:East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.
SNP - 33
Swinson is way too short in the markets.0 -
I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
*clutches straws*2
