politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bloomberg’s WH2020 bid looks serious and credible and it helps
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You will definitely have a far better view of the reality of being part of a major political party than I do. Perhaps it is the perception, that those like myself who have never been a party member, hold about political life that has changed more than the reality? Certainly the entryism, ideological purity and bullying that is now seemingly common in both parties is a turn off, to what extent that is real I dont know and guess it will vary massively by branch.NickPalmer said:
We all generalise from our personal experience, but I really don't recognise this picture of a bunch of obsessives in any of the parties (except myself - I spend an hour a day or so on politics, on average). When I was the Broxtowe MP we had 700 members, but I could only usually rely on a handful to turn up to meetings or canvassing or anything else, explicitly because everyone had lots of other interests. It's much the same in SW Surrey - we have 500 members, I've been organising trips to Portsmouth to help there, and the maximum number to date is 3 people. But any number of apologies - daughter's engagement, aunt's illness, house being redecorated, etc etc.noneoftheabove said:
I agree but think on top of that, we have surrendered our parties to idiots. "Normal" people (hate that phrase but cant think of better...) prefer to go out for dinner with friends, watch the football or go to a theatre or concert, than engage in party politics in their free time. We have left it to the extremists, who in turn make engaging in party politics even more soul destroying, creating a negative loop pushing our parties to the extreme.
Perhaps it is time to admit many of us, myself definitely included, dont put enough time into civic society.
What is closer to the mark is that the people who still join parties are more committed to ideas than they used to be, because it's seen as a nerdy and eccentric thing to do - nobody joins partly in the hope of enriching their social lives, as some used to. So it's not that the parties are full of obsessives, but more that if they're called upon to vote for a leader or the like, they vote for someone close to the ideas that made them join. And of course people with less attachment tend to resign as soon as something happens that they don't like, whereas the ideologically-keen people just sigh and plug on. As a Corbynista, my advice to centrists is to be persistent, don't just walk out every time something annoys you. In the end you'll win some of the arguments, but not if you just give up.
Or perhaps it is just us giving ourselves an excuse not to get involved and do the fun things instead!0 -
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.0 -
Jezza/Swinson crossover next week??GIN1138 said:
If only she'd changed her hair doo like Roger and Nabavi advised her to.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1199652373309865987?s=21
The gap has closed...
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That was not a comment o Sturgeon, Corbyn or Johnson.eristdoof said:
It was a comment on how far the standard of comments on this forum has dropped since the GE was announced. Most people here are believing and repeating what they want to believe.0 -
Perfect opportunity for Boris in the AN interview to rebutt Labour's frankly depserate claims via that document. Surpirsed - very surprised, actually, how easily Jo coburn let the dreadful barry Gardiner off the hook. No mention that the document is two years old.0
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It's deeply refreshing to watch Labour try to accuse the Tories of wanting to spend more money on the NHS, rather than less.1
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Do the Tories have any similar political slurry that they can tip over Corbyn? Based on Labour's actions, it doesn't matter if it's true or not!0
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It is true, Tories lead 40% to 30% with 35 to 54sFoxy said:
I don't think that is true.HYUFD said:
It has risen but by 34 over 50% own their own home, coincidentally 35 is the age voters now stop voting Labour with Tories leading with 35 to 54sanother_richard said:
Housing affordability is important.148grss said:
But Foxys argument seems to be that becoming older =/= becoming more likely to vote Tory, rather that the current crop of older people are more likely to vote Tory. So is the average 25-30 year old now, in 20 years, going to be likely to vote Tory at the same rate as current 45-50 year olds (as Foxy suggested would have been the case in the past), or has that trend broken?HYUFD said:
Wrong current polls show the Tories leading with 40s to 50s, 40 being the age most people now own a homeFoxy said:
I suspect not a lot. It is why we don't really see people becoming more Tory with age like previous generations did.Nigelb said:I wonder how dissimilar the stats are for the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368
I was thinking about this during the PB Tory panic over some of the polling, but the Tory party have failed to win a lasting governing majority since Major, with the small blip of Cameron's majority not lasting and being overtaken by the Europe question. Did Thatcher break this age drift? Has something else happened that is making it near impossible for Tories to win a majority? I wonder if the Anyone But Conservative alliance is just too strong and that, as we see now, even unpopular parties with the voters will gain enough tactical votes once an election is called to keep Tories out of power. Is the base of each party enough that, if either side decides to vote tactically, we are now in an era of weak governments and the only response would be electoral reform and a more conciliatory approach to politics, with more emphasis on coalitions and common ground. With Labour trated and therefore more efficient, whereas the white working class vote that the Tories get will be more spread thin, possibly just bolstering them in safe seats rather than winning Lab / LD seats...
The young will not become more Conservative as they age if they don't own their own home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1199371152025632768?s=09
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-505439030 -
OT-ish but that is not a great reflection on British journalists if they've been scooped by the interwebs over a month ago.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1199665916927205376
Cat died 4 and a half weeks ago.0 -
Civil servants’ details should have been redacted.
Their names have now been given out by a politician who could be PM and their boss in just over two weeks time.
Leaks are important but equally so is the way they are presented in the public domain.
A Christopher Hope tweet. Corbyn is a dangerous fantasist. And all over something that is nothing.0 -
On this I have no idea, but often Malcolm Gladwell facts need to come with the same health warning as Labour manifesto promises.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Paddy again:
I know the Southwest is a Brexity place but Lib Dems 5-6 in St Ives ?
There is SOME swing towards them from the Tories and it's only a 312 vote margin to overcome.0 -
The whole civil service now know that LAB can't be trusted with confidential information!
LAB = enemies of Britain
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The Tory manifesto pledges to negotiate trade deals with the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand (interestingly not Canada, which they maybe think they can cc’ over) in parallel with the full UK-EU deal.
I think Johnson’s plan is probably to play the US and EU off against each other in advance of the November 2020 elections to get a good EU deal, and then turn back round to the US to polish off in 2021.
If the EU Deal is full and comprehensive (which is what I think Johnson actually wants) the US deal will be thinner but there will be “something” bilateral there so a victory can be declared.0 -
The problem is all the anti-semitism and terrorist sympathizing is priced in. Other than he left wing views and dodgy friendships, Jezza appears to be a very boring man.BluerBlue said:Do the Tories have any similar political slurry that they can tip over Corbyn? Based on Labour's actions, it doesn't matter if it's true or not!
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In seats in a fortnights time toobigjohnowls said:
Jezza/Swinson crossover next week??GIN1138 said:
If only she'd changed her hair doo like Roger and Nabavi advised her to.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1199652373309865987?s=21
The gap has closed...0 -
The implication is that it’s a outrage that it’s not direct cost free for him.IshmaelZ said:
Is he saying that's a lot, or surprisingly little?eek said:This seems to have got more traction on my twitter feed than anything else this morning
https://twitter.com/jawj/status/1199026735980990465]
There is a reason why Labour want the Tories associated with US trade deals and the NHS.0 -
I might not be a "well respected poster" but I am in the same camp. The reason is in my constituency it really is Con Vs Lab, as the 2017 third placed party have pulled out. Under PR I would be voting for someone else.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.2 -
McDonnell is going to send them all for re-education anyway. Those that don't comply will be removed.Ave_it said:The whole civil service now know that LAB can't be trusted with confidential information!
LAB = enemies of Britain0 -
If the Tories manage to win in a fortnight's time then next time round Labour won't be able to claim the NHS is about to be flogged off to the planks at least.
Well they probably will but it'll have even less credibility than this time.0 -
ICYMI they've said he is antisemitic even though so far there is no tape of him using similarly offensive racial epithets as another well-known party leader (and which given Corbyn's an Arsenal season ticket holder and thus ex officio hates Spurs, whose own supporters use the Y-word about the club, is surprising).BluerBlue said:Do the Tories have any similar political slurry that they can tip over Corbyn? Based on Labour's actions, it doesn't matter if it's true or not!
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I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.0 -
Like Kim Darroch?FrancisUrquhart said:
McDonnell is going to send them all for re-education anyway. Those that don't comply will be removed.Ave_it said:The whole civil service now know that LAB can't be trusted with confidential information!
LAB = enemies of Britain0 -
No, only the home owner ie the parent would be the reference person and counting as owning the property.noneoftheabove said:
Does "based on the age of household reference persons, individuals within a household who act as a reference person for all individuals in the household" mean a 30 year old living with his homeowner parents counts as a homeowner themself?Foxy said:
I don't think that is true.HYUFD said:
It has risen but by 34 over 50% own their own home, coincidentally 35 is the age voters now stop voting Labour with Tories leading with 35 to 54sanother_richard said:
Housing affordability is important.148grss said:HYUFD said:
Wrong current polls show the Tories leading with 40s to 50s, 40 being the age most people now own a homeFoxy said:
I suspect not a lot. It is why we don't really see people becoming more Tory with age like previous generations did.Nigelb said:I wonder how dissimilar the stats are for the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368
The young will not become more Conservative as they age if they don't own their own home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1199371152025632768?s=09
So the point that over 50% at age 34 own their own home by the ONS stands0 -
I remember Jonathan Miller telling a tale of Dudley Moore trying to sabotage a live sketch Miller was taking part in.
Moore was hiding behind the backdrop doing f8rting noises and saying nurse!, nurse! while Miller desperately tried not to crack up in front of the audience
The arid, intellectual way Miller recounted the tale was absolutely hilarious
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The point is not whether the Tories lead with one particular age group, or not, the point is that there is now such a large divide between different age groups that was not there before in earlier decades.HYUFD said:
It is true, Tories lead 40% to 30% with 35 to 54sFoxy said:
I don't think that is true.HYUFD said:
It has risen but by 34 over 50% own their own home, coincidentally 35 is the age voters now stop voting Labour with Tories leading with 35 to 54sanother_richard said:
Housing affordability is important.148grss said:
But Foxys argument seems to be that becoming older =/= becoming more likely to vote Tory, rather that the current crop of older people are more likely to vote Tory. So is the average 25-30 year old now, in 20 years, going to be likely to vote Tory at the same rate as current 45-50 year olds (as Foxy suggested would have been the case in the past), or has that trend broken?HYUFD said:
Wrong current polls show the Tories leading with 40s to 50s, 40 being the age most people now own a homeFoxy said:
I suspect not a lot. It is why we don't really see people becoming more Tory with age like previous generations did.Nigelb said:I wonder how dissimilar the stats are for the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368
....
The young will not become more Conservative as they age if they don't own their own home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1199371152025632768?s=09
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
Why is that? What damage does that do? What can we do about it?0 -
I'd hate to see your definition of exciting!FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem is all the anti-semitism and terrorist sympathizing is priced in. Other than he left wing views and dodgy friendships, Jezza appears to be a very boring man.BluerBlue said:Do the Tories have any similar political slurry that they can tip over Corbyn? Based on Labour's actions, it doesn't matter if it's true or not!
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Moore did that routine on the notorious 'Derek and Clive' sessions. It ends with Peter Cooke saying, 'I'm not changing your sheets again Mr Hastings.'contrarian said:I remember Jonathan Miller telling a tale of Dudley Moore trying to sabotage a live sketch Miller was taking part in.
Moore was hiding behind the backdrop doing f8rting noises and saying nurse!, nurse! while Miller desperately tried not to crack up in front of the audience
The arid, intellectual way Miller recounted the tale was absolutely hilarious0 -
If you read his follow up tweet, it is comparing the cost in the USA, which is $440 per tablet, or over 3k to treat a whole family.matt said:
The implication is that it’s a outrage that it’s not direct cost free for him.IshmaelZ said:
Is he saying that's a lot, or surprisingly little?eek said:This seems to have got more traction on my twitter feed than anything else this morning
https://twitter.com/jawj/status/1199026735980990465]
There is a reason why Labour want the Tories associated with US trade deals and the NHS.
So he is saying that it is cheap.0 -
Minefield. For me, there's a difference between saying a group vote as a bloc in a mindless way (e.g. because community leaders tell them to) and saying that a group as a whole are likely to vote in a certain way because of events and the values they hold. The first can be a bit dodgy, the second far less so. But in any case, betting trumps all.DecrepiterJohnL said:Because it is antisemitic to suggest Jews vote as a block and Islamophobic to suggest Muslims vote as a block but for demographic and betting purposes, there are broad trends that, erm, well as long as Jeremy and Boris don't say it (cont p94).
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Why is @Peter_the_Punter backing the reds - I thought he lived in the Cotswolds which is the sort of seat Labour are never going to win in a million years ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.0 -
BBC giving Labour enough cover...
There are implications in these documents that suggest that sort of thing is on the table, but there's a firm denial from Boris Johnson that for his part anyway, they're open to negotiation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-505698270 -
Interesting snippet in last night's London Standard suggesting Momentum have been pulling out resource from Croydon Central and Battersea to support their Cobynista candidate in Streatham. Very odd if true as it can't be that they think either Croydon Central or Battersea are a shoe in for Labour.I think the Tories may take Croydon C based on current polling and some anecdotal comments I have heard and think Battersea is close .Can't believe Labour are in trouble in Streatham but......0
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He's comparing it to US pricesmatt said:
The implication is that it’s a outrage that it’s not direct cost free for him.IshmaelZ said:
Is he saying that's a lot, or surprisingly little?eek said:This seems to have got more traction on my twitter feed than anything else this morning
https://twitter.com/jawj/status/1199026735980990465]
There is a reason why Labour want the Tories associated with US trade deals and the NHS.
https://twitter.com/jawj/status/11990280802176737300 -
Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
Unraveled by lunchtime..
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/factcheck-corbyns-nhs-for-sale-claims/0 -
It's on the Come Again album I believe. Which has the lovely story on the cover of Cooke throwing an autograph hunter head first into a public lavatory. 'Thats when the fan really hit the shit'Stark_Dawning said:
Moore did that routine on the notorious 'Derek and Clive' sessions. It ends with Peter Cooke saying, 'I'm not changing your sheets again Mr Hastings.'contrarian said:I remember Jonathan Miller telling a tale of Dudley Moore trying to sabotage a live sketch Miller was taking part in.
Moore was hiding behind the backdrop doing f8rting noises and saying nurse!, nurse! while Miller desperately tried not to crack up in front of the audience
The arid, intellectual way Miller recounted the tale was absolutely hilarious
And the perfect 'hello colin how are you? Yeah, oh lovely and how's Robin? Yeah, alright mate, love to the wife, yeah see ya............ c*nt'0 -
Why wouldn’t Farage want tv time? Weird decision.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
Well you can't argue that a night out with Bozza would be a lot more interesting / exciting than Jezza....the later would be a fair trade Vegan beer (just the one mind you) discussing the benefits of unionization of the whole private sector, man hole cover he has recently photo'ed and how the allotment committee is run by the Jews.BluerBlue said:
I'd hate to see your definition of exciting!FrancisUrquhart said:
The problem is all the anti-semitism and terrorist sympathizing is priced in. Other than he left wing views and dodgy friendships, Jezza appears to be a very boring man.BluerBlue said:Do the Tories have any similar political slurry that they can tip over Corbyn? Based on Labour's actions, it doesn't matter if it's true or not!
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Which means neither has - would you want to share a debate stage with these people?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
Just read some of his tweets,garbage on stilts.rottenborough said:0 -
Big opp for Sunak. Future leader?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816011 -
If you want Labour to expunge itself of the Far Left (like what happened post 1983) and get your party back then it needs to be defeated heavily this year. Otherwise you reinforce the “one more heave” narrative - you risk going into the next election with a similar platform and similar leader, and losing again. And again.eristdoof said:
I might not be a "well respected poster" but I am in the same camp. The reason is in my constituency it really is Con Vs Lab, as the 2017 third placed party have pulled out. Under PR I would be voting for someone else.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
I know you might think, as a Tory, “I would say that”, but I really mean it. And @SouthamObserver gets this.
The scale of victory doesn’t matter on the Tory side regarding a Labour comeback. The electorate is very loose these days - look at the last two years - and the next Government is likely to badly damage itself, and will have been in power for up to 15 years. It’s a ripe opportunity.
You are far more likely to win GE2024 with a centre-left leader starting from a 180 seat platform than a far-left successor leader starting from a 230 seat platform.
But you need to be willing to switch on the radiotherapy first to save the patient.0 -
“A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on.”CarlottaVance said:Unraveled by lunchtime..
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/factcheck-corbyns-nhs-for-sale-claims/
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Tories and Labour sending out the 3rd team. If Swinson can't get hits in against those, the Lib Dems are screwed.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1199669183837081601
I bet the BBC are absolutely fuming. I expect them to give Team Blue and Red some incoming to dare not to respect them.0 -
Because he doesn't want to be associated with the shellacking the BXP are going to get in this election.Time_to_Leave said:
Why wouldn’t Farage want tv time? Weird decision.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
I'm saying he's categorically not done that.eristdoof said:
Are you claiming that Boris did not make that speech? Or just the technical details about NI being different to Engand? Of course. Godalming is different to Watford, but Boris has really sold NI down the swannee and said that no sane MP would do that.Philip_Thompson said:
No that is a myth. NI was always different to England, especially post-GFA but even before that - and even May's December 2017 agreement left open the window for NI being different to the EU so long as Stormont consented.eristdoof said:
"which is why no sane PM would ever want such a deal"noneoftheabove said:
The NHS is one of the (possibly the?) biggest health organisations in the world and can negotiate preferential pricing from the US pharma industry. Those prices then become a reference point for many other organisations to aim for.GIN1138 said:
What on earth is the problem with the US wanting to sell more drugs to the NHS? As long as the price is reasonable and the drugs are safe I couldn't care less whether drugs are from America, Germany, Japan and Timbuktu.CarlottaVance said:
Jezza comes across as very old fashioned over of this IMO.
The US pharma industry wants to take away the NHS negotiating power, which will increase their profits not just from the UK but globally.
Costs increase to consumers globally = Higher US pharma profits = Good for US
Of course it is bad for the UK which is why no sane PM would ever want such a deal, unless they had backed themselves into a corner promising things they cannot deliver to get elected......
Didn't Mr Johnson say the same thing about a Brexit deal in which NI was treated differently to GB?
The logical conclusion is that Mr Johnson is not sane.
Expanding the Stormont consent principle that all parties had signed up to [including the DUP] in 2017 is entirely reasonable!0 -
Guido’s wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn's second document actually indicates the NHS will get cheaper drugs - that's what Corbyn's getting angry at this morning https://t.co/5hmQRrEFBU https://t.co/1dCrA8MvkN
It means that US desired changes on patents make impact U.K. ability to buy generic (ie cheaper) drugs1 -
For him to answer but he wants to frustrate Leave and (I think) he’s also a visceral heart and soul Labour voter, as Jonathan is too.Pulpstar said:
Why is @Peter_the_Punter backing the reds - I thought he lived in the Cotswolds which is the sort of seat Labour are never going to win in a million years ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.
If it’s part of you and how you define yourself and your identity it’s much easier to disassociate voting Labour from its leader, even if it’s Chairman Mao.0 -
Tice is a candidate (Hartlepool), Farage isn't.Time_to_Leave said:
Why wouldn’t Farage want tv time? Weird decision.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
I quite like Sunak, I think he's one for the future.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories and Labour sending out the 3rd team. If Swinson can't get hits in against those, the Lib Dems are screwed.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
People like @anotherrichard and myself have been warning about this since about 2010. The bean counting sect of the Conservatives poopooed the notion on the grounds young people were lining up to to pay Uni fees and have no houses.LostPassword said:
The point is not whether the Tories lead with one particular age group, or not, the point is that there is now such a large divide between different age groups that was not there before in earlier decades.HYUFD said:
It is true, Tories lead 40% to 30% with 35 to 54sFoxy said:
I don't think that is true.HYUFD said:
It has risen but by 34 over 50% own their own home, coincidentally 35 is the age voters now stop voting Labour with Tories leading with 35 to 54sanother_richard said:
Housing affordability is important.148grss said:
But Foxys argument seems to be that becoming older =/= becoming more likely to vote Tory, rather that the current crop of older people are more likely to vote Tory. So is the average 25-30 year old now, in 20 years, going to be likely to vote Tory at the same rate as current 45-50 year olds (as Foxy suggested would have been the case in the past), or has that trend broken?HYUFD said:
Wrong current polls show the Tories leading with 40s to 50s, 40 being the age most people now own a homeFoxy said:
I suspect not a lot. It is why we don't really see people becoming more Tory with age like previous generations did.Nigelb said:I wonder how dissimilar the stats are for the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368
....
The young will not become more Conservative as they age if they don't own their own home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1199371152025632768?s=09
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
Why is that? What damage does that do? What can we do about it?
Fix the fees and the houses and the differences will move on to other things, currently Corbyn is the only politician with the guts to say so and is getting more than his fair share of the youth vote.0 -
And why antisemitism etc won't be expunged too.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
It will take a 1983-style landslide to get Labour fit for government. People who vote for Labour are delaying the day of reckoning when Labour will face reality.
If you can't vote for the Tories at least vote Lib Dem. Then at least Labour will need to look inwards and fix its problems and we can have a party suitable for government opposing the Tories - vote for Labour next time then once they've done that!2 -
Yeah, the US really hate NICE and want it gone.Charles said:
Guido’s wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn's second document actually indicates the NHS will get cheaper drugs - that's what Corbyn's getting angry at this morning https://t.co/5hmQRrEFBU https://t.co/1dCrA8MvkN
It means that US desired changes on patents make impact U.K. ability to buy generic (ie cheaper) drugs0 -
Same reason he didn't in 2017 - he doesn't want the crap result damaging his credibility.Time_to_Leave said:
Why wouldn’t Farage want tv time? Weird decision.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
I am expecting polls down to single figure leads now for the Tories. And I can't see how they can reserve it.0
-
why Sturgeon and not Blackford ?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
Caroline also isn't Green leader anymore (although better known and liked than our leaders) so it is a strange line up...tlg86 said:
I quite like Sunak, I think he's one for the future.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories and Labour sending out the 3rd team. If Swinson can't get hits in against those, the Lib Dems are screwed.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
Well that’s one to swerve. Think I’ll go and get a tooth pulled instead.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1199669183837081601
0 -
What is it with Labour and dodgy dossiers? The Tories should get a senior figure to call a press conference and hand out printed details of every meeting and every supportive statement Corbyn has ever had in relation to Britain's enemies. It would be a long list, and have the merit of actually being true...0
-
Which will make it easy for Boris to refute them by stating that the plans are no longer in effect and he will not implement them. Given that it's such an open goal, he will no doubt do so quickly.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky confirming these documents were from Theresa May's time and before Boris Johnson came into office in Downing Street
Waits...
Waits...
Waits...
0 -
That sums up the situation. Too many folks who should know better are in denial.Philip_Thompson said:
And why antisemitism etc won't be expunged too.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
It will take a 1983-style landslide to get Labour fit for government. People who vote for Labour are delaying the day of reckoning when Labour will face reality.
If you can't vote for the Tories at least vote Lib Dem. Then at least Labour will need to look inwards and fix its problems and we can have a party suitable for government opposing the Tories - vote for Labour next time then once they've done that!0 -
''And why antisemitism etc won't be expunged too.''
In the 1980s militant was beaten by the representatives of the mass rank and file from manufacturing industry. Steel, coal, railways, docks, cars.
They are not around any more.
0 -
Exactly.Philip_Thompson said:
And why antisemitism etc won't be expunged too.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
It will take a 1983-style landslide to get Labour fit for government. People who vote for Labour are delaying the day of reckoning when Labour will face reality.
If you can't vote for the Tories at least vote Lib Dem. Then at least Labour will need to look inwards and fix its problems and we can have a party suitable for government opposing the Tories - vote for Labour next time then once they've done that!
Won’t happen though. Visceral dislike of the Tories and loyalty to their identity with the Labour brand will win through.
It always does.0 -
Miller was brilliant. No wonder people of a certain age yearn for the past when confronted by today's crop of slebs.contrarian said:I remember Jonathan Miller telling a tale of Dudley Moore trying to sabotage a live sketch Miller was taking part in.
Moore was hiding behind the backdrop doing f8rting noises and saying nurse!, nurse! while Miller desperately tried not to crack up in front of the audience
The arid, intellectual way Miller recounted the tale was absolutely hilarious1 -
Without wanting to be complacent, I see very little evidence that Labour's campaign has caught fire, in the way that it did in 2017. Between the immediate pre-election period and now, the gap between the two parties hasn't shifted very much, even as both have risen in the polls. Corbyn's own ratings remain much worse than Johnson's, and I can't see that altering in the next two weeks.0
-
RLB can treat it as a leadership hustings.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11996691838370816010 -
They don't need to. Keep it above 6 and it's job done. Landslide talk was just nonsense.FrancisUrquhart said:I am expecting polls down to single figure leads now for the Tories. And I can't see how they can reserve it.
0 -
You’re not joining the bedwetting and pantshitting club, then?Sean_F said:Without wanting to be complacent, I see very little evidence that Labour's campaign has caught fire, in the way that it did in 2017. Between the immediate pre-election period and now, the gap between the two parties hasn't shifted very much, even as both have risen in the polls. Corbyn's own ratings remain much worse than Johnson's, and I can't see that altering in the next two weeks.
0 -
The 'futile gesture' sketch is one of those few things that makes me laugh every time I see it, along with M & W/Andre Previn and Monty Python's 'Working Class Playwright'.Alphabet_Soup said:
Miller was brilliant. No wonder people of a certain age yearn for the past when confronted by today's crop of slebs.contrarian said:I remember Jonathan Miller telling a tale of Dudley Moore trying to sabotage a live sketch Miller was taking part in.
Moore was hiding behind the backdrop doing f8rting noises and saying nurse!, nurse! while Miller desperately tried not to crack up in front of the audience
The arid, intellectual way Miller recounted the tale was absolutely hilarious
0 -
Well given the entirety of Cheltenham and its environs is a Lib Dem/Tory contest, the Tories will be very happy with him voting Labour.Casino_Royale said:
For him to answer but he wants to frustrate Leave and (I think) he’s also a visceral heart and soul Labour voter, as Jonathan is too.Pulpstar said:
Why is @Peter_the_Punter backing the reds - I thought he lived in the Cotswolds which is the sort of seat Labour are never going to win in a million years ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.
If it’s part of you and how you define yourself and your identity it’s much easier to disassociate voting Labour from its leader, even if it’s Chairman Mao.0 -
They’ll either be loads more or loads less tonight after 10pmCasino_Royale said:
You’re not joining the bedwetting and pantshitting club, then?Sean_F said:Without wanting to be complacent, I see very little evidence that Labour's campaign has caught fire, in the way that it did in 2017. Between the immediate pre-election period and now, the gap between the two parties hasn't shifted very much, even as both have risen in the polls. Corbyn's own ratings remain much worse than Johnson's, and I can't see that altering in the next two weeks.
0 -
It hasn't caught fire in the same way as 2017, but it is still a slow burning increase on Labour's part. Tories haven't done anything to actively alienate their voters this time around, but we shall see.Casino_Royale said:
You’re not joining the bedwetting and pantshitting club, then?Sean_F said:Without wanting to be complacent, I see very little evidence that Labour's campaign has caught fire, in the way that it did in 2017. Between the immediate pre-election period and now, the gap between the two parties hasn't shifted very much, even as both have risen in the polls. Corbyn's own ratings remain much worse than Johnson's, and I can't see that altering in the next two weeks.
0 -
Well, maybe. The trouble with the "these are just technical talks" line is that it sounds defensive and shifty. similarly "ignore it because these documents were published on Reddit already" makes it sound like there's definitely something there.humbugger said:
Yes I'm afraid that Labour really is scrambling around for something, anything to try to move on from Corbyn's catastrophic interview with Andrew Neil. Quite apart from the substance, I'm not sure having uniformed NHS staff handing the documents to journalists is good optics.Scrapheap_as_was said:
What is clear is that Labour are now being scrutinised much more closely than they were in 2017, and if the public in their wisdom elect a Corbyn led government which turns out to be a disaster (it will be) they will not be able to claim they were not warned.
in any case it's obviously better for Labour for everybody to be talking about whether there is any significance in these US NHS discussions than about anti-semitism in the Labour Party, so the scrambling around appears to be reasonably successful.0 -
On about the time of askingkinabalu said:
Perhaps watch again if you can bear it. Because he did answer it. He said it was an antisemitic trope.Charles said:Finally watched the Corbyn-Neil interview. Of course I think he cane across shiftily, but i suspect both sides will be able to mine for social media clips so probably a score draw.
However what interests me is this:
Neil asked is the phrase “Rothschild Zionists rule Israel and the world” anti Semitic or not?
Corbyn didn’t and wouldn’t give a straight answer.
A simple yes would have closed it down
The only reason why I can think he wouldn’t have done that is he was aware/afraid that Neil had evidence that a friend/ally of Corbyn’s had said that (it turned out to be someone called Liam Moore who I’ve never heard of)
Can anyone else explain why Corbyn wouldn’t answer this question? It looked terrible.
I’m also not convinced that “it’s an anti Semitic trope” is quite the same as “yes it’s anti Semitic”. To parse words it implies that it is used be anti Semites but not inherently anti Semitic0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2013/mar/24/boris-johnson-accused-nasty-videoeristdoof said:
That was not a comment o Sturgeon, Corbyn or Johnson.eristdoof said:
It was a comment on how far the standard of comments on this forum has dropped since the GE was announced. Most people here are believing and repeating what they want to believe.0 -
So these talks took place before Johnson was PM.
Ok fine but if they admit they even happened then it’s not a good look .0 -
Might I suggest a visit to the BBC website. Boris's quick rebuttal is timed at 12.22pm.viewcode said:
Which will make it easy for Boris to refute them by stating that the plans are no longer in effect and he will not implement them. Given that it's such an open goal, he will no doubt do so quickly.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky confirming these documents were from Theresa May's time and before Boris Johnson came into office in Downing Street
Waits...
Waits...
Waits...0 -
No. The household reference person is a nominated single individual in the household. In practice, this is the person who fills out the census form. Because of the different propensity by age and sex to fill out forms, this is usually a middle-aged woman. If a 30 year old male lives with his parents then the person who fills out the form will be his parent, who will usually put their own name into the box.noneoftheabove said:
Does "based on the age of household reference persons, individuals within a household who act as a reference person for all individuals in the household" mean a 30 year old living with his homeowner parents counts as a homeowner themself?Foxy said:
I don't think that is true.HYUFD said:
It has risen but by 34 over 50% own their own home, coincidentally 35 is the age voters now stop voting Labour with Tories leading with 35 to 54sanother_richard said:
Housing affordability is important.148grss said:HYUFD said:
Wrong current polls show the Tories leading with 40s to 50s, 40 being the age most people now own a homeFoxy said:
I suspect not a lot. It is why we don't really see people becoming more Tory with age like previous generations did.Nigelb said:I wonder how dissimilar the stats are for the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368
The young will not become more Conservative as they age if they don't own their own home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1199371152025632768?s=09
The "household reference person" is a useful concept because it enables the other occupants to be defined in relationship to that person, thus disambiguating terms like "son of" and "lodger of"0 -
Why?nico67 said:So these talks took place before Johnson was PM.
Ok fine but if they admit they even happened then it’s not a good look .
Sky just now 'the talks are quite detailed but actually don't much mention the NHS and make it clear that the US negotiators are sensitive to the importance of the NHS in the UK'. So the documents have rebutted Corbyn's bullshit claims!0 -
Thhe BBC has quoted Farage as saying that an "extreme cult" has taken over Labour.
Well done for the avoidance of the obvious typo.
Or is it a typo?0 -
Gladwell being wrong is a good rule of thumb.FrancisUrquhart said:
On this I have no idea, but often Malcolm Gladwell facts need to come with the same health warning as Labour manifesto promises.CarlottaVance said:
Not sure about the specific question but according to the OECD the USA spent 2% of GDP on pharmaceutical spending in 2017, and the UK 1.1%.
https://data.oecd.org/healthres/pharmaceutical-spending.htm0 -
Thanks, still a little unclear.viewcode said:
No. The household reference person is a nominated single individual in the household. In practice, this is the person who fills out the census form. Because of the different propensity by age and sex to fill out forms, this is usually a middle-aged woman. If a 30 year old male lives with his parents then the person who fills out the form will be his parent, who will usually put their own name into the box.noneoftheabove said:
Does "based on the age of household reference persons, individuals within a household who act as a reference person for all individuals in the household" mean a 30 year old living with his homeowner parents counts as a homeowner themself?Foxy said:
I don't think that is true.HYUFD said:
It has risen but by 34 over 50% own their own home, coincidentally 35 is the age voters now stop voting Labour with Tories leading with 35 to 54sanother_richard said:
Housing affordability is important.148grss said:HYUFD said:
Wrong current polls show the Tories leading with 40s to 50s, 40 being the age most people now own a homeFoxy said:
I suspect not a lot. It is why we don't really see people becoming more Tory with age like previous generations did.Nigelb said:I wonder how dissimilar the stats are for the UK ?
https://twitter.com/KBAndersen/status/1198653456581562368
The young will not become more Conservative as they age if they don't own their own home.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543903
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1199371152025632768?s=09
The "household reference person" is a useful concept because it enables the other occupants to be defined in relationship to that person, thus disambiguating terms like "son of" and "lodger of"
So is 34 the median age of first household ownership rather than an age where half 34 year olds own and half dont own?0 -
What worries me is the market and predictive herding around the 345-355 mark for the Tories.
It could be 40 seats higher or lower than that, and the LDs look like they’re having a shocker but there are some field reports they’re doing better than expected too.
We might not know until 10pm tonight.0 -
So you say but the long fall in home ownership rates first was halted and now home ownership rates are increasing again. So it looks like the Tories are trying to fix the situation aren't they given that home ownership rates are going up again once more? Do you not view that as good news?Alanbrooke said:People like @anotherrichard and myself have been warning about this since about 2010. The bean counting sect of the Conservatives poopooed the notion on the grounds young people were lining up to to pay Uni fees and have no houses.
Fix the fees and the houses and the differences will move on to other things, currently Corbyn is the only politician with the guts to say so and is getting more than his fair share of the youth vote.
Still much further to go of course, but if over the next five years home ownership rates continue to go up rather than down then I for one believe we will be in a better situation. And I for one do not believe the current increase in home ownership rates will continue under Corbyn, do you?0 -
I have a lot of confidence in the YouGov MRP, but there's part of me wondering whether it will be wrong this time. Hasn't it often been the case that the best predictor for the previous election has failed at the subsequent election?Casino_Royale said:What worries me is the market and predictive herding around the 345-355 mark for the Tories.
It could be 40 seats higher or lower than that, and the LDs look like they’re having a shocker but there are some field reports they’re doing better than expected too.
We might not know until 10pm tonight.0 -
No. More than 50% of 34 year olds own their own home.noneoftheabove said:Thanks, still a little unclear.
So is 34 the median age of first household ownership rather than an age where half 34 year olds own and half dont own?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/milestonesjourneyingintoadulthood/2019-02-18
The age at which people own their own home is continuing to rise: it is not until the age of 34 that more than 50% of people live in a home they own (based on the age of household reference persons, individuals within a household who act as a reference person for all individuals in the household). In 1997, the youngest age at which more than 50% of people were homeowners was 26.
This line is interesting and a positive that we are heading back in the right direction and probably helps explain why home ownership rates have started to increase again:
In 1993, the average house price was 4.9 times the average household salary of a household headed by a 16- to 24-year-old. In 2016, it was 8.2 times (a decline from its peak of 11.2 times in 2007).0 -
Generic drugs in the USA are much cheaper compared to patented ones .
But that’s like saying the patent drug is 1,000 pounds , the generic one 200 pounds so 5 times cheaper.
In the UK there’s less disparity but both are miles cheaper .0 -
Ah, the unedifying prospect of six white people telling a BAME MP that it's his party that's the racist one.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1199669183837081601
I'm sure he'll eventually be derided as another Oxford PPE clone, but I really like Sunak and think he's got a good future. And (Sturgeon aside) that's a pretty gentle field he's up against.0 -
I will either be a lot more or a lot less nervous after 10pm tonight but I won't relax until 10pm on 12/12. And if that's like 2017 I won't relax until much, much later.Casino_Royale said:What worries me is the market and predictive herding around the 345-355 mark for the Tories.
It could be 40 seats higher or lower than that, and the LDs look like they’re having a shocker but there are some field reports they’re doing better than expected too.
We might not know until 10pm tonight.0 -
He is in the Tewkesbury Constituency, they weigh Tory votes.Pulpstar said:
Well given the entirety of Cheltenham and its environs is a Lib Dem/Tory contest, the Tories will be very happy with him voting Labour.Casino_Royale said:
For him to answer but he wants to frustrate Leave and (I think) he’s also a visceral heart and soul Labour voter, as Jonathan is too.Pulpstar said:
Why is @Peter_the_Punter backing the reds - I thought he lived in the Cotswolds which is the sort of seat Labour are never going to win in a million years ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.
If it’s part of you and how you define yourself and your identity it’s much easier to disassociate voting Labour from its leader, even if it’s Chairman Mao.0 -
FactCheck? Is that the Conservative twitter account?FrancisUrquhart said:
“A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on.”CarlottaVance said:Unraveled by lunchtime..
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/factcheck-corbyns-nhs-for-sale-claims/0 -
In which case why not vote Lib Dems? At least then its sending a clear message about his Remain position and a clear message to Labour to sort themselves out.ralphmalph said:
He is in the Tewkesbury Constituency, they weigh Tory votes.Pulpstar said:
Well given the entirety of Cheltenham and its environs is a Lib Dem/Tory contest, the Tories will be very happy with him voting Labour.Casino_Royale said:
For him to answer but he wants to frustrate Leave and (I think) he’s also a visceral heart and soul Labour voter, as Jonathan is too.Pulpstar said:
Why is @Peter_the_Punter backing the reds - I thought he lived in the Cotswolds which is the sort of seat Labour are never going to win in a million years ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.
If it’s part of you and how you define yourself and your identity it’s much easier to disassociate voting Labour from its leader, even if it’s Chairman Mao.1 -
You sound just itching to take over the campaign.BluerBlue said:What is it with Labour and dodgy dossiers? The Tories should get a senior figure to call a press conference and hand out printed details of every meeting and every supportive statement Corbyn has ever had in relation to Britain's enemies. It would be a long list, and have the merit of actually being true...
0 -
Interesting that Con has chosen someone as low profile as Sunak.
Does this tee him up for a move into a very senior position - and should he now be considered a decent possibility for next Con leader.
I reckon his previous media performances must have been tested with focus groups to get chosen for this.0 -
After most people have voted Tory or Labour, we can get back to the usual business of decrying our broken political system and bemoaning that we have only two tired old parties to choose from.ralphmalph said:
He is in the Tewkesbury Constituency, they weigh Tory votes.Pulpstar said:
Well given the entirety of Cheltenham and its environs is a Lib Dem/Tory contest, the Tories will be very happy with him voting Labour.Casino_Royale said:
For him to answer but he wants to frustrate Leave and (I think) he’s also a visceral heart and soul Labour voter, as Jonathan is too.Pulpstar said:
Why is @Peter_the_Punter backing the reds - I thought he lived in the Cotswolds which is the sort of seat Labour are never going to win in a million years ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m also on the bet that Labour get between 35-39.99% of the vote, which I still think is cracking value on exchange at over 4/1.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is why I have been warning about the big Tories leads that are based upon the working class Northerners breaking the habit of a lifetime and voting Tory because of Brexit / Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:This thread today is a good example of why Labour are creeping up in the polls.
Well respected posters like @OldKingCole @Peter_the_Punter and @Jonathan are going to vote Labour even though they detest Corbyn.
It explains a lot, and also why the far-Left won’t be expunged from the Labour Party as a result.
Enough of them will put all that aside and convince themselves that their local candidate is actually one of the alright ones and help keep Jezza in check.
If it’s part of you and how you define yourself and your identity it’s much easier to disassociate voting Labour from its leader, even if it’s Chairman Mao.1 -
Endillion said:
Ah, the unedifying prospect of six white people telling a BAME MP that it's his party that's the racist one.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson and Corbyn have shat it over the next debate:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1199669183837081601
I'm sure he'll eventually be derided as another Oxford PPE clone, but I really like Sunak and think he's got a good future. And (Sturgeon aside) that's a pretty gentle field he's up against.
For betters, the key takeaway will be how well RLB does in the leading slot.
It could be the night the next Labour leader is decided. Or not.0
