I simply can't understand how Labour are 1/5 in both Ilford seats - both prices are absurd. Labour should be 1/20 to hold Ilford South and shouldn't even be favourites to hold North.
I don't like betting odds on but the 1/5 for Labour to hold South is very tempting while the 3/1 for the Conservatives to take North is also worth a punt.
You mean Labour should be favourites in Ilford North?
Please try and read what I said before jumping in.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
The UK has to do a lot more - as does every other country. You're right it's a global problem.
But just trumpeting "we're not the problem" is why there's been so little progress.
So little progress? Again, look how far emissions have been cut since the peak in the 1970s.
That is a fair point. I'm old enough to remember learning about acid rain in school geography lessons circa 1990. British coal-fired power stations used to chuck out so much carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide that they created toxic clouds that, basically, dissolved trees in Norway.
Earlier this year, Britain had the first recorded days since the advent of widespread electrical power in which 0% of the electricity in the National Grid came from burning coal. If that's not progress I'm not sure what is.
Ditto. Its funny we never hear about acid rain anymore, nor the hole in the ozone layer.
I also remember learning in science classes how in Britain large percentages of moths evolved from light to dark to light again because of the pollution that existed in the past and how cleaned up the country is now relative to the past.
Not so much they learnt, just that in some species such as Peppered Moth, the black form carbonaria was far less obvious to predating birds against sooty walls. The genes were still there and once we cleaned up the buildings, the black and white forms could again find better camouflaged places to rest. The carbonaria form is now again quite scarce (I've had a couple in the garden over the past six years).
More upsetting for keen horticulturalists, the reduction of sulphur compounds in the atmosphere is greatly increasing the incidence of fungal infections such as rose black spot.
Nothing for allotment holders in the tory manifesto. Toffs one and all.
Black spot has always been and remains a problem in Devon.
Ever since the days of Robert Louis Stevenson indeed
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
I simply can't understand how Labour are 1/5 in both Ilford seats - both prices are absurd. Labour should be 1/20 to hold Ilford South and shouldn't even be favourites to hold North.
I don't like betting odds on but the 1/5 for Labour to hold South is very tempting while the 3/1 for the Conservatives to take North is also worth a punt.
You mean Labour should be favourites in Ilford North?
Please try and read what I said before jumping in.
You wrote: "Labour should be 1/20 to hold Ilford South and shouldn't even be favourites to hold North."
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Thing is Labour can have all sorts of popular individual policies... The problem is that no one actually believes they can deliver them.
And if Bozos lies begin to grate with the public then they might also start thinking he won’t deliver his pledges either . It’s all well and good him trashing Labour but he’s got to look trustworthy on the other side .
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Thing is Labour can have all sorts of popular individual policies... The problem is that no one actually believes they can deliver them.
And if Bozos lies begin to grate with the public then they might also start thinking he won’t deliver his pledges either . It’s all well and good him trashing Labour but he’s got to look trustworthy on the other side .
Why? I am sure he would be content with a five and a half year Premiership. Anyway a landslide could allow him to future proof the Tories.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
The so called 50,000 new nurses pledge from Bozo is another bare faced lie .
18,500 of those are currently working in the NHS and all they’re doing is trying to get them to stay on when they’re expected to be leaving .
Reducing the rate at which you have to replace staff is not to be sneezed at. There is a similar problem in teaching with (I think this is right, but I’m not looking it up) 50% of teachers leaving after five years. If you can reduce this then the teachers in each school become more experienced on average and the not inconsiderable costs of recruitment are reduced.
I’m not saying it’s easy of course, and relying on it for a third of the total seems optimistic.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Yes, and the snap judgement everywhere was that free broadband was going to be ultra popular and sink the Tories.
People are much smarter than Labour are giving them credit for.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Yes. I should think you'll find them easily. ~3.7m women and ~ £15,000 average.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
The UK has to do a lot more - as does every other country. You're right it's a global problem.
But just trumpeting "we're not the problem" is why there's been so little progress.
So little progress? Again, look how far emissions have been cut since the peak in the 1970s.
That is a fair point. I'm old enough to remember learning about acid rain in school geography lessons circa 1990. British coal-fired power stations used to chuck out so much carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide that they created toxic clouds that, basically, dissolved trees in Norway.
Earlier this year, Britain had the first recorded days since the advent of widespread electrical power in which 0% of the electricity in the National Grid came from burning coal. If that's not progress I'm not sure what is.
I'm old enough that I was taught that global warning and global cooling were caused by the earth not having a stable orbit round the sun.. Moves in it warms, moves out it cools. Hence several ice ages each ended by a period of global warming.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
15k x 3.8m women
For christ’s sake don’t give Diane Abbott the task of calculating that.
It's not good for democracy that the parties are knowingly promulgating nonsense in their manifestos. Even in 2017, this did not happen. It suggests a political class out of touch and out of control, which is what Brexit was meant to stop. (But Cummings always tricks people into thinking that ceding political power means gaining control - which is a fantasy.)
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
You do know what the actual number is by the end of the 2024, don't you?
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
If you believe that you believe in leprechauns but so what
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
Probably thoroughly unfair but I see Helena BC as the female actor equivalent of Hugh Grant - quite good in a specific character but can only do that character (with a nagging suspicion that all one is seeing is a slightly exaggerated version of themselves).
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
Printing is always an option.
Or create a new currency. Corbyn Credits?
Corbyt-coin
Brilliant. Redeemable at your local Red Star store where you can purchase any number of Venezuelan, Cuban or North Korean goods.
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
If they get a decent majority why would they do that? It's a guaranteed 5 years
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
15k x 3.8m women
For christ’s sake don’t give Diane Abbott the task of calculating that.
Err is the answer 60 squillion ... or £7.50
The amount of jokes I get about her - easily the most ridiculed politician in the UK
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
Apparently the reaction to it has higher ups at the studio worried for the next cast change. They're annoyed that Claire Foy and Matt Smith were so bloody good in seasons 1 and 2. It's a very tough act to follow and, unfortunately, Olivia Colman doesn't measure up. Hopefully she will hone in the performance for season 4 but she didn't make a believable queen this time around. With Claire Foy I was able to forget that it wasn't actually the queen I was watching, I didn't have any moment like that with Colman on screen which is a shame because I really hoped she would nail it.
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
Probably thoroughly unfair but I see Helena BC as the female actor equivalent of Hugh Grant - quite good in a specific character but can only do that character (with a nagging suspicion that all one is seeing is a slightly exaggerated version of themselves).
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
Printing is always an option.
Or create a new currency. Corbyn Credits?
Corbyt-coin
Excellent. Fresh air clearly leads to sharp wit.
Not the blockchain behind Corbyt-coin coin you have to worry about.
Just in case there was anyone still under the illusion that the DataPraxis MRP results were "the YouGov MRP" here is the final sentence from their webpage
The results here are modelled by DataPraxis, not by YouGov, who will be producing their own separate estimates.
I know, they seem small in comparison to Labour's trillion pound bill, but it's still a lot of money.
Do you honestly think potholes deserve more money than childcare though?
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should oppose both subsiding care pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Yes, but nothing in the way of costings. It's a completely unfunded policy.
Be fair now. McDonnell says the funding is a very special arrangement. Borrowing in other words.
You shouldn't traduce McDonnell in that way. It might not be borrowing.
Printing is always an option.
Or create a new currency. Corbyn Credits?
Corbyt-coin
Brilliant. Redeemable at your local Red Star store where you can purchase any number of Venezuelan, Cuban or North Korean goods.
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
Probably thoroughly unfair but I see Helena BC as the female actor equivalent of Hugh Grant - quite good in a specific character but can only do that character (with a nagging suspicion that all one is seeing is a slightly exaggerated version of themselves).
Did you see her in Fight Club? Or does nobody talk about that?
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
One was leaked today, Labour closing the gap by one point, to 30, Tories on 41
Back to betting rather than the bear-pit for a moment.
I'm still sitting on my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 - should I cash out now and take a reasonable profit or should I stick it out? I think 360-380 is the range and I'd prefer more than 380 for obvious reasons - might happen but less certain than I was.
Looking at the election battles in East London, I can back Labour to win East Ham at 1/100 with Paddy and Betfair, not a bad bet and if you have £100k lying around and you want to have £101k on 13/12 it's as much a certainty as anything in this life.
The three seats which interest me in my neck of the woods are as follows:
Dagenham & Rainham: - Jon Cruddas is defending a majority of 4,652 and the Conservatives need a 5% swing which is right on the mark of the polls. The Tories are marginally favourites and you can bet 9/10 with Bet365 while Labour are Evens with Sky Bet which looks tempting. Many firms have both parties odds on suggesting this is going to be very close. For now, I'll stay out.
Ilford South: Mike Gapes held for Labour last time with a majority of 31.647 but he has defected to and is running as a Change UK - TIG candidate. He is on offer at 3s generally with Labour at 1/5. It's my experience MPs have an exaggerated view of their "personal" vote and I can't see Gapes holding this seat - indeed, I think he'll finish third. Labour at 1/5 looks a cracking bet.
Ilford North: Against the run of play, this was a rare Conservative loss in 2015 when Wes Streeting got home by 589 votes. Despite no UKIP candidate in 2017, Streeting stretched his majority to nearly 10,000. There is a BXP candidate this time and Labour are 1/5 with the Conservatives at 3s.
I simply can't understand how Labour are 1/5 in both Ilford seats - both prices are absurd. Labour should be 1/20 to hold Ilford South and shouldn't even be favourites to hold North.
I don't like betting odds on but the 1/5 for Labour to hold South is very tempting while the 3/1 for the Conservatives to take North is also worth a punt.
You think there is a chance of the Conservatives gaining Ilford North ???
I really can't see how they can overturn a near 10k majority in a seat which is moving demographically away from them.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain.
What could possibly go wrong with a December election?
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
If they get a decent majority why would they do that? It's a guaranteed 5 years
Because they'd be able to go to the polls earlier if the opinion polling looked right i.e. revert to the typical tactic of looking for an election after around 4 years.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain.
What could possibly go wrong with a December election?
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain.
What could possibly go wrong with a December election?
In the words of Blackadder....“looks like some kind of hat might be in order.”
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Will the question include the information that it will cost the public an extra £58 billion in uncosted borrowing and / or taxes? Because that seems like a relevant piece of context, no?
Are there some workings behind the £58bn?
Number of women affected times the average amount of compensation.
Wow thanks for that insight!
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
One was leaked today, Labour closing the gap by one point, to 30, Tories on 41
It seems to have been pulled from Britain Elects . Could it be a fake poll or is it correct but just leaked . Do we have confirmation yet.
For that matter were Greta and the XRs protesting at Chinese embassies when this was reported in September 2018:
Building work has restarted at hundreds of Chinese coal-fired power stations, according to an analysis of satellite imagery.
The research, carried out by green campaigners CoalSwarm, suggests that 259 gigawatts of new capacity are under development in China.
The authors say this is the same capacity to produce electricity as the entire US coal fleet.
The study says government attempts to cancel many plants have failed.
According to this study, there was a surge in new coal projects approved at provincial level in China between 2014 and 2016. This happened because of a decentralisation programme that shifted authority over coal plant construction approvals to local authorities.
The report says that at present China has 993 gigawatts of coal power capacity, but the approved new plants would increase this by 25%.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
He's an interesting one to watch for sure. He seems quite cynical about the polls in general, probably because of how much he was ridiculed last time.
Aren't we due another Survation poll or have I missed one this weekend?
I know, they seem small in comparison to Labour's trillion pound bill, but it's still a lot of money.
Do you honestly think potholes deserve more money than childcare though?
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should oppose both subsiding care pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
I know, they seem small in comparison to Labour's trillion pound bill, but it's still a lot of money.
Do you honestly think potholes deserve more money than childcare though?
As a childless singleton that doesn't drive I don't care about either. But anybody claiming to be green should oppose both subsiding care pollution and over population.
I personally think we should be encouraging the use of public transport as much as possible and phasing out cars entirely - that should be the ultimate goal IMHO
Not a fan of electric cars?
They're better than petrol and diesel cars - and if there is no reasonable public transport they seem like a good compromise. But fundamentally we need to transition away from private transport.
And rely on the State anytime we want to travel. Marvellous.
Plus the state knowing exactly where you are going all the time. Spooky!
Point of order - based on my trains into London, knowing I’ve caught one tells you very little little about either where I am or where I am going.
Are you sure your Trainline app doesn't tell Google?
No that only tells you where I should be and where I’m meant to be going.
"I'll tell you a riddle. You're waiting for a train, a train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure. But it doesn't matter. How can it not matter to you where the train will take you?"
If you are a sad train loon?
Actually, the answer was: "Because we'll be together!"
Rather slow and nothing like as good as the first two.
Wilson and Heath are good though. The episodes slow and tedious, except Aberfan.
The trouble is probably that as we come up to date, the writers lose historical perspective and start including all sorts of trivial incidents that they happen to remember. We have seen this with other series too.
It's not just that. It's the casting.
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
Probably thoroughly unfair but I see Helena BC as the female actor equivalent of Hugh Grant - quite good in a specific character but can only do that character (with a nagging suspicion that all one is seeing is a slightly exaggerated version of themselves).
Did you see her in Fight Club? Or does nobody talk about that?
As I said, probably unfair. But feelings are more important than facts now....
Scanned the Conservative manifesto. Lots of wriggle room in most of it but emphatic that they will scrap the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That should get a lot of thumbs ups on here.
Sure, but Labour are promising that too.
I'm more worried that the Tories vaguely promise they want to look at the relationship between government, parliament and the courts. Given how their most fervent Tories on here reacted to the prorogation decision - immediately saying it would mean political appointments in future - and given how Boris reacted, it looks like code for 'the court will feel my wrath'.
I wonder whether Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation are doing some polling including a question on the Waspi women . Going by his tweet he thinks this is likely to hurt the Tories.
Anyone who believes an unfunded £58bn pledge made after the manifesto was published should be too thick to vote.
Anyone who believes 350m for the NHS should be too thick to vote.
Comments
18,500 of those are currently working in the NHS and all they’re doing is trying to get them to stay on when they’re expected to be leaving .
Even better ;-)
The Frances Coppola demolition of the Waspi Women promise was amusing - so rushed out that they haven't even identified the correct group of women.
But it is improved productivity in the Hail Mary Pass factory.
"Labour should be 1/20 to hold Ilford South and shouldn't even be favourites to hold North."
I presumed it was a typo?
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1198377963726786563
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1198378741216563201
https://twitter.com/JohnSands17/status/1198651556553535490
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1198654141645705216
https://twitter.com/ThomasBridge3/status/1198676729247805441
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1198676774713991169
I was rather wondering if anyone has the stats on numbers impacted and avereage amount per person.
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2019-labours-58bn-pledge-to-right-waspi-injustice-11869005
I’m not saying it’s easy of course, and relying on it for a third of the total seems optimistic.
People are much smarter than Labour are giving them credit for.
~3.7m women and ~ £15,000 average.
............. Low Predicted High
Labour 123 - 202 - 281
LD 13 - 20 - 62
SNP 20 - 41 - 47
Con 247 - 365 - 448
448!!!! lolz
Con 43%
Lab 29%
LD 15%
SNP/PC 4%
BRX 4%
Grn 3%
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Olivia Coleman gets better as the series goes on but you still know it's her.
And Helena Bonham-Carter is just Helena Bonham-Carter, as always. You're never convinced for a second she's Margaret.
Having said that, Tobias Menzies is superb as Philip.
HINT: way more than £350m per week.,,,,,
(Admittedly there's more chance of Man U winning the Premiership but hey-ho!)
It shows just how much error there is in predicting seat totals.
Printing is always an option.
To dream, the impossible dream.....
The amount of jokes I get about her - easily the most ridiculed politician in the UK
It's the blockheads.....
The results here are modelled by DataPraxis, not by YouGov, who will be producing their own separate estimates.
Not that I'm thinking of anyone in specific
I really can't see how they can overturn a near 10k majority in a seat which is moving demographically away from them.
You're right about Ilford South though.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec
The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain.
What could possibly go wrong with a December election?
1923?
While the rest of the world has cut coal-based electricity over the past 18 months, China has added enough to power 31 million homes.
That's according to a study that says China is now in the process of building or reviving coal equivalent to the EU's entire generating capacity.
China is also financing around a quarter of all proposed coal plants outside its borders.
Researchers say the surge is a major threat to the Paris climate targets.
China's reliance on coal as a key step in developing the economy led to the fabled "one coal plant a week" building programme between 2006 and 2015.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50474824
Building work has restarted at hundreds of Chinese coal-fired power stations, according to an analysis of satellite imagery.
The research, carried out by green campaigners CoalSwarm, suggests that 259 gigawatts of new capacity are under development in China.
The authors say this is the same capacity to produce electricity as the entire US coal fleet.
The study says government attempts to cancel many plants have failed.
According to this study, there was a surge in new coal projects approved at provincial level in China between 2014 and 2016. This happened because of a decentralisation programme that shifted authority over coal plant construction approvals to local authorities.
The report says that at present China has 993 gigawatts of coal power capacity, but the approved new plants would increase this by 25%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45640706
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre_Metro_Operations
I'm still angry with her dad for never getting around to introducing me after saying he would several years ago...
I'm more worried that the Tories vaguely promise they want to look at the relationship between government, parliament and the courts. Given how their most fervent Tories on here reacted to the prorogation decision - immediately saying it would mean political appointments in future - and given how Boris reacted, it looks like code for 'the court will feel my wrath'.