politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa
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If Labour are under pressure there, they’re in big trouble. Not only is it a bellwether, but it suggests that the higher turnout that rescued them last time isn’t going to be there this time.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting Bristol NW is the one Barnesian and I were crunching the numbers on back and forth yesterday and came to the same conclusion.Andy_JS said:0 -
It’s three weeks until the final 72 hours of the campaign. You can add those extra 3 days in if you really like.ThomastheCat said:
3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.Casino_Royale said:
This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.nunu2 said:
Wow.brokenwheel said:
Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.SunnyJim said:
I was waiting for Survation......
As I said the leave north is going Tory.
So chill.
A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.
My point is a lot can change in a short time very quickly, and not a single vote has been cast yet.0 -
News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html0 -
I think we would have remembered "Were you up for Brown?"Sandpit said:
Damn, you're right, and too late to edit now. Why did I think he did stand?ydoethur said:
No he didn’t. The Labour candidate was Kenny Selbie.Sandpit said:
For everything that can be said of Mrs May, she does genuinely care about public service, and representing the people of Maidenhead.eristdoof said:The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.
For all his many faults, Gordon Brown stood in 2015 too, although he was overcome by the SNP wave at that election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkcaldy_and_Cowdenbeath_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Indeed, as Mark Webber will testify.Nigelb said:
But not Vettel’s first waltz with a teammate....Sandpit said:
I think that's the first time I ever remember two Ferraris taking each other out, although they both got involved in a big one on the first lap in Singapore a couple of years ago. Rule number one of motorsport - don't crash into your team mate!ydoethur said:
Not sure Vettel and Leclerc would described it quite like that!Sandpit said:the various different plans came together at the end.
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The forthcoming YouGov had questions aimed directly at that.SunnyJim said:
This must be a horrible election for southern remainers.Andy_JS said:
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
Brexit or Corbyn.
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.0 -
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MaxPB said:
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
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"Is that technical support? I can't get my F1 race interesting any more...."Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I was really surprised a full safety car was deemed necessary.
I think that was more about trying to make things exciting at the end rather than safety.
"Have you tried turning the race off and on again?"1 -
Unlikely IMO unless there's only a narrow victory.IanB2 said:
The forthcoming YouGov had questions aimed directly at that.SunnyJim said:
This must be a horrible election for southern remainers.Andy_JS said:
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
Brexit or Corbyn.
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.
A healthy majority would be the Tories first really healthy majority in decades (2015 was an unexpected majority but just a slim one). Combined with the PM having been the face of Brexit and the most irreconcilable bastards of 2019 being out of the party now ... I think Johnson if he has the numbers will have more than enough political capital to get his deal through, negotiate an FTA and get that through.
I think the FTA if Britain has a stable government will be less complicated than people think. The Europeans are fed up with Brexit too.0 -
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?0 -
Revoke East Dunbartonshire would be hilarious.MarqueeMark said:
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I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?0 -
Buck up, its been a good week for the Tories but theres a long way to go.murali_s said:Polls say it all at the moment.
It's now a question of how large the majority is going to be.
Progressive politics in the country needs a reset. The right / hard-right are cruising!
The UK is going to pay a huge price and it will unravel very fast. You have been warned.0 -
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.0
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Boris is clearly Marmite. He provokes reactions. They are not always positive -especially amongst ladies of a cetain age. But you do also hear great enthusiasm - "Boris is the best thing that has happened to politics since Maggie!" More intriguing is the often heard comment "Boris makes me laugh...." And it is generally "with", but I'm sure there must be some "ats" too...DavidL said:
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
Either way, nobody laughs at Corbyn..... "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone...."0 -
It's treating all migrants equally.SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
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What dog whistling?SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
This has been the most honest and liberal campaign on migration in at least a decade. No more talk of slashing numbers to the tens of thousands.0 -
Postal votes going out on Friday in my areaDecrepiterJohnL said:
Also eight days to register.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And 8 days to postal voting commencingThomastheCat said:
3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.Casino_Royale said:
This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.nunu2 said:
Wow.brokenwheel said:
Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.SunnyJim said:
I was waiting for Survation......
As I said the leave north is going Tory.
So chill.
A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote0 -
Boris is the only Tory I think who could win a majority at the moment.DavidL said:
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
See too the data below
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196145937028128769?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196147262411431937?s=200 -
Pretty poor interview with Leadsom on R4.0
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Brown announced he was standing down in December six months before the election. Those of a cynical disposition say it was because he knew he would lose.ydoethur said:
He remained an active and hardworking backbench constituency MP. So in a sense you were right. But he made the decision not to stand in 2015 quite well in advance - I think even before the 2014 referendum.Sandpit said:
Damn, you're right, and too late to edit now. Why did I think he did stand?ydoethur said:
No he didn’t. The Labour candidate was Kenny Selbie.Sandpit said:
For everything that can be said of Mrs May, she does genuinely care about public service, and representing the people of Maidenhead.eristdoof said:The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.
For all his many faults, Gordon Brown stood in 2015 too, although he was overcome by the SNP wave at that election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkcaldy_and_Cowdenbeath_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
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The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
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No, it's based on our vote becoming less efficient because of the BP withdrawing from however many marginal seats and all currently held Con ones. Additionally, we may build up big vote share in some northern towns and not see any kind of real breakthrough in terms of seats.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.1 -
VW makes a car called the e-up! Who knew? Is it selling well in Yorks?1
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What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.0 -
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.MaxPB said:
It's treating all migrants equally.SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
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Mr. Mark, the race was shaping up pretty nicely anyway.
Mr. B, true, but Vettel's far from alone in that. Hamilton and Rosberg collided at Belgium and Spain in 2016, I think (certainly that year for the latter), and I believe Damon Hill, whilst leading for Jordan but being caught by team mate Ralf Schumacher, essentially told the team that if his team mate tried to pass him there would be a massive crash.0 -
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.squareroot2 said:
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.0 -
So even Gold Standard Survation now has the Tories lead at 1983 landslide levelsSunnyJim said:0 -
It's a shame that Boris wasn't attended to by the vet.Arthur said:I'm watching the ITV film about Jennifer Arcuri and Boris Johnson. She's quite a character. There's been no mention yet that at the time he was in a relationship with this "highly persuasive" foreigner, he was not only Mayor of London but also attending Cabinet meetings... So the relationship would have been vetted, right?
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Also, what level of mps sees boris resign?0
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So what controls would you apply?SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.MaxPB said:
It's treating all migrants equally.SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
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Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
I'm afraid I have no skin in that particular game.nunu2 said:
If you want to know which side is losing, check out who is trying to "un-skew" the polls.camel said:Survation: on normal weightings, undecideds split 49:124 male:female.
Make of that what you will.
Labour's polling for males is half that of the Cons. 18.3% : 39.7%
Labour's polling for females is on par. 24.5% : 25.0 %
I think the undecideds, should they make up their mind, will add a little to the Labour polling here.0 -
Boris is a bit Marmite but he is the only politician around who can genuinely make people laugh at something funny he says or does and cheer people up.MarqueeMark said:
Boris is clearly Marmite. He provokes reactions. They are not always positive -especially amongst ladies of a cetain age. But you do also hear great enthusiasm - "Boris is the best thing that has happened to politics since Maggie!" More intriguing is the often heard comment "Boris makes me laugh...." And it is generally "with", but I'm sure there must be some "ats" too...DavidL said:
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
Either way, nobody laughs at Corbyn..... "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone...."
Its a pretty compelling proposition against the labour "everything is terrible " message.1 -
Indeed. If the lesson Labour learn from crushing defeat is to pick a remainer version of Jez then they will be out of power for another cycle taking us to potentially 2029 before they are in with a shot of power.kle4 said:
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.squareroot2 said:
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.0 -
Insinuating EU citizens living in the UK do not contribute to the funding of the NHS is not about controls, it is about dog whistling. But if it were down to me I would continue with reciprocity. It serves us very well. Without it, there will be far more elderly people requiring NHS treatment than is currently the case.MaxPB said:
So what controls would you apply?SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.MaxPB said:
It's treating all migrants equally.SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
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Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.1 -
Nah, he'd hang on with 320-odd.MaxPB said:
Anything that is lower than 326.kle4 said:Also, what level of mps sees boris resign?
Although I think your Nowcast is pretty much spot-on. A Conservative majority of 80-odd, with Labour sub-200 and the LDs in the mid-20s.
The longer-term danger is (simply) that I don't think Boris Johnson is cut out for the job of PM. I think he'll always choose the easy way out, over dealing with deeper problems. It will always be easier to cut taxes and increase spending, rather than to make hard decisions.3 -
https://bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-50409441More bar chart fun:0
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Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html1 -
So no controls for some and treating migrants differently depending on which country they come from? Tell, me who is the xenophobe?SouthamObserver said:
Insinuating EU citizens living in the UK do not contribute to the funding of the NHS is not about controls, it is about dog whistling. But if it were down to me I would continue with reciprocity. It serves us very well. Without it, there will be far more elderly people requiring NHS treatment than is currently the case.MaxPB said:
So what controls would you apply?SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.MaxPB said:
It's treating all migrants equally.SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
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If theres one thing proven recently its that LDs overtaking labour is very far from inevitable even with good conditions.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.0
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High Court to rule today on whether Swinson and Corbyn must be included in first TV debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-504509020 -
Boris, Trump, Berlusconi -- you may have hit upon something there!alb1on said:
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html0 -
You omitted to mention any Labour leaders in your list of dissemblers....SouthamObserver said:It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
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I suspect that sexual promiscuity is a definite advantage in seeking high political office.alb1on said:
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html0 -
If not then thanks to FPTP the Tories can hope to be in office at least another decade if Labour stick with its hard left leadershipkle4 said:
If theres one thing proven recently its that LDs overtaking labour is very far from inevitable even with good conditions.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
Right now, I wouldn’t want to predict Tory seats any more accurately than between 290 to 410.
Helpful, I know.0 -
See, Jim Hacker at least was able to get the shagger candidate to stand down.alb1on said:
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html0 -
Both are now the Tories main challengers based on constituency polls, certainly LucianaMaxPB said:
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
Yes, but I don't think they will win. We did the Ashcroft constituency polls to death in 2015 and the national swing proved to be a much bigger wave than anything happening locally.HYUFD said:
Both are now the Tories main challengers based on constituency polls, certainly LucianaMaxPB said:
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
Two friends of mine in Golders Green (Conservative, apolitical, Leavers, but definitely soft-Leavers) have just told me they're voting for Luciana. (This is a single anecdote, as they're husband and wife.)MaxPB said:
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
No particular reason, but they hate Corbyn, and she seems "like a nice lass".
Which just goes to show, voters are a strange bunch.0 -
Treating people differently based on reciprocity is not xenophobic, Max.MaxPB said:
So no controls for some and treating migrants differently depending on which country they come from? Tell, me who is the xenophobe?SouthamObserver said:
Insinuating EU citizens living in the UK do not contribute to the funding of the NHS is not about controls, it is about dog whistling. But if it were down to me I would continue with reciprocity. It serves us very well. Without it, there will be far more elderly people requiring NHS treatment than is currently the case.MaxPB said:
So what controls would you apply?SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.MaxPB said:
It's treating all migrants equally.SouthamObserver said:Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
0 -
Blair was accused of it with some sort of tarot card lady iircrcs1000 said:
I suspect that sexual promiscuity is a definite advantage in seeking high political office.alb1on said:
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html0 -
As not a lawyer it seems like if they are required to be given time theres no reason the broadcasters have to make it the same programme.HYUFD said:High Court to rule today on whether Swinson and Corbyn must be included in first TV debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-504509020 -
This isn’t really remarkable at all. Most Conservative voters by definition live in Conservative seats, and there is now no Brexit candidate for them to vote for.HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory I think who could win a majority at the moment.DavidL said:
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
See too the data below
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196145937028128769?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196147262411431937?s=200 -
Yep, if Jezza doesn't get to be PM on the 13, or very soon after, he's off.kle4 said:
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.squareroot2 said:
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.0 -
UNS will almost certainly get seat numbers approximately right. Where the seats fall will be another matter. I would be surprised if either Chuka or Luciana were MPs after the election. (Not staggered, which is a 10% chance or less, but surprised, which is about 25-35% chance.)MaxPB said:
Yes, but I don't think they will win. We did the Ashcroft constituency polls to death in 2015 and the national swing proved to be a much bigger wave than anything happening locally.HYUFD said:
Both are now the Tories main challengers based on constituency polls, certainly LucianaMaxPB said:
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.HYUFD said:
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.IanB2 said:MaxPB said:I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.0 -
Ahem ........ Not just you, you know. Cyclefree Junior put me onto him at around the same time.rottenborough said:Cough, cough.
May I just mention that I blew the trumpet on here for Buttigieg many months ago following a rave review of his embryonic chances from Axelrod?
110/1 at the time.
0 -
Also as not a lawyer, I'd predict that if they were included, Boris would use it as an excuse to drop out.kle4 said:
As not a lawyer it seems like if they are required to be given time theres no reason the broadcasters have to make it the same programme.HYUFD said:High Court to rule today on whether Swinson and Corbyn must be included in first TV debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-504509020 -
My assumption is that Johnson will be PM. See the first sentence.squareroot2 said:
You omitted to mention any Labour leaders in your list of dissemblers....SouthamObserver said:It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
0 -
A list of one politician and one prince but in the interests of balance, there was Tony Bliar.squareroot2 said:
You omitted to mention any Labour leaders in your list of dissemblers....SouthamObserver said:It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
0 -
The test is balance. Balance is measured on at least two factors - crudely, quantity and quality. The former can be satisfied by exposure on different programmes. The latter is less likely to be met in this way. But before you get to that point there is the issue of who is entitled to balance? It cannot apply to all as that would bring in the fringe parties. So a real question for the courts is where you draw the line.kle4 said:
As not a lawyer it seems like if they are required to be given time theres no reason the broadcasters have to make it the same programme.HYUFD said:High Court to rule today on whether Swinson and Corbyn must be included in first TV debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50450902
Clearly the SNP and LDs can make different cases. The LDs have to show that balance requires their inclusion in the test nationally. The SNP can make a case specific to Scotland and could argue that any 2 man debate must not be shown in Scotland as a solution.0 -
Jacob Rees-Mogg is parliament's leading chocoholic, reportedly addicted to Creme Eggs, and chocolate soufflés at Claridges.Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html0 -
I don't think those posts reflect well on either of you as human beings.Philip_Thompson said:
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.1 -
Mr. HYUFD, surely Corbyn *is* in the first debate?
Also, chocolate is delicious.0 -
Even if he does, I think. Corbyn has reportedly wanted to step down for some time. He is also getting on a bit. I doubt he'd serve a full term.Slackbladder said:
Yep, if Jezza doesn't get to be PM on the 13, or very soon after, he's off.kle4 said:
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.squareroot2 said:
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.0 -
One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area - not perhaps quite at the constituency level, but close. How should that work in terms of the different spending limits for national/constituency campaigns? The Tories were in trouble for this sort of thing in a different way in 2015, are we seeing a repeat in 2019?
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.0 -
Whoever is putting them out, my wish in this election is that those using these wilfully distorted bar charts on their election material would receive just one vote.Fysics_Teacher said:https://bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-50409441More bar chart fun:
0 -
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.Pulpstar said:I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
0 -
A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
0 -
Stop slagging off Hartlepool. It's the Lucerne of the North.Roger said:A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1455635/Two-women-bloodied-fight-Brexit-UKIP-campaign.html0 -
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.Dura_Ace said:
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.Pulpstar said:I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
0 -
Is Corbyn trying to get out?HYUFD said:High Court to rule today on whether Swinson and Corbyn must be included in first TV debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-504509020 -
Some recent Labour announcements seem almost calculated to lose votes. You have to wonder if some of these public school millionaires are secret Tories.Roger said:A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.0 -
Labour promising to abolish all student debt might change matters.Casino_Royale said:
This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.nunu2 said:
Wow.brokenwheel said:
Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.SunnyJim said:
I was waiting for Survation......
As I said the leave north is going Tory.
So chill.
A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.DecrepiterJohnL said:
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.eristdoof said:
Thumbs up to that last comment.camel said:
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.Andy_JS said:
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.brokenwheel said:Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.1 -
There is no way that a FTA will be negotiated in 12 months. No chance. Not happening.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely IMO unless there's only a narrow victory.IanB2 said:
The forthcoming YouGov had questions aimed directly at that.SunnyJim said:
This must be a horrible election for southern remainers.Andy_JS said:
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
Brexit or Corbyn.
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.
A healthy majority would be the Tories first really healthy majority in decades (2015 was an unexpected majority but just a slim one). Combined with the PM having been the face of Brexit and the most irreconcilable bastards of 2019 being out of the party now ... I think Johnson if he has the numbers will have more than enough political capital to get his deal through, negotiate an FTA and get that through.
I think the FTA if Britain has a stable government will be less complicated than people think. The Europeans are fed up with Brexit too.0 -
A lifetime of deep cover?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Some recent Labour announcements seem almost calculated to lose votes. You have to wonder if some of these public school millionaires are secret Tories.Roger said:A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
Slightly more likely is they don't undestand that their retail offer is shite.0 -
-
Sorry whether Swinson and Sturgeon must be includedFysics_Teacher said:
Is Corbyn trying to get out?HYUFD said:High Court to rule today on whether Swinson and Corbyn must be included in first TV debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-504509020 -
Yes, it probably should be a scandal, and the Conservatives do have form. Already they have been caught not declaring Facebook adverts. Given CCHQ hired NZ consultants specifically for the social media campaign, an upsurge in activity is not surprising. Using fake advocacy groups does seem a step too far; is it CCHQ or the Russians?NoSpaceName said:One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area - not perhaps quite at the constituency level, but close. How should that work in terms of the different spending limits for national/constituency campaigns? The Tories were in trouble for this sort of thing in a different way in 2015, are we seeing a repeat in 2019?
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.
Though last time, iirc, Labour was more Twitter than Facebook.0 -
The Daily Mail has caught up with the Independent and now won't show me things unless I disengage my ad blocker.Dura_Ace said:
Stop slagging off Hartlepool. It's the Lucerne of the North.Roger said:A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1455635/Two-women-bloodied-fight-Brexit-UKIP-campaign.html
Well sod that.0 -
The Tories were polling in 3rd after May extended, even before Farage pulled out in Tory seats the Tories were polling a clear firstnot_on_fire said:
This isn’t really remarkable at all. Most Conservative voters by definition live in Conservative seats, and there is now no Brexit candidate for them to vote for.HYUFD said:
Boris is the only Tory I think who could win a majority at the moment.DavidL said:
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.DavidL said:
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.MaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
See too the data below
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196145937028128769?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196147262411431937?s=200 -
Swing of 6% from Labour to the Tories with Survation today, swing of 3% from the Tories to the LDs.OnlyLivingBoy said:
On UNS that would see the Tories gain 58 Labour seats and the LDs gain just 3 Tory seats
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat0 -
Yes - chocolate. Proper chocolate, that is. Dark - in bars, which you break off into pieces and eat slowly alongside an espresso coffee at the end of a good meal.Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Not some disgusting sugary brown powder, laughably called “chocolate” and poured into a milky coffee. Not Cadbury’s crime (I meant to say “Creme” but “crime” is a wonderfully appropriate typo) eggs - which is just glutinous muck fit only for very young children and, apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The “Foresta” chocolate from this shop in Naples (https://gay-odin.it/categorie-html.html?gclid=Cj0KCQiAn8nuBRCzARIsAJcdIfNd3v08qWfNUuYUOxPAYTGfIgEZj4erySemzk9KH3brwtZxq0N5sV0aAmwXEALw_wcB) is food fit for the Gods.
As are these - https://www.neuhauschocolates.com/en/assortment/orangette/. One way to my heart. Just saying.....
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I disagree with that. I don't think the majority of Brexiteers are too bothered about the details, with the exception of FOM.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.Dura_Ace said:
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.Pulpstar said:I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
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Charbonnel and Walker no longer sells chocolate orange peel by the box, just loose, so I've been forced to use Godiva.Cyclefree said:
Yes - chocolate. Proper chocolate, that is. Dark - in bars, which you break off into pieces and eat slowly alongside an espresso coffee at the end of a good meal.Nigelb said:News for @Cyclefree ...
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Not some disgusting sugary brown powder, laughably called “chocolate” and poured into a milky coffee. Not Cadbury’s crime eggs - which is just glutinous muck fit only for very young children and, apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The “Foresta” chocolate from this shop in Naples (https://gay-odin.it/categorie-html.html?gclid=Cj0KCQiAn8nuBRCzARIsAJcdIfNd3v08qWfNUuYUOxPAYTGfIgEZj4erySemzk9KH3brwtZxq0N5sV0aAmwXEALw_wcB) is food fit for the Gods.
As are these - https://www.neuhauschocolates.com/en/assortment/orangette/. One way to my heart. Just saying.....
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I guess I am not being completely honest there in that I wouldn't criticise a similar comment about Trump, but I do think of him as a very unpleasant person and much as I might disagree with Corbyn and Boris I don't have that view about either of them as individuals.kjh said:
I don't think those posts reflect well on either of you as human beings.Philip_Thompson said:
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.0 -
I think you are both wrong. He is a showman. He will want big picture government. This will mean passing his withdrawal agreement as is, holding no deal over the EU during FTA discussions (as before - it worked, or at least he can say it did) and getting on with domestic announcements.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.Dura_Ace said:
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.Pulpstar said:I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
His critics said he'd be a bumbling disaster. Not so much yet. His critics say he wants to deliver right-wing deregulation. Looking forward to the manifesto - bet it doesn't offer that. Weaknesses - absolutely - but his record on issues is pretty progressive. I think people will stick with him.0 -
On the technical side this is definitely possible. On the political side it would be naive to think that this is not going on; the major political parties will take advantage of this provided that it is legal or they are sure the money trail won't lead back to them. Also they need the money to buy this targeted advertising.NoSpaceName said:One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area
[Snip]
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.
That is where the problem starts. There is a general principle in the UK that election spending is controlled or capped, but this type of advertising is flying under the radar, and if a clear breach of the rules is found, nabbing the correct culprit has been lets say "complicated".
Over the last 5 years we have seen that this is a growing problem, but defining acceptable practice and overseeing that the law is not broken is going to be a massive headache. There is a real danger that the election regulators will remain 5 years behind the Cambridge Analyticas.
I suspect that it will take over 10 years of trying to address this before we get a reasonable solution. WH2020 will be such a huge event that I forsee this issue will become the focus of either the election itself or for the winner of that election.
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Tbh, the Tory party should wipe the slate clean and recalculate all £9k fees back down to £3k and take the debt write-off. It's good politics and good economics.Cyclefree said:
Labour promising to abolish all student debt might change matters.Casino_Royale said:
This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.nunu2 said:
Wow.brokenwheel said:
Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.SunnyJim said:
I was waiting for Survation......
As I said the leave north is going Tory.
So chill.
A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.DecrepiterJohnL said:
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.eristdoof said:
Thumbs up to that last comment.camel said:
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.Andy_JS said:
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.brokenwheel said:Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.1 -
