politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa

CNN

Read the full story here

Big_G_NorthWales

First and I have no interest in US politics

Big_G_NorthWales

Other than to see the end of Trump

HYUFD

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

madmacs

The front end or the back end? Both are equally obnoxious

kle4

Whether he does win Iowa or not, and whether he gets any further, fair play to Buttigieg for getting so much attention - jumping the queue has probably annoyed plenty of aged Democrats, but it shows what being bold can manage.

Gabs3 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Seriously kicking off in Hong Kong tonight.

The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.

And it seems that is what the world we be like for a long time to come as well. It's depressing as hell.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Other than to see the end of Trump

In which case Biden still remains the Democrats best bet in my view

Alistair

SNP starting to talk up their chances in East Dunbartonshire. Surely that is unwise?

Roger

Try a double on Mayor Pete and Jo Swinson for Pres and PM......

Just seen Andrew's interview. I wonder whether the idea of over privileged empty vessels might tip over and affect Johnson. It's got to be time we turfed out these old fogies once and for all. I suspect Jo is going to be the surprise package. She's improving by the day

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

HYUFD

Roger said:

Try a double on Mayor Pete and Jo Swinson for Pres and PM......

Just seen Andrew's interview. I wonder whether the idea of over privileged empty vessels might tip over and affect Johnson. It's got to be time we turfed out these old fogies once and for all. I suspect Jo is going to be the surprise package. She's improving by the day

I cannot see Swinson becoming PM in a way I could Chuka for example but if she gets in the debates she could have her own Cleggasm.

Buttigieg might win Iowa but I cannot see him actually beating Warren for the nomination, she still looks the likeliest candidate for the Democrats to pick given their current mood

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

rottenborough

Cough, cough.

May I just mention that I blew the trumpet on here for Buttigieg many months ago following a rave review of his embryonic chances from Axelrod?

110/1 at the time.

Stereotomy

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

Yeah forget Sanders on 18% and Biden on 27.3%, it's all about Pete on 7.5%

HYUFD

kle4 said:

Whether he does win Iowa or not, and whether he gets any further, fair play to Buttigieg for getting so much attention - jumping the queue has probably annoyed plenty of aged Democrats, but it shows what being bold can manage.

Gabs3 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Seriously kicking off in Hong Kong tonight.

The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.

And it seems that is what the world we be like for a long time to come as well. It's depressing as hell.

The Chinese government may be ruthless authoritarians but one thing you can say for them is they don't take any nonsense seeking to undermine the unity of the state, Sturgeon and Blackford take note next time you complain about Scotland being oppressed by Westminster

LostPassword

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain crossbreaks for Lab and Con marginals and safe seats. Unfortunately “marginal” and “safe” aren’t defined and the marginals subsamples are small, so the enormous Tory leads that they found in both Labour and Con marginals should be treated with caution.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labour seats and slightly more marginal Conservative seats than Labour marginal seats.

Not safe to take them too seriously, though - according to the subsamples Tory marginal seats are now about to become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

HYUFD

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain crossbreaks for Lab and Con marginals and safe seats. Unfortunately “marginal” and “safe” aren’t defined and the marginals subsamples are small, so the enormous Tory leads that they found in both Labour and Con marginals should be treated with caution.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labour seats and slightly more marginal Conservative seats than Labour marginal seats.

Not safe to take them too seriously, though - according to the subsamples Tory marginal seats are now about to become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

Arthur

I'm watching the ITV film about Jennifer Arcuri and Boris Johnson. She's quite a character. There's been no mention yet that at the time he was in a relationship with this "highly persuasive" foreigner, he was not only Mayor of London but also attending Cabinet meetings... So the relationship would have been vetted, right?

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Trump wins. For all her many policy qualities and sincerities she is McGovern.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Trump wins. For all her many policy qualities and sincerities she is McGovern.

More Kerry or Dukakis (Sanders is more McGovern) but yes you are probably right

ozymandias

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain crossbreaks for Lab and Con marginals and safe seats. Unfortunately “marginal” and “safe” aren’t defined and the marginals subsamples are small, so the enormous Tory leads that they found in both Labour and Con marginals should be treated with caution.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labour seats and slightly more marginal Conservative seats than Labour marginal seats.

Not safe to take them too seriously, though - according to the subsamples Tory marginal seats are now about to become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

HYUFD - I’m near Harlow. Pointless canvassing / leafleting in my constituency so looking for where help needed. Helped Harrington in Watford in 2010 (for my sins). Do the blues need any help there?

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1195884959443103746

Something for the Corbynista to think about?

rcs1000

Stereotomy said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

Yeah forget Sanders on 18% and Biden on 27.3%, it's all about Pete on 7.5%

I think you underestimate how Iowa and New Hampshire define the viable candidates. Obama was 20 to 30 points behind Clinton before Iowa. At this stage in the 2004 contests, Howard Dean was topping the polls, while John Kerry was in single digits.

Like it or not, whoever wins Iowa is the top dog - at least until New Hampshire comes around.

HYUFD

ozymandias said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain cro
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labour seats and slightly more marginal Conservative seats than Labour marginal seats.

Not safe to take them too seriously, though - according to the subsamples Tory marginal seats are now about to become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

HYUFD - I’m near Harlow. Pointless canvassing / leafleting in my constituency so looking for where help needed. Helped Harrington in Watford in 2010 (for my sins). Do the blues need any help there?

Robert Halfon still needs some deliverers though as Momentum still make the occasional foray there (have done a stint myself).

In Hertfordshire St Albans is more vulnerable than Watford and I know the agent, Reece Fox, so would help there

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1195884959443103746

Something for the Corbynista to think about?

Well certainly Labour voices on Twitter and Labour voters in the likes of Workington and Stoke are two different groups of people

ReggieCide

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

Try a double on Mayor Pete and Jo Swinson for Pres and PM......

Just seen Andrew's interview. I wonder whether the idea of over privileged empty vessels might tip over and affect Johnson. It's got to be time we turfed out these old fogies once and for all. I suspect Jo is going to be the surprise package. She's improving by the day

I cannot see Swinson becoming PM in a way I could Chuka for example but if she gets in the debates she could have her own Cleggasm.

Buttigieg might win Iowa but I cannot see him actually beating Warren for the nomination, she still looks the likeliest candidate for the Democrats to pick given their current mood

She could have a Cleggism and still not make it on the porn channels let alone Downing Street

ozymandias

HYUFD said:

ozymandias said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain cro
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labour seats and slightly more marginal Conservative seats than Labour marginal seats.

Not safe to take them too seriously, though - according to the subsamples Tory marginal seats are now about to become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

HYUFD - I’m near Harlow. Pointless canvassing / leafleting in my constituency so looking for where help needed. Helped Harrington in Watford in 2010 (for my sins). Do the blues need any help there?

Robert Halfon still needs some deliverers though as Momentum still make the occasional foray there (have done a stint myself).

In Hertfordshire St Albans is more vulnerable than Watford and I know the agent, Reece Fox, so would help there

Thanks. I’ll see if my local association can put me in contact.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Kennedy/status/1196169571721502720?s=20

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

HYUFD

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

ReggieCide

HYUFD said:

ozymandias said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain cro
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labour seats and slightly more marginal Conservative seats than Labour marginal seats.

Not safe to take them too seriously, though - according to the subsamples Tory marginal seats are now about to become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

HYUFD - I’m near Harlow. Pointless canvassing / leafleting in my constituency so looking for where help needed. Helped Harrington in Watford in 2010 (for my sins). Do the blues need any help there?

Robert Halfon still needs some deliverers though as Momentum still make the occasional foray there (have done a stint myself).

In Hertfordshire St Albans is more vulnerable than Watford and I know the agent, Reece Fox, so would help there

I found this old clip of Ms Swansong

https://youtu.be/HXiZHXkG-ac

Sunil_Prasannan

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ah, nostalgia!:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640

The interesting thing about those figures is that the Tory share was slightly underestimated. They polled 43.5% at the election itself.

Is the ELBOW chart based on GB or UK polling?

Only Survation is UK. All other pollsters do GB polling.

HYUFD

ReggieCide said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

Try a double on Mayor Pete and Jo Swinson for Pres and PM......

Just seen Andrew's interview. I wonder whether the idea of over privileged empty vessels might tip over and affect Johnson. It's got to be time we turfed out these old fogies once and for all. I suspect Jo is going to be the surprise package. She's improving by the day

I cannot see Swinson becoming PM in a way I could Chuka for example but if she gets in the debates she could have her own Cleggasm.

Buttigieg might win Iowa but I cannot see him actually beating Warren for the nomination, she still looks the likeliest candidate for the Democrats to pick given their current mood

She could have a Cleggism and still not make it on the porn channels let alone Downing Street

Boris isn't that fussy

HYUFD

ozymandias said:

HYUFD said:

ozymandias said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain cro
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginal Labome safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

HYUFD - I’m near Harlow. Pointless canvassing / leafleting in my constituency so looking for where help needed. Helped Harrington in Watford in 2010 (for my sins). Do the blues need any help there?

Robert Halfon still needs some deliverers though as Momentum still make the occasional foray there (have done a stint myself).

In Hertfordshire St Albans is more vulnerable than Watford and I know the agent, Reece Fox, so would help there

Thanks. I’ll see if my local association can put me in contact.

Yes do, they could use the help

ReggieCide

HYUFD said:

ReggieCide said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

Try a double on Mayor Pete and Jo Swinson for Pres and PM......

Just seen Andrew's interview. I wonder whether the idea of over privileged empty vessels might tip over and affect Johnson. It's got to be time we turfed out these old fogies once and for all. I suspect Jo is going to be the surprise package. She's improving by the day

I cannot see Swinson becoming PM in a way I could Chuka for example but if she gets in the debates she could have her own Cleggasm.

Buttigieg might win Iowa but I cannot see him actually beating Warren for the nomination, she still looks the likeliest candidate for the Democrats to pick given their current mood

She could have a Cleggism and still not make it on the porn channels let alone Downing Street

Boris isn't that fussy

Thee are limits, even for Boris

Gabs3

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

That is too many things in a message. They need to pick three.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

Gabbard is on the 'socialist' wing

Gabs3

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Trump wins. For all her many policy qualities and sincerities she is McGovern.

More Kerry or Dukakis (Sanders is more McGovern) but yes you are probably right

Both Kerry and Dukakis would win if you reweighted to current demographics.

rottenborough

No matter how many times my head tells me Buttigieg aint gonna be the Dem nominee this time for a myriad of reasons.

My gut tells me to think again.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196145937028128769?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196147262411431937?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196147712472817666?s=20

ReggieCide

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Kennedy/status/1196169571721502720?s=20

Lammy meant satyre. He has 20:20 vision

Gabs3

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

Gabbard is on the 'socialist' wing

Socialist sponsored by Putin. Like Jill Stein and Jeremy Corbyn.

Big_G_NorthWales

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

HYUFD

ReggieCide said:

HYUFD said:

ozymandias said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

NeilVW said:

NeilVW said:

LostPassword said:

nunu2 said:

Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority

https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832

That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain

Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?

You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.

I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.

10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?

Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).

For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:

- 127 won by Con in 2017
- 105 Lab
- 12 LD
- 4 PC
- 35 SNP

Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.

No problem. Deltapoll tables contain cro
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf

Going from the sample sizes it looks like there are slightly more than 63 marginato become safer seats than current Tory safe seats.

Yes, I expect Harlow for example to be safer than Tunbridge Wells after this election for the Tories

HYUFD - I’m near Harlow. Pointless canvassing / leafleting in my constituency so looking for where help needed. Helped Harrington in Watford in 2010 (for my sins). Do the blues need any help there?

Robert Halfon still needs some deliverers though as Momentum still make the occasional foray there (have done a stint myself).

In Hertfordshire St Albans is more vulnerable than Watford and I know the agent, Reece Fox, so would help there

I found this old clip of Ms Swansong

https://youtu.be/HXiZHXkG-ac

Yes if she gets on the debates that could well happen again

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

Gabbard is on the 'socialist' wing

Well, let's take that as being so. We'll also add Bullock and Sestak to the socialist grouping, although we'll have to add Castro to the moderates. And let's divide Williamson's support equally between the moderate and socialist sides (the number is frankly pretty small). In total, the 'moderates' are in the mid to high-40s, and the 'socialists' in the 40 to 44 range.

In other words, while I agree the zeitgeist seems to favour Warren, the race is pretty well balanced between the moderate and socialist wings of the Democratic party.

edmundintokyo

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

Gabbard is on the 'socialist' wing

There's some overlap between tankie and normal socialist, with Bernie 2016 being the intersection of the venn diagrams, but saying she's "on the socialist wing" is just weird.

Nate Silver has a thing on where her support comes from, and it's not socialists.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-tulsi-gabbards-base/

Time_to_Leave

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

Gabbard is on the 'socialist' wing

Well, let's take that as being so. We'll also add Bullock and Sestak to the socialist grouping, although we'll have to add Castro to the moderates. And let's divide Williamson's support equally between the moderate and socialist sides (the number is frankly pretty small). In total, the 'moderates' are in the mid to high-40s, and the 'socialists' in the 40 to 44 range.

In other words, while I agree the zeitgeist seems to favour Warren, the race is pretty well balanced between the moderate and socialist wings of the Democratic party.

Should also be noted the 'moderate' camp is divided between more socially conservative voters behind Biden and more socially liberal voters behind Buttigieg while the 'socialist' camp is largely united on populist, leftist economics and social liberalism

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

Full on Gammon.....

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He won't. He has been well drilled now. His performance in the debates will be fine / good (not saying I agree with his policies, but he has spent 40 years rehearsing his lines).

rottenborough

Nobody seems to have told her that the rest of Jezza's outriders spend most of the day slagging off this kind of mainstream media quoting of what people actually say...

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196128940819206145

edmundintokyo

Lucky for the Dems that Mayor Pete is getting some good polling now. Their nightmare scenario was that he pops up in Iowa, crowds out the other moderates beginning with "B" (Biden/Booker/Baemy), then falls apart under scrutiny because he wasn't ready for the big time.

PS I do like how this process works, with each candidate getting a couple of weeks as front-runner so we can see how they do.

HYUFD

Gabs3 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Trump wins. For all her many policy qualities and sincerities she is McGovern.

More Kerry or Dukakis (Sanders is more McGovern) but yes you are probably right

Both Kerry and Dukakis would win if you reweighted to current demographics.

Not the electoral college they wouldn't, certainly not Dukakis

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

Nobody seems to have told her that the rest of Jezza's outriders spend most of the day slagging off this kind of mainstream media quoting of what people actually say...

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196128940819206145

And Tories can't forgive Laura Pidcock for backing Corbyn's hard left agenda

kle4

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He sometimes seems able to handle it, but other times he cracks (like petulantly asking for questions on things he wanted to be questioned about, like the NHS, once) - last time he did very well all things considered. He's not alone in politicians in not liking persistent questioning on a point he does not like (and sometimes journalists do it on something already answered or something inconsequential) but that's the job, and they have to deal with it and not get tetchy.

I suppose default reactions to losing one's cool is key. Boris flaps around like a deer in headlights when it happens, but Corbyn gets angry. This is his moment, a rerun after he showed a lot of people (mostly) wrong last time - can he keep discipline? Boris does seem to provoke a lot of people to distraction, but a 'debate' is a very different arena to a media interview - he just needs to stay calm, repeat his core lines and look passionate.

rcs1000

edmundintokyo said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren ahead in New Hampshire though in the latest poll on 31% with Biden on 22%, Sanders on 20% and Buttigieg on 16%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Biden ahead in South Carolina's latest poll on 45% with Warren on 17%, Sanders on 15% and Buttigieg on 8%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18LZNu8nrKO8zvVKbrdkagjcbZaYN_uW5/view

So looks like an emerging Buttigieg, Warren and Biden top tier if those 3 take the early caucus and primary states, with Sanders just behind

Sanders is finished imho. His time is done.

This will end up being Bittigieg vs Warren.

Fascinating.

In which case the Sanders vote will go to Warren and she wins

Simplistically, I think there are two Democratic "tracks" - there are the moderates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, Steyer and Yang), and then there are the socialists (Warren and Sanders.

A lot depends on when the tier three candidates drop out, with early departures favouring Biden and Buttigieg, and later departures favouring Warren and Sanders. (Because a lot of the moderate vote will be wasted if it goes on Klobuchar, and she doesn't get delegates.) In total, the moderate "wing" of the Democratic party looks slightly bigger than the socialist one, although there are of course some difficult to pigeonhole candidates such as Gabbard.

Gabbard is on the 'socialist' wing

There's some overlap between tankie and normal socialist, with Bernie 2016 being the intersection of the venn diagrams, but saying she's "on the socialist wing" is just weird.

Nate Silver has a thing on where her support comes from, and it's not socialists.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-tulsi-gabbards-base/

That's a fascinating article, and one that suggests she could really outperform in New Hampshire if a lot of Republicans come out to vote in the Democratic primary.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

All people in the middle east need to come together....just not Israel as they are a racist nation that should exist (in Jezza's view).

nico67

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

Good to see such a young vibrant crowd there supporting him ! Was he doing some publicity for Saga !

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

Should also be noted the 'moderate' camp is divided between more socially conservative voters behind Biden and more socially liberal voters behind Buttigieg while the 'socialist' camp is largely united on populist, leftist economics and social liberalism

That's true. It's a complex picture, with Buttigieg appealing more to college educated whites (which is Sanders and Warren's base), and Biden doing better with African American and lower income voters. Likewise, one shouldn't ignore the poll from September that had Buttigieg as the most common "second choice" for voters, almost irrespective of who their first choice was.

I think adding anyone's votes to anyone else's is a bit of a mug's fame. And this is going to be a fascinating primary season.

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He sometimes seems able to handle it, but other times he cracks (like petulantly asking for questions on things he wanted to be questioned about, like the NHS, once) - last time he did very well all things considered. He's not alone in politicians in not liking persistent questioning on a point he does not like (and sometimes journalists do it on something already answered or something inconsequential) but that's the job, and they have to deal with it and not get tetchy.

I suppose default reactions to losing one's cool is key. Boris flaps around like a deer in headlights when it happens, but Corbyn gets angry. This is his moment, a rerun after he showed a lot of people (mostly) wrong last time - can he keep discipline? Boris does seem to provoke a lot of people to distraction, but a 'debate' is a very different arena to a media interview - he just needs to stay calm, repeat his core lines and look passionate.

Jezza hasn't had a gammon moment for a long time now. I don't think it will happen next week.

I actually find worse than the blow up, his hectoring manner of a university lecturer who thinks they are far superior than everybody else, where they are definitely unwavering 100% correct in their assessment and everybody else is just plain wrong.

I am fully expecting Boris to go into full on bluster mode. He was like that during every debate I have seen him do. I would hope the Tories have been drilling him, but I have a feeling he won't stick to the script.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1196191858688503809?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1196191858688503809?s=20

Not massively different from Baxter i.e. in the 50 seat majority kinda of range.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

All people in the middle east need to come together....just not Israel as they are a racist nation that should exist (in Jezza's view).

If Julie Etchingham can do this in Tuesday's debate then Lab are f***ed.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He sometimes seems able to handle it, but other times he cracks (like petulantly asking for questions on things he wanted to be questioned about, like the NHS, once) - last time he did very well all things considered. He's not alone in politicians in not liking persistent questioning on a point he does not like (and sometimes journalists do it on something already answered or something inconsequential) but that's the job, and they have to deal with it and not get tetchy.

I suppose default reactions to losing one's cool is key. Boris flaps around like a deer in headlights when it happens, but Corbyn gets angry. This is his moment, a rerun after he showed a lot of people (mostly) wrong last time - can he keep discipline? Boris does seem to provoke a lot of people to distraction, but a 'debate' is a very different arena to a media interview - he just needs to stay calm, repeat his core lines and look passionate.

Jezza hasn't had a gammon moment for a long time now. I don't think it will happen next week.

I actually find worse than the blow up, his hectoring manner of a university lecturer who thinks they are far superior than everybody else, where they are definitely unwavering 100% correct in their assessment and everybody else is just plain wrong.

I am fully expecting Boris to go into full on bluster mode. He was like that during every debate I have seen him do. I would hope the Tories have been drilling him, but I have a feeling he won't stick to the script.

Indeed. Problem is Boris would probably do poorly trying to stick to a script as it would seem against his usual character, but freeballing is also risky as you note. One cutting question he cannot answer and his own reaction will make it seem worse than it is.

ReggieCide

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Christ almighty - can anyone trust their canary to him, never mind the nation

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He sometimes seems able to handle it, but other times he cracks (like petulantly asking for questions on things he wanted to be questioned about, like the NHS, once) - last time he did very well all things considered. He's not alone in politicians in not liking persistent questioning on a point he does not like (and sometimes journalists do it on something already answered or something inconsequential) but that's the job, and they have to deal with it and not get tetchy.

I suppose default reactions to losing one's cool is key. Boris flaps around like a deer in headlights when it happens, but Corbyn gets angry. This is his moment, a rerun after he showed a lot of people (mostly) wrong last time - can he keep discipline? Boris does seem to provoke a lot of people to distraction, but a 'debate' is a very different arena to a media interview - he just needs to stay calm, repeat his core lines and look passionate.

Jezza hasn't had a gammon moment for a long time now. I don't think it will happen next week.

I actually find worse than the blow up, his hectoring manner of a university lecturer who thinks they are far superior than everybody else, where they are definitely unwavering 100% correct in their assessment and everybody else is just plain wrong.

I am fully expecting Boris to go into full on bluster mode. He was like that during every debate I have seen him do. I would hope the Tories have been drilling him, but I have a feeling he won't stick to the script.

Indeed. Problem is Boris would probably do poorly trying to stick to a script as it would seem against his usual character, but freeballing is also risky as you note. One cutting question he cannot answer and his own reaction will make it seem worse than it is.

I think luckily for Boris, it is a bit like his bonking around, and it is factored in somewhat that he will bumble and bluster. And he won't be up against a Nick Clegg type figure who was relatively unknown and able to morph his positions to sound very very reasonable for all sides.

Time_to_Leave

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He sometimes seems able to handle it, but other times he cracks (like petulantly asking for questions on things he wanted to be questioned about, like the NHS, once) - last time he did very well all things considered. He's not alone in politicians in not liking persistent questioning on a point he does not like (and sometimes journalists do it on something already answered or something inconsequential) but that's the job, and they have to deal with it and not get tetchy.

I suppose default reactions to losing one's cool is key. Boris flaps around like a deer in headlights when it happens, but Corbyn gets angry. This is his moment, a rerun after he showed a lot of people (mostly) wrong last time - can he keep discipline? Boris does seem to provoke a lot of people to distraction, but a 'debate' is a very different arena to a media interview - he just needs to stay calm, repeat his core lines and look passionate.

Jezza hasn't had a gammon moment for a long time now. I don't think it will happen next week.

I actually find worse than the blow up, his hectoring manner of a university lecturer who thinks they are far superior than everybody else, where they are definitely unwavering 100% correct in their assessment and everybody else is just plain wrong.

I am fully expecting Boris to go into full on bluster mode. He was like that during every debate I have seen him do. I would hope the Tories have been drilling him, but I have a feeling he won't stick to the script.

Indeed. Problem is Boris would probably do poorly trying to stick to a script as it would seem against his usual character, but freeballing is also risky as you note. One cutting question he cannot answer and his own reaction will make it seem worse than it is.

If you go back to the mayoral debates he was always seen by commentators to have “lost” but often judged to have “won” by the public. I think some of it is being liked. And we know from the polling he has a head start there.

ReggieCide

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

Good to see such a young vibrant crowd there supporting him ! Was he doing some publicity for Saga !

It obviously wasn't rigged

FrancisUrquhart

ReggieCide said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Christ almighty - can anyone trust their canary to him, never mind the nation

Imagine what he will be like after months of little sleep, 7 day a week travelling around the world to meeting after meeting, having to complete his red box on time, etc etc etc....rather than going on a news show after only "working" 3-4 days week, very long holidays and having regular afternoon naps.

nico67

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

All people in the middle east need to come together....just not Israel as they are a racist nation that should exist (in Jezza's view).

If Julie Etchingham can do this in Tuesday's debate then Lab are f***ed.

Julie Etchingham was brilliant in the last GE when she had to cope with the 7 leaders debate although of course Amber Rudd took over for May then .

I have no idea how this debate will work out , much depends on what questions are asked . I think anything could happen .

FrancisUrquhart

nico67 said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

All people in the middle east need to come together....just not Israel as they are a racist nation that should exist (in Jezza's view).

If Julie Etchingham can do this in Tuesday's debate then Lab are f***ed.

Julie Etchingham was brilliant in the last GE when she had to cope with the 7 leaders debate although of course Amber Rudd took over for May then .

I have no idea how this debate will work out , much depends on what questions are asked . I think anything could happen .

I predict a lot of heat and not much light. The difference from say Cameron, Brown and Clegg where they were all competing for a fairly similar part of turf, this head to head will be two extreme views with very little overlap.

ReggieCide

FrancisUrquhart said:

ReggieCide said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Christ almighty - can anyone trust their canary to him, never mind the nation

Imagine what he will be like after months of little sleep, 7 day a week travelling around the world to meeting after meeting, having to complete his red box on time, etc etc etc....rather than going on a news show after only "working" 3-4 days week, very long holidays and having regular afternoon naps.

I was just going to bed hoping to sleep. You're heartless.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

ReggieCide said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Christ almighty - can anyone trust their canary to him, never mind the nation

Imagine what he will be like after months of little sleep, 7 day a week travelling around the world to meeting after meeting, having to complete his red box on time, etc etc etc....rather than going on a news show after only "working" 3-4 days week, very long holidays and having regular afternoon naps.

In a fit of sleep deprivation Corbyn reverses his nuclear subs orders and demands that they fire on Moscow now.

ReggieCide

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ReggieCide said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Christ almighty - can anyone trust their canary to him, never mind the nation

Imagine what he will be like after months of little sleep, 7 day a week travelling around the world to meeting after meeting, having to complete his red box on time, etc etc etc....rather than going on a news show after only "working" 3-4 days week, very long holidays and having regular afternoon naps.

In a fit of sleep deprivation Corbyn reverses his nuclear subs orders and demands that they fire on Moscow now.

Phew. I thought it might be serious.

ReggieCide

FrancisUrquhart said:

nico67 said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

All people in the middle east need to come together....just not Israel as they are a racist nation that should exist (in Jezza's view).

If Julie Etchingham can do this in Tuesday's debate then Lab are f***ed.

Julie Etchingham was brilliant in the last GE when she had to cope with the 7 leaders debate although of course Amber Rudd took over for May then .

I have no idea how this debate will work out , much depends on what questions are asked . I think anything could happen .

I predict a lot of heat and not much light. The difference from say Cameron, Brown and Clegg where they were all competing for a fairly similar part of turf, this head to head will be two extreme views with very little overlap.

You've persuaded me to watch, suitably primed.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196194504719716352

FrancisUrquhart

ReggieCide said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

nico67 said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

All people in the middle east need to come together....just not Israel as they are a racist nation that should exist (in Jezza's view).

If Julie Etchingham can do this in Tuesday's debate then Lab are f***ed.

Julie Etchingham was brilliant in the last GE when she had to cope with the 7 leaders debate although of course Amber Rudd took over for May then .

I have no idea how this debate will work out , much depends on what questions are asked . I think anything could happen .

I predict a lot of heat and not much light. The difference from say Cameron, Brown and Clegg where they were all competing for a fairly similar part of turf, this head to head will be two extreme views with very little overlap.

You've persuaded me to watch, suitably primed.

I would rather watch the Cincinnati Bengals play the Miami Dolphins at hand egg...

RobD

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

Blue diamonds?

Is he winning there?

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196194504719716352

He is just going to create 300k jobs, just like that? Poor effort anyway, Mandelson once promised 400k green jobs in a similar manner. Loft laggers of the world unite.

FrancisUrquhart

Under the plans, businesses will benefit from an average of 80,000 people per year being trained as apprentice engineers and technicians in renewable energy and transport, civil engineers and skilled tradespeople in sustainable construction, designers, welders and fabricators in low carbon industries, and sustainable agriculture and forestry specialists.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-labour-promise-320000-20903857

Arhhhh, so it is like Mandelson's wheeze. It is basically a catch all term for apprenticeships in trades and attaching "sustainable" buzz words to stuff like construction and farming.

I presume it won't be as bad as Mandy's were trainee shoe makers were included in the figures, as technically they could make Vegan shoes and that would be a sustainable green job.

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1196191858688503809?s=20

That's very similar to my "internal" forecast.

FrancisUrquhart

A bill is being introduced that would give the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds in many elections in Wales and empower local authorities to decide which voting system they use.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/18/welsh-bill-would-allow-16--and-17-year-olds-to-vote-in-local-elections

Andy_JS

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1196191858688503809?s=20

That's very similar to my "internal" forecast.

I think the LDs will do a bit better than 20 seats. Between 30 and 40 IMO.

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

ReggieCide said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Christ almighty - can anyone trust their canary to him, never mind the nation

Imagine what he will be like after months of little sleep, 7 day a week travelling around the world to meeting after meeting, having to complete his red box on time, etc etc etc....rather than going on a news show after only "working" 3-4 days week, very long holidays and having regular afternoon naps.

John McDonnell would actually run the country, Corbyn would just be the frontman.

A bit like Dick Cheney and George W Bush

SunnyJim

kle4 said:

Indeed. Problem is Boris would probably do poorly trying to stick to a script as it would seem against his usual character, but freeballing is also risky as you note. One cutting question he cannot answer and his own reaction will make it seem worse than it is.

You would expect him to be being coached to cut out the waffling, bumbling delivery which grates.

It isn't beyond the wit of man to foresee the likely questions and practice short, snappy answers.

Anything out of left-field should be pulled back on to Brexit or Corbyn's unsuitability for the job.

Chris

If gay politicians were electable, Tim Farron would be prime minister by now.

Chris

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196194504719716352

Tomorrow's Daily Mail headline:
"PAEDO ANTI-SEMITIC COMMIES IN BID TO CONTROL THE WEATHER"

Chris

Time_to_Leave said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Not sure this will persuade centrist voters in Labour marginals that Corbyn is a safe pair of hands. https://t.co/dCqw40Yhpb

If he blows up in the debate he’s fucked. And Boris will try for it.

He sometimes seems able to handle it, but other times he cracks (like petulantly asking for questions on things he wanted to be questioned about, like the NHS, once) - last time he did very well all things considered. He's not alone in politicians in not liking persistent questioning on a point he does not like (and sometimes journalists do it on something already answered or something inconsequential) but that's the job, and they have to deal with it and not get tetchy.

I suppose default reactions to losing one's cool is key. Boris flaps around like a deer in headlights when it happens, but Corbyn gets angry. This is his moment, a rerun after he showed a lot of people (mostly) wrong last time - can he keep discipline? Boris does seem to provoke a lot of people to distraction, but a 'debate' is a very different arena to a media interview - he just needs to stay calm, repeat his core lines and look passionate.

Jezza hasn't had a gammon moment for a long time now. I don't think it will happen next week.

I actually find worse than the blow up, his hectoring manner of a university lecturer who thinks they are far superior than everybody else, where they are definitely unwavering 100% correct in their assessment and everybody else is just plain wrong.

I am fully expecting Boris to go into full on bluster mode. He was like that during every debate I have seen him do. I would hope the Tories have been drilling him, but I have a feeling he won't stick to the script.

Indeed. Problem is Boris would probably do poorly trying to stick to a script as it would seem against his usual character, but freeballing is also risky as you note. One cutting question he cannot answer and his own reaction will make it seem worse than it is.

If you go back to the mayoral debates he was always seen by commentators to have “lost” but often judged to have “won” by the public. I think some of it is being liked.

I think some of it is stupid people falling for a plausible con-man.

Andy_JS

Not sure it's a good idea for Corbyn to lose his temper with interviewers from Channel 4 News (Krishnan Guru-Murthy) and the BBC (Andrew Marr). Those are probably the most pro-Labour broadcasters with more Labour supporters watching then other TV news shows. It would be a bit like Trump going on Fox News and losing his temper with the anchors.

rcs1000

Andy_JS said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1196191858688503809?s=20

That's very similar to my "internal" forecast.

I think the LDs will do a bit better than 20 seats. Between 30 and 40 IMO.

My gut, and there is nothing scientific about this, is that the LDs will have a good last ten days of the campaign, hammering home their "only we can stop Brexit" message.

It will do them no good at all in the South West, but it may well resonate in London, in University towns, and a few other prosperous suburbs and market towns. 21-15 seats is my current range.

SunnyJim

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

FrancisUrquhart

SunnyJim said:

twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Is that a new one? I might be wrong but I think that a 7% increase for the Tories on last Survation poll, Labour down 1%.

brokenwheel

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

FrancisUrquhart

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Other than one poll, it seems Labour have hit 30% and got stuck there the last week or so, while the Tories have broken through 40% and rising.

Andy_JS

FrancisUrquhart said:

SunnyJim said:

twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Is that a new one? I might be wrong but I think that a 7% increase for the Tories on last Survation poll, Labour down 1%.

Yes that's correct.

Changes since previous Survation poll:

Con +7%
Lab -1%
LD -4%
BRX -5%
Grn +2%
Others +1%

brokenwheel

Like most other pollsters methodology has now changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

Andy_JS

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

FrancisUrquhart

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

SunnyJim

Reaction on BF was pretty instant to Survation.

Con Maj in to 1.49 from around 1.6.

My other lay, Con 340+ hasn't moved in quite as markedly.

Andy_JS

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

Doing badly against Corbyn is quite an achievement for the LDs' campaign so far. I thought they'd be on 20% at this stage.