Interesting Bristol NW is the one Barnesian and I were crunching the numbers on back and forth yesterday and came to the same conclusion.
If Labour are under pressure there, they’re in big trouble. Not only is it a bellwether, but it suggests that the higher turnout that rescued them last time isn’t going to be there this time.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.
For everything that can be said of Mrs May, she does genuinely care about public service, and representing the people of Maidenhead.
For all his many faults, Gordon Brown stood in 2015 too, although he was overcome by the SNP wave at that election.
No he didn’t. The Labour candidate was Kenny Selbie.
the various different plans came together at the end.
Not sure Vettel and Leclerc would described it quite like that!
I think that's the first time I ever remember two Ferraris taking each other out, although they both got involved in a big one on the first lap in Singapore a couple of years ago. Rule number one of motorsport - don't crash into your team mate!
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
This must be a horrible election for southern remainers.
Brexit or Corbyn.
The forthcoming YouGov had questions aimed directly at that.
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
This must be a horrible election for southern remainers.
Brexit or Corbyn.
The forthcoming YouGov had questions aimed directly at that.
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.
Unlikely IMO unless there's only a narrow victory.
A healthy majority would be the Tories first really healthy majority in decades (2015 was an unexpected majority but just a slim one). Combined with the PM having been the face of Brexit and the most irreconcilable bastards of 2019 being out of the party now ... I think Johnson if he has the numbers will have more than enough political capital to get his deal through, negotiate an FTA and get that through.
I think the FTA if Britain has a stable government will be less complicated than people think. The Europeans are fed up with Brexit too.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).
Boris is clearly Marmite. He provokes reactions. They are not always positive -especially amongst ladies of a cetain age. But you do also hear great enthusiasm - "Boris is the best thing that has happened to politics since Maggie!" More intriguing is the often heard comment "Boris makes me laugh...." And it is generally "with", but I'm sure there must be some "ats" too...
Either way, nobody laughs at Corbyn..... "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone...."
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
What dog whistling?
This has been the most honest and liberal campaign on migration in at least a decade. No more talk of slashing numbers to the tens of thousands.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).
Boris is the only Tory I think who could win a majority at the moment.
The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.
For everything that can be said of Mrs May, she does genuinely care about public service, and representing the people of Maidenhead.
For all his many faults, Gordon Brown stood in 2015 too, although he was overcome by the SNP wave at that election.
No he didn’t. The Labour candidate was Kenny Selbie.
Damn, you're right, and too late to edit now. Why did I think he did stand?
He remained an active and hardworking backbench constituency MP. So in a sense you were right. But he made the decision not to stand in 2015 quite well in advance - I think even before the 2014 referendum.
Brown announced he was standing down in December six months before the election. Those of a cynical disposition say it was because he knew he would lose.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
No, it's based on our vote becoming less efficient because of the BP withdrawing from however many marginal seats and all currently held Con ones. Additionally, we may build up big vote share in some northern towns and not see any kind of real breakthrough in terms of seats.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
It's treating all migrants equally.
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.
Mr. Mark, the race was shaping up pretty nicely anyway.
Mr. B, true, but Vettel's far from alone in that. Hamilton and Rosberg collided at Belgium and Spain in 2016, I think (certainly that year for the latter), and I believe Damon Hill, whilst leading for Jordan but being caught by team mate Ralf Schumacher, essentially told the team that if his team mate tried to pass him there would be a massive crash.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.
I'm watching the ITV film about Jennifer Arcuri and Boris Johnson. She's quite a character. There's been no mention yet that at the time he was in a relationship with this "highly persuasive" foreigner, he was not only Mayor of London but also attending Cabinet meetings... So the relationship would have been vetted, right?
It's a shame that Boris wasn't attended to by the vet.
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
It's treating all migrants equally.
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).
Boris is clearly Marmite. He provokes reactions. They are not always positive -especially amongst ladies of a cetain age. But you do also hear great enthusiasm - "Boris is the best thing that has happened to politics since Maggie!" More intriguing is the often heard comment "Boris makes me laugh...." And it is generally "with", but I'm sure there must be some "ats" too...
Either way, nobody laughs at Corbyn..... "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone...."
Boris is a bit Marmite but he is the only politician around who can genuinely make people laugh at something funny he says or does and cheer people up.
Its a pretty compelling proposition against the labour "everything is terrible " message.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.
Indeed. If the lesson Labour learn from crushing defeat is to pick a remainer version of Jez then they will be out of power for another cycle taking us to potentially 2029 before they are in with a shot of power.
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
It's treating all migrants equally.
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.
So what controls would you apply?
Insinuating EU citizens living in the UK do not contribute to the funding of the NHS is not about controls, it is about dog whistling. But if it were down to me I would continue with reciprocity. It serves us very well. Without it, there will be far more elderly people requiring NHS treatment than is currently the case.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
Although I think your Nowcast is pretty much spot-on. A Conservative majority of 80-odd, with Labour sub-200 and the LDs in the mid-20s.
The longer-term danger is (simply) that I don't think Boris Johnson is cut out for the job of PM. I think he'll always choose the easy way out, over dealing with deeper problems. It will always be easier to cut taxes and increase spending, rather than to make hard decisions.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
It's treating all migrants equally.
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.
So what controls would you apply?
Insinuating EU citizens living in the UK do not contribute to the funding of the NHS is not about controls, it is about dog whistling. But if it were down to me I would continue with reciprocity. It serves us very well. Without it, there will be far more elderly people requiring NHS treatment than is currently the case.
So no controls for some and treating migrants differently depending on which country they come from? Tell, me who is the xenophobe?
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
If theres one thing proven recently its that LDs overtaking labour is very far from inevitable even with good conditions.
It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).
Boris, Trump, Berlusconi -- you may have hit upon something there!
It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
You omitted to mention any Labour leaders in your list of dissemblers....
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).
I suspect that sexual promiscuity is a definite advantage in seeking high political office.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
If theres one thing proven recently its that LDs overtaking labour is very far from inevitable even with good conditions.
If not then thanks to FPTP the Tories can hope to be in office at least another decade if Labour stick with its hard left leadership
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).
See, Jim Hacker at least was able to get the shagger candidate to stand down.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.
Both are now the Tories main challengers based on constituency polls, certainly Luciana
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.
Both are now the Tories main challengers based on constituency polls, certainly Luciana
Yes, but I don't think they will win. We did the Ashcroft constituency polls to death in 2015 and the national swing proved to be a much bigger wave than anything happening locally.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.
Two friends of mine in Golders Green (Conservative, apolitical, Leavers, but definitely soft-Leavers) have just told me they're voting for Luciana. (This is a single anecdote, as they're husband and wife.)
No particular reason, but they hate Corbyn, and she seems "like a nice lass".
Which just goes to show, voters are a strange bunch.
Given the huge lead and the inevitability of victory Johnson’s decision to dig an ever deeper hole for himself on the FTA is bizarre. The dog whistling xenophobia on EU immigration is also highly regrettable, but par for the Tory course, I guess.
It's treating all migrants equally.
Indeed - like shit. The implication that EU citizens living in the UK do not currently pay taxes and contribute to the funding of the NHS is despicable. But par for the course.
So what controls would you apply?
Insinuating EU citizens living in the UK do not contribute to the funding of the NHS is not about controls, it is about dog whistling. But if it were down to me I would continue with reciprocity. It serves us very well. Without it, there will be far more elderly people requiring NHS treatment than is currently the case.
So no controls for some and treating migrants differently depending on which country they come from? Tell, me who is the xenophobe?
Treating people differently based on reciprocity is not xenophobic, Max.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Another classic example of correlation, not causality. On this basis sexual promiscuity causes people to be elected as MPs (and may suggest that Boris will end up as Emperor of the Universe).
I suspect that sexual promiscuity is a definite advantage in seeking high political office.
Blair was accused of it with some sort of tarot card lady iirc
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).
Boris is the only Tory I think who could win a majority at the moment.
This isn’t really remarkable at all. Most Conservative voters by definition live in Conservative seats, and there is now no Brexit candidate for them to vote for.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.
Yep, if Jezza doesn't get to be PM on the 13, or very soon after, he's off.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.
Both are now the Tories main challengers based on constituency polls, certainly Luciana
Yes, but I don't think they will win. We did the Ashcroft constituency polls to death in 2015 and the national swing proved to be a much bigger wave than anything happening locally.
UNS will almost certainly get seat numbers approximately right. Where the seats fall will be another matter. I would be surprised if either Chuka or Luciana were MPs after the election. (Not staggered, which is a 10% chance or less, but surprised, which is about 25-35% chance.)
It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
You omitted to mention any Labour leaders in your list of dissemblers....
My assumption is that Johnson will be PM. See the first sentence.
It’s very sweet that some people are getting excited about the Arcuri affair or Russian funding as possible threats to Johnson’s premiership. What they fail to understand is that such is his privilege he can lie, lie and lie again, and get away with it. Like Prince Andrew and other members of the gilded elite he will never be held to account for his actions.
You omitted to mention any Labour leaders in your list of dissemblers....
A list of one politician and one prince but in the interests of balance, there was Tony Bliar.
As not a lawyer it seems like if they are required to be given time theres no reason the broadcasters have to make it the same programme.
The test is balance. Balance is measured on at least two factors - crudely, quantity and quality. The former can be satisfied by exposure on different programmes. The latter is less likely to be met in this way. But before you get to that point there is the issue of who is entitled to balance? It cannot apply to all as that would bring in the fringe parties. So a real question for the courts is where you draw the line.
Clearly the SNP and LDs can make different cases. The LDs have to show that balance requires their inclusion in the test nationally. The SNP can make a case specific to Scotland and could argue that any 2 man debate must not be shown in Scotland as a solution.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Jacob Rees-Mogg is parliament's leading chocoholic, reportedly addicted to Creme Eggs, and chocolate soufflés at Claridges.
SNP starting to talk up their chances in East Dunbartonshire. Surely that is unwise?
Or perhaps they have listened to Swinson
That would be the crowning glory of a wretched campaign......
Revoke East Dunbartonshire would be hilarious.
I don't think those posts reflect well on either of you as human beings.
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
What low level of Labour MP's would force Jezza to resign?
Any number that means Boris is PM. I think the real question is what level would force the party membership to not pick a corbynite as his replacement.
Yep, if Jezza doesn't get to be PM on the 13, or very soon after, he's off.
Even if he does, I think. Corbyn has reportedly wanted to step down for some time. He is also getting on a bit. I doubt he'd serve a full term.
One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area - not perhaps quite at the constituency level, but close. How should that work in terms of the different spending limits for national/constituency campaigns? The Tories were in trouble for this sort of thing in a different way in 2015, are we seeing a repeat in 2019?
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
Whoever is putting them out, my wish in this election is that those using these wilfully distorted bar charts on their election material would receive just one vote.
I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.
A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
Stop slagging off Hartlepool. It's the Lucerne of the North.
I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.
A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
Some recent Labour announcements seem almost calculated to lose votes. You have to wonder if some of these public school millionaires are secret Tories.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from BRX in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
This must be a horrible election for southern remainers.
Brexit or Corbyn.
The forthcoming YouGov had questions aimed directly at that.
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.
Unlikely IMO unless there's only a narrow victory.
A healthy majority would be the Tories first really healthy majority in decades (2015 was an unexpected majority but just a slim one). Combined with the PM having been the face of Brexit and the most irreconcilable bastards of 2019 being out of the party now ... I think Johnson if he has the numbers will have more than enough political capital to get his deal through, negotiate an FTA and get that through.
I think the FTA if Britain has a stable government will be less complicated than people think. The Europeans are fed up with Brexit too.
There is no way that a FTA will be negotiated in 12 months. No chance. Not happening.
A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
Some recent Labour announcements seem almost calculated to lose votes. You have to wonder if some of these public school millionaires are secret Tories.
A lifetime of deep cover?
Slightly more likely is they don't undestand that their retail offer is shite.
One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area - not perhaps quite at the constituency level, but close. How should that work in terms of the different spending limits for national/constituency campaigns? The Tories were in trouble for this sort of thing in a different way in 2015, are we seeing a repeat in 2019?
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.
Yes, it probably should be a scandal, and the Conservatives do have form. Already they have been caught not declaring Facebook adverts. Given CCHQ hired NZ consultants specifically for the social media campaign, an upsurge in activity is not surprising. Using fake advocacy groups does seem a step too far; is it CCHQ or the Russians?
Though last time, iirc, Labour was more Twitter than Facebook.
A very angry ex Labour member (resigned a month ago after being a member for 30 years) asked me what the fuck Len McClusky was doing making Labour policy? I had to admit that I didn't know he was.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
Stop slagging off Hartlepool. It's the Lucerne of the North.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
I think even that has built into it an assumption that Labour will be able to repeat their 2017 trick of getting many young traditional non voters to the polls on the day. For all its bizarre irrationality and fantasy elements there was an undoubted buzz about Corbyn in 2017 that I am just not seeing this time. He looks older and tired. Without the unexpected turnout trick I think the Tory majority heads nearer 100.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
Alternatively, if Corbyn is below par, then Boris is going to, er, romp home and - the only story will be piling on to Crap Corbyn.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
I keep saying that I am not particularly a Boris fan (morals and lack of discipline mainly) but he has always been able to reach parts of the electorate that other Tories couldn't (Ruth apart).
Boris is the only Tory I think who could win a majority at the moment.
This isn’t really remarkable at all. Most Conservative voters by definition live in Conservative seats, and there is now no Brexit candidate for them to vote for.
The Tories were polling in 3rd after May extended, even before Farage pulled out in Tory seats the Tories were polling a clear first
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Yes - chocolate. Proper chocolate, that is. Dark - in bars, which you break off into pieces and eat slowly alongside an espresso coffee at the end of a good meal.
Not some disgusting sugary brown powder, laughably called “chocolate” and poured into a milky coffee. Not Cadbury’s crime (I meant to say “Creme” but “crime” is a wonderfully appropriate typo) eggs - which is just glutinous muck fit only for very young children and, apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.
I disagree with that. I don't think the majority of Brexiteers are too bothered about the details, with the exception of FOM.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Yes - chocolate. Proper chocolate, that is. Dark - in bars, which you break off into pieces and eat slowly alongside an espresso coffee at the end of a good meal.
Not some disgusting sugary brown powder, laughably called “chocolate” and poured into a milky coffee. Not Cadbury’s crime eggs - which is just glutinous muck fit only for very young children and, apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
SNP starting to talk up their chances in East Dunbartonshire. Surely that is unwise?
Or perhaps they have listened to Swinson
That would be the crowning glory of a wretched campaign......
Revoke East Dunbartonshire would be hilarious.
I don't think those posts reflect well on either of you as human beings.
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.
I guess I am not being completely honest there in that I wouldn't criticise a similar comment about Trump, but I do think of him as a very unpleasant person and much as I might disagree with Corbyn and Boris I don't have that view about either of them as individuals.
I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.
I think you are both wrong. He is a showman. He will want big picture government. This will mean passing his withdrawal agreement as is, holding no deal over the EU during FTA discussions (as before - it worked, or at least he can say it did) and getting on with domestic announcements.
His critics said he'd be a bumbling disaster. Not so much yet. His critics say he wants to deliver right-wing deregulation. Looking forward to the manifesto - bet it doesn't offer that. Weaknesses - absolutely - but his record on issues is pretty progressive. I think people will stick with him.
One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area [Snip]
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.
On the technical side this is definitely possible. On the political side it would be naive to think that this is not going on; the major political parties will take advantage of this provided that it is legal or they are sure the money trail won't lead back to them. Also they need the money to buy this targeted advertising.
That is where the problem starts. There is a general principle in the UK that election spending is controlled or capped, but this type of advertising is flying under the radar, and if a clear breach of the rules is found, nabbing the correct culprit has been lets say "complicated".
Over the last 5 years we have seen that this is a growing problem, but defining acceptable practice and overseeing that the law is not broken is going to be a massive headache. There is a real danger that the election regulators will remain 5 years behind the Cambridge Analyticas.
I suspect that it will take over 10 years of trying to address this before we get a reasonable solution. WH2020 will be such a huge event that I forsee this issue will become the focus of either the election itself or for the winner of that election.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.
Tbh, the Tory party should wipe the slate clean and recalculate all £9k fees back down to £3k and take the debt write-off. It's good politics and good economics.
Comments
My point is a lot can change in a short time very quickly, and not a single vote has been cast yet.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Meanwhile the shock when voters discover that far from being sorted, the Tories will start bickering over it again, will be something to behold.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
Corbyn really needs to smash it out the park tomorrow night and get his campaign rolling again. There will be a temptation on the part of the media to talk up his performance and the horse race aspect but it is energy on the ground that he needs.
"Have you tried turning the race off and on again?"
A healthy majority would be the Tories first really healthy majority in decades (2015 was an unexpected majority but just a slim one). Combined with the PM having been the face of Brexit and the most irreconcilable bastards of 2019 being out of the party now ... I think Johnson if he has the numbers will have more than enough political capital to get his deal through, negotiate an FTA and get that through.
I think the FTA if Britain has a stable government will be less complicated than people think. The Europeans are fed up with Brexit too.
If the story of 2017 was the apathetic young getting enthused by Corbyn, I wonder if the story of 2019 will be the never-before-Tories getting enthused by Boris?
Either way, nobody laughs at Corbyn..... "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone...."
This has been the most honest and liberal campaign on migration in at least a decade. No more talk of slashing numbers to the tens of thousands.
See too the data below
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196145937028128769?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1196147262411431937?s=20
Mr. B, true, but Vettel's far from alone in that. Hamilton and Rosberg collided at Belgium and Spain in 2016, I think (certainly that year for the latter), and I believe Damon Hill, whilst leading for Jordan but being caught by team mate Ralf Schumacher, essentially told the team that if his team mate tried to pass him there would be a massive crash.
Its a pretty compelling proposition against the labour "everything is terrible " message.
Although I think your Nowcast is pretty much spot-on. A Conservative majority of 80-odd, with Labour sub-200 and the LDs in the mid-20s.
The longer-term danger is (simply) that I don't think Boris Johnson is cut out for the job of PM. I think he'll always choose the easy way out, over dealing with deeper problems. It will always be easier to cut taxes and increase spending, rather than to make hard decisions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50450902
Helpful, I know.
No particular reason, but they hate Corbyn, and she seems "like a nice lass".
Which just goes to show, voters are a strange bunch.
Clearly the SNP and LDs can make different cases. The LDs have to show that balance requires their inclusion in the test nationally. The SNP can make a case specific to Scotland and could argue that any 2 man debate must not be shown in Scotland as a solution.
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.
Also, chocolate is delicious.
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area - not perhaps quite at the constituency level, but close. How should that work in terms of the different spending limits for national/constituency campaigns? The Tories were in trouble for this sort of thing in a different way in 2015, are we seeing a repeat in 2019?
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.
The game is up. For those who want to keep their burgundy passports time to look for pastures new. For those happy to remain in Great Hartlepool good luck.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1455635/Two-women-bloodied-fight-Brexit-UKIP-campaign.html
Slightly more likely is they don't undestand that their retail offer is shite.
Though last time, iirc, Labour was more Twitter than Facebook.
Well sod that.
On UNS that would see the Tories gain 58 Labour seats and the LDs gain just 3 Tory seats
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
Not some disgusting sugary brown powder, laughably called “chocolate” and poured into a milky coffee. Not Cadbury’s crime (I meant to say “Creme” but “crime” is a wonderfully appropriate typo) eggs - which is just glutinous muck fit only for very young children and, apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The “Foresta” chocolate from this shop in Naples (https://gay-odin.it/categorie-html.html?gclid=Cj0KCQiAn8nuBRCzARIsAJcdIfNd3v08qWfNUuYUOxPAYTGfIgEZj4erySemzk9KH3brwtZxq0N5sV0aAmwXEALw_wcB) is food fit for the Gods.
As are these - https://www.neuhauschocolates.com/en/assortment/orangette/. One way to my heart. Just saying.....
His critics said he'd be a bumbling disaster. Not so much yet. His critics say he wants to deliver right-wing deregulation. Looking forward to the manifesto - bet it doesn't offer that. Weaknesses - absolutely - but his record on issues is pretty progressive. I think people will stick with him.
That is where the problem starts. There is a general principle in the UK that election spending is controlled or capped, but this type of advertising is flying under the radar, and if a clear breach of the rules is found, nabbing the correct culprit has been lets say "complicated".
Over the last 5 years we have seen that this is a growing problem, but defining acceptable practice and overseeing that the law is not broken is going to be a massive headache. There is a real danger that the election regulators will remain 5 years behind the Cambridge Analyticas.
I suspect that it will take over 10 years of trying to address this before we get a reasonable solution. WH2020 will be such a huge event that I forsee this issue will become the focus of either the election itself or for the winner of that election.