One thing I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is a huge amount of political advertising on facebook from fake "grassroots" organisations attacking Corbyn/Labour on specific policies - pretty much all of them. A few thoughts about that..
(1) I've not seen anything from Labour and the modest number of Lib Dem adverts I was seeing in October have evaporated. Is this one reason why the Tories are doing better in the polls than a superficial reading of the media campaign would suggest? If the Tories are out-spending by a large margin on facebook then you would think it would have an effect.
(2) None of these ads say that they are funded by the Conservative Party, but I assume that they must be in some way. This is really useful for the Tories, particularly on an issue like private schooling where they can have a proxy criticise the policy without having to be seen to be defending privilege directly. It's also useful because a page calling itself "Parents4Education" or "Working4UK" will automatically be trusted more than "politicians". This also seems like a massive hole in electoral law given the requirements there are to declare allegiance on paper leaflets.
(3) Some of the ads have been targeted at me as a resident of a specific area - not perhaps quite at the constituency level, but close. How should that work in terms of the different spending limits for national/constituency campaigns? The Tories were in trouble for this sort of thing in a different way in 2015, are we seeing a repeat in 2019?
I really don't think we should be allowing advertising by fake advocacy groups - pages created on October 29th is a dead giveaway. Any political advertising should be clear about who is funding it, and parties should not be allowed to funnel spending through front organisations in a way that misleads the voters.
I think we have a real problem here.
Yes, it probably should be a scandal, and the Conservatives do have form. Already they have been caught not declaring Facebook adverts. Given CCHQ hired NZ consultants specifically for the social media campaign, an upsurge in activity is not surprising. Using fake advocacy groups does seem a step too far; is it CCHQ or the Russians?
Though last time, iirc, Labour was more Twitter than Facebook.
I'm struggling to recall which party is suppressing the report into Russian interference, though tbh I doubt any select committee has the expertise necessary (look at Labour's internet or the Tories' porn filter and breakable encryption plans, for instance). At root though is that the main parties use the same techniques as the trolls and Russkies so have a vested interest in keeping grey areas murky.
“Countries that consume the most chocolate per head have the highest numbers of Nobel laureates per capita, according to a study by medical researchers at Columbia University....” http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201911180023.html
Yes - chocolate. Proper chocolate, that is. Dark - in bars, which you break off into pieces and eat slowly alongside an espresso coffee at the end of a good meal.
Not some disgusting sugary brown powder, laughably called “chocolate” and poured into a milky coffee. Not Cadbury’s crime (I meant to say “Creme” but “crime” is a wonderfully appropriate typo) eggs - which is just glutinous muck fit only for very young children and, apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg.
So even Gold Standard Survation now has the Tories lead at 1983 landslide levels
My model using the latest Survation poll gives the Tories a majority of over 60.
Using Baxter's SNP-adjusted model, my calculations show the Tories winning 368 seats and thereby achieving a majority of 86. But the real shocker is the apparent collapse of the LibDems' share of the vote recorded by Survation as being only 13%, which would leave the Yellow Team with only 17 MPs ... fewer than would fit in 4 black London cabs. Obviously it would be unwise to deduce too much from one poll, but it might just be that Swinson's stated intention of revoking Article 50, which *cough* certain commentators have chosen to completely ignore, now looks as if it may very seriously damage the party's vote in this election.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.
Tbh, the Tory party should wipe the slate clean and recalculate all £9k fees back down to £3k and take the debt write-off. It's good politics and good economics.
Would be interesting if they got in first, today, and left Labour hanging.
So even Gold Standard Survation now has the Tories lead at 1983 landslide levels
My model using the latest Survation poll gives the Tories a majority of over 60.
Using Baxter's SNP-adjusted model, my calculations show the Tories winning 368 seats and thereby achieving a majority of 86. But the real shocker is the apparent collapse of the LibDems' share of the vote as recorded by Survation to only 13%, which would leave the Yellow Team with only 17 MPs ... fewer than would fit in 4 black London cabs. Obviously it would be unwise to deduce too much from one poll, but it might just be that Swinson's stated intention of revoking Article 50, which *cough* certain commentators have chosen to completely ignore, now looks as if it may very seriously damage the party's vote in this election.
Or it might be that the LibDems are being squeezed back in Lab/Tory contests but are holding their own where it matters. The forthcoming YouGov model should give us a clue.
LDs will also have taken a small knock in the polls through standing down in those seats where the Greens or PC are leading the Remain alliance, now that almost everypollster is only offering people their constituency candidates.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.
Tbh, the Tory party should wipe the slate clean and recalculate all £9k fees back down to £3k and take the debt write-off. It's good politics and good economics.
Would be interesting if they got in first, today, and left Labour hanging.
It would be fun to see all the pb Tories reverse-ferreting their 2017 claims this would cost trillions of pounds and something something Venezuela.
I'd like to point out that this is another big lead for the Tories after the idiot Corbynet announcement. And interestingly winning points back from the Lib Dems as well, which makes sense as this is exactly the type of policy which will put the fear of Jez into Tories thinking of voting for them and accidentally letting Jez become PM.
Labour has lost all credibility and they won't have it back until the current leadership are summarily dumped and replaced with anyone that has more than three brain cells.
A harsh narrowing of the field, there.
The reaction of Labour members to the defeat will be to blame everyone but themselves, to double down and either stick with Corbyn or tack further to the left. As we have seen from Nick Palmer and other Corbyn cultists on here for the last few years, the comfort zone is immensely beguiling.
Then the LDs overtaking Labour in 5 to 10 years is inevitable if Labour are trounced in the election and do not move back to the centre, with ex Labour Chuka Umunna or Luciana Berger perhaps leading the way for the LDs.
Chuka and Luciana probably won't be MPs.
Two friends of mine in Golders Green (Conservative, apolitical, Leavers, but definitely soft-Leavers) have just told me they're voting for Luciana. (This is a single anecdote, as they're husband and wife.)
No particular reason, but they hate Corbyn, and she seems "like a nice lass".
Which just goes to show, voters are a strange bunch.
For wavering Tories who are concerned that the LibDems might cut a deal and opportunistically put Corbyn in Downing St, those concerns lessen when the LD candidate has a deeply personal issue with Corbyn. I think she'd resign the LD whip if it came to it.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
Sound money. The only party not wanting to ramp up the deficit.
I’d vote LibDem in a heartbeat if the bastards would let me.
I'd gladly vote LibDem, but even before they said they would pull out of Exeter, they had no hope of getting elected and a LD vote there just increases the small chance that the conservative candidate would get elected.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.
Tbh, the Tory party should wipe the slate clean and recalculate all £9k fees back down to £3k and take the debt write-off. It's good politics and good economics.
Would be interesting if they got in first, today, and left Labour hanging.
It would be fun to see all the pb Tories reverse-ferreting their 2017 claims this would cost trillions of pounds and something something Venezuela.
The 6% interest rate is usurious. That should be the first thing to go.
So even Gold Standard Survation now has the Tories lead at 1983 landslide levels
My model using the latest Survation poll gives the Tories a majority of over 60.
Using Baxter's SNP-adjusted model, my calculations show the Tories winning 368 seats and thereby achieving a majority of 86. But the real shocker is the apparent collapse of the LibDems' share of the vote recorded by Survation as being only 13%, which would leave the Yellow Team with only 17 MPs ... fewer than would fit in 4 black London cabs. Obviously it would be unwise to deduce too much from one poll, but it might just be that Swinson's stated intention of revoking Article 50, which *cough* certain commentators have chosen to completely ignore, now looks as if it may very seriously damage the party's vote in this election.
SNP starting to talk up their chances in East Dunbartonshire. Surely that is unwise?
Or perhaps they have listened to Swinson
That would be the crowning glory of a wretched campaign......
Revoke East Dunbartonshire would be hilarious.
I don't think those posts reflect well on either of you as human beings.
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.
I guess I am not being completely honest there in that I wouldn't criticise a similar comment about Trump, but I do think of him as a very unpleasant person and much as I might disagree with Corbyn and Boris I don't have that view about either of them as individuals.
You have a very generous view of Corbyn and Johnson. Corbyn's management of sexual misconduct complaints (Bailey, Etemadzadeh etc) is shameful, even more so than those involving racism. Johnson's history of using and tossing aside people is even worse. It is difficult not to regard such behaviours as very unpleasant.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.
She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)
*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.
Thumbs up to that last comment.
What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.
The Lib Dems are campaigning as if this was a Euro election not a GE. Ed Davey would have been a better leader, I am starting to think. All this “Jo Swinson’s liberals” has a touch of May’s hubris. She has not yet earned the right to behave like that.
Tbh, the Tory party should wipe the slate clean and recalculate all £9k fees back down to £3k and take the debt write-off. It's good politics and good economics.
That's definitely not going to happen, but if it did, the LDs would have been the Human Shield for an unpopular policy which got retroactively wiped after 8 years.
@Cyclefree I said on here yesterday that Labour promising to wipe all student debt and fees is the most obvious play ever.
They are also desperate enough to try it and I doubt the Tories have much (if anything) to counter it, except bluster.
I think students understand there is a cost to university and not many are asking to get it for free, what they want is fairness and the £3k per year was seen as fair. And the RPI based interest payments were also fair, the government weren't profiting from students.
@Cyclefree I said on here yesterday that Labour promising to wipe all student debt and fees is the most obvious play ever.
They are also desperate enough to try it and I doubt the Tories have much (if anything) to counter it, except bluster.
I think students understand there is a cost to university and not many are asking to get it for free, what they want is fairness and the £3k per year was seen as fair. And the RPI based interest payments were also fair, the government weren't profiting from students.
However, not all courses and students are of equal value. The single most stupid thing done by the last government was to extend tuition fees to nursing degrees, at precisely the time when we were desperate for more home grown nurses to fill the inevitable gaps arising from changes in immigration rules. If one thing should disqualify any MP from public office, it is that they backed that piece of rank stupidity.
I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.
I disagree with this view. If the Tories get a big majority, as seems likely, it will be on the back of Leave voters whose only real allegiance to the Tories is over Brexit. Johnson's electoral coalition will demand a 'proper' Brexit. The big parliamentary majority will be used to push through deregulation, tax cuts and a US trade deal, not to crush the ERG.
I think you are both wrong. He is a showman. He will want big picture government. This will mean passing his withdrawal agreement as is, holding no deal over the EU during FTA discussions (as before - it worked, or at least he can say it did) and getting on with domestic announcements.
His critics said he'd be a bumbling disaster. Not so much yet. His critics say he wants to deliver right-wing deregulation. Looking forward to the manifesto - bet it doesn't offer that. Weaknesses - absolutely - but his record on issues is pretty progressive. I think people will stick with him.
It doesn't matter what's in the manifesto, if he has a big majority he has five years to do what he wants. The donor class's demands plus the economic logic of walking away from our main export market will dictate a deregulation agenda plus getting much closer to the US, I think that is a given. His record in London is pretty meh, he didn't really do anything, so I don't think it tells us much about how he'll govern as PM. There will be some liberal looking things eg on the environment to deflect attention from Thatcherism 2.0.
@Cyclefree I said on here yesterday that Labour promising to wipe all student debt and fees is the most obvious play ever.
They are also desperate enough to try it and I doubt the Tories have much (if anything) to counter it, except bluster.
I think students understand there is a cost to university and not many are asking to get it for free, what they want is fairness and the £3k per year was seen as fair. And the RPI based interest payments were also fair, the government weren't profiting from students.
However, not all courses and students are of equal value. The single most stupid thing done by the last government was to extend tuition fees to nursing degrees, at precisely the time when we were desperate for more home grown nurses to fill the inevitable gaps arising from changes in immigration rules. If one thing should disqualify any MP from public office, it is that they backed that piece of rank stupidity.
Well yes, however, recalculating fees and writing off the difference will be a very, very popular policy and be seen as deliverable. Free this, free that and free everything else is seen as a fantasy. Vote for Bozza and get your student debt reduced by 60-70% and interest rates down to reasonable levels.
SNP starting to talk up their chances in East Dunbartonshire. Surely that is unwise?
Or perhaps they have listened to Swinson
That would be the crowning glory of a wretched campaign......
Revoke East Dunbartonshire would be hilarious.
I don't think those posts reflect well on either of you as human beings.
Equally I would like to see Corbyn and Boris lose their seats, it is a competition after all, but I would have sympathy for either of them if they did. I don't gloat when my side wins in a competition, but rejoice my side won and commiserate with the loser. When Stephen Twigg beat Michael Portillo (neither of whose political views I support) I was really chuffed for Twigg and felt sorry for Portillo.
It is not a pleasant characteristic to enjoy someone's misfortune.
I guess I am not being completely honest there in that I wouldn't criticise a similar comment about Trump, but I do think of him as a very unpleasant person and much as I might disagree with Corbyn and Boris I don't have that view about either of them as individuals.
You have a very generous view of Corbyn and Johnson. Corbyn's management of sexual misconduct complaints (Bailey, Etemadzadeh etc) is shameful, even more so than those involving racism. Johnson's history of using and tossing aside people is even worse. It is difficult not to regard such behaviours as very unpleasant.
That might well be true, but I don't know them as individuals so I don't know the full circumstances. How much is incompetence, political expediency, etc. I can think of similar situations from the side I support. I can criticise for such behaviour very strongly, but I don't wish ill will on them as individuals, which is what I found distasteful.
Most people go into politics because they wish to achieve an end they believe in for the public good or for the challenge. I suspect Boris is in it for the challenge (similarly Cameron, Osborne, etc). He is not doing it for personal gain other than satisfaction.
Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.
The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.
The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.
In Henley yesterday you couldn't move for Lib Dems. Maybe appearing live is preferable to the odd interview with the publicity seeking Krishnan Guru-Murthy
@Cyclefree I said on here yesterday that Labour promising to wipe all student debt and fees is the most obvious play ever.
They are also desperate enough to try it and I doubt the Tories have much (if anything) to counter it, except bluster.
They have the £10bn plus each year that the ONS is now dumping on government borrowing for student bad debt.
If the Conservatives don't use that then their level of incompetence and denial does not bode well.
Exactly. It’s effectively a reality adjustment for the stuff that was never going to be repaid. Since the hit has to be taken anyway, it would be mad not to use it politically.
Laughable. Brexit will not be done for many years. And the rest goes against Tory policy for the last 40 (or 74? or 200?) years.
The Tory manifesto should simply say "The Conservative Party should be in government".
As Michael Heseltine always says, the Conservative Party is about being in power.
And the rest of us suffer. Yeah, I know it's not such a bad country in global terms. But we are way short of where we should be in terms of quality of life, and things will get much, much worse. Thanks Tories.
If Boris gets a big enough majority he will, without pause, betray the ERG the way he did the DUP and do BINO, if that. He was never really that into Brexit anyway beyond using it as a vehicle for his own advancement.
I don't think it will end up as BINO but I do think the ultimate deal will be close alignment rather than clean break. More Switzerland or Norway than Canada or Japan. And on your main point - about Johnson - I do agree. The way to understand our politics is to realize that it is NOT about Brexit. Brexit, like everything else, is mere grist to the mill of what is really important. The only game in town. The Boris Johnson Project. Objective, maximize the political prospects of Boris Johnson. Method, whatever it takes. It has gone swimmingly for the last 2 years and looks like hitting the bulls-eye on Dec 12th. Sadly.
So even Gold Standard Survation now has the Tories lead at 1983 landslide levels
My model using the latest Survation poll gives the Tories a majority of over 60.
Using Baxter's SNP-adjusted model, my calculations show the Tories winning 368 seats and thereby achieving a majority of 86. But the real shocker is the apparent collapse of the LibDems' share of the vote as recorded by Survation to only 13%, which would leave the Yellow Team with only 17 MPs ... fewer than would fit in 4 black London cabs. Obviously it would be unwise to deduce too much from one poll, but it might just be that Swinson's stated intention of revoking Article 50, which *cough* certain commentators have chosen to completely ignore, now looks as if it may very seriously damage the party's vote in this election.
Or it might be that the LibDems are being squeezed back in Lab/Tory contests but are holding their own where it matters. The forthcoming YouGov model should give us a clue.
LDs will also have taken a small knock in the polls through standing down in those seats where the Greens or PC are leading the Remain alliance, now that almost everypollster is only offering people their constituency candidates.
My theory is the Lib Dem vote is very strong - but only in a few seats.
Comments
LDs will also have taken a small knock in the polls through standing down in those seats where the Greens or PC are leading the Remain alliance, now that almost everypollster is only offering people their constituency candidates.
They are also desperate enough to try it and I doubt the Tories have much (if anything) to counter it, except bluster.
Most people go into politics because they wish to achieve an end they believe in for the public good or for the challenge. I suspect Boris is in it for the challenge (similarly Cameron, Osborne, etc). He is not doing it for personal gain other than satisfaction.
That's fifth the odds top three.
If Ferrari aren't competitive enough then Verstappen and Hamilton will likely take the top two places and it becomes a Bottas/Albon duel behind them.
Very impressed with Albon on Sunday.
If the Conservatives don't use that then their level of incompetence and denial does not bode well.