politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

Doing badly against Corbyn is quite an achievement for the LDs' campaign so far. I thought they'd be on 20% at this stage.

I would hope that given they will have to be given more tv time / in the later debates they will have an opportunity to pitch to middle England Remainers.

I think the problem Lib Dem have is they are trying to sound reasonable, when Labour are just throwing sweeties every which way.

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

Laughable. Brexit will not be done for many years. And the rest goes against Tory policy for the last 40 (or 74? or 200?) years.

The Tory manifesto should simply say "The Conservative Party should be in government".

Survation: on normal weightings, undecideds split 49:124 male:female.

Make of that what you will.

Labour's polling for males is half that of the Cons. 18.3% : 39.7%
Labour's polling for females is on par. 24.5% : 25.0 %

I think the undecideds, should they make up their mind, will add a little to the Labour polling here.

SunnyJim said:

Reaction on BF was pretty instant to Survation.

Con Maj in to 1.49 from around 1.6.

My other lay, Con 340+ hasn't moved in quite as markedly.

I can sort of understand that movement in the betting markets, given that Survation was the only pollster putting Labour within single figures of the Tories, (discounting BMG for the moment because they still had the Brexit Party standing everywhere in their latest poll). Although, on the other hand, you could argue that focusing so much on one pollster is a bit irrational when the average lead is clearly over 10%.

Andy_JS said:

SunnyJim said:

Reaction on BF was pretty instant to Survation.

Con Maj in to 1.49 from around 1.6.

My other lay, Con 340+ hasn't moved in quite as markedly.

I can sort of understand that movement, given that Survation was the only pollster putting Labour within single figures of the Tories. Although on the other hand you could argue that focusing so much on one pollster is a bit irrational when the average lead is clearly over 10%.

I suspect it has more to do with the equally irrational perception that just because Survation were closest in 2017 that they may be more reliable than other pollsters this time.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.

She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)

*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.

Arthur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Under the plans, businesses will benefit from an average of 80,000 people per year being trained as apprentice engineers and technicians in renewable energy and transport, civil engineers and skilled tradespeople in sustainable construction, designers, welders and fabricators in low carbon industries, and sustainable agriculture and forestry specialists.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-labour-promise-320000-20903857

Arhhhh, so it is like Mandelson's wheeze. It is basically a catch all term for apprenticeships in trades and attaching "sustainable" buzz words to stuff like construction and farming.

I presume it won't be as bad as Mandy's were trainee shoe makers were included in the figures, as technically they could make Vegan shoes and that would be a sustainable green job.

It sounds like mostly a crock, like most things that are called "green", but more apprenticeships would be a good thing given the current lumpen attitudes in a lot of the building trades. My neighbour who is having a house built had some idiot boys put half his fence posts in upside down. They were so stupid they didn't realise that some of them with their points upwards and others with their points downwards wasn't what he was looking for. They just thought ooh goody, let's have some fun - no clue at all.

I don't disagree with the idea of good vocational training places at all.

O.k, I've seen enough, I don't think Corbyn is trying to win.

I'm calling it now, the LEAVE north is going Tory. You can forget your biased models that have layer upon layer of tactical voting making it almost impossible for the tories to win, the English working and middle class will vote to stop this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1196195190853308417

Labour below 160 seats is most likely.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1196097689701822464
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1196098852237037568

Lol

Brenstien (sorry I cant remember how to spell your name), just changed his model to show Bristol NW as a Tory gain now!

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Whether he does win Iowa or not, and whether he gets any further, fair play to Buttigieg for getting so much attention - jumping the queue has probably annoyed plenty of aged Democrats, but it shows what being bold can manage.

Gabs3 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Seriously kicking off in Hong Kong tonight.

The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.

And it seems that is what the world we be like for a long time to come as well. It's depressing as hell.

The Chinese government may be ruthless authoritarians but one thing you can say for them is they don't take any nonsense seeking to undermine the unity of the state, Sturgeon and Blackford take note next time you complain about Scotland being oppressed by Westminster

WTF? Unbelievable, though scarily probably representative of today's Tory party.

nunu2 said:

O.k, I've seen enough, I don't think Corbyn is trying to win.

I'm calling it now, the LEAVE north is going Tory. You can forget your biased models that have layer upon layer of tactical voting making it almost impossible for the tories to win, the English working and middle class will vote to stop this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1196195190853308417

Labour below 160 seats is most likely.

That interview was done in July 2015.

Arguments against state-run internet, number 194527:
https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/17/iran-shuts-down-countrys-internet-in-the-wake-of-fuel-protests/

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

nunu2 said:

O.k, I've seen enough, I don't think Corbyn is trying to win.

I'm calling it now, the LEAVE north is going Tory. You can forget your biased models that have layer upon layer of tactical voting making it almost impossible for the tories to win, the English working and middle class will vote to stop this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1196195190853308417

Labour below 160 seats is most likely.

That interview was done in July 2015.

Has he changed his mind since then?

I doubt Corbyn has ever changed his mind!

I think @old_labour 's point is that he had these opinions in 2017 and it didn't stop Labour increasing their vote share. Or specifically, if he wasn't trying to win then, then it didn't harm them.

Personal view: I think the Magic Grandpa act is wearing a little thin now.

Polls say it all at the moment.

It's now a question of how large the majority is going to be.

Progressive politics in the country needs a reset. The right / hard-right are cruising!

The UK is going to pay a huge price and it will unravel very fast. You have been warned.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

That Survation poll puts Labour in real trouble.

We did not really need a poll to tell us that

8 of the last 9 polls have had the Conservatives in the 40's (oldest first).

42 - 40 - 43 - 41 - 37* - 44 - 45 - 45 - 42

(*That 37 is BMG, which did not correct its poll for Brexit not having a candidate in 350 or so seats. It has confirmed it will in its next one.)

Remember, May only got 42.4%. LibDems are on 13%. They got 7.2% last time.

If Conservative ARE around 45% and the LibDems around 13% (Delta poll had them on 11%) then the net change from 2017 is C + 2.6%, LD + 5.8% - net rise of 3.2% or a 1.6% swing C -> LD.

Anecdotally, the LD vote is lumpy. SW London - maybe London generally - will be much better. A few other bright spots - Sheffield Hallam (but only because the Labour MP has proved to be so shite). But those better areas mean consequently no real advance over the Conservatives since 2017 across much the country.

Whilst Brexit Party dropping out of all Tory held seats might not move the dial on the number of seats versus the Labour Party, it does have the effect of pushing the Conservatives maybe 5% ahead of the LibDems in all those Conservative seats the LibDems are targetting. Potential target seats like North Cornwall, North Devon, Cheltenham in the SW got much tougher for the LibDems to gain by Brexit Party standing down.

If the Tory vote holds in the mid 40's, laying LD seats looks the way to go. Unless and until the Labour vote starts to sink.

rcs1000 said:

Personal view: I think the Magic Grandpa act is wearing a little thin now.

Everyone can see how the trick is done.....

Mango said:

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

Laughable. Brexit will not be done for many years. And the rest goes against Tory policy for the last 40 (or 74? or 200?) years.

The Tory manifesto should simply say "The Conservative Party should be in government".

As Michael Heseltine always says, the Conservative Party is about being in power.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1196097689701822464
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1196098852237037568

That’s interesting.

I haven’t bet on Bristol NW as I thought it just the sort of seat that’d be swinging away from the Tories.

Pulpstar said:

I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.

Most won’t think in such a multi-layered way but I’ve heard one or two say that they’ve made their peace with Brexit (it needs to be tried for 10 years or so) and they think although Boris is very flawed they think he’ll govern in a fairly centrist way.

Pulpstar said:

Helpful of Prince Andrew to freeze the race for a few days now too.

We need a voxpop or two on Edwards’s latest attempts at amateur dramatics now.

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Personal view: I think the Magic Grandpa act is wearing a little thin now.

Everyone can see how the trick is done.....

Corbyn does look a lot older than he did in 2017, imo. He also sounds quite frail although that can probably be explained by a cold.

OldKingCole said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

I'd hope you're right, but I'm not impressed by Labour either and I really can't see the LD's breaking though so significantly as to be a real force in Parliament.
Very depressing.

The LDs might do better than expected in London and university areas.

Pulpstar said:

I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.

It's much more likely that voters in the Tory/LibDem space are put off by the risk of enabling a Corbyn government.

LostPassword said:

Pulpstar said:

I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.

It's much more likely that voters in the Tory/LibDem space are put off by the risk of enabling a Corbyn government.

Discussion in my corner of the pub yesterday was about how we could stop Priti. Lab, LD or Green.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eristdoof said:

camel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.

She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)

*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.

Thumbs up to that last comment.

What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.

Or maybe, that was what the press wanted to concentrate on.

But of course, part of the trick for party leaders in a election is to get the media to move the debate towards your own strong points.

Casino_Royale said:

OldKingCole said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

I'd hope you're right, but I'm not impressed by Labour either and I really can't see the LD's breaking though so significantly as to be a real force in Parliament.
Very depressing.

The LDs might do better than expected in London and university areas.

The LDs will do better than expected in some seats. Labour will do better than expected in some seats. The conservatives will do better than exxpected in some seats, the BNP will do better than expected in some seats.
If not, your "expectations" are way out of kilter.

Casino_Royale said:

Mango said:

HYUFD said:

Gove campaign up and running

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1196147892865716226?s=20

Laughable. Brexit will not be done for many years. And the rest goes against Tory policy for the last 40 (or 74? or 200?) years.

The Tory manifesto should simply say "The Conservative Party should be in government".

As Michael Heseltine always says, the Conservative Party is about being in power.

Surely that's the point of every serious political party, as opposed to protest group. What point is politics if you can't get into power?

eristdoof said:

The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.

I think the only twentieth century PMs to leave the Commons soon after losing office were Baldwin, Macmillan, Thatcher and Major. Everyone else stayed on at least for some time. Several remained as party leaders or rejoined the Cabinet. Admittedly Campbell-Bannerman, Bonar Law and Chamberlaim died before the next election so they might have retired as well.

OldKingCole said:

LostPassword said:

Pulpstar said:

I wonder if some Lib Dem voters having mentally ceeded that a Tory majority IS happening are heading to the Tories on the basis that a big majority for Johnson likely leads to a softer Brexit than a small one.

It's much more likely that voters in the Tory/LibDem space are put off by the risk of enabling a Corbyn government.

Discussion in my corner of the pub yesterday was about how we could stop Priti. Lab, LD or Green.

That you are having to discuss one of several unclear options ensures she will be returned....

eek said:

eristdoof said:

camel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.

She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)

*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.

Thumbs up to that last comment.

In an area why the only possible winners are Labour or the Tories I think most Lib Dem voters (for I would be one most of the time) I don't think it's that surprising.

The only people who vote Lib Dem around here are the true believers + those who don't mind a wasted vote.

If this was a response to my comment then you misinterpreted it. I meant thumbs up to "*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged. " which is not apperciated by many who post here.

..

MarqueeMark said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Survation: from 35% - 29% to 42% - 28%.

Either their previous poll was an outlier, or the Tories have had a cracking past 10 days....

And the LibDems have lost nearly 1 in 4 of their voters in that time.

#FearOfCorbyn

It is a mistake to compare today's Survation poll to their last poll.

The poll for GMB is a phone poll, the 35/29 poll was an online poll.

There's some methodological differences.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: penalty for Hamilton after the race, for colliding with Albon, promotes Sainz to his first ever podium position.

Can anyone explain why F1 decided to go all American and throw a 'tactical caution' to spice up the race with 15 laps to go? Ruined what should have been a great race as the various different plans came together at the end.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1196205748583309315?s=20

Boris is going to have so much fun pressing his buttons. He will laugh and Corbyn will lose it.

ThomastheCat said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.

Less than that before postal ballots go out.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

the various different plans came together at the end.

Not sure Vettel and Leclerc would described it quite like that!

I think that's the first time I ever remember two Ferraris taking each other out, although they both got involved in a big one on the first lap in Singapore a couple of years ago. Rule number one of motorsport - don't crash into your team mate!

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eristdoof said:

camel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.

She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)

*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.

Thumbs up to that last comment.

What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.

Sound money. The only party not wanting to ramp up the deficit.

People are not interested in sense though. When it comes to a Christmas election there is no sanity clause.

I reckon we are in for Con 360 seats, as I have been thinking for a couple of weeks, then a lost decade of Brexitism.

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eristdoof said:

camel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.

She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)

*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.

Thumbs up to that last comment.

What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.

Sound money. The only party not wanting to ramp up the deficit.

I’d vote LibDem in a heartbeat if the bastards would let me.

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eristdoof said:

camel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

brokenwheel said:

Like most other pollsters methodology has changed to reading out only candidates standing in the constituency.

The Tories almost automatically getting a 5% swing from the Brexit Party in this Survation poll due to Farage's party only standing in 274 seats, but interesting that they also seem to have taken some support from the LDs as well.

The Lib Dems are having a terrible war so far. Seems even worse than 2017. At least then Farron was getting some tv exposure, perhaps not quite for the reason he hoped.

I think for Jo Swinson to declare homosexuality to be a sin might be best described as 'the nuclear option'.

She needs something. Being outperformed 2:1 by the tories on the 18-34 vote isn't great. They also are performing abysmally on this poll in the north* (4.7% - eek!)

*The dangers of drilling down on polls acknowledged.

Thumbs up to that last comment.

What the LibDems need is a reason to vote LibDem. They had about a week to get their message across while Labour and Conservatives were saying nothing, and wasted it with incessant whining about the debates being unfair.

Sound money. The only party not wanting to ramp up the deficit.

I’d vote LibDem in a heartbeat if the bastards would let me.

Same with some of my Isle of Wight relatives, but their Green candidate is a good un.

ThomastheCat said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.

Er... 23 days is more than three weeks.

ydoethur said:

ThomastheCat said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.

Less than that before postal ballots go out.

The postal votes are not swing voters though. Either nostalgic pensioners or Labour tribalists. It is turnout of undecideds and the Millenials that matters. I think that will be low and bad for Labour.

Sandpit said:

eristdoof said:

The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.

For everything that can be said of Mrs May, she does genuinely care about public service, and representing the people of Maidenhead.

For all his many faults, Gordon Brown stood in 2015 too, although he was overcome by the SNP wave at that election.

No he didn’t. The Labour candidate was Kenny Selbie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkcaldy_and_Cowdenbeath_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Fysics_Teacher said:

ThomastheCat said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.

Er... 23 days is more than three weeks.

Damn those know-it-all teachers.....

As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18

Con majority 78

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ThomastheCat said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.

And 8 days to postal voting commencing

Also eight days to register.
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

ThomastheCat said:

Casino_Royale said:

nunu2 said:

brokenwheel said:

SunnyJim said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1196242566649434112

Just a hunch but i'm guessing Survation just fell out of favour with the keyboard Corbynistas.

Wow.

I was waiting for Survation......


As I said the leave north is going Tory.

This website overreacts to any move or trend either way.

So chill.

A reasonable Tory majority is currently looking likely. But a lot can change in 3 weeks.

3 weeks ? It’s only 23 days now until polls open.

That's two days more than 3 weeks.

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

eristdoof said:

The recent trend has been for ex-PMs to leave the HoC at the next GE, if not before. Assuming Mrs May keeps her seat she will be bucking this trend. Before Mrs T, this seemed to be the norm with Callaghan, Wilson and Heath all reelected after having been PM.

For everything that can be said of Mrs May, she does genuinely care about public service, and representing the people of Maidenhead.

For all his many faults, Gordon Brown stood in 2015 too, although he was overcome by the SNP wave at that election.

No he didn’t. The Labour candidate was Kenny Selbie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkcaldy_and_Cowdenbeath_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Damn, you're right, and too late to edit now. Why did I think he did stand?

He remained an active and hardworking backbench constituency MP. So in a sense you were right. But he made the decision not to stand in 2015 quite well in advance - I think even before the 2014 referendum.

Deleted.