politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at the Welsh constituency betting
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Think they've tightened up who can access the page after that fake poll a couple of weeks ago.ThomastheCat said:Ye old GE wiki page seems slow to update its poll graph - flashbacks to 2015 when it would only update when Ed had surge 😂
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Yep ... that's what I thought - the odds should be 3/1 or more to tempt in my view.DavidL said:
I think it’s possible but those are really skinny odds.peter_from_putney said:Under Ladbrokes' special GE bets section, they are offering odds of 6/4 against Labour failing to gain an individual seat not won in 2017. At first sight, this would seem to be an unlikely outcome, but does anyone think it offers value?
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Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....1
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But she polled under 50% in 2015, when UKIP got 22%. The Brexit Party are standing here. She could easily poll nearer to 40% than 60%.PaulM said:
They have on the Tory end, not so much Labour.Sandpit said:
Damn, looks like the bookies are learning from their mistakes last time out - when they had dead certs priced at 1/10 for most of the campaign.PaulM said:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/bromsgrovefranklyn said:Where can I get odds on the Bromsgrove constituency, please
1/33 Tories
25/1 Labour
For example Angela Raynor is 1/5 to win Ashton under Lyne with PP. Ashton has been Labour since 1935, and she got over 60% of the vote last time.0 -
Don't give up hope. Don't be a gloomster!murali_s said:Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
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Talking about being slow to update its polling data. This is also the case with Anthony Wells' UK Polling Report. Although the commentaries are pretty much up to date, the latest polling data in the chart on the right hand side dates back over 3 weeks to 25 October!ThomastheCat said:Ye old GE wiki page seems slow to update its poll graph - flashbacks to 2015 when it would only update when Ed had surge 😂
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Marr - Is Nato the most successful military alliance in history?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn: “I’m not sure I’d define it as that”
Left wing Trump.0 -
Alex Salmond is a twat.NorthCadboll said:
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"malcolmg said:
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.Theuniondivvie said:I know I shouldn't be but I am slightly shocked at how enthusiastic Ruth is in pursuit of a dollar.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.1 -
Your model is one of the few glimmers of hope I have.Barnesian said:
Don't give up hope. Don't be a gloomster!murali_s said:Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
The only other glimmer is what is happening on the ground here in Wimbledon. Lib Dems exceptionally strong with many former Tory and Labour voters all saying they will vote Lib Dem. Better than evens chance that Wimbledon falls to the LDs in my opinion.
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Labour have a poor leader - not sure why they persist with him.murali_s said:Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
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In Corbyn's worldview the wrong side won the Cold War.FrancisUrquhart said:Marr - Is Nato the most successful military alliance in history?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn: “I’m not sure I’d define it as that”
Left wing Trump.0 -
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.0 -
Alistair, why is he a twat , nothing wrong with having a programme on RT, less propaganda than if he had done BBC.Alistair said:
Alex Salmond is a twat.NorthCadboll said:
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"malcolmg said:
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.Theuniondivvie said:I know I shouldn't be but I am slightly shocked at how enthusiastic Ruth is in pursuit of a dollar.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.0 -
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.0 -
What if it were Davidson taking Putin's shilling, would you have the same view of her as you do of Salmond doing the same?malcolmg said:
Alistair, why is he a twat , nothing wrong with having a programme on RT, less propaganda than if he had done BBC.Alistair said:
Alex Salmond is a twat.NorthCadboll said:
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"malcolmg said:
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.Theuniondivvie said:I know I shouldn't be but I am slightly shocked at how enthusiastic Ruth is in pursuit of a dollar.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.0 -
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.0 -
Sandpit said:
Leclerc for a podium? He's got a brand new engine which only has to last two races, will therefore be able to run in much higher modes for the majority of the afternoon.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/11/brazil-pre-race-2019.html
I think this looks like pretty fair value at best odds of 4/1 (several firms). After all, with his ability and his new-engined car, he should be in the top 5 or 6 within the first couple of laps. He then has plenty of time to challenge for a top 3 spot.Sandpit said:
Leclerc for a podium? He's got a brand new engine which only has to last two races, will therefore be able to run in much higher modes for the majority of the afternoon.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
F1: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/11/brazil-pre-race-2019.html1 -
Because amongst the membership he's very popular. He's very good at engaging the base without engaging the rest of the population.ThomastheCat said:
Labour have a poor leader - not sure why they persist with him.murali_s said:Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
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Even if she did it would still be enough for the win.MarqueeMark said:
But she polled under 50% in 2015, when UKIP got 22%. The Brexit Party are standing here. She could easily poll nearer to 40% than 60%.PaulM said:
They have on the Tory end, not so much Labour.Sandpit said:
Damn, looks like the bookies are learning from their mistakes last time out - when they had dead certs priced at 1/10 for most of the campaign.PaulM said:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/bromsgrovefranklyn said:Where can I get odds on the Bromsgrove constituency, please
1/33 Tories
25/1 Labour
For example Angela Raynor is 1/5 to win Ashton under Lyne with PP. Ashton has been Labour since 1935, and she got over 60% of the vote last time.
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No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.0 -
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Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)0 -
Well, we might as well cancel student debt as much of it will never be repaid. Although lots of high earning students will pay more taxes.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Oh dear. Ms Arcuri is miffed with Boris. Sounds like he's tossed her aside. Isn't returning her calls. Treating her like a Friday-night floozie.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Still, she did jolly well out of Boris's generosity. Try showing a little gratitude, sweetheart.0 -
Thank you Sunil. Clear movement, as we would expect following the withdrawal of half the Farage team.Sunil_Prasannan said:** Drum roll **
Preliminary* Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 17th November:
CON 41.3% (+3.3)
LAB 29.4% (+1.1)
LD 14.8% (-1.4)
BXP 6.3% (-2.8%)
CON lead 11.9% (+2.2)
Ten polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll.
(* I say preliminary in case any other polls are late to the ELBOW party!)0 -
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.0 -
Here's a few things that I didn't know, to set the context a bit for this general election.
1. At GE2017 Corbyn won more votes for Labour in England (11.39 million) than Tony Blair at GE1997 (11.35 million).
2. Also in England, Labour won 36 more seats at GE2017 (227) than at their nadir under these boundaries at GE2010 (191).
3. In Wales, the Conservative Party share of the vote at GE2017 (33.6%) was their equal highest (with 1935) since at least before 1918.
4. At GE2017 a record 21.7% of all votes were cast by post. This means that the election will substantially have occurred fairly soon, now that nominations have closed.
5. Turnout for postal votes issued at GE2017 was 83.1%, compared to the electorate-wide turnout of 68.8%, which I think makes the turnout for non-postal votes to be 65.7%. This might be something to consider, as any decline in turnout, say due to the weather, is plausibly more likely to affect non-postal voters.2 -
Not just high earning students...everybody will. The current system is already a capped graduate tax.OldKingCole said:
Well, we might as well cancel student debt as much of it will never be repaid. Although lots of high earning students will pay more taxes.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.1 -
That's chalk and cheese tho'.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
Folk didn't want their own money being used to take care of them when they had dementia; they may also think Corbotel might be a bit daffy but I think that has less cut through.0 -
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.MarqueeMark said:
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
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An old work colleague of mine has a combination of pro-Brexit, anti-Brexit (NHS threat) and Tory attack videos on her wall. Quite how she'll be voting I'm not sure but it won't be for the Lib Dems.0
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Nonsense. People on here, from all parties, were calling it a disaster as soon as it was announced. That it was a political mistake is just about the only thing everyone agreed on.CorrectHorseBattery said:The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
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The method they proposed to achieve it wasn't popular at all.murali_s said:
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.MarqueeMark said:
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)0 -
I think the concept of a single provider being the best idea even to the yout will be very strange. They all like the idea of regularly switching between different mobile providers to get the latest greatest phone.MaxPB said:
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.0 -
Everyone I have spoken to reject is as nonsense and really do not want Corbyn controlling their broadbandMaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.0 -
But why didn't May's vote collapse then? She got the most votes in years.glw said:
Nonsense. People on here, from all parties, were calling it a disaster as soon as it was announced. That it was a political mistake is just about the only thing everyone agreed on.CorrectHorseBattery said:The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
I'm not saying it wasn't a bad policy (it was), it's just that I don't see any objective evidence it actually hurt her vote.
The reason she came unstuck was the don't knows going to Labour. And most of those were under the age of 40 hence this policy wasn't an attack on them anyway.
In any other election, 43% would have been a landslide. There's simply no basis to claim the dementia tax was what killed May's majority.0 -
Don't feed the trolls...0
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I am still very bemused by how the Tories managed to have yet another absolutely crap week, still no real policies and yet still extend their lead in the polls.0
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If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.0 -
Now that is a policy Boris should be offering.FrancisUrquhart said:...widespread free public wifi ...
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Well it depends which polls you look at, doesn't it.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by how the Tories managed to have yet another absolutely crap week, still no real policies and yet still extend their lead in the polls.
I believe the average gap is now something like:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1196025425094496258
So actually Labour is up to 32%, which means they're still climbing.
The Tories are on 42%, so they're climbing too.
Soon one party is going to stop climbing. And I don't believe for one second the Tories are going to poll 45%.0 -
Honestly, it's only popular on the surface. "Of course I want free broadband, but how is he going to deliver it?!" is literally the reaction of all my non-Tory voting friends. It's a credibility issue for Corbyn and McDonnell.murali_s said:
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.MarqueeMark said:
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)0 -
It's the concept of the STATE being that single provider that is the worry.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the concept of a single provider being the best idea even to the yout will be very strange. They all like the idea of regularly switching between different mobile providers to get the latest greatest phone.MaxPB said:
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.1 -
He was looking croaky and ropy on Marr today. He's got two days to shape up.murali_s said:
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.MarqueeMark said:
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)0 -
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.LostPassword said:
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.0 -
Because a majority of the population get their information from headlines in newspapers or social media.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by how the Tories managed to have yet another absolutely crap week, still no real policies and yet still extend their lead in the polls.
0 -
I reckon it's the next two weeks that are crucial - but the debate is very important.MarqueeMark said:
He was looking croaky and ropy on Marr today. He's got two days to shape up.murali_s said:
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.MarqueeMark said:
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
If by the 1st there's still a massive gap, I think it's not looking good at all.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn is starting to look his age. Perhaps CCHQ's dirty tricks squad has been sneezing in his general direction.MarqueeMark said:
He was looking croaky and ropy on Marr today. He's got two days to shape up.murali_s said:
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.MarqueeMark said:
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)0 -
I don't think everyone on this site is islamophobic. But you definitely are.Philip_Thompson said:
No I would not. The topic here is politics and it is @Noo trolling to change the topic.Chris said:
But of course if people were behaving like that when the topic was antisemitism, you'd all be up in arms about what a disgrace it is.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL no. Just feeding the troll.Theuniondivvie said:Aren't all the folk replying to 'Good morning, islamophobes' with 'Good morning whatevs' making an admission?
The unstated assumption is often that prejudice against Jews is wrong but prejudice against Muslims is only natural considering.
If someone came here and started every day saying good morning antisemites I'd think they were trolling too.
If I thought everyone on a site I was going to was an antisemite then I wouldn't greet people like that, I'd stop going to that site.
Comparing Muslims to the KKK is like comparing Jews to Nazis. It's not acceptable in any world.
This place has an islamophobia problem. Until that is addressed, I will continue to call it out.0 -
She polled massively more than Cameron because the UKIP vote collapsed from nearly 4 million to 600,000.CorrectHorseBattery said:
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.LostPassword said:
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.0 -
And I would have thought those kinds of voters would have been put off by the dementia tax - but alas no.PaulM said:
She polled massively more than Cameron because the UKIP vote collapsed from nearly 4 million to 600,000.CorrectHorseBattery said:
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.LostPassword said:
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
Like I said, I don't doubt it had an impact, I just don't think it's the reason Labour polled 40%. That's all.0 -
What is bad about Labour's policy is that the overdue legal separation of Openreach from BT — BT still own Openreach but they are now a separate company — does appear to be working. There are now several companies other than Openreach aiming to roll-out FTTC/FTTP to millions of homes and businesses, and Openreach itself has increased its own roll-out in order to remain competitive. It is not clear that a faster roll-out is possible without substantially increasing the cost, which is around £500 per premises passed.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the concept of a single provider being the best idea even to the yout will be very strange. They all like the idea of regularly switching between different mobile providers to get the latest greatest phone.MaxPB said:
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.
Labour's plan may bring these programmes to a halt, or if not that then it might see them being curtailed, delaying widespread fibre broadband availability rather than accelerating it.
Labour could barely have chosen a worse time to propose nationalisation and a de facto state monopoly for broadband.2 -
Quite right. If you believed the polls, Theresa was heading for one of the greatest democratic endorsements in global political history. You don't go from that to losing seats simply because of a poorly marketed social-care policy. Something else must have been afoot - most likely crap polling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.LostPassword said:
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.MaxPB said:
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.Foxy said:
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.MaxPB said:Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.1 -
Well that's a very good spot if you're right ... those nice folk at Unibet will give you odds of 2/1 against the Yellow team, compared with 2/5 for the Tory hot favourites.murali_s said:
Your model is one of the few glimmers of hope I have.Barnesian said:
Don't give up hope. Don't be a gloomster!murali_s said:Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
The only other glimmer is what is happening on the ground here in Wimbledon. Lib Dems exceptionally strong with many former Tory and Labour voters all saying they will vote Lib Dem. Better than evens chance that Wimbledon falls to the LDs in my opinion.0 -
For there to be significant tactical voting requires a level "I can't stand him/them" higher than the opposition partySunil_Prasannan said:** Drum roll **
Preliminary* Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 17th November:
CON 41.3% (+3.3)
LAB 29.4% (+1.1)
LD 14.8% (-1.4)
BXP 6.3% (-2.8%)
CON lead 11.9% (+2.2)
Ten polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll.
(* I say preliminary in case any other polls are late to the ELBOW party!)
If a party has a 11% lead, 43% share and a leader with a small net *positive* rating how much tactical voting will there really be and will it really be more than last time?
Prehaps the party with a leader on minus 43% net rating is not going to recieve a more tactical vote than last time when compared to the leader with a + 4 net rating.
Just maybe.0 -
And Labour had more votes than Blair got in 2005, do people really think that was because of a social care policy? I was there in 2017 and I witnessed the youth engagement, it wasn't about that, it was because for the first time something different was being offered.Stark_Dawning said:
Quite right. If you believed the polls, Theresa was heading for one of the greatest democratic endorsements in global political history. You don't go from that to losing seats simply because of a poorly marketed social-care policy. Something else must have been afoot - most likely crap polling.
I'm not saying it will work this time - I just think it's wrong and misleading to say that the reason Labour did so well was because of a social care policy. Labour did well because they weren't the Tories.0 -
The deputy editor of The Spectator doesn’t know what apologia means. Quite sweet.
https://twitter.com/Freddygray31/status/1196019041665781761?s=200 -
My view is that Lynton Crosby's presidential campaign for the manifestly unpresidential Theresa May cost the Conservative Party its majority but the Wizard of Oz did successfully spin the blame onto Nick and Fiona's manifesto. Ironically, dropping the dementia tax even undermined its claims to be "strong and stable".CorrectHorseBattery said:
But why didn't May's vote collapse then? She got the most votes in years.glw said:
Nonsense. People on here, from all parties, were calling it a disaster as soon as it was announced. That it was a political mistake is just about the only thing everyone agreed on.CorrectHorseBattery said:The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
I'm not saying it wasn't a bad policy (it was), it's just that I don't see any objective evidence it actually hurt her vote.
The reason she came unstuck was the don't knows going to Labour. And most of those were under the age of 40 hence this policy wasn't an attack on them anyway.
In any other election, 43% would have been a landslide. There's simply no basis to claim the dementia tax was what killed May's majority.
On the other side, Jeremy Corbyn played a blinder. For instance, linking the rise in crime directly to Theresa May's cutting 20,000 police officers.
For the avoidance of doubt, I am not Boris, even though he and CCHQ clearly agree with my analysis and have therefore replaced Lynton Crosby with his protege, Isaac Levido, and pledged to recruit the missing 20,000 coppers.0 -
Well there's two different things there.CorrectHorseBattery said:May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
(1) Why did May lose polling share during the campaign? Many argue it's because she ran a crap campaign, of which the Dementia Tax was a large part. She still polled more than Cameron because of the Brexit effect - clearly two things can have contrary effects at the same time.
(2) Why did Opposition support coalesce around Corbyn's Labour Party? Many argue that it was because the voters were tired of austerity, and Corbyn offered them free stuff. Or they argue that Corbyn is a good campaigner and genuinely inspired support. I tend to the view that voters baulked at the idea of May winning a thumping majority for various reasons, Brexit being one, but May's own personal weaknesses being another (which the Dementia Tax highlighted) and so voted Corbyn as the only way to prevent that majority.
Both these things need to happen again if Labour are to avoid defeat. It's been said that Johnson has not had a good campaign, but he doesn't seem to have dropped a Dementia Tax scale clanger yet. The offers of free stuff from Labour are not that convincing because the Tories are offering lots of free stuff, and so Labour are having to turn it up to 11 in response. If Corbyn did genuinely inspire support in 2017 he is now relatively a tarnished figure.
So that leaves Brexit. Will Remain voters panic at the thought of a Johnson majority and rally once more to the uncertain banner of the Labour Party? I find this hard to judge. On its own though, it won't be enough to avoid a Johnson majority - for that Labour also need the Johnson campaign to go awry - but it might be enough to make the difference between a modest majority and a landslide.0 -
Absolutely if she was not a serving politician. Any coverage on RT I have watched has been far better than anything you see from the very limited view UK stations take. No beef with people working and you can like or not their output, given how bad UK media is as state propaganda, I doubt anyone could be worse.Sandpit said:
What if it were Davidson taking Putin's shilling, would you have the same view of her as you do of Salmond doing the same?malcolmg said:
Alistair, why is he a twat , nothing wrong with having a programme on RT, less propaganda than if he had done BBC.Alistair said:
Alex Salmond is a twat.NorthCadboll said:
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"malcolmg said:
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.Theuniondivvie said:I know I shouldn't be but I am slightly shocked at how enthusiastic Ruth is in pursuit of a dollar.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.0 -
Could be worse.malcolmg said:
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.Theuniondivvie said:I know I shouldn't be but I am slightly shocked at how enthusiastic Ruth is in pursuit of a dollar.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
She could be facing a trial for attempted rape0 -
Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority
https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain0 -
Unimpressed with the BBC right now
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful0 -
Another slither of hope...
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...0 -
Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?nunu2 said:Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority
https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain
You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.0 -
One thing that stood out from 2017 was Labour found a lot more new voters on Election Day. It wasn’t just a case so much of them taking a lot more votes from other parties .
It was a case of bigger turnout than expected from Labour leaning voters . You can clearly see that if you look at what happened with the ICM final poll which had the Tories 46 to 34 up . You can’t explain Labour adding on 7 points by movement from other parties .
It’s even more notable with the BMG poll . Perhaps evidence of a better ground game .
The Survation did best because it didn’t down weight certain pro Labour voter demographics according to history , but was happier to take them at their word.1 -
stranger things have happened, lots of conspiracies about as you say.CarlottaVance said:
Could be worse.malcolmg said:
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.Theuniondivvie said:I know I shouldn't be but I am slightly shocked at how enthusiastic Ruth is in pursuit of a dollar.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
She could be facing a trial for attempted rape0 -
Be glad, it's desperation.Charles said:Unimpressed with the BBC right now
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful0 -
Absolutely disgusting. Mosley was a Staffordshire lad as any ful kno.Charles said:Unimpressed with the BBC right now
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful0 -
Did they mix up the orderCharles said:Unimpressed with the BBC right now
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
PS: Lucky you are not Scottish or you would be permanently unimpressed.0 -
OT in the interests of good taste and decorum can everybody please refrain from gags about getting her wet
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/11959618196109189131 -
Ash wasn't outraged by the threat to skilled workers' jobs brought about by M Guillotine's new machine. I am shocked.Theuniondivvie said:The deputy editor of The Spectator doesn’t know what apologia means. Quite sweet.
https://twitter.com/Freddygray31/status/1196019041665781761?s=200 -
Can we also please remember that even in Labour Leave seats, the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain.
If Labour makes clear its policy of a second referendum (and despite the dire polling, I think they all agree Remainers are going back to Labour), they can harmonise the Labour vote in those seats.
I remain absolutely unconvinced that Labour seats who didn't back May when she tried Johnson's approach, are going to back an Etonian this time. I just don't see it.
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.0 -
Does seem an oversight not to mention that he was Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster in a Labour government while a Labour MP.Charles said:Unimpressed with the BBC right now
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
In their partial defence, the show was recorded in Shrewsbury on Monday 7th October - before Johnson had a Brexit Deal, let alone an agreement for a general election - so the question of balance would not then have been so important. They ought to have edited the show, or reordered the episodes so that one was broadcast after the election, though.0 -
That sounds not unlike Bad Al?CarlottaVance said:
0 -
What a shame.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Would also welcome views on the Remain/Leave debate here in terms of voting.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?0 -
Asked if Jeremy Corbyn was a "friend to business", Dame Carolyn (director-general CBI) says: "We look at the policies on the table and we have real concerns that they are going to crack the foundations of our economy."
That's a feature, not a bug.0 -
I didn't compare Muslims to KKK. I compared extremism to extremism.Noo said:
I don't think everyone on this site is islamophobic. But you definitely are.Philip_Thompson said:
No I would not. The topic here is politics and it is @Noo trolling to change the topic.Chris said:
But of course if people were behaving like that when the topic was antisemitism, you'd all be up in arms about what a disgrace it is.Philip_Thompson said:
LOL no. Just feeding the troll.Theuniondivvie said:Aren't all the folk replying to 'Good morning, islamophobes' with 'Good morning whatevs' making an admission?
The unstated assumption is often that prejudice against Jews is wrong but prejudice against Muslims is only natural considering.
If someone came here and started every day saying good morning antisemites I'd think they were trolling too.
If I thought everyone on a site I was going to was an antisemite then I wouldn't greet people like that, I'd stop going to that site.
Comparing Muslims to the KKK is like comparing Jews to Nazis. It's not acceptable in any world.
This place has an islamophobia problem. Until that is addressed, I will continue to call it out.
In your eyes does Muslim = Burqa? Because it doesn't to me.
In your eyes does KKK = Christian? Because it doesn't to me.
I would never compare all Muslims to the KKK but I'm happy to contrast hateful extremists with them.
If you are pandering some sort of notion that Muslims wear burqas then you are Islamophobic. I believe there's probably a billion plus Muslims across the globe who do not.0 -
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.murali_s said:Another slither of hope...
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.0 -
Its impressive to run a campaign with millions of supporters, backing of two main political parties and still manage to collapse.CarlottaVance said:0 -
You must remember there are many of us in the 48% who voted remain support leave in recognisation of democracyCorrectHorseBattery said:Would also welcome views on the Remain/Leave debate here in terms of voting.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?
I do not have a problem with those who want to remain canvassing to re-join but leaving just has to happen first2 -
The in touch Labour Party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.0 -
He was born in Mayfair, actually. That’s not, afaik, currently part of Staffordshire. (Yes, I know his parents were Staffs but we don’t want the bastard!)Theuniondivvie said:
Absolutely disgusting. Mosley was a Staffordshire lad as any ful kno.Charles said:Unimpressed with the BBC right now
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
In fact, @Charles, you could point out it it isn’t even technically correct as he was never a Conservative MP. He was a couponed Unionist for about a year, before sitting as an independent and then joining Labour.0 -
I'm surprised that the BBC licence fee hasn't resonated, but I suspect that it's a sufficient unto the day issue. After all, when is, like me, over 80, 'next year' is a concept that might not mean very much!Black_Rook said:
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.murali_s said:Another slither of hope...
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.0 -
Jennifer Arcuri, shurely?GIN1138 said:0 -
While that is important, what is more important is what young voters believe is being offered. Supposedly plenty last time thought existing student debts would be cancelled and it wasn't, so whether that is now policy or not it matters more if peopel think it is.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
You have to wonder how long the licence fee has got left. I could probably manage without it now, although as I still like watching live sport I’m keeping it for the moment.OldKingCole said:
I'm surprised that the BBC licence fee hasn't resonated, but I suspect that it's a sufficient unto the day issue. After all, when is, like me, over 80, 'next year' is a concept that might not mean very much!Black_Rook said:
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.murali_s said:Another slither of hope...
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.0 -
I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.LostPassword said:
Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?nunu2 said:Tories have a bigger lead in the seats with less than 10,000 vote majority
https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain
You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.
10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?1 -
Why did they vote Labour in 2017 then?maaarsh said:
The in touch Labour Party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.0 -
The ONS is now dumping £10bn per year of student bad debt on the government borrowing so that can be used to reduce student debt for 'free'.kle4 said:
While that is important, what is more important is what young voters believe is being offered. Supposedly plenty last time thought existing student debts would be cancelled and it wasn't, so whether that is now policy or not it matters more if peopel think it is.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
I think the answer is people are prepared to do so, and there are enough seats for it to work, but it won't be easy and requires a lot of the public to be more hard nosed in compromising who they'd rather vote for than the parties themselves have been. If the Tory poll rating is maintained then they have to be quite unlucky, seeing a Lab rise and good tactical voting for LD/PC and SNP, which I think is possible, but that's a lot to put on the shoulders of both Corbyn to pull off another big rise, and voters to act en masse intelligently enough.CorrectHorseBattery said:Would also welcome views on the Remain/Leave debate here in terms of voting.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?0 -
'Students' are, in the main, only students for three years. Their debt is relevant for maybe those three, and perhaps the one before. After that they quickly realise that it's not a significant monthly repayment and they rather forget about it. At least that's my grandparental observation (n=3)!kle4 said:
While that is important, what is more important is what young voters believe is being offered. Supposedly plenty last time thought existing student debts would be cancelled and it wasn't, so whether that is now policy or not it matters more if peopel think it is.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Much like the Leave campaign, remain might need to succeed in spite of itself.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The next generation really don't watch it. Also, in this day and age it is also totally unenforceable.ydoethur said:
You have to wonder how long the licence fee has got left. I could probably manage without it now, although as I still like watching live sport I’m keeping it for the moment.OldKingCole said:
I'm surprised that the BBC licence fee hasn't resonated, but I suspect that it's a sufficient unto the day issue. After all, when is, like me, over 80, 'next year' is a concept that might not mean very much!Black_Rook said:
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.murali_s said:Another slither of hope...
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.
From yesterdays Guardian, basically kids just watch the interwebs.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/nov/16/bbc-plans-to-drop-afternoon-newsround-as-children-go-online1 -
People's Vote was always more interested in stopping Labour than stopping Brexit.0
