FPT - I'd take that Guardian John Harris walkabout in Guildford with a pinch of salt - his sympathies are far too obvious and he'll want to please his readers and highlight voters who think/act like he would - but I'd say that whilst the LDs will do well, and maybe even win, they don't look like they're going to knock it out the park.
Well the big unkown in Guilford is how many remain tories who voted for Anne Milton as a Conservative MP are going to give her their support again this time.
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote Boris
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.
We all know he can't keep his, erm, Johnson, in his pants, yes that's priced in - but if he's been doling out public money to his mistress (as opposed to a friend) then he's in big trouble and could well be forced to resign.
Well he would be arrested and possibly charged.
We know from the Blair Cash For Honours investigation that the Police would prosecute a sitting PM if the evidence were there. Blair always said that he would have resigned instantly if arrested. Not sure Boris would, especially if it interfered with Brexit, but the possibility would definitely be there.
The biggest difficulty with professional gambling is surely getting on with sufficient size and for exchange the Betfair Premium charge ?
Yes, Paddypower are limiting me to £1.50 on constituencies, though other bookies have not caught up with me yet.
I bet on football, but not profitably (though if Leicester City win the PL again...). Politics is something that I feel that I have an edge on though and makes me £1000 or so per year. Not enough to live on though.
My Spreadex looks good, the spreads do seem to be lagging the polls. I reckon Con 355 should be the midpoint. The gearing keeps me from upping stakes too much.
If I do well this year, I expect PaddyPower will limit me subsequently just as Betfair Sportsbook have.
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
Some very generous odds on Con Holds in Scotland, eg:
Banff and Buchan 6/5 Moray EVS Gordon 11/10 Dumfries and Galloway 3/4
Are you on?
I was in Moray on Friday night for a dinner speaking to an SNP activist. She was quite pessimistic about the SNP regaining the seat. She pointed out that Moray came closer to voting to leave the EU than any other seat in Scotland (I haven't checked this) and with the remainer vote split it was looking a tough ask. She was pretty bullish about the SNP generally but was twitchy about her own patch.
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
Newport East is one that will I think trend Tory over time. A lot of Bristolians are moving into the M4 corridor in search of cheaper housing now the Severn Bridge tolls have been abolished. While normally these would be Labour voters, there will probably be a backlash over the decision not to extend the M48 across the Glamorgan levels to relieve the pressure on the M4 tunnels.
I would however be surprised if it fell on this occasion.
Have they *still* not sorted out the Brynglas tunnels? They were a massive bottleneck two decades ago!
No, it’s still a bottle neck, and so much of the benefit of reducing the Severn Tolls to zero stops ten miles further west in Newport because you join the queue at the Brynglas tunnels. Traffic is dreadful in rush hour and on a holiday Summer evening can essentially snake from the Severn Bridge (and sometimes gets caught up with Bristol traffic too and goes back to Jct 18 for Bath). Thanks Mark Drakeford, take a bow.
That's completely mad, although to be fair they should really have addressed the tunnels when they built the second Severn bridge back in the '90s. Doesn't take a genius to work out that six lanes across the two bridges, down to two lanes for the tunnel isn't going to work out!
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
Some very generous odds on Con Holds in Scotland, eg:
Banff and Buchan 6/5 Moray EVS Gordon 11/10 Dumfries and Galloway 3/4
Are you on?
I was in Moray on Friday night for a dinner speaking to an SNP activist. She was quite pessimistic about the SNP regaining the seat. She pointed out that Moray came closer to voting to leave the EU than any other seat in Scotland (I haven't checked this) and with the remainer vote split it was looking a tough ask. She was pretty bullish about the SNP generally but was twitchy about her own patch.
I pointed out the other day that the Brexit vote was concentrated in the Tory-held seats. Moray for example was 49.9% Leave....
I haven't done any betting for while now, and I think those angles are more difficult to exploit these days, but for sure if you know what you're doing you can beat the bookies. The real problem is getting accounts closed down/limited to peanuts.
To get round this, I guess you either have to find opportunities on the exchanges, or find other people to put your bets on. Or use cash at shops - although they also get to know you and often limit you, and this must have got worse since I was doing it. I was once accused of being part of a "cartel" when trying to put 500 quid on the result of a football match on the printed coupon.
You might want to look at the crypto markets - the biggest one right now is Augur, Gnosis is just opening up. They can't penalize you for winning, because they don't know who you are.
I think they'll prove profitable for political betting because they're dominated by libertarians, and libertarians are great people to bet against. (See Ron Paul, Andrew Yang, etc etc).
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
Some very generous odds on Con Holds in Scotland, eg:
Banff and Buchan 6/5 Moray EVS Gordon 11/10 Dumfries and Galloway 3/4
Are you on?
I was in Moray on Friday night for a dinner speaking to an SNP activist. She was quite pessimistic about the SNP regaining the seat. She pointed out that Moray came closer to voting to leave the EU than any other seat in Scotland (I haven't checked this) and with the remainer vote split it was looking a tough ask. She was pretty bullish about the SNP generally but was twitchy about her own patch.
I pointed out the other day that the Brexit vote was concentrated in the Tory-held seats. Moray for example was 49.9% Leave....
Really? So close to people having to say nearly all areas of Scotland voted remain rather than literally all
@Richard_Tyndall@Philip_Thompson I have upgraded my model to explicitly model green tactical voting by constituency and also BXP tactical voting.
It turns out that the assumption of BXP tactical votes in non-Tory seats is critical. Richard suggested 50% of current BXP voters would tactically vote Tory and none Labour.
This gives Con/Lab/LD 336/211/32 Con gain Blackpool S, Dagenham, Darlington, G Grimsby, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, W Brom West, Gower, Bolton NE, Reading E.
Well that was an enlightening set of polls from last night, especially the constituency polling.
Could we see a few Tory gains or unlikely holds with a split opposition between Lab and LD - 40/30/30 results?
Highly likely.
Tactical voting alone is not going to save Remain.
Say I ived in Kensington and wanted to stop the Tories I genuinely wouldn't know who to vote for to do that. Labour is the incumbent but the constituency polling shows Libdems in second, but then again constituency polling has been crap in the past, then again Labour are more stronger locally.
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
Newport East is one that will I think trend Tory over time. A lot of Bristolians are moving into the M4 corridor in search of cheaper housing now the Severn Bridge tolls have been abolished. While normally these would be Labour voters, there will probably be a backlash over the decision not to extend the M48 across the Glamorgan levels to relieve the pressure on the M4 tunnels.
I would however be surprised if it fell on this occasion.
Have they *still* not sorted out the Brynglas tunnels? They were a massive bottleneck two decades ago!
No, it’s still a bottle neck, and so much of the benefit of reducing the Severn Tolls to zero stops ten miles further west in Newport because you join the queue at the Brynglas tunnels. Traffic is dreadful in rush hour and on a holiday Summer evening can essentially snake from the Severn Bridge (and sometimes gets caught up with Bristol traffic too and goes back to Jct 18 for Bath). Thanks Mark Drakeford, take a bow.
That's completely mad, although to be fair they should really have addressed the tunnels when they built the second Severn bridge back in the '90s. Doesn't take a genius to work out that six lanes across the two bridges, down to two lanes for the tunnel isn't going to work out!
Indeed. In fairness it’s not easy because the geography does make life hard and simply blasting a wider tunnel was not exactly going to be top of the list given the fact you are in a built up area. This of course means some form of longer route along the coast and costs and environmental concerns multiply. The huge irony is that the current M4 is built round three sides of Newport with lots of junctions precisely to attract traffic as that was the only way it could be justified in whatever model they were using in the late sixties when seeing if it were feasible to build. So it was a compromise afterthought to the main event ( so the thinking went) of building a shiny new dual carriageway and motorway from S Wales to the Midlands to get steel up to the car plants. So now we have a fantastic run up to Birmingham on the A449/M50 ( a motorway as God intended that one, not much traffic an stunning views) whilst everyone is sat in a three lane car park in Newport called the M4.
When long term planning goes wrong.....
It is however a huge issue for industry in S Wales and no amount of extra busses or metros is going to help get goods out and in.
Mail on Sunday: somebody has stuck ten grand on Zac to hold Richmond.
Bold.
Probably Zac
Just having a punt if so, using his severance package from being an MP.
I think Zac is running an effective campaign. To a casual observer who does not have access to canvassing results or the underlying dynamics, I can see how a punt might be tempting.
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
Yes, of course, and many do. It's hard work though, you have to be disciplined as well as well-informed, and you need a fair bit of capital to invest.
In other words, it's just like running your own business.
Yes. I lived off betting on horses for two or three years but having a job is easier. These days you can struggle to get your bets on. The betting shops were raking in so much money from FOBTs they could afford to be very trigger-happy on knocking back punters. A friend bets in-running but that takes four hours of solid concentration a day, and twice that in the summer when there is evening racing.
Well that was an enlightening set of polls from last night, especially the constituency polling.
Could we see a few Tory gains or unlikely holds with a split opposition between Lab and LD - 40/30/30 results?
Highly likely.
Tactical voting alone is not going to save Remain.
Say I ived in Kensington and wanted to stop the Tories I genuinely wouldn't know who to vote for to do that. Labour is the incumbent but the constituency polling shows Libdems in second, but then again constituency polling has been crap in the past, then again Labour are more stronger locally.
And I follow politics a lot.
If by polling day it looks like Boris is going to get his majority to implement Brexit, I do wonder if some of the Remainers in such seats (or maybe wider in the electorate) will just not bother? I know we keep being told they are so fired up to have their say to stop it. But who wants to vote to lose again?
Perhaps the no smoke without fire brigade are correct but there seems to be a lot of desperate hope pitched around Arcuri. The focus group one liners which included the weekend activities of the leaders “Boris shags his secretary” suggests that the curtain-twitching moralisers here are swimming against the tide.
Mail on Sunday: somebody has stuck ten grand on Zac to hold Richmond.
Bold.
Probably Zac
Just having a punt if so, using his severance package from being an MP.
I think Zac is running an effective campaign. To a casual observer who does not have access to canvassing results or the underlying dynamics, I can see how a punt might be tempting.
Probably been done to try and scare the lib dems into pulling activists back in to Richmond to take the pressure of other west London seats.
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
Some very generous odds on Con Holds in Scotland, eg:
Banff and Buchan 6/5 Moray EVS Gordon 11/10 Dumfries and Galloway 3/4
Are you on?
I was in Moray on Friday night for a dinner speaking to an SNP activist. She was quite pessimistic about the SNP regaining the seat. She pointed out that Moray came closer to voting to leave the EU than any other seat in Scotland (I haven't checked this) and with the remainer vote split it was looking a tough ask. She was pretty bullish about the SNP generally but was twitchy about her own patch.
I pointed out the other day that the Brexit vote was concentrated in the Tory-held seats. Moray for example was 49.9% Leave....
Really? So close to people having to say nearly all areas of Scotland voted remain rather than literally all
I was told that there was about 100 votes in it in Moray.
Barnsian, I know you are basing your seat assessment only on polling. But in Scunthorpe, the recent saving of the steel works would get a degree of special pleading that the Govt. sees a lift. Ditto Blackpool South on suspending fracking.
I expect both to be Con Gain on current polling.
The nature of this election is that there are many such cases driven by both local and regional differences. I know we disagree about Totnes (although I imagine that even you would agree that Wollaston has some personal vote). But there are many other cases. Eastleigh, where Mims Davies changed her mind about standing 3 times in one week before doing the chicken run. Not a good look against a strong LD machine. Or the job losses in Swindon, recently exacerbated by the announced closure of Honda Logistics (another 900+ jobs). Or the recent announced loss of 270 jobs around Bodmin at a meat factory closure (significant in an area with little industry). These things tend to even out, but often bad news is felt more acutely than a reprieve.
Perhaps the no smoke without fire brigade are correct but there seems to be a lot of desperate hope pitched around Arcuri. The focus group one liners which included the weekend activities of the leaders “Boris shags his secretary” suggests that the curtain-twitching moralisers here are swimming against the tide.
The moral aspect of being a shagger is secondary to whether he failed to declare a close relationship. The investigation into his conduct is on hold. But it doesn't seem the thing which would sink him at this stage.
Perhaps the no smoke without fire brigade are correct but there seems to be a lot of desperate hope pitched around Arcuri. The focus group one liners which included the weekend activities of the leaders “Boris shags his secretary” suggests that the curtain-twitching moralisers here are swimming against the tide.
Its really just the next thing to hang their hopes on.
Boris is completely overrated as a campaigner. Being forced to extend beyond October will be fatal to Boris. Boris will never get a deal. Boris will never persuade the mad men of ERG to back his deal. Boris will be humiliated by Farage (remember him?) The revoke policy is a stroke of genius which will result in the Lib Dems sweeping the SE, London and the SW. Boris will repeat May's mistakes and hide away. There will inevitably be a swingback to Labour like 2017 redux.
There is an ever increasing layer of desperation here. Something might still go wrong but...
@Richard_Tyndall@Philip_Thompson I have upgraded my model to explicitly model green tactical voting by constituency and also BXP tactical voting.
It turns out that the assumption of BXP tactical votes in non-Tory seats is critical. Richard suggested 50% of current BXP voters would tactically vote Tory and none Labour.
This gives Con/Lab/LD 336/211/32 Con gain Blackpool S, Dagenham, Darlington, G Grimsby, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, W Brom West, Gower, Bolton NE, Reading E.
However if 40% of BXP voters tactically vote Tory and 20% revert to Labour then the result is Con/Lab/LD 323/224/32
So I need more information on how current BXP voters are likely to vote. Many have already switched to Tory of course. Any suggestions?
Sorry Barnesian you have misunderstood me.
I don't think none would vote Labour. I am suggesting that in the South, 50% would vote Tory and the rest would be split between the other parties including Labour and also a proportion won't vote.
In the North I think it will be different with at least some of the Brexit Party vote going back to Labour in areas where they don't stand.
But thanks for the numbers. Your work is very much appreciated.
Well that was an enlightening set of polls from last night, especially the constituency polling.
Could we see a few Tory gains or unlikely holds with a split opposition between Lab and LD - 40/30/30 results?
Highly likely.
Tactical voting alone is not going to save Remain.
Say I ived in Kensington and wanted to stop the Tories I genuinely wouldn't know who to vote for to do that. Labour is the incumbent but the constituency polling shows Libdems in second, but then again constituency polling has been crap in the past, then again Labour are more stronger locally.
And I follow politics a lot.
If by polling day it looks like Boris is going to get his majority to implement Brexit, I do wonder if some of the Remainers in such seats (or maybe wider in the electorate) will just not bother? I know we keep being told they are so fired up to have their say to stop it. But who wants to vote to lose again?
I think it was YouGov that showed Brexit is the most important issue for 46% of Leavers but only 36% of remainers feel the same way. That's a significant gap.
Barnsian, I know you are basing your seat assessment only on polling. But in Scunthorpe, the recent saving of the steel works would get a degree of special pleading that the Govt. sees a lift. Ditto Blackpool South on suspending fracking.
I expect both to be Con Gain on current polling.
The nature of this election is that there are many such cases driven by both local and regional differences. I know we disagree about Totnes (although I imagine that even you would agree that Wollaston has some personal vote). But there are many other cases. Eastleigh, where Mims Davies changed her mind about standing 3 times in one week before doing the chicken run. Not a good look against a strong LD machine. Or the job losses in Swindon, recently exacerbated by the announced closure of Honda Logistics (another 900+ jobs). Or the recent announced loss of 270 jobs around Bodmin at a meat factory closure (significant in an area with little industry). These things tend to even out, but often bad news is felt more acutely than a reprieve.
These are all good points. You need a basic framework for a base case scenario, and then apply local knowledge of specific constituencies.
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
When I was at university in the 70s I had a friend who was doing his second PhD (he had one in some esoteric area of chemical bonding and was doing another in the Peace and Conflict Dept at Lancaster). He was a political refugee from Guyana (he did not have strong opinions, but apparently a hippy outlook was enough to cause trouble in those days) and had no funding. Every other weekend he disappeared down to London to play poker, and that was how he funded himself. It helped that he was a genius who was also in card counting at Blackjack. He subsequently became a lecturer at Lancaster but unfortunately died young.
Perhaps the no smoke without fire brigade are correct but there seems to be a lot of desperate hope pitched around Arcuri. The focus group one liners which included the weekend activities of the leaders “Boris shags his secretary” suggests that the curtain-twitching moralisers here are swimming against the tide.
The moral aspect of being a shagger is secondary to whether he failed to declare a close relationship. The investigation into his conduct is on hold. But it doesn't seem the thing which would sink him at this stage.
ITV would not be showing this programme at 11pm if it contained a smoking gun. Of course, it may well be true that Boris did spaff some cash on Arcuri but nothing will be proved for at least two years and it will be too late then.
But kudos for the company name, Hacker House, combining cybersecurity with Britain's best-known former prime minister. Boris's idea?
@Richard_Tyndall@Philip_Thompson I have upgraded my model to explicitly model green tactical voting by constituency and also BXP tactical voting.
It turns out that the assumption of BXP tactical votes in non-Tory seats is critical. Richard suggested 50% of current BXP voters would tactically vote Tory and none Labour.
This gives Con/Lab/LD 336/211/32 Con gain Blackpool S, Dagenham, Darlington, G Grimsby, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, W Brom West, Gower, Bolton NE, Reading E.
However if 40% of BXP voters tactically vote Tory and 20% revert to Labour then the result is Con/Lab/LD 323/224/32
So I need more information on how current BXP voters are likely to vote. Many have already switched to Tory of course. Any suggestions?
Sorry Barnesian you have misunderstood me.
I don't think none would vote Labour. I am suggesting that in the South, 50% would vote Tory and the rest would be split between the other parties including Labour and also a proportion won't vote.
In the North I think it will be different with at least some of the Brexit Party vote going back to Labour in areas where they don't stand.
But thanks for the numbers. Your work is very much appreciated.
Thanks for the clarification.
Interestingly when I apply a 50% BXP tactical Tory vote across the country, not just in the South, only two southern seats go Tory - Dagenham and Reading E. and all the other eleven Tory gains are all in the North. But that's assuming no BXP go to Labour.
I see Dan Hodges is trying not to get overexcited about Tory prospects with a report from Canterbury. I find this part pretty depressing though:
[Rosie Duffield] acknowledges differences with Corbyn but claims they’re not an issue. ‘If you’re a fan of a football club, you stay a fan no matter who the manager is. And if people don’t like Jeremy and don’t warm to him, he’s what, 71? He won’t be around for ever.’
I'd rather hoped people only make the suggestion they treat political party support like a football club as a joke. The idea you back it no matter what, whoever leads it and its policies, is terrible.
I was very clearly arguing for tolerance in the way people choose to dress by saying that we wouldn't find it acceptable for someone to ridicule the yarmulke (although I spelled it wrong, so apologies for that).
You then decided to drag the KKK into the discussion. Later you doubled down on that comparison.
Those quotes there show exactly the difference between what you claimed was said and what was really said. Nobody was defending "those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa". We weren't discussing physically or otherwise attacking those wearing the burqa, we were discussing the garment itself and whether or not it should be illegal, not attacking people wearing it.
And comparing the burqa - a nasty, misogynistic, dehumanising garment with no religious bearing designed to culturally separate people - to the yarmuka, a simple skullcap that doesn't mask or dehumanise its wearer is quite frankly antisemitic.
The yarmuka is not a misogynistic, dehumanising garment and to conflate it with the burqa is racist to Jews and Muslims and it is also extremely ignorant of Islam. Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
A very comparable garment to the burqa is worn by some in the west. Equally as nasty, dehumanising etc it is the KKK's outfit. Again designed to dehumanise and seperate people, again designed to hide people from head to toe. Both only worn by extremists with an extreme distorted view of religion. Unlike simple religious garments like the yarmuka, kufi, hijab or turban etc Do you still pretend there's no difference between the yarmuka and the burqa?
Or do you deny that the burqa is dehumanising? Do you deny it is a misogynistic outfit? Do you deny it is not required by Islam? Do you deny it is cultural rather than Islamic? Do you deny it is designed to separate people?
If you accept that it is misogynistic etc then to compare it with the yarmuka anyway is antisemitic. If you deny that it is not required by Islam then that is going to confound the many decent Muslims who don't wear it and I think you'll find you're wrong.
Or are you just looking for a fight which is why you start every day with this ludicrous attention seeking outburst as you join the thread?
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.
@Richard_Tyndall@Philip_Thompson I have upgraded my model to explicitly model green tactical voting by constituency and also BXP tactical voting.
It turns out that the assumption of BXP tactical votes in non-Tory seats is critical. Richard suggested 50% of current BXP voters would tactically vote Tory and none Labour.
This gives Con/Lab/LD 336/211/32 Con gain Blackpool S, Dagenham, Darlington, G Grimsby, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, W Brom West, Gower, Bolton NE, Reading E.
However if 40% of BXP voters tactically vote Tory and 20% revert to Labour then the result is Con/Lab/LD 323/224/32
So I need more information on how current BXP voters are likely to vote. Many have already switched to Tory of course. Any suggestions?
Sorry Barnesian you have misunderstood me.
I don't think none would vote Labour. I am suggesting that in the South, 50% would vote Tory and the rest would be split between the other parties including Labour and also a proportion won't vote.
In the North I think it will be different with at least some of the Brexit Party vote going back to Labour in areas where they don't stand.
But thanks for the numbers. Your work is very much appreciated.
Thanks for the clarification.
Interestingly when I apply a 50% BXP tactical Tory vote across the country, not just in the South, only two southern seats go Tory - Dagenham and Reading E. and all the other eleven Tory gains are all in the North. But that's assuming no BXP go to Labour.
I'll have a think.
But the key effect from that should be how many seats the tory save (especially from the libdems) not how many they GAIN
Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, in his Elections Etc forecasting model, uses betting markets as well as polls and statistical forecasting as a component part in arriving at his"combined forecast" of the number of seats likely to be won by each party. It's as if he is recognising that the betting fraternity has some inherent ability to identify shifts in opinion over and above those identified from other sources. In this connection, it's interesting to note that while last night's polls generally provided supportive news for the Tories, their mid-spread price actually edged down by a few seats, while Labour's mid-spread seat price edged up by a correspondingly small margin. Was this perhaps an example of the betting market intuitively deciding that a small correction was in order, despite polling evidence to the contrary? Curious.
Its really just the next thing to hang their hopes on.
Boris is completely overrated as a campaigner. Being forced to extend beyond October will be fatal to Boris. Boris will never get a deal. Boris will never persuade the mad men of ERG to back his deal. Boris will be humiliated by Farage (remember him?) The revoke policy is a stroke of genius which will result in the Lib Dems sweeping the SE, London and the SW. Boris will repeat May's mistakes and hide away. There will inevitably be a swingback to Labour like 2017 redux.
There is an ever increasing layer of desperation here. Something might still go wrong but...
For those of us not in the Conservative camp the overnight polling came as no real surprise. I'm not keen on a Britain governed by Boris Johnson with a landslide majority - I think there are a lot of contradictions with some of the policy proposals I'm hearing and the willingness to throw money at every issue combined with his continued desire to support tax cuts suggests we could be looking at some serious borrowing for which one day there will be a reckoning.
He succeeds as a campaigner for two reasons - first, he is facing Jeremy Corbyn, who is the bogeyman de nos jours. Second, he will say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear - he doesn't care about being inconsistent as long as the people to whom he is speaking walk away happy.
The trap so many are walking into is the belief he will provide some form of painless Brexit next year - he won't or can't. It may be he hopes a big majority will carry leverage into the trade negotiations and get him a "big free trade deal" but that depends on other factors outside his control.
As for Britain becoming "the greatest place on Earth", I haven't heard a syllable from him or any other Conservative as to how that can be achieved on a practical level.
Thanks to Alastair for the hard work- very helpful. A few miscellaneous thoughts on other comments:
* I think the polls last night were genuinely impressive for the Tories and also the result of the BXP shilly-shallying working through. I doubt if Farage can get much credibility back now. The detail that a lot of "undecideds" are in Labour-leaning groups probably does mean that 2-3 point can be clawed back, but it will take seriously good debates to completely change things now.
* What I've seen of the Labour manifesto doesn't look likely to transform the position. The broadband stuff counts for most people as "nice to have" (like the LibDem offer on child care), but not a vote-changer. The free dental checkup and basic dental care are far more relevant for most people, but not enough on their own.
* The tactical vote position in places like Kensington is seriously messy and could well produce some Tory gains, though I still think that in most seats people will correctly work out who the main non-Tory is. I'm not much worried about reluctance to vote tactically - the fears of a scary Marxist overall majority were always fantasy (if only because most Labour MPs and libDems/SNP are not up for it) and are now obviously silly. Knowing whom to vote for is the issue.
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
When I was at university in the 70s I had a friend who was doing his second PhD (he had one in some esoteric area of chemical bonding and was doing another in the Peace and Conflict Dept at Lancaster). He was a political refugee from Guyana (he did not have strong opinions, but apparently a hippy outlook was enough to cause trouble in those days) and had no funding. Every other weekend he disappeared down to London to play poker, and that was how he funded himself. It helped that he was a genius who was also in card counting at Blackjack. He subsequently became a lecturer at Lancaster but unfortunately died young.
At least your friend was awarded his PhD; I had a student friend who spent a lot (too much?) time at the races (usually Redcar) and never did qualify. His father was also a pharmacist and my friend was supposed to be taking over the business!
I offer, without further comment, mean vote share values for all published GB/UK polls with fieldwork completed since 26th August, in fortnightly blocs. There are quite a lot of numbers to tot up so apologies if I've made any errors! Data courtesy of the wonder of Wikipedia, except for the five most recent surveys.
Fieldwork ending between these dates:
26 Aug - 8 Sep (15 polls) Con: 32.7% Lab: 25.5% Lib Dem: 18.1% Brexit: 13.1% Green: 4.5% Con lead over Lab: 7.2%
09 Sep - 22 Sep (9 polls) Con: 32.9% (+0.2%) Lab: 24.0% (-1.5%) Lib Dem: 20.0% (+1.9%) Brexit: 12.2% (-0.9%) Green: 4.2% (-0.3%) Con lead over Lab: 8.9% (+1.7%)
23 Sep - 06 Oct (8 polls) Con: 33.1% (+0.2%) Lab: 23.6% (-0.4%) Lib Dem: 20.3% (+0.3%) Brexit: 12.8% (+0.6%) Green: 4.4% (+0.2%) Con lead over Lab: 9.5% (+0.6%)
07 Oct - 20 Oct (10 polls) Con: 35.0% (+1.9%) Lab: 25.9% (+2.3%) Lib Dem: 17.9% (-2.4%) Brexit: 11.4% (-1.4%) Green: 3.8% (-0.6%) Con lead over Lab: 9.1% (-0.4%)
21 Oct - 3 Nov (14 polls) Con: 37.9% (+2.9%) Lab: 25.1% (-0.8%) Lib Dem: 17.0% (-0.9%) Brexit: 10.4% (-1.0%) Green: 3.8% (n/c) Con lead over Lab: 12.8% (+3.7%)
4 Nov - 17 Nov (21 polls) Con: 39.6% (+1.7%) Lab: 28.8% (+3.7%) Lib Dem: 15.5% (-1.5%) Brexit: 7.8% (-2.6%) Green*: 3.2% (-0.6%) Con lead over Lab: 10.8% (-2.0%)
*Green figures aren't yet available for four of the five most recent polls, so their mean has been calculated from 17 data points only
The percentage movement between the first and last data set is as follows: Con: +6.9% Lab: +3.3% Lib Dem: -2.6% Brexit: -5.3% Green: -1.3% Con lead over Lab: +3.6%
Last data set relative to the 2017 GE result: Con: -2.7% Lab: -11.2% Lib Dem: +8.1% Brexit: +7.8% (or +6.0% compared with the 2017 UKIP vote) Green: +1.6% Con lead over Lab: +8.5%
Under Ladbrokes' special GE bets section, they are offering odds of 6/4 against Labour failing to gain an individual seat not won in 2017. At first sight, this would seem to be an unlikely outcome, but does anyone think it offers value?
@Richard_Tyndall@Philip_Thompson I have upgraded my model to explicitly model green tactical voting by constituency and also BXP tactical voting.
It turns out that the assumption of BXP tactical votes in non-Tory seats is critical. Richard suggested 50% of current BXP voters would tactically vote Tory and none Labour.
This gives Con/Lab/LD 336/211/32 Con gain Blackpool S, Dagenham, Darlington, G Grimsby, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, W Brom West, Gower, Bolton NE, Reading E.
However if 40% of BXP voters tactically vote Tory and 20% revert to Labour then the result is Con/Lab/LD 323/224/32
So I need more information on how current BXP voters are likely to vote. Many have already switched to Tory of course. Any suggestions?
Sorry Barnesian you have misunderstood me.
I don't think none would vote Labour. I am suggesting that in the South, 50% would vote Tory and the rest would be split between the other parties including Labour and also a proportion won't vote.
In the North I think it will be different with at least some of the Brexit Party vote going back to Labour in areas where they don't stand.
But thanks for the numbers. Your work is very much appreciated.
Thanks for the clarification.
Interestingly when I apply a 50% BXP tactical Tory vote across the country, not just in the South, only two southern seats go Tory - Dagenham and Reading E. and all the other eleven Tory gains are all in the North. But that's assuming no BXP go to Labour.
I'll have a think.
But the key effect from that should be how many seats the tory save (especially from the libdems) not how many they GAIN
That's a different effect. I was discussing tactical BXP votes in non-Tory seats that help the Tories GAIN seats from Labour.
You are discussing how many seats the Tories SAVE from LDs because the BXP is not standing in Tory seats. I model that too and assume 50% of potential BXP voters vote Tory in Tory seats. With that assumption, the Tories save four seats from the LDs - Taunton Deane, Thornbury, Sutton and Cheam and Eastleigh.
Its really just the next thing to hang their hopes on.
Boris is completely overrated as a campaigner. Being forced to extend beyond October will be fatal to Boris. Boris will never get a deal. Boris will never persuade the mad men of ERG to back his deal. Boris will be humiliated by Farage (remember him?) The revoke policy is a stroke of genius which will result in the Lib Dems sweeping the SE, London and the SW. Boris will repeat May's mistakes and hide away. There will inevitably be a swingback to Labour like 2017 redux.
There is an ever increasing layer of desperation here. Something might still go wrong but...
For those of us not in the Conservative camp the overnight polling came as no real surprise. I'm not keen on a Britain governed by Boris Johnson with a landslide majority - I think there are a lot of contradictions with some of the policy proposals I'm hearing and the willingness to throw money at every issue combined with his continued desire to support tax cuts suggests we could be looking at some serious borrowing for which one day there will be a reckoning.
He succeeds as a campaigner for two reasons - first, he is facing Jeremy Corbyn, who is the bogeyman de nos jours. Second, he will say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear - he doesn't care about being inconsistent as long as the people to whom he is speaking walk away happy.
The trap so many are walking into is the belief he will provide some form of painless Brexit next year - he won't or can't. It may be he hopes a big majority will carry leverage into the trade negotiations and get him a "big free trade deal" but that depends on other factors outside his control.
As for Britain becoming "the greatest place on Earth", I haven't heard a syllable from him or any other Conservative as to how that can be achieved on a practical level.
I am far from being his biggest fan but on a betting site we should recognise reality. He is miles ahead of Corbyn who is looking old and tired. The Lib Dem’s are going backwards. The BP have been completely side lined. Unless we have a series of black swans he is heading for a majority in excess of 100, for good or ill.
On header, the comment about the Labour party on Merseyside "demonstrating a ferocious ability to work neighbouring constituencies to secure outsized swings as compared with the national figure" is well taken, although I've heard as usual internal Labour politics kicked in so it probably applies more to constituencies with a Momentum minded candidate, benefiting Labour in places like Southport and even Clwyd West but not so much Warrington South, which could be vulnerable.
Under Ladbrokes' special GE bets section, they are offering odds of 6/4 against Labour failing to gain an individual seat not won in 2017. At first sight, this would seem to be an unlikely outcome, but does anyone think it offers value?
I think it’s possible but those are really skinny odds.
Ten polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll.
(* I say preliminary in case any other polls are late to the ELBOW party!)
As a note, BMG have not yet caught up with the Brexit Party standing down in certain seats as the other pollsters have. Their next poll will make the correction, which will presumably push the gap between Con and Lab somewhat further apart.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Malcolm pulls another fish from the Sea of Outrage.....
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Eck needs the cash so he can have privacy in his shower cubicle next year.
Leclerc for a podium? He's got a brand new engine which only has to last two races, will therefore be able to run in much higher modes for the majority of the afternoon.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Is he an MSP milking the public purse at the same time. No other serving politician has ever been grasping enough to take money on election night in the past. This shows perfectly how bad the Tory politicians have become, they have no morals and less principles. How can ordinary people vote for these types.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
I missed the part where Ruth had retired as an elected member and from active politics.
Polling does suggest the LibDem "Revoke" one-trick ponies are not enthusing the voters.
They still have time to pivot to being The Sensible Left, in stark contrast to Loony Labour. That might do them scant favour in the raft of Tory-LibDem battles this time out. But I have to think it is where their future lies - picking off one party rather than nibbling at both?
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
I missed the part where Ruth had retired as an elected member and from active politics.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Eck needs the cash so he can have privacy in his shower cubicle next year.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
I missed the part where Ruth had retired as an elected member and from active politics.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Malcolm pulls another fish from the Sea of Outrage.....
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
I missed the part where Ruth had retired as an elected member and from active politics.
Another dishonest remainer..
Let's hope the HMRC are on Ruth's case for all these extra dobs of cash.
O/T Sri Lankan presidential election: War criminal and friend to many a right-wing Tory scum, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, has won the election. Troubling times for minorities in Sri Lanka. Sad times...
Comments
Banff and Buchan 6/5
Moray EVS
Gordon 11/10
Dumfries and Galloway 3/4
Are you on?
We know from the Blair Cash For Honours investigation that the Police would prosecute a sitting PM if the evidence were there. Blair always said that he would have resigned instantly if arrested. Not sure Boris would, especially if it interfered with Brexit, but the possibility would definitely be there.
I'll take a look. Cheers.
OK, time to go the races. Where's me coat?
Or are they new to politics and looking at all of the constituency polling and thinking "wow, Tories are going to take so many seats in London". Lol
I think they'll prove profitable for political betting because they're dominated by libertarians, and libertarians are great people to bet against. (See Ron Paul, Andrew Yang, etc etc).
I have upgraded my model to explicitly model green tactical voting by constituency and also BXP tactical voting.
It turns out that the assumption of BXP tactical votes in non-Tory seats is critical.
Richard suggested 50% of current BXP voters would tactically vote Tory and none Labour.
This gives Con/Lab/LD 336/211/32
Con gain Blackpool S, Dagenham, Darlington, G Grimsby, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, W Brom West, Gower, Bolton NE, Reading E.
Detail is here with assumptions at the bottom.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
However if 40% of BXP voters tactically vote Tory and 20% revert to Labour then the result is Con/Lab/LD 323/224/32
So I need more information on how current BXP voters are likely to vote. Many have already switched to Tory of course. Any suggestions?
Tactical voting alone is not going to save Remain.
Say I ived in Kensington and wanted to stop the Tories I genuinely wouldn't know who to vote for to do that. Labour is the incumbent but the constituency polling shows Libdems in second, but then again constituency polling has been crap in the past, then again Labour are more stronger locally.
And I follow politics a lot.
When long term planning goes wrong.....
It is however a huge issue for industry in S Wales and no amount of extra busses or metros is going to help get goods out and in.
But thanks for asking.
They made me do it!
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1196003133794766848?s=20
These things tend to even out, but often bad news is felt more acutely than a reprieve.
Boris is completely overrated as a campaigner.
Being forced to extend beyond October will be fatal to Boris.
Boris will never get a deal.
Boris will never persuade the mad men of ERG to back his deal.
Boris will be humiliated by Farage (remember him?)
The revoke policy is a stroke of genius which will result in the Lib Dems sweeping the SE, London and the SW.
Boris will repeat May's mistakes and hide away.
There will inevitably be a swingback to Labour like 2017 redux.
There is an ever increasing layer of desperation here. Something might still go wrong but...
I don't think none would vote Labour. I am suggesting that in the South, 50% would vote Tory and the rest would be split between the other parties including Labour and also a proportion won't vote.
In the North I think it will be different with at least some of the Brexit Party vote going back to Labour in areas where they don't stand.
But thanks for the numbers. Your work is very much appreciated.
But kudos for the company name, Hacker House, combining cybersecurity with Britain's best-known former prime minister. Boris's idea?
Interestingly when I apply a 50% BXP tactical Tory vote across the country, not just in the South, only two southern seats go Tory - Dagenham and Reading E. and all the other eleven Tory gains are all in the North. But that's assuming no BXP go to Labour.
I'll have a think.
[Rosie Duffield] acknowledges differences with Corbyn but claims they’re not an issue. ‘If you’re a fan of a football club, you stay a fan no matter who the manager is. And if people don’t like Jeremy and don’t warm to him, he’s what, 71? He won’t be around for ever.’
I'd rather hoped people only make the suggestion they treat political party support like a football club as a joke. The idea you back it no matter what, whoever leads it and its policies, is terrible.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7693945/DAN-HODGES-meets-young-Remainers-Brexiteers-waging-civil-war-Canterbury.html
And comparing the burqa - a nasty, misogynistic, dehumanising garment with no religious bearing designed to culturally separate people - to the yarmuka, a simple skullcap that doesn't mask or dehumanise its wearer is quite frankly antisemitic.
The yarmuka is not a misogynistic, dehumanising garment and to conflate it with the burqa is racist to Jews and Muslims and it is also extremely ignorant of Islam. Comparable to the yarmuka would be the kufi or the hijab not the burqa.
A very comparable garment to the burqa is worn by some in the west. Equally as nasty, dehumanising etc it is the KKK's outfit. Again designed to dehumanise and seperate people, again designed to hide people from head to toe. Both only worn by extremists with an extreme distorted view of religion. Unlike simple religious garments like the yarmuka, kufi, hijab or turban etc
Do you still pretend there's no difference between the yarmuka and the burqa?
Or do you deny that the burqa is dehumanising? Do you deny it is a misogynistic outfit? Do you deny it is not required by Islam? Do you deny it is cultural rather than Islamic? Do you deny it is designed to separate people?
If you accept that it is misogynistic etc then to compare it with the yarmuka anyway is antisemitic.
If you deny that it is not required by Islam then that is going to confound the many decent Muslims who don't wear it and I think you'll find you're wrong.
Or are you just looking for a fight which is why you start every day with this ludicrous attention seeking outburst as you join the thread?
It's as if he is recognising that the betting fraternity has some inherent ability to identify shifts in opinion over and above those identified from other sources.
In this connection, it's interesting to note that while last night's polls generally provided supportive news for the Tories, their mid-spread price actually edged down by a few seats, while Labour's mid-spread seat price edged up by a correspondingly small margin.
Was this perhaps an example of the betting market intuitively deciding that a small correction was in order, despite polling evidence to the contrary? Curious.
He succeeds as a campaigner for two reasons - first, he is facing Jeremy Corbyn, who is the bogeyman de nos jours. Second, he will say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear - he doesn't care about being inconsistent as long as the people to whom he is speaking walk away happy.
The trap so many are walking into is the belief he will provide some form of painless Brexit next year - he won't or can't. It may be he hopes a big majority will carry leverage into the trade negotiations and get him a "big free trade deal" but that depends on other factors outside his control.
As for Britain becoming "the greatest place on Earth", I haven't heard a syllable from him or any other Conservative as to how that can be achieved on a practical level.
"Ruth Davidson offered 'unprecedented sum' to discuss General Election on ITV"
https://tinyurl.com/wuce8mw
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1195835801910812672?s=19
* I think the polls last night were genuinely impressive for the Tories and also the result of the BXP shilly-shallying working through. I doubt if Farage can get much credibility back now. The detail that a lot of "undecideds" are in Labour-leaning groups probably does mean that 2-3 point can be clawed back, but it will take seriously good debates to completely change things now.
* What I've seen of the Labour manifesto doesn't look likely to transform the position. The broadband stuff counts for most people as "nice to have" (like the LibDem offer on child care), but not a vote-changer. The free dental checkup and basic dental care are far more relevant for most people, but not enough on their own.
* The tactical vote position in places like Kensington is seriously messy and could well produce some Tory gains, though I still think that in most seats people will correctly work out who the main non-Tory is. I'm not much worried about reluctance to vote tactically - the fears of a scary Marxist overall majority were always fantasy (if only because most Labour MPs and libDems/SNP are not up for it) and are now obviously silly. Knowing whom to vote for is the issue.
Preliminary* Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 17th November:
CON 41.3% (+3.3)
LAB 29.4% (+1.1)
LD 14.8% (-1.4)
BXP 6.3% (-2.8%)
CON lead 11.9% (+2.2)
Ten polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll.
(* I say preliminary in case any other polls are late to the ELBOW party!)
I offer, without further comment, mean vote share values for all published GB/UK polls with fieldwork completed since 26th August, in fortnightly blocs. There are quite a lot of numbers to tot up so apologies if I've made any errors! Data courtesy of the wonder of Wikipedia, except for the five most recent surveys.
Fieldwork ending between these dates:
26 Aug - 8 Sep (15 polls)
Con: 32.7%
Lab: 25.5%
Lib Dem: 18.1%
Brexit: 13.1%
Green: 4.5%
Con lead over Lab: 7.2%
09 Sep - 22 Sep (9 polls)
Con: 32.9% (+0.2%)
Lab: 24.0% (-1.5%)
Lib Dem: 20.0% (+1.9%)
Brexit: 12.2% (-0.9%)
Green: 4.2% (-0.3%)
Con lead over Lab: 8.9% (+1.7%)
23 Sep - 06 Oct (8 polls)
Con: 33.1% (+0.2%)
Lab: 23.6% (-0.4%)
Lib Dem: 20.3% (+0.3%)
Brexit: 12.8% (+0.6%)
Green: 4.4% (+0.2%)
Con lead over Lab: 9.5% (+0.6%)
07 Oct - 20 Oct (10 polls)
Con: 35.0% (+1.9%)
Lab: 25.9% (+2.3%)
Lib Dem: 17.9% (-2.4%)
Brexit: 11.4% (-1.4%)
Green: 3.8% (-0.6%)
Con lead over Lab: 9.1% (-0.4%)
21 Oct - 3 Nov (14 polls)
Con: 37.9% (+2.9%)
Lab: 25.1% (-0.8%)
Lib Dem: 17.0% (-0.9%)
Brexit: 10.4% (-1.0%)
Green: 3.8% (n/c)
Con lead over Lab: 12.8% (+3.7%)
4 Nov - 17 Nov (21 polls)
Con: 39.6% (+1.7%)
Lab: 28.8% (+3.7%)
Lib Dem: 15.5% (-1.5%)
Brexit: 7.8% (-2.6%)
Green*: 3.2% (-0.6%)
Con lead over Lab: 10.8% (-2.0%)
*Green figures aren't yet available for four of the five most recent polls, so their mean has been calculated from 17 data points only
The percentage movement between the first and last data set is as follows:
Con: +6.9%
Lab: +3.3%
Lib Dem: -2.6%
Brexit: -5.3%
Green: -1.3%
Con lead over Lab: +3.6%
Last data set relative to the 2017 GE result:
Con: -2.7%
Lab: -11.2%
Lib Dem: +8.1%
Brexit: +7.8% (or +6.0% compared with the 2017 UKIP vote)
Green: +1.6%
Con lead over Lab: +8.5%
F1: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/11/brazil-pre-race-2019.html
You are discussing how many seats the Tories SAVE from LDs because the BXP is not standing in Tory seats. I model that too and assume 50% of potential BXP voters vote Tory in Tory seats. With that assumption, the Tories save four seats from the LDs - Taunton Deane, Thornbury, Sutton and Cheam and Eastleigh.
Wonder how this compares to ELBOW at this point in the 2017 campaign?
The unstated assumption is often that prejudice against Jews is wrong but prejudice against Muslims is only natural considering.
Having said that, I'm not sure how shameful it is? Is it because she's still a serving politician? Doesn't seem to stop others.
How can ordinary people vote for these types.
They still have time to pivot to being The Sensible Left, in stark contrast to Loony Labour. That might do them scant favour in the raft of Tory-LibDem battles this time out. But I have to think it is where their future lies - picking off one party rather than nibbling at both?
It showed men more favourable to Labour than women . They lose men by 12 points but women by 20 points . This flies in the face of all other polling .
It also showed only 7 percent of Labour Remainers going for the Lib Dems , again this is really questionable.
1/33 Tories
25/1 Labour
Tories 33/1 on
PaulM beat me to it.
If someone came here and started every day saying good morning antisemites I'd think they were trolling too.
If I thought everyone on a site I was going to was an antisemite then I wouldn't greet people like that, I'd stop going to that site.
Of people leaving if he gets elected?
For example Angela Raynor is 1/5 to win Ashton under Lyne with PP. Ashton has been Labour since 1935, and she got over 60% of the vote last time.