Under Ladbrokes' special GE bets section, they are offering odds of 6/4 against Labour failing to gain an individual seat not won in 2017. At first sight, this would seem to be an unlikely outcome, but does anyone think it offers value?
I think it’s possible but those are really skinny odds.
Yep ... that's what I thought - the odds should be 3/1 or more to tempt in my view.
Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
Ye old GE wiki page seems slow to update its poll graph - flashbacks to 2015 when it would only update when Ed had surge 😂
Talking about being slow to update its polling data. This is also the case with Anthony Wells' UK Polling Report. Although the commentaries are pretty much up to date, the latest polling data in the chart on the right hand side dates back over 3 weeks to 25 October!
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Alex Salmond is a twat. Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.
Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
Don't give up hope. Don't be a gloomster!
Your model is one of the few glimmers of hope I have.
The only other glimmer is what is happening on the ground here in Wimbledon. Lib Dems exceptionally strong with many former Tory and Labour voters all saying they will vote Lib Dem. Better than evens chance that Wimbledon falls to the LDs in my opinion.
Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
Labour have a poor leader - not sure why they persist with him.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Alex Salmond is a twat. Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.
Alistair, why is he a twat , nothing wrong with having a programme on RT, less propaganda than if he had done BBC.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Alex Salmond is a twat. Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.
Alistair, why is he a twat , nothing wrong with having a programme on RT, less propaganda than if he had done BBC.
What if it were Davidson taking Putin's shilling, would you have the same view of her as you do of Salmond doing the same?
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
Leclerc for a podium? He's got a brand new engine which only has to last two races, will therefore be able to run in much higher modes for the majority of the afternoon.
Leclerc for a podium? He's got a brand new engine which only has to last two races, will therefore be able to run in much higher modes for the majority of the afternoon.
I think this looks like pretty fair value at best odds of 4/1 (several firms). After all, with his ability and his new-engined car, he should be in the top 5 or 6 within the first couple of laps. He then has plenty of time to challenge for a top 3 spot.
Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
Labour have a poor leader - not sure why they persist with him.
Because amongst the membership he's very popular. He's very good at engaging the base without engaging the rest of the population.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
Here's a few things that I didn't know, to set the context a bit for this general election.
1. At GE2017 Corbyn won more votes for Labour in England (11.39 million) than Tony Blair at GE1997 (11.35 million).
2. Also in England, Labour won 36 more seats at GE2017 (227) than at their nadir under these boundaries at GE2010 (191).
3. In Wales, the Conservative Party share of the vote at GE2017 (33.6%) was their equal highest (with 1935) since at least before 1918.
4. At GE2017 a record 21.7% of all votes were cast by post. This means that the election will substantially have occurred fairly soon, now that nominations have closed.
5. Turnout for postal votes issued at GE2017 was 83.1%, compared to the electorate-wide turnout of 68.8%, which I think makes the turnout for non-postal votes to be 65.7%. This might be something to consider, as any decline in turnout, say due to the weather, is plausibly more likely to affect non-postal voters.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
That's chalk and cheese tho'. Folk didn't want their own money being used to take care of them when they had dementia; they may also think Corbotel might be a bit daffy but I think that has less cut through.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.
An old work colleague of mine has a combination of pro-Brexit, anti-Brexit (NHS threat) and Tory attack videos on her wall. Quite how she'll be voting I'm not sure but it won't be for the Lib Dems.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
Nonsense. People on here, from all parties, were calling it a disaster as soon as it was announced. That it was a political mistake is just about the only thing everyone agreed on.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.
The method they proposed to achieve it wasn't popular at all.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.
I think the concept of a single provider being the best idea even to the yout will be very strange. They all like the idea of regularly switching between different mobile providers to get the latest greatest phone.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
Everyone I have spoken to reject is as nonsense and really do not want Corbyn controlling their broadband
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
Nonsense. People on here, from all parties, were calling it a disaster as soon as it was announced. That it was a political mistake is just about the only thing everyone agreed on.
But why didn't May's vote collapse then? She got the most votes in years.
I'm not saying it wasn't a bad policy (it was), it's just that I don't see any objective evidence it actually hurt her vote.
The reason she came unstuck was the don't knows going to Labour. And most of those were under the age of 40 hence this policy wasn't an attack on them anyway.
In any other election, 43% would have been a landslide. There's simply no basis to claim the dementia tax was what killed May's majority.
I am still very bemused by how the Tories managed to have yet another absolutely crap week, still no real policies and yet still extend their lead in the polls.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
I am still very bemused by how the Tories managed to have yet another absolutely crap week, still no real policies and yet still extend their lead in the polls.
Well it depends which polls you look at, doesn't it.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.
Honestly, it's only popular on the surface. "Of course I want free broadband, but how is he going to deliver it?!" is literally the reaction of all my non-Tory voting friends. It's a credibility issue for Corbyn and McDonnell.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.
I think the concept of a single provider being the best idea even to the yout will be very strange. They all like the idea of regularly switching between different mobile providers to get the latest greatest phone.
It's the concept of the STATE being that single provider that is the worry.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.
He was looking croaky and ropy on Marr today. He's got two days to shape up.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
I am still very bemused by how the Tories managed to have yet another absolutely crap week, still no real policies and yet still extend their lead in the polls.
Because a majority of the population get their information from headlines in newspapers or social media.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.
He was looking croaky and ropy on Marr today. He's got two days to shape up.
I reckon it's the next two weeks that are crucial - but the debate is very important.
If by the 1st there's still a massive gap, I think it's not looking good at all.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
Are you saying free broadband might be Labour's "dementia tax" moment - just that it hasn't hit them in the polls yet?
(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
Even though, it's a crazy idea, the free broadband pledge (like Brexit) is relatively popular. The slight increase in the Tory lead is due to Corbyn just looking tired and ineffectual. The debates are his last chance and I am not hopeful.
He was looking croaky and ropy on Marr today. He's got two days to shape up.
Jeremy Corbyn is starting to look his age. Perhaps CCHQ's dirty tricks squad has been sneezing in his general direction.
Aren't all the folk replying to 'Good morning, islamophobes' with 'Good morning whatevs' making an admission?
LOL no. Just feeding the troll.
But of course if people were behaving like that when the topic was antisemitism, you'd all be up in arms about what a disgrace it is.
The unstated assumption is often that prejudice against Jews is wrong but prejudice against Muslims is only natural considering.
No I would not. The topic here is politics and it is @Noo trolling to change the topic.
If someone came here and started every day saying good morning antisemites I'd think they were trolling too.
If I thought everyone on a site I was going to was an antisemite then I wouldn't greet people like that, I'd stop going to that site.
I don't think everyone on this site is islamophobic. But you definitely are. Comparing Muslims to the KKK is like comparing Jews to Nazis. It's not acceptable in any world.
This place has an islamophobia problem. Until that is addressed, I will continue to call it out.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
She polled massively more than Cameron because the UKIP vote collapsed from nearly 4 million to 600,000.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
She polled massively more than Cameron because the UKIP vote collapsed from nearly 4 million to 600,000.
And I would have thought those kinds of voters would have been put off by the dementia tax - but alas no.
Like I said, I don't doubt it had an impact, I just don't think it's the reason Labour polled 40%. That's all.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
I wouldn't go that far, but even in the initial polling that showed support for free internet, the means by which it was going to be achieved wasn't anywhere near as.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
Yup, if they had said free or heavily subsidised broadband for the working poor/oldies and introducing free WiFi in towns with poor 4G coverage it would have been a slam dunk and the Tories would be on the defensive or would be coming up with their own version of it.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.
I think the concept of a single provider being the best idea even to the yout will be very strange. They all like the idea of regularly switching between different mobile providers to get the latest greatest phone.
What is bad about Labour's policy is that the overdue legal separation of Openreach from BT — BT still own Openreach but they are now a separate company — does appear to be working. There are now several companies other than Openreach aiming to roll-out FTTC/FTTP to millions of homes and businesses, and Openreach itself has increased its own roll-out in order to remain competitive. It is not clear that a faster roll-out is possible without substantially increasing the cost, which is around £500 per premises passed.
Labour's plan may bring these programmes to a halt, or if not that then it might see them being curtailed, delaying widespread fibre broadband availability rather than accelerating it.
Labour could barely have chosen a worse time to propose nationalisation and a de facto state monopoly for broadband.
Honestly, I think this mini Tory surge is down to the idiotic free broadband policy. Even though it's outwardly popular, people love free stuff, it's really shown the unengaged people how mental Corbyn is.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
No, I don't think so. Generally there is a longer lag before stuff appears in the polls, not many are as hyperactive as PB regulars.
No, along with the dementia tax, this free broadband idea really got people listening and they've judged Jez to be a complete idiot. Nationalising the internet is literally a crackpot idea and people can see it. Labour are fucked. They have no credibility.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
If you look at RobD's excellent graph, or any other time-varying polling average, you can see a marked decline in the Tory opinion poll share as a result of the Dementia Tax announcement.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
Quite right. If you believed the polls, Theresa was heading for one of the greatest democratic endorsements in global political history. You don't go from that to losing seats simply because of a poorly marketed social-care policy. Something else must have been afoot - most likely crap polling.
Back to British politics, the writing is sadly on the wall. The Tories led by a mendacious, disingenuous racist buffoon are heading for a comfortable majority. The planets have aligned perfectly for him and them. The adverse consequences of this far from optimal result will be felt for years to come and will start unravelling very quickly. Again, sad, sad times....
Don't give up hope. Don't be a gloomster!
Your model is one of the few glimmers of hope I have.
The only other glimmer is what is happening on the ground here in Wimbledon. Lib Dems exceptionally strong with many former Tory and Labour voters all saying they will vote Lib Dem. Better than evens chance that Wimbledon falls to the LDs in my opinion.
Well that's a very good spot if you're right ... those nice folk at Unibet will give you odds of 2/1 against the Yellow team, compared with 2/5 for the Tory hot favourites.
Ten polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll.
(* I say preliminary in case any other polls are late to the ELBOW party!)
For there to be significant tactical voting requires a level "I can't stand him/them" higher than the opposition party
If a party has a 11% lead, 43% share and a leader with a small net *positive* rating how much tactical voting will there really be and will it really be more than last time?
Prehaps the party with a leader on minus 43% net rating is not going to recieve a more tactical vote than last time when compared to the leader with a + 4 net rating.
Quite right. If you believed the polls, Theresa was heading for one of the greatest democratic endorsements in global political history. You don't go from that to losing seats simply because of a poorly marketed social-care policy. Something else must have been afoot - most likely crap polling.
And Labour had more votes than Blair got in 2005, do people really think that was because of a social care policy? I was there in 2017 and I witnessed the youth engagement, it wasn't about that, it was because for the first time something different was being offered.
I'm not saying it will work this time - I just think it's wrong and misleading to say that the reason Labour did so well was because of a social care policy. Labour did well because they weren't the Tories.
The dementia tax is held up as this massive error - and yet May increased the Tory voteshare massively and got the most votes in years. Seems like revisionism more than anything else.
Nonsense. People on here, from all parties, were calling it a disaster as soon as it was announced. That it was a political mistake is just about the only thing everyone agreed on.
But why didn't May's vote collapse then? She got the most votes in years.
I'm not saying it wasn't a bad policy (it was), it's just that I don't see any objective evidence it actually hurt her vote.
The reason she came unstuck was the don't knows going to Labour. And most of those were under the age of 40 hence this policy wasn't an attack on them anyway.
In any other election, 43% would have been a landslide. There's simply no basis to claim the dementia tax was what killed May's majority.
My view is that Lynton Crosby's presidential campaign for the manifestly unpresidential Theresa May cost the Conservative Party its majority but the Wizard of Oz did successfully spin the blame onto Nick and Fiona's manifesto. Ironically, dropping the dementia tax even undermined its claims to be "strong and stable".
On the other side, Jeremy Corbyn played a blinder. For instance, linking the rise in crime directly to Theresa May's cutting 20,000 police officers.
For the avoidance of doubt, I am not Boris, even though he and CCHQ clearly agree with my analysis and have therefore replaced Lynton Crosby with his protege, Isaac Levido, and pledged to recruit the missing 20,000 coppers.
May dropped from frankly absurdly high polling of like 48% to 43%, so whilst she lost support, she didn't really lose very much, because the support she maintained was still the most any PM had had in years.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
Well there's two different things there.
(1) Why did May lose polling share during the campaign? Many argue it's because she ran a crap campaign, of which the Dementia Tax was a large part. She still polled more than Cameron because of the Brexit effect - clearly two things can have contrary effects at the same time.
(2) Why did Opposition support coalesce around Corbyn's Labour Party? Many argue that it was because the voters were tired of austerity, and Corbyn offered them free stuff. Or they argue that Corbyn is a good campaigner and genuinely inspired support. I tend to the view that voters baulked at the idea of May winning a thumping majority for various reasons, Brexit being one, but May's own personal weaknesses being another (which the Dementia Tax highlighted) and so voted Corbyn as the only way to prevent that majority.
Both these things need to happen again if Labour are to avoid defeat. It's been said that Johnson has not had a good campaign, but he doesn't seem to have dropped a Dementia Tax scale clanger yet. The offers of free stuff from Labour are not that convincing because the Tories are offering lots of free stuff, and so Labour are having to turn it up to 11 in response. If Corbyn did genuinely inspire support in 2017 he is now relatively a tarnished figure.
So that leaves Brexit. Will Remain voters panic at the thought of a Johnson majority and rally once more to the uncertain banner of the Labour Party? I find this hard to judge. On its own though, it won't be enough to avoid a Johnson majority - for that Labour also need the Johnson campaign to go awry - but it might be enough to make the difference between a modest majority and a landslide.
She really is a piece of work, greedy grasping Tory. She is a perfect example of a Tory.
FFS Malcolm, Alex Salmond has been presenting a show on "Russia Today" even after the Salisbury poisoning so dont be so fecking hypocritical and talking about "greedy grasping Tories"
Alex Salmond is a twat. Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.
Alistair, why is he a twat , nothing wrong with having a programme on RT, less propaganda than if he had done BBC.
What if it were Davidson taking Putin's shilling, would you have the same view of her as you do of Salmond doing the same?
Absolutely if she was not a serving politician. Any coverage on RT I have watched has been far better than anything you see from the very limited view UK stations take. No beef with people working and you can like or not their output, given how bad UK media is as state propaganda, I doubt anyone could be worse.
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain
Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?
You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.
One thing that stood out from 2017 was Labour found a lot more new voters on Election Day. It wasn’t just a case so much of them taking a lot more votes from other parties .
It was a case of bigger turnout than expected from Labour leaning voters . You can clearly see that if you look at what happened with the ICM final poll which had the Tories 46 to 34 up . You can’t explain Labour adding on 7 points by movement from other parties .
It’s even more notable with the BMG poll . Perhaps evidence of a better ground game .
The Survation did best because it didn’t down weight certain pro Labour voter demographics according to history , but was happier to take them at their word.
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
Absolutely disgusting. Mosley was a Staffordshire lad as any ful kno.
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
Did they mix up the order PS: Lucky you are not Scottish or you would be permanently unimpressed.
Can we also please remember that even in Labour Leave seats, the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain.
If Labour makes clear its policy of a second referendum (and despite the dire polling, I think they all agree Remainers are going back to Labour), they can harmonise the Labour vote in those seats.
I remain absolutely unconvinced that Labour seats who didn't back May when she tried Johnson's approach, are going to back an Etonian this time. I just don't see it.
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
Does seem an oversight not to mention that he was Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster in a Labour government while a Labour MP.
In their partial defence, the show was recorded in Shrewsbury on Monday 7th October - before Johnson had a Brexit Deal, let alone an agreement for a general election - so the question of balance would not then have been so important. They ought to have edited the show, or reordered the episodes so that one was broadcast after the election, though.
Would also welcome views on the Remain/Leave debate here in terms of voting.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?
Asked if Jeremy Corbyn was a "friend to business", Dame Carolyn (director-general CBI) says: "We look at the policies on the table and we have real concerns that they are going to crack the foundations of our economy."
Aren't all the folk replying to 'Good morning, islamophobes' with 'Good morning whatevs' making an admission?
LOL no. Just feeding the troll.
But of course if people were behaving like that when the topic was antisemitism, you'd all be up in arms about what a disgrace it is.
The unstated assumption is often that prejudice against Jews is wrong but prejudice against Muslims is only natural considering.
No I would not. The topic here is politics and it is @Noo trolling to change the topic.
If someone came here and started every day saying good morning antisemites I'd think they were trolling too.
If I thought everyone on a site I was going to was an antisemite then I wouldn't greet people like that, I'd stop going to that site.
I don't think everyone on this site is islamophobic. But you definitely are. Comparing Muslims to the KKK is like comparing Jews to Nazis. It's not acceptable in any world.
This place has an islamophobia problem. Until that is addressed, I will continue to call it out.
I didn't compare Muslims to KKK. I compared extremism to extremism.
In your eyes does Muslim = Burqa? Because it doesn't to me. In your eyes does KKK = Christian? Because it doesn't to me.
I would never compare all Muslims to the KKK but I'm happy to contrast hateful extremists with them.
If you are pandering some sort of notion that Muslims wear burqas then you are Islamophobic. I believe there's probably a billion plus Muslims across the globe who do not.
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.
Would also welcome views on the Remain/Leave debate here in terms of voting.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?
You must remember there are many of us in the 48% who voted remain support leave in recognisation of democracy
I do not have a problem with those who want to remain canvassing to re-join but leaving just has to happen first
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
Absolutely disgusting. Mosley was a Staffordshire lad as any ful kno.
He was born in Mayfair, actually. That’s not, afaik, currently part of Staffordshire. (Yes, I know his parents were Staffs but we don’t want the bastard!)
In fact, @Charles, you could point out it it isn’t even technically correct as he was never a Conservative MP. He was a couponed Unionist for about a year, before sitting as an independent and then joining Labour.
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.
I'm surprised that the BBC licence fee hasn't resonated, but I suspect that it's a sufficient unto the day issue. After all, when is, like me, over 80, 'next year' is a concept that might not mean very much!
While that is important, what is more important is what young voters believe is being offered. Supposedly plenty last time thought existing student debts would be cancelled and it wasn't, so whether that is now policy or not it matters more if peopel think it is.
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.
I'm surprised that the BBC licence fee hasn't resonated, but I suspect that it's a sufficient unto the day issue. After all, when is, like me, over 80, 'next year' is a concept that might not mean very much!
You have to wonder how long the licence fee has got left. I could probably manage without it now, although as I still like watching live sport I’m keeping it for the moment.
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain
Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?
You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.
I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.
10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.
While that is important, what is more important is what young voters believe is being offered. Supposedly plenty last time thought existing student debts would be cancelled and it wasn't, so whether that is now policy or not it matters more if peopel think it is.
The ONS is now dumping £10bn per year of student bad debt on the government borrowing so that can be used to reduce student debt for 'free'.
Would also welcome views on the Remain/Leave debate here in terms of voting.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?
I think the answer is people are prepared to do so, and there are enough seats for it to work, but it won't be easy and requires a lot of the public to be more hard nosed in compromising who they'd rather vote for than the parties themselves have been. If the Tory poll rating is maintained then they have to be quite unlucky, seeing a Lab rise and good tactical voting for LD/PC and SNP, which I think is possible, but that's a lot to put on the shoulders of both Corbyn to pull off another big rise, and voters to act en masse intelligently enough.
While that is important, what is more important is what young voters believe is being offered. Supposedly plenty last time thought existing student debts would be cancelled and it wasn't, so whether that is now policy or not it matters more if peopel think it is.
'Students' are, in the main, only students for three years. Their debt is relevant for maybe those three, and perhaps the one before. After that they quickly realise that it's not a significant monthly repayment and they rather forget about it. At least that's my grandparental observation (n=3)!
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
Depends whether or not these voters have noticed the "free everything" pitch that has already been plastered all over the news.
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.
I'm surprised that the BBC licence fee hasn't resonated, but I suspect that it's a sufficient unto the day issue. After all, when is, like me, over 80, 'next year' is a concept that might not mean very much!
You have to wonder how long the licence fee has got left. I could probably manage without it now, although as I still like watching live sport I’m keeping it for the moment.
The next generation really don't watch it. Also, in this day and age it is also totally unenforceable.
From yesterdays Guardian, basically kids just watch the interwebs.
Comments
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn: “I’m not sure I’d define it as that”
Left wing Trump.
Alex Salmond is not a sitting MSP/MP.
The only other glimmer is what is happening on the ground here in Wimbledon. Lib Dems exceptionally strong with many former Tory and Labour voters all saying they will vote Lib Dem. Better than evens chance that Wimbledon falls to the LDs in my opinion.
In hindsight it will be seen as the moment Corbyn and McDonnell went too far and it is their dementia tax.
Since then, I am guessing the more people heard that in the future you would only be getting your internet from the Commie Cable Co and that shares in companies like BT (that anybody with a pension hold) were going down the tubes, might made people think further.
I think they could have achieved the same positive PR with free internet for the poor, widespread free public wifi and much more state investment in the infrastructure. They could have honestly claimed they were learning from the Estonian model, which provides the best IT infrastructure in Europe.
I said this after the dementia tax was revealed and I've got the same feeling now.
pennybillion, in a forpoundtrillion.(Nobody mentioned it on the doorstep yesterday. At all.)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Still, she did jolly well out of Boris's generosity. Try showing a little gratitude, sweetheart.
1. At GE2017 Corbyn won more votes for Labour in England (11.39 million) than Tony Blair at GE1997 (11.35 million).
2. Also in England, Labour won 36 more seats at GE2017 (227) than at their nadir under these boundaries at GE2010 (191).
3. In Wales, the Conservative Party share of the vote at GE2017 (33.6%) was their equal highest (with 1935) since at least before 1918.
4. At GE2017 a record 21.7% of all votes were cast by post. This means that the election will substantially have occurred fairly soon, now that nominations have closed.
5. Turnout for postal votes issued at GE2017 was 83.1%, compared to the electorate-wide turnout of 68.8%, which I think makes the turnout for non-postal votes to be 65.7%. This might be something to consider, as any decline in turnout, say due to the weather, is plausibly more likely to affect non-postal voters.
This completely kills any last shred of economic credibility Labour were trying to claim. Nationalising the internet is such a completely ridiculous idea that even the most uninitiated can see it's not going to happen and anyone who suggests it is either an idiot or looking to do something sinister with that power.
Folk didn't want their own money being used to take care of them when they had dementia; they may also think Corbotel might be a bit daffy but I think that has less cut through.
I'm not saying it wasn't a bad policy (it was), it's just that I don't see any objective evidence it actually hurt her vote.
The reason she came unstuck was the don't knows going to Labour. And most of those were under the age of 40 hence this policy wasn't an attack on them anyway.
In any other election, 43% would have been a landslide. There's simply no basis to claim the dementia tax was what killed May's majority.
You can quibble whether it was the tax announcement itself, or the "Nothing Has Changed" omnishambles that followed, which perhaps crystallised a certain feeling about Theresa May, but one way or another it had an effect.
I don't think you can yet say the same about British Broadband. Labour are still up in the polls, of course, and it could be that the Tories are up more only because of the Farage surrender. Labour are still hoping for Johnson to make a similar mistake, and I suppose the Trump wildcard is yet to be played.
I believe the average gap is now something like:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1196025425094496258
So actually Labour is up to 32%, which means they're still climbing.
The Tories are on 42%, so they're climbing too.
Soon one party is going to stop climbing. And I don't believe for one second the Tories are going to poll 45%.
I'm not saying it didn't have an impact, I'm just saying that I don't believe it's the reason Labour polled 40% and she lost her majority.
If it had been absolutely catastophic, May would have polled less than Cameron - but she didn't, she polled massively more.
I'm just not convinced this was the reason for the 2017 disaster.
If by the 1st there's still a massive gap, I think it's not looking good at all.
Comparing Muslims to the KKK is like comparing Jews to Nazis. It's not acceptable in any world.
This place has an islamophobia problem. Until that is addressed, I will continue to call it out.
Like I said, I don't doubt it had an impact, I just don't think it's the reason Labour polled 40%. That's all.
Labour's plan may bring these programmes to a halt, or if not that then it might see them being curtailed, delaying widespread fibre broadband availability rather than accelerating it.
Labour could barely have chosen a worse time to propose nationalisation and a de facto state monopoly for broadband.
If a party has a 11% lead, 43% share and a leader with a small net *positive* rating how much tactical voting will there really be and will it really be more than last time?
Prehaps the party with a leader on minus 43% net rating is not going to recieve a more tactical vote than last time when compared to the leader with a + 4 net rating.
Just maybe.
I'm not saying it will work this time - I just think it's wrong and misleading to say that the reason Labour did so well was because of a social care policy. Labour did well because they weren't the Tories.
https://twitter.com/Freddygray31/status/1196019041665781761?s=20
On the other side, Jeremy Corbyn played a blinder. For instance, linking the rise in crime directly to Theresa May's cutting 20,000 police officers.
For the avoidance of doubt, I am not Boris, even though he and CCHQ clearly agree with my analysis and have therefore replaced Lynton Crosby with his protege, Isaac Levido, and pledged to recruit the missing 20,000 coppers.
(1) Why did May lose polling share during the campaign? Many argue it's because she ran a crap campaign, of which the Dementia Tax was a large part. She still polled more than Cameron because of the Brexit effect - clearly two things can have contrary effects at the same time.
(2) Why did Opposition support coalesce around Corbyn's Labour Party? Many argue that it was because the voters were tired of austerity, and Corbyn offered them free stuff. Or they argue that Corbyn is a good campaigner and genuinely inspired support. I tend to the view that voters baulked at the idea of May winning a thumping majority for various reasons, Brexit being one, but May's own personal weaknesses being another (which the Dementia Tax highlighted) and so voted Corbyn as the only way to prevent that majority.
Both these things need to happen again if Labour are to avoid defeat. It's been said that Johnson has not had a good campaign, but he doesn't seem to have dropped a Dementia Tax scale clanger yet. The offers of free stuff from Labour are not that convincing because the Tories are offering lots of free stuff, and so Labour are having to turn it up to 11 in response. If Corbyn did genuinely inspire support in 2017 he is now relatively a tarnished figure.
So that leaves Brexit. Will Remain voters panic at the thought of a Johnson majority and rally once more to the uncertain banner of the Labour Party? I find this hard to judge. On its own though, it won't be enough to avoid a Johnson majority - for that Labour also need the Johnson campaign to go awry - but it might be enough to make the difference between a modest majority and a landslide.
She could be facing a trial for attempted rape
https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1196036222327672832
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain
They were making a joke about Oswald Mosley on “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue” and described him as a Shropshire lad who became a Conservative MP before founding the British Union of Fascists.
Technically true, but utterly utterly misleading, in a negative way about one party in an election period. They really need to be more careful
The one thing that is clear from the polling is the huge lead that the Tories have over Labour amongst working class voters. Can this be really be sustainable over the period of an election campaign? A carefully scripted manifesto has the potential to being these Labour voters back home. Time will tell if the Labour brains trust can deliver on this...
You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.
It was a case of bigger turnout than expected from Labour leaning voters . You can clearly see that if you look at what happened with the ICM final poll which had the Tories 46 to 34 up . You can’t explain Labour adding on 7 points by movement from other parties .
It’s even more notable with the BMG poll . Perhaps evidence of a better ground game .
The Survation did best because it didn’t down weight certain pro Labour voter demographics according to history , but was happier to take them at their word.
PS: Lucky you are not Scottish or you would be permanently unimpressed.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1195961819610918913
If Labour makes clear its policy of a second referendum (and despite the dire polling, I think they all agree Remainers are going back to Labour), they can harmonise the Labour vote in those seats.
I remain absolutely unconvinced that Labour seats who didn't back May when she tried Johnson's approach, are going to back an Etonian this time. I just don't see it.
Can any Northern voters chip in here? I spent some time in the North a couple of years ago and my perception was they'd rather have their eyes pulled out than vote Tory. Perhaps that's changed.
In their partial defence, the show was recorded in Shrewsbury on Monday 7th October - before Johnson had a Brexit Deal, let alone an agreement for a general election - so the question of balance would not then have been so important. They ought to have edited the show, or reordered the episodes so that one was broadcast after the election, though.
If it's true that the country is now majority Remain, there are enough people who can vote and deny Johnson the majority he wants. The questions are: is this true; will these people be prepared to vote tactically; are these people in the right seats?
That's a feature, not a bug.
In your eyes does Muslim = Burqa? Because it doesn't to me.
In your eyes does KKK = Christian? Because it doesn't to me.
I would never compare all Muslims to the KKK but I'm happy to contrast hateful extremists with them.
If you are pandering some sort of notion that Muslims wear burqas then you are Islamophobic. I believe there's probably a billion plus Muslims across the globe who do not.
If they have then they're apparently not impressed. The manifesto itself will probably be offering more of the same, so it won't help change minds.
Then again, if they haven't then they probably won't notice the manifesto launch, either.
Policy will likely only matter during this campaign if the Tories make a colossal hash of it again, which seems highly unlikely. No repetition of the dementia tax, plus new hospitals and the Brexit deal, should be enough to preserve the gargantuan Tory advantage amongst older electors. If Labour is to avoid a heavy defeat then they'll be reliant on a combination of the brand loyalty vote coming back in the polling booth, and large-scale Remain tactical voting.
I do not have a problem with those who want to remain canvassing to re-join but leaving just has to happen first
In fact, @Charles, you could point out it it isn’t even technically correct as he was never a Conservative MP. He was a couponed Unionist for about a year, before sitting as an independent and then joining Labour.
10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?
From yesterdays Guardian, basically kids just watch the interwebs.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/nov/16/bbc-plans-to-drop-afternoon-newsround-as-children-go-online