politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at the Welsh constituency betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at the Welsh constituency betting
This looks like being a volatile election in many areas, but nowhere is that truer than in Wales. Five different parties are currently polling in double digits and none is yet polling above 30%. Current polls suggest that the current distribution of constituencies could be upended. Polling, of course, could still change dramatically before the election actually arrives.
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First.0
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Wow, Dem incumbent just won re election in Louisiana1
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I did very well in 2017 out of following tips on Welsh constituencies on here. Glad to read this piece, sadly Betfair market seems nascent at the moment.0
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Thanks for the header, Alastair.
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FPT @Barnesian
Where did you get Lab 30.2% from? The Greens are standing a candidate in Bristol NW. Why quote you are using a poll of 28.7% then use a poll of 30.2% instead? The figures quoted as being used were:Barnesian said:OK @Philip_Thompson
I've picked the first in your list - Bristol North West.
2017 Con 22,639 Lab 27,400 Valid voters 54,096
Con share 40.1% ie. -3.4% of 2017, or 92% of 2017
Lab share 30.2% (incl 1.5% green adjustment) ie. -10.8% of 2017, or 74% of 2017
Arithmetic swing (UNS)
Con = 22,639 - .034x54,096 = 20,800
Lab = 27,400 -.108x54,096= 21,558
Multiplicative swing (favours "lumpiness" ie. bigger effect on larger shares)
Con = 92% of 22,639 = 20,074
Lab = 74% of 27,400 = 20,276
I assume 80% additive and 20% multiplicative
Con = 20,655
Lab = 21,301
As LibDems were less than 30% of lab vote last time, I assume 40% of LibDems vote tactically for Labour ie extra 1,126 making 22,427 for labour.
BXP stand in this seat (Labour seat) so no transfer to Tories from BXP.
So Labour retain the seat.
NB MRP have Tories taking the seat with a bigger LibDem vote splitting the remain vote. Could happen. I don't know anything about the local campaign.
This has been a useful check of my model and the arithmetic.
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
So Lab share of 28.7% ie -12.3% of 2017, or 70% of 2017
Arithmetic swing (UNS)
Con = 22,639 - .034x54,096 = 20,800
Lab = 27,400 -.123x54,096= 20,746
Multiplicative swing (favours "lumpiness" ie. bigger effect on larger shares)
Con = 92% of 22,639 = 20,074
Lab = 70% of 27,400 = 19,180
If you assume 80% additive and 20% multiplicative
Con = 20,655
Lab = 20,432
So Tory Gain. Based on Lab 28.7% and Tory 40.1% you said you were using from last night's polls.0 -
Barnsian, I know you are basing your seat assessment only on polling. But in Scunthorpe, the recent saving of the steel works would get a degree of special pleading that the Govt. sees a lift. Ditto Blackpool South on suspending fracking.
I expect both to be Con Gain on current polling.0 -
This seems pretty thin gruel:
Russia may have had an impact on the result of the Brexit referendum
could not rule out that Kremlin-sanctioned disinformation campaigns influenced the landmark vote in 2016
the impact of propaganda disseminated by Russian media outlets including RT & Sputnik in the run-up to the Brexit referendum was “unquantifiable”.
https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1195824057272487944?s=20
I guess pretty much the same could be said of Obama's intervention for Remain; You could not rule out that it may have had an impact on the campaign, but it is unquantifiable.
I wonder if that is covered in the report?1 -
They could publish it and we could find out...CarlottaVance said:This seems pretty thin gruel:
Russia may have had an impact on the result of the Brexit referendum
could not rule out that Kremlin-sanctioned disinformation campaigns influenced the landmark vote in 2016
the impact of propaganda disseminated by Russian media outlets including RT & Sputnik in the run-up to the Brexit referendum was “unquantifiable”.
https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1195824057272487944?s=20
I guess pretty much the same could be said of Obama's intervention for Remain; You could not rule out that it may have had an impact on the campaign, but it is unquantifiable.
I wonder if that is covered in the report?0 -
Well that was an enlightening set of polls from last night, especially the constituency polling.
Could we see a few Tory gains or unlikely holds with a split opposition between Lab and LD - 40/30/30 results?0 -
Really? That's still an argument people are going with? They didnt back it at creation and havent abolished it yet?Arthur said:I'm looking forward to the big debate on Tuesday. There's just no way Johnson will win points for saying the Tories are more trustworthy on the NHS than Labour. The Tories voted against creating the NHS more than 20 times. The most one can say is that they haven't abolished it yet
I dont think anyone disputes the issue is labour territory, but for christ's sake the implication the tories want to get rid of the NHS and just havent gotten to it yet is among the laziest ideas in politics. Pretty sure we can find a lot of things both main parties used to oppose which they are not secretly now still trying to abolish.
I know the NHS is a religion in this country, and its fair enough to think the tories run the NHS badly, but 'they voted against creating it' as an argument for today? Come on.1 -
Indeed. I have a memory. At the corner of my mind. A misty water-colored memory of the way...such things blow up in coverage...FrancisUrquhart said:
If only there was a name for this effect...CarlottaVance said: 1 -
I'm certainly not about to argue they need such vast amounts of money and could not easily be taxed more, but how much should people be able to have?Dadge said:
What they do with their money is not relevant to the fact that they shouldn't have it. Every country should have a tax code that ensures that billionaires don't exist.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is scary as shit that half the population agree nobody should be a billionaire. That is literally saying Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffet should never be able to be in a position to change the world for the better.HYUFD said:51% of all voters and 67% of Labour voters say nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire.
79% of voters support raising tax on billionaires
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/half-brits-say-nobody-should-be-billionaire0 -
Very good header (and thanks for the Hobbit reference, you nerd). Wales being the next Scotland for volatility, but even more chaotically, is an intriguing possibility. Most such possibilities do not occur, but any area dominated for long enough probably needs the shake up, it's a shame so many clusters of cities or shires in England do not get shaken up, even when they used not to be so safe.0
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If Corbyn gets it there won't be any billionaires left in the UK - at least not for a few years, until the hyperinflation really kicks in.kle4 said:
I'm certainly not about to argue they need such vast amounts of money and could not easily be taxed more, but how much should people be able to have?Dadge said:
What they do with their money is not relevant to the fact that they shouldn't have it. Every country should have a tax code that ensures that billionaires don't exist.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is scary as shit that half the population agree nobody should be a billionaire. That is literally saying Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffet should never be able to be in a position to change the world for the better.HYUFD said:51% of all voters and 67% of Labour voters say nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire.
79% of voters support raising tax on billionaires
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/half-brits-say-nobody-should-be-billionaire0 -
Yet again, "may" doing a lot of heavy lifting with Remainers.....CarlottaVance said:This seems pretty thin gruel:
Russia may have had an impact on the result of the Brexit referendum
could not rule out that Kremlin-sanctioned disinformation campaigns influenced the landmark vote in 2016
the impact of propaganda disseminated by Russian media outlets including RT & Sputnik in the run-up to the Brexit referendum was “unquantifiable”.
https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1195824057272487944?s=20
I guess pretty much the same could be said of Obama's intervention for Remain; You could not rule out that it may have had an impact on the campaign, but it is unquantifiable.
I wonder if that is covered in the report?0 -
Yes yes, but I'm genuinely interested if people have some theorized upper limit on wealth which is acceptable, say as a multiplier of some basic low figure, given as you imply someone ok at 750 million now wont be given some inflation.Sandpit said:
If Corbyn gets it there won't be any billionaires left in the UK - at least not for a few years, until the hyperinflation really kicks in.kle4 said:
I'm certainly not about to argue they need such vast amounts of money and could not easily be taxed more, but how much should people be able to have?Dadge said:
What they do with their money is not relevant to the fact that they shouldn't have it. Every country should have a tax code that ensures that billionaires don't exist.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is scary as shit that half the population agree nobody should be a billionaire. That is literally saying Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffet should never be able to be in a position to change the world for the better.HYUFD said:51% of all voters and 67% of Labour voters say nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire.
79% of voters support raising tax on billionaires
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/half-brits-say-nobody-should-be-billionaire0 -
Of course not, on the contrary we should be encouraging as many of the world's billionaires to base themselves and their companies in the UK as possible.kle4 said:
Yes yes, but I'm genuinely interested if people have some theorized upper limit on wealth which is acceptable, say as a multiplier of some basic low figure, given as you imply someone ok at 750 million now wont be given some inflation.Sandpit said:
If Corbyn gets it there won't be any billionaires left in the UK - at least not for a few years, until the hyperinflation really kicks in.kle4 said:
I'm certainly not about to argue they need such vast amounts of money and could not easily be taxed more, but how much should people be able to have?Dadge said:
What they do with their money is not relevant to the fact that they shouldn't have it. Every country should have a tax code that ensures that billionaires don't exist.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is scary as shit that half the population agree nobody should be a billionaire. That is literally saying Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffet should never be able to be in a position to change the world for the better.HYUFD said:51% of all voters and 67% of Labour voters say nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire.
79% of voters support raising tax on billionaires
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/half-brits-say-nobody-should-be-billionaire
That's done with a much simpler tax code, with fewer exemptions and lower rates, incentives for research and development, and more tax raising powers devolved locally to allow councils and cities to compete for business.
Edit: Oh, and above all, a stable regulatory environment - which means having someone like Tony Blair as an alternative PM, not Jeremy Corbyn.1 -
"Nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire" is a weirdly infantile way of putting it, as if it's an accolade for personal merit. Nobody deserves to be poor, or ill, or disabled either.
And "billionaires do so much good" is a pretty baffling argument too. If I stole everything you own from you, or won it off you in a bet, I could do you a lot of good by giving you 10% of it back. I still wouldn't be a net positive in your life.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’0 -
I dunno, what about the amount it would take a household with median income after tax and benefits 1000 years to earn if they didn't spend any money at all.kle4 said:
Yes yes, but I'm genuinely interested if people have some theorized upper limit on wealth which is acceptable, say as a multiplier of some basic low figure, given as you imply someone ok at 750 million now wont be given some inflation.Sandpit said:
If Corbyn gets it there won't be any billionaires left in the UK - at least not for a few years, until the hyperinflation really kicks in.kle4 said:
I'm certainly not about to argue they need such vast amounts of money and could not easily be taxed more, but how much should people be able to have?Dadge said:
What they do with their money is not relevant to the fact that they shouldn't have it. Every country should have a tax code that ensures that billionaires don't exist.FrancisUrquhart said:
That is scary as shit that half the population agree nobody should be a billionaire. That is literally saying Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffet should never be able to be in a position to change the world for the better.HYUFD said:51% of all voters and 67% of Labour voters say nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire.
79% of voters support raising tax on billionaires
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/half-brits-say-nobody-should-be-billionaire
That would get you to almost 30 million quid in the UK. Seems a bit low but still a reasonable baseline for "more than anyone needs" or "more than is healthy for anyone to have"0 -
Man does not have loyalty towards his past mistress, and she is surprised?IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’0 -
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.0 -
Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/pete-buttigieg-leads-new-iowa-poll-warren-sanders-biden-follow/4198100002/
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And yet that is one of the basic political dividing lines.IshmaelZ said:"Nobody deserves to be rich enough to be a billionaire" is a weirdly infantile way of putting it, as if it's an accolade for personal merit. Nobody deserves to be poor, or ill, or disabled either.
And "billionaires do so much good" is a pretty baffling argument too. If I stole everything you own from you, or won it off you in a bet, I could do you a lot of good by giving you 10% of it back. I still wouldn't be a net positive in your life.
"right wing" generally believing that people are mostly responsible for their own situation and rich are rich and poor are poor because they deserve it, and it's wrong of government to interfere in this.
"left wing" generally believing people mostly don't deserve to be rich or poor and government should intervene to try to make life fairer.
Now we have an extreme version of the first philosophy which says that the only way to value anything is by how much short term profit it can make for somebody. And that as being rich is a sign of being deserving, it's government's moral duty to make sure the richest can become even richer.0 -
Re Welsh polls, BXP will get some votes but no seats; LDs will lose Brecon and struggle in Ceredigion. Plaid will hold Ceredigion (but only just) and win Ynys Mon. Conservatives will make around 6-7 gains but will lose Vale of Glamorgan to Labour. Labour will lose seats but not as many as some commentators/rampers suggest.
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Conservative gains in Gower, Newport West, Brecon, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South.Penddu2 said:Re Welsh polls, BXP will get some votes but no seats; LDs will lose Brecon and struggle in Ceredigion. Plaid will hold Ceredigion (but only just) and win Ynys Mon. Conservatives will make around 6-7 gains but will lose Vale of Glamorgan to Labour. Labour will lose seats but not as many as some commentators/rampers suggest.
Maybe Bridgend0 -
How do the Tories lose Glamorgan to Lab ?!0
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Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote BorisSandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.0 -
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.Banterman said:
Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote BorisSandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
We all know he can't keep his, erm, Johnson, in his pants, yes that's priced in - but if he's been doling out public money to his mistress (as opposed to a friend) then he's in big trouble and could well be forced to resign.0 -
William Barr is going to become the next Robert Bork.
His speech to the Fedarlist society is a nakedly political advertisement for what he would do if selected for the Supreme Court whilst simultaneously demonstrating why he is a partisan hack totally unsuitable for the Supreme Court.
His speech makes me vomit just reading it.0 -
Damn it, we're going to have to learn how to pronounce his name aren't we?rcs1000 said:Buttigieg now nine points clear in Iowa: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/pete-buttigieg-leads-new-iowa-poll-warren-sanders-biden-follow/4198100002/
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O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?0 -
I know several professional gamblers.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
There's Tony Bloom, the owner of Brighton Football Club. Then there is Matthew Benham, who owns Brentwood FC. Finally there's Zeljko Ranogajec in Tasmania, although I'm slightly sceptical of whether he is as good (or as successful) as he is likes to make out.
I know a few tens of people below this mega level who make enough to live on.0 -
Alun Cairns.Pulpstar said:How do the Tories lose Glamorgan to Lab ?!
But it really shouldn't be happening. Tories and Labour between them got 48,800 of the 53,700 votes cast in 2017. This time no UKIP (or Brexit of course), no LibDem, no Plaid, no Women's Equality and no Pirates. Just the Greens and a Gwlad candidate.
It SHOULD be Tory by 5k. But...Alun Cairns.0 -
I'm not entirely sure it is priced in. I suspect it's been kept quiet enough to be almost forgotten, except among the cognoscenti, but if it makes the front pages again it will make a difference.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.Banterman said:
Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote BorisSandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
We all know he can't keep his, erm, Johnson, in his pants, yes that's priced in - but if he's been doling out public money to his mistress (as opposed to a friend) then he's in big trouble and could well be forced to resign.
I suspect it won't swing many votes but it may well alienate enough people to make them stay at home, or not help with the election
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It's been in the headlines before, with the GLA investigating him.OldKingCole said:
I'm not entirely sure it is priced in. I suspect it's been kept quiet enough to be almost forgotten, except among the cognoscenti, but if it makes the front pages again it will make a difference.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.Banterman said:
Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote BorisSandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
We all know he can't keep his, erm, Johnson, in his pants, yes that's priced in - but if he's been doling out public money to his mistress (as opposed to a friend) then he's in big trouble and could well be forced to resign.
I suspect it won't swing many votes but it may well alienate enough people to make them stay at home, or not help with the election0 -
Him being something of a philanderer is I think priced in, but if this particular relationship is confirmed (as opposed to speculated upon) then Johnson could be in serious trouble, it being a criminal offence of Malfeasance in Public Office to not declare such an obvious conflict of interest when handing out public money.OldKingCole said:
I'm not entirely sure it is priced in. I suspect it's been kept quiet enough to be almost forgotten, except among the cognoscenti, but if it makes the front pages again it will make a difference.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.Banterman said:
Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote BorisSandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
We all know he can't keep his, erm, Johnson, in his pants, yes that's priced in - but if he's been doling out public money to his mistress (as opposed to a friend) then he's in big trouble and could well be forced to resign.
I suspect it won't swing many votes but it may well alienate enough people to make them stay at home, or not help with the election0 -
David Spiegelhalter once said about betting on sport, that if you want to start writing programs to work out the probabilites and then use that to bet on, you need to know that there are companies out there doing this kind of thing, and you will be betting against them.rcs1000 said:
I know several professional gamblers.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
There's Tony Bloom, the owner of Brighton Football Club. Then there is Matthew Benham, who owns Brentwood FC. Finally there's Zeljko Ranogajec in Tasmania, although I'm slightly sceptical of whether he is as good (or as successful) as he is likes to make out.
I know a few tens of people below this mega level who make enough to live on.
I too know some pople who make a living out of gambling.0 -
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.Sandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.0 -
Ŵ
Her flurry into press and Tv suggests that she is willing to spill the beans, but hasn’t yet. It may be a threat in which case I wonder what she wants from Bozo now. If she talks to the GLA inquiry, he is toast.RobD said:
It's been in the headlines before, with the GLA investigating him.OldKingCole said:
I'm not entirely sure it is priced in. I suspect it's been kept quiet enough to be almost forgotten, except among the cognoscenti, but if it makes the front pages again it will make a difference.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.Banterman said:
Boris doing the beast with 2 backs with her is what everyone understands happened. Already priced into vote BorisSandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
We all know he can't keep his, erm, Johnson, in his pants, yes that's priced in - but if he's been doling out public money to his mistress (as opposed to a friend) then he's in big trouble and could well be forced to resign.
I suspect it won't swing many votes but it may well alienate enough people to make them stay at home, or not help with the election0 -
If you allow incentives for this and that you are not going to end up with a much simpler tax system.Sandpit said:Of course not, on the contrary we should be encouraging as many of the world's billionaires to base themselves and their companies in the UK as possible.
That's done with a much simpler tax code, ... incentives for research and development
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Could be. I don't know.MarqueeMark said:Barnsian, I know you are basing your seat assessment only on polling. But in Scunthorpe, the recent saving of the steel works would get a degree of special pleading that the Govt. sees a lift. Ditto Blackpool South on suspending fracking.
I expect both to be Con Gain on current polling.0 -
When your starting point is the world's longest and most complex tax code (more than 17,000 pages), it's not difficult to make it considerably simpler.eristdoof said:
If you allow incentives for this and that you are not going to end up with a much simpler tax system.Sandpit said:Of course not, on the contrary we should be encouraging as many of the world's billionaires to base themselves and their companies in the UK as possible.
That's done with a much simpler tax code, ... incentives for research and development
Even the Guardian agree with me:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/13/britain-tax-code-17000-pages-long-dog-whistle-very-rich0 -
Perhaps Labour could stick her on the side of a bus?IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’0 -
More anti EU migrant bile likely to be dished out by the Tories over the coming days . We’re back to 2016 .0
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More serious, if it amounts to a criminal offence.IanB2 said:
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.Sandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.0 -
Is PP making a speech then?nico67 said:More anti EU migrant bile likely to be dished out by the Tories over the coming days . We’re back to 2016 .
0 -
We had the honours scandal under Blair.. where did that get to?Chris said:
More serious, if it amounts to a criminal offence.IanB2 said:
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.Sandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.0 -
The uplift in the Labour share is assumed to be 40% of the national Green share t model tactical voting by Green voters. There will be some tactical voting for Labour and Greens in Bristol West which you have totally left out in your calculation which makes it a Labour hold.Philip_Thompson said:FPT @Barnesian
Where did you get Lab 30.2% from? The Greens are standing a candidate in Bristol NW. Why quote you are using a poll of 28.7% then use a poll of 30.2% instead? The figures quoted as being used were:Barnesian said:OK @Philip_Thompson
I've picked the first in your list - Bristol North West.
2017 Con 22,639 Lab 27,400 Valid voters 54,096
Con share 40.1% ie. -3.4% of 2017, or 92% of 2017
Lab share 30.2% (incl 1.5% green adjustment) ie. -10.8% of 2017, or 74% of 2017
Arithmetic swing (UNS)
Con = 22,639 - .034x54,096 = 20,800
Lab = 27,400 -.108x54,096= 21,558
Multiplicative swing (favours "lumpiness" ie. bigger effect on larger shares)
Con = 92% of 22,639 = 20,074
Lab = 74% of 27,400 = 20,276
I assume 80% additive and 20% multiplicative
Con = 20,655
Lab = 21,301
As LibDems were less than 30% of lab vote last time, I assume 40% of LibDems vote tactically for Labour ie extra 1,126 making 22,427 for labour.
BXP stand in this seat (Labour seat) so no transfer to Tories from BXP.
So Labour retain the seat.
NB MRP have Tories taking the seat with a bigger LibDem vote splitting the remain vote. Could happen. I don't know anything about the local campaign.
This has been a useful check of my model and the arithmetic.
Con 40.1% (+1.5%)
Lab 28.7 (+0.6)
LD 15.3 (-1.1)
BXP 7.5 (-0.9)
So Lab share of 28.7% ie -12.3% of 2017, or 70% of 2017
Arithmetic swing (UNS)
Con = 22,639 - .034x54,096 = 20,800
Lab = 27,400 -.123x54,096= 20,746
Multiplicative swing (favours "lumpiness" ie. bigger effect on larger shares)
Con = 92% of 22,639 = 20,074
Lab = 70% of 27,400 = 19,180
If you assume 80% additive and 20% multiplicative
Con = 20,655
Lab = 20,432
So Tory Gain. Based on Lab 28.7% and Tory 40.1% you said you were using from last night's polls.
I am going to upgrade my model to make the Green tactical vote specific to each constituency (rather than have a crude uplift to the national Labour share.
I'm also going to follow a suggestion of @Richard_Tyndall that I explicitly model BXP tactical votes by constituency.
Later.0 -
The shagging won't be an issue. Even Big G, pb.com's paladin of probity, considers that voters will think of Boris as, 'one of the lads'.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.
However, if it comes out he is some sort of hentai grade perv or has been witlessly cruel to her then it could have an adverse effect.0 -
Boris is someone who is already known to use abortion as a means of birth control (I say that as his partners have used it more than once)Dura_Ace said:
The shagging won't be an issue. Even Big G, pb.com's paladin of probity, considers that voters will think of Boris as, 'one of the lads'.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.
However, if it comes out he is some sort of hentai grade perv or has been witlessly cruel to her then it could have an adverse effect.
I suspect nothing will come of this "scandal" because the money bit is already known and the rest of it is meh..0 -
Tory minority govt at 11.5 looks value to me (betfair).0
-
I think we have to accept that Bozo has a Teflon suit on .
He’s got the Leavers who will vote for him regardless , he could do anything and get away with it .0 -
And that is your business, how?eek said:
Boris is someone who is already known to use abortion as a means of birth control (I say that as his partners have used it more than once)Dura_Ace said:
The shagging won't be an issue. Even Big G, pb.com's paladin of probity, considers that voters will think of Boris as, 'one of the lads'.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.
However, if it comes out he is some sort of hentai grade perv or has been witlessly cruel to her then it could have an adverse effect.
I suspect nothing will come of this "scandal" because the money bit is already known and the rest of it is meh..
And if only women were morally autonomous, so that we could describe this as them using abortion as a means of birth control. Just haven't the brains, sadly.0 -
Maybe. If he has done something criminally naughty, it is interesting to speculate who might become PM, inheriting his tidy majority...nico67 said:I think we have to accept that Bozo has a Teflon suit on .
He’s got the Leavers who will vote for him regardless , he could do anything and get away with it .0 -
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.0 -
It is.IanB2 said:
Sex gets the story into the tabloids, but misusing political office to financially help your friends is equally serious even if they spent their many long dark evenings together playing chess.Sandpit said:
She seems awfully upset, given that she's still not saying there was a sexual relationship between the pair of them - and that is key to whether Johnson's behaviour was okay or not.IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’
This story is still my one big concern about the campaign though - Johnson could still be undone by it, and it's the sort of story that journalists love to talk about. If Arcuri admits a sexual relationship and has good evidence to prove the story, then it could turn the election overnight.
Unfortunately as Corbyn and McCluskey are guilty of precisely the same offence on multiple occasions they will not dare go with it, and without them pushing it the story will die off.0 -
Just publish the report so we can all decide!CarlottaVance said:This seems pretty thin gruel:
Russia may have had an impact on the result of the Brexit referendum
could not rule out that Kremlin-sanctioned disinformation campaigns influenced the landmark vote in 2016
the impact of propaganda disseminated by Russian media outlets including RT & Sputnik in the run-up to the Brexit referendum was “unquantifiable”.
https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1195824057272487944?s=20
I guess pretty much the same could be said of Obama's intervention for Remain; You could not rule out that it may have had an impact on the campaign, but it is unquantifiable.
I wonder if that is covered in the report?1 -
On topic, great threader Alistair. If we’re talking Five Armies the Tories are the Orcs and Labour the Wargs. There’s no sign yet of elves, men or dwarves.
I would say however that you are in error over Ynys Môn. True, they vote for individuals not parties. However, Albert Owen is retiring so that doesn’t apply. Usually under such circumstances (by which I mean, on every occasion since 1929) they also go for a new MP from a different party. Therefore I would expect a Plaid gain.
That said, a Tory gain isn’t out of the question if the cards fall right, disastrous though Brexit would be for the island. There might be value there. But instinct says they will come second, with Labour third.0 -
Even after a night's sleep last night's polling for the Tories looks pretty spectacular and I can't help feeling is not reflected in Alastair's excellent piece (for understandable reasons). The net of effect of that polling would be that the Tories would be up more than the 1% he has assumed and Labour just might not recover some of its "lost" vote share after all. It also looks likely that that BP share may go Tory in quite a large way, even in seats where they are standing.
It was only 1 day of course and there is much still to happen, the debate this week, the manifestos and no doubt a scandal or two but right now Labour may prove to be less resilient than Alastair implies. Seats like Alyn & Deeside and Bridgend may well be offering real value for those who can bring themselves to bet on the Tories.0 -
I am very much afraid that most people already think that anyway. And if you* are going to vote for him anyway, that suggests you don’t give a flying fuck.Dura_Ace said:
The shagging won't be an issue. Even Big G, pb.com's paladin of probity, considers that voters will think of Boris as, 'one of the lads'.Sandpit said:
The scandal isn't the sex aspect though, it's the combination of the sex and money aspects, the former being key to the latter.
However, if it comes out he is some sort of hentai grade perv or has been witlessly cruel to her then it could have an adverse effect.
*Not you personally, obviously!0 -
Now, if only we could get our hands on Alpha Zero.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.0 -
Are there many Mail readers in Carmarthen East? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693489/Labour-Election-candidate-ran-secret-Facebook-group-advises-party-Holocaust-deniers.html
Perhaps due diligence wasn't so good after all. The publicity might not be to the Labour candidate's advantage.0 -
A strong Brexit Party showing in the Welsh Valleys, and other core Labour areas is the sort of thing which might make the Labour vote much more efficient than last time, rather than lose them any seats.
You can see this in the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections where Labour lost 7.6 pp of vote share, but only lost one constituency seat.0 -
That might actually be the way out of this hole we’ve dug.MarqueeMark said:
Maybe. If he has done something criminally naughty, it is interesting to speculate who might become PM, inheriting his tidy majority...nico67 said:I think we have to accept that Bozo has a Teflon suit on .
He’s got the Leavers who will vote for him regardless , he could do anything and get away with it .
Johnson is accused of a crime.
Slogan becomes, ‘Vote for the crook, not the fascist.‘
Johnson wins thumping majority.
Johnson is locked up and sanity returns to both parties.
I could live with this...although I’d still prefer Labour to lose 200 seats and have a solitary gain in Uxbridge.0 -
Alternatively, with exchange betting, all you need is an information edge over the millions of casual gamblers sitting on their phones in the pub, as opposed to the other professionals at the more traditional bookies.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.0 -
I don’t know what would upset them more in Llandovery and Llandeilo - the Holocaust denial, or the bizarre suggestion that Labour had a chance of winning the seat.dr_spyn said:Are there many Mail readers in Carmarthen East? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693489/Labour-Election-candidate-ran-secret-Facebook-group-advises-party-Holocaust-deniers.html
Perhaps due diligence wasn't so good after all. The publicity might not be to the Labour candidate's advantage.0 -
Incidentally, I see Labour’s manifesto has leaked overnight, and we know it’s the real deal as Aaron Peters has claimed it’s fake news.
I am astounded at the suggestion of price controls. Did Corbyn learn nothing from watching Heath?0 -
Weren't the Orcs and Wargs on the same side? I don't recall for sure because Tolkien is so monumentally dull.ydoethur said:On topic, great threader Alistair. If we’re talking Five Armies the Tories are the Orcs and Labour the Wargs. There’s no sign yet of elves, men or dwarves.
I would say however that you are in error over Ynys Môn. True, they vote for individuals not parties. However, Albert Owen is retiring so that doesn’t apply. Usually under such circumstances (by which I mean, on every occasion since 1929) they also go for a new MP from a different party. Therefore I would expect a Plaid gain.
That said, a Tory gain isn’t out of the question if the cards fall right, disastrous though Brexit would be for the island. There might be value there. But instinct says they will come second, with Labour third.0 -
Two words.... Alun Cairnsrcs1000 said:
Practise.Pulpstar said:How do the Tories lose Glamorgan to Lab ?!
He is already in trouble - but Plaid decision to stand down will see their votes move to Labour - even if they dont really mean it...they will hold their noses and vote against the cocky midget.0 -
The biggest difficulty with professional gambling is surely getting on with sufficient size and for exchange the Betfair Premium charge ?0
-
The bookmakers are in the business of setting a book that will attract customers. Their odds will be based on their assessment of the probabilities but also based on many more market factors.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.
A small professional gambler should be on the lookout to take advantage of these differences.
1 -
The Wargs supported the Orcs and allowed them to do what they wished. They carried them into battle and were massacred with them.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Weren't the Orcs and Wargs on the same side? I don't recall for sure because Tolkien is so monumentally dull.ydoethur said:On topic, great threader Alistair. If we’re talking Five Armies the Tories are the Orcs and Labour the Wargs. There’s no sign yet of elves, men or dwarves.
I would say however that you are in error over Ynys Môn. True, they vote for individuals not parties. However, Albert Owen is retiring so that doesn’t apply. Usually under such circumstances (by which I mean, on every occasion since 1929) they also go for a new MP from a different party. Therefore I would expect a Plaid gain.
That said, a Tory gain isn’t out of the question if the cards fall right, disastrous though Brexit would be for the island. There might be value there. But instinct says they will come second, with Labour third.
Exactly like Labour and the Tories.
Well, I can hope.0 -
Sorry to be so ungallant on a Sunday morn, but given the amount of comfort eating La Arcuri appears to have been doing it'd have to be a big bus. At least Stormy has kept in shape.Roger said:
Perhaps Labour could stick her on the side of a bus?IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’0 -
This is why laying Rossi is consistently profitable in MotoGP. His fans (aka the Valeban) will back him relentlessly no matter how old and crap he gets.Sandpit said:
Alternatively, with exchange betting, all you need is an information edge over the millions of casual gamblers sitting on their phones in the pub, as opposed to the other professionals at the more traditional bookies.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.1 -
Did PB reach a consensus as to how much of the Tory bounce was a mechanical reaction to the Brexit party not standing in 300+ seats rich in Brexit party voters who would naturally swing back to the Tories? (I'm not trying to minimise it, just trying to understand it, since it's a first order issue for the key Lab/Con battlegrounds).DavidL said:Even after a night's sleep last night's polling for the Tories looks pretty spectacular and I can't help feeling is not reflected in Alastair's excellent piece (for understandable reasons). The net of effect of that polling would be that the Tories would be up more than the 1% he has assumed and Labour just might not recover some of its "lost" vote share after all. It also looks likely that that BP share may go Tory in quite a large way, even in seats where they are standing.
It was only 1 day of course and there is much still to happen, the debate this week, the manifestos and no doubt a scandal or two but right now Labour may prove to be less resilient than Alastair implies. Seats like Alyn & Deeside and Bridgend may well be offering real value for those who can bring themselves to bet on the Tories.0 -
Meanwhile Matt goes festive:
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist
This sums up Corbyn's problem this time around as well as anything.0 -
If Dura_Ace's poster is claiming he's making bank by just selecting winners in the EPL then I would be sceptical. But given the plethora of other markets available on the EPL I'm sure there is scope to be making money.0
-
I think consensus would be a strong word. What I think is clear is that May's 42% is no longer the available peak as TBP supporters climb on board with the result that Labour's modest recovery is not assisting them at all in those Lab/Con battlegrounds. Indeed, they are, according to the majority of the pollsters, going backwards.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Did PB reach a consensus as to how much of the Tory bounce was a mechanical reaction to the Brexit party not standing in 300+ seats rich in Brexit party voters who would naturally swing back to the Tories? (I'm not trying to minimise it, just trying to understand it, since it's a first order issue for the key Lab/Con battlegrounds).DavidL said:Even after a night's sleep last night's polling for the Tories looks pretty spectacular and I can't help feeling is not reflected in Alastair's excellent piece (for understandable reasons). The net of effect of that polling would be that the Tories would be up more than the 1% he has assumed and Labour just might not recover some of its "lost" vote share after all. It also looks likely that that BP share may go Tory in quite a large way, even in seats where they are standing.
It was only 1 day of course and there is much still to happen, the debate this week, the manifestos and no doubt a scandal or two but right now Labour may prove to be less resilient than Alastair implies. Seats like Alyn & Deeside and Bridgend may well be offering real value for those who can bring themselves to bet on the Tories.
2017 makes cowards of us all but the results are way out line with the current spreads.0 -
Yes, there's always a lot of fans who will back their side no matter what are the actual probabilities, which generally leads to the best-supported athlete or team being shorter than should be the case.Dura_Ace said:
This is why laying Rossi is consistently profitable in MotoGP. His fans (aka the Valeban) will back him relentlessly no matter how old and crap he gets.Sandpit said:
Alternatively, with exchange betting, all you need is an information edge over the millions of casual gamblers sitting on their phones in the pub, as opposed to the other professionals at the more traditional bookies.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.
The best example is probably when England national teams play at football or rugby, when the value bet is almost always laying them (cricket fans tend to be somewhat better informed and methodical in their betting strategies).
If I could find a Dutch bookie I'd be laying Max Verstappen to win today's Grand Prix, they probably have him 1/10.0 -
I used to work for professional horse racing gamblers but at that point they'd monetized it with premium rate phone lines and subscription services. There was a genuine betting philosophy based on value (e.g. if you keep backing 40/1 shots that should be 20/1 you'll make money) but Betfair kinda screwed that. It was largely based round the Racing Post Pricewise column, they had a guru whose name I forget.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?0 -
I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.0 -
I made enough money to live on for a short while, without knowing much. Just taking advantage of the at that time generous (if you knew what you were doing) online casino bonuses, sports betting arbs, getting on way out-of-line odds with bookies slow to change, and occasionally getting a good tip.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.
I haven't done any betting for while now, and I think those angles are more difficult to exploit these days, but for sure if you know what you're doing you can beat the bookies. The real problem is getting accounts closed down/limited to peanuts.
To get round this, I guess you either have to find opportunities on the exchanges, or find other people to put your bets on. Or use cash at shops - although they also get to know you and often limit you, and this must have got worse since I was doing it. I was once accused of being part of a "cartel" when trying to put 500 quid on the result of a football match on the printed coupon.
1 -
Shadow Cabinet anagrams 2019 election edition-
Harboring crud
Me terribly horny
To be a bandit / obtain a debt
Rare angry bird
Hifi farting
Wart bundle
Enlarge a yarn
2 -
Yes, Paddypower are limiting me to £1.50 on constituencies, though other bookies have not caught up with me yet.Pulpstar said:The biggest difficulty with professional gambling is surely getting on with sufficient size and for exchange the Betfair Premium charge ?
I bet on football, but not profitably (though if Leicester City win the PL again...). Politics is something that I feel that I have an edge on though and makes me £1000 or so per year. Not enough to live on though.
My Spreadex looks good, the spreads do seem to be lagging the polls. I reckon Con 355 should be the midpoint. The gearing keeps me from upping stakes too much.0 -
I'm often wondering why this is not also a thing with political betting.Dura_Ace said:
This is why laying Rossi is consistently profitable in MotoGP. His fans (aka the Valeban) will back him relentlessly no matter how old and crap he gets.Sandpit said:
Alternatively, with exchange betting, all you need is an information edge over the millions of casual gamblers sitting on their phones in the pub, as opposed to the other professionals at the more traditional bookies.Alistair said:
Yes.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
All you need to be a professional gambler is a consistent source of knowledge that bookies don't have. Whether that knowledge is concrete information consistent inside line on team selection on 3rd division Scottish football or statistical analysis that bookies haven't cottoned onto, like the realisation that there isn't any home advantage in 3rd division Scottish football.
On another gambling forum if frequent I saw someone have a system for predicting the under/over line on total corners in a football match that was so profitable ovre so long a period of time he stopped posting his tips to the forum and started just monetising it full time.
There's loads of angles to hit, even in the age of professional firms statistically analysing the shit out of sport to bet on. For example even in the year of our lord twenty nineteen bookies do not take into account the weather when setting the handicap for Rugby Union matches.
Take out the objective gamblers, who are prepared to bet against their political wishes, there are a few on this site.
What is left is a hugh market consisting of people who bet "with the heart" or at least allow their heart to colour their betting strategy. The betting market is then going to be influenced 10 to 1 by those who put a 100 quid stake down compared to those who put 10 quid down. Now ask yourself what is the "average" political charateristics of these two groups.
To put it crudely, aren't the conservatives going to be shorter odds than the true price.0 -
Mail on Sunday: somebody has stuck ten grand on Zac to hold Richmond.
Bold.1 -
Newport East is one that will I think trend Tory over time. A lot of Bristolians are moving into the M4 corridor in search of cheaper housing now the Severn Bridge tolls have been abolished. While normally these would be Labour voters, there will probably be a backlash over the decision not to extend the M48 across the Glamorgan levels to relieve the pressure on the M4 tunnels.Casino_Royale said:I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
I would however be surprised if it fell on this occasion.0 -
I admire your diligence but outside McDOnnell and Abbot how many know who is even in the shadow cabinet this week?TrèsDifficile said:Shadow Cabinet anagrams 2019 election edition-
Harboring crud
Me terribly horny
To be a bandit / obtain a debt
Rare angry bird
Hifi farting
Wart bundle
Enlarge a yarn0 -
Why? Bookmakers are rich enough to manage without charity.MarqueeMark said:Mail on Sunday: somebody has stuck ten grand on Zac to hold Richmond.
Bold.
I have an eight foot horn to go and pull out. Have a good morning.0 -
Presumably soon to be seen posting "Only Labour can beat Zac" leaflets through every letterbox in the constituency?MarqueeMark said:Mail on Sunday: somebody has stuck ten grand on Zac to hold Richmond.
Bold.0 -
Have they *still* not sorted out the Brynglas tunnels? They were a massive bottleneck two decades ago!ydoethur said:
Newport East is one that will I think trend Tory over time. A lot of Bristolians are moving into the M4 corridor in search of cheaper housing now the Severn Bridge tolls have been abolished. While normally these would be Labour voters, there will probably be a backlash over the decision not to extend the M48 across the Glamorgan levels to relieve the pressure on the M4 tunnels.Casino_Royale said:I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
I would however be surprised if it fell on this occasion.0 -
Ditto all of that for Torfaen.ydoethur said:
Newport East is one that will I think trend Tory over time. A lot of Bristolians are moving into the M4 corridor in search of cheaper housing now the Severn Bridge tolls have been abolished. While normally these would be Labour voters, there will probably be a backlash over the decision not to extend the M48 across the Glamorgan levels to relieve the pressure on the M4 tunnels.Casino_Royale said:I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
I would however be surprised if it fell on this occasion.0 -
'So they're gonna need a bigger bus...'Theuniondivvie said:
Sorry to be so ungallant on a Sunday morn, but given the amount of comfort eating La Arcuri appears to have been doing it'd have to be a big bus. At least Stormy has kept in shape.Roger said:
Perhaps Labour could stick her on the side of a bus?IanB2 said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand
Jennifer Arcuri: ‘I’ve kept Johnson’s secrets – now he’s cast me aside like a one-night stand’0 -
FPT - I'd take that Guardian John Harris walkabout in Guildford with a pinch of salt - his sympathies are far too obvious and he'll want to please his readers and highlight voters who think/act like he would - but I'd say that whilst the LDs will do well, and maybe even win, they don't look like they're going to knock it out the park.0
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Probably ZacMarqueeMark said:Mail on Sunday: somebody has stuck ten grand on Zac to hold Richmond.
Bold.0 -
No, it’s still a bottle neck, and so much of the benefit of reducing the Severn Tolls to zero stops ten miles further west in Newport because you join the queue at the Brynglas tunnels. Traffic is dreadful in rush hour and on a holiday Summer evening can essentially snake from the Severn Bridge (and sometimes gets caught up with Bristol traffic too and goes back to Jct 18 for Bath). Thanks Mark Drakeford, take a bow.Sandpit said:
Have they *still* not sorted out the Brynglas tunnels? They were a massive bottleneck two decades ago!ydoethur said:
Newport East is one that will I think trend Tory over time. A lot of Bristolians are moving into the M4 corridor in search of cheaper housing now the Severn Bridge tolls have been abolished. While normally these would be Labour voters, there will probably be a backlash over the decision not to extend the M48 across the Glamorgan levels to relieve the pressure on the M4 tunnels.Casino_Royale said:I backed the Tories in Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Bridgend yesterday.
I will look at Newport East this morning.
I would however be surprised if it fell on this occasion.0 -
Yes, of course, and many do. It's hard work though, you have to be disciplined as well as well-informed, and you need a fair bit of capital to invest.Dura_Ace said:O/T...
Does anybody think it's genuinely possible to make a living as a "professional" gambler? I recently encountered a voluble chancer on a car forum who claimed his main source of income was betting on EPL football. He's got a TVR so he obviously knows fuck all about cars but could he know enough about football to beat the bookies?
In other words, it's just like running your own business.2
