politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For how long can Johnson continue to defy gravity?
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Can you imagine if Leave or the Tories had done that? It would be a "lie" that means any election victory is"illegitimate". It would still be talked about and making rounds on Twitter years later.maaarsh said:I'm probably very late on this, but I've just seen that Labour's estimate of the annual cost of running the broadband network was based on taking a 30 year NPV and dividing by 30.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.0 -
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.CorrectHorseBattery said:
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.nico67 said:Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.0 -
You're quite right, my apologies. For some reason I had him confused with Nadhim Zahawi, one of the other founders of YouGov. That will teach me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Erhhh no. He is definitely a Labour supporter (or was in the Blair days, and is married to a Labour Peer).CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour supporting? Kellner was a Tory!FrancisUrquhart said:
Who is saying that? The only person I have seen talking about massive majority in the past few days is Labour supporting Peter Kellner.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7691905/Jeremy-Corbyn-face-landslide-election-defeat-says-pollster.html
We used to get some tin foil types back in the day claim that his leanings influenced his polling / predictions, until quite rightly people pointed out that his partner at YouGov Shakespeare was a Tory.
I have always thought this poll influence stuff is nonsense. YouGov (via MRP) and Survation were the only two to call 2017 right (within MOE).0 -
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash0 -
If you think ICM is wrong by their 2017 numbers, the current numbers are tied. That is how far out they were last time.edmundintokyo said:
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.JohnWheatley said:1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
Who knows, Survation got 2017 right but EU wrong.
Nobody knows. The only thing that seems to be consistent is the trend.0 -
Well then we shall just have to wait to see how a Johnson Government pans out. I think it will be polling historic lows within 12-24 months.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't agree. Optimism and confidence are absolutely vital in government. Governments that lose them soon lose.OllyT said:
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.timmo said:
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012.Foxy said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the northnichomar said:
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.Banterman said:
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.ThomastheCat said:How long can Boris defy gravity ?
Well Tony Blair managed 10-11 years.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades.
You underestimate him at your peril...
That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.0 -
Sure, but the fact that it's used for other countries doesn't alter the fact that it's dumb bureaucracy that costs employers and employees alike (less for big companies, which can handle it) and enriches rent-seeking middlemen.Charles said:This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.
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I would be amazed if the polling doesn't show it is much closer in two weeks time.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The briefings coming out are the Tories are confident of a large majority, the Sun and others are saying Corbyn is finished, etc.numbertwelve said:
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
It's not exactly the same as 2017 but there is arrogance around.
This election is all to play for. I won't make any certain predictions but I will say I was one of the few to call 2017 right and I got 4 to 1 on no overall majority.1 -
They are setting the agenda with ease. It just depends on how effectively. The LDs will also be furiousFrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash0 -
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Yep, it will be a bit of a killer for smaller businesses that need to make quick hires and do not have access to a lot of local talent. IT is an obvious area. But it will be across the board. We are being promised major infrastructure upgrades. But they are not just going to happen. They will have to be built. And we currently have full employment.edmundintokyo said:
Sure, but the fact that it's used for other countries doesn't alter the fact that it's dumb bureaucracy that costs employers and employees alike (less for big companies, which can handle it) and enriches rent-seeking middlemen.Charles said:This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.
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And we are soon to have our socks blown off by the Lab manifesto.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash0 -
If you think ICM is wrong by their 2017 numbers, the current numbers are tied. That is how far out they were last time.edmundintokyo said:
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.JohnWheatley said:1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
Who knows, Survation got 2017 right but EU wrong.
Nobody knows. The only thing that seems to be consistent is the trend.
I'm going to be impacted by thatralphmalph said:
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.CorrectHorseBattery said:
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.nico67 said:Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
The public are already well aware of strikes though - I know this is the longest in history apparently - but whenever this issue comes up it just seems to make the calls for nationalisation stronger.
Not sure it's a strong issue for the Tories, because they have to propose a solution to it. What can they do, propose banning striking? And won't that just get responses of caring more about the south again?
I wonder if they'll go for it, not sure it's a vote winner.
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Its a surplus on primary spending. The Lib Dems are having a very good campaign. The only serious platform so far.rottenborough said:0 -
Indeed and with the internet it's not hard to look for jobs in other countries if you're determined without an middle agent. And if middle agents are used they hopefully won't be used on minimum wage roles.Charles said:
This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.edmundintokyo said:
One problem is that employers and workers who would have been able to find each other just fine will now have to pay for the services of a parasitical rent-seeking middleman who will either deal with all the bureaucracy of job offer letters before arrival etc, or if this process is too slow and/or restrictive, hire the worker themselves, then farm them out to the actual employer.NorthCadboll said:I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
PS Overall immigration seems to be good for both immigrants and native workers, but I don't think what you say about advertising on UK job platforms proves there's no adverse effect on native workers because the job may have been fillable by a native with higher wages or better conditions.0 -
The correct answer is d) it is differentAnneJGP said:
I have seen it confidently asserted that:ThomastheCat said:
If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.
a) Mr Johnson's deal is exactly the same as Mrs May's deal;
b) Mr Johnson's deal is much worse for the UK than Mrs May's deal;
c) Mr Johnson's deal is much better for the UK than Mrs May's deal.
So what the deal is actually like seems to be an open question.
Essentially Mays deal effectively, for at least a period of time, kept the U.K. inside the single market and customs union. This reduces economic disruption at the cost of democratic accountability.
Whether this is better or worse depends on your own value judgements0 -
I don't see any evidence that there's a substantial market for a serious platform.Gabs3 said:
Its a surplus on primary spending. The Lib Dems are having a very good campaign. The only serious platform so far.1 -
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.1 -
I wonder if some brave soul will leak the Russia report0
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I think we could we seeing 38/32/16 scores coming out of more pollsters soon. Which interestingly is where I sort-of see us ending up at the actual vote.rottenborough said:
And we are soon to have our socks blown off by the Lab manifesto.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
Question then becomes whether that sort of result delivers a majority. Electoral Calculus' new model says no, but I think its possibly over-corrected some of its failings from its old model. I think a small majority would be delivered on such a result, but it will be down to what happens in the marginals.0 -
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.Arthur said:
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.0 -
Just wondered if anyone on the ground had anything to share?0
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I think this has jumped the shark for votersnumbertwelve said:It will be interesting to see if the broadband policy has any effect on the polls. It seems to have cut through, though I can't predict at this stage exactly what the impact is. Although there has been some polling (Yougov?) that suggests its popular, I think it could go one of two ways:
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
I can't accurately gauge the mood at the moment.
More money for health, education, whatever sounds like a good thing and it’s a bit remote from people’s day to day life so they don’t know how to judge
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility0 -
Jesus! Seriously? Who have they got advising McDonald?Gabs3 said:
Can you imagine if Leave or the Tories had done that? It would be a "lie" that means any election victory is"illegitimate". It would still be talked about and making rounds on Twitter years later.maaarsh said:I'm probably very late on this, but I've just seen that Labour's estimate of the annual cost of running the broadband network was based on taking a 30 year NPV and dividing by 30.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.0 -
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:0 -
"If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically."ThomastheCat said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around0 -
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.ralphmalph said:
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.CorrectHorseBattery said:
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.nico67 said:Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.0 -
The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).0 -
Word against word. I doubt even the Tories are stupid enough to put anything in writing.FrancisUrquhart said:Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7692491/Met-probes-electoral-fraud-claims-Tories-induced-Brexit-Party-candidates-stand-down.html
Case dropped as no realistic prospect of a conviction0 -
I think you are think of Stephen Shakespeare?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour supporting? Kellner was a Tory!FrancisUrquhart said:
Who is saying that? The only person I have seen talking about massive majority in the past few days is Labour supporting Peter Kellner.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7691905/Jeremy-Corbyn-face-landslide-election-defeat-says-pollster.html0 -
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:0 -
I think Corbyn's strategy in the debate should be to avoid discussing Brexit as much as is humanly possible. The more it becomes a Brexit debate, the more he stands to lose.CorrectHorseBattery said:The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
The natural response to "it doesn't deliver on what was voted for" is "you are not delivering on the result of the referendum." For Brexit leaning voters, the weakness is on the Labour side, not the Tory one.
Yes he can talk about NI and the technicalities of the deal, but to be honest a lot of voters don't go into the detail on Brexit, the mood music is that a vote for Boris means we leave, a vote for Corbyn throws that into doubt.0 -
Which he then failed to solve?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.ralphmalph said:
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.CorrectHorseBattery said:
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.nico67 said:Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.0 -
The Tory campaign so far has been appalling. You can see what the tactic is: heads down, count the days and let The Sun and The Mail demonize Corbyn. But this presumption - that a Tory majority is the default position - is both arrogant and moronic. Boris's only selling point is that he's a winner whereas Theresa was a loser, but so far he's done absolutely nothing to persuade any normal person of this. If we get another hung parliament he will be destroyed. His and the Tories' laziness baffles me.1
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Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.0 -
"OllyT said:
"If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.ThomastheCat said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
It's a pity that remainers can't accept that their oh so confident (and so often repeated and retweeted) predictions that the EU would not renegotiate, and that even if they wanted to there was not time, were just flat out wrong. It betrays weakness of character.
We can only imagine how much better a deal Boris could have achieved had the EU been faced with the prospect of a no deal outcome.0 -
I got it wrong. Sorry.Charles said:
I think you are think of Stephen Shakespeare?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour supporting? Kellner was a Tory!FrancisUrquhart said:
Who is saying that? The only person I have seen talking about massive majority in the past few days is Labour supporting Peter Kellner.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7691905/Jeremy-Corbyn-face-landslide-election-defeat-says-pollster.html0 -
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Although 2017 comparisons are wearing thin somewhat, there is a similarity at present in how each party has approached the campaign. I hope the Tories have learned their lesson and in the closing weeks actually turn up to fight. The risk is we get to three or so weeks out, they announce some policies and like the social care one the media jump all over it and create a negative narrative that persists all the way through to polling day.Stark_Dawning said:The Tory campaign so far has been appalling. You can see what the tactic is: heads down, count the days and let The Sun and The Mail demonize Corbyn. But this presumption - that a Tory majority is the default position - is both arrogant and moronic. Boris's only selling point is that he's a winner whereas Theresa was a loser, but so far he's done absolutely nothing to persuade any normal person of this. If we get another hung parliament he will be destroyed. His and the Tories' laziness baffles me.
Whoever is coming up with the Tory manifesto, I hope they're running it under the microscope six or seven times before it sees the light of day.1 -
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.0 -
It's a very sad reflection on our electoral system when that's all the choice we get. The rallying cry of both the old duopoly seems to be were not as bad as the other lot. Stirring stuff indeededmundintokyo said:
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.JohnWheatley said:1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
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A free pony for all?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1195691890080976896
What could it be?0 -
Times has their policy earlier this morning. No benefits for EU citizens for 5 years.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.Arthur said:
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.0 -
The Preimiership would not be the league it is without the money invested in it by billionaires.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11954494983586816060 -
No need to apologiseCorrectHorseBattery said:
I got it wrong. Sorry.Charles said:
I think you are think of Stephen Shakespeare?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour supporting? Kellner was a Tory!FrancisUrquhart said:
Who is saying that? The only person I have seen talking about massive majority in the past few days is Labour supporting Peter Kellner.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7691905/Jeremy-Corbyn-face-landslide-election-defeat-says-pollster.html
OGH is sensitive to attacks on pollsters integrity though0 -
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.0 -
Free stuff. What else.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1195691890080976896
What could it be?0 -
And why it is the most commercially successful league worldwide. No matter which country you go to, pretty much every EPL match is available.nunu2 said:The Preimiership would not be the club it is without the money invested in it by billionaires.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11954494983586816061 -
The first 30mins are dedicated to Brexit.numbertwelve said:
I think Corbyn's strategy in the debate should be to avoid discussing Brexit as much as is humanly possible. The more it becomes a Brexit debate, the more he stands to lose.CorrectHorseBattery said:The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
The natural response to "it doesn't deliver on what was voted for" is "you are not delivering on the result of the referendum." For Brexit leaning voters, the weakness is on the Labour side, not the Tory one.
Yes he can talk about NI and the technicalities of the deal, but to be honest a lot of voters don't go into the detail on Brexit, the mood music is that a vote for Boris means we leave, a vote for Corbyn throws that into doubt.0 -
Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.0
-
ZAP!!!!!!!!!!0
-
Socialism is a lie and doesn't workCorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.0 -
Interesting stat I was told last night....
If you're under the age of 74 you have never voted in an election in which the Labour Party has won a working majority, other than when it was led to Tony Blair.0 -
Which is literally already possible.ThomastheCat said:
Times has their policy earlier this morning. No benefits for EU citizens for 5 years.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.Arthur said:
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.
But FOM will continue for at least some workers.0 -
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.Charles said:
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.0 -
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.ozymandias said:
Socialism is a lie and doesn't workCorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.0 -
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore0 -
Well not quite actually true. People think Corbyn is much, much worse than Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
So increase your astonishment.0 -
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.0 -
And I'd like to understand how this can be true.ozymandias said:
Well not quite actually true. People think Corbyn is much, much worse than Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
So increase your astonishment.0 -
That's not enough. Tories should be promising a points based system for all immigrants. E.u or notThomastheCat said:
Times has their policy earlier this morning. No benefits for EU citizens for 5 years.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.Arthur said:
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.FrancisUrquhart said:
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.rottenborough said:Pidcock could lose her seat?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.0 -
The Johnson deal was what May negotiated then got shelved when the DUP said no.
He dropped his red line on a border in the Irish Sea and the EU re-negotiated. Anyone who actually followed the process knows this was always going to happen.0 -
They dont though.CorrectHorseBattery said:Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
Corbyn is seen as much much worse0 -
Outside the U.K., you can even go into a bar a couple of hours from now and find them all showing at the same time.FrancisUrquhart said:
And why it is the most commercially successful league worldwide. No matter which country you go to, pretty much every EPL match is available.nunu2 said:The Preimiership would not be the club it is without the money invested in it by billionaires.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11954494983586816060 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
If the debates drift on to Brexit then it will play to Boris's advantage I think. He is offering a clear end (yes, I know) in the eyes of voters fatigued with the whole process.
I have doubts that Corbyn's offer of further national angst; months of renegotiation with the EU, further months of wrangling about the framing of the question, months of incredibly bitter campaigning followed by millions of voters potentially feeling cheated...is going to be a popular one.
0 -
It's not attacks on rail strikes, just that it drives pissed-off commuters to the polls. Will they blame the unions, management or government?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Which he then failed to solve?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.ralphmalph said:
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.CorrectHorseBattery said:
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.nico67 said:Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.0 -
Because Corbyn is an intellectually challenged, lazy, mendacious, hypocritical, ignorant piece of unreconstructed Marxist excrement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
And I'd like to understand how this can be true.ozymandias said:
Well not quite actually true. People think Corbyn is much, much worse than Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
So increase your astonishment.
Have I missed anything?0 -
What an utterly stupid way to look at anything.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.ozymandias said:
Socialism is a lie and doesn't workCorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.0 -
Polls seem to suggest they favour nationalisation, so presumably the Government?DecrepiterJohnL said:
It's not attacks on rail strikes, just that it drives pissed-off commuters to the polls. Will they blame the unions, management or government?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Which he then failed to solve?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.ralphmalph said:
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.CorrectHorseBattery said:
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.nico67 said:Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.0 -
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.OllyT said:
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.0 -
I used to think that voters made rational choices to select that politician/party that would make their lives better. Now I think it's more complicated, and under certain circumstances they vote to select that politician/party that would make other people's lives worse. I won't detain you with the Terry Pratchett quote, but people are not necessarily nice.Benpointer said:
Really? I wonder how many people will actually think this is going to help their lives one iota.Stocky said:"EU migrants who come to the UK after Brexit will be barred from claiming benefits for five years under plans to end free movement expected to be announced in the Tory manifesto."
Wow - this is going to be really popular.0 -
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can end up, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?0 -
Have you lived in the UK for the last 9 years? Life hasn't improved for regular people at all.Sandpit said:
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can go, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.0 -
Deltapoll coming out later with constituency polling.
https://mobile.twitter.com/martinboon/status/11956659633346764800 -
Whatever it is i'm pretty sure nursery school children, and kids who haven't yet been born, will be paying the bill well in to their working lives.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1195691890080976896
What could it be?0 -
The NI politicians are still saying they don't like it.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.OllyT said:
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.0 -
I thought the original EU proposal was NI stays in the EU customs union and leaves the UK one. With Boris deal NI is in both.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.OllyT said:
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.0 -
Well we're moving closer to the USA model and it's so far been a disaster. So yes I will stick with what I say thanks.Luckyguy1983 said:
What an utterly stupid way to look at anything.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.ozymandias said:
Socialism is a lie and doesn't workCorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.0 -
May didn't ask. Boris did.Stark_Dawning said:
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
May had the wrong priority.0 -
I don't see a strong Labour campaign. If anything, the polling seems to be trending towards the Conservatives.rottenborough said:
I would be amazed if the polling doesn't show it is much closer in two weeks time.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The briefings coming out are the Tories are confident of a large majority, the Sun and others are saying Corbyn is finished, etc.numbertwelve said:
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
It's not exactly the same as 2017 but there is arrogance around.
This election is all to play for. I won't make any certain predictions but I will say I was one of the few to call 2017 right and I got 4 to 1 on no overall majority.0 -
Free broadband seems like a policy sketched out on the back of a beermat but it does seem to have spooked CCHQ. The trouble with saying it should be left to the market is that many voters will be thinking the market has not done a very good job so far.SunnyJim said:
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.Charles said:
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
ETA: rather like the Conservatives' p0rn filter, it does seem to have been dreamt up by someone not wholly au fait with the technicalities.0 -
The Norway model relies on pumping lots of oil out of the sea-bed and selling it. It's where they get their Owl money from.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well we're moving closer to the USA model and it's so far been a disaster. So yes I will stick with what I say thanks.Luckyguy1983 said:
What an utterly stupid way to look at anything.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.ozymandias said:
Socialism is a lie and doesn't workCorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
So presumably you disagree with Labour's environmental policy of reducing reliance on fossil fuels and becoming "Carbon Free".
Interesting.0 -
Their response should have been an alternative broadband offer via investment, etc. but instead they just shouted "muh Communism" which is very odd as I was assured Cummings and co were strategic geniuses.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Free broadband seems like a policy sketched out on the back of a beermat but it does seem to have spooked CCHQ. The trouble with saying it should be left to the market is that many voters will be thinking the market has not done a very good job so far.SunnyJim said:
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.Charles said:
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.0 -
As far as I can tell, the Conservatives are nervous, not complacent.numbertwelve said:
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.CorrectHorseBattery said:The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.0 -
I'm surprised the Conservatives haven't trailed a re-direction of some of the £14.5bn overseas aid budget towards domestic priorities.
It would be hugely popular in Midlands/NW/NE.0 -
Maybe if we weren’t paying £40bn a year in interest to the evil bankers who lent the almost bankrupt government money, there would be more to go around for everybody else?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Have you lived in the UK for the last 9 years? Life hasn't improved for regular people at all.Sandpit said:
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can go, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.
Government spending has gone *up* every year since 2010, the only difference is that more and more of it is being paid in debt interest rather than on schools and hospitals.0 -
May didn't ask because it's what the EU offered her originally. She turned it down because the DUP said no.Philip_Thompson said:
May didn't ask. Boris did.Stark_Dawning said:
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
May had the wrong priority.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.0 -
Wouldn't it be good if that was in the yet-to-be-released-no-one-knows-what-might-be-in-it manifesto?SunnyJim said:I'm surprised the Conservatives haven't trailed a re-direction of some of the £14.5bn overseas aid budget towards domestic priorities.
It would be hugely popular in Midlands/NW/NE.
0 -
Considering how bankrupt the country was "not improved" is a mammoth achievement while eliminating Labour's deficitCorrectHorseBattery said:
Have you lived in the UK for the last 9 years? Life hasn't improved for regular people at all.Sandpit said:
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.CorrectHorseBattery said:
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.Sandpit said:
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.Stereotomy said:
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?Sandpit said:
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.rottenborough said:
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can go, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.
Go to Venezuela, Bolivia or even Greece and see how much life has gotten worse when Corbynite or Corbyn lite policies have been followed.1 -
I am not suggesting that all is rosy in the broadband world but generally speaking its available for most and relatively inexpensive. Yes there are arguments about the rollout of fibre but and I'd quite happily admit that there are problems particularly in rural areas, and have been for yonks, but I don't think many people would list their broadband provision as one of their top concerns.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Free broadband seems like a policy sketched out on the back of a beermat but it does seem to have spooked CCHQ. The trouble with saying it should be left to the market is that many voters will be thinking the market has not done a very good job so far.SunnyJim said:
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.Charles said:
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
EDIT: besides, there's an argument that as mobile data becomes more and more advanced the wired internet service is going to become more and more obsolete.0 -
Yes, Theresa didn't ask because she thought it was so stupid that she'd never be able to live with herself and the Tory party would never forgive her. Boris was more astute in that sense - he knew that the Tories would turn on a sixpence once he'd manipulated their shared conscious to be primarily concerned with the advancement of his career.CorrectHorseBattery said:
May didn't ask because it's what the EU offered her originally. She turned it down because the DUP said no.Philip_Thompson said:
May didn't ask. Boris did.Stark_Dawning said:
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
May had the wrong priority.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.0 -
"Laziness": only one out of Johnson and Corbyn has called someone a "girly swot" for wanting MPs to do some work in the month of September.ozymandias said:
Because Corbyn is an intellectually challenged, lazy, mendacious, hypocritical, ignorant piece of unreconstructed Marxist excrement.CorrectHorseBattery said:
And I'd like to understand how this can be true.ozymandias said:
Well not quite actually true. People think Corbyn is much, much worse than Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
So increase your astonishment.
Have I missed anything?
"Mendacity": only one of them has repeatedly been sacked by employers for dishonesty. Not very many people have that kind of record, but the present prime minister does.
"Hypocrisy": if Tories think free-at-the-point-of-use broadband is "communist", why not say the same about NHS maternity care? And if getting stuff for free is a bad idea, and if the rich are rich because they're intelligent, then why not raise IHT to 90% on larger estates?0 -
Then they can end the arrangements in Stormont if that's what a majority of NI voters and their politicians think. Job done.Stark_Dawning said:
The NI politicians are still saying they don't like it.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.OllyT said:
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.0 -
Our roads are Communist0
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Indeed. Another big difference.ralphmalph said:
I thought the original EU proposal was NI stays in the EU customs union and leaves the UK one. With Boris deal NI is in both.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.OllyT said:
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
0 -
Just look at the leader satisfaction surveysnunu2 said:
They dont though.CorrectHorseBattery said:Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
Corbyn is seen as much much worse0 -
My point is that the deal isn't new.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Theresa didn't ask because she thought it was so stupid that she'd never be able to live with herself and the Tory party would never forgive her. Boris was more astute in that sense - he knew that the Tories would turn on a sixpence once he'd manipulated their shared conscious to be primarily concerned with the advancement of his career.CorrectHorseBattery said:
May didn't ask because it's what the EU offered her originally. She turned it down because the DUP said no.Philip_Thompson said:
May didn't ask. Boris did.Stark_Dawning said:
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
May had the wrong priority.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.
It will unravel when it turns out it's not what people thought they were voting for - not that anyone actually knows.0 -
Is that the same Stormont that hasn’t sat for over three years then?Philip_Thompson said:
Then they can end the arrangements in Stormont if that's what a majority of NI voters and their politicians think. Job done.Stark_Dawning said:
The NI politicians are still saying they don't like it.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.OllyT said:
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?OllyT said:
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
If no this is not the same deal.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.0 -
Actually it's quite simple.
Homeless are the few. Those in "Poverty" are the few.
Corbyn's for the Many.
Ah, the logic of socialists.0 -
So Jezza is an admirer of the Bundesliga. A league which is won by the same team every season.0
