I wonder if all the young people that have registered to vote will actually bother. It seems like this happens every time and they sit at home.
There was some talk around the time that the election was called that a December election could dampen turnout amongst older voters. I always thought that was a bit of a strange assertion. In my experience the older you are the more likely you are to consider voting as your civic duty, and a little bit of dark and cold and rain won't stop them from duly trooping to the polling stations (or for those too infirm, voting by post).
If the end of the world was upon us on polling day and fire and brimstone was raining down from the skies, you'd still expect the elderly to turn up to vote.
The question is whether the winter election will dampen YOUTH turnout.
Yep, if you believe a December election will have any affect, the most likely outcome is it will result in a more elderly, middle-class, postal-vote heavy ballot.
That being said, for the last few elections people have been arguing that turnout will be lower and it has exceeded expectations.
Because steel, railways and Royal Mail are mainly one-offs. If Labour wins would BT become a Monopoly and should people who work for the Broadband section of SKY, Virgin Media and other companies start looking for a new job or position? Also, will there be a drop in investment for all these companies?
I expect that if Labour win the general election a whole load of companies will tear up their existing plans, and do as little work as they are contractually required to do. Which would be a real shame as between them Openreach, Virgin Media, and Cityfibre are now well on track to deliver high-speed broaband to most of the population before Labour's 2030 target. The existing government schemes should pay for the rest of the population. I genuinely believe that Labour could end up delaying the rollout of FTTC/FTTP rather than speeding things up.
Didn't McDonnell say they could nationalise all of the 200 odd broadband providers if necessary? They really are quite mad, and it proves conclusively how few of them know a single thing about private business, wealth creation and employment. The figure of 1.2 trillion extra in debt is a substantial shortfall of the real figure.
In fairness, I disagree there. I think the real constraint on a Corbyn government is that after Greece and Venezuela nobody would lend to them. So they would have to balance the books immediately to avoid borrowing.
The severe damage this would cause is one reason I’m so opposed to them getting into Government. But it would be very funny as well.
At the same time, it does mean no extra debt.
You have a point about financial institutions not lending to them. Here's a scenario to put to the Corbynistas here - would any of them lend to his government?
Do you expect a noticeable withdrawal from Premium Bonds in the event of a Corbyn government.
There always the pension funds to nationalise. A few quid there to pinch.
Do we think polling firms have become better at single constituency polls? I seem to remember they were really shit last time. The Reading W poll has got me thinking though. My model shows Labour gaining it, based on Labour doing better in the SE than the rest of the country I think. But from descriptions of the constituency on here it sounds like its demographic profile is more like the Midlands than the Home Counties, so perhaps this is a seat where something like MRP will do a better job. I am very willing to believe my model is wrong on this seat. But presumably it means Labour is doing better somewhere else?
Reading West is almost 50/50 Remain/Leave. If the polls are right, it should have swung to Remain by now.
On the fire, the alarm system also seems to have nearly caused it to be much worse as multiple false alarms made many students ignore the real thing to start with.
When I was a student the Halls of Residence had false alarms every other week due to people burning food etc. People would stay in their room and ignore the alarm half the time.
If you burn your food at home and the alarm goes off you know what it is. When any single resident causes the entire buildings alarm to go off it's going to be an issue ... not one I imagine with an easy solution.
What is the general view here on the polls? Do you believe them? Do you think the gap is wider or smaller in reality?
I find it very difficult to tell. Pollsters have not had the best of records, in general, recently. 2015 was off. 2017 was off (the other way).
In theory, the pollsters should have made adjustments to factor in the issues they encountered in the election before. That's one reason, in my mind, why the polls in 2017 might have underestimated the Labour vote - because they were working off a model that tried to over-compensate for the 2015 result.
This time, its even more difficult to tell given the rapid shifts in party allegiance we've seen over the past couple of years (the surges in Labour and Brexit Party support followed by the collapses, and the recovery of the Lib Dems). It would be a brave person who said they thought they were spot on the money this time around.
On the fire, the alarm system also seems to have nearly caused it to be much worse as multiple false alarms made many students ignore the real thing to start with.
When I was a student the Halls of Residence had false alarms every other week due to people burning food etc. People would stay in their room and ignore the alarm half the time.
If you burn your food at home and the alarm goes off you know what it is. When any single resident causes the entire buildings alarm to go off it's going to be an issue ... not one I imagine with an easy solution.
Mr Philip. What you’re forgetting is that under Labour no one will burn their food.
On the fire, the alarm system also seems to have nearly caused it to be much worse as multiple false alarms made many students ignore the real thing to start with.
As a student our fire alarm was always going off.
Toast. It was always toast.
Tosters are banned in our staff room kitchen after two fire alarms caused by teachers wandering off and forgetting their toast. At least you don’t have to worry about the enthusiasm with which most pupils will escape from a class room.
Speak for yourself, mine want to stay in lessons!
Mine don’t, unless it’s raining...
Hang on, you teach in Wales.
Do I? That's sudden. I never knew South Staffordshire was in Wales. Indeed, I even thought our MP was so unWelsh, despite his name, that he was in charge of the English education system...
You must just be a better teacher then.☹️
If I say I teach a more interesting subject, will that make me unpopular?
Thing is, after we get past Einstein there are just no decent sex maniacs in Physics.
Edit: I’ll concede the interesting, when it’s taught well.
To be serious for a moment (for once) one of my great regrets is I didn’t do Physics A-level. I enjoyed the subject and I was always very good at it.
It’s therefore quite fun to currently be looking after the Physics department during a spate of illnesses and absences. Equally, it’s hard old going finding cover!
Do we think polling firms have become better at single constituency polls? I seem to remember they were really shit last time. The Reading W poll has got me thinking though. My model shows Labour gaining it, based on Labour doing better in the SE than the rest of the country I think. But from descriptions of the constituency on here it sounds like its demographic profile is more like the Midlands than the Home Counties, so perhaps this is a seat where something like MRP will do a better job. I am very willing to believe my model is wrong on this seat. But presumably it means Labour is doing better somewhere else?
Reading West is almost 50/50 Remain/Leave. If the polls are right, it should have swung to Remain by now.
>Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG Research, said: “With Labour’s poll rating improving slightly over the last few months, so too have perceptions of Corbyn’s own performance. This is not to say that the Labour leader should now be considered a popular leader, but he has recovered from a low of -48 per cent in July, rising to -36 per cent in this poll. That being said, the Labour leader remains significantly less popular now than he was one month out from the 2017 election where we recorded his net satisfaction at -17 per cent.”
Hmm
That was the BMG poll from 5th/6th November wasn't it?
Do we think polling firms have become better at single constituency polls? I seem to remember they were really shit last time. The Reading W poll has got me thinking though. My model shows Labour gaining it, based on Labour doing better in the SE than the rest of the country I think. But from descriptions of the constituency on here it sounds like its demographic profile is more like the Midlands than the Home Counties, so perhaps this is a seat where something like MRP will do a better job. I am very willing to believe my model is wrong on this seat. But presumably it means Labour is doing better somewhere else?
For Reading West my model has Con/Lab/LD/BXP as 50/33/14/0
MRP has 37/28/22/8
Clear Tory hold.
If LAB win Reading W Corbyn can install his own broadband in No 10 without the help of any other parties!
It won't stop Labour attributing blame to the government, though. Let's not pretend they won't use this to try and score points.
I’m sorry but the Government IS to blame.
Grenfell was over 2 years ago and the Government has done absolutely nothing to force landlords and building owners to make them safe.
It’s an utter disgrace.
The Government is paying for it to happen. The problem is that - and I am not sure why anyone is surprised by this - there are not enough firms to actually do all the work. You don't just magic people out of the air to do this and every firm involved in cladding is already working at capacity and has been for the last 2 years. If you try to prosecute someone for not having got it done yet when there is no one to do the work you would get laughed out of court.
Since the Government are already paying the costs I don't really see what else they can do. As of May 1/3rd of all the buildings identified had been stripped of their cladding.
Of course that won't stop idiotic politicians trying to make political capital out of it.
Just had an interesting chat with a mate who is heavily involved in telecoms industry. It is horrendously complex. Openreach is the last mile provider. What is going to happen about the backbone stuff?
I've no idea what Labour plan there, but that's one area where there really isn't a problem. The last mile is the issue, and it's a far more complicated issue that just cost. It is issues like planning, other utilities, councils, and land owners that make deployment difficult, as they also do with mobile networks.
>Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG Research, said: “With Labour’s poll rating improving slightly over the last few months, so too have perceptions of Corbyn’s own performance. This is not to say that the Labour leader should now be considered a popular leader, but he has recovered from a low of -48 per cent in July, rising to -36 per cent in this poll. That being said, the Labour leader remains significantly less popular now than he was one month out from the 2017 election where we recorded his net satisfaction at -17 per cent.”
Hmm
That was the BMG poll from 5th/6th November wasn't it?
It's a bit odd, the article is written as if it's a new poll but it seems to contradict itself throughout.
That's why I posted it, it seems a bit odd.
But regardless, a week ago, there were signs of improvement in Corbyn's numbers. Small signs.
On the fire, the alarm system also seems to have nearly caused it to be much worse as multiple false alarms made many students ignore the real thing to start with.
As a student our fire alarm was always going off.
Toast. It was always toast.
Tosters are banned in our staff room kitchen after two fire alarms caused by teachers wandering off and forgetting their toast. At least you don’t have to worry about the enthusiasm with which most pupils will escape from a class room.
Speak for yourself, mine want to stay in lessons!
Mine don’t, unless it’s raining...
Hang on, you teach in Wales.
Do I? That's sudden. I never knew South Staffordshire was in Wales. Indeed, I even thought our MP was so unWelsh, despite his name, that he was in charge of the English education system...
You must just be a better teacher then.☹️
If I say I teach a more interesting subject, will that make me unpopular?
Thing is, after we get past Einstein there are just no decent sex maniacs in Physics.
Edit: I’ll concede the interesting, when it’s taught well.
To be serious for a moment (for once) one of my great regrets is I didn’t do Physics A-level. I enjoyed the subject and I was always very good at it.
It’s therefore quite fun to currently be looking after the Physics department during a spate of illnesses and absences. Equally, it’s hard old going finding cover!
I am causing a fair bit of angst myself, as I’m going to be off for about two more weeka.
It won't stop Labour attributing blame to the government, though. Let's not pretend they won't use this to try and score points.
I’m sorry but the Government IS to blame.
Grenfell was over 2 years ago and the Government has done absolutely nothing to force landlords and building owners to make them safe.
It’s an utter disgrace.
The Government is paying for it to happen. The problem is that - and I am not sure why anyone is surprised by this - there are not enough firms to actually do all the work. You don't just magic people out of the air to do this and every firm involved in cladding is already working at capacity and has been for the last 2 years. If you try to prosecute someone for not having got it done yet when there is no one to do the work you would get laughed out of court.
Since the Government are already paying the costs I don't really see what else they can do. As of May 1/3rd of all the buildings identified had been stripped of their cladding.
Of course that won't stop idiotic politicians trying to make political capital out of it.
David Schneider has already made a twat out of himself over it.
It won't stop Labour attributing blame to the government, though. Let's not pretend they won't use this to try and score points.
I’m sorry but the Government IS to blame.
Grenfell was over 2 years ago and the Government has done absolutely nothing to force landlords and building owners to make them safe.
It’s an utter disgrace.
The Government is paying for it to happen. The problem is that - and I am not sure why anyone is surprised by this - there are not enough firms to actually do all the work. You don't just magic people out of the air to do this and every firm involved in cladding is already working at capacity and has been for the last 2 years. If you try to prosecute someone for not having got it done yet when there is no one to do the work you would get laughed out of court.
Since the Government are already paying the costs I don't really see what else they can do. As of May 1/3rd of all the buildings identified had been stripped of their cladding.
Of course that won't stop idiotic politicians trying to make political capital out of it.
Or people* here, who appear to be experts on everything, ever.
At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.
Which seat are you in?
North East Hants. It's incredibly safe but apart from 2017, Lib Dems have always come second here. Doing my bit I guess.
Poshest seat in the country if I remember correctly. I think I visited it once in order to see Jane Austen's house.
That's Hampshire East, Damien Hinds.
North-East Hampshire is Ranil Jayawardena.
I currently own houses in both :-)
Will you be voting in the Conservative safe seat of North East Hampshire (majority 27,772), or in the relatively hyper-marginal of East Hampshire (majority a mere 25,852)?
The BBC have a story about riots in Iran caused by petrol rationing and a reduction in the subsidies. Is this an indication that, world wide, the reduction in carbon use needed is going to be very painful, particularly if done too fast?
The BBC have a story about riots in Iran caused by petrol rationing and a reduction in the subsidies. Is this an indication that, world wide, the reduction in carbon use needed is going to be very painful, particularly if done too fast?
It may say more about the pain of Trump’s policies, but I agree with your point.
I think western Governments have to hit the “sweet spot” of meaningful change, but chance the public will accept. There is no point in coming to power and trying more, because of the backlash at the next election. The role of good campaigners (e.g. not Greta and co) will be time nudge the public to accept a touch more change than they otherwise would.
That said it’s a bit easier in countries like the U.K. where a decent nuclear/renewables mix and money spent on electric infrastructure for cars should get us most of the way with limited pain.
Comments
That being said, for the last few elections people have been arguing that turnout will be lower and it has exceeded expectations.
If you burn your food at home and the alarm goes off you know what it is. When any single resident causes the entire buildings alarm to go off it's going to be an issue ... not one I imagine with an easy solution.
Possibly 8% 10% maybe 12% tonight. Depends how people's broadband is working!
In theory, the pollsters should have made adjustments to factor in the issues they encountered in the election before. That's one reason, in my mind, why the polls in 2017 might have underestimated the Labour vote - because they were working off a model that tried to over-compensate for the 2015 result.
This time, its even more difficult to tell given the rapid shifts in party allegiance we've seen over the past couple of years (the surges in Labour and Brexit Party support followed by the collapses, and the recovery of the Lib Dems). It would be a brave person who said they thought they were spot on the money this time around.
It’s therefore quite fun to currently be looking after the Physics department during a spate of illnesses and absences. Equally, it’s hard old going finding cover!
My model Con/Lab/LD/BXP 39/38/14/6
MRP 33/28/22/7
Since the Government are already paying the costs I don't really see what else they can do. As of May 1/3rd of all the buildings identified had been stripped of their cladding.
Of course that won't stop idiotic politicians trying to make political capital out of it.
That's why I posted it, it seems a bit odd.
But regardless, a week ago, there were signs of improvement in Corbyn's numbers. Small signs.
But, no change there.
But numbers for all four parties are identical to previous poll dated 5-8 Nov.
Doesn't make any sense.
North-East Hampshire is Ranil Jayawardena.
I currently own houses in both :-)
Yes it's East Hants, sorry!
*some.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50444429
I think western Governments have to hit the “sweet spot” of meaningful change, but chance the public will accept. There is no point in coming to power and trying more, because of the backlash at the next election. The role of good campaigners (e.g. not Greta and co) will be time nudge the public to accept a touch more change than they otherwise would.
That said it’s a bit easier in countries like the U.K. where a decent nuclear/renewables mix and money spent on electric infrastructure for cars should get us most of the way with limited pain.
P.S. I’m not giving up my open fireplace
Dismissed as irrelevant by a focus group.
23322 CON 47%
15576 LAB 31%
7122 LD 14%
1656 BXP 3%
2101 Green 4%