I'm probably very late on this, but I've just seen that Labour's estimate of the annual cost of running the broadband network was based on taking a 30 year NPV and dividing by 30.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.
Can you imagine if Leave or the Tories had done that? It would be a "lie" that means any election victory is"illegitimate". It would still be talked about and making rounds on Twitter years later.
Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.
Erhhh no. He is definitely a Labour supporter (or was in the Blair days, and is married to a Labour Peer).
We used to get some tin foil types back in the day claim that his leanings influenced his polling / predictions, until quite rightly people pointed out that his partner at YouGov Shakespeare was a Tory.
You're quite right, my apologies. For some reason I had him confused with Nadhim Zahawi, one of the other founders of YouGov. That will teach me.
I have always thought this poll influence stuff is nonsense. YouGov (via MRP) and Survation were the only two to call 2017 right (within MOE).
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
If you think ICM is wrong by their 2017 numbers, the current numbers are tied. That is how far out they were last time.
Who knows, Survation got 2017 right but EU wrong.
Nobody knows. The only thing that seems to be consistent is the trend.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
I don't agree. Optimism and confidence are absolutely vital in government. Governments that lose them soon lose.
Well then we shall just have to wait to see how a Johnson Government pans out. I think it will be polling historic lows within 12-24 months.
This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.
Sure, but the fact that it's used for other countries doesn't alter the fact that it's dumb bureaucracy that costs employers and employees alike (less for big companies, which can handle it) and enriches rent-seeking middlemen.
The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
The briefings coming out are the Tories are confident of a large majority, the Sun and others are saying Corbyn is finished, etc.
It's not exactly the same as 2017 but there is arrogance around.
This election is all to play for. I won't make any certain predictions but I will say I was one of the few to call 2017 right and I got 4 to 1 on no overall majority.
I would be amazed if the polling doesn't show it is much closer in two weeks time.
This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.
Sure, but the fact that it's used for other countries doesn't alter the fact that it's dumb bureaucracy that costs employers and employees alike (less for big companies, which can handle it) and enriches rent-seeking middlemen.
Yep, it will be a bit of a killer for smaller businesses that need to make quick hires and do not have access to a lot of local talent. IT is an obvious area. But it will be across the board. We are being promised major infrastructure upgrades. But they are not just going to happen. They will have to be built. And we currently have full employment.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
If you think ICM is wrong by their 2017 numbers, the current numbers are tied. That is how far out they were last time.
Who knows, Survation got 2017 right but EU wrong.
Nobody knows. The only thing that seems to be consistent is the trend.
Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.
I'm going to be impacted by that
The public are already well aware of strikes though - I know this is the longest in history apparently - but whenever this issue comes up it just seems to make the calls for nationalisation stronger.
Not sure it's a strong issue for the Tories, because they have to propose a solution to it. What can they do, propose banning striking? And won't that just get responses of caring more about the south again?
I wonder if they'll go for it, not sure it's a vote winner.
I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
One problem is that employers and workers who would have been able to find each other just fine will now have to pay for the services of a parasitical rent-seeking middleman who will either deal with all the bureaucracy of job offer letters before arrival etc, or if this process is too slow and/or restrictive, hire the worker themselves, then farm them out to the actual employer.
PS Overall immigration seems to be good for both immigrants and native workers, but I don't think what you say about advertising on UK job platforms proves there's no adverse effect on native workers because the job may have been fillable by a native with higher wages or better conditions.
This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.
Indeed and with the internet it's not hard to look for jobs in other countries if you're determined without an middle agent. And if middle agents are used they hopefully won't be used on minimum wage roles.
If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.
I have seen it confidently asserted that: a) Mr Johnson's deal is exactly the same as Mrs May's deal; b) Mr Johnson's deal is much worse for the UK than Mrs May's deal; c) Mr Johnson's deal is much better for the UK than Mrs May's deal.
So what the deal is actually like seems to be an open question.
The correct answer is d) it is different
Essentially Mays deal effectively, for at least a period of time, kept the U.K. inside the single market and customs union. This reduces economic disruption at the cost of democratic accountability.
Whether this is better or worse depends on your own value judgements
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.
And we are soon to have our socks blown off by the Lab manifesto.
I think we could we seeing 38/32/16 scores coming out of more pollsters soon. Which interestingly is where I sort-of see us ending up at the actual vote.
Question then becomes whether that sort of result delivers a majority. Electoral Calculus' new model says no, but I think its possibly over-corrected some of its failings from its old model. I think a small majority would be delivered on such a result, but it will be down to what happens in the marginals.
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.
It will be interesting to see if the broadband policy has any effect on the polls. It seems to have cut through, though I can't predict at this stage exactly what the impact is. Although there has been some polling (Yougov?) that suggests its popular, I think it could go one of two ways:
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
I can't accurately gauge the mood at the moment.
I think this has jumped the shark for voters
More money for health, education, whatever sounds like a good thing and it’s a bit remote from people’s day to day life so they don’t know how to judge
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I'm probably very late on this, but I've just seen that Labour's estimate of the annual cost of running the broadband network was based on taking a 30 year NPV and dividing by 30.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.
Can you imagine if Leave or the Tories had done that? It would be a "lie" that means any election victory is"illegitimate". It would still be talked about and making rounds on Twitter years later.
Jesus! Seriously? Who have they got advising McDonald?
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
"If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically."
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.
The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
I think Corbyn's strategy in the debate should be to avoid discussing Brexit as much as is humanly possible. The more it becomes a Brexit debate, the more he stands to lose.
The natural response to "it doesn't deliver on what was voted for" is "you are not delivering on the result of the referendum." For Brexit leaning voters, the weakness is on the Labour side, not the Tory one.
Yes he can talk about NI and the technicalities of the deal, but to be honest a lot of voters don't go into the detail on Brexit, the mood music is that a vote for Boris means we leave, a vote for Corbyn throws that into doubt.
Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.
Which he then failed to solve?
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.
The Tory campaign so far has been appalling. You can see what the tactic is: heads down, count the days and let The Sun and The Mail demonize Corbyn. But this presumption - that a Tory majority is the default position - is both arrogant and moronic. Boris's only selling point is that he's a winner whereas Theresa was a loser, but so far he's done absolutely nothing to persuade any normal person of this. If we get another hung parliament he will be destroyed. His and the Tories' laziness baffles me.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
"If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.
"
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
It's a pity that remainers can't accept that their oh so confident (and so often repeated and retweeted) predictions that the EU would not renegotiate, and that even if they wanted to there was not time, were just flat out wrong. It betrays weakness of character.
We can only imagine how much better a deal Boris could have achieved had the EU been faced with the prospect of a no deal outcome.
The Tory campaign so far has been appalling. You can see what the tactic is: heads down, count the days and let The Sun and The Mail demonize Corbyn. But this presumption - that a Tory majority is the default position - is both arrogant and moronic. Boris's only selling point is that he's a winner whereas Theresa was a loser, but so far he's done absolutely nothing to persuade any normal person of this. If we get another hung parliament he will be destroyed. His and the Tories' laziness baffles me.
Although 2017 comparisons are wearing thin somewhat, there is a similarity at present in how each party has approached the campaign. I hope the Tories have learned their lesson and in the closing weeks actually turn up to fight. The risk is we get to three or so weeks out, they announce some policies and like the social care one the media jump all over it and create a negative narrative that persists all the way through to polling day.
Whoever is coming up with the Tory manifesto, I hope they're running it under the microscope six or seven times before it sees the light of day.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
It's a very sad reflection on our electoral system when that's all the choice we get. The rallying cry of both the old duopoly seems to be were not as bad as the other lot. Stirring stuff indeed
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.
Times has their policy earlier this morning. No benefits for EU citizens for 5 years.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
I think Corbyn's strategy in the debate should be to avoid discussing Brexit as much as is humanly possible. The more it becomes a Brexit debate, the more he stands to lose.
The natural response to "it doesn't deliver on what was voted for" is "you are not delivering on the result of the referendum." For Brexit leaning voters, the weakness is on the Labour side, not the Tory one.
Yes he can talk about NI and the technicalities of the deal, but to be honest a lot of voters don't go into the detail on Brexit, the mood music is that a vote for Boris means we leave, a vote for Corbyn throws that into doubt.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
If you're under the age of 74 you have never voted in an election in which the Labour Party has won a working majority, other than when it was led to Tony Blair.
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.
Times has their policy earlier this morning. No benefits for EU citizens for 5 years.
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
Socialism is a lie and doesn't work
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?
That report should have Tories shitting themselves. Labour winning every day.
The Tories will come back with immigration in the final fortnight, because it's all they've got. This is assuming they aren't flat out on the floor by then, because for the next 2 weeks everything will be in Labour's direction.
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
I think it will be FOM with the EU but with new regulations on not undercutting wages.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.
Times has their policy earlier this morning. No benefits for EU citizens for 5 years.
That's not enough. Tories should be promising a points based system for all immigrants. E.u or not
The Johnson deal was what May negotiated then got shelved when the DUP said no.
He dropped his red line on a border in the Irish Sea and the EU re-negotiated. Anyone who actually followed the process knows this was always going to happen.
The most intelligent thing Corbyn can do in the debate on Tuesday is hammer home what Johnson said about his own deal, what it does to NI, how it won't deliver what was voted for.
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
If the debates drift on to Brexit then it will play to Boris's advantage I think. He is offering a clear end (yes, I know) in the eyes of voters fatigued with the whole process.
I have doubts that Corbyn's offer of further national angst; months of renegotiation with the EU, further months of wrangling about the framing of the question, months of incredibly bitter campaigning followed by millions of voters potentially feeling cheated...is going to be a popular one.
Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.
Which he then failed to solve?
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.
It's not attacks on rail strikes, just that it drives pissed-off commuters to the polls. Will they blame the unions, management or government?
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
Socialism is a lie and doesn't work
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.
Interesting poll of parents conducted by Deltapoll which didn’t get much media attention .
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
All these signs are indications how quickly things can change.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
One big trap that Corbyn is going to have to handle is the South West Rail strikes in early Dec. If the Torys handle this well and pin the blame on Corbyn and his Union mates, it could solidify Tory support in a large area.
Indeed. Imo a big part of Boris's first mayoral victory was tube strikes.
Which he then failed to solve?
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.
It's not attacks on rail strikes, just that it drives pissed-off commuters to the polls. Will they blame the unions, management or government?
Polls seem to suggest they favour nationalisation, so presumably the Government?
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
"EU migrants who come to the UK after Brexit will be barred from claiming benefits for five years under plans to end free movement expected to be announced in the Tory manifesto."
Wow - this is going to be really popular.
Really? I wonder how many people will actually think this is going to help their lives one iota.
I used to think that voters made rational choices to select that politician/party that would make their lives better. Now I think it's more complicated, and under certain circumstances they vote to select that politician/party that would make other people's lives worse. I won't detain you with the Terry Pratchett quote, but people are not necessarily nice.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can end up, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can go, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Have you lived in the UK for the last 9 years? Life hasn't improved for regular people at all.
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
The NI politicians are still saying they don't like it.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
I thought the original EU proposal was NI stays in the EU customs union and leaves the UK one. With Boris deal NI is in both.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
Socialism is a lie and doesn't work
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.
What an utterly stupid way to look at anything.
Well we're moving closer to the USA model and it's so far been a disaster. So yes I will stick with what I say thanks.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?
The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
The briefings coming out are the Tories are confident of a large majority, the Sun and others are saying Corbyn is finished, etc.
It's not exactly the same as 2017 but there is arrogance around.
This election is all to play for. I won't make any certain predictions but I will say I was one of the few to call 2017 right and I got 4 to 1 on no overall majority.
I would be amazed if the polling doesn't show it is much closer in two weeks time.
I don't see a strong Labour campaign. If anything, the polling seems to be trending towards the Conservatives.
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
Free broadband seems like a policy sketched out on the back of a beermat but it does seem to have spooked CCHQ. The trouble with saying it should be left to the market is that many voters will be thinking the market has not done a very good job so far.
ETA: rather like the Conservatives' p0rn filter, it does seem to have been dreamt up by someone not wholly au fait with the technicalities.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
Socialism is a lie and doesn't work
I think any policy that moves us closer to Norway and further from the USA model is very good.
What an utterly stupid way to look at anything.
Well we're moving closer to the USA model and it's so far been a disaster. So yes I will stick with what I say thanks.
The Norway model relies on pumping lots of oil out of the sea-bed and selling it. It's where they get their Owl money from.
So presumably you disagree with Labour's environmental policy of reducing reliance on fossil fuels and becoming "Carbon Free".
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
Free broadband seems like a policy sketched out on the back of a beermat but it does seem to have spooked CCHQ. The trouble with saying it should be left to the market is that many voters will be thinking the market has not done a very good job so far.
Their response should have been an alternative broadband offer via investment, etc. but instead they just shouted "muh Communism" which is very odd as I was assured Cummings and co were strategic geniuses.
The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
As far as I can tell, the Conservatives are nervous, not complacent.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can go, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Have you lived in the UK for the last 9 years? Life hasn't improved for regular people at all.
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.
Maybe if we weren’t paying £40bn a year in interest to the evil bankers who lent the almost bankrupt government money, there would be more to go around for everybody else?
Government spending has gone *up* every year since 2010, the only difference is that more and more of it is being paid in debt interest rather than on schools and hospitals.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?
May didn't ask. Boris did.
May had the wrong priority.
May didn't ask because it's what the EU offered her originally. She turned it down because the DUP said no.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.
Wow, nearly a sensible policy there from someone. Shame it’s from the party who disagree with democracy when they don’t like the result, otherwise I might have considered voting for them.
You think the government taking more and more money out of the economy so they can do nothing with it except accrue it, forever, is sensible?
I think that carrying 88% of GDP as government debt, and spending more than £40bn a year servicing it even with interest rates on the floor, is a massive weight around the neck of the future of the economy.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
It was originally predicted that any country that breached 80% would fall into a blackhole. We're still here.
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
It’s only a frantic amount of money printing and a decade of almost-zero interest rates that have kept the economy from collapsing.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can go, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Have you lived in the UK for the last 9 years? Life hasn't improved for regular people at all.
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.
Considering how bankrupt the country was "not improved" is a mammoth achievement while eliminating Labour's deficit
Go to Venezuela, Bolivia or even Greece and see how much life has gotten worse when Corbynite or Corbyn lite policies have been followed.
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I'm a regular on a football forum (northern so predominantly Labour supporters) and the broadband proposal has been received more with mild amusement than anything else.
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
Free broadband seems like a policy sketched out on the back of a beermat but it does seem to have spooked CCHQ. The trouble with saying it should be left to the market is that many voters will be thinking the market has not done a very good job so far.
I am not suggesting that all is rosy in the broadband world but generally speaking its available for most and relatively inexpensive. Yes there are arguments about the rollout of fibre but and I'd quite happily admit that there are problems particularly in rural areas, and have been for yonks, but I don't think many people would list their broadband provision as one of their top concerns.
EDIT: besides, there's an argument that as mobile data becomes more and more advanced the wired internet service is going to become more and more obsolete.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?
May didn't ask. Boris did.
May had the wrong priority.
May didn't ask because it's what the EU offered her originally. She turned it down because the DUP said no.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.
Yes, Theresa didn't ask because she thought it was so stupid that she'd never be able to live with herself and the Tory party would never forgive her. Boris was more astute in that sense - he knew that the Tories would turn on a sixpence once he'd manipulated their shared conscious to be primarily concerned with the advancement of his career.
Call me a leftie or whatever but I find it genuinally astonishing that people think Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other.
Well not quite actually true. People think Corbyn is much, much worse than Johnson.
So increase your astonishment.
And I'd like to understand how this can be true.
Because Corbyn is an intellectually challenged, lazy, mendacious, hypocritical, ignorant piece of unreconstructed Marxist excrement.
Have I missed anything?
"Laziness": only one out of Johnson and Corbyn has called someone a "girly swot" for wanting MPs to do some work in the month of September.
"Mendacity": only one of them has repeatedly been sacked by employers for dishonesty. Not very many people have that kind of record, but the present prime minister does.
"Hypocrisy": if Tories think free-at-the-point-of-use broadband is "communist", why not say the same about NHS maternity care? And if getting stuff for free is a bad idea, and if the rich are rich because they're intelligent, then why not raise IHT to 90% on larger estates?
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
The NI politicians are still saying they don't like it.
Then they can end the arrangements in Stormont if that's what a majority of NI voters and their politicians think. Job done.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
I thought the original EU proposal was NI stays in the EU customs union and leaves the UK one. With Boris deal NI is in both.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
Could Theresa have got that from the EU if she'd have asked? Yes absolutely. So what's the big deal. Where's Boris's genius?
May didn't ask. Boris did.
May had the wrong priority.
May didn't ask because it's what the EU offered her originally. She turned it down because the DUP said no.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.
Yes, Theresa didn't ask because she thought it was so stupid that she'd never be able to live with herself and the Tory party would never forgive her. Boris was more astute in that sense - he knew that the Tories would turn on a sixpence once he'd manipulated their shared conscious to be primarily concerned with the advancement of his career.
My point is that the deal isn't new.
It will unravel when it turns out it's not what people thought they were voting for - not that anyone actually knows.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
Did the original deal have a unilateral Stormont exit? Yes or no?
If no this is not the same deal.
I said that in no real sense was in a "new" deal. Do you really think Johnson was aware of that detail? Even now he doesn't appear to understand his own deal as we saw last week.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
Considering he negotiated the consent mechanism and the delays leading up to it had much talk about the consent mechanism being negotiated then yes I do think he was aware of that.
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
The NI politicians are still saying they don't like it.
Then they can end the arrangements in Stormont if that's what a majority of NI voters and their politicians think. Job done.
Is that the same Stormont that hasn’t sat for over three years then?
Comments
I have always thought this poll influence stuff is nonsense. YouGov (via MRP) and Survation were the only two to call 2017 right (within MOE).
Who knows, Survation got 2017 right but EU wrong.
Nobody knows. The only thing that seems to be consistent is the trend.
https://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1195656906108526598
Who knows, Survation got 2017 right but EU wrong.
Nobody knows. The only thing that seems to be consistent is the trend. I'm going to be impacted by that
The public are already well aware of strikes though - I know this is the longest in history apparently - but whenever this issue comes up it just seems to make the calls for nationalisation stronger.
Not sure it's a strong issue for the Tories, because they have to propose a solution to it. What can they do, propose banning striking? And won't that just get responses of caring more about the south again?
I wonder if they'll go for it, not sure it's a vote winner.
Essentially Mays deal effectively, for at least a period of time, kept the U.K. inside the single market and customs union. This reduces economic disruption at the cost of democratic accountability.
Whether this is better or worse depends on your own value judgements
It's possible Labour will include more restrictions on immigration in their Remain package. Soon we'll find out.
Question then becomes whether that sort of result delivers a majority. Electoral Calculus' new model says no, but I think its possibly over-corrected some of its failings from its old model. I think a small majority would be delivered on such a result, but it will be down to what happens in the marginals.
Think it will probably go down quite well.
Remember Johnson is proposing FOM as well for "high skilled" workers with no immigration cap. Which seems like a strategic error to me.
More money for health, education, whatever sounds like a good thing and it’s a bit remote from people’s day to day life so they don’t know how to judge
Broadband is something a lot of people are paying for themselves. Obviously free stuff is good but it feels (a) more like a bribe and (b) people are struggling to understand why the governments should take on this responsibility
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
I'd also be a bit more clever and say that the EU is willing to re-open when redlines are dropped and then use that as a pitch for the final say with a credible deal vs Remain. Seems like that's the best way to do it.
Then just smash on the final half an hour on the other issues, which Corbyn should win on, in theory.
I think Corbyn will win it, because expectations are so low and for Johnson people think he's amazing (spoiler: he isn't - and anyone who has watched his leadership debates will know that).
Case dropped as no realistic prospect of a conviction
The natural response to "it doesn't deliver on what was voted for" is "you are not delivering on the result of the referendum." For Brexit leaning voters, the weakness is on the Labour side, not the Tory one.
Yes he can talk about NI and the technicalities of the deal, but to be honest a lot of voters don't go into the detail on Brexit, the mood music is that a vote for Boris means we leave, a vote for Corbyn throws that into doubt.
The problem with Johnson is there is so much material on him that proves he can't do what he says.
Going on railways when his lot have had 9 years of it, isn't going to be a good attack.
All of these issues, they've had 9 years to sort them out. That's probably the reason these attacks won't land.
If no this is not the same deal.
I didn't say it wasn't different from May's deal I said it was no different from the deal the EU had put on the table 18 months earlier and which Johnson had opposed at the time.
t was in no real sense a "new" deal that he had negotiated. He just lied about never accepting a border in the Irish sea when he opposed it first time around
It's a pity that remainers can't accept that their oh so confident (and so often repeated and retweeted) predictions that the EU would not renegotiate, and that even if they wanted to there was not time, were just flat out wrong. It betrays weakness of character.
We can only imagine how much better a deal Boris could have achieved had the EU been faced with the prospect of a no deal outcome.
What could it be?
Whoever is coming up with the Tory manifesto, I hope they're running it under the microscope six or seven times before it sees the light of day.
The next recession is going to be awful if the last one still hasn’t been recovered from, we should be running a vast surplus at this stage of the economic cycle, no matter how politically difficult that may be.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1195449498358681606
OGH is sensitive to attacks on pollsters integrity though
Neoliberal economics is a lie and doesn't work.
If you're under the age of 74 you have never voted in an election in which the Labour Party has won a working majority, other than when it was led to Tony Blair.
But FOM will continue for at least some workers.
I did throw a hand grenade in there about government broadband only coming in one size, adult content being blocked, outages lasting weeks, traffic being monitored etc etc.
The Tories should be able to pick apart the proposal quite easily and the younger voters won't like it one bit when they hear the suggested realities.
As an aside, the timing of the announcement seemed slightly odd given it knocked the NHS off top billing. Labour should have waited a few days.
Does the deal create a border in the Irish sea and did Johnson say that no PM would do that? The problem is we have become so inured to Johnson lying that. like Trump, nobody is shocked by it anymore
So increase your astonishment.
He dropped his red line on a border in the Irish Sea and the EU re-negotiated. Anyone who actually followed the process knows this was always going to happen.
Corbyn is seen as much much worse
If the debates drift on to Brexit then it will play to Boris's advantage I think. He is offering a clear end (yes, I know) in the eyes of voters fatigued with the whole process.
I have doubts that Corbyn's offer of further national angst; months of renegotiation with the EU, further months of wrangling about the framing of the question, months of incredibly bitter campaigning followed by millions of voters potentially feeling cheated...is going to be a popular one.
Have I missed anything?
The original proposal was for special arrangements for NI de jure which NI politicians said they didn't like and British ones said they didn't like. So May's response was to extend the special arrangements to the whole of the UK proclaiming no border like it was a triumph.
Boris took the special arrangements said there can't de jure be a border but there can de facto be one with the consent of the devolved administration.
Boris deal is a far smarter and far more democratic solution.
If that’s how socialism-lite under Brown can end up, imagine what happens if we go for the full-fat Corbyn version?
Go out into the real world and witness the increase in homeless people or people sleeping rough. Tell me it's worth it then.
https://mobile.twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195665963334676480
May had the wrong priority.
ETA: rather like the Conservatives' p0rn filter, it does seem to have been dreamt up by someone not wholly au fait with the technicalities.
So presumably you disagree with Labour's environmental policy of reducing reliance on fossil fuels and becoming "Carbon Free".
Interesting.
It would be hugely popular in Midlands/NW/NE.
Government spending has gone *up* every year since 2010, the only difference is that more and more of it is being paid in debt interest rather than on schools and hospitals.
The deal is what May originally negotiated.
The only thing the EU offered was to have NI in the UK Customs Territory "in name only" but everyone knows it's just words.
This deal will unraval when it gets properly scrutinised.
Go to Venezuela, Bolivia or even Greece and see how much life has gotten worse when Corbynite or Corbyn lite policies have been followed.
EDIT: besides, there's an argument that as mobile data becomes more and more advanced the wired internet service is going to become more and more obsolete.
"Mendacity": only one of them has repeatedly been sacked by employers for dishonesty. Not very many people have that kind of record, but the present prime minister does.
"Hypocrisy": if Tories think free-at-the-point-of-use broadband is "communist", why not say the same about NHS maternity care? And if getting stuff for free is a bad idea, and if the rich are rich because they're intelligent, then why not raise IHT to 90% on larger estates?
It will unravel when it turns out it's not what people thought they were voting for - not that anyone actually knows.
Homeless are the few. Those in "Poverty" are the few.
Corbyn's for the Many.
Ah, the logic of socialists.