Flanner: "Irrelevant, though. Johnson would lose the first VONC, so we'd go to stage 2 almost immediately. "
Thanks for your answer. Regarding the above - the opposition parties have been happy to keep the CP limping along like a wounded animal. Maybe they will do so again?
Seems to me that the odds on a minority Conservative government (it doens`t matter if it`s short-lived), at a best-priced 9/1, are a bit on the generous side?
I loathe the man, though not as much as Mrs Foxy does. It made for an uncomfortable political discussion with my folks last night in Romsey. Even my dad was desperate to get off the subject, and to get back to grandchildren, pets and medical issues.
Whatsapp from my mother: "The shed is leaking but at least it doesn't have Boris wearing wellingtons in it."
"In truth, gravity is not really all that powerful. When you blu-tac a paper to a wall, for example, you’re overcoming the gravitational power of an entire planet with a small amount of fairly weak adhesive."
Loved that passage.
"This is a disparity that cannot endure."
I fear that Johnson will always be given the benefit of the doubt. It will always be someone else's fault. If the public do turn against him I would expect they will make up for their present indulgence by overreacting to the other extreme, and we would see a disparity in the other direction.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
Well, for starters, he did a pretty good job getting a new deal from the EU.
Except it wasn't actually a "new" deal was it? It had been pretty much offered to May 18 months before
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
Well, for starters, he did a pretty good job getting a new deal from the EU.
Except it wasn't actually a "new" deal was it? It had been pretty much offered to May 18 months before
If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.
Well, for starters, he did a pretty good job getting a new deal from the EU.
Actually, he took the old deal, removed the Irish Backstop by placing a border down the Irish Sea and dislocated Northern Ireland a bit more from the rest of the UK. NI firms will have to prepare export documentation to move goods within the UK.
That Survation poll in the Economist was a real eye-opener. Along with the Workington poll, it suggests real trouble for Labour in marginal battlegrounds.
Is that available in some guise outwith the paywall?
Well, for starters, he did a pretty good job getting a new deal from the EU.
Actually, he took the old deal, removed the Irish Backstop by placing a border down the Irish Sea and dislocated Northern Ireland a bit more from the rest of the UK. NI firms will have to prepare export documentation to move goods within the UK.
Exactly what he said he would never do.
True - and he lost the DUP support for the foreseeable future.
2019 offers Colne Valley electors a positive plethora of brexity options (Con, UKIP, BXP, Yorkshires) which tempted me to think that Lab might defy UNS and hold this seat at 5/4.
However it does look as if the 2015 UKIP vote swung LAB in 2017.
2015: Con 44% Lab 35% UKIP 10%
2017: Con 46% Lab 48% UKIP 0%
I've decided therefore that the brexity parties will hurt LAB more than CON, and that CON, turbocharged by UNS and an attendant LAB->LIBDEM swing, will regain this seat very easily at 4/6.
Comments on my muggishness always appreciated.
This is my constituency. I agree with your take if we look at the overall national polling figures. However on the ground the Conservatives are on the back foot. In May they lost their strongest ward to Labour. Labour also has the advantages of having paid staff in post. There will be a rebound to the Lib Dems but this will affect the Conservatives as well as Labour.
Having watched the John Curtice clip below, I`m still not clear on what happens in the scenario that CP wins most seats but doesn`t get a majority (and can`t cobble one together).
In this scenario, if the opposiiton parties coalesced in some way in order to form a majority, would they be able to form a government ahead of CP running along on a minority basis?
I`ve asked this question before and some of you, inc HYUFD I think, said that CP, as incumbents, will have "first dibs" on going forward on a minority basis even if a majority is present elewhere.
However, Curtice is saying that this election boils down to Tory majority + Brexit v coalition + referendum. He doesn`t mention the possibility of Tory minority government.
Can some explain the rules to me again?
My understanding - and I'm happy to be corrected - is that the Queen has to ask the person most likely to assemble a majority for a vote of confidence. In practice, that person has always been a member of parliament - and a member of the H of C for so long that's effectively part of the Constitution as well. One key overriding principle, though, is that the Queen can't look political - so her advisors may suggest, if Johnson's ahead of Labour, that the head of the largest party takes first dibs to be on the safe side.
Irrelevant, though. Johnson would lose the first VONC, so we'd go to stage 2 almost immediately. Swinson would repeat her refusal to countenance Labour's Trot minority, and Labour, perforce, would blink first. Swinson, Sturgeon, Lucas and - let's guess Starmer - would huddle, we'd end up with Someone Like Starmer (SLS) running a minority government, possibly in coalition with the SNP, which the LDs would support only when it behaves itself.
There aren't rules for most of this, so the haggling would prob take time. Probably, therefore, Ms S and Ms S would agree with SLS that SLS would temporarily run an emergency administration, intended to do nothing but react to crises, until we had final agreement.
In any case: after a third EU referendum, there'd probably be another GE anyway. This time dominated by a party that ISN'T committed to fucking business, and another party that ISN'T committed to recreating Venezuela.
There are two limbs to the answer, constitutional and political. The constitutional position is set out in the Cabinet Manual, easily available online, Chapter 2. A key issue there is that the PM is the PM until s/he isn't, so as of now Boris is PM until someone else is whatever happens in the election. The other key issue is that no PM can survive losing a valid VONC unless it is reversed quickly.
The political limb is pure guesswork, but I think there are only 3 outcomes: Tory win and Boris stays, Tory clearly don't win and Grand Alliance occurs for purposes of extension and Ref2 or (quite possible) a stalemate
That Survation poll in the Economist was a real eye-opener. Along with the Workington poll, it suggests real trouble for Labour in marginal battlegrounds.
Is that available in some guise outwith the paywall?
You can usually torrent a .pdf of it on the day of publication.
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
If the opposition parties can’t indicate to HM that they have an absolute majority, then they’ll have to either vote down the Queen’s Speech, or win a formal Vote of Confidence under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act when Parliament reconvenes after the election.
(I assume that high on the list of the next government with a majority, will be to replace the FTPA).
Surely the situation would be the same as in 2010? I.E the government remains in office until the monarch can be satisfied there is an alternative. If the LDs, SNP et al indicate to HM that they are willing to confidence and supply a Labour government, surely Corbyn is called?
Bojo will surely win this because, unusually for an incumbent, he represents hope and change, whereas Jezza has lost whatever fizz he once had, and is now taken to be old-school, and dull. Hence the yawns to yesterday’s broadband announcement. Two years ago this would have been seen as radical and daring. Now it is seen as crass and fantastic. Bojo’s popularity will only collapse when Labour get rid of Corbyn, and replace him with thier own hopey change character. That may be a while. Recession, disgrace, discovery of more illegitimate children and lovers won’t be enough. That is factored in. Bojo isn’t popular now anyway so he hasn’t got much further to fall.
The Tories are going to need a bit more than plant a few trees type policies to look like hope and change.
2019 offers Colne Valley electors a positive plethora of brexity options (Con, UKIP, BXP, Yorkshires) which tempted me to think that Lab might defy UNS and hold this seat at 5/4.
However it does look as if the 2015 UKIP vote swung LAB in 2017.
2015: Con 44% Lab 35% UKIP 10%
2017: Con 46% Lab 48% UKIP 0%
I've decided therefore that the brexity parties will hurt LAB more than CON, and that CON, turbocharged by UNS and an attendant LAB->LIBDEM swing, will regain this seat very easily at 4/6.
Comments on my muggishness always appreciated.
This is my constituency. I agree with your take if we look at the overall national polling figures. However on the ground the Conservatives are on the back foot. In May they lost their strongest ward to Labour. Labour also has the advantages of having paid staff in post. There will be a rebound to the Lib Dems but this will affect the Conservatives as well as Labour.
If the Tories can't win seats like Colne Valley then they are in trouble.
Talking about free stuff I'm taking the boy to Teesside University open day. All full time undergrads are handed an iPad and keyboard case on enrollment...
That Survation poll in the Economist was a real eye-opener. Along with the Workington poll, it suggests real trouble for Labour in marginal battlegrounds.
Is that available in some guise outwith the paywall?
You can usually torrent a .pdf of it on the day of publication.
Uncanny the way the folk on here with whom BJ is popular seem to run into folk with whom BJ is popular.
I loathe the man, though not as much as Mrs Foxy does. It made for an uncomfortable political discussion with my folks last night in Romsey. Even my dad was desperate to get off the subject, and to get back to grandchildren, pets and medical issues.
My dad usually hates public school bluffers, and my mother hates personal imorality, and fathers who abandon their children especially. Both are going to be voting for BoZo's party though, despite considering Nokes a traitor.
Interesting to see that the only literature that had come in their post was from the LD, with a good local self made businessman as candidate. No Green candidate, but there is a UKIP one. Not an impossible LD gain imo.
I guess politics is always tricky with family. I sometimes find when people want to get off the subject it's because they know there are problems with their own position which they'd rather not examine. At least that's at a sign of some moral consideration as opposed to the robotic BJ boosters.
In a speech yesterday Chuka Umunna said that the bookies did not have Labour as favourites in any Conservative held seats. Anyone know if this is true?
On the basis of a few conversations I have had recently with previously rock solid Labour voters I think that Hampstead and Kilburn is a decent outside bet to be an LD gain. Even I am taken aback by just how much Corbyn is loathed and Johnson is seen as the best of two piss-poor choices.
In a speech yesterday Chuka Umunna said that the bookies did not have Labour as favourites in any Conservative held seats. Anyone know if this is true?
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
Johnson enters the new parliament, he is immediately no confidenced, the opposition have 14 days to present a new candidate for PM who has to demonstrate through a vote of confidence that he has. They then become PM and form a government. If no one does then into another election.
Look at the calendar. Boris enters the new parliament and immediately prorogues it for Christmas and a new Queen's Speech in January. Or possibly April. The opposition parties will not have time to faff around with Jo Swinson's pearl-clutching at the sight of Corbyn. Action this day!
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
If the opposition parties can’t indicate to HM that they have an absolute majority, then they’ll have to either vote down the Queen’s Speech, or win a formal Vote of Confidence under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act when Parliament reconvenes after the election.
(I assume that high on the list of the next government with a majority, will be to replace the FTPA).
Surely the situation would be the same as in 2010? I.E the government remains in office until the monarch can be satisfied there is an alternative. If the LDs, SNP et al indicate to HM that they are willing to confidence and supply a Labour government, surely Corbyn is called?
Unless the FTPA has messed all that up too....
Yes, there would in practice need to be a document signed by those representing at least 326 MPs, pledging a formal alliance (whether coalition, C&S or some other agreement), as happened in 2010, before the sitting PM would resign and call for someone else. Otherwise it would be the VoNC route under the FTPA.
The PM isn’t going to resign until he’s certain that a clear named replacement has been identified who can win a confidence vote, so if the numbers are very close or there are probable dissenters from within the new coalition, he’d probably wait for a confidence vote in himself first - which doesn’t oblige him to stand down, even if he loses it, until the success is identified or we get another election.
What's the view around these parts of the constituency level being different to the headline intention?
We need MRP soon - any ideas when we might get some?
I got yougoved this AM with constituency specific questions inc tactical voting, so expect one this week.
What did you answer if you don't mind me asking?
I recently signed up to YouGov, will they ever poll me on voting intention?
I had to do quite a lengthy questionnaire on streaming services first, and some demographic ones.
I answered honestly, I voted LD last time, and will do so again. The questions named candidates and the tactical runoff were LD vs Con. I am in Rutland and Melton, which includes some Leicester suburbs.
On the basis of a few conversations I have had recently with previously rock solid Labour voters I think that Hampstead and Kilburn is a decent outside bet to be an LD gain. Even I am taken aback by just how much Corbyn is loathed and Johnson is seen as the best of two piss-poor choices.
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
If the opposition parties can’t indicate to HM that they have an absolute majority, then they’ll have to either vote down the Queen’s Speech, or win a formal Vote of Confidence under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act when Parliament reconvenes after the election.
(I assume that high on the list of the next government with a majority, will be to replace the FTPA).
Surely the situation would be the same as in 2010? I.E the government remains in office until the monarch can be satisfied there is an alternative. If the LDs, SNP et al indicate to HM that they are willing to confidence and supply a Labour government, surely Corbyn is called?
Unless the FTPA has messed all that up too....
Yes, there would in practice need to be a document signed by those representing at least 326 MPs, pledging a formal alliance (whether coalition, C&S or some other agreement), as happened in 2010, before the sitting PM would resign and call for someone else. Otherwise it would be the VoNC route under the FTPA.
The FTPA doesn't have the slightest effect on the appointment, resignation or dismissal of prime ministers. That is still governed by the same conventions that existed before the FTPA was passed. None of which involve signed documents "signed by those representing at least 326 MP." The fact that they are conventions means that they aren't written in stone - or even on paper.
In a speech yesterday Chuka Umunna said that the bookies did not have Labour as favourites in any Conservative held seats. Anyone know if this is true?
I struggle to identify a single Lab gain, but if one happens then it would be good value. Possibly a 3 way marginal like Portsmouth South, or perhaps somewhere in Merseyside.
2019 offers Colne Valley electors a positive plethora of brexity options (Con, UKIP, BXP, Yorkshires) which tempted me to think that Lab might defy UNS and hold this seat at 5/4.
However it does look as if the 2015 UKIP vote swung LAB in 2017.
2015: Con 44% Lab 35% UKIP 10%
2017: Con 46% Lab 48% UKIP 0%
I've decided therefore that the brexity parties will hurt LAB more than CON, and that CON, turbocharged by UNS and an attendant LAB->LIBDEM swing, will regain this seat very easily at 4/6.
Comments on my muggishness always appreciated.
This is my constituency. I agree with your take if we look at the overall national polling figures. However on the ground the Conservatives are on the back foot. In May they lost their strongest ward to Labour. Labour also has the advantages of having paid staff in post. There will be a rebound to the Lib Dems but this will affect the Conservatives as well as Labour.
The sense I get is that most of the GE2017 Labour Gains from Conservative in England, and in Scotland from the SNP, are very vulnerable.
I think Tories at 7/2 in Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport is a good bet.
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
If the opposition parties can’t indicate to HM that they have an absolute majority, then they’ll have to either vote down the Queen’s Speech, or win a formal Vote of Confidence under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act when Parliament reconvenes after the election.
(I assume that high on the list of the next government with a majority, will be to replace the FTPA).
Surely the situation would be the same as in 2010? I.E the government remains in office until the monarch can be satisfied there is an alternative. If the LDs, SNP et al indicate to HM that they are willing to confidence and supply a Labour government, surely Corbyn is called?
Unless the FTPA has messed all that up too....
Yes, there would in practice need to be a document signed by those representing at least 326 MPs, pledging a formal alliance (whether coalition, C&S or some other agreement), as happened in 2010, before the sitting PM would resign and call for someone else. Otherwise it would be the VoNC route under the FTPA.
The FTPA doesn't have the slightest effect on the appointment, resignation or dismissal of prime ministers. That is still governed by the same conventions that existed before the FTPA was passed. None of which involve signed documents "signed by those representing at least 326 MP." The fact that they are conventions means that they aren't written in stone - or even on paper.
So, what in practice should the opposition parties need to do, in order to persuade the PM to resign?
If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.
I have seen it confidently asserted that: a) Mr Johnson's deal is exactly the same as Mrs May's deal; b) Mr Johnson's deal is much worse for the UK than Mrs May's deal; c) Mr Johnson's deal is much better for the UK than Mrs May's deal.
So what the deal is actually like seems to be an open question.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
There are almost always seats that go the other way. Even in 1983, Labour made a few gains from the Conservatives.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
There are almost always seats that go the other way. Even in 1983, Labour made a few gains from the Conservatives.
Would it have been possible to identify Glasgow Cathcart, Liverpool Broadgreen or Birmingham Erdington prior to the election ?
A surprisingly apocalyptic warning from David Herdson of all people as to how how he sees things inevitably going horribly wrong for Boris. We PBers must not forget that it was David's brilliant prescience in 2017 by which he identified the sudden change in the national mood, initially much scoffed at on here, but which proved absolutely spot on in anticipating the complete disappearance of a universally expected 100+ overall majority for the Tories to the actual result just a matter of a few days later in which they totally failed to achieve even the tiniest such majority.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
I'm in Henley at the moment and the Lib Dems are out in force. They say it's a huge mountain to climb but they are being very well received-having an attractive candidate helps-and two or three of those campaigning are renegade Tories who have changed colours. For all those voting in this area Laura Coyle is the name to look for
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
There are almost always seats that go the other way. Even in 1983, Labour made a few gains from the Conservatives.
There will always be a few seats with extenuating circumstances, whether it be a local scandal, a popular incumbent standing down, demographic changes etc.
I would think that at this election, there’s a lot more of these seats than usual given all the party affiliation changes, as well as a fair few former MPs standing as independents only to collect their redundancy payment.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The Lib Dem vote is going to get squeezed heavily, I think by at least 5 points.
Their polling rise has come from Labour voters, who like Labour's other policies but don't like their Brexit policy.
As soon as the choice becomes between second referendum or hard Brexit, they will return to Labour.
I keep saying to people: the Lib Dems need Tory voters, the people that voted for them in 2010 but either didn't vote in 2015 or voted for Cameron.
In a speech yesterday Chuka Umunna said that the bookies did not have Labour as favourites in any Conservative held seats. Anyone know if this is true?
I think I've trawled them all and I haven't seen one. There's very little under 2s, which indicates sentiment. Thank you for your earlier comments on colne valley btw.
Talking about free stuff I'm taking the boy to Teesside University open day. All full time undergrads are handed an iPad and keyboard case on enrollment...
What an astonishing waste of money. Funded by the tuition fees those students are paying so not free by any means.
I wonder how many of those students already own a tablet and/or laptop etc.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The LibDems need to find a reason to vote LibDem and to announce it quickly. They've already wasted a good deal of free airtime crying about who's been invited to the debates. Soon they will be drowned out by the main parties.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The LibDems need to find a reason to vote LibDem and to announce it quickly. They've already wasted a good deal of free airtime crying about who's been invited to the debates. Soon they will be drowned out by the main parties.
That's an interesting point. Does all their time on air bemoaning the fact they're not on the debates count towards their allotted time on air? I suppose it must. Oops.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The LibDems need to find a reason to vote LibDem and to announce it quickly. They've already wasted a good deal of free airtime crying about who's been invited to the debates. Soon they will be drowned out by the main parties.
You need to peak with about ten days to go. I think the lib Dems are doing the right thing. Johnson is reminding people daily what it was they didn't like about him. (as David implies)
It will be interesting to see if the broadband policy has any effect on the polls. It seems to have cut through, though I can't predict at this stage exactly what the impact is. Although there has been some polling (Yougov?) that suggests its popular, I think it could go one of two ways:
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
It will be interesting to see if the broadband policy has any effect on the polls. It seems to have cut through, though I can't predict at this stage exactly what the impact is. Although there has been some polling (Yougov?) that suggests its popular, I think it could go one of two ways:
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
I can't accurately gauge the mood at the moment.
Aren't the Tories also promising lots of free stuff?
I refer to previous comments about the 2015 austerity debate, when Labour offered austerity-lite and the Tories offered austerity-heavy. People just voted for the real thing instead.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
Great minds...
I was just looking at Putney. Does anyone have the split for the 2017 vote percentages for Inner and Outer London? And do we know what definition of Inner London YouGov use in their London poll?
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
Really? The general consensus thus far has been that the major threat to the Tories in Putney was not from Labour, despite their excellent showing in 2017 when Justine Greening's majority was reduced from >10,000 to a highly marginal level of 1,500, but rather from the LibDems, who are showing such strength in the neighbouring constituencies of Wimbledon, Richmond, Twickenham, etc. Perhaps the Tories' best chance of retaining Putney will prove to be by Labour and the LDs destroying each others' chances.
Talking about free stuff I'm taking the boy to Teesside University open day. All full time undergrads are handed an iPad and keyboard case on enrollment...
What an astonishing waste of money. Funded by the tuition fees those students are paying so not free by any means.
I wonder how many of those students already own a tablet and/or laptop etc.
Free ipads might be a gimmick though the keyboard suggests not. One advantage of everyone having the same kit is it makes the university's life easier if (big if) they choose to use it for teaching, assessment and administration.
I've got a phone and a PC. Despite that, my employer has given me a (free) phone and laptop. That way, it has a level of control over what malware I download onto it, and more importantly means it only has to develop and support software for two platforms rather than a dozen.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
There are almost always seats that go the other way. Even in 1983, Labour made a few gains from the Conservatives.
Would it have been possible to identify Glasgow Cathcart, Liverpool Broadgreen or Birmingham Erdington prior to the election ?
Cathcart - Labour in 1979 but a notional Conservative after boundary changes, loss of Teddy Taylor personal vote
Broadgreen - new notional constituency, Liverpool economic problems, both Liverpool Conservative MPs had chicken run
Erdington - Labour in 1979 but a notional Conservative after boundary changes, Conservatives doing well in Birmingham elections
I think Cathcart and Broadgreen were not unexpected but Erdington was.
Crewe and Nantwich was also notionally Conservative in 1979 and won by Labour in 1983 but again the Nantwich Conservative MP had chicken run.
If it wasn’t that much different then he did a far better job of selling it politically.
I have seen it confidently asserted that: a) Mr Johnson's deal is exactly the same as Mrs May's deal; b) Mr Johnson's deal is much worse for the UK than Mrs May's deal; c) Mr Johnson's deal is much better for the UK than Mrs May's deal.
So what the deal is actually like seems to be an open question.
Apparently the most important fact in the whole deal which dictates whether it is better, worse or the same as May's is whether you agree or disagree with Brexit. Little of the commentary appears to have anything to do with the actual contents of the deal.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The LibDems need to find a reason to vote LibDem and to announce it quickly. They've already wasted a good deal of free airtime crying about who's been invited to the debates. Soon they will be drowned out by the main parties.
I agree with this they have been absent from the media. Ed Davey gave a speech on LD economic policy yesterday and the coverage has been basically zero.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The LibDems need to find a reason to vote LibDem and to announce it quickly. They've already wasted a good deal of free airtime crying about who's been invited to the debates. Soon they will be drowned out by the main parties.
Agreed. Labour have made the strategic decision, I think, the err on the side of remain, and hope that core leave voters will be tempted to hold their nose and stick with them, with the offer of baubles on the NHS, transport, education and the like.
I think it's probably the least risky decision they could have made and it could work. What it does do is leave the LDs a bit exposed on the Labour side, because what can they offer beyond stopping Brexit (which, although the Labour position is more nuanced, also presents a good chance of reaching that goal)?
In fairness, I think its more the Labour decisions that have impacted on Swinson other than anything she's done, although I think she has made an error in her 'cancel Brexit without a referendum' stance, because now all she's having to do is justify it. She should have committed to a second referendum and left it at that.
Talking about free stuff I'm taking the boy to Teesside University open day. All full time undergrads are handed an iPad and keyboard case on enrollment...
What an astonishing waste of money. Funded by the tuition fees those students are paying so not free by any means.
I wonder how many of those students already own a tablet and/or laptop etc.
Free ipads might be a gimmick though the keyboard suggests not. One advantage of everyone having the same kit is it makes the university's life easier if (big if) they choose to use it for teaching, assessment and administration.
I've got a phone and a PC. Despite that, my employer has given me a (free) phone and laptop. That way, it has a level of control over what malware I download onto it, and more importantly means it only has to develop and support software for two platforms rather than a dozen.
They could have got a lot more bang for their buck if they handed out Chromebooks instead. Much cheaper product, open eco-system, can easily run all the standard stuff like Office (as well as obviously Google free equivalents) and ability to dual boot them to run linux.
In the US, the majority of public schools use them for exactly this reason.
A surprisingly apocalyptic warning from David Herdson of all people as to how how he sees things inevitably going horribly wrong for Boris. We PBers must not forget that it was David's brilliant prescience in 2017 by which he identified the sudden change in the national mood, initially much scoffed at on here, but which proved absolutely spot on in anticipating the complete disappearance of a universally expected 100+ overall majority for the Tories to the actual result just a matter of a few days later in which they totally failed to achieve even the tiniest such majority.
Memories of David Herdson's comment are becoming mythical in their inacurracy.
For example much of the comment was wrong - Corbyn to become PM and Conservatives to win Wakefield was wrong.
There were also few people who still expected a 100+ majority for the Conservatives at that point.
And what is always forgotten that there was another Herdson campaign report which was much more positive for the Conservatives the following day.
It will be interesting to see if the broadband policy has any effect on the polls. It seems to have cut through, though I can't predict at this stage exactly what the impact is. Although there has been some polling (Yougov?) that suggests its popular, I think it could go one of two ways:
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
I can't accurately gauge the mood at the moment.
Aren't the Tories also promising lots of free stuff?
I refer to previous comments about the 2015 austerity debate, when Labour offered austerity-lite and the Tories offered austerity-heavy. People just voted for the real thing instead.
They are, but the Tories can't outspend Labour, so they will fall back into a habit of talking about maintaining a healthy economy coupled with the odd bauble here or there.
I do think you are right that there is a danger that in the election spending war people look at both parties and say "well, they're both going to spend money but those guys are going to spend more of it, we'll go with them."
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
There are almost always seats that go the other way. Even in 1983, Labour made a few gains from the Conservatives.
Would it have been possible to identify Glasgow Cathcart, Liverpool Broadgreen or Birmingham Erdington prior to the election ?
In a way it might have been because Glasgow, Liverpool and Birmingham were three of the places hardest hit by the early 1980s recession, and also the 1981 riots.
What's the view around these parts of the constituency level being different to the headline intention?
We need MRP soon - any ideas when we might get some?
I got yougoved this AM with constituency specific questions inc tactical voting, so expect one this week.
What did you answer if you don't mind me asking?
I recently signed up to YouGov, will they ever poll me on voting intention?
I had to do quite a lengthy questionnaire on streaming services first, and some demographic ones.
M'kay. So the sample is going to be biassed towards respondants who are prepared to sit through answering a lengthy questionnaire on straming services.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
The Lib Dem vote is going to get squeezed heavily, I think by at least 5 points.
Their polling rise has come from Labour voters, who like Labour's other policies but don't like their Brexit policy.
As soon as the choice becomes between second referendum or hard Brexit, they will return to Labour.
I keep saying to people: the Lib Dems need Tory voters, the people that voted for them in 2010 but either didn't vote in 2015 or voted for Cameron.
Wasn't there a graphic posted fairly recently that showed the LibDems getting significantly more support from 2017 Tories than 2017 Labour voters? Can anybody find it and re-post?
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
Great minds...
I was just looking at Putney. Does anyone have the split for the 2017 vote percentages for Inner and Outer London? And do we know what definition of Inner London YouGov use in their London poll?
Putney's more prone to flooding than Broxtowe. If that helps.
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
Really? The general consensus thus far has been that the major threat to the Tories in Putney was not from Labour, despite their excellent showing in 2017 when Justine Greening's majority was reduced from >10,000 to a highly marginal level of 1,500, but rather from the LibDems, who are showing such strength in the neighbouring constituencies of Wimbledon, Richmond, Twickenham, etc. Perhaps the Tories' best chance of retaining Putney will prove to be by Labour and the LDs destroying each others' chances.
My random guesses on polling in electoral calculus ended up with 2 lab gains from Con, Putney and Cities of London and Westminster, neither of which I would have picked as most likely gains. Odd.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
It must be hard being as perfect as you, all of the time.
It will be interesting to see if the broadband policy has any effect on the polls. It seems to have cut through, though I can't predict at this stage exactly what the impact is. Although there has been some polling (Yougov?) that suggests its popular, I think it could go one of two ways:
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
I can't accurately gauge the mood at the moment.
Aren't the Tories also promising lots of free stuff?
I refer to previous comments about the 2015 austerity debate, when Labour offered austerity-lite and the Tories offered austerity-heavy. People just voted for the real thing instead.
The Tories are offering a controlled increase in expenditure in priority areas. Labour are offering profligacy everywhere.
Tories are telling us what their priorities are. Labour are saying everything is a priority and if everything is then nothing is.
Tories are saying we have been through an exercise regime so can have a slice of cake. Labour are saying exercise was unnecessary and are offering a 13 course banquet.
The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
We're seeing signs of it again. A very poor response to the broadband offer, late response to the flooding (even Cameron managed that) and no response to the fire in London. More mistakes like this and the campaign will come unstuck.
There are also whispers about the Brexit deal, do we even know what is in it? Johnson doesn't seem to know. If the debate on Tuesday is any good, the deal will be exposed for the bollocks it is.
And Trump coming - knowing Trump he will stick his foot in it.
Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
Putney or Broxtowe might be the best chances of a Lab Gain from Con. I wouldn't back either though. If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
There are almost always seats that go the other way. Even in 1983, Labour made a few gains from the Conservatives.
Would it have been possible to identify Glasgow Cathcart, Liverpool Broadgreen or Birmingham Erdington prior to the election ?
In a way it might have been because Glasgow, Liverpool and Birmingham were three of the places hardest hit by the early 1980s recession, and also the 1981 riots.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
I dont care what either is like as a person if I felt they were of sound, reasonable politics. Personal morals are not totally irrelevant but can be very overplayed and it's pretty weak to go after either on that basis when theres better and more relevant reasons.
I'm probably very late on this, but I've just seen that Labour's estimate of the annual cost of running the broadband network was based on taking a 30 year NPV and dividing by 30.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.
Correct. Plus paid for by taxes on tech companies which (a) will not be consequence-less in their affect on British companies earning profits overseas; (b) are in direct contradiction to international tax rules; and (c) are apparently paying for everything else as well.
Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
Forget floods, fires, and free internet...could this be a big problem for the Tories?
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
It must be hard being as perfect as you, all of the time.
Didn't Corbyn divorce his wife because he didn't want his kid to go to independent school?
I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
One problem is that employers and workers who would have been able to find each other just fine will now have to pay for the services of a parasitical rent-seeking middleman who will either deal with all the bureaucracy of job offer letters before arrival etc, or if this process is too slow and/or restrictive, hire the worker themselves, then farm them out to the actual employer.
PS Overall immigration seems to be good for both immigrants and native workers, but I don't think what you say about advertising on UK job platforms proves there's no adverse effect on native workers because the job may have been fillable by a native with higher wages or better conditions.
This process is identical to that used for all other countries. When my wife got a job her she had to prove she was the most suitable candidate in the EU. Now all non-UK individuals will need to prove they are more qualified than a local.
The Tories seem triumphant again, one month out that this is a done deal, massive Tory majority coming in.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
I strongly disagree with that assessment. I've seen very few posters on here predict a "massive Tory majority." There has been a lot more uneasiness this time around.
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
The briefings coming out are the Tories are confident of a large majority, the Sun and others are saying Corbyn is finished, etc.
It's not exactly the same as 2017 but there is arrogance around.
This election is all to play for. I won't make any certain predictions but I will say I was one of the few to call 2017 right and I got 4 to 1 on no overall majority.
Erhhh no. He is definitely a Labour supporter (or was in the Blair days, and is married to a Labour Peer).
We used to get some tin foil types back in the day claim that his leanings influenced his polling / predictions, until quite rightly people pointed out that his partner at YouGov Shakespeare was a Tory.
1. Both leaders are clearly suspect, and not trusted by the public, probably increasingly so. There is clearly an opportunity for Swinson. This is what happened in the past when the LD's got more air time at elections
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
Objectively, that's what the polling is saying. I guess part of it might be that although each voter thinks Corbyn and Johnson are both shite, they generally think one or the other is *dangerous* and shite, and will vote for the one who is merely shite unless their seat is very clearly a shite vs LD two-horse race.
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...
Comments
Thanks for your answer. Regarding the above - the opposition parties have been happy to keep the CP limping along like a wounded animal. Maybe they will do so again?
Seems to me that the odds on a minority Conservative government (it doens`t matter if it`s short-lived), at a best-priced 9/1, are a bit on the generous side?
Loved that passage.
"This is a disparity that cannot endure."
I fear that Johnson will always be given the benefit of the doubt. It will always be someone else's fault. If the public do turn against him I would expect they will make up for their present indulgence by overreacting to the other extreme, and we would see a disparity in the other direction.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/11/15/duchess-sussex-sue-mail-sunday-campaign-lies/
Exactly what he said he would never do.
I reset my password as the existing password - if this gets posted it would appear that that has been accepted.
The political limb is pure guesswork, but I think there are only 3 outcomes: Tory win and Boris stays, Tory clearly don't win and Grand Alliance occurs for purposes of extension and Ref2 or (quite possible) a stalemate
Unless the FTPA has messed all that up too....
We need MRP soon - any ideas when we might get some?
Happened to me too. Seemed to fix things after a password reset.
I recently signed up to YouGov, will they ever poll me on voting intention?
The PM isn’t going to resign until he’s certain that a clear named replacement has been identified who can win a confidence vote, so if the numbers are very close or there are probable dissenters from within the new coalition, he’d probably wait for a confidence vote in himself first - which doesn’t oblige him to stand down, even if he loses it, until the success is identified or we get another election.
I answered honestly, I voted LD last time, and will do so again. The questions named candidates and the tactical runoff were LD vs Con. I am in Rutland and Melton, which includes some Leicester suburbs.
The only way of dealing with that situation is for the electorate to have Johnson, and to learn from that experience.
The policies he stands on have always been more popular than him.
Lib Dems doing their best to push Labour voters away - and become the centrist alternative Tory Party?
I think Tories at 7/2 in Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport is a good bet.
a) Mr Johnson's deal is exactly the same as Mrs May's deal;
b) Mr Johnson's deal is much worse for the UK than Mrs May's deal;
c) Mr Johnson's deal is much better for the UK than Mrs May's deal.
So what the deal is actually like seems to be an open question.
If you put a gun to my head and I had to pick one though - Putney.
We PBers must not forget that it was David's brilliant prescience in 2017 by which he identified the sudden change in the national mood, initially much scoffed at on here, but which proved absolutely spot on in anticipating the complete disappearance of a universally expected 100+ overall majority for the Tories to the actual result just a matter of a few days later in which they totally failed to achieve even the tiniest such majority.
2. The binary choice imposed by FPTP means the Liberal Democrats will be squeezed, as we saw in 2017.
These clearly contradict
Is it plausible that we continue to consider both leaders to be shite but they continue to squeeze the LD's? I assume this contradiction will show itself in turnout on the day
I would think that at this election, there’s a lot more of these seats than usual given all the party affiliation changes, as well as a fair few former MPs standing as independents only to collect their redundancy payment.
Their polling rise has come from Labour voters, who like Labour's other policies but don't like their Brexit policy.
As soon as the choice becomes between second referendum or hard Brexit, they will return to Labour.
I keep saying to people: the Lib Dems need Tory voters, the people that voted for them in 2010 but either didn't vote in 2015 or voted for Cameron.
Thank you for your earlier comments on colne valley btw.
I wonder how many of those students already own a tablet and/or laptop etc.
It's 10-9 to Raikkonen in qualifying so far.
1) Yay, free stuff! - Grabs a few votes back for Labour, probably in seats they are worried about losing. Could make the difference.
2) They've gone nuts - one of the risks of continually talking about profligate spending is that at some point it actually tips over the edge into looney tunes land and people think you're irresponsible.
A lot depends on what stage the electorate are at. Are they willing to think hey, we've put up with austerity politics for 9 years, it's time to vote for that party who are going to give me nice things, or are they still cautious over the economic impact of a Labour government.
I can't accurately gauge the mood at the moment.
I refer to previous comments about the 2015 austerity debate, when Labour offered austerity-lite and the Tories offered austerity-heavy. People just voted for the real thing instead.
I was just looking at Putney. Does anyone have the split for the 2017 vote percentages for Inner and Outer London? And do we know what definition of Inner London YouGov use in their London poll?
Perhaps the Tories' best chance of retaining Putney will prove to be by Labour and the LDs destroying each others' chances.
I've got a phone and a PC. Despite that, my employer has given me a (free) phone and laptop. That way, it has a level of control over what malware I download onto it, and more importantly means it only has to develop and support software for two platforms rather than a dozen.
Broadgreen - new notional constituency, Liverpool economic problems, both Liverpool Conservative MPs had chicken run
Erdington - Labour in 1979 but a notional Conservative after boundary changes, Conservatives doing well in Birmingham elections
I think Cathcart and Broadgreen were not unexpected but Erdington was.
Crewe and Nantwich was also notionally Conservative in 1979 and won by Labour in 1983 but again the Nantwich Conservative MP had chicken run.
I think it's probably the least risky decision they could have made and it could work. What it does do is leave the LDs a bit exposed on the Labour side, because what can they offer beyond stopping Brexit (which, although the Labour position is more nuanced, also presents a good chance of reaching that goal)?
In fairness, I think its more the Labour decisions that have impacted on Swinson other than anything she's done, although I think she has made an error in her 'cancel Brexit without a referendum' stance, because now all she's having to do is justify it. She should have committed to a second referendum and left it at that.
In the US, the majority of public schools use them for exactly this reason.
For example much of the comment was wrong - Corbyn to become PM and Conservatives to win Wakefield was wrong.
There were also few people who still expected a 100+ majority for the Conservatives at that point.
And what is always forgotten that there was another Herdson campaign report which was much more positive for the Conservatives the following day.
I do think you are right that there is a danger that in the election spending war people look at both parties and say "well, they're both going to spend money but those guys are going to spend more of it, we'll go with them."
Can anybody find it and re-post?
Labour are offering profligacy everywhere.
Tories are telling us what their priorities are.
Labour are saying everything is a priority and if everything is then nothing is.
Tories are saying we have been through an exercise regime so can have a slice of cake.
Labour are saying exercise was unnecessary and are offering a 13 course banquet.
This is the exact level of arrogance that undid May. At this point in 2017, May was still on for a huge majority and Corbyn was seen as useless.
We're seeing signs of it again. A very poor response to the broadband offer, late response to the flooding (even Cameron managed that) and no response to the fire in London. More mistakes like this and the campaign will come unstuck.
There are also whispers about the Brexit deal, do we even know what is in it? Johnson doesn't seem to know. If the debate on Tuesday is any good, the deal will be exposed for the bollocks it is.
And Trump coming - knowing Trump he will stick his foot in it.
Met detectives investigate electoral fraud allegations after claims Tories 'induced Brexit Party candidates to stand down' as Ann Widdecombe says she will 'swear on the Bible' she was offered top job
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7692491/Met-probes-electoral-fraud-claims-Tories-induced-Brexit-Party-candidates-stand-down.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7691905/Jeremy-Corbyn-face-landslide-election-defeat-says-pollster.html
Correct. Plus paid for by taxes on tech companies which (a) will not be consequence-less in their affect on British companies earning profits overseas; (b) are in direct contradiction to international tax rules; and (c) are apparently paying for everything else as well.
Labour lead there 30%to 26% over the Tories. The most important issue was the NHS 52% , then Brexit on 39% .
That was conducted 11th to 13th of November before the NHS figures came out .
FWIW, my current thinking is we are in the range of hung parliament to majority of 30 or so for the Tories. If the Tories do win a majority, I can't see it climbing much further than that.
My best guess at the moment - Tory majority of 10-15.
If Labour can make this an NHS election, the Tories will lose.
However much it pains me to say this - and I hope it doesn't happen - an NHS crisis during the election will undo the Tories.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-opinion-polls-tracker-tory-support-hits-40-per-cent-as-lead-over-labour-widens-a4288146.html
Their poll of polls:
Con 40%
Lab 29%
LD 16%
BRX 7%
Grn 3%
It's not exactly the same as 2017 but there is arrogance around.
This election is all to play for. I won't make any certain predictions but I will say I was one of the few to call 2017 right and I got 4 to 1 on no overall majority.
We used to get some tin foil types back in the day claim that his leanings influenced his polling / predictions, until quite rightly people pointed out that his partner at YouGov Shakespeare was a Tory.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tories-losing-the-media-labour-policy-winning?ref=hpsplash
We probably shouldn't rule out the possibility that the polling is wrong though. It's particularly weird how all the pollsters are herding on 15%-17%; I wonder if they tend to herd when they're scared their numbers are wrong...