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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,559

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    Jason said:

    It's interesting, isn't it, to compare the different mindset and attitudes between Labour and Tory reactions to opinion polls. It seems to me that Labour supporters manage to stay relatively chirpy, even polling at just 30% after nine years of opposition and having the worst leader in their history. Yet I often see Tory supporters wobble at the slightest narrowing of a gap in a single opinion poll. The Tory vote has held up remarkably well considering how the campaign started, and even more remarkably, so has the Labour vote. But Labour are 10 points behind, not the Tories.

    Labour's only strategy now is to present a blank cheque to the public and they'd be happy bankrupting the country to get Boris out of office and/or to stop Brexit.

    That's logical. The Labourites (those supportive of or at least sanguine about the Revolution) are relieved not to be doing worse. The Tories, and more broadly anyone wanting to keep the Far Left away from power, is frightened of a repeat of 2017. I'm in the anti-Labour camp and am utterly convinced that they're going to get close enough to 2017 to have a real chance of getting into office at the head of a wobbly anti-Brexit league, and I'm going to keep thinking that until it actually happens. Or doesn't. Except that it will happen. Because it not happening would be too good to be true, and if something looks too good to be true it usually is.
    Awferfucksakes, are you my twin? Do we share a brain? Stop repeating my nightmares back to me, would you!

    Anyway, the polls didn't turn out quite as badly as we feared today (thank you YouGov!), and every day that happens is a win in my book.
    There are still nearly five weeks to go. Give Labour time. The recovery is inevitable.
    Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
    Yes. Sorry.
    The dynamics are so very different this time around. Don’t assume lightening will strike twice for Labour.








    Don't assume underestimating Corbyn for a 4th time even though the first 3 times didnt work out will work out any better.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,035
    kyf_100 said:

    EPG said:

    Politicians de-select candidates with offensive records because they think it is a net vote loser. If people already know you, that might be different, but most people don't have a weekly TV show like Donald Trump or Hugo Chávez. This far out from an election, the main beneficiary of offensive-Tweet-resignations is a rival from one's own party who gets to be a candidate. So I would assume they are sources of many of these stories - whereas the election opponent would rather the offensive candidate be in situ first.

    Hmm.

    But take that Conservative candidate who said people on the TV show Benefits Street should be "put down".

    If the evil, heartless Tories are as evil and heartless as the left claim, then surely potential voters will agree with the sentiment of that statement (i.e. people on benefits are horrible and lazy, rather than literally require extermination).

    The point is I don't think the candidate was really calling for a cull of the poor, but surely that kind of confected outrage doesn't do a damn thing to put off potential voters.
    I'd certainly be less likely to vote for someone who published an opinion that people on benefits were horrible and lazy. It would suggest appalling judgement. Related, some of these stories are because the ex-candidate can't guarantee the publication in point was a unique "moment of madness".
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    Jason said:

    It's interesting, isn't it, to compare the different mindset and attitudes between Labour and Tory reactions to opinion polls. It seems to me that Labour supporters manage to stay relatively chirpy, even polling at just 30% after nine years of opposition and having the worst leader in their history. Yet I often see Tory supporters wobble at the slightest narrowing of a gap in a single opinion poll. The Tory vote has held up remarkably well considering how the campaign started, and even more remarkably, so has the Labour vote. But Labour are 10 points behind, not the Tories.

    Labour's only strategy now is to present a blank cheque to the public and they'd be happy bankrupting the country to get Boris out of office and/or to stop Brexit.

    That's logical. The Labourites (those supportive of or at least sanguine about the Revolution) are relieved not to be doing worse. The Tories, and more broadly anyone wanting to keep the Far Left away from power, is frightened of a repeat of 2017. I'm in the anti-Labour camp and am utterly convinced that they're going to get close enough to 2017 to have a real chance of getting into office at the head of a wobbly anti-Brexit league, and I'm going to keep thinking that until it actually happens. Or doesn't. Except that it will happen. Because it not happening would be too good to be true, and if something looks too good to be true it usually is.
    Awferfucksakes, are you my twin? Do we share a brain? Stop repeating my nightmares back to me, would you!

    Anyway, the polls didn't turn out quite as badly as we feared today (thank you YouGov!), and every day that happens is a win in my book.
    There are still nearly five weeks to go. Give Labour timeooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
    Yes. Sorry.
    The dynamics are so very different this time around. Don’t assume lightening will strike twice for Labour.

    That strange machine noise in the distance. That's the Labour androids marching over the hill. I can almost make out their eerie, mindless, hollow cries, echoing in unison through the cold, dark night...

    "I'm voting Labour cos I've always voted Labour. I'm voting Labour cos I've always voted Labour. I'm voting Labour cos I've always voted Labour. I'm voting Labour cos I've always voted Labour..."

    Oh, the humanity!
    And anyway. Androids might have an aversion to going to vote in the cold, dark and rain.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Jonathan said:

    TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday

    Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face

    TBP=CON, time to quit again?
    He should have taken that seat in the Lords while he had a chance.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,035
    I assume bad weather has a big effect on turnout because it discourages high-turnout groups more than low-turnout groups, purely as a matter of weighted averages. Intuitively, one could imagine that it discourages old people more than young people. I wouldn't normally try to come up with a hypothesis on the spot at 0030 in the morning, but it may dissuade old people more than young people (i.e. the ones who go out to vote), walkers to polling stations more than drivers, people working in emergency services... some of whom are high-turnout groups, but others, maybe not.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    Jason said:

    It's interesting, isn't it, to compare the different mindset and attitudes between Labour and Tory reactions to opinion polls. It seems to me that Labour supporters manage to stay relatively chirpy, even polling at just 30% after nine years of opposition and having the worst leader in their history. Yet I often see Tory supporters wobble at the slightest narrowing of a gap in a single opinion poll. The Tory vote has held up remarkably well considering how the campaign started, and even more remarkably, so has the Labour vote. But Labour are 10 points behind, not the Tories.

    Labour's only strategy now is to present a blank cheque to the public and they'd be happy bankrupting the country to get Boris out of office and/or to stop Brexit.

    That's logical. The Labourites (those supportive of or at least sanguine about the Revolution) are relieved not to be doing worse. The Tories, and more broadly anyone wanting to keep the Far Left away from power, is frightened of a repeat of 2017. I'm in the anti-Labour camp and am utterly convinced that they're going to get close enough to 2017 to have a real chance of getting into office at the head of a wobbly anti-Brexit league, and I'm going to keep thinking that until it actually happens. Or doesn't. Except that it will happen. Because it not happening would be too good to be true, and if something looks too good to be true it usually is.
    Awferfucksakes, are you my twin? Do we share a brain? Stop repeating my nightmares back to me, would you!

    Anyway, the polls didn't turn out quite as badly as we feared today (thank you YouGov!), and every day that happens is a win in my book.
    There are still nearlooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
    Yes. Sorry.
    The dynamics are so very different this time around. Don’t assume lightening will strike twice for Labour.








    Don't assume underestimating Corbyn for a 4th time even though the first 3 times didnt work out will work out any better.
    He’s older. More tired. He’s now known, as is his apparent weaknesses.

    Last time he was a novelty. The new kid on the block. No longer.

    He spends his time preaching to his choir. That’s it.

    Look at the satisfaction ratings. Hardly those of a man beloved of the public.

    You keep saying not to underestimate Corbyn. You underestimate Johnson. Only one of those two men has won a popular vote to a position of elected power. Twice. Against a radical leftist.

    A clue. That man wasn’t Corbyn.

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    Jason said:

    It's interesting, isn't it, to compare the different mindset and attitudes between Labour and Tory reactions to opinion polls. It seems to me that Labour supporters manage to stay relatively chirpy, even polling at just 30% after nine years of opposition and having the worst leader in their history. Yet I often see Tory supporters wobble at the slightest narrowing of a gap in a single opinion poll. The Tory vote has held up remarkably well considering how the campaign started, and even more remarkably, so has the Labour vote. But Labour are 10 points behind, not the Tories.

    Labour's only strategy now is to present a blank cheque to the public and they'd be happy bankrupting the country to get Boris out of office and/or to stop Brexit.

    That's logical. The Labourites (those supportive of or at least sanguine about the Revolution) are relieved not to be doing worse. The Tories, and more broadly anyone wanting to keep the Far Left away from power, is frightened of a repeat of 2017. I'm in the anti-Labour camp and am utterly convinced that they're going to get close enough to 2017 to have a real chance of getting into office at the head of a wobbly anti-Brexit league, and I'm going to keep thinking that until it actually happens. Or doesn't. Except that it will happen. Because it not happening would be too good to be true, and if something looks too good to be true it usually is.
    Awferfucksakes, are you my twin? Do we share a brain? Stop repeating my nightmares back to me, would you!

    Anyway, the polls didn't turn out quite as badly as we feared today (thank you YouGov!), and every day that happens is a win in my book.
    There are still nearly five weeks to go. Give Labour time. The recovery is inevitable.
    Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
    Yes. Sorry.
    The dynamics are so very different this time around. Don’t assume lightening will strike twice for Labour.








    Don't assume underestimating Corbyn for a 4th time even though the first 3 times didnt work out will work out any better.
    Nonsense. It’s not corbyn it’s in spite of him. Labour tribe voting of the last 20 years + incumbent party of 10 years rubbish for the last 4 + fear brexit = TEN points higher if it wasn’t for the subtracting ten cause Corbyn.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    On topic.

    No. I dont think so because aren’t the areas where Labour showing the biggest falls not also the areas where previously we laughed at them for stacking votes where they didn’t need them?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    edited November 2019
    AndyJS said:

    The boffins on the VoteUK discussion forum believe that Hastings and Rye will be a Labour gain from Conservative.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1NzDdro77WgglG7dhlE6c8ORK6xjWOfx0i1L5FUkPk/edit#gid=0
    http://vote-2012.proboards.com

    Like the Vale of Glamorgan in 1992.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I still believe the Labour 'drone' vote will appear on the day as it has always done.

    Should it not however you have got to wonder what the longer term implications are of a lifelong voting habit being broken.

    Once you've done something once...

  • The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    SunnyJim said:

    I still believe the Labour 'drone' vote will appear on the day as it has always done.

    Should it not however you have got to wonder what the longer term implications are of a lifelong voting habit being broken.

    Once you've done something once...

    Just ask former Labour voters in Scotland
  • Don't assume underestimating Corbyn for a 4th time even though the first 3 times didnt work out will work out any better.

    First time he won a Labour electorate not a General electorate.

    Second time he won a Labour electorate versus 'Owen Who?' on a reduced share.

    Third time, first time facing a General Election, he lost.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Well the Tories are the natural party of government.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    SunnyJim said:

    I still believe the Labour 'drone' vote will appear on the day as it has always done.

    Should it not however you have got to wonder what the longer term implications are of a lifelong voting habit being broken.

    Once you've done something once...

    So we’re to believe there are no drone Tories then !
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    EPG said:

    I assume bad weather has a big effect on turnout because it discourages high-turnout groups more than low-turnout groups, purely as a matter of weighted averages. Intuitively, one could imagine that it discourages old people more than young people. I wouldn't normally try to come up with a hypothesis on the spot at 0030 in the morning, but it may dissuade old people more than young people (i.e. the ones who go out to vote), walkers to polling stations more than drivers, people working in emergency services... some of whom are high-turnout groups, but others, maybe not.

    I think you have it all wrong. Bad weather is likelier to stop people who are time-poor from voting. Working parents of young children, shift workers, etc. Pensioners can sit and wait all day for the rain to stop and head out during a break in the weather.

    That is, if there's any affect at all. I doubt there is, but if there is it'll be that way around.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,826
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:



    SunnyJim said:

    I still believe the Labour 'drone' vote will appear on the day as it has always done.

    Should it not however you have got to wonder what the longer term implications are of a lifelong voting habit being broken.

    Once you've done something once...

    So we’re to believe there are no drone Tories then !
    Both main parties have about 30% drone vote when it comes to GE. It is why I just don't believe these polls that have Labour on 22% are going to turn out to be correct.

    The Tories even in the wilderness years got 30-31% and the worst Labour have done in what 40-50 years is 29% under Gordo.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Correct!
  • Noo said:

    EPG said:

    I assume bad weather has a big effect on turnout because it discourages high-turnout groups more than low-turnout groups, purely as a matter of weighted averages. Intuitively, one could imagine that it discourages old people more than young people. I wouldn't normally try to come up with a hypothesis on the spot at 0030 in the morning, but it may dissuade old people more than young people (i.e. the ones who go out to vote), walkers to polling stations more than drivers, people working in emergency services... some of whom are high-turnout groups, but others, maybe not.

    I think you have it all wrong. Bad weather is likelier to stop people who are time-poor from voting. Working parents of young children, shift workers, etc. Pensioners can sit and wait all day for the rain to stop and head out during a break in the weather.

    That is, if there's any affect at all. I doubt there is, but if there is it'll be that way around.
    Even if the weather is bad, those oldies when they have somewhere to go...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7664323/Mobility-scooter-user-powers-rising-floods-Sheffield.html
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Weather effects on turnout are minimal but generally that’s because they’re not normally held in winter .

    It would be typical though for the UK to get hit by some wild weather on that particular day . If some freak blizzard turns up then that could cause a huge issue especially in more rural areas .

    We might see an increase in postal voting as people might be more concerned about some dramatic weather on the day .
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited November 2019
    blueblue said:

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Correct!
    The Conservatives are unrecognisable compared to even four years ago. Fiscally loose, willing to sacrifice free trade, gambling the union on a pipe dream, unconcerned about rule of law. Yet a lot of the same people who voted for them then will vote for them this time. Zombies.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Correct!
    The Conservatives are unrecognisable compared to even four years ago. Fiscally loose, willing to sacrifice free trade, gambling the union on a pipe dream, unconcerned about rule of law. Yet a lot of the same people who voted for them then will vote for them this time. Zombies.
    You mean populist?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    timmo said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Correct!
    The Conservatives are unrecognisable compared to even four years ago. Fiscally loose, willing to sacrifice free trade, gambling the union on a pipe dream, unconcerned about rule of law. Yet a lot of the same people who voted for them then will vote for them this time. Zombies.
    You mean populist?
    I don't like using the word populist too much because it seems to mean radically different things from one person to the next. The Conservatives have certainly adopted populist rhetoric, but I'm less sure their policies can be so described.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Looking at the Sunday papers it seems the msm are going to brutalize Labour compared to the press they were given in 2017.

    Circulations are falling but the papers are still very influential in the demographic cohorts most likely to vote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    These are the results of the 1979 general election which never actually happened. They're the notional results of 1979 on the new boundaries first contested in 1983. Many of today's constituencies are still heavily based on these new seats from 1983.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/notional79.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Female Labour MPs demand party bosses block candidate who shared Theresa May gun picture"

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107873/excl-female-labour-mps-demand-party-bosses-block
  • But in hindsight, details in the December 2018 slide presentation reveal serious holes in the original evaluation of the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight-control software.

    Equally troubling, despite clear indications from the previous month’s Lion Air tragedy that the pilots had not responded as Boeing’s safety analyses assumed, the presentation reiterated the same assumptions and never approached the question of whether the MAX should still be flying.


    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/after-lion-air-crash-boeing-doubled-down-on-faulty-737-max-assumptions/
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,036
    AndyJS said:

    The boffins on the VoteUK discussion forum believe that Hastings and Rye will be a Labour gain from Conservative.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1NzDdro77WgglG7dhlE6c8ORK6xjWOfx0i1L5FUkPk/edit#gid=0
    http://vote-2012.proboards.com

    There's a few there I disagree with (with my predicted winner):
    Con Battersea, Wimbledon, Workington, Hastings, Guildford, Aberdeen S, Brecon, Gower
    LD N Norfolk, Southport, Eastleigh, Lewes, N Devon, Wells,
    SNP Coatbridge, E Lothian, Gordon,
    Lab Portsmouth S, Alyn
    Ind E Devon
    Alliance Belfast E

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,036
    Thanks to greatkingrat for comparing the members' predictions on the Vote UK forum ("poll") with the latest betting ("odds") and finding some differences of opinion:

    Birmingham Northfield
    Poll - Lab 14, Con 8
    Odds - Con 1.66, Lab 2.1

    Bristol North West
    Poll - Lab 31, Con 8, LD 1
    Odds - Con 1.72, Lab 2.25, LD 7.0

    Cardiff North
    Poll - Lab 26, Con 4
    Odds - Con 1.72, Lab 2.0

    Croydon Central
    Poll - Lab 23, Con 6
    Odds - Con 1.66, Lab 2.1

    Dewsbury
    Poll - Lab 14, Con 10
    Odds - Con 1.5, Lab 2.5

    Guildford
    Poll - LD 23, Con 11
    Odds - Con 1.44, LD 2.5, Ind 17.0

    Lewes
    Poll - Con 22, LD 17
    Odds - LD 1.44, Con 2.5

    North Norfolk
    Poll - Con 16, LD 11
    Odds - LD 1.22, Con 4.0

    Southport
    Poll - Con 21, Lab 10, LD 9
    Odds - LD 1.36, Con 4.33, Lab 7.0

    Wimbledon
    Poll - LD 31, Con 30, Lab 3
    Odds - Con 1.44, LD 2.62, Lab 17.0

    Workington
    Poll - Lab 21, Con 17
    Odds - Con 1.44, Lab 2.62

    Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/12619/general-election-2019?page=83#ixzz64q4n0z2R
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,036
    Here's my spreadsheet of the seats I currently think will change hands (compared with 2017). https://ukelect.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/swing-seats.xls
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Noo said:

    timmo said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Correct!
    The Conservatives are unrecognisable compared to even four years ago. Fiscally loose, willing to sacrifice free trade, gambling the union on a pipe dream, unconcerned about rule of law. Yet a lot of the same people who voted for them then will vote for them this time. Zombies.
    You mean populist?
    I don't like using the word populist too much because it seems to mean radically different things from one person to the next. The Conservatives have certainly adopted populist rhetoric, but I'm less sure their policies can be so described.
    Noo said:

    timmo said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    The Labour drone vote; the Labour tribal vote; the Labour client vote.

    The Conservative "carefully consider all aspects of policy before concluding that on balance, the Tories offer the best solution, just like at every other election since the party was founded" vote.

    Correct!
    The Conservatives are unrecognisable compared to even four years ago. Fiscally loose, willing to sacrifice free trade, gambling the union on a pipe dream, unconcerned about rule of law. Yet a lot of the same people who voted for them then will vote for them this time. Zombies.
    You mean populist?
    I don't like using the word populist too much because it seems to mean radically different things from one person to the next. The Conservatives have certainly adopted populist rhetoric, but I'm less sure their policies can be so described.
    Labour's spending is based on an economic plan. Eyewatering, yes, wrong headed, yes IMO, but clearly an economic plan.

    The Tory spending is more cynical, I think, based on a populist message.

    "What's the message going to be, Dom?"

    "We'll get Brexit done so we can invest in our NHS, schools and the police."

    "How much will we need to spend to make that look a plausible message?"

    "£x billion"

    "Then that's what we shall spend"

    "What else?"

    "Boris - one hospital, once school and one police station a day, every day, ad nauseum"

    Cynical, populist, but IMO accidentally what the country needs after the tories over-doubled-down on austerity after 2015.



    Meanwhile, fabulous batting for New Zealand.

  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Dadge said:

    Here's my spreadsheet of the seats I currently think will change hands (compared with 2017). https://ukelect.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/swing-seats.xls

    Great stuff Dadge.

    I enjoy unlikely holds and have had some historical success.

    What constituencies are NHN and NHS?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dadge said:

    Here's my spreadsheet of the seats I currently think will change hands (compared with 2017). https://ukelect.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/swing-seats.xls

    Thanks Dadge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984
    New thread
This discussion has been closed.