politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.
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I was, of course, talking of the perception rather than the practicalities.Beibheirli_C said:
Oh yes. That is all that needs to be done. Just a minor detail for the next 7 to 10 years....
The Tories will be delighted with ongoing challenging negotiations with the EU because there will be zero electoral mileage for political parties offering anything other than a muscular response to the EU.
'Vote for us and we will sell you out to the EU' isn't going to be a popular election slogan in 2024, 2029 or any other year for that matter.0 -
Point being Boris would only need 322 for a majority. Assuming SF win 7 seats.kle4 said:
Why would they change tack now?Sunil_Prasannan said:
SF would still officially boycott Parliament?kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
Debatable. Our King at the time, James I , had fought on behalf of Henry V in France.StuartDickson said:
Not within the power of the Sun to “decide”. They put filth in the public domain, then anybody has the right to show them up. Journalists need to be scrutinisedFrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
“We”? The Scots were allies of the French.DavidL said:
How could we possibly have won Agincourt without them?TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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Not stopping me having the wobbles. Canada is f##king cold this time of year.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193284497011302401
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Well I think about half the country wanted to keep their EU citizenship (including me).NorthCadboll said:
I don't wish her any physical harm. I would just throw her out of the country and revoke her citizenship since she is clearly so desperate to be an EU citizen.CatMan said:
If it makes you feel any better, she regularly gets death threats and needs bodyguards when she appears at public gatherings.NorthCadboll said:If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.
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Mysticrose said:
Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.tyson said:
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.
Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....0 -
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It's not worth it. Brexiteers are all completely clueless on the details of how Brexit actually works. You'd have more luck discussing the finer points of nineteenth century Russian literature with your dog.Beibheirli_C said:
"... just the administrative loose ends to be tied up"SunnyJim said:
Leaver angst is driven by the possibility of remainers overturning the referendum result.Beibheirli_C said:
Anne - If Boris gets a majority it may solve the current Brexit problem, but as I used to tell people when I was in the consulting business, when you solve your number one problem, you promote your number two problem.
Once we are technically "out" we still be in until at least 2021 and I am not sure how many Leavers have realised that. Freedom of Movement will still apply. It will at that point that many will go "They can still come here even though we are out?" and there will be more political drama.
I am unsure if Johnson's govt will actually last very long.
Once the answer to the question "Can Brexit be stopped?" is an unequivocal "No" then that will be considered the battle won with just the administrative loose ends to be tied up.
Oh yes. That is all that needs to be done. Just a minor detail for the next 7 to 10 years....1 -
Still you could claw a lot of it back with £10 off a £40 spend at LIDL- GERMANS!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Worth reading 'Final Cut' by Steven Bach if you are interested in Deer Hunter. About the Making of Cimino's Heaven's Gate. One of the best and funniest film books I've read.tyson said:
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
You watch the film again, and you think what a pile of shit....despite the first hour being one of the most most brilliant pieces of cinema.....0 -
The last four polls have the Conservatives 11% ahead, on average. That's pretty consistent.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-471 -
Point being he could pass things, as I stated, but you cannot claim an official parliamentary majority without a majority of the seats, you won't find bookies paying out on 323 seats.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Point being Boris would only need 322 for a majority. Assuming SF win 7 seats.kle4 said:
Why would they change tack now?Sunil_Prasannan said:
SF would still officially boycott Parliament?kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-47
After all, with SF and Speaker and Deputy Speakers the bar was even lower than 322 for an effective majority, but that doesn't make an official parliamentary majority change from 326.
It's an ego thing. Boris would be incredibly annoyed to not achieve a majority, even if he could still pass things.
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I know it's already been posted, but here it is again anyway!
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193285239327641601?s=200 -
I have never been in a lidl.bigjohnowls said:
Still you could claw a lot of it back with £10 off a £40 spend at LIDL- GERMANS!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Shes going for the Leadership none of this Deputy craprottenborough said:1 -
You think she wants Labour to lose, so she can usurp Corbyn?!bigjohnowls said:
Shes going for the Leadership none of this Deputy craprottenborough said:0 -
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
Certainly how I read it.bigjohnowls said:
Shes going for the Leadership none of this Deputy craprottenborough said:0 -
I'm so brilliant that everyone wants me to run, which I will graciously do but can't admit it yet.rottenborough said:
There you are, even shorter statement.3 -
The scandal over Boris Johnson’s friendship with technology entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri was reignited on Saturday after the Observer revealed that the independent police watchdog has delayed its announcement on whether the PM should face an investigation into possible criminal misconduct until after the election.
The decision prompted fury from Westminster politicians and London assembly members who said it appeared that a ruling had been “suppressed” in order to protect Johnson from potentially damaging headlines at a crucial stage of the election campaign.
In a private meeting held before parliament was dissolved last week, the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) officials agreed not to announce whether they were going to investigate “possible criminality” over allegations about a conflict of interest in Johnson’s dealings while mayor of London with US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri until after the election.
Sources close to the IOPC investigation said the watchdog was on the verge of announcing its decision on whether it was proceeding with a criminal investigation.
The IOPC was tasked by the Greater London Authority with assessing whether criminal charges should be brought because of the then-mayor’s responsibility for London’s policing.
It is alleged Arcuri received favourable treatment due to her friendship with Johnson, including receiving large sums of public money for her technology firms.
The offence of misconduct in public office carries a maximum term of life imprisonment. Johnson has denied any impropriety.
Jon Trickett, shadow Cabinet Office minister, said: “This is incredible. It’s a suppression of information which the public is entitled to have. Given the fact we’re in a general election there should be maximum transparency.”
He added. “This decision must be reversed immediately.”
Caroline Pidgeon, a Lib Dem member of the London assembly’s oversight committee, said the delay raised the possibility of Downing Street contact with the IOPC before its decision. “It raises questions over how independent the IOPC really is and whether the prime minister’s lawyers have been exerting undue pressure,” she said.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/boris-johnson-jennifer-arcuri-iopc-delay-announcement-investigation?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Farage has blown it!
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Gallagher has a fascinating career arc. Editor of the Telegraph, then dep ed of the Mail, then editor of the Sun. I'm presuming the Sunday Sport is next in line.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Gallagher's wanted to be able to direct traffic to The Sun's website.OblitusSumMe said:
Have they given a reason?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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Prompting or not prompting?CatMan said:0 -
Yes, but there are levels of failure. Everyone else also failed to win league, but for some it was more of a failure, and for others failing to do so was less of a failure than others, because it would have been so much harder for them to succeed.matt said:
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
David Cameron took the Conservatives from Opposition into Government, do you honestly think the Tories finished second in 2010?matt said:
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-47
Also you analogy is pretty crap, Liverpool became the Champions of Europe last season, for the sixth time.0 -
Yeah but he did end up becoming PM and forming a government, so he didn't end up second did he? He won the PL, just some of the minor players were loaned from another club.matt said:
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
Pah...Labour should be 25 pts ahead on the NHS.. and its only one issue.nico67 said:An interesting result in the Panelbase . It showed Labour now ahead of the Tories on the NHS by 7 points . Regardless of whether there’s any real concern regarding the NHS and a US trade deal the fear alone could help Labour.
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I thought you were an anti-Brexit kinda guy?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-47
In which case you celebrating Cameron's majority is like a turkey saying "I cannot get over the wondrous beauty of that event in a Bethlehem stable all those centuries ago..."
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I got my £10 off £40 voucher yesterday will be in there before the midweek deadline.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have never been in a lidl.bigjohnowls said:
Still you could claw a lot of it back with £10 off a £40 spend at LIDL- GERMANS!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:
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The Panelbase poll this evening is producing very similar seat numbers as the YouGov regional poll yesterday when you put it through the seat calculators. (In fact it's putting the Tories slightly higher at 391 seats compared to 374 with the YouGov regional poll).0
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I think you're taking it and yourself a little too seriously. It's a film. It's rather good at portraying the human cost in 4 ordinary American lives. At the time it came out, 1978, that was probably a message worth telling.tyson said:Mysticrose said:
Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.tyson said:
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.
Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
But, yeah, if you want a great version of what the American War (as it's called over there) was all about then the Ken Burns and Lynn Novick 18-hour ten episode series is a masterpiece.0 -
People only believe the watchdog is independent when it does what they want or delivers the outcome they want, shocker. I bet Boris's people were saying the same things as those outraged by the watchdog's decision when it was suggested it had a role at all.TheScreamingEagles said:The scandal over Boris Johnson’s friendship with technology entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri was reignited on Saturday after the Observer revealed that the independent police watchdog has delayed its announcement on whether the PM should face an investigation into possible criminal misconduct until after the election.
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Don't knowSquareRoot said:
Prompting or not prompting?CatMan said:
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1193285878212415495?s=200 -
Not as extreme as their 1948 headlineFrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Dave became Premier in 2010!matt said:
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
That's looking like a LOT of Brexit Party lost deposits.....CatMan said:I know it's already been posted, but here it is again anyway!
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193285239327641601?s=200 -
I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....rottenborough said:
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Labour spending spree bad, Tory spending spree and hard Brexit good...rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962
Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.1 -
It will be the wrong type of electorate, they will never accept that they are wrong. At least Foot got ousted post 83, I fear that the Labour Party as we knew it has probably gone.tyson said:
I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....rottenborough said:1 -
Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...0
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I don't think it would be missed frankly if Johnson were not the alternative.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
It will be the wrong type of electorate, they will never accept that they are wrong. At least Foot got ousted post 83, I fear that the Labour Party as we knew it has probably gone.tyson said:
I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....rottenborough said:0 -
I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.0
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What do they care? They're trying to achieve the prevention of fake Brexit...by achieving Remain instead. Deposits lost won't be the concern. More power to them, it works for me.MarqueeMark said:
That's looking like a LOT of Brexit Party lost deposits.....CatMan said:I know it's already been posted, but here it is again anyway!
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193285239327641601?s=200 -
How it is being adopted by lots of american states?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
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TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday
Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face0 -
The Tories are also headed in an upward direction. I think they may be averaging 40% now for the first time in a long time.Black_Rook said:Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...
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The cost of a Corbyn government isnt just the money they are planning to spend.Foxy said:
Labour spending spree bad, Tory spending spree and hard Brexit good...rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962
Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.0 -
Oh good grief. The Apocalypse is upon us.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
I shall go to bed and hope it passes me by.
Good night.0 -
I think they're stuck at 30% or so.Black_Rook said:Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...
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Phrasing.Big_G_NorthWales said:TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday
Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face0 -
Lab Deputy Leader?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
Lay Pidcock, she is losing her seat.1 -
What is that when it’s at home?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
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Bit harsh on Phil, some of his medals are for almost-getting-killed-by-the-enemy stuff. Tbf Edward may have run some almost-getting-killed-by-your-own-side risks.ydoethur said:
Prince Philip once met a Brazilian general in Rio on a state visit. He expressed curiosity about the large number of medals said general was wearing, and got the answer, 'I won them in the war.'TheScreamingEagles said:
'I didn't know Brazil was in the war that long,' joked Philip.
'Well, at least I didn't get them for marrying my wife,' snapped the General.0 -
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
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Not a proportional system, I'm afraid...TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
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Man City didn't fail to win the league.kle4 said:
Yes, but there are levels of failure. Everyone else also failed to win league, but for some it was more of a failure, and for others failing to do so was less of a failure than others, because it would have been so much harder for them to succeed.matt said:
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
Tangentially, why I'm a huge fan of the Oxford comma.ozymandias said:
Phrasing.Big_G_NorthWales said:TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday
Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face
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Any other prominent chicken runs?TheScreamingEagles said:Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1193283094993932289
Though Eastleigh went pretty darn safe looking in 2017 despite its LD past.0 -
RespiteBlack_Rook said:
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
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They ought to have sent her away with a flea in her ear.TheScreamingEagles said:Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/11932830949939322890 -
TBP=CON, time to quit again?Big_G_NorthWales said:TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday
Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face0 -
It will become very clear tomorrow, no spoilers.Black_Rook said:
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm delighted to announce tomorrow afternoon's thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.
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Claim it was a moral victory.tyson said:
I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....rottenborough said:0 -
Pedantry at its finest. I actually considered putting 'Everyone else bar City' also failed, but thought I'd leave it unspoken, more fool me.initforthemoney said:
Man City didn't fail to win the league.kle4 said:
Yes, but there are levels of failure. Everyone else also failed to win league, but for some it was more of a failure, and for others failing to do so was less of a failure than others, because it would have been so much harder for them to succeed.matt said:
Failure is failure. To take an apposite example, Liverpool FC did quite well in the Premier League last year. They were still second,TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, David Cameron started from a much lower base, fewer than 200 MPs, he gained more Tory MPs in one go in the last century than anyone else.matt said:
Cameron failed first time despite facing an open goal. No doubt you would be in favour of giving Mr Johnson another chance in that circumstance,TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-47
0 -
0
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No way, the homeward procession of the robo...brand loyalty vote continues.Sean_F said:
I think they're stuck at 30% or so.Black_Rook said:Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...
To clarify, if you were to be proven right then nothing would delight me more. Except for the Labour numbers starting to head downwards again, of course.0 -
MoS poll is bad news for Tories. They don't want their voters to think it is all going to be ok and not bother applying for those postal votes now.1
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I am so naive at times !!!!!!ozymandias said:
Phrasing.Big_G_NorthWales said:TBP tanking in tonights polls and Farage has pulled out of Sophy on Sunday
Makes you wonder if Farage may do an about face1 -
I've never seen a chicken-run like this when no boundary changes have taken place. Surprised they selected her.kle4 said:
Any other prominent chicken runs?TheScreamingEagles said:Eastleigh falling to the yellow peril?
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1193283094993932289
Though Eastleigh went pretty darn safe looking in 2017 despite its LD past.0 -
It is v. good. I'm all aquiver to see Burns' series on Country & Western.Mysticrose said:
I think you're taking it and yourself a little too seriously. It's a film. It's rather good at portraying the human cost in 4 ordinary American lives. At the time it came out, 1978, that was probably a message worth telling.tyson said:Mysticrose said:
Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.tyson said:
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.
Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
But, yeah, if you want a great version of what the American War (as it's called over there) was all about then the Ken Burns and Lynn Novick 18-hour ten episode series is a masterpiece.0 -
30% is the Labour loyalist vote.Black_Rook said:
No way, the homeward procession of the robo...brand loyalty vote continues.Sean_F said:
I think they're stuck at 30% or so.Black_Rook said:Well, I thought Labour would be averaging 30% this weekend, and so far we've had two 29s which isn't too wide of the mark (I'm not counting the 30% from Panelbase yesterday, since that might be regarded as cheating, but it's satisfying nonetheless.) So, let's see if there are any more polls tonight before making a formal prediction, but I reckon the Labour mean will be up another couple of points or so by next weekend. They're only headed one way from now on...
To clarify, if you were to be proven right then nothing would delight me more. Except for the Labour numbers starting to head downwards again, of course.0 -
Agreed about the American War series....Mysticrose said:
I think you're taking it and yourself a little too seriously. It's a film. It's rather good at portraying the human cost in 4 ordinary American lives. At the time it came out, 1978, that was probably a message worth telling.tyson said:Mysticrose said:
Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.tyson said:
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
Actually, re-watching the Deer Hunter now, the depiction of the VietCong was completely fabricated. Possibly you can justify this kind of narrative on occasion for cinematic effect, but when millions of Vietnamese died pointlessly in this terrible venture, it is hard to justify.
Morally, the Deer Hunter is one of the most dubious films I have ever seen- it presents itself as an anti war movie, but when you watch it you are desperate to see the Yanks kick the inhuman Gook butts....
But, yeah, if you want a great version of what the American War (as it's called over there) was all about then the Ken Burns and Lynn Novick 18-hour ten episode series is a masterpiece.
The Deer Hunter- the film that dehumanised the Viet Cong was followed by Apocalypse Now which was probably even more morally ambiguous by depicting the Americans as too soft to fight the war. The point of Apocalypse Now wasn't the fact that the US shouldn't have been there, but they were not brutal enough.
And then we had terrible films like Back Hawk Down, American Sniper and Hacksaw Ridge.....
The greatest 3 American War films I have ever seen have all been made by Stanley Kubrick- one about the first world war, one about Vietnam and one about WW3.
0 -
Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?
I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.0 -
Labour hit 33% during the 1983 election campaign, on 25th May with MORI / Sunday Times. They ended up getting 28%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election1 -
Its part of the selection process. If you don't say anything anti-semitic you don't get on the shortlistrottenborough said:1 -
Yes, anyone can be PM if the other MPs agree to it. Even someone who isn't in the House of Commons or Lords.Jason said:Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?
I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.
Not quite the same thing, but in 1964 Harold Wilson appointed Patrick Gordon Walker as Foreign Secretary even though he'd just lost his seat in Smethwick.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Gordon_Walker2 -
Pidcock has some qualities, but is also a raging Trot. Are there enough votes in the PLP to get another hard leftie on the ballot?0
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Lloyd George says hello!Jason said:Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?
I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.0 -
No problem for us tworottenborough said:MoS poll is bad news for Tories. They don't want their voters to think it is all going to be ok and not bother applying for those postal votes now.
And it will be the first time we have voted for Boris !!!!!0 -
While I don't think that is going to happen, I imagine there will be a great outcry about legitimacy of Boris winning from sudden converts to PR and that, in spirit, Labour did much better.tyson said:
I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....rottenborough said:0 -
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (+3)
LAB: 26% (+1)
LDM: 17% (=)
BXP: 10% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 7-8 Nov.
Changes w/ 5-6 Nov.0 -
This time? Yes. The others have been beaten down, or are actually happy with Corbyn and co, and the same reason applies now with even more reasoning - the base would go nuts if there was not a hard lefty. Same reason we saw Boris outriders whinging that the rules should be changed to have 4 put to the membership when they feared he might not make the final 2, and why some called for a coronation once they saw he would win, despite previously insisting there needed to be a vote.Anabobazina said:Pidcock has some qualities, but is also a raging Trot. Are there enough votes in the PLP to get another hard leftie on the ballot?
0 -
I much prefer this poll.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (+3)
LAB: 26% (+1)
LDM: 17% (=)
BXP: 10% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 7-8 Nov.
Changes w/ 5-6 Nov.
1 -
3 QE2 Jubilee medalsTheScreamingEagles said:
2 Brunei jubilee medals
Canadian Forces Decoration
NZ Commemoration Medal
Medals aren’t just awarded for gallantry0 -
Was looking for mention of Prince Philip's career on HMS Valiant, but found this reference to his service in HMS Wallace.Theuniondivvie said:
Bit harsh on Phil, some of his medals are for almost-getting-killed-by-the-enemy stuff. Tbf Edward may have run some almost-getting-killed-by-your-own-side risks.ydoethur said:
Prince Philip once met a Brazilian general in Rio on a state visit. He expressed curiosity about the large number of medals said general was wearing, and got the answer, 'I won them in the war.'TheScreamingEagles said:
'I didn't know Brazil was in the war that long,' joked Philip.
'Well, at least I didn't get them for marrying my wife,' snapped the General.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/dec/28/monarchy.davidsmith0 -
The PM is whoever can command a majority in the House of Commons. The Queen would normally invite the leader of the largest party to first have a go.Jason said:Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?
I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.
Under your scenario Johnson would get first go and would probably spend a few days trying to cobble something together. SNP could be bought possibly?0 -
All a PM has to do is secure the confidence of the Commons. If enough parties were willing to rally around Caroline Lucas they could put her into bat.Jason said:Here's a hypothetical to chew over. Say the Tories do fall short, maybe around 310, and Labour pick up 240 odd seats and combine with the SNP and the Limp Dims to make form an anti Brexit majority. Would it be possibly conceivable to elevate a leader of a party to the position of PM when their party has 60 or 70 seats fewer than another?
I genuinely do not know how the law stands with this, if there even is one. Gawd, what a fucking mess it would be.
Though this, of course, is playing with pure hypotheticals. If the other parties won't back the Tories under such circumstances then they must install Corbyn. The man won't step aside and not would his supporters tolerate the suggestion.0 -
That's certainly true, but its still amusing since the general population, I suspect, still associate medals with gallantry.Charles said:
3 QE2 Jubilee medalsTheScreamingEagles said:
2 Brunei jubilee medals
Canadian Forces Decoration
NZ Commemoration Medal
Medals aren’t just awarded for gallantry0 -
And like the first cuckoo in Spring, it will be time for Poly Toynbee's annual reminder to the Labour Party that PR is a good idea.kle4 said:
While I don't think that is going to happen, I imagine there will be a great outcry about legitimacy of Boris winning from sudden converts to PR and that, in spirit, Labour did much better.tyson said:
I've just had a look at the quote and comments....what are all these Jezziah's going to do when they find that they are shellaxed, and looking at the worst Labour seat tally since the 1930's.....rottenborough said:0 -
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Interesting how YouGov continues to put both main parties lower, and both the LDs and the Brexit Party higher.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (+3)
LAB: 26% (+1)
LDM: 17% (=)
BXP: 10% (-1)
Via @YouGov, 7-8 Nov.
Changes w/ 5-6 Nov.0
