politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.
Comments
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Love this nonsense. Where the lib dems are predicted to win seats where they don't have candidates.AndyJS said:
Flavible:peter_from_putney said:Baxter's projection, based on this evening's Opinium poll:
Con 391
Lab 178
LDem 23
Brex 0
Green 1
Con Maj 132
Well it's fun even if not really credible!
Con 391
Lab 167
SNP 41
LD 29
PC 3
Grn 1
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/41/29/15/6/2/3.1/0/0.7
Usually Flavible and ElectoralCalculus produce different numbers with the same inputs but this time they're obviously very similar.0 -
Surely this was an obvious decision once the election campaign was underway? Not denying the fury and outrage, but it seems like it would be an inevitability.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Very much damned if they do and damned if they don't. Imagine if the election campaign were full of stories about the enquiry, the Tories failed to win, Johnson's career was terminated, and then it turned out afterwards that he had no case to answer?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
BlessNorthCadboll said:
only lefties and the public sector read the Guardian and its Sunday sister paper so this headline is little more than tomorrow's chip paper. The little runt Bercow opening is gob before the election is over is of more concern. Personally I wouldn't give the little shit the time of day let alone a peerage.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Exactly. Politicians pay attention to swing voters, not robo....tribally loyal ones.Fenman said:
FPTP. Doncaster always votes Labour. So the Tories don't care. Neither do LabourOblitusSumMe said:This report from the Guardian about the floods in Doncaster is bleak. Why can't we get this right?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/09/flood-waters-receding-but-anger-rises-in-weary-doncaster0 -
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I know people still upset about the Hilary Clinton stuff that went don for example.Black_Rook said:
Very much damned if they do and damned if they don't. Imagine if the election campaign were full of stories about the enquiry, the Tories failed to win, Johnson's career was terminated, and then it turned out afterwards that he had no case to answer?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
“Fury”. An emotion reserved for people who speak to journalists who need a headline. Local newspapers will feature the photograph of a miserable (but furious) set of people staring aggressively at a geographical feature.kle4 said:
Surely this was an obvious decision once the election campaign was underway? Not denying the fury and outrage, but it seems like it would be an inevitability.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
MOS late with delta poll.
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Very Soviet. Peering through the window at Animal Farm, the Thatcherites have transmogrified into Stalinists.NorthCadboll said:If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.
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If it makes you feel any better, she regularly gets death threats and needs bodyguards when she appears at public gatherings.NorthCadboll said:If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.
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It's a bit difficult to reconcile that Opinium poll with the huge local swings from Con to LD that people have been taling about.0
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LOLHYUFD said:
There is a swimg from the SNP to the LDs with Yougov too in Scotlandmalcolmg said:HYUFD said:
LDs now ahead of Corbyn Labour in Scotland as well as the East of England, South East England and South West England. Only in London, the North, the Midlands and Wales are Labour even still the Tories main opponents and only in the North East, London and Wales are Labour actually ahead.CarlottaVance said:
Have had a busy day canvassing in Chingford for IDS and delivering in Harlow for Robert Halfon. In Chingford the Tory vote was solid, certainly on the Leave side, there were a few Tory Remainers wavering but they were only considering the LDs, they all could not stand Corbyn
, given Labour are at almost zero in Scotland that is no surprise, UKIP are likely to be ahead of them.0 -
If you are serious about it, then yes. I know I’m not very good at spotting the good odds.MikeSmithson said:
Disagree. You bet on what you think there's a chance of happening at good oddsFysics_Teacher said:
I think in political betting it’s always best to bet on what you don’t want to happen.tyson said:On thread- OGH is right- this election in only heading in one direction- and a comfortable Tory majority....
I've put a bit on a Tory majority on Betfair today- it is to soften the pill on the night. I don't do the spread markets0 -
Why Pete Buttigieg Annoys His Democratic Rivals
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-democrats.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage0 -
As a Liverpool fan I'm glad I've never said anything on social media/forums that could be misinterpreted if I ever ran for political office.2
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Actually the roughest part of Cheltenham and indeed probably Gloucestershire as a whole is St Paul's.ozymandias said:
Well apart from Hesters Way.....the birthplace of the Chav.ydoethur said:
Well, yes. Gloucester’s the grotty working class city and Cheltenham’s where all the poshos and Corbynistas hang out.ralphmalph said:
They may only be a motorway between Cheltenham and Gloucester but the divide is much greater than that, it is i have to say class based or money based.ydoethur said:
It has always struck me as daft that Gloucester and Cheltenham have two hospitals on cramped, inaccessible and badly located sites when you could build a vast new hospital at Churchdown or Elmbridge Court complete with things like car parks and a proper helipad to serve the whole of northern Gloucestershire.ralphmalph said:For those of you thinking about Cheltenham. I am convinced that part of Martin Horwoods downfall was because every Focus seemed to have the message "Martin fighting hard to save XXX health service in Cheltenham." Yet in his tenure Battledown Childrens Hospital closed (can it get worse for an MP than the closure of a Childrens Hospital) and we had a large crisis in A&E on a Saturday morning, featured on Sky News. I can remember my reaction to these and it was "This is Cheltenham, these things do not happen here."
So Mr Chalk has been on his own "I will save the NHS in Cheltenham", the local trust wants to move A&E to Gloucester and close Cheltenham. I seems Mr Chalk has won, just in time for the GE (what a surprise).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-50157157
Chalk will get this message out and I think it could be significant, vote Tory keep your healthcare.
But, every time it has been proposed it has been shot down.
But it’s still daft.0 -
Squirrel-pointing in extremis.malcolmg said:
LOLHYUFD said:
There is a swimg from the SNP to the LDs with Yougov too in Scotlandmalcolmg said:HYUFD said:
LDs now ahead of Corbyn Labour in Scotland as well as the East of England, South East England and South West England. Only in London, the North, the Midlands and Wales are Labour even still the Tories main opponents and only in the North East, London and Wales are Labour actually ahead.CarlottaVance said:
Have had a busy day canvassing in Chingford for IDS and delivering in Harlow for Robert Halfon. In Chingford the Tory vote was solid, certainly on the Leave side, there were a few Tory Remainers wavering but they were only considering the LDs, they all could not stand Corbyn , given Labour are at almost zero in Scotland that is no surprise, UKIP are likely to be ahead of them.0 -
Some clear green shoots of recovery starting to show for the anti tory Parties. Corbyn is doing the right things at last. He looks like he gives a fuck which is a look Johnson can never master.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
In other news Warsi won't say Johnson isn't a racist. She thinks the Tory party is institutionally racist and it's hard to disagree. She says she's appalled with their inaction and she wouldn't even confirm she'll vote Tory. So they're all at it!0 -
I think you should get new profiles before that day.TheScreamingEagles said:As a Liverpool fan I'm glad I've never said anything on social media/forums that could be misinterpreted if I ever ran for political office.
Liverpool may not be fertile TSE land either!0 -
Trump buying negative ads on Biden in early states:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/09/biden-super-pac-trump-choose-nominee-0684810 -
On balance, I would say Brexit makes independence an easier sell. The Scottish Government position is very pro-EU - thus, if the UK stays in, Scotland has to leave the EU of its own accord and then negotiate its way back in. A somewhat awkward proposition.camel said:
Seems like a shaky coalition.HYUFD said:The Guardian says a Corbyn government virtually impossible, even tactical voting only gets Labour to 233 seats.
However it says tactical voting could make the difference between a Tory majority on 347 seats as now and the Tories on just 309 seats in another hung parliament with Labour and the LDs and SNP combined having enough votes for EUref2
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/remain-united-tactical-voting-site-gina-miller
Wiser heads will be able to advise me on the following, as I have no idea:
If SNP's primary aim is to gain a second indy referendum, is that made more or less likely by Brexit?
If SNP's secondary aim is to win independence from a second indy referendum, is that made more or less likely by Brexit?0 -
Prince Philip once met a Brazilian general in Rio on a state visit. He expressed curiosity about the large number of medals said general was wearing, and got the answer, 'I won them in the war.'TheScreamingEagles said:
'I didn't know Brazil was in the war that long,' joked Philip.
'Well, at least I didn't get them for marrying my wife,' snapped the General.1 -
We may share those risk preferences, but people at higher risk of a stroke or sub-massive heart attack may prefer a 5% chance of an extra week in hospital to a 0.5% higher chance of death. However, as said, there are also other reasons to lobby for local hospitals, like the economic stimulus they bring and the convenience of access for staff and visitors.Black_Rook said:
That's the thick electorate for you. They assume it's essential to have a hospital five minutes away because, in the unlikely event of a massive heart attack, they have a vastly better chance of surviving if they don't have to spend five extra minutes in the back of an ambulance. Which is, of course, bollocks. It wouldn't make much difference, and they'd most likely die regardless.EPG said:
It's much simpler in that most people are risk-averse and have a strong preference for bad healthcare to loss of life due to being far from a hospital. Local lobbying for well-paid professional jobs also plays some role.Black_Rook said:
This is the problem when we stop treating the NHS as a healthcare system and start treating it as a religion.ydoethur said:It has always struck me as daft that Gloucester and Cheltenham have two hospitals on cramped, inaccessible and badly located sites when you could build a vast new hospital at Churchdown or Elmbridge Court complete with things like car parks and a proper helipad to serve the whole of northern Gloucestershire.
But, every time it has been proposed it has been shot down.
Who wants their local temple closing down? They would be deprived of their personal connection to God.
The fact that one big central hospital might provide a better bloody health service than two (not very good) medium sized ones is neither here nor there.
A large, well-equipped, modern facility half-an-hour away will almost invariably be better for your personal health outcomes and those of your family than an understaffed, tumbledown dump at the bottom of the street. Regardless of how many raffles to buy new bits of machinery for it that you've bought tickets for.0 -
Its not a joke but in Boris Johnsons case its the norm??TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Warsi hates us atheists...Roger said:
Some clear green shoots of recovery starting to show for the anti tory Parties. Corbyn is doing the right things at last. He looks like he gives a fuck which is a look Johnson can never master.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
In other news Warsi won't say Johnson isn't a racist. She thinks the Tory party is institutionally racist and it's hard to disagree. She says she's appalled with their inaction and she wouldn't even confirm she'll vote Tory. So they're all at it!0 -
I could win Bootle for the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
I think you should get new profiles before that day.TheScreamingEagles said:As a Liverpool fan I'm glad I've never said anything on social media/forums that could be misinterpreted if I ever ran for political office.
Liverpool may not be fertile TSE land either!0 -
United rather than Liverpool. But yes, it is fun when people drag stuff out of your timeline and go "AHA". Ok so i havent got my dick out, started pluckimg it and shouting "willy banjo". But i did post pro Corbyn stuff.TheScreamingEagles said:As a Liverpool fan I'm glad I've never said anything on social media/forums that could be misinterpreted if I ever ran for political office.
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Ah St. Paul's. Yes. You have a point. Isn't it made-up a lot these days of student housing? Haven't lived there for a while now.ydoethur said:
Actually the roughest part of Cheltenham and indeed probably Gloucestershire as a whole is St Paul's.ozymandias said:
Well apart from Hesters Way.....the birthplace of the Chav.ydoethur said:
Well, yes. Gloucester’s the grotty working class city and Cheltenham’s where all the poshos and Corbynistas hang out.ralphmalph said:
They may only be a motorway between Cheltenham and Gloucester but the divide is much greater than that, it is i have to say class based or money based.ydoethur said:
It has always struck me as daft that Gloucester and Cheltenham have two hospitals on cramped, inaccessible and badly located sites when you could build a vast new hospital at Churchdown or Elmbridge Court complete with things like car parks and a proper helipad to serve the whole of northern Gloucestershire.ralphmalph said:For those of you thinking about Cheltenham. I am convinced that part of Martin Horwoods downfall was because every Focus seemed to have the message "Martin fighting hard to save XXX health service in Cheltenham." Yet in his tenure Battledown Childrens Hospital closed (can it get worse for an MP than the closure of a Childrens Hospital) and we had a large crisis in A&E on a Saturday morning, featured on Sky News. I can remember my reaction to these and it was "This is Cheltenham, these things do not happen here."
So Mr Chalk has been on his own "I will save the NHS in Cheltenham", the local trust wants to move A&E to Gloucester and close Cheltenham. I seems Mr Chalk has won, just in time for the GE (what a surprise).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-50157157
Chalk will get this message out and I think it could be significant, vote Tory keep your healthcare.
But, every time it has been proposed it has been shot down.
But it’s still daft.
I was always surprised about the "new" use of "Chav" in the mid 2000's. We Cheltonians were using that in the early 90's. Always thought it meant CHeltenham AVerage.
Shellsuits,gold stud earring. Highly gelled hair and wispy moustaches. Soonest thump you in the face than bother with an argument kind of people. Call you "mush".
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Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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I thought as a Baroness she didn't have a vote anyway?Roger said:
Some clear green shoots of recovery starting to show for the anti tory Parties. Corbyn is doing the right things at last. He looks like he gives a fuck which is a look Johnson can never master.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
In other news Warsi won't say Johnson isn't a racist. She thinks the Tory party is institutionally racist and it's hard to disagree. She says she's appalled with their inaction and she wouldn't even confirm she'll vote Tory. So they're all at it!0 -
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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Raoul Moat?Black_Rook said:
Indeed. That's well into the territory where a convicted psychotic mass murderer could win if you pinned the right coloured rosette to them.ydoethur said:
Surely even Corbyn can’t lose Jarrow?!!!dyedwoolie said:https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1193238937390718976?s=19
More scum, we need more scum!
She just won the jackpot. 75-ish grand job with guaranteed security for life.0 -
If you want more up-to-date info than I have:ozymandias said:
Ah St. Paul's. Yes. You have a point. Isn't it made-up a lot these days of student housing? Haven't lived there for a while now.ydoethur said:
Actually the roughest part of Cheltenham and indeed probably Gloucestershire as a whole is St Paul's.ozymandias said:
Well apart from Hesters Way.....the birthplace of the Chav.ydoethur said:
Well, yes. Gloucester’s the grotty working class city and Cheltenham’s where all the poshos and Corbynistas hang out.ralphmalph said:
They may only be a motorway between Cheltenham and Gloucester but the divide is much greater than that, it is i have to say class based or money based.ydoethur said:
It has always struck me as daft that Gloucester and Cheltenham have two hospitals on cramped, inaccessible and badly located sites when you could build a vast new hospital at Churchdown or Elmbridge Court complete with things like car parks and a proper helipad to serve the whole of northern Gloucestershire.ralphmalph said:For those of you thinking about Cheltenham. I am convinced that part of Martin Horwoods downfall was because every Focus seemed to have the message "Martin fighting hard to save XXX health service in Cheltenham." Yet in his tenure Battledown Childrens Hospital closed (can it get worse for an MP than the closure of a Childrens Hospital) and we had a large crisis in A&E on a Saturday morning, featured on Sky News. I can remember my reaction to these and it was "This is Cheltenham, these things do not happen here."
So Mr Chalk has been on his own "I will save the NHS in Cheltenham", the local trust wants to move A&E to Gloucester and close Cheltenham. I seems Mr Chalk has won, just in time for the GE (what a surprise).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-50157157
Chalk will get this message out and I think it could be significant, vote Tory keep your healthcare.
But, every time it has been proposed it has been shot down.
But it’s still daft.
I was always surprised about the "new" use of "Chav" in the mid 2000's. We Cheltonians were using that in the early 90's. Always thought it meant CHeltenham AVerage. Shellsuits,gold stud earring. Highly gelled hair and wispy moustaches. Soonest thump you in the face than bother with an argument kind of people. Call you "mush".
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/whats-wrong-st-pauls-cheltenham-5580460 -
If only it were that easy to become a Belgian citizen ...NorthCadboll said:If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.
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Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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In short, because he's a queue jumper who is getting money, attention and support despite not having as much experience or profile as them.rottenborough said:Why Pete Buttigieg Annoys His Democratic Rivals
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-democrats.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I've no idea if he would be any good - he clearly speaks well - but it seems like a lot their concern is he hasn't jumped through the same hoops they did and is succeeding despite it. Given the age of many of the candidates they probably support a new age cursus honorum for aspiring presidents to run through.0 -
I don't wish her any physical harm. I would just throw her out of the country and revoke her citizenship since she is clearly so desperate to be an EU citizen.CatMan said:
If it makes you feel any better, she regularly gets death threats and needs bodyguards when she appears at public gatherings.NorthCadboll said:If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.
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How could we possibly have won Agincourt without them?TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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But the absence of polls is turning this into The Longest Day of the campaign. Let's hope it doesn't set a Patton.TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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Sounds like youv'e been on the Bootle to me!TheScreamingEagles said:
I could win Bootle for the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
I think you should get new profiles before that day.TheScreamingEagles said:As a Liverpool fan I'm glad I've never said anything on social media/forums that could be misinterpreted if I ever ran for political office.
Liverpool may not be fertile TSE land either!
Though I know in my heart as a clean living Muslim boy it would only have been Sarsaparilla0 -
Lady Warsi is not a Conservative any longer. She's a religious fanatic.Roger said:
Some clear green shoots of recovery starting to show for the anti tory Parties. Corbyn is doing the right things at last. He looks like he gives a fuck which is a look Johnson can never master.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
In other news Warsi won't say Johnson isn't a racist. She thinks the Tory party is institutionally racist and it's hard to disagree. She says she's appalled with their inaction and she wouldn't even confirm she'll vote Tory. So they're all at it!1 -
Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.0
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Charlton Kings, my ex-manor, much more civilisedydoethur said:
If you want more up-to-date info than I have:ozymandias said:
Ah St. Paul's. Yes. You have a point. Isn't it made-up a lot these days of student housing? Haven't lived there for a while now.ydoethur said:
Actually the roughest part of Cheltenham and indeed probably Gloucestershire as a whole is St Paul's.ozymandias said:
Well apart from Hesters Way.....the birthplace of the Chav.ydoethur said:
Well, yes. Gloucester’s the grotty working class city and Cheltenham’s where all the poshos and Corbynistas hang out.ralphmalph said:
They may only be a motorway between Cheltenham and Gloucester but the divide is much greater than that, it is i have to say class based or money based.ydoethur said:
It has always struck me as daft that Gloucester and Cheltenham have two hospitals on cramped, inaccessible and badly located sites when you could build a vast new hospital at Churchdown or Elmbridge Court complete with things like car parks and a proper helipad to serve the whole of northern Gloucestershire.ralphmalph said:For those of you thinking about Cheltenham. I am convinced that part of Martin Horwoods downfall was because every Focus seemed to have the message "Martin fighting hard to save XXX health service in Cheltenham." Yet in his tenure Battledown Childrens Hospital closed (can it get worse for an MP than the closure of a Childrens Hospital) and we had a large crisis in A&E on a Saturday morning, featured on Sky News. I can remember my reaction to these and it was "This is Cheltenham, these things do not happen here."
So Mr Chalk has been on his own "I will save the NHS in Cheltenham", the local trust wants to move A&E to Gloucester and close Cheltenham. I seems Mr Chalk has won, just in time for the GE (what a surprise).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-50157157
Chalk will get this message out and I think it could be significant, vote Tory keep your healthcare.
But, every time it has been proposed it has been shot down.
But it’s still daft.
I was always surprised about the "new" use of "Chav" in the mid 2000's. We Cheltonians were using that in the early 90's. Always thought it meant CHeltenham AVerage. Shellsuits,gold stud earring. Highly gelled hair and wispy moustaches. Soonest thump you in the face than bother with an argument kind of people. Call you "mush".
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/whats-wrong-st-pauls-cheltenham-558046 0 -
Apart from that its been a busy nightSunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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I thought it was Crecy that the East Europeans buggered everything up for the French? Although that was the King of Bohemia, not Poland.DavidL said:
How could we possibly have won Agincourt without them?TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
Edit - although on checking, I find he was apparently King of Poland as well. Never realised that.0 -
If they can't blow large amounts of money on polls in a general election campaign when can they?TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
0 -
New Secretary of State for Scotland to lose his seat?
Best prices - Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Con Maj 5,643)
Con 3/4
SNP Evs
Lab 50/1
LD 100/10 -
I married a plastic Scouser, I know Scousers very well.bigjohnowls said:
Sounds like youv'e been on the Bootle to me!TheScreamingEagles said:
I could win Bootle for the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
I think you should get new profiles before that day.TheScreamingEagles said:As a Liverpool fan I'm glad I've never said anything on social media/forums that could be misinterpreted if I ever ran for political office.
Liverpool may not be fertile TSE land either!
Though I know in my heart as a clean living Muslim boy it would only have been Sarsaparilla0 -
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
You watch the film again, and you think what a pile of shit....despite the first hour being one of the most most brilliant pieces of cinema.....0 -
Maybe you just proved her point thoughSean_F said:
Lady Warsi is not a Conservative any longer. She's a religious fanatic.Roger said:
Some clear green shoots of recovery starting to show for the anti tory Parties. Corbyn is doing the right things at last. He looks like he gives a fuck which is a look Johnson can never master.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
In other news Warsi won't say Johnson isn't a racist. She thinks the Tory party is institutionally racist and it's hard to disagree. She says she's appalled with their inaction and she wouldn't even confirm she'll vote Tory. So they're all at it!2 -
That seems to presume all Labour MPs are working class. Pretty sure we know that's not the case, leader included.rottenborough said:
And it's clearly not that he thinks there is an effort to exclude those fighting for the working class, which would presumably include more Labour MPs than just those who actually are working class.0 -
Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-471 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe he got his medals for fighting off repeated attempts at sodomy.0 -
The Queen appears to have five poppies attached to a brooch. I guess that's Royal sanction for every poppy display previously deemed to be over the top.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Whats that about!FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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Why would they do that?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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Is there a good reason why it appears that Emily Thornberry is attending the RBL Festival of Remembrance rather than Corbyn?
Full turnout from the senior royals plus Boris & Carrie.0 -
That she hates us atheists?bigjohnowls said:
Maybe you just proved her point thoughSean_F said:
Lady Warsi is not a Conservative any longer. She's a religious fanatic.Roger said:
Some clear green shoots of recovery starting to show for the anti tory Parties. Corbyn is doing the right things at last. He looks like he gives a fuck which is a look Johnson can never master.nico67 said:The media hysteria over the YouGov regional polling completely ignores the same type of polling which was done in May 2017 .
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
In other news Warsi won't say Johnson isn't a racist. She thinks the Tory party is institutionally racist and it's hard to disagree. She says she's appalled with their inaction and she wouldn't even confirm she'll vote Tory. So they're all at it!0 -
The most persecuted class in this country is the upper/middle classes, particularly those of us who had a private education.rottenborough said:
I mean it is ok to sneer at toffs but the moment I start sneering a peasant wagon using plebs suddenly I'm a snob and elitist.0 -
That's been the situation for months.FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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That’s where there NX bus stops. Allows an easy exit to civilisation.ozymandias said:
Charlton Kings, my ex-manor, much more civilisedydoethur said:
If you want more up-to-date info than I have:ozymandias said:
Ah St. Paul's. Yes. You have a point. Isn't it made-up a lot these days of student housing? Haven't lived there for a while now.ydoethur said:
Actually the roughest part of Cheltenham and indeed probably Gloucestershire as a whole is St Paul's.ozymandias said:
Well apart from Hesters Way.....the birthplace of the Chav.ydoethur said:
Well, yes. Gloucester’s the grotty working class city and Cheltenham’s where all the poshos and Corbynistas hang out.ralphmalph said:
They may only be a motorway between Cheltenham and Gloucester but the divide is much greater than that, it is i have to say class based or money based.ydoethur said:
It has always struck me as daft that Gloucester and Cheltenham have two hospitals on cramped, inaccessible and badly located sites when you could build a vast new hospital at Churchdown or Elmbridge Court complete with things like car parks and a proper helipad to serve the whole of northern Gloucestershire.ralphmalph said:For those of you thinking about Cheltenham. I am convinced that part of Martin Horwoods downfall was because every Focus seemed to have the message "Martin fighting hard to save XXX health service in Cheltenham." Yet in his tenure Battledown Childrens Hospital closed (can it get worse for an MP than the closure of a Childrens Hospital) and we had a large crisis in A&E on a Saturday morning, featured on Sky News. I can remember my reaction to these and it was "This is Cheltenham, these things do not happen here."
So Mr Chalk has been on his own "I will save the NHS in Cheltenham", the local trust wants to move A&E to Gloucester and close Cheltenham. I seems Mr Chalk has won, just in time for the GE (what a surprise).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-50157157
Chalk will get this message out and I think it could be significant, vote Tory keep your healthcare.
But, every time it has been proposed it has been shot down.
But it’s still daft.
I was always surprised about the "new" use of "Chav" in the mid 2000's. We Cheltonians were using that in the early 90's. Always thought it meant CHeltenham AVerage. Shellsuits,gold stud earring. Highly gelled hair and wispy moustaches. Soonest thump you in the face than bother with an argument kind of people. Call you "mush".
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/whats-wrong-st-pauls-cheltenham-5580460 -
It clashes with the monthly allotment committee meeting.Charles said:Is there a good reason why it appears that Emily Thornberry is attending the RBL Festival of Remembrance rather than Corbyn?
Full turnout from the senior royals plus Boris & Carrie.0 -
To be fair, she currently is an EU citizen... it would be interesting to see how the choices would break if on Brexit day all UK citizens were given the choice of UK citizenship or citizenship in an EU country of their choice.NorthCadboll said:
I don't wish her any physical harm. I would just throw her out of the country and revoke her citizenship since she is clearly so desperate to be an EU citizen.CatMan said:
If it makes you feel any better, she regularly gets death threats and needs bodyguards when she appears at public gatherings.NorthCadboll said:If Boris wins a general election we should have an online petition to send Gina Miller to Brussels, receive Belgian citizenship and send her there for good. The woman is a bloody menace.
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I restrained myself from making specific suggestions in the name of good taste. But yes, that's the general idea.initforthemoney said:
Raoul Moat?Black_Rook said:
Indeed. That's well into the territory where a convicted psychotic mass murderer could win if you pinned the right coloured rosette to them.ydoethur said:
Surely even Corbyn can’t lose Jarrow?!!!dyedwoolie said:https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1193238937390718976?s=19
More scum, we need more scum!
She just won the jackpot. 75-ish grand job with guaranteed security for life.0 -
They just want to avoid scrutinykle4 said:
That seems to presume all Labour MPs are working class. Pretty sure we know that's not the case, leader included.rottenborough said:
And it's clearly not that he thinks there is an effort to exclude those fighting for the working class, which would presumably include more Labour MPs than just those who actually are working class.
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Well the BBC guy only just tweeted itTheScreamingEagles said:
That's been the situation for months.FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1193229789479485446?s=190 -
Have they given a reason?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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Oh wow. I thought that film was a documentary on the Vietnam War.tyson said:
The Deer Hunter- the whole Russian roulette stuff was just made up....TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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He's just restating policy.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well the BBC guy only just tweeted itTheScreamingEagles said:
That's been the situation for months.FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1193229789479485446?s=190 -
Meanwhile, seems like the pollsters share the voters' apathy. The winter General Election is even more of a turn off than Brexit.0
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Tony Gallagher's wanted to be able to direct traffic to The Sun's website.OblitusSumMe said:
Have they given a reason?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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And do we know the reason? Seems a bit counterproductive for the Sun.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's just restating policy.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well the BBC guy only just tweeted itTheScreamingEagles said:
That's been the situation for months.FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1193229789479485446?s=190 -
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
"... just the administrative loose ends to be tied up"SunnyJim said:
Leaver angst is driven by the possibility of remainers overturning the referendum result.Beibheirli_C said:
Anne - If Boris gets a majority it may solve the current Brexit problem, but as I used to tell people when I was in the consulting business, when you solve your number one problem, you promote your number two problem.
Once we are technically "out" we still be in until at least 2021 and I am not sure how many Leavers have realised that. Freedom of Movement will still apply. It will at that point that many will go "They can still come here even though we are out?" and there will be more political drama.
I am unsure if Johnson's govt will actually last very long.
Once the answer to the question "Can Brexit be stopped?" is an unequivocal "No" then that will be considered the battle won with just the administrative loose ends to be tied up.
Oh yes. That is all that needs to be done. Just a minor detail for the next 7 to 10 years....0 -
So that's why he had the nickname 'The Duchess' when he was with the Marines.Sean_F said:0 -
I make confidential briefings to the press.
You leak.
He is charged under Section 2a of The Official Secrets Act.
Looks as if someone has been doing one of these things after all.0 -
And their names are.....rottenborough said:0 -
Not within the power of the Sun to “decide”. They put filth in the public domain, then anybody has the right to show them up. Journalists need to be scrutinisedFrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
“We”? The Scots were allies of the French.DavidL said:
How could we possibly have won Agincourt without them?TheScreamingEagles said:
Polls cost money and in recent years the polls have been as accurate as an American war film.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
0 -
0
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If Boris Johnson fails to win a majority I will become (even more) unbearable as I will repeatedly point out that in the last 27 years David Cameron (pbuh) is the only Tory to win a majority.kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962
Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.0 -
SF would still officially boycott Parliament?kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
We must have YouGov!Mysticrose said:Meanwhile, seems like the pollsters share the voters' apathy. The winter General Election is even more of a turn off than Brexit.
I mean we ALWAYS have YouGov! 0 -
Ah, right, so someone posting a link here to the Sun front page story would have to link to their website, rather than a twitter feed from a BBC journo. That makes sense.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tony Gallagher's wanted to be able to direct traffic to The Sun's website.OblitusSumMe said:
Have they given a reason?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently the sun have asked the bbc bods that tweet the front pages not to do include their paper from now on. Interesting decision / timing.
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Well that the tories grid down the tubes for the next week...The Times really really dont like Boris.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/TomJHarper/status/1193279348851314688
Which part of the verb to leak covers it.0 -
Maybe newspapers don't want to pay for pills who have had a less than stellar track record the last few elections.GIN1138 said:
Yes been a very disappointing evening for polls considering there's an election campaign going on as we speak!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also no MORI or Survation or ORB or ComRes!GIN1138 said:MOS late with delta poll.
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An interesting take. Though, of course, if any old shit is acceptable coming from the mouths of poor people then rich people deserve the same consideration. So we'll have no more whining about JRM's fascinating contributions to fire safety education. Because granting special leniency to working class people would be patronising.rottenborough said:
In all seriousness, however, the guy has some kind of a point. Each of these cases does, at least, have to be treated on its merits. You have to think about both severity of offence and patterns of behaviour. If somebody said an idiotic thing on Twitter, once, five or six years ago, it shouldn't always count as grounds for instant disqualification. Otherwise, in another five or ten years' time, there will be nobody left to contest these elections.1 -
Labour's Tax Bombshell + 1000rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962
Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now. 0 -
Turnout was 71% in December 1923.Mysticrose said:Meanwhile, seems like the pollsters share the voters' apathy. The winter General Election is even more of a turn off than Brexit.
November 1922 was 73%.0 -
Why would they change tack now?Sunil_Prasannan said:
SF would still officially boycott Parliament?kle4 said:
325 would be perfect in one respect - Boris will have enough votes to see a decision made on this phase of Brexit, but he cannot officially be able to claim he, like Cameron, won a majority.Barnesian said:Putting the latest four polls into my model gives:
Con 325
Lab 221
LD 36
SNP 48
Sporting Index
Con 325-333
Lab 207-215
LD 46-49
SNP 42-470 -
Now i wonder who could have possibly leaked the report to the Times?
Tories are kinda of lucky again that jezza and pals are even more connected to putin.0 -
Seems like the owner of the MOS is in full on panic moderottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962
Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.0 -
Took me a second to realise that was Labour's unacceptable spending, and not the Tories' wonderful spending.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1193281570867752962
Seems we are getting into the meat of this election now.0
