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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle to succeed Corbyn could soon be upon us and Long-Ba
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle to succeed Corbyn could soon be upon us and Long-Bailey retains her favourite position in the betting
This is a betting market that we have hardly paid any attention to because Corbyn has appeared so secure. Well he’s indicated that if LAB loses the election then he will step down so the chances are that the fight could start before Christmas.
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Keir Starmer will certainly have the 'woman only' card played against him, in the modern Labour party of virtue signalling that may prove to be a difficult hand to overcome against either Long Bailey or Pidcock.
https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248
Mr. NorthWales, if Farage isn't standing, he shouldn't be there. (Likewise Sturgeon).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
I know they'll just elect another idiot, given the 'gotta be a woman' line that John McD is pushing, Starmer might struggle.
Brescia's Mario Balotelli has been called "arrogant" by the club's ultras group as it defended Verona fans after some racially abused the Italian.
Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.
So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.
Correct?
Tories -10
Lab -5
LD +1
SNP +14
Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS
I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.
Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.
Views on Jews
- Gordon (stood down)
- Clacton (stood down)
- Coventry S (clinging on, improbably)
- Harlow (no pressure to stand down yet)
- Birmingham Hall Green (2) (no pressure to stand down yet)
Plus Pudsey, which was basically just an inept defence of Coventry S candidate, above and has probably blown over already
We might also include Chris Williamson, Derby North, in the above list, although that was really just an administrative clearing-up exercise from a previous antisemtic episiode.
Views on Transsexuals:
- Edinburgh SW (stood down - for advocating the death of people insufficiently keen on transsexuals)
- Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)
Other:
Bassetlaw (deselected, for, we think, being insufficiently left wing)
Any others?
He seems to be going to hospitals in marginal seats, getting his photo for the local paper, and going to the next
Keeping out of it until the manifesto and leaders debate but connecting through the local press
Strategy or just muddle
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/08/confusion-after-bbc-podcasts-attempt-to-define-shitposting-laura-kuenssberg
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/08/crossrail-faces-further-delays-and-will-cost-more-than-18bn-tfl
I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
The debates are a farce, and the conniving of parties and media to try and game the system to their advantage just makes them worse.
Boo and hiss!
The LDs increase in the slightly Brexity SW is also the smallest of any region, from 15% to 21%, although the BXP looks to be eating into the Tory vote share significantly there which will help them. They look set to do better in the more Remainy SE, which now has their highest vote share and increase, from 11% to 23%.
Voters in the north of England, as well as Wales and Scotland, will be bemused there's so much money available for transport spending, provided it's far away from them.
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction
We did have a few older/more signfiicant change polls in the run up to the Euros though - that was very strange.
As to this election, the BBC just announced a raft of new debates and I'm sure Boris will turn up to them all.
I'm sure scrutiny of all the party leaders will increase in the coming weeks when the manifestos have been released. We are still in the phony war stage at the moment.
And in those scenarios (say anyone who has every voted Lib Dem in their life is legally prohibited from voting conservative) then Mundell holds on in DCT whilst Lamont carks it.
Mundell is a Survivor.
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
- four separate regional polls.
Given a discrepancy of 3 %, I'd agree and suggest a pinch of salt.
For the Labour supporters and activists, I'd go so far as to say ignore it altogether. You're doing *FINE*.
The regional data was super-interesting, and not covered elsewhere other than in dodgy subsamples. Posting national VI was reasonable given the data set, but they should have been clearer about the timing and that it was not comparable to their more recent polls.*
* They might well have been, but, well, Twitter.
Lab down double digits everywhere? UH OH.
Speaking of tosh, (disclaimer: I know nothing about football), I've backed Watford and Norwich to draw at 3.5.
Incidentally, reviewing his performance last night, didn't he prom ice to give up alcohol during the campaign or until Brexit was done? Or something like that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlVI7ZNiFlI
I don't see why a regional poll would need to take two weeks with a panel - it takes a few extra microseconds for the computer to break down the figures, job done.
I keep looking at it thinking in a month's time it will have looked like buying money.
Still haven't backed it though probably because i'm still fighting the last war in my mind.
1. What happened last time. I *think* Corbyn has more baggage in most people's eyes this time. But he wasn't short of it last time, and he still overcame quite a lot during a period of extensive exposure. If he lands some decent "down with billionaires" or "nationalise the railways" punches, or Johnson self-combusts, it's gonna get tighter.
2. There's still a long way to go in the Con-BXP and Lab-LD battles, and those loyalties are more volatile than in the old 2-3 party set-up. If Farage cuts through on immigration targets being dropped or Lab manages to shake off the LDs (or conversely they have a Jo-gasm) then the picture changes.
3. Let's accept the overall VI figures are probably a decent current snapshot. But it feels to me that there are so many "micro-climates" that applying them to seat distribution is risky. If Cons lose a few seats - from their existing minority position, remember - in the south to Lib Dems and in Scotland to the SNP having already lost the DUP, they have a *lot* to steal in the Midlands and North of England to win a majority.
If the tribal Northern Lab vote really is dead (today's regional YouGov suggests it might be on life support), Boris is home and dry. Even without that switch, Corbyn has a long way to catch up and I suspect a low ceiling.
So yes.. Con most seats pretty nailed on. But anything beyond a thin majority feels wishful to me at this stage.
Is Boris fucking mad? All going too well, why don't we mix it up a bit chaps with this little hand grenade??
https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/policies-and-guidance/tory-nhs-visa-announcement-shaded-by-nurse-tax-concerns-08-11-2019/
Why would so many Tories move direct to SNP with the Sword of Damocles of independence being brazenly waved over their heads?
We may as well say Corbyn is 2nd most popular Lab leader ever based on
https://twitter.com/CllrMajid/status/873858102365499392/photo/1
heh.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
Which explains the odds.
I can’t go in again until 28th November (when I next get paid) at the risk that it might then be down to 1.08-1.09.