politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading f
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority
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Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO0
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If they were there wouldn't be any winnings to be made by betting on them. The trick is knowing in what way they're wrong!SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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then you will be able to make money.SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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I think the Tories were around 400 with the spreads this time in 2017.0
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Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.0
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wholly off topic:
In 1989 Euros the Greens managed 2.3m votes.
After 30 years of campaigning, and in an era when green issues have come to the fore, culminating in a climate emergency, this year they managed 1.8m votes in the Euros.
Meanwhile a party campaigning on a relatively minor constitutional issue managed 5.2m votes, two months after being created.
It must be disheartening to be in green politics. I admire their dogged determination as much as I admire their asceticism. They should try to sign up that Farage fella, though.
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BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
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320 does it in reality though doesn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.
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The Labour candidate for Gordon has quit (she of the anti-Semitic blog posts, I know it's hard to keep track).
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/exclusive-labour-officials-accused-of-covering-up-mp-hopeful-s-antisemitism-1.4921440 -
So these databases the parties harvest and crunch details about us to target us, how do we actually know they are all legal, Does anyone come in to inspect them to sign certificate that they are playing fair, like an MOT?
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?
Thinking back to how bearings bank went down, a fraudster asking for money when declaring profits much less than what was asking for given the money despite no income coming in from what he was selling, that occurred because the people who should have picked up on it weren’t stupid, it was just a new world to them and they didn’t understand it, they were out of their depths in terms of monitoring and auditing it.
So what’s stopping betting on and getting involved in GE19 from turning out like a Tour de France, when what you thought was fair and heroic turns out to be unfair and illegal?0 -
Shadsy and Betfair will not pay out at 320.bigjohnowls said:
320 does it in reality though doesn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.
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Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.0 -
Labour candidate with robust views on Middle Eastern peoples suddenly stands down.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-general-election-latest-kate-ramsden-resign-corbyn-israel-child-abuse-a9193926.html1 -
Are the LDs happy to support Welsh independence, but opposed to Scottish independence?
The electoral pact with PC seems to be a little odd.
Equally are they happy with fiscal irresponsibility on a mind-staggering scale, but going to object to Corbyns slightly less, but still wild and irrational spending plans?
The electoral pact with the Greens seems to be a little odd.
Obviously the arguments for having this pact are quite easy to make, but it seems to me that this is a poor choice. in a GE.0 -
Source? Linky? (Genuine question)SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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Oh for getting purposes you mean.TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy and Betfair will not pay out at 320.bigjohnowls said:
320 does it in reality though doesn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.
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Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.0
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On that topic, does she have an opinion on teaching establishments who have given original nativity a twist having Jasper Dandelion and Horlicks bringing things like Xboxes, and Jesus has come to save the planet from environmental disaster, is that misguided or still pretty much on the right track?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.0 -
FPT:
In this year's locals, there were jointly branded leaflets going out in one of the Oxfordshire districts (either South or VoWH, can't remember which) with both Lib Dem and Green logos on, saying that each party endorsed the other. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same in the Unite to Remain seats.Drutt said:Conversation in Bristol West pub at lunchtime today:
Me (looks at news on phone): look LDs aren't standing here [describes pact, standing aside for Greens]
Me, aside: fuck it's cost me a fiver
Colleague 1: oh no I was going to vote for them
Colleague 2: yeah me too
C1: don't know who to vote for now
C2: nor do i
C1: hmm
C2: oh0 -
It's five minutes since the last major party candidate had to resign, so have any more stood down since then?0
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That's not what happened at Barings.egg said:So these databases the parties harvest and crunch details about us to target us, how do we actually know they are all legal, Does anyone come in to inspect them to sign certificate that they are playing fair, like an MOT?
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?
Thinking back to how bearings bank went down, a fraudster asking for money when declaring profits much less than what was asking for given the money despite no income coming in from what he was selling, that occurred because the people who should have picked up on it weren’t stupid, it was just a new world to them and they didn’t understand it, they were out of their depths in terms of monitoring and auditing it.
So what’s stopping betting on and getting involved in GE19 from turning out like a Tour de France, when what you thought was fair and heroic turns out to be unfair and illegal?
He made huge profits on unauthorised trades, then eventually it went bad, then he made it worse by trying to cover the loss.0 -
It's always been easier to sell snake oil than genuine remedies.camel said:wholly off topic:
In 1989 Euros the Greens managed 2.3m votes.
After 30 years of campaigning, and in an era when green issues have come to the fore, culminating in a climate emergency, this year they managed 1.8m votes in the Euros.
Meanwhile a party campaigning on a relatively minor constitutional issue managed 5.2m votes, two months after being created.
It must be disheartening to be in green politics. I admire their dogged determination as much as I admire their asceticism. They should try to sign up that Farage fella, though.1 -
I can see the Greens getting two seats (although one is presumably more likely). I don't see how they could get the four seats needed for you to not lose money.0
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Isn't that in the Green manifesto? How have you got hold of an early copy?egg said:
On that topic, does she have an opinion on teaching establishments who have given original nativity a twist having Jasper Dandelion and Horlicks bringing things like Xboxes, and Jesus has come to save the planet from environmental disaster, is that misguided or still pretty much on the right track?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
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PB recently published this magnificent analysis on when the betting markets (including the spreads) get it wrong boy do they get it wrong.viewcode said:
Source? Linky? (Genuine question)SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/11707987353974128660 -
No, but great news - Salma Yaqoob is in the running for Birmingham Hall Green. So that will be another scandal.AndyJS said:It's five minutes since the last major party candidate had to resign, so have any more stood down since then?
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And is she a Unionist? I assume she is when in Scotland but not when she's in Wales.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.0 -
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
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I think the point is that the over/under is a better forecaster of the most likely result, because the current spread (for smaller parties) effectively also contains a call option.RobertGiles said:
then you will be able to make money.SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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Someone needs a source or link for a personal opinion?viewcode said:
Source? Linky? (Genuine question)SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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320 would be difficult; I think 321 or 322 would be better.bigjohnowls said:
320 does it in reality though doesn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.
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I’m buying the Conservatives and selling the Lib Dems at current prices. I have,however, moved to Spreadex given that Sporting Index has severely restricted my stakes and are not prepared to move on that.
You can draw your own conclusions about the ethics of a market-making company with substantial spreads that seeks to deter punters with good track records but who will take large stakes from others.1 -
Are Cov South and Pudsey confirmed binnings, or are they still on the ropes?Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
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If you are gusy guying a gottle of geer in Gasinstoke, then yes.bigjohnowls said:
Oh for getting purposes you mean.TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy and Betfair will not pay out at 320.bigjohnowls said:
320 does it in reality though doesn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.
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In retrospect, this sort of trial by Twitter targetting of the SNP after the 2015 landslide now looks like blessing in disguise - any skeletons in the closet would surely have come to light by now.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:The Labour candidate for Gordon has quit (she of the anti-Semitic blog posts, I know it's hard to keep track).
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/exclusive-labour-officials-accused-of-covering-up-mp-hopeful-s-antisemitism-1.492144
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It's the difference between mean and median is a better way of saying this.rcs1000 said:
I think the point is that the over/under is a better forecaster of the most likely result, because the current spread (for smaller parties) effectively also contains a call option.RobertGiles said:
then you will be able to make money.SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
A line bet forecasts the median a spread bet forecasts the mean.
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Don’t forget the tens of tories who wouldn’t sign the no deal pledge that have stood down. Not that they did something wrong but a key contributor to TurnoverCookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
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Most candidates are good eggs, and the SNP have fewer candidates than most...sarissa said:
In retrospect, this sort of trial by Twitter targetting of the SNP after the 2015 landslide now looks like blessing in disguise - any skeletons in the closet would surely have come to light by now.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:The Labour candidate for Gordon has quit (she of the anti-Semitic blog posts, I know it's hard to keep track).
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/exclusive-labour-officials-accused-of-covering-up-mp-hopeful-s-antisemitism-1.4921440 -
Facebook: we would let Tories run 'doctored' Starmer video as ad
Social network says policy of allowing misinformation opens up political debate
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/07/facebook-we-would-let-tories-run-doctored-starmer-video-as-ad0 -
As Mike Reid used to say “runaround” before it’s too late.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Are Cov South and Pudsey confirmed binnings, or are they still on the ropes?Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
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Weekend
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north0 -
The SNP seems to have sharpened up on this since the selection of the disastrous Neil Hay (Paco McSheepie).sarissa said:
In retrospect, this sort of trial by Twitter targetting of the SNP after the 2015 landslide now looks like blessing in disguise - any skeletons in the closet would surely have come to light by now.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:The Labour candidate for Gordon has quit (she of the anti-Semitic blog posts, I know it's hard to keep track).
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/exclusive-labour-officials-accused-of-covering-up-mp-hopeful-s-antisemitism-1.492144
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32433723
It all looks a bit mild now, compared to the running open sewer of politics circa 2019.0 -
It is a magnificent article. Indeed, PB publishes many magnificent articles. If only there was a way I could rank my choices and choose the one that gave the best option...TheScreamingEagles said:
PB recently published this magnificent analysis on when the betting markets (including the spreads) get it wrong boy do they get it wrong.viewcode said:
Source? Linky? (Genuine question)SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1170798735397412866
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320 if Flint and Zadrozny are elected I reckon.bigjohnowls said:
320 does it in reality though doesn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:Actually the mid price of the spreads says the Tories will not win a majority, for betting purposes the line they have to reach is 326.
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That is a more elegant way of saying it!Omnium said:
It's the difference between mean and median is a better way of saying this.rcs1000 said:
I think the point is that the over/under is a better forecaster of the most likely result, because the current spread (for smaller parties) effectively also contains a call option.RobertGiles said:
then you will be able to make money.SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
A line bet forecasts the median a spread bet forecasts the mean.0 -
Ave It! 😆Ave_it said:
Isn't that in the Green manifesto? How have you got hold of an early copy?egg said:
On that topic, does she have an opinion on teaching establishments who have given original nativity a twist having Jasper Dandelion and Horlicks bringing things like Xboxes, and Jesus has come to save the planet from environmental disaster, is that misguided or still pretty much on the right track?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
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Ah, it was IMHO. I didn't notice. Curse this newfangled internet thing!MTimT said:
Someone needs a source or link for a personal opinion?viewcode said:
Source? Linky? (Genuine question)SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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Yeah nothing improves political debate quite like a load of lies. Social media is killing democracy.TheScreamingEagles said:Facebook: we would let Tories run 'doctored' Starmer video as ad
Social network says policy of allowing misinformation opens up political debate
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/07/facebook-we-would-let-tories-run-doctored-starmer-video-as-ad0 -
135 seats could be enough for Jo Swinson to enter Downing Street.0
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I've not had any problem with Sporting Index but I'm a small player and a fairly new customer. My main spread market is distances at race meetings - some courses lend themselves to wide margin winners under particular conditions and others don't.AlastairMeeks said:I’m buying the Conservatives and selling the Lib Dems at current prices. I have,however, moved to Spreadex given that Sporting Index has severely restricted my stakes and are not prepared to move on that.
As far as the 2019 GE is concerned, I'm on a BUY of Conservative seats at 325. As I've said here before, I think as a contest it's already over and the question is whether the Conservatives win big or very big. Obviously I hadn't bargained on the campaigning ineptitude of CCHQ but Labour are worse so I see very little downside at 325 but if the Conservative share starts to collapse I'd cash out.
I really don't know about Labour and suspect the spread of 210-218 isn't far off the truth. I agree the LD seat total looks like a SELL at 42 but a couple of constituency polls and the strong targeting makes me think the Party could easily end up in the mid 30s so the downside is there and the upside may not be much.
I don't know enough about Scotland or Wales to make even an uninformed bet0 -
Let's remind ourselves of Labour's 1983 manifesto:
"Our approach is different. We will expand the economy, by providing a strong and measured increase in spending. Spending money creates jobs. Money spent on railway electrification means jobs, not only in construction, but also in the industries that supply the equipment - as well as faster and better trains. If we increase pensions and child benefits, it means more spending power for the elderly and for parents, more bought in shops, more orders for goods, and more jobs in the factories. More spending means that the economy will begin to expand: and growth will provide the new wealth for higher wages and better living standards, the right climate for industry to invest, and more resources for the public services.
..........
But the scale of borrowing will not be nearly as great as the increase in spending. Spending generates new income and new savings. As the economy recovers we shall be able to spend less on keeping people unemployed. And when people get jobs they will also pay income tax and spend more on goods which are taxed. Last year benefit payments, and tax revenues foregone - because of unemployment - cost the nation some £17,000 million. There are also important savings to be made by cancelling the present government 5 massive expenditure programmes on Trident and on PWR nuclear reactors."
http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1983/1983-labour-manifesto.shtml0 -
He was declaring imaginary profits, asking for more money, what he claimed he had sold wasn’t bring in income, but that’s not my point, he got away with the crime because trading like that was new way of doing things for old style bank, and those monitoring and auditing in back office were out of their depths for new fangled things.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not what happened at Barings.egg said:So these databases the parties harvest and crunch details about us to target us, how do we actually know they are all legal, Does anyone come in to inspect them to sign certificate that they are playing fair, like an MOT?
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?
Thinking back to how bearings bank went down, a fraudster asking for money when declaring profits much less than what was asking for given the money despite no income coming in from what he was selling, that occurred because the people who should have picked up on it weren’t stupid, it was just a new world to them and they didn’t understand it, they were out of their depths in terms of monitoring and auditing it.
So what’s stopping betting on and getting involved in GE19 from turning out like a Tour de France, when what you thought was fair and heroic turns out to be unfair and illegal?
He made huge profits on unauthorised trades, then eventually it went bad, then he made it worse by trying to cover the loss.
Is there fairness and legality in the harvesting and use of data on us, the people, in this election? Are those policing the law around these databases and systems out of their depth in what is going on?0 -
The candidate in Pudsey's comments were hardly egregious. In the clip I heard she absolutely didn't make the comparison between celebrating the death of Blair and Hitler.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Are Cov South and Pudsey confirmed binnings, or are they still on the ropes?Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
Overblown.0 -
LOL.viewcode said:
Ah, it was IMHO. I didn't notice. Curse this newfangled internet thing!MTimT said:
Someone needs a source or link for a personal opinion?viewcode said:
Source? Linky? (Genuine question)SquareRoot said:Spreads are not accurate in terms of forecasting IMHO
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Relegation 6-pointer at Carrow Road for your boys tomorrow evening or is it a case of two bald men fighting over a comb and both will be hosting the Tractor Boys in the Championship next season?Ave_it said:
More chance of Watford going top of the premier league - this week!AndyJS said:135 seats could be enough for Jo Swinson to enter Downing Street.
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Only on high ground still. Rain and wind is a greater threat in December than snow. There are a number of flooding incidents closing train lines today, for example. The ground is saturated in many places.Big_G_NorthWales said:Weekend
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north0 -
In 2015, not very.egg said:So these databases the parties harvest and crunch details about us to target us, how do we actually know they are all legal, Does anyone come in to inspect them to sign certificate that they are playing fair, like an MOT?
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?0 -
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.0 -
Social media certainly having impact on society, culture, politics and democracy. Rather like those who stood on bridge at Chernobyl to watch the fire, maybe we don’t appreciate at the time what is happening to us.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Yeah nothing improves political debate quite like a load of lies. Social media is killing democracy.TheScreamingEagles said:Facebook: we would let Tories run 'doctored' Starmer video as ad
Social network says policy of allowing misinformation opens up political debate
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/07/facebook-we-would-let-tories-run-doctored-starmer-video-as-ad0 -
No its a Labour of love!PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
Or is it a CON of love?
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Hello Stodge - we are both down, hopefully we can avoid finishing bottom.stodge said:
Relegation 6-pointer at Carrow Road for your boys tomorrow evening or is it a case of two bald men fighting over a comb and both will be hosting the Tractor Boys in the Championship next season?Ave_it said:
More chance of Watford going top of the premier league - this week!AndyJS said:135 seats could be enough for Jo Swinson to enter Downing Street.
Yes Ipswich next season normally we beat them!
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God, if true, she's delusional.rottenborough said:0 -
@Stodge - re winning distances....
My apologies if it's telling granny how to suck eggs but I do hope you have in your notebook 'Buy WDs at Fakenham when going heavy'.0 -
Hope not. I’m at a mega lash wedding in Richmond.Big_G_NorthWales said:Weekend
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north0 -
Forecast for north and ScotlandGallowgate said:
Hope not. I’m at a mega lash wedding in Richmond.Big_G_NorthWales said:Weekend
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north0 -
Exiting the stage with dignity is a skill that some people fail to master.Casino_Royale said:
God, if true, she's delusional.rottenborough said:0 -
It's all they have, my friend. Getting on to areas like policy and Boris's record in Government and the record of the Government since 2017 isn't what they want to talk about.PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?
0 -
I wasn't aware of that but I had noticed a sharp increase in the number of childish remarks about her.PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
Do they really pay people to do that kind of thing?0 -
This is how Jo Swinson could enter Downing Street with 135 seats:
Con 310
LD 135
Lab 130
SNP 50
PC 5
Grn 1
Ind 1
NI 181 -
The days when people spoke in thousands of millions instead of American billions ...AndyJS said:Let's remind ourselves of Labour's 1983 manifesto:
"Our approach is different. We will expand the economy, by providing a strong and measured increase in spending. Spending money creates jobs. Money spent on railway electrification means jobs, not only in construction, but also in the industries that supply the equipment - as well as faster and better trains. If we increase pensions and child benefits, it means more spending power for the elderly and for parents, more bought in shops, more orders for goods, and more jobs in the factories. More spending means that the economy will begin to expand: and growth will provide the new wealth for higher wages and better living standards, the right climate for industry to invest, and more resources for the public services.
..........
But the scale of borrowing will not be nearly as great as the increase in spending. Spending generates new income and new savings. As the economy recovers we shall be able to spend less on keeping people unemployed. And when people get jobs they will also pay income tax and spend more on goods which are taxed. Last year benefit payments, and tax revenues foregone - because of unemployment - cost the nation some £17,000 million. There are also important savings to be made by cancelling the present government 5 massive expenditure programmes on Trident and on PWR nuclear reactors."
http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1983/1983-labour-manifesto.shtml0 -
I go through my Facebook feed and delete anybody that posts politics, it’s not there for that and if any of my ‘friends’ think their rant will change my vote they are mistaken. I lost 50% of my social contact base over the referendum and I’m not going down that road again. Don’t talk about it in social settings, keep gob shut, only actually get involved in process technicalities not policies. Life is, socially,to short to fall out over politics. If people revert to type and make racist or homophobic comments I’ll challenge them but not linkedtopolitics but human values.egg said:
Social media certainly having impact on society, culture, politics and democracy. Rather like those who stood on bridge at Chernobyl to watch the fire, maybe we don’t appreciate at the time what is happening to us.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Yeah nothing improves political debate quite like a load of lies. Social media is killing democracy.TheScreamingEagles said:Facebook: we would let Tories run 'doctored' Starmer video as ad
Social network says policy of allowing misinformation opens up political debate
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/07/facebook-we-would-let-tories-run-doctored-starmer-video-as-ad0 -
Oh yes - I'm going to have a look at Ffos Las on Sunday. That's another track with large winning distances when it gets really heavy but it's not wet enough yet.Peter_the_Punter said:@Stodge - re winning distances....
My apologies if it's telling granny how to suck eggs but I do hope you have in your notebook 'Buy WDs at Fakenham when going heavy'.
Lingfield is another venue when you can buy distances all day when the ground is Heavy - they go on Tuesday but it's a 6-race card with a Polytrack Bumper so an element of caution advised..0 -
TSE was succinct in what he said about Barings, and essentially right. Other comments above aren't right, and the original poster is very far from right.egg said:
He was declaring imaginary profits, asking for more money, what he claimed he had sold wasn’t bring in income, but that’s not my point, he got away with the crime because trading like that was new way of doing things for old style bank, and those monitoring and auditing in back office were out of their depths for new fangled things.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not what happened at Barings.egg said:So these databases the parties harvest and crunch details about us to target us, how do we actually know they are all legal, Does anyone come in to inspect them to sign certificate that they are playing fair, like an MOT?
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?
Thinking back to how bearings bank went down, a fraudster asking for money when declaring profits much less than what was asking for given the money despite no income coming in from what he was selling, that occurred because the people who should have picked up on it weren’t stupid, it was just a new world to them and they didn’t understand it, they were out of their depths in terms of monitoring and auditing it.
So what’s stopping betting on and getting involved in GE19 from turning out like a Tour de France, when what you thought was fair and heroic turns out to be unfair and illegal?
He made huge profits on unauthorised trades, then eventually it went bad, then he made it worse by trying to cover the loss.
Is there fairness and legality in the harvesting and use of data on us, the people, in this election? Are those policing the law around these databases and systems out of their depth in what is going on?
Of course there's fairness in harvesting data. Everything you see, hear, or feel is available to you to make decisions. If you had an army of scribes stick that in a database then that'd be fine.
We're just not used to people having total recollection of what happened last night. (Or on the shopping trip, or whether you went for large fries)
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Andrew Neil asking Nadeem Zadawi on Sky “are you seriously suggesting Mr Corbyn wants wealthy people shot or starved to death?”
Zadawi answers “you’ll have to ask him”0 -
I have no time for SPIN. Bunch of spivs and vipers. It's not only the spread. They also take the markets down when you most need to trade. And they are happy to exploit ambiguity.AlastairMeeks said:I’m buying the Conservatives and selling the Lib Dems at current prices. I have,however, moved to Spreadex given that Sporting Index has severely restricted my stakes and are not prepared to move on that.
You can draw your own conclusions about the ethics of a market-making company with substantial spreads that seeks to deter punters with good track records but who will take large stakes from others.
I once got burned by setting a £200 stop-loss, which they didn't adequately explain was by point only and not absolute.
So I actually lost £420 which they were very aggressive in chasing to collect.0 -
It’s an election. Everything will be like an Arm after a flu jab.camel said:
The candidate in Pudsey's comments were hardly egregious. In the clip I heard she absolutely didn't make the comparison between celebrating the death of Blair and Hitler.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Are Cov South and Pudsey confirmed binnings, or are they still on the ropes?Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
Overblown.
8 years ago on social media they liked a fantastic goal, but that was scored by the evil rivals of the constituency they delighted last week to be selected for, in this febrile bubble once that like is discovered they’re toast. 😏0 -
Is this for real!? I cant tell anymore.....PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.1 -
It was Barings Bank, and anyone who thinks the board did not know what was going on when they transferred huge amounts to Singapore to cover losses is naive in the extreme. No doubt they were duped (due to incompetent oversight) initially, but then they knew and after failing to recover the position adopted the 2nd Law of Management - the search for the guilty and sacrifice of the fall guy (the 1st Law being that any decision communicated should be sufficiently ambiguous that if it goes well you can take the credit and if badly, the blame can be placed elsewhere - also useful in this case).egg said:So these databases the parties harvest and crunch details about us to target us, how do we actually know they are all legal, Does anyone come in to inspect them to sign certificate that they are playing fair, like an MOT?
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?
Thinking back to how bearings bank went down, a fraudster asking for money when declaring profits much less than what was asking for given the money despite no income coming in from what he was selling, that occurred because the people who should have picked up on it weren’t stupid, it was just a new world to them and they didn’t understand it, they were out of their depths in terms of monitoring and auditing it.
So what’s stopping betting on and getting involved in GE19 from turning out like a Tour de France, when what you thought was fair and heroic turns out to be unfair and illegal?0 -
Yes, I have Ffffffos in my book too.stodge said:
Oh yes - I'm going to have a look at Ffos Las on Sunday. That's another track with large winning distances when it gets really heavy but it's not wet enough yet.Peter_the_Punter said:@Stodge - re winning distances....
My apologies if it's telling granny how to suck eggs but I do hope you have in your notebook 'Buy WDs at Fakenham when going heavy'.
Lingfield is another venue when you can buy distances all day when the ground is Heavy - they go on Tuesday but it's a 6-race card with a Polytrack Bumper so an element of caution advised..
I am sure the traders know all about these places but there seems to be no limit to how heavy the ground can get in Norfolk and Pembrokeshire, and how slowly the horses can come home.0 -
One or two candidates will be way ahead of the pack, because of the combination of the 15% threshold (admittedly at the precinct level) and the monetary costs of being a player.rottenborough said:
Kamala Harris is reducing the size of her operation to focus on Iowa. She's not going to win (or even be top three) in Iowa. Cory Booker is not going to make the December debate.
After Iowa, there will be at most four candidates left: Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg. And if Buttigieg doesn't make the top two, it'll be three candidates.
That pretty much ensures there will be either (a) a clear favourite by the end of Super Tuesday, or (b) a long drawn out head-to-head between two candidates, one from the left wing (Sanders or Warren) and one from moderate one (Biden or Buttigieg).0 -
I note that the Liberal Democrats are standing down for the Greens in Cannock Chase.
I think this is probably for a number of reasons. First off, in 2017 the Greens were ahead of the Liberal Democrats. Admittedly, it was by 815 to 794 but as Churchill said, a majority of one is a majority. Second, the Liberal Democrat organisation round here is only just emerging from years of being effectively moribund. They also hadn’t picked their candidate afaik. Meanwhile the Greens are small, but well-organised, vocal and prominent. They also have in Paul Woodhead a local candidate who will be standing in his third election. Third, the obvious Liberal Democrat targets are all in Birmingham and that is where they will doubtless want to focus local energy (unless they take leave of their senses and target Lichfield and Sutton Coldfield).
At the same time, I think it’s an error. I would have voted Liberal Democrat without a qualm, but I am almost certainly not going to vote Green, less because of their views than because they have nothing useful to say on a national level. So it is not going to have he effect they hoped.
It also leaves me with an extremely difficult decision to make.0 -
Very strange:
The BBC was apparently happy for Nick Conrad to continue to work for them for 5 years as a radio presenter after his controversial comments.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/19/bbc-knickers-on-nick-conrad-rapist-ched-evans0 -
Here's an early view of the chart for Thursday December 12th at 6pm:Big_G_NorthWales said:Weekend
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2019110706/run1m/cfs-0-852.png?06
This chart will change A LOT in the next five weeks so don't take as gospel. The short term remains cold and unsettled through next week so not much fun for canvassers or deliverers.0 -
SNP & Labourites - esp BJO here for example - have been doing that for weeks haven't they?PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.1 -
I am sure that dealing with Boris and Jeremy seems very similar to being a primary school teaching assistant - specialising in special needs pupils.Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.0 -
You have just added another to the numerous reasons why turnout might be low on election day.stodge said:
Here's an early view of the chart for Thursday December 12th at 6pm:Big_G_NorthWales said:Weekend
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2019110706/run1m/cfs-0-852.png?06
This chart will change A LOT in the next five weeks so don't take as gospel. The short term remains cold and unsettled through next week so not much fun for canvassers or deliverers.0 -
That's why Sky News are going big on this today.AndyJS said:Very strange:
The BBC was apparently happy for Nick Conrad to continue to work for them for 5 years as a radio presenter after his controversial comments.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/19/bbc-knickers-on-nick-conrad-rapist-ched-evans
All the 'the BBC are monitoring your internet' tinfoil hat nonsense aimed at Kirsty Strickland should have seen him booted out.
Sky reporting that it came up in the selection meeting, but he still got the nod.
One of the other candidates was a female Counterterrorism expert, for goodness' sake. Why not pick her over some two bit shock jock with a history of unwise comments on rape cases?1 -
No. You won’t find anything like that going on.noneoftheabove said:
Is this for real!? I cant tell anymore.....PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
But amidst it all we have PB. It’s early days, but PB is having an excellent election so far, some of the headers have been better than you’ll get in a daily paper, and the banter is fun, informed, informative, and largely respectful so far. 👍🏻
Though Byronic will be a miss when he goes to Antarctica for the Playgirl shoot 🙁0 -
There was a 12 second gap before she came up with Hitler.egg said:
It’s an election. Everything will be like an Arm after a flu jab.camel said:
The candidate in Pudsey's comments were hardly egregious. In the clip I heard she absolutely didn't make the comparison between celebrating the death of Blair and Hitler.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Are Cov South and Pudsey confirmed binnings, or are they still on the ropes?Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
Overblown.
8 years ago on social media they liked a fantastic goal, but that was scored by the evil rivals of the constituency they delighted last week to be selected for, in this febrile bubble once that like is discovered they’re toast. 😏
I like to imagine she was going to say "yeah we had a proper piss up when thatcher died", had second thoughts and conjured up hitler, an individual whose reputation it is literally impossible to traduce.0 -
Yes they are like all the party bots who religiously post the message of the day from the party they support. Do thetget paid? NoideaScrapheap_as_was said:
SNP & Labourites - esp BJO here for example - have been doing that for weeks haven't they?PClipp said:
It was a couple of days ago that Tory HQ sent out instructions to Tory workers to get online and make all the disparaging remarks they could about Jo Swinson - no matter how nonsensical. . Have they instructed you to keep going with that particular strategy? And do they pay you for it?Ave_it said:
Jo won't have to worry about this in 5 weeks time and she can go back to being a primary school teaching assistant.dr_spyn said:BBC points West has Jo Swinson trying explain why there is a pact with The Greens in Bristol West.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.0 -
I suspect the next one to go will be Mims Davies, the Conservative MP in Eastleigh. Not due to scandal but because she has been changing her mind on what she is doing every other day. She must be so confused that she could even start believing a word Boris says.Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
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edit *traduce controversially.camel said:
There was a 12 second gap before she came up with Hitler.egg said:
It’s an election. Everything will be like an Arm after a flu jab.camel said:
The candidate in Pudsey's comments were hardly egregious. In the clip I heard she absolutely didn't make the comparison between celebrating the death of Blair and Hitler.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Are Cov South and Pudsey confirmed binnings, or are they still on the ropes?Cookie said:
So what's that so far? Three for views on the Jews (Cov S, Pudsey and Gordon?) and one for death threats to people deemed insufficiently in favour of transsexuals (Edin SW)? Plus the candidate in Bassetlaw forced out for not being extreme enough? Is that right?rottenborough said:Another Labour PPC gone for anti-Semitism. The party is riddled with it.
Overblown.
8 years ago on social media they liked a fantastic goal, but that was scored by the evil rivals of the constituency they delighted last week to be selected for, in this febrile bubble once that like is discovered they’re toast. 😏
I like to imagine she was going to say "yeah we had a proper piss up when thatcher died", had second thoughts and conjured up hitler, an individual whose reputation it is literally impossible to traduce.0 -
Just seen the list of remain alliance seats. The LDs standing down in Exeter is fantastic news for Ben Bradshaw. He must be ecstatically happy.0
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One of the more broken aspects of our democracy, in a field of stiff competition, is candidate selection.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
That's why Sky News are going big on this today.AndyJS said:Very strange:
The BBC was apparently happy for Nick Conrad to continue to work for them for 5 years as a radio presenter after his controversial comments.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/19/bbc-knickers-on-nick-conrad-rapist-ched-evans
All the 'the BBC are monitoring your internet' tinfoil hat nonsense aimed at Kirsty Strickland should have seen him booted out.
Sky reporting that it came up in the selection meeting, but he still got the nod.
One of the other candidates was a female Counterterrorism expert, for goodness' sake. Why not pick her over some two bit shock jock with a history of unwise comments on rape cases?2
