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My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
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Ah, so your concern is not that it was spent at all, but that it was not spent in an effective manner. That's different.Benpointer said:
Without knowing what type of Brexit we were getting (and we still don't know) "Get Ready for Brexit" was completely pointless as an advertising campaign. The shallowness of the information available on the government websites was testament to that.kle4 said:
I think we have to be fair to Boris in that but for a fairly close vote last week on a timetable motion, we likely would have Brexited in just a few days from now, or a couple of weeks afterwards. We genuinely did come close to Brexiting and should have been prepared. And if the getting ready was for no deal, it would be deeply irresponsible to assume that the EU would play ball. Very little chance they would not, but we'd want to bank everything on that? There's many things to criticise Boris for, but after proving he was working to get a deal and was not wasting time, there really was a chance we'd Brexit on time.Benpointer said:
Not messing about!?Big_G_NorthWales said:Yellowhammer stood down
Boris not messing about
He's been messing about spaffing taxpayers' money up the wall (as the saying goes) on 'Get Ready for Brexit' ads for the past two months!0 -
Or half the country votes on the 10th and the other half on the 11th!AndyJS said:
Maybe they can compromise with the 10th or 11th.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Until 1918 there was not a fixed date for a General Election in that polling stretched over a few weeks in different areas of the country.Also In 1945 Polling Day in Scotland was a week later than elsewhere.1 -
I suspect Farage has an electoral pact with BJ. Farage has been too quiet today. It makes sense to get the election triggered before announcing any pact. What could TBP gain, a dozen or so safe Tory seats have MPs with whip withdrawn. Coupon elections with ideologically similar parties can happen...kle4 said:
Absolutely it will. But even accepting that argument as true for a moment, Farage and co have to know that it is Boris Brexit or no Brexit, so I wonder how many of their supporters will walk their leaders' talk.Benpointer said:If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?
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98% now I'd say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now0 -
Anyone heard from Arcuri lately?0
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99.99999%MarqueeMark said:
98% now I'd say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
Only something like HMQ dropping dead would halt it now.0 -
But the SNP probably wouldn't support that...!justin124 said:
This is now well beyond a joke; anyone seen to muck around with dates like this is not going to impress the public.0 -
Groans gently.Barnesian said:
We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.ydoethur said:
No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.Barnesian said:If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?
If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.
He would be mad to do it.
Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
No she wouldn’t. That is what would have been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.0 -
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?0 -
No, I'd put it at a 75% chance, no higher.Mysticrose said:
99.99999%MarqueeMark said:
98% now I'd say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
Only something like HMQ dropping dead would halt it now.0 -
Well, we've had almost all other jokers played in Brexit, so....Mysticrose said:
99.99999%MarqueeMark said:
98% now I'd say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
Only something like HMQ dropping dead would halt it now.0 -
Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?2
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C4 really are useless, aren’t they?MarqueeMark said:C4 News: "Jo Swinson, leader of the SNP..."
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even before the FTPA someone would only be called to see Lizzy if they could demonstrate that they could form a government. the only difference is now that when the VoNC happens the PM can't instantly call for a GEydoethur said:
Groans gently.Barnesian said:
We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.ydoethur said:
No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.Barnesian said:If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?
If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.
He would be mad to do it.
Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
No she wouldn’t. That is what would ave been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.0 -
But they currently all are! So it cancels itself out.TudorRose said:
But the SNP probably wouldn't support that...!justin124 said:
This is now well beyond a joke; anyone seen to muck around with dates like this is not going to impress the public.
There's only so mucu preparation you can do before the starting gun is fired for an election, they need to settle it already and put elections departments out of their misery already.0 -
There is nothing in the FTPA about the appointment, resignation or dismissal of a Prime Minister.ydoethur said:
Groans gently.Barnesian said:
We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.ydoethur said:
No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.Barnesian said:If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?
If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.
He would be mad to do it.
Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
No she wouldn’t. That is what would ave been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.0 -
Also in December 1918, there were no benefits associated with t'internet, mobiles or Twitterjustin124 said:
Or half the country votes on the 10th and the other half on the 11th!AndyJS said:
Maybe they can compromise with the 10th or 11th.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Until 1918 there was not a fixed date for a General Election in that polling stretched over a few weeks in different areas of the country.Also In 1945 Polling Day in Scotland was a week later than elsewhere.
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I’ve been piling on it all over the weekend so I’m a winner.MarqueeMark said:
Well, we've had almost all other jokers played in Brexit, so....Mysticrose said:
99.99999%MarqueeMark said:
98% now I'd say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
Only something like HMQ dropping dead would halt it now.
Too early to put any money on a Johnson majority though.0 -
Jon Snow!MarqueeMark said:C4 News: "Jo Swinson, leader of the SNP..."
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Time_to_Leave said:
Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
The funny thing about it is that Johnson really really won't want to lose the one-line bill. Given the number of recalcitrants floating between lobbies on both sides he needs either the LibDems or the SNP, or preferably both. That's assuming Labour don't belatedly join the feast.
So if Jo Swinson really holds out I suspect Johnson will have to yield.0 -
Not quite true. For example, Bonar Law was called on to form a government in 1916 even though it was fairly clear that without Lloyd George’s support he couldn’t do it. And, indeed, didn’t, returning the Commission and advising George V to send for Lloyd George.spudgfsh said:
even before the FTPA someone would only be called to see Lizzy if they could demonstrate that they could form a government. the only difference is now that when the VoNC happens the PM can't instantly call for a GEydoethur said:
Groans gently.Barnesian said:
We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.ydoethur said:
No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.Barnesian said:If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?
If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.
He would be mad to do it.
Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
No she wouldn’t. That is what would ave been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.
Admittedly the circumstances there were somewhat unusual.0 -
If Boris gets a majority, he's going to ram through Brexit by year end, isn't he?
MPs are going to have to be opening their Xmas presents in the Chamber.0 -
To stop ABDPJohnson and his minders from indulging in hanky panky, of course.solarflare said:Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?
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Maybe polling stations could be open overnight. 5pm to midday the next day should allow everyone to vote. Better than the current arrangement in fact.GIN1138 said:0 -
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
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Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest0 -
Jon Snow way past retirement. Very hard for his interviewees on news tonight on grounds he didn’t have a clue what he was saying how could they?0
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Are we really going to see something as absurd as a proposed Bill for a GE on 12th defeated, so that parliament can try to force through a bill for the 9th instead?
Even know the reasons for the argument over the dates it is such a small difference it is getting silly, even more so if they start going for 10th or 11th.0 -
How do the Brexit Party support Johnson if his manifesto is for this deal.
If the polls over the next week show the Tories losing support to the BP what does Johnson do.
Does Farage really want to go away quietly ?
Doesn’t the fact there is a deal now help the Lib Dems reduce some of the damage of their revoke policy . You’ve seen the deal , is this what you really want ? If not vote for us?
On the face of it the polls look great for the Tories but behind that there’s a lot of moving pieces.0 -
It would be ok to spend money once we had certainty about the impact. But the campaign ran when there was no clear way to "Get Ready for Brexit" since we did not know what Brexit was (is) going to look like.kle4 said:
Ah, so your concern is not that it was spent at all, but that it was not spent in an effective manner. That's different.Benpointer said:
Without knowing what type of Brexit we were getting (and we still don't know) "Get Ready for Brexit" was completely pointless as an advertising campaign. The shallowness of the information available on the government websites was testament to that.kle4 said:
I think we have to be fair to Boris in that but for a fairly close vote last week on a timetable motion, we likely would have Brexited in just a few days from now, or a couple of weeks afterwards. We genuinely did come close to Brexiting and should have been prepared. And if the getting ready was for no deal, it would be deeply irresponsible to assume that the EU would play ball. Very little chance they would not, but we'd want to bank everything on that? There's many things to criticise Boris for, but after proving he was working to get a deal and was not wasting time, there really was a chance we'd Brexit on time.Benpointer said:
Not messing about!?Big_G_NorthWales said:Yellowhammer stood down
Boris not messing about
He's been messing about spaffing taxpayers' money up the wall (as the saying goes) on 'Get Ready for Brexit' ads for the past two months!
Therefore the money was an outrageous waste of taxes.0 -
Well, I've heard it was cancelled. They couldn't find Three Wise Men.JackW said:
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
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An election is called unless a vote of confidence is passed within two weeks. The PM remains in office until that time. Corbyn would not be appointed without a general election first as there is no way he can win a vote of confidence. (This is largely because he is even worse than Johnson which is saying quite something.)rpjs said:
There is nothing in the FTPA about the appointment, resignation or dismissal of a Prime Minister.ydoethur said:
Groans gently.Barnesian said:
We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.ydoethur said:
No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.Barnesian said:If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?
If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.
He would be mad to do it.
Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
No she wouldn’t. That is what would ave been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.
I find it very frustrating that people cannot grasp this basic point of procedure and that it has to be argued over and over again.0 -
It would make watching the results less tiring too!JohnLilburne said:
Maybe polling stations could be open overnight. 5pm to midday the next day should allow everyone to vote. Better than the current arrangement in fact.GIN1138 said:0 -
There are very few innocents on display here to be massacred, Your Grace.JackW said:
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
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If you are a diehard No Dealer you will already be voting Brexit Party anyway.nico67 said:How do the Brexit Party support Johnson if his manifesto is for this deal.
If the polls over the next week show the Tories losing support to the BP what does Johnson do.
Does Farage really want to go away quietly ?
Doesn’t the fact there is a deal now help the Lib Dems reduce some of the damage of their revoke policy . You’ve seen the deal , is this what you really want ? If not vote for us?
On the face of it the polls look great for the Tories but behind that there’s a lot of moving pieces.
Provided the Tories keep losing fewer Leave voters to the Brexit Party than Labour keep losing Remain voters to the LDs the Tories should still win an overall majority0 -
The queen dropping dead at 75% chance, no higherBenpointer said:
No, I'd put it at a 75% chance, no higher.Mysticrose said:
99.99999%MarqueeMark said:
98% now I'd say.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My prediction was 95% certain pre xmas election a couple of weeks agoMysticrose said:So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.
Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
Only something like HMQ dropping dead would halt it now.
Poor Queenie0 -
WhoBenpointer said:Anyone heard from Arcuri lately?
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Surely it just needs to get amended "substitute xth for 12th" and then voted on. So BoJo has put up his bill, the LDs and SNP get their amendment, honours are even. If he's pulling the WAIB I don't see what the problem is.Mysticrose said:Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
The funny thing about it is that Johnson really really won't want to lose the one-line bill. Given the number of recalcitrants floating between lobbies on both sides he needs either the LibDems or the SNP, or preferably both. That's assuming Labour don't belatedly join the feast.
So if Jo Swinson really holds out I suspect Johnson will have to yield.0 -
“Lesson 1: How To Deselect Your Current Labour MP In Five Easy Steps”Danny565 said:1 -
Farage is currently lost. He's seen his posh boy fake man of the people schtick usurped by Boris.The_Taxman said:
I suspect Farage has an electoral pact with BJ. Farage has been too quiet today. It makes sense to get the election triggered before announcing any pact. What could TBP gain, a dozen or so safe Tory seats have MPs with whip withdrawn. Coupon elections with ideologically similar parties can happen...kle4 said:
Absolutely it will. But even accepting that argument as true for a moment, Farage and co have to know that it is Boris Brexit or no Brexit, so I wonder how many of their supporters will walk their leaders' talk.Benpointer said:If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?
He tried to counter strike over prorogation but badly misjudged the views of potential Brexit supporters.
Once we go past the 31st of October we'll see more Farage again.1 -
He did look ill/old and really rather confused. Odd.egg said:Jon Snow way past retirement. Very hard for his interviewees on news tonight on grounds he didn’t have a clue what he was saying how could they?
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Why are people quick to associate this sweet smile lady with blood and guts mutilation and mayhem?JackW said:
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
Just embrace the beautiful symmetry of a FTPA we have because it was a libdem condition of coalition government being butchered by the libdem leader without any nod to her role in the acts creation, the chaos it’s caused, or her role in the cast of that government.0 -
Yes , it will be a nasty , vindictive few weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest0 -
I am reporting what has been said on BBC by Newsnight reporter Nick Watt.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest0 -
Agreed. He has no power, but oddly will look to the uninterested observer like he has it all.Mysticrose said:Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
The funny thing about it is that Johnson really really won't want to lose the one-line bill. Given the number of recalcitrants floating between lobbies on both sides he needs either the LibDems or the SNP, or preferably both. That's assuming Labour don't belatedly join the feast.
So if Jo Swinson really holds out I suspect Johnson will have to yield.0 -
Titter .... or a virgin !!!!!!!!!MarqueeMark said:
Well, I've heard it was cancelled. They couldn't find Three Wise Men.JackW said:
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
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Ooh, sexism!!Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
What about Johnson - wouldn't he have Nativity Plays to attend too? He has more children than Swinson - quite a few more, I believe.0 -
Might that not lose for the same reason May to resign in Q2 lost? Even if he announces his resignation in December he might remain 'caretaker leader' until his successor is elected in which case the bookies will declare 2020 to be the winner.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn to resign in 2019 looks a good bet....Casino_Royale said:I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.
Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?
I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.
In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.0 -
That’s something to look forward to.Alistair said:
Farage is currently lost. He's seen his posh boy fake man of the people schtick usurped by Boris.The_Taxman said:
I suspect Farage has an electoral pact with BJ. Farage has been too quiet today. It makes sense to get the election triggered before announcing any pact. What could TBP gain, a dozen or so safe Tory seats have MPs with whip withdrawn. Coupon elections with ideologically similar parties can happen...kle4 said:
Absolutely it will. But even accepting that argument as true for a moment, Farage and co have to know that it is Boris Brexit or no Brexit, so I wonder how many of their supporters will walk their leaders' talk.Benpointer said:If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?
He tried to counter strike over prorogation but badly misjudged the views of potential Brexit supporters.
Once we go past the 31st of October we'll see more Farage again.
Well, for those with masochistic tendencies anyway.0 -
The earlier date gives Boris more days to get his Bill through by year end... Just concede it, Boris.JohnLilburne said:
Surely it just needs to get amended "substitute xth for 12th" and then voted on. So BoJo has put up his bill, the LDs and SNP get their amendment, honours are even. If he's pulling the WAIB I don't see what the problem is.Mysticrose said:Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
The funny thing about it is that Johnson really really won't want to lose the one-line bill. Given the number of recalcitrants floating between lobbies on both sides he needs either the LibDems or the SNP, or preferably both. That's assuming Labour don't belatedly join the feast.
So if Jo Swinson really holds out I suspect Johnson will have to yield.2 -
Ist January 2020MarqueeMark said:If Boris gets a majority, he's going to ram through Brexit by year end, isn't he?
MPs are going to have to be opening their Xmas presents in the Chamber.0 -
Like the past three and a half years have been all sweetness and light....!Yorkcity said:
Yes , it will be a nasty , vindictive few weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest1 -
Labour are falling apart in front of our eyes. If Jezza has a successful election I will be tremendously impressed to be honest, it will show him to be one of the greatest political campaigners of our age. Because right now Labours position looks abysmal.0
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Well, we *think* he has quite a few more. Nobody seems to be quite sure how many he has - including Johnson himself.Peter_the_Punter said:
Ooh, sexism!!Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
What about Johnson - wouldn't he have Nativity Plays to attend too? He has more children than Swinson - quite a few more, I believe.
Oddly, I have never met a woman who wasn’t totally sure how many children she had. Men just don’t seem to have the same ability to count for some obscure reason.0 -
I watched it live Justinjustin124 said:
I am reporting what has been said on BBC by Newsnight reporter Nick Watt.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest1 -
We know he doesn't have any pressing appointments for that day because he wants the GE then! So as an attempted gag it falls rather flat.Peter_the_Punter said:
Ooh, sexism!!Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
What about Johnson - wouldn't he have Nativity Plays to attend too? He has more children than Swinson - quite a few more, I believe.
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He might enjoy Watson have to watch Brexit go through if he resigns on the night of the election!Philip_Thompson said:
Might that not lose for the same reason May to resign in Q2 lost? Even if he announces his resignation in December he might remain 'caretaker leader' until his successor is elected in which case the bookies will declare 2020 to be the winner.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn to resign in 2019 looks a good bet....Casino_Royale said:I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.
Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?
I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.
In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.0 -
I’m most looking forward to the post-election panto in the House to be honest.JackW said:
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
“Where’s my majority”? “It’s behind you”.1 -
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The last December election was in 1923.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also in December 1918, there were no benefits associated with t'internet, mobiles or Twitterjustin124 said:
Or half the country votes on the 10th and the other half on the 11th!AndyJS said:
Maybe they can compromise with the 10th or 11th.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Until 1918 there was not a fixed date for a General Election in that polling stretched over a few weeks in different areas of the country.Also In 1945 Polling Day in Scotland was a week later than elsewhere.0 -
Thursday is convenient in that it gives a weekend to get a most of a new govt in place by Monday morning as you’ve got two weekend days to play with.kle4 said:
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?
That said it only became a convention within ( just about) living memory.0 -
One distinct advantage of Thursday is that poor sods up all night until Friday lunchtime have the weekend to recover.kle4 said:
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?0 -
He hasMarqueeMark said:
The earlier date gives Boris more days to get his Bill through by year end... Just concede it, Boris.JohnLilburne said:
Surely it just needs to get amended "substitute xth for 12th" and then voted on. So BoJo has put up his bill, the LDs and SNP get their amendment, honours are even. If he's pulling the WAIB I don't see what the problem is.Mysticrose said:Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
The funny thing about it is that Johnson really really won't want to lose the one-line bill. Given the number of recalcitrants floating between lobbies on both sides he needs either the LibDems or the SNP, or preferably both. That's assuming Labour don't belatedly join the feast.
So if Jo Swinson really holds out I suspect Johnson will have to yield.0 -
Labour leaders have tended to go the “resign with immediate effect” route of late - Brown, Miliband - but I think you’re onto something there. If JC resigns I can imagine him wanting to stay in situ to try and give a protege a leg up.Philip_Thompson said:
Might that not lose for the same reason May to resign in Q2 lost? Even if he announces his resignation in December he might remain 'caretaker leader' until his successor is elected in which case the bookies will declare 2020 to be the winner.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn to resign in 2019 looks a good bet....Casino_Royale said:I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.
Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?
I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.
In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.0 -
Please show me the statute or convention that says "The PM remains in office until that time". The convention before the FTPA was that the administration would resign on losing a VONC. If the outgoing PM could persuade the monarch it is appropriate to dissolve Parliament under the Lascalles principles, then the outgoing administration would be asked to stay on as a caretaker government. Essentially the FTPA has wound us back to the 19th century when a government that lost the confidence of the house could not necessarily expect the monarch to dissolve Parliament and so the LOTO would be summoned to attempt to form an adminstration.ydoethur said:
An election is called unless a vote of confidence is passed within two weeks. The PM remains in office until that time. Corbyn would not be appointed without a general election first as there is no way he can win a vote of confidence. (This is largely because he is even worse than Johnson which is saying quite something.)rpjs said:
There is nothing in the FTPA about the appointment, resignation or dismissal of a Prime Minister.ydoethur said:
Groans gently.
No she wouldn’t. That is what would ave been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.
I find it very frustrating that people cannot grasp this basic point of procedure and that it has to be argued over and over again.
You cannot have a motion "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government" - the only form of words that stops the FPTA countdown - passed for a government that does not yet exist. It therefore follows that the monarch should commission the LOTO to try to form a government and get the VOC passed. Under the FPTA it is clear that the outgoing administration must resign or be dismissed if it refuses to resign so that the possibility of a VOC being passed can be attempted. Any other reading makes the whole VOC being passed within 14 days provision pointless.0 -
That said, there are a number of compelling arguments, both logistical and humanitarian, for securing ballot boxes overnight and counting the following day.Alphabet_Soup said:
One distinct advantage of Thursday is that poor sods up all night until Friday lunchtime have the weekend to recover.kle4 said:
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?0 -
Thanks Big_GBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Agreed. Things could go horribly wrong in the election if the public decide the best way to finish this is either with Johnson’s deal or the Lib Dem revoke policy .numbertwelve said:Labour are falling apart in front of our eyes. If Jezza has a successful election I will be tremendously impressed to be honest, it will show him to be one of the greatest political campaigners of our age. Because right now Labours position looks abysmal.
0 -
No one answered my question earlier. Where is the definitive statement that we don't have time to include 16 and 17 year olds (who are already registered as it stands) for the election?0
-
There were no internet or mobiles in 1923 either!justin124 said:
The last December election was in 1923.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also in December 1918, there were no benefits associated with t'internet, mobiles or Twitterjustin124 said:
Or half the country votes on the 10th and the other half on the 11th!AndyJS said:
Maybe they can compromise with the 10th or 11th.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Until 1918 there was not a fixed date for a General Election in that polling stretched over a few weeks in different areas of the country.Also In 1945 Polling Day in Scotland was a week later than elsewhere.0 -
Neither SNP or Libdems sound completely on board with pre Christmas GE yet IMO, that’s what makes all the money I have on it more exciting.justin124 said:
I am reporting what has been said on BBC by Newsnight reporter Nick Watt.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest
It’s a huge political equation, you can only look at it properly out a bubble without bias.
1. It’s a dead Parliament. It’s not going anywhere. On the other hand, has passed a QS, thirty majority for brexit. And not only two years old but an election might delivery it right back where we are if it’s brexit v remain and remain voters know how to organise in each seat.
2. Libdems want no deal off the table. But their real fear is labour not taking brexit off the table after the second reading.
3. Good argument from SNP on C4 news. Even if we get all 59 seats it means fiddly squats if Boris is in with healthy majority for five years.
Makes you wonder if LD and SNP not just teasing the Johnson, but labour kicking for a few days before closing up shop for Christmas.0 -
People like to reference Cromwell in these times, well in his time in power MPs worked in the Chamber on Christmas.MarqueeMark said:If Boris gets a majority, he's going to ram through Brexit by year end, isn't he?
MPs are going to have to be opening their Xmas presents in the Chamber.
Why, on Christmas Day in 1656 MPs discussed amendments to the Bill for the Forest of Deane, which was surely a worthy cause indeed..
Though it was noted that the House was sparsely populated due to the day. Someone wanted to move a short bill to prevent it, but others complained he had had plenty of time to provide for such a law, and it was too late to rush it now (not that it stopped it). How things change.0 -
The media and journalists will think they’ve just landed the jackpot.
After years of Brexit drama they now have an election to cover .1 -
Spoilsportydoethur said:
That said, there are a number of compelling arguments, both logistical and humanitarian, for securing ballot boxes overnight and counting the following day.Alphabet_Soup said:
One distinct advantage of Thursday is that poor sods up all night until Friday lunchtime have the weekend to recover.kle4 said:
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?0 -
I suspect Labour will get at least 29%. Seat no's harder to predict but I cannot see Labour doing worse than 1983.numbertwelve said:Labour are falling apart in front of our eyes. If Jezza has a successful election I will be tremendously impressed to be honest, it will show him to be one of the greatest political campaigners of our age. Because right now Labours position looks abysmal.
0 -
Justin tends to jump on immediate comments but fails to see the nuance as the conversation develops. The interviewer did not tell her WAIB had been pulled and if she had known she would have had the information she needed. Even so she said she would study the detailBarnesian said:
Thanks Big_GBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Corbyn could yet tell Boris: bring the WAIB back - we'll three line whip to abstain. If you take the election off the table.egg said:
Neither SNP or Libdems sound completely on board with pre Christmas GE yet IMO, that’s what makes all the money I have on it more exciting.justin124 said:
I am reporting what has been said on BBC by Newsnight reporter Nick Watt.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not quite Justinjustin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
She said that without knowing the WAIB has been withdrawn and did say she would look at the detail
It is going to be a GE between the 9th and 12th December and I suggest you brace yourself for it to be honest
It’s a huge political equation, you can only look at it properly out a bubble without bias.
1. It’s a dead Parliament. It’s not going anywhere. On the other hand, has passed a QS, thirty majority for brexit. And not only two years old but an election might delivery it right back where we are if it’s brexit v remain and remain voters know how to organise in each seat.
2. Libdems want no deal off the table. But their real fear is labour not taking brexit off the table after the second reading.
3. Good argument from SNP on C4 news. Even if we get all 59 seats it means fiddly squats if Boris is in with healthy majority for five years.
Makes you wonder if LD and SNP not just teasing the Johnson, but labour kicking for a few days before closing up shop for Christmas.
Just to piss off the LibDems.....0 -
I don't have one, but should such a change to the franchise be rushed through when we are not certain if we have time?Alistair said:No one answered my question earlier. Where is the definitive statement that we don't have time to include 16 and 17 year olds (who are already registered as it stands) for the election?
0 -
So they might need until 6 Nov to pass one line election date bill and NI budget. If they are saying notwithstanding the FTPA the election will be on Dec x, then AFAICS there is really nothing stopping the bill saying
Notwithstanding the FTPA the election will be on Dec 5 with parliament rising (on Nov 6/)as soon as possible after this bill and NI budget bills are passed.
Can't see them reducing it to a 22 day campaign (Nov 28), but do they really need more than 29 days?0 -
My only acting credit to date was as one of the Three Wise Men at my primary school, I think in 1982. I was the one wot carried Myrrh.MarqueeMark said:
Well, I've heard it was cancelled. They couldn't find Three Wise Men.JackW said:
Yes. Swinson is playing Herod in a Conservative "Decapitation Strategy" scene.Time_to_Leave said:Is Swinson expected at a Nativity Play on the 12th or something?
0 -
You are categorically wrong. Read the Cabinet Manual.rpjs said:
Please show me the statute or convention that says "The PM remains in office until that time". The convention before the FTPA was that the administration would resign on losing a VONC. If the outgoing PM could persuade the monarch it is appropriate to dissolve Parliament under the Lascalles principles, then the outgoing administration would be asked to stay on as a caretaker government. Essentially the FTPA has wound us back to the 19th century when a government that lost the confidence of the house could not necessarily expect the monarch to dissolve Parliament and so the LOTO would be summoned to attempt to form an adminstration.ydoethur said:
An election is called unless a vote of confidence is passed within two weeks. The PM remains in office until that time. Corbyn would not be appointed without a general election first as there is no way he can win a vote of confidence. (This is largely because he is even worse than Johnson which is saying quite something.)rpjs said:
There is nothing in the FTPA about the appointment, resignation or dismissal of a Prime Minister.ydoethur said:
Groans gently.
No she wouldn’t. That is what would ave been required under the OLD system. The new one states that for a new PM a to be appointed they must have a vote of confidence passed in them.
I find it very frustrating that people cannot grasp this basic point of procedure and that it has to be argued over and over again.
You cannot have a motion "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government" - the only form of words that stops the FPTA countdown - passed for a government that does not yet exist. It therefore follows that the monarch should commission the LOTO to try to form a government and get the VOC passed. Under the FPTA it is clear that the outgoing administration must resign or be dismissed if it refuses to resign so that the possibility of a VOC being passed can be attempted. Any other reading makes the whole VOC being passed within 14 days provision pointless.
The government remains in place through the 14 days and the election campaign unless or until 'the usual channels' results in a change of government.0 -
No it wasn’t. The convention was that there would be an election, DURING WHICH THE INCUMBENT PRIME MINISTER STAYED IN PLACE. There has been one occasion since the war when that was needed -1979. I think you will find James Callaghan was still PM until after the election.rpjs said:
Please show me the statute or convention that says "The PM remains in office until that time". The convention before the FTPA was that the administration would resign on losing a VONC.
The rest of your post is wishful thinking, aka complete rubbish. Do you honestly think the Queen would summon an alternative candidate unless it was clear as result of a vote that they could command a majority? A motion could be put down as an indication, before the formal vote later.0 -
That's true, and I will confess only my sense of drama requires such a convention.ydoethur said:
That said, there are a number of compelling arguments, both logistical and humanitarian, for securing ballot boxes overnight and counting the following day.Alphabet_Soup said:
One distinct advantage of Thursday is that poor sods up all night until Friday lunchtime have the weekend to recover.kle4 said:
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?0 -
In my view Cromwell should be regarded as the enemy of the people.kle4 said:
People like to reference Cromwell in these times, well in his time in power MPs worked in the Chamber on Christmas.MarqueeMark said:If Boris gets a majority, he's going to ram through Brexit by year end, isn't he?
MPs are going to have to be opening their Xmas presents in the Chamber.
Why, on Christmas Day in 1656 MPs discussed amendments to the Bill for the Forest of Deane, which was surely a worthy cause indeed..
Though it was noted that the House was sparsely populated due to the day. Someone wanted to move a short bill to prevent it, but others complained he had had plenty of time to provide for such a law, and it was too late to rush it now (not that it stopped it). How things change.
Did the puritans not want to ban all the Christmas fun, which to be honest isn’t Christian but merged in with prior paganism?0 -
If election night is cancelled I will go on hunger strike. (Only joking).ydoethur said:
That said, there are a number of compelling arguments, both logistical and humanitarian, for securing ballot boxes overnight and counting the following day.Alphabet_Soup said:
One distinct advantage of Thursday is that poor sods up all night until Friday lunchtime have the weekend to recover.kle4 said:
I don't understand your point. If Thursdays are a pointless convention, why is it 'good' to have it on any other day, in fact why would it matter at all that they are on Thursdays? You must have a reason to not want it them on Thursdays otherwise why object to it?JohnLilburne said:
It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Elections take place on arbitrary days of the week all across the world, if there is a benefit to one or another there's clearly no agreement on which day it is - that being the case, what is the harm for nation's to have consistency about the day they generally hold them?
So yes, it's a pointless convention, but thing with pointless conventions is if they don't harm anything why change them?0 -
You know nothing, Jon SnurrrSunil_Prasannan said:
Jon Snow!MarqueeMark said:C4 News: "Jo Swinson, leader of the SNP..."
1 -
Or postal votes?Sunil_Prasannan said:
There were no internet or mobiles in 1923 either!justin124 said:
The last December election was in 1923.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Also in December 1918, there were no benefits associated with t'internet, mobiles or Twitterjustin124 said:
Or half the country votes on the 10th and the other half on the 11th!AndyJS said:
Maybe they can compromise with the 10th or 11th.justin124 said:Swinson rejects the 12th December !
Until 1918 there was not a fixed date for a General Election in that polling stretched over a few weeks in different areas of the country.Also In 1945 Polling Day in Scotland was a week later than elsewhere.0 -
How many of the public are going to say "You know, I think what the public REALLY want is a LOT more dicking around on the deal with the EU, and then have the Govt. say "We have negotiated a really shit deal: please vote it down in a Referendum that we will hold sometime in the summer, so that you can get real comfortable with just how shit a deal it was. Oh, and in the meantime, the SNP will get their referendum to break up the United Kingdom." Yep, that has to be real easy sell.....nico67 said:
Agreed. Things could go horribly wrong in the election if the public decide the best way to finish this is either with Johnson’s deal or the Lib Dem revoke policy .numbertwelve said:Labour are falling apart in front of our eyes. If Jezza has a successful election I will be tremendously impressed to be honest, it will show him to be one of the greatest political campaigners of our age. Because right now Labours position looks abysmal.
0 -
It says:justin124 said:
Nicholas Watt
@nicholaswatt
Jo Swinson says: “If Boris Johnson wants a General Election, then he could have supported our Bill for a General Election on December 9th. Instead, he has chosen to stick to his original plan for December 12th which we have already rejected.”
7:32 PM · Oct 28, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
but look at 20.03.
Nick Eardley
@nickeardleybbc
Jo Swinson to
@Channel4News
: We will see where we're at tomorrow. We'll see what the bill says.
7:54 PM · Oct 28, 2019·TweetDeck
Let's see what happens before jumping to conclusions. There is his original plan for Dec 12th (FTPA) and his new plan for Dec 12th (one-liner). The original plan has been rejected. The new plan is being closely examined as we speak.0 -
If you believe Labour will receive a shellacking in a Dec Election, then Corbyn is 7/2 to exit as leader in 2019. Isn't it common procedure to resign the day after a drubbing? Good Value??1
This discussion has been closed.