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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day Johnson wants for the general election the UK sunse

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day Johnson wants for the general election the UK sunset is the earliest for the year

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First! Like Leave......and goodness knows who in mid-December....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is the sun setting early on BoZo's career?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Engagement seems high. People would vote if there was an election, but I don't think there will be.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited October 2019
    If the EU does come back with an extension to 31/01 then Corbyn will need to be specific about what he needs to be reassured no deal is off the table.

    Either that or he flatly refuses to agree to an election until Brexit is resolved.

    I have no idea how it will play out if Boris refuses to put the WAB back in to play for fear of wrecking amendments.

    I would have thought that the opposition would be very aware that any major amendments would result in an immediate pulling of the bill so perhaps the governments concerns are overplayed. And indeed if they do end up pulling the bill the optics will be positive for them (game playing remainers thwarting Brexit etc) so there is little risk.

    If there isn't a WAB on the table and there isn't a GE then ultimately we are back to a no deal exit.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Crossover! Con Maj shortening to become Fav. NOM drifting, and Lab Maj out to 20/1 from 12/1 last week.

    Best prices - Next UK GE

    Con Maj Evs
    NOM 11/10
    Lab Maj 20/1
    Any other party Maj 50\1
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SunnyJim said:

    I would have thought that the opposition would be very aware that any major amendments would result in an immediate pulling of the bill

    So the whole Parliamentary Sovereignty shtick was bullshit as well?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Crossover! Con Maj shortening to become Fav. NOM drifting, and Lab Maj out to 20/1 from 12/1 last week.

    Best prices - Next UK GE

    Con Maj Evs
    NOM 11/10
    Lab Maj 20/1
    Any other party Maj 50\1

    If we do end up having a GE and the Tories are returned with even a tiny majority they should at least be able to rely on their MPs to support the government in the next phase.

    If they gave the whip back to the independents they could pretty much deduct them from the Con total when it came to anything Brexit/FTA related.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited October 2019
    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    Agree - this harping on about daylight in the header just reinforces the impression that opposition parties are scared they might lose and are looking for excuses to avoid an election rather like they 've used any excuse to avoid a decision on Brexit. Truly one of the worst Parliaments ever.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If Labour won’t vote for an election surely this massively increases the chances of no deal on January 31st? (unless there are sufficient votes to pass the WA largely unamended). Because if they won’t do it now, when will they ever do it?

    I think even the EU might say enough is enough if asked for another extension beyond that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    The Earth's elliptical orbit means that days (i.e. the interval between the Sun being due South) are more than 24 hours around the Winter Solstice as that's when the Earth is on the tightest part of its orbit. It also explains why it carries on getting darker in the mornings after 21/22 December.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    alex. said:

    If Labour won’t vote for an election surely this massively increases the chances of no deal on January 31st? (unless there are sufficient votes to pass the WA largely unamended). Because if they won’t do it now, when will they ever do it?

    I think even the EU might say enough is enough if asked for another extension beyond that.

    This is my thinking.

    At some point parliament is going to have to make a decision:

    1. WAB (no major amendments)
    2. GE
    3. No deal
    4. Revoke

    MPs are very rapidly running out of road and in truth Johnson could go on holiday and tell Corbyn to ring him when he's made a choice.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Incidentally as a matter of interest - has anyone in the EU Parliament tested the water to see if they can introduce “legislation” compelling EU leaders to agree to an extension (to avert no deal) if asked? Or is it just accepted that this is well beyond their competence?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    Local authorities might struggle to find people to man the polling stations and conduct the count as well. Of course the other issue is not necessarily that people won’t be willing to vote, but that December massively increases the chances of extreme weather events aka snow creating serious disruption.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    alex. said:

    Incidentally as a matter of interest - has anyone in the EU Parliament tested the water to see if they can introduce “legislation” compelling EU leaders to agree to an extension (to avert no deal) if asked? Or is it just accepted that this is well beyond their competence?

    Well beyond. EU Parliament only has powers as defined by treaty, it can't compel the council to do anything.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SunnyJim said:

    Crossover! Con Maj shortening to become Fav. NOM drifting, and Lab Maj out to 20/1 from 12/1 last week.

    Best prices - Next UK GE

    Con Maj Evs
    NOM 11/10
    Lab Maj 20/1
    Any other party Maj 50\1

    If we do end up having a GE and the Tories are returned with even a tiny majority they should at least be able to rely on their MPs to support the government in the next phase.

    If they gave the whip back to the independents they could pretty much deduct them from the Con total when it came to anything Brexit/FTA related.
    Con Maj with an ideologically pure set of Con MPs. The Conservative Party would own Brexit 100%. If it does turn out to be a cock-up (refer to countless PM Cameron and Chancellor Osborne warnings), then everyone and their dog will know who to blame.

    Leaving snakes with no stones to hide under is going to lead to a swift and brutal demise.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    alex. said:

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    Local authorities might struggle to find people to man the polling stations and conduct the count as well. Of course the other issue is not necessarily that people won’t be willing to vote, but that December massively increases the chances of extreme weather events aka snow creating serious disruption.
    Snow doesn’t usually start until late December (How many white christmases have you seen?) and January is the coldest month. My most recent experience with severe snow was in March...

    An alternative hypothesis is that people haven’t got much else better to do on dark winter evenings than vote, so do, unlike summer evenings. The facts remain - highest turnouts October and February, lowest ever in June.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tlg86 said:

    The Earth's elliptical orbit means that days (i.e. the interval between the Sun being due South) are more than 24 hours around the Winter Solstice as that's when the Earth is on the tightest part of its orbit. It also explains why it carries on getting darker in the mornings after 21/22 December.

    Thank you - I’d wondered at what was behind that!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    I think there will be a December General Election. I'm about 60% sure on that, which means I'm not certain, but I think there will be.

    And I have a strong sense this won't go as well for the Conservatives as some of their supporters on here seem to be telling us.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1187500490562703366?s=20
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Con Maj with an ideologically pure set of Con MPs. The Conservative Party would own Brexit 100%. If it does turn out to be a cock-up (refer to countless PM Cameron and Chancellor Osborne warnings), then everyone and their dog will know who to blame.

    Leaving snakes with no stones to hide under is going to lead to a swift and brutal demise.

    A good reason for Johnson to put the WAB back to parliament on the understanding that any major amendments will see it withdrawn.

    If that causes a no deal exit then it will be very much an opposition issue.

    I find it very doubtful we will get to that point though, far more likely is the extension goes to 31/01 and Corbyn is given whatever additional assurances are required to enable a GE in December.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    I agree. I think Dec 12th is a terrible date. A week earlier would have been better. But this is not going to go down well.

    And, yes, there's a huge difference between mid-December and mid-February.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.

    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I agree. I think Dec 12th is a terrible date. A week earlier would have been better. But this is not going to go down well.

    I agree a week earlier would have been preferable but a 12/12 poll still makes more sense than trying to do it in January when the weather IS likely to be bad.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited October 2019

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I have a strong sense this won't go as well for the Conservatives as some of their supporters on here seem to be telling us.

    Shhhh.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    Lloyd George 1918?

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    I heard 1910. But that one didn’t backfire.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    With any luck between now and 12th December some innovative person will invent the overcoat, and with any luck Street lighting.

    Who in thier right mind thinks we as a population are so pathetic that we can't get out in cold windy conditions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Gloooooooria Bozza in excelsis
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    alex. said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    I heard 1910. But that one didn’t backfire.
    And nor did 1918
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    alex. said:

    alex. said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    I heard 1910. But that one didn’t backfire.
    And nor did 1918
    Nothing else going on in and before 1918 that may effect a vote.

    A very calm and peaceful era.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    philiph said:

    With any luck between now and 12th December some innovative person will invent the overcoat, and with any luck Street lighting.

    Who in thier right mind thinks we as a population are so pathetic that we can't get out in cold windy conditions.

    That's a slightly supercilious remark, if I may say.

    No one doubts that people can get out in dark and cold conditions but you have to appreciate that a lot of people are not as politically motivated as posters to politicalbetting.com. Most people, contrary to the prevailing mood here, are completely bored by Brexit. 'Getting out' to vote is fraught at the best of times and I notice that all the examples below for voter turnout are from over half a century ago or more.

    It will impact on turnout. It's also going to be a very long campaign.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Pulpstar said:

    Gloooooooria Bozza in excelsis

    On the first day of Christmas the Tories sent to me
    A Bozza in Oswestry
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923
    Now that one didn’t go great!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.

    .

    1923.

    Google was my friend.

    And whilst you're right about it not turning out too well for Baldwin in that instance it was only a temporary setback. The Liberals on the other hand never recovered.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    I agree. I think Dec 12th is a terrible date. A week earlier would have been better. But this is not going to go down well.

    And, yes, there's a huge difference between mid-December and mid-February.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.

    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.
    Christ on a bike, it's only a fucking election ffs. If we all manage the biggest domestic logistical exercise of the whole year in December I think we can cast one vote which must be quicker, easier and is certainly cheaper than, let's say, sending one single Christmas card.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    alex. said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923
    Now that one didn’t go great!
    6th December 1923.

    Indeed it didn't.

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
    And correlation is definitely, definitely causation. No exceptions.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
    So, 4 years short of a century ago. Yep - that’s a telling precedent.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Engagement seems high. People would vote if there was an election, but I don't think there will be.

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    While I agree that winter is no bar to a high turnout, I think that unlikely to be true in Dec 2019. I detect little enthusiasm for yet another election (or referendum for that matter) and a great deal of Brexit fatigue. Indeed the Tory slogan of "Get Brexit Done" tries to exploit that fatigue.

    I would forecast a low turnout which I think probably benefits Remainers.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Ishmael_Z said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
    And correlation is definitely, definitely causation. No exceptions.
    Let's hope that this campaign, if it happens, is not marked by irascibility on here.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
    And correlation is definitely, definitely causation. No exceptions.
    Let's hope that this campaign, if it happens, is not marked by irascibility on here.
    It will be a very nasty campaign if it happens, according to Downing St Sources.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019

    philiph said:

    With any luck between now and 12th December some innovative person will invent the overcoat, and with any luck Street lighting.

    Who in thier right mind thinks we as a population are so pathetic that we can't get out in cold windy conditions.

    That's a slightly supercilious remark, if I may say.

    No one doubts that people can get out in dark and cold conditions but you have to appreciate that a lot of people are not as politically motivated as posters to politicalbetting.com. Most people, contrary to the prevailing mood here, are completely bored by Brexit. 'Getting out' to vote is fraught at the best of times and I notice that all the examples below for voter turnout are from over half a century ago or more.

    It will impact on turnout. It's also going to be a very long campaign.
    The examples are from when there were winter votes, which happen to be ages ago.

    If people are motivated they vote. You can argue about if voting should be compulsory, but right now in our system it is the persons choice.

    Percentages voting in most of the elections since 2000 have been lower than average, and these were held in late spring or summer.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foxy said:

    Engagement seems high. People would vote if there was an election, but I don't think there will be.

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    While I agree that winter is no bar to a high turnout, I think that unlikely to be true in Dec 2019. I detect little enthusiasm for yet another election (or referendum for that matter) and a great deal of Brexit fatigue. Indeed the Tory slogan of "Get Brexit Done" tries to exploit that fatigue.

    I would forecast a low turnout which I think probably benefits Remainers.
    Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.......,,,,,,,,,,,,
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    all the examples below for voter turnout are from over half a century ago or more.

    1974 is “over half a century ago or more”?

    What’s that about politics and being able to count.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    Can anyone actually discern any logic to Corbyn’s position now other than trying to blackmail Parliament into making him PM (as alternative to no deal)? I accept that others may be using blackmail to an extent to get what they want, but his is the most blatant now, and devoid of alternative options.

    He’s opposed to the deal, opposed to no deal, opposed to a GE, opposed to a referendum on the “Tory” deal, opposed to a “GNU” not led by himself...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
    And correlation is definitely, definitely causation. No exceptions.
    Let's hope that this campaign, if it happens, is not marked by irascibility on here.
    It will be a very nasty campaign if it happens, according to Downing St Sources.
    Oh I agree. And don't underestimate the superb nastiness of both Momentum and the Brexit Party.

    But I said 'on here'. Pb.com is a standout site for by-and-large bypassing a lot of the partisan trolling and flaming that goes on everywhere else. And, sounding a little like Mary Whitehouse, we've already had a full-bore "f***ing" on here this morning.

    I have a political persuasion, most of us do, but it would be great to keep this as objective as we can, especially as it's a betting site and I plan to continue splashing some cash in the markets :)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    edited October 2019
    So, the effect of increased postal voting will likely be a) people vote as soon as their papers come through, meaning Corbyn doesn't have time to improve his position through campaigning (or Tory cock ups) as he did in 2017.And b) the Brexit Party doesn't have time to take back all the voters they've lost since the Euros by promising a "clean break" or tearing into the deal. Looks like a win-win for Johnson to me.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861


    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.

    I disagree with this.

    It is still in term time, with very few exams to get in the way. The Students Unions and political societies will be helping to get the vote out with messages like "Now YOU can have your say on Brexit, don't waste it!".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Foxy said:

    Engagement seems high. People would vote if there was an election, but I don't think there will be.

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    While I agree that winter is no bar to a high turnout, I think that unlikely to be true in Dec 2019. I detect little enthusiasm for yet another election (or referendum for that matter) and a great deal of Brexit fatigue. Indeed the Tory slogan of "Get Brexit Done" tries to exploit that fatigue.

    I would forecast a low turnout which I think probably benefits Remainers.
    The demographic with highest turn out tends to be older.....
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    From HoC briefing paper on turnout, 2019 publication.

    Between 1922 and 1997, turnout at UK general elections remained above 71%, rising to over 80% in the general elections of 1950 and 1951. Turnout was only 57.2% in the 1918 General Election, although this was partly due to a low service vote and a large number of uncontested seats (107 out of a total of 707 seats). In 2001, turnout fell to 59.4%, its lowest level since 1918 and down 12% points compared with 1997. Although turnout rose again in 20052010, it was still below its 1997 level. In 2017 UK turnout was 66.8%
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    alex. said:

    Can anyone actually discern any logic to Corbyn’s position now other than trying to blackmail Parliament into making him PM (as alternative to no deal)? I accept that others may be using blackmail to an extent to get what they want, but his is the most blatant now, and devoid of alternative options.

    He’s opposed to the deal, opposed to no deal, opposed to a GE, opposed to a referendum on the “Tory” deal, opposed to a “GNU” not led by himself...

    Yes. I think Corbyn has had a good week. LIke the Conservatives he's got a split party over Europe AND the election timing. He's juggling competing forces. He does want an election but he doesn't trust Johnson one iota and he wants to be certain No Deal is taken off the table.

    In the longer term, he'd like a deal that keeps workers rights, maintains trading arrangements and he (probably) would prefer to put that back to the people to decide.

    It's not a sexy 'Get Brexit Done' slogan but considering how tricky Brexit is, and how split the country is, it's probably the closest thing to sanity out there.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I don't subscribe to the predicted low turnout theories.

    This GE will be polarizing with very distinct choices:

    Leave with a deal.

    R2.

    Revoke.


    Rarely (if ever) have I heard someone say they don't really care whether we leave the EU or not; the vast majority of voters will be invested and/or angry when it comes to the next GE.

    I see a strong turnout.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    Can anyone actually discern any logic to Corbyn’s position now other than trying to blackmail Parliament into making him PM (as alternative to no deal)? I accept that others may be using blackmail to an extent to get what they want, but his is the most blatant now, and devoid of alternative options.

    He’s opposed to the deal, opposed to no deal, opposed to a GE, opposed to a referendum on the “Tory” deal, opposed to a “GNU” not led by himself...

    Yes. I think Corbyn has had a good week. LIke the Conservatives he's got a split party over Europe AND the election timing. He's juggling competing forces. He does want an election but he doesn't trust Johnson one iota and he wants to be certain No Deal is taken off the table.

    In the longer term, he'd like a deal that keeps workers rights, maintains trading arrangements and he (probably) would prefer to put that back to the people to decide.

    It's not a sexy 'Get Brexit Done' slogan but considering how tricky Brexit is, and how split the country is, it's probably the closest thing to sanity out there.
    Has he explained how he thinks no deal can be taken “off the table”?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    eristdoof said:


    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.

    I disagree with this.

    It is still in term time
    So it is! Sorry my mistake. I had assumed it wasn't. Oxbridge will have gone down the previous week, but I think the others are all up until the 15th or thereabouts?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    SunnyJim said:

    I don't subscribe to the predicted low turnout theories.

    This GE will be polarizing with very distinct choices:

    Leave with a deal.

    R2.

    Revoke.


    Rarely (if ever) have I heard someone say they don't really care whether we leave the EU or not; the vast majority of voters will be invested and/or angry when it comes to the next GE.

    I see a strong turnout.

    You are being myopic I fear.

    I've heard tons and tons of people say they are totally bored and fed up with Brexit.

    Brexit bores the vast majority of people, just as the EU did. This is the fatal error that Brexiteers repeatedly fall into. And one of the major reasons why Labour will outperform current polling.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    SunnyJim said:

    I don't subscribe to the predicted low turnout theories.

    This GE will be polarizing with very distinct choices:

    Leave with a deal.

    R2.

    Revoke.


    Rarely (if ever) have I heard someone say they don't really care whether we leave the EU or not; the vast majority of voters will be invested and/or angry when it comes to the next GE.

    I see a strong turnout.

    You are being myopic I fear.

    I've heard tons and tons of people say they are totally bored and fed up with Brexit.

    Brexit bores the vast majority of people, just as the EU did. This is the fatal error that Brexiteers repeatedly fall into. And one of the major reasons why Labour will outperform current polling.
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone actually discern any logic to Corbyn’s position now other than trying to blackmail Parliament into making him PM (as alternative to no deal)? I accept that others may be using blackmail to an extent to get what they want, but his is the most blatant now, and devoid of alternative options.

    He’s opposed to the deal, opposed to no deal, opposed to a GE, opposed to a referendum on the “Tory” deal, opposed to a “GNU” not led by himself...

    Yes. I think Corbyn has had a good week. LIke the Conservatives he's got a split party over Europe AND the election timing. He's juggling competing forces. He does want an election but he doesn't trust Johnson one iota and he wants to be certain No Deal is taken off the table.

    In the longer term, he'd like a deal that keeps workers rights, maintains trading arrangements and he (probably) would prefer to put that back to the people to decide.

    It's not a sexy 'Get Brexit Done' slogan but considering how tricky Brexit is, and how split the country is, it's probably the closest thing to sanity out there.
    Has he explained how he thinks no deal can be taken “off the table”?
    Destroy the table?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    eristdoof said:


    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.

    I disagree with this.

    It is still in term time
    So it is! Sorry my mistake. I had assumed it wasn't. Oxbridge will have gone down the previous week, but I think the others are all up until the 15th or thereabouts?
    That assumes students stay up until the end of term or try to get home ASAP.....
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm tootling off for a coffee but my final remark is to repeat that this will not be a Brexit election. It will, of course, play its part but a vast host of other topics will come to the fore.

    Brexit will largely be left to an argument between the BXP and the Tories.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    I can do all sorts of things in the dark. Voting is the least of it.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    You are being myopic I fear.

    I've heard tons and tons of people say they are totally bored and fed up with Brexit.

    Brexit bores the vast majority of people, just as the EU did. This is the fatal error that Brexiteers repeatedly fall into. And one of the major reasons why Labour will outperform current polling.

    If you are correct then I would suggest that apathy will not be a positive for Labour.

    If you are motivated to Leave then the Tories are your only choice.

    If you want to Remain then it's the LD's.

    Brexit has sucked the oxygen out of politics such that there is little else that would motivate the apathetic other than the prospect of a resolution.

    Which leaves Labour's offering of another couple of years of wrangling rather unappealing.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    I can do all sorts of things in the dark. Voting is the least of it.

    You must have superpowers that allow you function in the dark :)

    Wow!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Of course this Parliament will not vote for an election. Never has the turkeys not voting for Christmas cliche been more apposite. The likes of Soubry , Hammond and Wollaston will be giving us the benefit of their wisdom for months yet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    I can do all sorts of things in the dark. Voting is the least of it.

    You must have superpowers that allow you function in the dark :)

    Wow!
    I sometimes cheat. There's these things called lights. If you switch them on the dark goes away.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
    When was that?
    6th December 1923

    The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
    And correlation is definitely, definitely causation. No exceptions.
    Let's hope that this campaign, if it happens, is not marked by irascibility on here.
    And, equally, that irascibility on here does not cause a general election.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    Of course this Parliament will not vote for an election. Never has the turkeys not voting for Christmas cliche been more apposite. The likes of Soubry , Hammond and Wollaston will be giving us the benefit of their wisdom for months yet.

    There is an element of counting chickens (assuming extension to 31/1) and chicken and egg (extension depends on the vote for an election (Macron) no deal off the table (Corbyn)). Soon parliament has to do something, like make a choice.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    I can do all sorts of things in the dark. Voting is the least of it.

    Admirer: May I kiss the hand that wrote Ulysses?
    Joyce: Certainly not, it did a lot of other things.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.

    We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    I can do all sorts of things in the dark. Voting is the least of it.

    You must have superpowers that allow you function in the dark :)

    Wow!
    I sometimes cheat. There's these things called lights. If you switch them on the dark goes away.
    I'm still hoping street lights are invented before a December election
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    So the message from Johnson is now: ‘Let’s not get Brexit done! Let’s have an election instead!’ I’d suggest the opposition parties should allow him to have his election, and point out to voters that he’s wasting their time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.

    The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.

    To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    I can do all sorts of things in the dark. Voting is the least of it.

    You must have superpowers that allow you function in the dark :)

    Wow!
    I sometimes cheat. There's these things called lights. If you switch them on the dark goes away.
    I'm still hoping street lights are invented before a December election
    Aren’t many councils currently in the process of uninventing them? ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    alex. said:

    I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.

    We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.

    @AlastairMeeks has made the latter point well on several occasions and he is right that it is time that our politicians learned some new tricks. A more consensual Parliament would be an improvement on the current dialogue of the deaf. There is more to rhetoric than shouting abuse. But there is absolutely no sign of this new trick being learned any time soon.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    alex. said:

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    Local authorities might struggle to find people to man the polling stations and conduct the count as well. Of course the other issue is not necessarily that people won’t be willing to vote, but that December massively increases the chances of extreme weather events aka snow creating serious disruption.
    Exactly. It’s risk mitigation.

    I don’t know what the weather was like in Feb 1974 but, if we had blizzards and heavy winds as can happen during Winter, that could certainly affect turnout. You can easily see it crippling Cumbria and rural Welsh and Scottish seats. If you pick a day in Winter to hold an election you increase the risk of such events - and you won’t know, for sure, until about 72 hours before the vote.

    So, it’s not just the daylight: it’s the unpredictable weather and temperature conditions.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Trying for a single issue election is rarely a good idea. The 'caller' may want a 'decision' on one particular issue, but complicating factors always arise. My wife and I watched QT last night (I know, I know) and it was pretty clear that the South Shields audience wanted both Brexit and a non-Tory Government. I realise that QT studio audiences are 'fixed' by the BBC but it seemed to us that while there appeared to be a belief that the EU was somehow responsible for their woes, there was an equal belief that de-industrialisation was due to Conservative policies. Ken Loach's views, for example, seemed very popular.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    I think there will be a December General Election. I'm about 60% sure on that, which means I'm not certain, but I think there will be.

    And I have a strong sense this won't go as well for the Conservatives as some of their supporters on here seem to be telling us.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1187500490562703366?s=20

    My (very centrist) wife thinks it’s a bad idea, that no-one will profit from it, and a Parliament even more hung than the current one will be returned.

    I often ask for her take on politics as she’s good at the ‘slap bang in the centre’ mood of those not usually very political.
  • I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    I agree. I think Dec 12th is a terrible date. A week earlier would have been better. But this is not going to go down well.

    And, yes, there's a huge difference between mid-December and mid-February.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.

    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.
    I assume the students will have left for their xmas holidays

    I do not know how this effects the GE
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    I think there will be a December General Election. I'm about 60% sure on that, which means I'm not certain, but I think there will be.

    And I have a strong sense this won't go as well for the Conservatives as some of their supporters on here seem to be telling us.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1187500490562703366?s=20

    My (very centrist) wife thinks it’s a bad idea, that no-one will profit from it, and a Parliament even more hung than the current one will be returned.

    I often ask for her take on politics as she’s good at the ‘slap bang in the centre’ mood of those not usually very political.
    I agree with your wife.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    kyf_100 said:

    So, the effect of increased postal voting will likely be a) people vote as soon as their papers come through, meaning Corbyn doesn't have time to improve his position through campaigning (or Tory cock ups) as he did in 2017.And b) the Brexit Party doesn't have time to take back all the voters they've lost since the Euros by promising a "clean break" or tearing into the deal. Looks like a win-win for Johnson to me.

    It’s high-risk and almost entirely unpredictable.

    Nevertheless, Johnson effectively doesn’t have much choice anymore but to gamble on it.

    And a gamble it very much is. Those polls aren’t sticky, and most people won’t really turn their conscious attention to it until the final two weeks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    alex. said:

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    Local authorities might struggle to find people to man the polling stations and conduct the count as well. Of course the other issue is not necessarily that people won’t be willing to vote, but that December massively increases the chances of extreme weather events aka snow creating serious disruption.
    Exactly. It’s risk mitigation.

    I don’t know what the weather was like in Feb 1974 but, if we had blizzards and heavy winds as can happen during Winter, that could certainly affect turnout. You can easily see it crippling Cumbria and rural Welsh and Scottish seats. If you pick a day in Winter to hold an election you increase the risk of such events - and you won’t know, for sure, until about 72 hours before the vote.

    So, it’s not just the daylight: it’s the unpredictable weather and temperature conditions.
    One of those little delights that I came across some years ago was a documentary called, "Yes, but what do you do all winter?" It was about people who lived on the Cockbridge to Tomintoul road, always one of the first to be closed by snow.

    A major part of the answer was to prepare for and attend Burns night at the end of January. This involved some hilariously over the top efforts including 4 wheeled vehicles, tractors, sledges and ever more eccentric vehicles. People who live in rural areas, even in Scotland, have found ways of getting around in bad weather, funnily enough.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.

    The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.

    To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
    Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.

    We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.

    @AlastairMeeks has made the latter point well on several occasions and he is right that it is time that our politicians learned some new tricks. A more consensual Parliament would be an improvement on the current dialogue of the deaf. There is more to rhetoric than shouting abuse. But there is absolutely no sign of this new trick being learned any time soon.
    It’s an inverse tragedy of the (House of) Commons.

    MPs get personally lauded and politically rewarded for being obstinate and partisan to appeal to their base.

    The rewards for being collegiate and collaborative are far more thinly spread, and won’t attach themselves to the individual that makes them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: race in Mexico this weekend. Many think Mercedes will be on the back foot, with Verstappen too far back to capitalise. Could be another good weekend for Ferrari.

    Off-chance of smaller teams, like McLaren, doing well again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Trying for a single issue election is rarely a good idea..

    Absolutely. That high turnout 1974 election was fought on “Who governs Britain?” To which the answer came “Not you mate!”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.

    We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.

    @AlastairMeeks has made the latter point well on several occasions and he is right that it is time that our politicians learned some new tricks. A more consensual Parliament would be an improvement on the current dialogue of the deaf. There is more to rhetoric than shouting abuse. But there is absolutely no sign of this new trick being learned any time soon.
    It’s an inverse tragedy of the (House of) Commons.

    MPs get personally lauded and politically rewarded for being obstinate and partisan to appeal to their base.

    The rewards for being collegiate and collaborative are far more thinly spread, and won’t attach themselves to the individual that makes them.
    We see where that path ends in the US where working across the Aisle has gone from being lauded to treated with deep suspicion. It has not improved their politics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.

    The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.

    To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
    Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
    No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.

    And life expectancy (at birth) doesn’t work the way you think it does. It’s skewed by infant mortality and things like that so you can’t make the direct inference you’re trying to above.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    I agree. I think Dec 12th is a terrible date. A week earlier would have been better. But this is not going to go down well.

    And, yes, there's a huge difference between mid-December and mid-February.

    The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.

    p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.
    I assume the students will have left for their xmas holidays

    I do not know how this effects the GE
    Depends on the university. Aberystwyth is still in session, and so are most of the post-92 unis on a brief and unscientific sample. The Russell Group tend to break up at the end of November although that's not a hard and fast rule - Warwick does, Exeter doesn't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    Local authorities might struggle to find people to man the polling stations and conduct the count as well. Of course the other issue is not necessarily that people won’t be willing to vote, but that December massively increases the chances of extreme weather events aka snow creating serious disruption.
    Exactly. It’s risk mitigation.

    I don’t know what the weather was like in Feb 1974 but, if we had blizzards and heavy winds as can happen during Winter, that could certainly affect turnout. You can easily see it crippling Cumbria and rural Welsh and Scottish seats. If you pick a day in Winter to hold an election you increase the risk of such events - and you won’t know, for sure, until about 72 hours before the vote.

    So, it’s not just the daylight: it’s the unpredictable weather and temperature conditions.
    One of those little delights that I came across some years ago was a documentary called, "Yes, but what do you do all winter?" It was about people who lived on the Cockbridge to Tomintoul road, always one of the first to be closed by snow.

    A major part of the answer was to prepare for and attend Burns night at the end of January. This involved some hilariously over the top efforts including 4 wheeled vehicles, tractors, sledges and ever more eccentric vehicles. People who live in rural areas, even in Scotland, have found ways of getting around in bad weather, funnily enough.
    Is voting in an unwanted election as fun as Burns night?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.

    We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.

    @AlastairMeeks has made the latter point well on several occasions and he is right that it is time that our politicians learned some new tricks. A more consensual Parliament would be an improvement on the current dialogue of the deaf. There is more to rhetoric than shouting abuse. But there is absolutely no sign of this new trick being learned any time soon.
    It’s an inverse tragedy of the (House of) Commons.

    MPs get personally lauded and politically rewarded for being obstinate and partisan to appeal to their base.

    The rewards for being collegiate and collaborative are far more thinly spread, and won’t attach themselves to the individual that makes them.
    I dunno. One of the rewards is the massive amounts of ordure poured over you by your own side, and that's sticking to quite a lot of them right now.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Pulpstar said:

    Gloooooooria Bozza in excelsis

    On the first day of Christmas the Tories sent to me
    A Bozza in Oswestry
    On the second day of Christmas the Tories sent to me

    Two hurtful Goves
    And a Bozza in Oswestry

    This one could run and run. Particularly if punmaster-in-chief @ydoethur spots it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.

    Local authorities might struggle to find people to man the polling stations and conduct the count as well. Of course the other issue is not necessarily that people won’t be willing to vote, but that December massively increases the chances of extreme weather events aka snow creating serious disruption.
    Exactly. It’s risk mitigation.

    I don’t know what the weather was like in Feb 1974 but, if we had blizzards and heavy winds as can happen during Winter, that could certainly affect turnout. You can easily see it crippling Cumbria and rural Welsh and Scottish seats. If you pick a day in Winter to hold an election you increase the risk of such events - and you won’t know, for sure, until about 72 hours before the vote.

    So, it’s not just the daylight: it’s the unpredictable weather and temperature conditions.
    One of those little delights that I came across some years ago was a documentary called, "Yes, but what do you do all winter?" It was about people who lived on the Cockbridge to Tomintoul road, always one of the first to be closed by snow.

    A major part of the answer was to prepare for and attend Burns night at the end of January. This involved some hilariously over the top efforts including 4 wheeled vehicles, tractors, sledges and ever more eccentric vehicles. People who live in rural areas, even in Scotland, have found ways of getting around in bad weather, funnily enough.
    Is voting in an unwanted election as fun as Burns night?
    Very little beats a good Burns night to be honest. Holy Willies Prayer is my favourite. Done well, its hysterical.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    alex. said:

    Incidentally as a matter of interest - has anyone in the EU Parliament tested the water to see if they can introduce “legislation” compelling EU leaders to agree to an extension (to avert no deal) if asked? Or is it just accepted that this is well beyond their competence?

    Nobody in the European parliament has ever introduced legislation of any description
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    SunnyJim said:


    You are being myopic I fear.

    I've heard tons and tons of people say they are totally bored and fed up with Brexit.

    Brexit bores the vast majority of people, just as the EU did. This is the fatal error that Brexiteers repeatedly fall into. And one of the major reasons why Labour will outperform current polling.

    If you are correct then I would suggest that apathy will not be a positive for Labour.

    If you are motivated to Leave then the Tories are your only choice.

    If you want to Remain then it's the LD's.

    Brexit has sucked the oxygen out of politics such that there is little else that would motivate the apathetic other than the prospect of a resolution.

    Which leaves Labour's offering of another couple of years of wrangling rather unappealing.
    That is a good point. Vote Labour to drag this out for years and also get another referendum. Not appealing to a lot of people I guess.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    Just in case it becomes relevant - does anyone know what time we leave the EU without a deal on October 31st? And is UK/EU legislation totally consistent on the point? U.K. time, Central European time, winter clocks, summer clocks? Is it possible that for an hour we’ll experience Schrodinger’s Brexit, and the lawyers will be kept going for year’s deciding if we left or not?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Expecting consensual politics in the era of social media sends like a contradiction.
  • alex. said:

    I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.

    We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.

    It wasn't a principle at all, as the Lascelles letter makes clear. The situation was and is that if a government can't govern either an election should take place or a new government should take over. But I agree that it is not acceptable to do neither, which is what is happening now. It wouldn't have been acceptable under the Lascelles letter for the monarch to do neither and it isn't acceptable under the FTPA for the House of Commons to do neither.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.

    A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.

    It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.

    If people want to vote, they will.

    Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:

    February 1950 - 83.9%
    October 1951 - 82.6%
    February 1974 - 78.8%
    October 1959 - 78.7%
    October 1964 - 77.1%

    The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)

    Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.

    Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.

    The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.

    To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
    Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
    No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.
    Since you made the claim, could you supply the data please?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited October 2019
    Why is everyone going on about students? Looking at the pictures from the daily mail et al of students on booze extravaganzas puking up all over the place and each other doesn't make me think there is natural loyalty to any particular party.
This discussion has been closed.