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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day Johnson wants for the general election the UK sunset is the earliest for the year
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Either that or he flatly refuses to agree to an election until Brexit is resolved.
I have no idea how it will play out if Boris refuses to put the WAB back in to play for fear of wrecking amendments.
I would have thought that the opposition would be very aware that any major amendments would result in an immediate pulling of the bill so perhaps the governments concerns are overplayed. And indeed if they do end up pulling the bill the optics will be positive for them (game playing remainers thwarting Brexit etc) so there is little risk.
If there isn't a WAB on the table and there isn't a GE then ultimately we are back to a no deal exit.
Best prices - Next UK GE
Con Maj Evs
NOM 11/10
Lab Maj 20/1
Any other party Maj 50\1
If they gave the whip back to the independents they could pretty much deduct them from the Con total when it came to anything Brexit/FTA related.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9%
October 1951 - 82.6%
February 1974 - 78.8%
October 1959 - 78.7%
October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
I think even the EU might say enough is enough if asked for another extension beyond that.
At some point parliament is going to have to make a decision:
1. WAB (no major amendments)
2. GE
3. No deal
4. Revoke
MPs are very rapidly running out of road and in truth Johnson could go on holiday and tell Corbyn to ring him when he's made a choice.
Leaving snakes with no stones to hide under is going to lead to a swift and brutal demise.
An alternative hypothesis is that people haven’t got much else better to do on dark winter evenings than vote, so do, unlike summer evenings. The facts remain - highest turnouts October and February, lowest ever in June.
And I have a strong sense this won't go as well for the Conservatives as some of their supporters on here seem to be telling us.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1187500490562703366?s=20
If that causes a no deal exit then it will be very much an opposition issue.
I find it very doubtful we will get to that point though, far more likely is the extension goes to 31/01 and Corbyn is given whatever additional assurances are required to enable a GE in December.
And, yes, there's a huge difference between mid-December and mid-February.
The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.
Who in thier right mind thinks we as a population are so pathetic that we can't get out in cold windy conditions.
A very calm and peaceful era.
No one doubts that people can get out in dark and cold conditions but you have to appreciate that a lot of people are not as politically motivated as posters to politicalbetting.com. Most people, contrary to the prevailing mood here, are completely bored by Brexit. 'Getting out' to vote is fraught at the best of times and I notice that all the examples below for voter turnout are from over half a century ago or more.
It will impact on turnout. It's also going to be a very long campaign.
The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
A Bozza in Oswestry
Google was my friend.
And whilst you're right about it not turning out too well for Baldwin in that instance it was only a temporary setback. The Liberals on the other hand never recovered.
Indeed it didn't.
The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
I would forecast a low turnout which I think probably benefits Remainers.
If people are motivated they vote. You can argue about if voting should be compulsory, but right now in our system it is the persons choice.
Percentages voting in most of the elections since 2000 have been lower than average, and these were held in late spring or summer.
What’s that about politics and being able to count.
He’s opposed to the deal, opposed to no deal, opposed to a GE, opposed to a referendum on the “Tory” deal, opposed to a “GNU” not led by himself...
But I said 'on here'. Pb.com is a standout site for by-and-large bypassing a lot of the partisan trolling and flaming that goes on everywhere else. And, sounding a little like Mary Whitehouse, we've already had a full-bore "f***ing" on here this morning.
I have a political persuasion, most of us do, but it would be great to keep this as objective as we can, especially as it's a betting site and I plan to continue splashing some cash in the markets
It is still in term time, with very few exams to get in the way. The Students Unions and political societies will be helping to get the vote out with messages like "Now YOU can have your say on Brexit, don't waste it!".
Between 1922 and 1997, turnout at UK general elections remained above 71%, rising to over 80% in the general elections of 1950 and 1951. Turnout was only 57.2% in the 1918 General Election, although this was partly due to a low service vote and a large number of uncontested seats (107 out of a total of 707 seats). In 2001, turnout fell to 59.4%, its lowest level since 1918 and down 12% points compared with 1997. Although turnout rose again in 20052010, it was still below its 1997 level. In 2017 UK turnout was 66.8%
In the longer term, he'd like a deal that keeps workers rights, maintains trading arrangements and he (probably) would prefer to put that back to the people to decide.
It's not a sexy 'Get Brexit Done' slogan but considering how tricky Brexit is, and how split the country is, it's probably the closest thing to sanity out there.
This GE will be polarizing with very distinct choices:
Leave with a deal.
R2.
Revoke.
Rarely (if ever) have I heard someone say they don't really care whether we leave the EU or not; the vast majority of voters will be invested and/or angry when it comes to the next GE.
I see a strong turnout.
I've heard tons and tons of people say they are totally bored and fed up with Brexit.
Brexit bores the vast majority of people, just as the EU did. This is the fatal error that Brexiteers repeatedly fall into. And one of the major reasons why Labour will outperform current polling.
Brexit will largely be left to an argument between the BXP and the Tories.
If you are motivated to Leave then the Tories are your only choice.
If you want to Remain then it's the LD's.
Brexit has sucked the oxygen out of politics such that there is little else that would motivate the apathetic other than the prospect of a resolution.
Which leaves Labour's offering of another couple of years of wrangling rather unappealing.
Wow!
Joyce: Certainly not, it did a lot of other things.
We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
I don’t know what the weather was like in Feb 1974 but, if we had blizzards and heavy winds as can happen during Winter, that could certainly affect turnout. You can easily see it crippling Cumbria and rural Welsh and Scottish seats. If you pick a day in Winter to hold an election you increase the risk of such events - and you won’t know, for sure, until about 72 hours before the vote.
So, it’s not just the daylight: it’s the unpredictable weather and temperature conditions.
I often ask for her take on politics as she’s good at the ‘slap bang in the centre’ mood of those not usually very political.
I do not know how this effects the GE
Nevertheless, Johnson effectively doesn’t have much choice anymore but to gamble on it.
And a gamble it very much is. Those polls aren’t sticky, and most people won’t really turn their conscious attention to it until the final two weeks.
A major part of the answer was to prepare for and attend Burns night at the end of January. This involved some hilariously over the top efforts including 4 wheeled vehicles, tractors, sledges and ever more eccentric vehicles. People who live in rural areas, even in Scotland, have found ways of getting around in bad weather, funnily enough.
MPs get personally lauded and politically rewarded for being obstinate and partisan to appeal to their base.
The rewards for being collegiate and collaborative are far more thinly spread, and won’t attach themselves to the individual that makes them.
F1: race in Mexico this weekend. Many think Mercedes will be on the back foot, with Verstappen too far back to capitalise. Could be another good weekend for Ferrari.
Off-chance of smaller teams, like McLaren, doing well again.
And life expectancy (at birth) doesn’t work the way you think it does. It’s skewed by infant mortality and things like that so you can’t make the direct inference you’re trying to above.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1187614697249312769?s=20
Two hurtful Goves
And a Bozza in Oswestry
This one could run and run. Particularly if punmaster-in-chief @ydoethur spots it.