I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.
I agree. I think Dec 12th is a terrible date. A week earlier would have been better. But this is not going to go down well.
And, yes, there's a huge difference between mid-December and mid-February.
The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
p.s. Labour and LibDems will need to work very hard for the University student votes.
I assume the students will have left for their xmas holidays
Just in case it becomes relevant - does anyone know what time we leave the EU without a deal on October 31st? And is UK/EU legislation totally consistent on the point? U.K. time, Central European time, winter clocks, summer clocks? Is it possible that for an hour we’ll experience Schrodinger’s Brexit, and the lawyers will be kept going for year’s deciding if we left or not?
I think there is a difference between an election in February or October and one in mid-December, less than 2 weeks till Christmas. My work Xmas party is the next day, for instance (could make for a very awkward evening). Nobody will thank the Tories for this, I think Labour should go for it.
The last time a PM went to the country in December it backfired for him horribly. I predict a repeat.
When was that?
6th December 1923
The PM Stanley Baldwin started the campaign with 344 seats and ended it by losing 86 of them.
So, 4 years short of a century ago. Yep - that’s a telling precedent.....
If you were HYUFD, you'd be claiming it was an iron rule.
IIRC, and I was heavily involved with the 74 election, the weather was the sort of damp and miserable weather one expects at the end of February, certainly in Essex. I don't recall pouring rain on the day or matters being disrupted by fog or snow. The run-up, again IIRC, was 'typical February'. Didn't keep a diary in those days, but the 'weather-eu' site says that: 'The first week was mainly changeable, windy and mild. On the night of the 5th/6th over 14mm of rain fell as a deepening depression moved east across central Britain. The second week was very changeable and mild with highs between 10 and 13°C. After mid month, pressure was generally higher. Cloudy, misty weather, alternated with sunny days, with near normal temperatures. On the 27th, winds briefly turned easterly and the high on that day was only 4°C.'
I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.
We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.
It wasn't a principle at all, as the Lascelles letter makes clear. The situation was and is that if a government can't govern either an election should take place or a new government should take over. But I agree that it is not acceptable to do neither, which is what is happening now. It wouldn't have been acceptable under the Lascelles letter for the monarch to do neither and it isn't acceptable under the FTPA for the House of Commons to do neither.
Apologies I should have written, “...deadlocked, and no alternative executive can be formed...”
Why is everyone going on about students? Looking at the pictures from the daily mail et al of students on booze extravaganzas puking up all over the place and each other doesn't make me think there is natural loyalty to any particular party.
I was a student in the mid Nineties and what we got up to then would not fly in today’s job market. The pressure on students to succeed today is immense. That’s why I think the current generation is more serious and engaged than us feckless, cynical and apathetic Gen Xers.
Just in case it becomes relevant - does anyone know what time we leave the EU without a deal on October 31st? And is UK/EU legislation totally consistent on the point? U.K. time, Central European time, winter clocks, summer clocks? Is it possible that for an hour we’ll experience Schrodinger’s Brexit, and the lawyers will be kept going for year’s deciding if we left or not?
I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.
We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.
It wasn't a principle at all, as the Lascelles letter makes clear. The situation was and is that if a government can't govern either an election should take place or a new government should take over. But I agree that it is not acceptable to do neither, which is what is happening now. It wouldn't have been acceptable under the Lascelles letter for the monarch to do neither and it isn't acceptable under the FTPA for the House of Commons to do neither.
Apologies I should have written, “...deadlocked, and no alternative executive can be formed...”
Agreed, though it's worth adding that a PM refusing to resign when an alternative government does exist shouldn't count as a situation in which a new government can't be formed.
If the election motion is voted down on Monday and the EU come back with a short technical extension of say 3 weeks (for arguments sake) where does that leave parliament.
The government could put the WAB back on the understanding that any attempts at major amendments would see it withdrawn.
Would the opposition be satisfied with tinkering around the edges of the deal so they can claim some credit for improving it whilst not risking being blamed for a no deal exit if it is pulled.
And on a procedural point is there any stage at which the government wouldn't be able to stop an amendment by pulling? By that I mean could they wait until after each vote and still be within their rights to withdraw?
I am somewhat perplexed by the obvious fear from remain and people vote supporting mps kneejerk reaction to a December GE. There is no way they will get a referendum in this HOC, not least because there are not the numbers for it, the government is implacably opposed, so it's passage through the HOC would end in stalemate, and of course there is the little matter of the EU looking at extending to mid summer 2020 or beyond to enable the process including 22 weeks of campaigning
I support Boris now he has a deal that takes no deal off the table but as I said last night I am not in awe of him and really do not like his childish and petulant behaviour, as well as his economy with the truth. I am not at all certain he will gain a majority but that is not the point. This HOC is over, paralysed, and frankly bankrupt and needs to be swept away as soon as possible and a new HOC put in place
Now coming back to my first paragraph there is more than an even chance that while Boris may lead the largest party the consensus in the house may actually be for remain. In these circumstances I would expect the price for Boris to continue would be for a referendum to take place. Now he may or may not agree but Boris is not important here, it is a parliamentary democracy and it is the peoples vote best chance to get a referendum that would be wholly legitimate
And on record, I hope Boris achieves a majority but equally if he does not and remain prevails resulting in a referendum I would be content.
The arguments need to be civil and fiercely argued, but all sides need to dial down the rhetoric as we all have a duty to do everything we can to stop this spiraling out of control and the serious consequences that could flow from that. The survey yesteday that indicated both sides are happy to engage in civil unrest is utterly dreadful and I am sure everyone can agree to condemn any thought of such actions
I fear Labour are going to make no deal more likely by avoiding an election out of fear.
On the premise that the EU extends to 31 January, then an election helps avoid no deal given that we are likely to swing one way or the other: either to the Conservatives having a majority for their deal or to the opposition having a majority for a second referendum. 'No deal' would not be any mainstream party manifesto.
Yet dragging on this Parliament without an election will means the opposition will be forced in January to try to have a Benn Act 2 if the deal is not passed. Given we will have a new speaker, it shouldn't be taken for granted that it will be possible - or that the EU will continue to extend for 3 months when the last one was wasted. (At least the most recent extension has led to a new PM and a new deal).
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.
Since you made the claim, could you supply the data please?
No. Mine very logically stands to reason. Almost 9 million men served in the UK and the average age was 24. So in 1974 most would have been in their mid-late 70s, or early 80s at worst, and alive. The last veterans didn’t die until well into the 21st Century.
If you want to dispute this then be my guest - and find the evidence. I have better things to do with my time.
I know it’s repetitive but the FTPA really is an utter sh*t show. It is one of the basic principles of U.K. Parliamentary democracy that when Parliament and the Executive are deadlocked that it should be thrown back to the people to decide. This was, I would argue, one great strength of the U.K. system over others with fixed term Parliaments. But having been handicapped in that way at least politicians in those models generally accept that they have a responsibility to try and work together to break such deadlocks.
We a now blessed with a Fixed Term model, but politicians who don’t accept their consequential responsibilities.
It wasn't a principle at all, as the Lascelles letter makes clear. The situation was and is that if a government can't govern either an election should take place or a new government should take over. But I agree that it is not acceptable to do neither, which is what is happening now. It wouldn't have been acceptable under the Lascelles letter for the monarch to do neither and it isn't acceptable under the FTPA for the House of Commons to do neither.
Apologies I should have written, “...deadlocked, and no alternative executive can be formed...”
Agreed, though it's worth adding that a PM refusing to resign when an alternative government does exist shouldn't count as a situation in which a new government can't be formed.
A Prime Minister traditionally can’t resign without a recommendation of either an election or an alternative PM who can command the confidence of the Commons. So doesn’t apply here.
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.
Since you made the claim, could you supply the data please?
1.6% of 56.1 million in the relevant age bracket. Nearly 900k.
What proportion would have served? Probably quite high, and even if relatively low you're still looking at a couple of hundred thousand WWI veterans. Which would mean the high hundreds per constituency.
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.
Since you made the claim, could you supply the data please?
No. Mine very logically stands to reason. Almost 9 million men served in the UK and the average age was 24. So in 1974 most would have been in their mid-late 70s, or early 80s at worst, and alive. The last veterans didn’t die until well into the 21st Century.
If you want to dispute this then be my guest - and find the evidence. I have better things to do with my time.
You’re the one who made the claim as “fact” but can’t or won’t look it up......
That high turnout 1974 election was fought on “Who governs Britain?” To which the answer came “Not you mate!”
To be precise: Heath TRIED to fight the Feb 1974 election on the issue of "who governs Britain: the unions or the government?". Labour countered with "who do you want to run Britain?"
The result: Heath still got a slightly larger share of the popular vote than robustly centrist Wilson, but a slightly smaller share of seats. Labour took the government, but reran the election 8 months later, narrowly won (on a smaller turnout) and Wilson lost interest in almost everything but booze practically the day he moved back into Downing St. By most standards, Oct 74 to Callaghan's taking over was probably the worst government we've had (including May's) between 1900 and the arrival of the current gang of dunces.
No-one got the result they wanted in Feb 1974. I think Wilson in Feb 1974 was as surprised at his victory as the Tories - and possibly as unhappy.
The arguments need to be civil and fiercely argued, but all sides need to dial down the rhetoric as we all have a duty to do everything we can to stop this spiraling out of control and the serious consequences that could flow from that. The survey yesteday that indicated both sides are happy to engage in civil unrest is utterly dreadful and I am sure everyone can agree to condemn any thought of such actions
Agree with the thrust of your post.
Unfortunately though when the safety valve of democratic process becomes blocked people get angry and frustrated.
At the moment we have an opposition who wont back a VoNC, won't have an election, don't want no deal, don't want the deal, don't want to revoke etc etc etc.
It is Labour who are to blame for the frustration of the public and they will pay the price when they are finally dragged kicking and screaming to the ballot box.
I fear Labour are going to make no deal more likely by avoiding an election out of fear.
On the premise that the EU extends to 31 January, then an election helps avoid no deal given that we are likely to swing one way or the other: either to the Conservatives having a majority for their deal or to the opposition having a majority for a second referendum. 'No deal' would not be any mainstream party manifesto.
Yet dragging on this Parliament without an election will means the opposition will be forced in January to try to have a Benn Act 2 if the deal is not passed. Given we will have a new speaker, it shouldn't be taken for granted that it will be possible - or that the EU will continue to extend for 3 months when the last one was wasted. (At least the most recent extension has led to a new PM and a new deal).
It will be the most disastrous failure in politics if we have a No Deal Brexit. And the funniest if Corbyn gets the blame for it.
If it is true the EU 27 don't want to take a decision which might be seen to influence UK politics one way or the other and the decision to grant an extension to Art50 is delayed into next week, that presumably means Corbyn doesn't agree to GE 12th December. Boris refuses to bring back the Withdrawal Act. By Tuesday/Wednesday do we then see the HoC and the HoL forced to accede and pass the Withdrawal Act basically unamended by Thursday because if not we leave the EU next Friday without a deal and no-one wants that.
Boris gets his Act through, the EU avoids taking a decision and Corbyn can then agree to a GE.
Trying for a single issue election is rarely a good idea. The 'caller' may want a 'decision' on one particular issue, but complicating factors always arise. My wife and I watched QT last night (I know, I know) and it was pretty clear that the South Shields audience wanted both Brexit and a non-Tory Government. I realise that QT studio audiences are 'fixed' by the BBC but it seemed to us that while there appeared to be a belief that the EU was somehow responsible for their woes, there was an equal belief that de-industrialisation was due to Conservative policies. Ken Loach's views, for example, seemed very popular.
Quite so. Once they have their prize of Brexit, why continue to vote Tory? Particularly if Nissan does run the plant down that talk of another round of deindustrialisation will take hold.
Well then that's a No Deal exit on the 31st, isn't it Jeremy....?
To be fair it’s possible that the real problem is the mooted “extension until jan 31st OR nov 15th if deal is voted through”. (avoiding no deal is a cover story). Because the Johnson could offer an extended Parliamentary timetable for the legislation knowing that election would be fought either on the back of Brexit having happened (and been voted through with Opposition assistance) or Brexit having officially been blocked.
Although risk if he is seen to pull amended legislation - depends if public accept that amendments are wreckingamendments. Attitude of House of Lords to legislation with election looming could also be interesting - they may justifiably argue that Salisbury convention doesn’t apply - more so that people are about to have the opportunity to grant a renewed mandate.
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.
Since you made the claim, could you supply the data please?
No. Mine very logically stands to reason. Almost 9 million men served in the UK and the average age was 24. So in 1974 most would have been in their mid-late 70s, or early 80s at worst, and alive. The last veterans didn’t die until well into the 21st Century.
If you want to dispute this then be my guest - and find the evidence. I have better things to do with my time.
You’re the one who made the claim as “fact” but can’t or won’t look it up......
You’re the one who’s disputing a totally obvious fact but who can’t or won’t provide any evidence to dispute it. You’ve also proven by your posts this morning that you totally misunderstand life expectancy.
If it is true the EU 27 don't want to take a decision which might be seen to influence UK politics one way or the other and the decision to grant an extension to Art50 is delayed into next week, that presumably means Corbyn doesn't agree to GE 12th December. Boris refuses to bring back the Withdrawal Act. By Tuesday/Wednesday do we then see the HoC and the HoL forced to accede and pass the Withdrawal Act basically unamended by Thursday because if not we leave the EU next Friday without a deal and no-one wants that.
Boris gets his Act through, the EU avoids taking a decision and Corbyn can then agree to a GE.
The Tories see previous Labour voters in the north and midlands as their route to victory. They are probably right. However, these voters are traditionally much less likely to turn out than voters in the suburbs of the south at the best of times. On a cold, dark day in December, they are really going to have to be fired up. It is going to be a very nasty campaign, isn't it?
The leaders debate, that will be fun. Will no10 send Rudd again?
I would expect Boris would relish it
Why, he's been pretty rubbish in every public setting so far, and done his best throughout his campaign to become PM and since being PM to be avoid scrutiny.
The Tories see previous Labour voters in the north and midlands as their route to victory. They are probably right. However, these voters are traditionally much less likely to turn out than voters in the suburbs of the south at the best of times. On a cold, dark day in December, they are really going to have to be fired up. It is going to be a very nasty campaign, isn't it?
An astronomical point of order: The latest sunrise is actually 5th Jan (St Swithin’s Day.). The solstice has neither the earliest sunset nor the latest sunrise, but has the shortest overall day.
The leaders debate, that will be fun. Will no10 send Rudd again?
I would expect Boris would relish it
Why, he's been pretty rubbish in every public setting so far, and done his best throughout his campaign to become PM and since being PM to be avoid scrutiny.
That high turnout 1974 election was fought on “Who governs Britain?” To which the answer came “Not you mate!”
To be precise: Heath TRIED to fight the Feb 1974 election on the issue of "who governs Britain: the unions or the government?". Labour countered with "who do you want to run Britain?"
The result: Heath still got a slightly larger share of the popular vote than robustly centrist Wilson, but a slightly smaller share of seats. Labour took the government, but reran the election 8 months later, narrowly won (on a smaller turnout) and Wilson lost interest in almost everything but booze practically the day he moved back into Downing St. By most standards, Oct 74 to Callaghan's taking over was probably the worst government we've had (including May's) between 1900 and the arrival of the current gang of dunces.
No-one got the result they wanted in Feb 1974. I think Wilson in Feb 1974 was as surprised at his victory as the Tories - and possibly as unhappy.
Above speculation that if Parliament reject such election then EU will come back offering a short “technical” extension. Is it not more likely in those circumstances that they come back with a lengthy one? Say 9-12 months?
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
Based purely on logic . . .
A lot will have passed on but a large number would have still been around. Indeed if the median average age was 72 then roughly on average half will have still been around and half would have passed on. Half of an entire generation is still a large amount of people.
However I suspect that the average may be a mean average - in which case the median will be above the mean because there is a longer 'tail' on the the downside than the upside.
The leaders debate, that will be fun. Will no10 send Rudd again?
I would expect Boris would relish it
Why, he's been pretty rubbish in every public setting so far, and done his best throughout his campaign to become PM and since being PM to be avoid scrutiny.
Not to mention he was also frit of scrutiny in the tory leadership race.
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
No, there were a lot of WWI veterans in 1974. This is fact. You can look it up.
Since you made the claim, could you supply the data please?
No. Mine very logically stands to reason. Almost 9 million men served in the UK and the average age was 24. So in 1974 most would have been in their mid-late 70s, or early 80s at worst, and alive. The last veterans didn’t die until well into the 21st Century.
If you want to dispute this then be my guest - and find the evidence. I have better things to do with my time.
You’re the one who made the claim as “fact” but can’t or won’t look it up......
You’re the one who’s disputing a totally obvious fact but who can’t or won’t provide any evidence to dispute it. You’ve also proven by your posts this morning that you totally misunderstand life expectancy.
Pathetic.
You don’t think name calling is a sign of losing an argument?
As probably one of the most northerly located PBers, all this fear of a December election is pathetic. In the Highlands in mid December we have daylight from around 09.30 until 15.30. That is amply time for dedicated voters i.e. the elderly to turn out and not for the lukewarm voters i.e. students, soap opera watchers and generally those who find anything more interesting than voting. Plus of course universities have broken up so students, if they vote, will have to be registered in their home constituencies or get off their arses and register for postal votes. A potentially healthy Tory majority beckons.
Above speculation that if Parliament reject such election then EU will come back offering a short “technical” extension. Is it not more likely in those circumstances that they come back with a lengthy one? Say 9-12 months?
What is your thinking behind them doing that?
A long extension almost certainly kills the agreement and puts parliament pretty much back to square one.
It would be a dreadful outcome for the EU - and the UK.
If the EU leaders don't agree an extension because they want to see if there's an election then that's going to give Labour an excuse not to agree an election because they want to see if there's an extension. Will somebody other than Boris just make a f***ing decision!
Why is everyone going on about students? Looking at the pictures from the daily mail et al of students on booze extravaganzas puking up all over the place and each other doesn't make me think there is natural loyalty to any particular party.
I was a student in the mid Nineties and what we got up to then would not fly in today’s job market. The pressure on students to succeed today is immense. That’s why I think the current generation is more serious and engaged than us feckless, cynical and apathetic Gen Xers.
£5+ a pint probably has something to do with it as well!
It will be a very nasty campaign if it happens, according to Downing St Sources.
Oh I agree. And don't underestimate the superb nastiness of both Momentum and the Brexit Party.
But I said 'on here'. Pb.com is a standout site for by-and-large bypassing a lot of the partisan trolling and flaming that goes on everywhere else. And, sounding a little like Mary Whitehouse, we've already had a full-bore "f***ing" on here this morning.
I have a political persuasion, most of us do, but it would be great to keep this as objective as we can, especially as it's a betting site and I plan to continue splashing some cash in the markets
Agreed. And how about this for a really alarming poll? Most people think violence is worthwhile to get the Brexit result they want. Economic decline is worthwhile. The breakup of the country is worthwhile. The end of both agriculture and fishing is worthwhile.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is fanaticism. And it's gripped MOST voters on both sides.
As probably one of the most northerly located PBers, all this fear of a December election is pathetic. In the Highlands in mid December we have daylight from around 09.30 until 15.30. That is amply time for dedicated voters i.e. the elderly to turn out and not for the lukewarm voters i.e. students, soap opera watchers and generally those who find anything more interesting than voting. Plus of course universities have broken up so students, if they vote, will have to be registered in their home constituencies or get off their arses and register for postal votes. A potentially healthy Tory majority beckons.
Universities having broken up is a good point not previously mentioned. Con Gain Canterbury....
Labour should come back with a date in November as their counter. Hell, with a one-clause Bill we could have a ten day campaign - if the parties so wished.
Above speculation that if Parliament reject such election then EU will come back offering a short “technical” extension. Is it not more likely in those circumstances that they come back with a lengthy one? Say 9-12 months?
What is your thinking behind them doing that?
A long extension almost certainly kills the agreement and puts parliament pretty much back to square one.
It would be a dreadful outcome for the EU - and the UK.
Because the EU don’t want no deal. And passage of the bill would be far from certain. A long delay would mean that the EU could effectively ignore the issue for 6 months until the U.K. sort out their internal political problems. A Johnson Govt won’t endure for too long, so something would have to happen.
If the EU leaders don't agree an extension because they want to see if there's an election then that's going to give Labour an excuse not to agree an election because they want to see if there's an extension. Will somebody other than Boris just make a f***ing decision!
If there is not a vote for an election the EU may will agree either an extension to the end of November to get the Withdrawal Agreement through and if it is not got through an extension to January only with a general election or another referendum anyway. I believe that is what Macron is pushing for
Why is everyone going on about students? Looking at the pictures from the daily mail et al of students on booze extravaganzas puking up all over the place and each other doesn't make me think there is natural loyalty to any particular party.
I was a student in the mid Nineties and what we got up to then would not fly in today’s job market. The pressure on students to succeed today is immense. That’s why I think the current generation is more serious and engaged than us feckless, cynical and apathetic Gen Xers.
£5+ a pint probably has something to do with it as well!
Also the fact that many more students are BEM, and often the teetotal. It influences all sorts of events, which tend to be much less boozy than in my day.
It will be a very nasty campaign if it happens, according to Downing St Sources.
Oh I agree. And don't underestimate the superb nastiness of both Momentum and the Brexit Party.
But I said 'on here'. Pb.com is a standout site for by-and-large bypassing a lot of the partisan trolling and flaming that goes on everywhere else. And, sounding a little like Mary Whitehouse, we've already had a full-bore "f***ing" on here this morning.
I have a political persuasion, most of us do, but it would be great to keep this as objective as we can, especially as it's a betting site and I plan to continue splashing some cash in the markets
Agreed. And how about this for a really alarming poll? Most people think violence is worthwhile to get the Brexit result they want. Economic decline is worthwhile. The breakup of the country is worthwhile. The end of both agriculture and fishing is worthwhile.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is fanaticism. And it's gripped MOST voters on both sides.
It is crazy, particularly when the initial solution does not define the long term relationship. A no deal or very hard Brexit may lead to our relationship with EU bouncing much closer, whereas revoke could lead to eventual no deal or very hard Brexit within a few years. Given the country is split 50/50 and any future problems will get blamed on Brexit/no Brexit it is easy to imagine a 60/40 split developing against whatever is chosen.
Our preferences shouldnt be as strong as the polls indicate.
As probably one of the most northerly located PBers, all this fear of a December election is pathetic. In the Highlands in mid December we have daylight from around 09.30 until 15.30. That is amply time for dedicated voters i.e. the elderly to turn out and not for the lukewarm voters i.e. students, soap opera watchers and generally those who find anything more interesting than voting. Plus of course universities have broken up so students, if they vote, will have to be registered in their home constituencies or get off their arses and register for postal votes. A potentially healthy Tory majority beckons.
Universities having broken up is a good point not previously mentioned. Con Gain Canterbury....
Labour should come back with a date in November as their counter. Hell, with a one-clause Bill we could have a ten day campaign - if the parties so wished.
I don't think most universities have broken up on the 12th. Most break up on Friday 13th.
It will be a very nasty campaign if it happens, according to Downing St Sources.
Oh I agree. And don't underestimate the superb nastiness of both Momentum and the Brexit Party.
But I said 'on here'. Pb.com is a standout site for by-and-large bypassing a lot of the partisan trolling and flaming that goes on everywhere else. And, sounding a little like Mary Whitehouse, we've already had a full-bore "f***ing" on here this morning.
I have a political persuasion, most of us do, but it would be great to keep this as objective as we can, especially as it's a betting site and I plan to continue splashing some cash in the markets
Agreed. And how about this for a really alarming poll? Most people think violence is worthwhile to get the Brexit result they want. Economic decline is worthwhile. The breakup of the country is worthwhile. The end of both agriculture and fishing is worthwhile.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is fanaticism. And it's gripped MOST voters on both sides.
We discussed this yesterday, and the results need to be taken in context - for example, a large majority of people don't believe violence will actually happen ... and there are apparently 6% who evince a wish to be poorer, irrespective of the Brexit outcome.
But I agree, the results are nonetheless a little dismaying.
Because the EU don’t want no deal. And passage of the bill would be far from certain. A long delay would mean that the EU could effectively ignore the issue for 6 months until the U.K. sort out their internal political problems. A Johnson Govt won’t endure for too long, so something would have to happen.
A very short extension would ensure the deal is passed.
If the government make clear that substantive wrecking amendments would result in the bill being withdrawn then it would pass.
Labour and the LD's wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal exit when there was a deal on the table.
Why is everyone going on about students? Looking at the pictures from the daily mail et al of students on booze extravaganzas puking up all over the place and each other doesn't make me think there is natural loyalty to any particular party.
I was a student in the mid Nineties and what we got up to then would not fly in today’s job market. The pressure on students to succeed today is immense. That’s why I think the current generation is more serious and engaged than us feckless, cynical and apathetic Gen Xers.
£5+ a pint probably has something to do with it as well!
Also the fact that many more students are BEM, and often the teetotal. It influences all sorts of events, which tend to be much less boozy than in my day.
Instagram as well....going to the gym is probably giving a better look than drinking 8 pints, 10 shots followed by a kebab.....
As probably one of the most northerly located PBers, all this fear of a December election is pathetic. In the Highlands in mid December we have daylight from around 09.30 until 15.30. That is amply time for dedicated voters i.e. the elderly to turn out and not for the lukewarm voters i.e. students, soap opera watchers and generally those who find anything more interesting than voting. Plus of course universities have broken up so students, if they vote, will have to be registered in their home constituencies or get off their arses and register for postal votes. A potentially healthy Tory majority beckons.
Universities having broken up is a good point not previously mentioned. Con Gain Canterbury....
Labour should come back with a date in November as their counter. Hell, with a one-clause Bill we could have a ten day campaign - if the parties so wished.
Tories cheering on voter suppression is another depressing feature of modern political debate. Short term tactical advantage but longterm corrosion of our democracy.
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
Based purely on logic . . .
A lot will have passed on but a large number would have still been around. Indeed if the median average age was 72 then roughly on average half will have still been around and half would have passed on. Half of an entire generation is still a large amount of people.
However I suspect that the average may be a mean average - in which case the median will be above the mean because there is a longer 'tail' on the the downside than the upside.
Casino somehow thinks that WW1 veterans who hadn’t gone out to vote in June 1970 were suddenly motivated to go out in February 1974, despite it being winter and them being 4 years older, increasing turnout by nearly 7%. Its horsefeathers on stilts.
I can understand why he doesn’t want to canvas in December (and hats off to those who do, of whatever party) but as I observed earlier this “winter GEs are bad” is special pleading, not based on data.
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
Based purely on logic . . .
A lot will have passed on but a large number would have still been around. Indeed if the median average age was 72 then roughly on average half will have still been around and half would have passed on. Half of an entire generation is still a large amount of people.
However I suspect that the average may be a mean average - in which case the median will be above the mean because there is a longer 'tail' on the the downside than the upside.
That is all true, but life expectancy figures quoted are normally "at birth", so the figure for 1974 will be for people born that year. The figure for life expectancy at age ~25 in 1920 will be somewhat different.
Tories cheering on voter suppression is another depressing feature of modern political debate. Short term tactical advantage but longterm corrosion of our democracy.
Almost as bad as remainers cheering on a votes for 16 year olds amendment.
So everyone is waiting and it is now perfect deadlock
If the GE fails to get the numbers on monday the EU are due to rule on tuesday and almost certainly are going to confirm the 31st January, not least because that is the date requested under the Benn act, but they may well make it flexible to mid november to let the deal through
In those circumstances I expect Boris to bring the vote back on the tuesday and the mps will have a decision to make. They may want a new year election but campaigning over xmas and the new year holidays is madness and of course a decision has to be arrived at before the new no deal date of 31st January
So we come back to the 12th December but labours prevarication is not going to play well and if they have their political antennae switched on, they need to go all 'gung ho and bring it on, we cannot wait to get rid of this tory government
If it is true the EU 27 don't want to take a decision which might be seen to influence UK politics one way or the other and the decision to grant an extension to Art50 is delayed into next week, that presumably means Corbyn doesn't agree to GE 12th December. Boris refuses to bring back the Withdrawal Act. By Tuesday/Wednesday do we then see the HoC and the HoL forced to accede and pass the Withdrawal Act basically unamended by Thursday because if not we leave the EU next Friday without a deal and no-one wants that.
Boris gets his Act through, the EU avoids taking a decision and Corbyn can then agree to a GE.
The EU wouldn’t risk that . It would look terrible to force the Commons into voting for the deal with hardly any scrutiny. Secondly the European Parliament needs to ratify , they can’t do it at short notice .
The issue is the length of the extension not whether there will be one . Macron is not going to veto causing a no deal . He has to work with 26 countries in the future , he’s not going to put all that at risk for a departing member .
The day with the latest sunrise, the winter solstice, is December 22nd. I hadn’t realised until checking this that the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise do not happen on the same day.
A 15.51 sunset happens between December 8th - 17th in London and varies by less across the month (9 minutes - 16.00-15.51) than sunrise (23 minutes, 07.43-08.06), so there's nothing particularly special about the 12th.
It's also worth noting that the last "winter" GE we had - February 1974 had a turnout of 78.8% - up 6.8% on the June 1970 election that saw Heath win - the highest turnout since 1951 and higher than any general election since then. Before that, the highest turnout (83.9%) had been February 1950.
If people want to vote, they will.
Top 5 UK General elections ranked by turnout since 1950:
February 1950 - 83.9% October 1951 - 82.6% February 1974 - 78.8% October 1959 - 78.7% October 1964 - 77.1%
The lowest turnout GE was in June 2001 (59.4%)
Politicians fear of "people not voting in winter General Elections" is not supported by the facts.
Whilst that’s true, 1974 was a very long time ago.
The UK and people attitude to duty, deference and obligation have changed an awful lot in the last 45 years.
To put it into some perspective: you’d have had a large number of pensioners who were WW1 veterans voting in 1974.
Probably not - average UK life expectancy in 1974 was 72 - so a lot of the 1900 cohort would have passed on. Turnout in General Elections has risen every election since the 2001 nadir. I think it’s impossible to predict how turnout will go - but to assert that it will be “low” is based on special pleading, not precedent.
Based purely on logic . . .
A lot will have passed on but a large number would have still been around. Indeed if the median average age was 72 then roughly on average half will have still been around and half would have passed on. Half of an entire generation is still a large amount of people.
However I suspect that the average may be a mean average - in which case the median will be above the mean because there is a longer 'tail' on the the downside than the upside.
A more pertinent point is that the life expectancy at birth was 72 in 1974. Those who fought in the war had already survived (birth, childhood illnesses, etc.) until at least 18, and life expectancy at 18 would have been substantially more than life expectancy at birth. Mind you, there is that fact that the cohort would have been somewhat depleted by the war itself!
If there is not a vote for an election the EU may will agree either an extension to the end of November to get the Withdrawal Agreement through and if it is not got through an extension to January only with a general election or another referendum anyway. I believe that is what Macron is pushing for
The extension would need to be considerably longer than 31 January for a referendum to take place.
So everyone is waiting and it is now perfect deadlock
If the GE fails to get the numbers on monday the EU are due to rule on tuesday and almost certainly are going to confirm the 31st January, not least because that is the date requested under the Benn act, but they may well make it flexible to mid november to let the deal through
In those circumstances I expect Boris to bring the vote back on the tuesday and the mps will have a decision to make. They may want a new year election but campaigning over xmas and the new year holidays is madness and of course a decision has to be arrived at before the new no deal date of 31st January
So we come back to the 12th December but labours prevarication is not going to play well and if they have their political antennae switched on, they need to go all 'gung ho and bring it, we cannot wait to get rid of this tory government
Why does a decision have to be made by 31st January? The lessons from the last year are of ongoing paralysis. Perhaps the decision on Brexit will be made by then, but it is far from certain and not necessary.
It will be a very nasty campaign if it happens, according to Downing St Sources.
Oh I agree. And don't underestimate the superb nastiness of both Momentum and the Brexit Party.
But I said 'on here'. Pb.com is a standout site for by-and-large bypassing a lot of the partisan trolling and flaming that goes on everywhere else. And, sounding a little like Mary Whitehouse, we've already had a full-bore "f***ing" on here this morning.
I have a political persuasion, most of us do, but it would be great to keep this as objective as we can, especially as it's a betting site and I plan to continue splashing some cash in the markets
Agreed. And how about this for a really alarming poll? Most people think violence is worthwhile to get the Brexit result they want. Economic decline is worthwhile. The breakup of the country is worthwhile. The end of both agriculture and fishing is worthwhile.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is fanaticism. And it's gripped MOST voters on both sides.
We discussed this yesterday, and the results need to be taken in context - for example, a large majority of people don't believe violence will actually happen ... and there are apparently 6% who evince a wish to be poorer, irrespective of the Brexit outcome.
But I agree, the results are nonetheless a little dismaying.
I think it unclear who people expect violence from, for example Remainers may well feel that Tommy Robinson having a tizzy is to be expected.
The other thing in the survey of note is how many see the end of the United Kingdom as likely, whether Leave or Remain voting. The UK is toast.
As probably one of the most northerly located PBers, all this fear of a December election is pathetic. In the Highlands in mid December we have daylight from around 09.30 until 15.30. That is amply time for dedicated voters i.e. the elderly to turn out and not for the lukewarm voters i.e. students, soap opera watchers and generally those who find anything more interesting than voting. Plus of course universities have broken up so students, if they vote, will have to be registered in their home constituencies or get off their arses and register for postal votes. A potentially healthy Tory majority beckons.
Universities having broken up is a good point not previously mentioned. Con Gain Canterbury....
Labour should come back with a date in November as their counter. Hell, with a one-clause Bill we could have a ten day campaign - if the parties so wished.
Tories cheering on voter suppression is another depressing feature of modern political debate. Short term tactical advantage but longterm corrosion of our democracy.
Why is it voter suppression? They can vote at home.
If there is not a vote for an election the EU may will agree either an extension to the end of November to get the Withdrawal Agreement through and if it is not got through an extension to January only with a general election or another referendum anyway. I believe that is what Macron is pushing for
The extension would need to be considerably longer than 31 January for a referendum to take place.
It would only be extended further if the legislation for EUref2 had got through this Parliament which is unlikely given DUP and Labour MPs from Leave seats opposition, so that means a general election or No Deal if the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed by the end of November into law
Jav has just road tested “on strike” theory on the Today programme. And it crashed and burned. 😕
It is spectacularly stupid. Rewind a week, and when parliament said it wanted more scrutiny, negotiate the number of days up from 3 to around 6, job done, Brexit passed.
Now they present Labour with the opportunity to show the Tories refusing to progress Brexit and looking childish!
Pollsters assuming that the Scots Tories will lose all their 2017 gains back to the SNP should think carefully. Most of the seats the Tories gained in 2017 were in constituencies where there was almost parity in the Brexit/remain splits and as most of them are either in NE Scotland where the fishing lobby is strong or along the Borders where the farming lobby is strong, they are hardly typical of Wee Nippy Sweeties fan club.
As probably one of the most northerly located PBers, all this fear of a December election is pathetic. In the Highlands in mid December we have daylight from around 09.30 until 15.30. That is amply time for dedicated voters i.e. the elderly to turn out and not for the lukewarm voters i.e. students, soap opera watchers and generally those who find anything more interesting than voting. Plus of course universities have broken up so students, if they vote, will have to be registered in their home constituencies or get off their arses and register for postal votes. A potentially healthy Tory majority beckons.
Universities having broken up is a good point not previously mentioned. Con Gain Canterbury....
Labour should come back with a date in November as their counter. Hell, with a one-clause Bill we could have a ten day campaign - if the parties so wished.
Comments
Two total dorks
And a Bozza in Oswestry.
On the third day of Christmas etc
Three French nons
Two hurtful Goves
And a Bozza in Oswestry.
Three anti-semites
Two total dorks
And a Bozza in Oswestry
The bar is now officially high.
The run-up, again IIRC, was 'typical February'. Didn't keep a diary in those days, but the 'weather-eu' site says that:
'The first week was mainly changeable, windy and mild. On the night of the 5th/6th over 14mm of rain fell as a deepening depression moved east across central Britain. The second week was very changeable and mild with highs between 10 and 13°C. After mid month, pressure was generally higher. Cloudy, misty weather, alternated with sunny days, with near normal temperatures. On the 27th, winds briefly turned easterly and the high on that day was only 4°C.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45807152
I was a student in the mid Nineties and what we got up to then would not fly in today’s job market. The pressure on students to succeed today is immense. That’s why I think the current generation is more serious and engaged than us feckless, cynical and apathetic Gen Xers.
December
Across the UK, December temperatures average a daily high of 7 degrees Celsius (45 degrees Fahrenheit) and a low of 2 °C (35 °F).
In December, the entire UK averages 13 days of rain or snow, totalling 87 millimetres (3.4 inches).
January
Across the UK, January temperatures average a daily high of 7 degrees Celsius (44 degrees Fahrenheit) and a low of 1 °C (34 °F).
In January, the entire UK averages 13 days of rain or snow, totalling 83 millimetres (3.3 inches).
So Boris must think he's in with a good chance.
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1187615398038003718?s=20
Four polling cards
Three French nons
Two hurtful Goves
And a Bozza in Oswestry.
The government could put the WAB back on the understanding that any attempts at major amendments would see it withdrawn.
Would the opposition be satisfied with tinkering around the edges of the deal so they can claim some credit for improving it whilst not risking being blamed for a no deal exit if it is pulled.
And on a procedural point is there any stage at which the government wouldn't be able to stop an amendment by pulling? By that I mean could they wait until after each vote and still be within their rights to withdraw?
I am somewhat perplexed by the obvious fear from remain and people vote supporting mps kneejerk reaction to a December GE. There is no way they will get a referendum in this HOC, not least because there are not the numbers for it, the government is implacably opposed, so it's passage through the HOC would end in stalemate, and of course there is the little matter of the EU looking at extending to mid summer 2020 or beyond to enable the process including 22 weeks of campaigning
I support Boris now he has a deal that takes no deal off the table but as I said last night I am not in awe of him and really do not like his childish and petulant behaviour, as well as his economy with the truth. I am not at all certain he will gain a majority but that is not the point. This HOC is over, paralysed, and frankly bankrupt and needs to be swept away as soon as possible and a new HOC put in place
Now coming back to my first paragraph there is more than an even chance that while Boris may lead the largest party the consensus in the house may actually be for remain. In these circumstances I would expect the price for Boris to continue would be for a referendum to take place. Now he may or may not agree but Boris is not important here, it is a parliamentary democracy and it is the peoples vote best chance to get a referendum that would be wholly legitimate
And on record, I hope Boris achieves a majority but equally if he does not and remain prevails resulting in a referendum I would be content.
The arguments need to be civil and fiercely argued, but all sides need to dial down the rhetoric as we all have a duty to do everything we can to stop this spiraling out of control and the serious consequences that could flow from that. The survey yesteday that indicated both sides are happy to engage in civil unrest is utterly dreadful and I am sure everyone can agree to condemn any thought of such actions
On the premise that the EU extends to 31 January, then an election helps avoid no deal given that we are likely to swing one way or the other: either to the Conservatives having a majority for their deal or to the opposition having a majority for a second referendum. 'No deal' would not be any mainstream party manifesto.
Yet dragging on this Parliament without an election will means the opposition will be forced in January to try to have a Benn Act 2 if the deal is not passed. Given we will have a new speaker, it shouldn't be taken for granted that it will be possible - or that the EU will continue to extend for 3 months when the last one was wasted. (At least the most recent extension has led to a new PM and a new deal).
If you want to dispute this then be my guest - and find the evidence. I have better things to do with my time.
1.6% of 56.1 million in the relevant age bracket. Nearly 900k.
What proportion would have served? Probably quite high, and even if relatively low you're still looking at a couple of hundred thousand WWI veterans. Which would mean the high hundreds per constituency.
The result: Heath still got a slightly larger share of the popular vote than robustly centrist Wilson, but a slightly smaller share of seats. Labour took the government, but reran the election 8 months later, narrowly won (on a smaller turnout) and Wilson lost interest in almost everything but booze practically the day he moved back into Downing St. By most standards, Oct 74 to Callaghan's taking over was probably the worst government we've had (including May's) between 1900 and the arrival of the current gang of dunces.
No-one got the result they wanted in Feb 1974. I think Wilson in Feb 1974 was as surprised at his victory as the Tories - and possibly as unhappy.
Unfortunately though when the safety valve of democratic process becomes blocked people get angry and frustrated.
At the moment we have an opposition who wont back a VoNC, won't have an election, don't want no deal, don't want the deal, don't want to revoke etc etc etc.
It is Labour who are to blame for the frustration of the public and they will pay the price when they are finally dragged kicking and screaming to the ballot box.
If it is true the EU 27 don't want to take a decision which might be seen to influence UK politics one way or the other and the decision to grant an extension to Art50 is delayed into next week, that presumably means Corbyn doesn't agree to GE 12th December. Boris refuses to bring back the Withdrawal Act. By Tuesday/Wednesday do we then see the HoC and the HoL forced to accede and pass the Withdrawal Act basically unamended by Thursday because if not we leave the EU next Friday without a deal and no-one wants that.
Boris gets his Act through, the EU avoids taking a decision and Corbyn can then agree to a GE.
To be fair it’s possible that the real problem is the mooted “extension until jan 31st OR nov 15th if deal is voted through”. (avoiding no deal is a cover story). Because the Johnson could offer an extended Parliamentary timetable for the legislation knowing that election would be fought either on the back of Brexit having happened (and been voted through with Opposition assistance) or Brexit having officially been blocked.
Although risk if he is seen to pull amended legislation - depends if public accept that amendments are wreckingamendments. Attitude of House of Lords to legislation with election looming could also be interesting - they may justifiably argue that Salisbury convention doesn’t apply - more so that people are about to have the opportunity to grant a renewed mandate.
Pathetic.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/wilson-may-have-had-alzheimers-when-he-resigned-1009829.html
A lot will have passed on but a large number would have still been around. Indeed if the median average age was 72 then roughly on average half will have still been around and half would have passed on. Half of an entire generation is still a large amount of people.
However I suspect that the average may be a mean average - in which case the median will be above the mean because there is a longer 'tail' on the the downside than the upside.
A long extension almost certainly kills the agreement and puts parliament pretty much back to square one.
It would be a dreadful outcome for the EU - and the UK.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is fanaticism. And it's gripped MOST voters on both sides.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/majority-of-voters-think-violence-against-mps-is-price-worth-paying-for-brexit
Labour should come back with a date in November as their counter. Hell, with a one-clause Bill we could have a ten day campaign - if the parties so wished.
Our preferences shouldnt be as strong as the polls indicate.
But I agree, the results are nonetheless a little dismaying.
If the government make clear that substantive wrecking amendments would result in the bill being withdrawn then it would pass.
Labour and the LD's wouldn't want to be responsible for a no deal exit when there was a deal on the table.
I can understand why he doesn’t want to canvas in December (and hats off to those who do, of whatever party) but as I observed earlier this “winter GEs are bad” is special pleading, not based on data.
In December 1918 the Tories won a majority of seats and in December 1910 the Tories won the popular vote.
The Tories have thus never lost the popular vote or most seats in a December general election
If the GE fails to get the numbers on monday the EU are due to rule on tuesday and almost certainly are going to confirm the 31st January, not least because that is the date requested under the Benn act, but they may well make it flexible to mid november to let the deal through
In those circumstances I expect Boris to bring the vote back on the tuesday and the mps will have a decision to make. They may want a new year election but campaigning over xmas and the new year holidays is madness and of course a decision has to be arrived at before the new no deal date of 31st January
So we come back to the 12th December but labours prevarication is not going to play well and if they have their political antennae switched on, they need to go all 'gung ho and bring it on, we cannot wait to get rid of this tory government
The issue is the length of the extension not whether there will be one . Macron is not going to veto causing a no deal . He has to work with 26 countries in the future , he’s not going to put all that at risk for a departing member .
Although at least he can count to six, eh Diane?
The other thing in the survey of note is how many see the end of the United Kingdom as likely, whether Leave or Remain voting. The UK is toast.
Now they present Labour with the opportunity to show the Tories refusing to progress Brexit and looking childish!
The government should just keep pressing their case in a way that paints the opposition in an intransigent/scared/dishonest light.
Eventually Corbyn will cave and either vote the deal through pretty much as it is or he will agree to a GE.
He doesn't have any other realistic options.
It’s Oxbridge that knocks off early....