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edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Dominic Cummings should wargame dropping a couple of bags on his favoured election date, or at least the one he wants us to think it is.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    I think Boris was smart to pause it. Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? The longer scrutiny and amendments go on the worse it is for Boris maintaining the credibility and coalition on the bill? it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can change under that. Farage reckons the parliament will add CU to it. I don’t think the votes will be there for that, but there could for other changes that make it a very different deal for ERG or even cabinet to back?
    I genuinely trust the polling and think Boris support is solid and he will get a big win. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence by voting for an election polls point to big Boris win? I think there might be a bit of a bubble around those who really want an election obscuring some good reasons why its not going to happen whilst Brexit outcomes so unknown.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Dominic Cummings should wargame dropping a couple of bags on his favoured election date, or at least the one he wants us to think it is.

    Its hard to second guess Cummings plan. Fact is he thinks different than everyone around him, than mere mortals like the rest of us. For this reason I don’t think, once it’s clear Parliament won’t give election we cannot rule out he thinks a confirmatory ref is a good idea.
    He won the last one against the odds. He knows he’s good at them.
    He now has the government machine at his disposal not against him, he’s clearly got much media too.
    He’s also got a weary electorate desperate to move on to domestic agenda on his side. Surely he would be thinking he Will add to 17.4M not lose much from that?

    We know vast amount of Labour support is remain, vast amount of Labour members remain, vast amount of its MPs remain, I certainly think now whilst Labour causally flirt with another ref, they can’t deliver one without causing huge arguments to splits in their own party, and then manage the technicalities of a workable second ref proposal and timeline. And then the risk of the peoples vote say “oh for goodness sake just get it over with once and for all with a Brexit any Brexit” remain labour will walk away from the party killing it. So yeah, someone like Cummings might be thinking like this.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    One problem Boris might have with the narrative is explaining to the voter on the Clapham omnibus exactly why parliamentary time to examine the Brexit bill should depend on a December election. It looks too much like game-playing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch. :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,987
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Why doesn't Boris resign and VoNC whoever comes after him if he wants and election.

    Why should he. He gets stronger as mps refuse to have a GE

    Resigning is giving up and he will not give up
    Not half an hour ago you appeared flummoxed about what Boris will do if he does not get to have his GE - so if it does indeed make him stronger, what will be do with that strength?
    oxfordsimon said:

    RochdalePioneers said:


    Abstaining has the same effect as voting against.
    Same effect, but allows the spin that they did not vote against a GE, which they claim to want.
    RochdalePioneers said:

    blueblue said:

    Jonathan said:

    Benpointer said:

    Why doesn't Boris resign and VoNC whoever comes after him if he wants and election.

    Because he doesn't want to fight an election against PM Corbyn.
    Because no one with a functioning brain would ever make Corbyn PM for even a picosecond.
    I know. Even compared to the roaring success that is Shagger he would make an appalling PM
    Enjoying your time in the new party I see.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,987
    I look forward to seeing if the theories on BXP voters shooting themselves in the foot come 1 November are true.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    egg said:

    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.

    Leavers know it's the cowardly Parliament that is doing silly antics.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    If Labour are going to abstain on the FTPA, I wonder if Johnson will test them out with a 1-line GE bill. Force them into voting against.

    You never know, it might even pass. There were some seriously strange abstentions on the QS today.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,530
    Andrew said:

    If Labour are going to abstain on the FTPA, I wonder if Johnson will test them out with a 1-line GE bill. Force them into voting against.

    You never know, it might even pass. There were some seriously strange abstentions on the QS today.

    It'll be amended to the point where Jacob Rees-Sexytime pulls it
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Andrew said:

    If Labour are going to abstain on the FTPA, I wonder if Johnson will test them out with a 1-line GE bill. Force them into voting against.

    You never know, it might even pass. There were some seriously strange abstentions on the QS today.

    I think they didn’t want him to say I can’t get my QS passed there has to be election.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited October 2019
    egg said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Dominic Cummings should wargame dropping a couple of bags on his favoured election date, or at least the one he wants us to think it is.

    Its hard to second guess Cummings plan. Fact is he thinks different than everyone around him, than mere mortals like the rest of us. For this reason I don’t think, once it’s clear Parliament won’t give election we cannot rule out he thinks a confirmatory ref is a good idea.
    He won the last one against the odds. He knows he’s good at them.
    He now has the government machine at his disposal not against him, he’s clearly got much media too.
    He’s also got a weary electorate desperate to move on to domestic agenda on his side. Surely he would be thinking he Will add to 17.4M not lose much from that?

    We know vast amount of Labour support is remain, vast amount of Labour members remain, vast amount of its MPs remain, I certainly think now whilst Labour causally flirt with another ref, they can’t deliver one without causing huge arguments to splits in their own party, and then manage the technicalities of a workable second ref proposal and timeline. And then the risk of the peoples vote say “oh for goodness sake just get it over with once and for all with a Brexit any Brexit” remain labour will walk away from the party killing it. So yeah, someone like Cummings might be thinking like this.
    There is no way we have a second referendum with a Remain option, except over the heads of Boris and Cummings.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,582
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Andrew said:

    If Labour are going to abstain on the FTPA, I wonder if Johnson will test them out with a 1-line GE bill. Force them into voting against.

    You never know, it might even pass. There were some seriously strange abstentions on the QS today.

    It'll be amended to the point where Jacob Rees-Sexytime pulls it
    Not sure. The conservatives have largely come together with 300 odd votes so only 20 out of 350 needed to defeat any amendments
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Philip_Thompson said:

    egg said:

    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.

    Leavers know it's the cowardly Parliament that is doing silly antics.
    There’s all different types of people. What marked out 2016 was the number who rarely vote because they think it doesn’t make a difference, and if Boris promises and doesn’t deliver and throws 2nd hand dead cats and skunks he got off Trump to distract from the face he should be following satnav to a suitable ditch, then it’s that specific group of people I think he will start losing.
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Just a small point. People talk about 31st October being Boris Johnson's "self imposed deadline". Isn't it the case that 31st October was the date imposed as an extension date by the EU on Theresa May and not a date either she or Boris asked for?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Gabs2 said:

    egg said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Dominic Cummings should wargame dropping a couple of bags on his favoured election date, or at least the one he wants us to think it is.

    Its hard to second guess Cummings plan. Fact is he thinks different than everyone around him, than mere mortals like the rest of us. For this reason I don’t think, once it’s clear Parliament won’t give election we cannot rule out he thinks a confirmatory ref is a good idea.
    He won the last one against the odds. He knows he’s good at them.
    He now has the government machine at his disposal not against him, he’s clearly got much media too.
    He’s also got a weary electorate desperate to move on to domestic agenda on his side. Surely he would be thinking he Will add to 17.4M not lose much from that?

    We know vast amount of Labour support is remain, vast amount of Labour members remain, vast amount of its MPs remain, I certainly think now whilst Labour causally flirt with another ref, they can’t deliver one without causing huge arguments to splits in their own party, and then manage the technicalities of a workable second ref proposal and timeline. And then the risk of the peoples vote say “oh for goodness sake just get it over with once and for all with a Brexit any Brexit” remain labour will walk away from the party killing it. So yeah, someone like Cummings might be thinking like this.
    There is no way we have a second referendum with a Remain option, except over the heads of Boris and Cummings.
    Before betting the mortgage on what Boris wants, bear in mind it was rumoured at the time Boris wanted to lose the referendum. It might still be the case that he wants to be prime minister more than he wants to leave the EU. Or not.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    egg said:

    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.

    Those that have only ever voted in the referendum may not be the best source of future votes, they already think we have left.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    egg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    egg said:

    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.

    Leavers know it's the cowardly Parliament that is doing silly antics.
    There’s all different types of people. What marked out 2016 was the number who rarely vote because they think it doesn’t make a difference, and if Boris promises and doesn’t deliver and throws 2nd hand dead cats and skunks he got off Trump to distract from the face he should be following satnav to a suitable ditch, then it’s that specific group of people I think he will start losing.
    Or if Parliament demonstrates to those people that their only hope of seeing Brexit is to hold their nose and vote Conservative it gives them something to vote for.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    egg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    egg said:

    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.

    Leavers know it's the cowardly Parliament that is doing silly antics.
    There’s all different types of people. What marked out 2016 was the number who rarely vote because they think it doesn’t make a difference, and if Boris promises and doesn’t deliver and throws 2nd hand dead cats and skunks he got off Trump to distract from the face he should be following satnav to a suitable ditch, then it’s that specific group of people I think he will start losing.
    I haven't seen any analysis one way or the other, but were the incremental voters in the referendum disproportionately in safe seats ?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    NorthCadboll said:

    Just a small point. People talk about 31st October being Boris Johnson's "self imposed deadline". Isn't it the case that 31st October was the date imposed as an extension date by the EU on Theresa May and not a date either she or Boris asked for?

    I think it was Macron's idea, the rest of the EU wanted a date in 2020.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,524
    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    dodrade said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Just a small point. People talk about 31st October being Boris Johnson's "self imposed deadline". Isn't it the case that 31st October was the date imposed as an extension date by the EU on Theresa May and not a date either she or Boris asked for?

    I think it was Macron's idea, the rest of the EU wanted a date in 2020.
    I think Macron still doesn't want a date in 2020.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,840
    I've now laid off almost of my December 2019 position. Not happening.

    The VoNC route won't work either.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    NorthCadboll said:

    Just a small point. People talk about 31st October being Boris Johnson's "self imposed deadline". Isn't it the case that 31st October was the date imposed as an extension date by the EU on Theresa May and not a date either she or Boris asked for?

    It became Alexander’s deadline during his leadership election so we are all beholden to the will of a majority of the conservative party
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    Corbyn says No Deal could be taken off the table tomorrow, and then he'd be in favour of an election on 12th December.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Whatever your politics the Fixed Term Parliament Act really is the most glorious cock up
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    NorthCadboll said:

    Just a small point. People talk about 31st October being Boris Johnson's "self imposed deadline". Isn't it the case that 31st October was the date imposed as an extension date by the EU on Theresa May and not a date either she or Boris asked for?

    Yes it’s a date Boris inherited.

    He could be saying though from the point he had secured a deal in negotiation it’s no longer a die in ditch date. Some of the the decisions last few weeks baffling his own party not just opponents.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    Perhaps we'll still be here in 2022. Parliament may even try and extend itself beyond five years.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    By the way, the Gov't 'going on strike' is likely to lead to a rash of SO24's with the Opposition seizing control. They could begin passing all kind of laws whilst the tories sulk.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,982
    Mysticrose said:

    Whatever your politics the Fixed Term Parliament Act really is the most glorious cock up

    I can't see it surviving the next majority government (of any colour)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Philip_Thompson said:

    egg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    egg said:

    If the government “goes on strike” as they say they will, it’s flippant say lot of people will say great, they can’t do any damage then. More seriously this sort of behaviour could hurt the result the Tories look set to get. The thing to watch is polling and vox popping of those sort of leavers who rarely or never voted prior to 2016, if their trust and credibility in Johnson drops because of all these missed promises and silly antics, it could change the picture.

    Leavers know it's the cowardly Parliament that is doing silly antics.
    There’s all different types of people. What marked out 2016 was the number who rarely vote because they think it doesn’t make a difference, and if Boris promises and doesn’t deliver and throws 2nd hand dead cats and skunks he got off Trump to distract from the face he should be following satnav to a suitable ditch, then it’s that specific group of people I think he will start losing.
    Or if Parliament demonstrates to those people that their only hope of seeing Brexit is to hold their nose and vote Conservative it gives them something to vote for.
    That’s my point, they may say, I’ve had enough I won’t vote again for anyone, and from that place what they are seeing from Boris and Conservatives, game playing, petulance, ramped promises that aren’t delivered really convincing them?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,394
    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,919
    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    Simple majority to set aside the FTPA.

    Everybody else will want to feed on the carcass of the Labour Party.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    May as well say no election until they abolish the Lords and renationalise the railways as well. They have the whip hand, it doesn't seem like there's much anyone else can do about it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,840
    "Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."

    Corrected it for you.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    CD13 said:

    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.

    If they have the numbers to make those amendments, probably also means they have the numbers to take control of the business too, rather than playing along with Boris's game and getting trapped on the path to an election which causes an artificial deadline. Far better to go SO24 and then either timetable 6 weeks for committee stage on the WAB, or even table a slightly different WAB and then make him sit there as powerless PM while they 'get Brexit done'.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,474
    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,982
    edited October 2019
    FPT
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just listened to Corbyn live on Sky saying to wait for the EU tomorrow but if they give an extension taking no deal off the table they will vote for the GE

    Lewis Goodall just said that there is a really heated battle in labour and it is a bloodbath

    Jezza might still come up with the goods for us. :D
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Mysticrose said:

    Whatever your politics the Fixed Term Parliament Act really is the most glorious cock up

    It reduces the overweening power of a Prime Minister who has been elected only by a tiny slice of the electorate and is therefore a wonderful correction in favour of representative democracy and a fairer balance of power.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    CD13 said:

    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.

    If an election has already been agreed won't the government still have the option of pulling the bill if any wrecking amendments pass?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 332
    Where do I find a betting site that is offering odds on individual constituencies at the next GE?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.

    If they have the numbers to make those amendments, probably also means they have the numbers to take control of the business too, rather than playing along with Boris's game and getting trapped on the path to an election which causes an artificial deadline. Far better to go SO24 and then either timetable 6 weeks for committee stage on the WAB, or even table a slightly different WAB and then make him sit there as powerless PM while they 'get Brexit done'.
    If they were really clever they would do that, they need to do it next week for obvious reasons it’s a smart solution but that ensures it won’t happen
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,720
    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    The prize is closure, not Brexit. Hence the power of the slogan get Brexit done.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    dodrade said:

    CD13 said:

    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.

    If an election has already been agreed won't the government still have the option of pulling the bill if any wrecking amendments pass?
    I'm not certain it can - does a programme motion oblige the Government to move the business for that day in line with the programme motion or is it free to depart from it? In normal times it's probably a moot point as a government with a majority could presumably pass an amended programme motion, but you could see it losing control and being left with the choice of either voting down its own WAB or allowing a softer Brexit to be passed. Neither would be a great look going into an election.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    Yes have suggested that but you and I will shortly be called idiots and traitors, but I’m enjoying this new hegemony Johnson is creating
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,720
    Jonathan said:

    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    The prize is closure, not Brexit. Hence the power of the slogan get Brexit done.
    Boris’s letter contained a good slogan for Remain: “End this nightmare!”
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    nichomar said:

    Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.

    If they have the numbers to make those amendments, probably also means they have the numbers to take control of the business too, rather than playing along with Boris's game and getting trapped on the path to an election which causes an artificial deadline. Far better to go SO24 and then either timetable 6 weeks for committee stage on the WAB, or even table a slightly different WAB and then make him sit there as powerless PM while they 'get Brexit done'.
    If they were really clever they would do that, they need to do it next week for obvious reasons it’s a smart solution but that ensures it won’t happen
    I'm fairly sure that if I'm clever enough to think of it there will be a good selection of the 'rebel alliance' who are a few steps ahead. Whether there are 320+ MPs who will vote for it is another matter of course.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,394
    edited October 2019
    Mr Dodrade,

    "If an election has already been agreed won't the government still have the option of pulling the bill if any wrecking amendments pass?"

    They could, but the EU would endorse the resulting BINO putting pressure on Boris if he pulled it. Parliament passed the bill to 'leave', The EU agreed, but Boris is the stumbling block now.

    Yes, it's a con, but I suspect the more fanatical Europhiles would lose any critical faculties they ever had. The less fanatical ones would grimace but go along with it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT


    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just listened to Corbyn live on Sky saying to wait for the EU tomorrow but if they give an extension taking no deal off the table they will vote for the GE

    Lewis Goodall just said that there is a really heated battle in labour and it is a bloodbath

    Jezza might still come up with the goods for us. :D
    No, maybe goods for you, it will never be for anybody other than the Tory party which of course is you’re only objective in life regardless of who leads them and what their policies are
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,524
    Casino_Royale said:

    "Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."

    Corrected it for you.

    Yes.

    The Boris Johnson project is for Boris Johnson to win an election asap.

    The Labour project is to prevent this.

    Brexit is incidental and instrumental to both.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,584
    franklyn said:

    Where do I find a betting site that is offering odds on individual constituencies at the next GE?

    Oddschecker will give you them

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/bermondsey-and-old-southwark

    You can change to other constituencies. I think there are about 20 with odds being offered.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Polruan said:

    nichomar said:

    Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    Surely the way ahead is easy for Labour. Agree to a GE, and then amend the Boris/EU deal until it's BINO. The EU will agree as it's what they want and the Boris deal will have evaporated around him.

    A lot of people will see it as the con it is, but if it's what they want, morals will be forgotten.

    If they have the numbers to make those amendments, probably also means they have the numbers to take control of the business too, rather than playing along with Boris's game and getting trapped on the path to an election which causes an artificial deadline. Far better to go SO24 and then either timetable 6 weeks for committee stage on the WAB, or even table a slightly different WAB and then make him sit there as powerless PM while they 'get Brexit done'.
    If they were really clever they would do that, they need to do it next week for obvious reasons it’s a smart solution but that ensures it won’t happen
    I'm fairly sure that if I'm clever enough to think of it there will be a good selection of the 'rebel alliance' who are a few steps ahead. Whether there are 320+ MPs who will vote for it is another matter of course.
    Interesting times.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,549
    Barnesian said:

    franklyn said:

    Where do I find a betting site that is offering odds on individual constituencies at the next GE?

    Oddschecker will give you them

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/bermondsey-and-old-southwark

    You can change to other constituencies. I think there are about 20 with odds being offered.
    Very often, you can email bookies (at least the ones offering some constituency odds) and they'll offer odds on your constituency of interest. Well worth doing if you have an inside track, as they'll just apply a formula whereas you MAY know better (or alternatively may be an idiot who is emotionally invested in a candidate).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,635
    Over half the electorate is willing to see violence against MPs in order to get what they want:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/majority-of-voters-think-violence-against-mps-is-price-worth-paying-for-brexit

    Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,840
    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    If my Auntie had bollocks she'd be a massive europhile, want to dye her skin dark blue with yellow stars and move in with Jean-Claude Juncker.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Casino_Royale said:

    "Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."

    Corrected it for you.

    I like this post because it’s true. They can’t say it, so they make something up. Take no deal off table. How?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,141
    MarqueeMark said:

    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    Simple majority to set aside the FTPA.

    Everybody else will want to feed on the carcass of the Labour Party.
    Amended for votes at 16
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    Casino_Royale said:

    "Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."

    Corrected it for you.

    You get it. Can you now please educate the slower of learning PB Tories?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,720
    Casino_Royale said:

    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    If my Auntie had bollocks she'd be a massive europhile, want to dye her skin dark blue with yellow stars and move in with Jean-Claude Juncker.
    Perhaps we need a non-binary vote to swing it for the Europhiles.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've now laid off almost of my December 2019 position. Not happening.

    The VoNC route won't work either.

    The other options to cummings seem a bit far fetched too don’t they? Shall we war game it with for and against for each option to weigh up their realism.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,394
    My Royale.

    If my auntie had bollocks, she could self-identify as my uncle. Even if she didn't have bollocks.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Anyone reading page 6 and 7 of todays Tele has to wonder how much longer Cummings will be in there. If they reject his election before deal idea you have to wonder how much longer he will want to be in there.

    That coverage of the current inner thinking, and disagreements, is only possible in the Tele that is why I bought it.

    All media now covering the fact GE probably wont happen because not enough support in Labour for it. Corbyn and most of his coterie seem actually up for it (so far as Corbyn himself can be found supporting any opinion these days) so hard to call them chickens, but it seems there are more than enough chickens to rebel even a whip to mean GE unlikely to happen under FTPA. So they will make demand on a Boris he cannot deliver.

    Actually to be fair, both main parties seem split whether a general election settles Brexit, or Brexit needs to be more settled for a general election? As one put it “My objection to a general election is one of principle in that with a general election the secret is in the name – it is general. It’s not and shouldn’t be about a single binary issue like Brexit.” is it a fair point or not?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Andrew said:

    If Labour are going to abstain on the FTPA, I wonder if Johnson will test them out with a 1-line GE bill. Force them into voting against.

    You never know, it might even pass. There were some seriously strange abstentions on the QS today.

    It would pass because DUP would back it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,800
    Labour should drag the bill through until it’s sufficiently soft enough to protect the economy (SM+CU or some such), let it pass, then Vonc Boris in the late winter or early spring. No sense in running this side of Christmas to Bunter’s timetable.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    The Guardian's man in Brussels says …..

    https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1187459382994452480
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,524
    TOPPING said:

    You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?

    I think Labour can win if the GE comes after a prolonged period of Boris neither doing nor dying. Won't be easy of course but I think it's possible. In Dec I can't see anything but a Con win. Therefore must play it long. April 2020? Things could look very different by then. Might even be able to replace Corbyn with a fresh face - Gardiner or Burgon spring to mind.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,319
    The forthcoming Bassetlaw by-election ('cos that and Buckingham the only ones we're likely to get this year) will be compelling. Tories need a 4.7% swing to gain. Will Lord Mann give them his backing?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Jonathan said:

    Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch. :smiley:

    Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?

    I think Labour can win if the GE comes after a prolonged period of Boris neither doing nor dying. Won't be easy of course but I think it's possible. In Dec I can't see anything but a Con win. Therefore must play it long. April 2020? Things could look very different by then. Might even be able to replace Corbyn with a fresh face - Gardiner or Burgon spring to mind.
    THATS your plan

    ROFL
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1187416522593046529?s=19

    Yes, the SNP will totally be voting for a Tory led General Election Bill.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,889
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?

    I think Labour can win if the GE comes after a prolonged period of Boris neither doing nor dying. Won't be easy of course but I think it's possible. In Dec I can't see anything but a Con win. Therefore must play it long. April 2020? Things could look very different by then. Might even be able to replace Corbyn with a fresh face - Gardiner or Burgon spring to mind.
    Burgon?

    :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,197
    edited October 2019
    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    I doubt it, most likely the Tories or the Brexit Party (albeit the latter only if it was the Tories revoking) would see an SNP 2015 style landslide under FPTP if MPs cancelled Brexit without even another referendum
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,394
    Mr egg.

    "It’s not and shouldn’t be about a single binary issue like Brexit.” is it a fair point or not?"

    It's a fair point, but not reasonable. 'Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?" is a fair question to ask, but ...
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    As ever, you’re all over-complicating it. All that matters is whether Boris gets the message out that Parliament is playing silly buggers despite him getting the impossible deal; or Corbyn gets the message out that he’s tried to be constructive and compromise but Boris can’t be trusted, and we can’t have an election until the “threat” of no deal is passed.

    Personally, my money is on the Boris message winning out for now, and him winning an election in the short to medium term.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Andrew said:

    The Guardian's man in Brussels says …..

    https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1187459382994452480

    So if Parliament doesn't vote for an election, then Macron will say "non" to an extension that lasts till 31sr Jan?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    JohnO said:

    The forthcoming Bassetlaw by-election ('cos that and Buckingham the only ones we're likely to get this year) will be compelling. Tories need a 4.7% swing to gain. Will Lord Mann give them his backing?

    Given Bassetlaw CLP were happy to have Mann be the candidate and Joe Ashton before that, You'd think they might a have a similar minded candidate next time as well unless the NEC get involved.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Andrew said:

    If Labour are going to abstain on the FTPA, I wonder if Johnson will test them out with a 1-line GE bill. Force them into voting against.

    You never know, it might even pass. There were some seriously strange abstentions on the QS today.

    It'll be amended to the point where Jacob Rees-Sexytime pulls it
    Not sure. The conservatives have largely come together with 300 odd votes so only 20 out of 350 needed to defeat any amendments
    How are the 19 Labour Boris backers and various rebel Tories who backed Boris on 2ndreading going to get out of 3rd reading? Looking closely at what they have been saying, the qualifiers that come after the phrase “yes I will vote for it” I detect two main ones.

    1. Financial Impact Statements. Bigging up the negative in economic impacts statements and relating it to bad for their constituents.
    2. NI. Clarke yesterday was saying its awful for NI and unionists, we can back it only after we change the new backstop wasn’t he?

    And a couple more that might play

    3. Kinnock seemed to be heading aboard last week but is definitely against this week with “he couldn’t vote for this one which “would make a bonfire of workers rights, environmental standards and consumer protection”.” If others wanted to back out by bigging up such examples they easily could couldn’t they?
    4. Labour leadership and Labour whipping have been a bit softly softly for the less meaningful second reading maybe planning a tougher line when it comes to more meaningful voting? Labour leadership are being canny with their wording around this, whilst being as softly softly and supportive of their rebels as possible, I suspect a toughening of the line for a meaningful 3rd reading. “I think most of those MPs were making clear their support for a second reading was in order to try and make changes to the proposals to bring them into line with the kind of Brexit deal we have been talking about. The chief whip has made clear these things will be taken into account as a whole once the process is finished.” See what I mean?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    what better place can the Labour Party ever have than in where they are now. They would be stark staring bonkers to vote for a GE they hold the key and can, if the can contain their own MPs to wait for ‘events’ it will never get worse but it may get better. I have to turn TV off because idiots on the pledge are shouting at each other so will see you all tomorrow after the alarm goes off playing ‘I’ve got you babe’
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Labour's position is impregnable. No election until No Deal is off the table. And No Deal is only off the table when a Deal has been passed. Therefore no election until a Deal has been passed. Which will take a long time because of the need for proper scrutiny and also for compromise with Labour's key requirement for closer EU alignment. Get out of that Blondie.

    This true so long as the EU is content to keep offering extensions. I doubt it will be. Suppose the EU comes back and says: three months' extension if you hold an election, otherwise two weeks'.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    nunuone said:

    Jonathan said:

    Oct 31st Do or Die. Come what may. Dead in a ditch. :smiley:

    Keep dreaming. Boris will smash Corbyn in an election whenever it comes.
    As Labour have an effective veto, if it's really that obviously the case then we aren't getting an election til the earlier of 2022 and Labour having a new leader.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,840
    CD13 said:

    My Royale.

    If my auntie had bollocks, she could self-identify as my uncle. Even if she didn't have bollocks.

    Superb.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,720
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    If parliament revoked Article 50 and then we had an election, parties pledging to re-invoke it might do surprisingly badly.

    I doubt it, most likely the Tories or the Brexit Party (albeit the latter only if it was the Tories revoking) would see an SNP 2015 style landslide under FPTP if MPs cancelled Brexit without even another referendum
    How many of the people who want to “get Brexit done” would want to “go through Brexit all over again”? Certainly less than 100%.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    nichomar said:

    what better place can the Labour Party ever have than in where they are now. They would be stark staring bonkers to vote for a GE they hold the key and can, if the can contain their own MPs to wait for ‘events’ it will never get worse but it may get better. I have to turn TV off because idiots on the pledge are shouting at each other so will see you all tomorrow after the alarm goes off playing ‘I’ve got you babe’

    "Idiots on the pledge" - sounds like unruly teenagers inhaling furniture polish !
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,524
    "You can have a proper look at my bill if you agree to an election".

    Was that Churchill or Thatcher?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    P.S. On a website where people are engaged and interested is there any chance we can dispose of boring attack lines like “Boris lies to the Queen” or “given six minutes in power, Corbyn would nationalise Heinz and ban spaghetti hoops”.
    Anabobazina said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    "Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."

    Corrected it for you.

    You get it. Can you now please educate the slower of learning PB Tories?
    Also worth emphasising that approach is not wrong. It is literally Corbyn’s job to do the thing most likely to lead to a Labour Government.

    That said with the right EU noises on Monday I think he has to back an election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,474
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?

    I think Labour can win if the GE comes after a prolonged period of Boris neither doing nor dying. Won't be easy of course but I think it's possible. In Dec I can't see anything but a Con win. Therefore must play it long. April 2020? Things could look very different by then. Might even be able to replace Corbyn with a fresh face - Gardiner or Burgon spring to mind.
    Why don't you just change your leader and your policies?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,840
    egg said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    "Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table it is convinced it might be able to win it."

    Corrected it for you.

    I like this post because it’s true. They can’t say it, so they make something up. Take no deal off table. How?
    In theory you could argue it's still on the table all the way until the end of the transition period.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,681
    Nigelb said:

    Over half the electorate is willing to see violence against MPs in order to get what they want:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/majority-of-voters-think-violence-against-mps-is-price-worth-paying-for-brexit

    Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.

    I want MPs beaten soundly with sticks.

    But I'm not prepared to see violence against MPs to get my goal.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,319
    PaulM said:

    JohnO said:

    The forthcoming Bassetlaw by-election ('cos that and Buckingham the only ones we're likely to get this year) will be compelling. Tories need a 4.7% swing to gain. Will Lord Mann give them his backing?

    Given Bassetlaw CLP were happy to have Mann be the candidate and Joe Ashton before that, You'd think they might a have a similar minded candidate next time as well unless the NEC get involved.
    Oh, but the NEC is bound to be involved. In such a spectacular clash, it is surely inconceivable that the Labour leadership could countenance a candidate who would vote for Johnson's deal (and as virulently anti-Corbyn) as John Mann has been and done.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,840
    kinabalu said:

    "You can have a proper look at my bill if you agree to an election".

    Was that Churchill or Thatcher?

    That's what passes for sexy pillow talk in Westminster.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    CD13 said:

    Mr egg.

    "It’s not and shouldn’t be about a single binary issue like Brexit.” is it a fair point or not?"

    It's a fair point, but not reasonable. 'Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?" is a fair question to ask, but ...

    🙂

    The quote came from Ben Bradshaw. Half expect HY to tell me latest polling has losing by 15k
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,524
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Why don't you just change your leader and your policies?

    The policies are shaping up fine IMO.

    Leader? Well he did well last time so he has earned the right to fight the next one health permitting. And the other point is that there needs to be a female replacement ready to roll and I'm not sure there is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,635
    (FPT)
    Casino_Royale said:

    AndyJS said:

    rottenborough said:

    Britain finally loses its tiny mind:

    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1187419776450285569

    The Brexit virus has destroyed this country. Can we ever come back?

    Terrifying if true. We can only hope this study isn't accurate.
    It isn't. The details of the study show those that want it are about 4-7% of respondents.

    The big number is made up by 'I see it as a risk but a risk worth tolerating to..'

    Very different.
    Casino is wrong in his reading of the survey.

    The 4-7% is those who say they want to see violence against MPs regardless of Brexit.
    Two thirds are happy to see violence if it achieves Brexit.

    And fully half of remainers feel the same way about avoiding it.

    These are horrendous numbers even if taken with a pinch of salt (6% of leavers, for instance, claim they want to be poorer, irrespective of Brexit).
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    You are avoiding the central premise of this which is that as things stand Labour are unelectable. What do you see changing in this regard in the near future?

    I think Labour can win if the GE comes after a prolonged period of Boris neither doing nor dying. Won't be easy of course but I think it's possible. In Dec I can't see anything but a Con win. Therefore must play it long. April 2020? Things could look very different by then. Might even be able to replace Corbyn with a fresh face - Gardiner or Burgon spring to mind.
    Burgon?

    :smiley:
    That would be the Burgon conclusion of the party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,453
    I'll be honest I'm feeling a alot better about politics this evening than in a long while. I see Corbyn has fully been taken hostage by the moderates now. Labour can play this game all the way till 2022 if they like :p but they can't run forever from the electorate.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,197
    nunuone said:

    Andrew said:

    The Guardian's man in Brussels says …..

    https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1187459382994452480

    So if Parliament doesn't vote for an election, then Macron will say "non" to an extension that lasts till 31sr Jan?
    Thus forcing MPs to then vote for an election or pass the Boris Deal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,453
    justin124 said:

    It does raise the question again as to why Corbyn went along with Theresa May's election plans in April 2017!

    Backed his own judgement then, clearly not in charge right now
This discussion has been closed.

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