politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that
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Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.0 -
"No deal" is off the table, no chance she'll allow Corbyn in (Pre-election anyway)Noo said:
In ordinary circumstances. But there are emergency scenarios she would allow it for a limited period of time.Pulpstar said:
Tory Swinson won't allow that.Noo said:
VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street.Stocky said:Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0 -
Collisions that are risk-free for one party but dangerous for the other? Sounds like a recipe for slaughter.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.1 -
EU wont be too quick on this..it pushes the BJ election another week down the road if he doesnt get an answer by tomorrow.dyedwoolie said:Varadkar has stated there is not yet agreement for a flextension to Jan 31 and it's not guaranteed the UK could stay in a CU, we would need to negotiate it
He expects an emergency council Friday or monday if no unanimity by then0 -
Or Jeremy Corbyn could have mentioned the current Tory government's dependence on support from the DUP which makes sure to clear its Brexit policy with the UDA and the UVF:justin124 said:Corbyn could have better prepared himself for Johnson's IRA remarks.There was always a high probability that at some point he would say something like that. He should have responded with ' We all know that the PM has a compulsive aversion to telling the truth - and the evidence is overwhelming that he is a lower form of life!'.
Belfast Telegraph, 15 October 2019:
"DUP leader Arlene Foster met with a number of prominent loyalists during a series of meetings last week over Brexit, it has been alleged.
The revelation came after loyalist paramilitaries threatened protests if Northern Ireland's status in the UK is "diluted" after the UK leaves the EU. The warning led to calls for greater engagement with the loyalist community.
In a series of tweets yesterday, journalist Brian Rowan alleged that Mrs Foster, along with other senior DUP colleagues, met with Jimmy Birch, Jackie McDonald and Matt Kincaid, who have previously been named as senior UDA figures.
At a separate meeting, organised through the auspices of the Action for Community Transformation project, Mr Rowan stated that alleged senior UVF members Winston Irvine and Harry Stockman were present."0 -
It's not off the table, unless I've missed a definitive announcement from the EU today. I agree the risk is looking like it's pushed back for now. And FWIW I don't think Corbyn's likely to end up as PM from a VONC, I'm just saying there are still pathways that lead to that rather than the likelier election. It depends on whether Conservatives want to take that "risk".Pulpstar said:
"No deal" is off the table, no chance she'll allow Corbyn in (Pre-election anyway)Noo said:
In ordinary circumstances. But there are emergency scenarios she would allow it for a limited period of time.Pulpstar said:
Tory Swinson won't allow that.Noo said:
VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street.Stocky said:Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0 -
I think the SNP and Lib Dems are probably genuine in their desire for an election. Labour, the Tories and Johnson personally all have reasons not to want one. Labour because their polling position is poor, the Tories because they cannot be sure of a majority and Johnson because he doesn't want to risk being kicked out of Downing Street after only a few months.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.
But the WAIB will not progress in the current parliament - it will be amended to death if it ever reappears. So an election may be unavoidable.0 -
Formula E?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.
I'm not sure that driving a racing car while off your face on ecstasy is a good idea.0 -
Who do you trust more?Gardenwalker said:
It is embarrassing to go through this process and have huge respect for Tusk and Barnier (but not Juncker), whereas May and Johnson, Davis and Raab have all been pisspoor.Benpointer said:
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1186934014864691200?s=210 -
I know I keep banging on about this, but the Lib Dems do not want an election soon.anothernick said:
I think the SNP and Lib Dems are probably genuine in their desire for an election. Labour, the Tories and Johnson personally all have reasons not to want one. Labour because their polling position is poor, the Tories because they cannot be sure of a majority and Johnson because he doesn't want to risk being kicked out of Downing Street after only a few months.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.
But the WAIB will not progress in the current parliament - it will be amended to death if it ever reappears. So an election may be unavoidable.0 -
It is - though likely not for the UK car industry.Philip_Thompson said:
Good news!philiph said:FPT
Discussion about electric cars, I came across this:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/honda-brings-forward-electrification-deadline-to-2022/ar-AAJdNjY?ocid=spartanntp
The commitment means every volume Honda model sold will use either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or fully electric drive.
All mainstream non-electrified petrol and diesel versions will cease production for Europe by the end of 2022.0 -
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Indeed. If he inflicts a Dec election on the public it will utterly ruin the festive season. I mean, just imagine, all of that crap going on when people are meant to be relaxing with family. Would they know it's Christmas time at all?Scott_P said:If BoZo tries for an early election, might the opposition parties be disinclined to agree, given "It's Christmas, you muppet!" ?
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Exactly, the art of betting is knowing when not to bet.Nigelb said:
Sounds like bloody good advice to me.Stocky said:Alistair said: " Never have I been so glad to have not been betting on timings or existence of General Election and/or Referendum etc.
I have zero clue. Zero."
Thanks for the help mate
For me, this is one of those times.
I managed to make money laying then backing Boris Johnson after it got down to the final two. I feel pretty shrewd as political bettors go.
I feel I have zero insight into this and advise leaving it all well alone. More power to anyone who has ridden these markets to profit.0 -
On the 5th day of Christmas my true love gave to me a Bozza Majorityyyyyy
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What were those other leaders leads over the LOTO?Scott_P said:Hey BoZo, call an election...
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/11869948722234490880 -
Compare Boris's figures to Corbyn's. Yes lets have an election, you can see why Labour MPs and supporters are bricking it.Scott_P said:Hey BoZo, call an election...
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/11869948722234490880 -
Talking about different things so false equivalence.williamglenn said:
Who do you trust more?Gardenwalker said:
It is embarrassing to go through this process and have huge respect for Tusk and Barnier (but not Juncker), whereas May and Johnson, Davis and Raab have all been pisspoor.Benpointer said:
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1186934014864691200?s=210 -
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Indeed. Are the constructors really going to want to have their flounce-prone drivers beaten by a spotty 12 year old in Croydon playing in his bedroom?Noo said:
Collisions that are risk-free for one party but dangerous for the other? Sounds like a recipe for slaughter.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.0 -
Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
That is not uncommon for Farage! Whilst the PM is riding high in the polls the attack lines for his opponents are clear cut, I expect BXP to make some small progress under an election campaign.Richard_Tyndall said:
Talking about different things so false equivalence.williamglenn said:
Who do you trust more?Gardenwalker said:
It is embarrassing to go through this process and have huge respect for Tusk and Barnier (but not Juncker), whereas May and Johnson, Davis and Raab have all been pisspoor.Benpointer said:
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1186934014864691200?s=210 -
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
Ireland need 19 off the last over to beat Canada in the t20 WC Quals0
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I've just written a Chrome browser extension that replaces all occurrences of the phrase "No 10 source" with "Dominic Cummings". It makes the news more... honest.Alphabet_Soup said:
"journalists' use of No 10 sources". And vice versa, of course.Scott_P said:1 -
I think Boris probably does want an election, as there is a good chance of things getting worse for him, and he can't necessarily prevent an election at a time he doesn't want. I rather think however he is fearful of the VONC route. Boris's one principle is having become PM to stay PM. A VONC does not automatically remove him, but with the Commons in its present mood you can't exclude the idea that following a VONC some magical person (Clarke, Benn, Cooper) could become PM of a cobbled GNU with a VOC, at which point the Boris project is over. JC doesn't much want a VONC either becuase it could be the end of him, following an election. If I am right Boris would be keen on either a Commons 2/3 vote for an election, by agreement with Labour, or a one line Bill, but not a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.
Agree about drunken youths outside a nightclub, who as a group are more to be admired than the current state of the parties.
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Perhaps in a FTPA amendment, with the date hardcoded? Could be tricky.Pulpstar said:
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
The Opposition isn't goibg to agree to an election where Bojo sets the date. They will control when it happens.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
No, I don't think so, except perhaps via an agreed one-line bill. But in truth I think Labour are (unsurprisingly) trying to find an excuse. "Oh Lord, grant us an election soon, but not quite yet".Pulpstar said:
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
In fairness to Nigel Farage (five words I rarely start a sentence with), Boris Johnson has also said that the next stage will be wrapped up by the end of next year, so there is still a mismatch between what Boris Johnson and Michel Barnier have said on the subject.Richard_Tyndall said:
Talking about different things so false equivalence.williamglenn said:
Who do you trust more?Gardenwalker said:
It is embarrassing to go through this process and have huge respect for Tusk and Barnier (but not Juncker), whereas May and Johnson, Davis and Raab have all been pisspoor.Benpointer said:
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1186934014864691200?s=21
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Presumably a one-line bill could be passed fixing an election date if Labour and the Tories agreed on it?Pulpstar said:
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
In order to avoid an election Labour make themselves look ever more ridiculous ?0
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It's hard to think of any party in the UK which isn't looking ridiculous at the moment.Pulpstar said:In order to avoid an election Labour make themselves look ever more ridiculous ?
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They should name a date then.Alistair said:
The Opposition isn't going to agree to an election where Bojo sets the date. They will control when it happens.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
If they agree just vote for it under the FTAanothernick said:
Presumably a one-line bill could be passed fixing an election date if Labour and the Tories agreed on it?Pulpstar said:
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
The DUP are giving them a run for their money.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's hard to think of any party in the UK which isn't looking ridiculous at the moment.Pulpstar said:In order to avoid an election Labour make themselves look ever more ridiculous ?
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Pretty meaningless, if the last one before Johnson to have a negative rating after 3 months lasted longer than all the others.Scott_P said:Hey BoZo, call an election...
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1186994872223449088
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It's perfectly easy for the Commons to agree the date of the election (lets say 5th December) in law as part of the election motion.
It always was actually... The date could easily have been fixed, in law, for 14th or 15th October for example.
All of the stuff at the time about ensuring "no deal" didn't happen was bullshit.1 -
It would be crazy for Labour to facilitate an election in the current climate and circumstances. From this - Holmes like - I make the deduction that they won't.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
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It's pretty reliant on the extension the EU offer I would have thought.Pulpstar said:
They should name a date then.Alistair said:
The Opposition isn't going to agree to an election where Bojo sets the date. They will control when it happens.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
I don't agree the Boris project is over in that circumstance. He had united the Tory vote and is leading in the polls, so will stay as Tory leader until the next GE.algarkirk said:
I think Boris probably does want an election, as there is a good chance of things getting worse for him, and he can't necessarily prevent an election at a time he doesn't want. I rather think however he is fearful of the VONC route. Boris's one principle is having become PM to stay PM. A VONC does not automatically remove him, but with the Commons in its present mood you can't exclude the idea that following a VONC some magical person (Clarke, Benn, Cooper) could become PM of a cobbled GNU with a VOC, at which point the Boris project is over. JC doesn't much want a VONC either becuase it could be the end of him, following an election. If I am right Boris would be keen on either a Commons 2/3 vote for an election, by agreement with Labour, or a one line Bill, but not a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.
Agree about drunken youths outside a nightclub, who as a group are more to be admired than the current state of the parties.0 -
I think Labours new ploy looks desperate .
If the EU agree to an extension till 31 January then why would Bozo then try to crash the UK out with no deal if he’s already agreed an election date, and is he really going to go for no deal in the middle of an election .
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It'll be 30th January.Alistair said:
It's pretty reliant on the extension the EU offer I would have thought.Pulpstar said:
They should name a date then.Alistair said:
The Opposition isn't going to agree to an election where Bojo sets the date. They will control when it happens.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1186990470460837890
I think the Tories will be happy to fight on ANY date before then.0 -
How do the collisions *with 'ghosts'* happen?Noo said:
Collisions that are risk-free for one party but dangerous for the other? Sounds like a recipe for slaughter.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.
https://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2019/april/formulae-ghost-racing-launched0 -
Richard Burgon said they wanted an election now on R4 this morning. And as he's wrong about pretty much everything...kinabalu said:
It would be crazy for Labour to facilitate an election in the current climate and circumstances. From this - Holmes like - I make the deduction that they won't.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
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If Labour are clearly trying to avoid an election, and the Tories won't countenance a referendum rerun, doesn't that make the EU think "screw this" and just give two weeks extension?Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I don't think so, except perhaps via an agreed one-line bill. But in truth I think Labour are (unsurprisingly) trying to find an excuse. "Oh Lord, grant us an election soon, but not quite yet".Pulpstar said:
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
..which will most likely produce another hung parliament. Boris is shit, Corbyn is shit. They are all part of the same pointlessBrexit shitstorm. A GE will change very littlePhilip_Thompson said:
Compare Boris's figures to Corbyn's. Yes lets have an election, you can see why Labour MPs and supporters are bricking it.Scott_P said:Hey BoZo, call an election...
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/11869948722234490880 -
Hark, is that a goalpost being shifted by Labour re: their desire for a GE?0
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"united the Tory vote"? Are you having a laugh?Gabs2 said:
I don't agree the Boris project is over in that circumstance. He had united the Tory vote and is leading in the polls, so will stay as Tory leader until the next GE.algarkirk said:
I think Boris probably does want an election, as there is a good chance of things getting worse for him, and he can't necessarily prevent an election at a time he doesn't want. I rather think however he is fearful of the VONC route. Boris's one principle is having become PM to stay PM. A VONC does not automatically remove him, but with the Commons in its present mood you can't exclude the idea that following a VONC some magical person (Clarke, Benn, Cooper) could become PM of a cobbled GNU with a VOC, at which point the Boris project is over. JC doesn't much want a VONC either becuase it could be the end of him, following an election. If I am right Boris would be keen on either a Commons 2/3 vote for an election, by agreement with Labour, or a one line Bill, but not a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.
Agree about drunken youths outside a nightclub, who as a group are more to be admired than the current state of the parties.0 -
Oh. Oh dear. I think Noo assumed that there'd be remote-controlled cars piloted by Morris Dancer sitting in his underwear in his bedroom.TrèsDifficile said:
How do the collisions *with 'ghosts'* happen?Noo said:
Collisions that are risk-free for one party but dangerous for the other? Sounds like a recipe for slaughter.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.
https://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2019/april/formulae-ghost-racing-launched0 -
Yes as much as posters are saying all parties look ridiculous, this "we might crash out on 31st January" is utterly utterly ludicrous.nico67 said:I think Labours new ploy looks desperate .
If the EU agree to an extension till 31 January then why would Bozo then try to crash the UK out with no deal if he’s already agreed an election date, and is he really going to go for no deal in the middle of an election .
I might get a by-election in January anyway.0 -
I misunderstood the proposition. I thought he meant remote controlled carsTrèsDifficile said:
How do the collisions *with 'ghosts'* happen?Noo said:
Collisions that are risk-free for one party but dangerous for the other? Sounds like a recipe for slaughter.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.
https://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2019/april/formulae-ghost-racing-launched0 -
Yes, guilty as charged. I'll take this one on the chin.Anorak said:
Oh. Oh dear. I think Noo assumed that there'd be remote-controlled cars piloted by Morris Dancer sitting in his underwear in his bedroom.TrèsDifficile said:
How do the collisions *with 'ghosts'* happen?Noo said:
Collisions that are risk-free for one party but dangerous for the other? Sounds like a recipe for slaughter.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.
https://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2019/april/formulae-ghost-racing-launched0 -
Pretty much ?Nigel_Foremain said:
"united the Tory vote"? Are you having a laugh?Gabs2 said:
I don't agree the Boris project is over in that circumstance. He had united the Tory vote and is leading in the polls, so will stay as Tory leader until the next GE.algarkirk said:
I think Boris probably does want an election, as there is a good chance of things getting worse for him, and he can't necessarily prevent an election at a time he doesn't want. I rather think however he is fearful of the VONC route. Boris's one principle is having become PM to stay PM. A VONC does not automatically remove him, but with the Commons in its present mood you can't exclude the idea that following a VONC some magical person (Clarke, Benn, Cooper) could become PM of a cobbled GNU with a VOC, at which point the Boris project is over. JC doesn't much want a VONC either becuase it could be the end of him, following an election. If I am right Boris would be keen on either a Commons 2/3 vote for an election, by agreement with Labour, or a one line Bill, but not a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.
Agree about drunken youths outside a nightclub, who as a group are more to be admired than the current state of the parties.
There's a missing 7 odd% somewhere from the height of May but it's back to Cameron numbers.0 -
No, I think they'll want to stay as far away as possible from anything which either looks like interference in the UK's affairs, or which might land them with some of the blame for an accidental no-deal crash-out. So I think they will play it absolutely straight by agreeing to the request which Boris has already (if reluctantly) made for an extension to the 31st January (with a reminder that it could be earlier if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified earlier).Gabs2 said:
If Labour are clearly trying to avoid an election, and the Tories won't countenance a referendum rerun, doesn't that make the EU think "screw this" and just give two weeks extension?1 -
The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .0
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No wonder BoZo doesn't want anyone to actually read on understand the bill
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/11869898306952151060 -
Extension decision delayed till Friday apparently.0
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Is Labour now trying to say Boris will call an election in late October, and then extend the campaign through November, December AND January so we don't vote until February?Pulpstar said:
Yes as much as posters are saying all parties look ridiculous, this "we might crash out on 31st January" is utterly utterly ludicrous.nico67 said:I think Labours new ploy looks desperate .
If the EU agree to an extension till 31 January then why would Bozo then try to crash the UK out with no deal if he’s already agreed an election date, and is he really going to go for no deal in the middle of an election .
Risible!0 -
They're staying even more neutral than that - it is now not "Boris' request" but the "UK request" (As per Tusk language)Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I think they'll want to stay as far away as possible from anything which either looks like interference in the UK's affairs, or which might land them with some of the blame for an accidental no-deal crash-out. So I think they will play it absolutely straight by agreeing to the request which Boris has already (if reluctantly) made for an extension to the 31st January.Gabs2 said:
If Labour are clearly trying to avoid an election, and the Tories won't countenance a referendum rerun, doesn't that make the EU think "screw this" and just give two weeks extension?0 -
Yes, it's laughable. I suppose in theory Labour could keep playing this game till 2022 though.GIN1138 said:
Is Labour now trying to say Boris will call an election in late October, and then extend the campaign through November, December AND January so we don't vote until February?Pulpstar said:
Yes as much as posters are saying all parties look ridiculous, this "we might crash out on 31st January" is utterly utterly ludicrous.nico67 said:I think Labours new ploy looks desperate .
If the EU agree to an extension till 31 January then why would Bozo then try to crash the UK out with no deal if he’s already agreed an election date, and is he really going to go for no deal in the middle of an election .
Risible!
Best of luck to them if they do that mind.0 -
I think you've got it the wrong way around. I think Labour are trying to say the vote has to be before the date of the end of the extension, not after.GIN1138 said:
Is Labour now trying to say Boris will call an election in late October, and then extend the campaign through November, December AND January so we don't vote until February?Pulpstar said:
Yes as much as posters are saying all parties look ridiculous, this "we might crash out on 31st January" is utterly utterly ludicrous.nico67 said:I think Labours new ploy looks desperate .
If the EU agree to an extension till 31 January then why would Bozo then try to crash the UK out with no deal if he’s already agreed an election date, and is he really going to go for no deal in the middle of an election .
Risible!0 -
It seemed pretty crazy of them to agree to one in April 2017. But at 10pm on polling day it seemed rather less crazy.kinabalu said:
It would be crazy for Labour to facilitate an election in the current climate and circumstances. From this - Holmes like - I make the deduction that they won't.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
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Well, yes of course. I was just trying to wind up @HYUFD.Pulpstar said:
They're staying even more neutral than that - it is now not "Boris' request" but the "UK request" (As per Tusk language)Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I think they'll want to stay as far away as possible from anything which either looks like interference in the UK's affairs, or which might land them with some of the blame for an accidental no-deal crash-out. So I think they will play it absolutely straight by agreeing to the request which Boris has already (if reluctantly) made for an extension to the 31st January.Gabs2 said:
If Labour are clearly trying to avoid an election, and the Tories won't countenance a referendum rerun, doesn't that make the EU think "screw this" and just give two weeks extension?0 -
Perhaps Corbyn should have the courage of his convictions again thenanothernick said:
It seemed pretty crazy of them to agree to one in April 2017. But at 10pm on polling day it seemed rather less crazy.kinabalu said:
It would be crazy for Labour to facilitate an election in the current climate and circumstances. From this - Holmes like - I make the deduction that they won't.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
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17.4 million voted for Brexit not a Clean-Break Brexit.williamglenn said:
I did not vote for a Clean-Break Brexit. I voted hoping for the deal the Vote Leave team said they should get and now have got.0 -
What happened to the whole "As soon as 'No deal' is off the table" we will have an election from Labour ?
I suppose Johnson hasn't died in a ditch either mind ;p-1 -
FWIW I think he should.Pulpstar said:
Perhaps Corbyn should have the courage of his convictions again thenanothernick said:
It seemed pretty crazy of them to agree to one in April 2017. But at 10pm on polling day it seemed rather less crazy.kinabalu said:
It would be crazy for Labour to facilitate an election in the current climate and circumstances. From this - Holmes like - I make the deduction that they won't.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
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Just as well, as they might fall foul of the ERG's proposed new law about colluding with foreign powers...nico67 said:The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .
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If it is by means of a bill amending or setting aside the FTPA, they can attach an amendment and ensure it for themselves.Pulpstar said:
Can the PM give them that ?Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, maybe go easy on the bets on an early GE.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/11869904704608378900 -
Labour are going to run out of excuses, and road.Scott_P said:
They should at least look like they are driving the process rather than being dragged to the ballot box like a condemned prisoner.1 -
Ambushed by Tony Livesey on Radio 5, Kawczynski sheepishly admitted not knowing the Polish for 'veto', despite being a soi-disant 'nearly fluent speaker'.nico67 said:The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .
"It's 'weto', pronounced 'veto' ", said a triumphant Livesey.2 -
I don’t fancy getting blasted by a red shell (for mariokart fans)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, don't know if it's happened yet or coming soon, but Formula E is going to enable gamers to 'drive' against the actual drivers in real time, combining gaming with sports coverage.
It's a brilliant idea.
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Quite rightnico67 said:The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .
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Yeah, not sure why no 10 haven’t tried to stop him. Useful idiot, I suppose.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Quite rightnico67 said:The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .
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Remember when Brexit was all about *reducing* bureaucracy?Scott_P said:No wonder BoZo doesn't want anyone to actually read on understand the bill
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/11869898306952151060 -
I can’t imagine he will go any later than Dec 5th. I’m certainly not in festive relaxing mode at that stage and if it is that date we have a work conference that day and I would need to request a postal vote.kinabalu said:
Indeed. If he inflicts a Dec election on the public it will utterly ruin the festive season. I mean, just imagine, all of that crap going on when people are meant to be relaxing with family. Would they know it's Christmas time at all?Scott_P said:If BoZo tries for an early election, might the opposition parties be disinclined to agree, given "It's Christmas, you muppet!" ?
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I wonder if at some point Sturgeon (She's much smarter than Blackford) will send the orders after we receive the formal extension.GIN1138 said:0 -
An extension to 31st January as specified in the Benn Act was always an odd choice, as it killed a referendum stone dead (no time before, requires yet ANOTHER extension from the EU to be held - somebody will scream "Enough extensions! Fucking decide!!!).nico67 said:I think Labours new ploy looks desperate .
If the EU agree to an extension till 31 January then why would Bozo then try to crash the UK out with no deal if he’s already agreed an election date, and is he really going to go for no deal in the middle of an election .
With another referendum off the agenda, do those who have been calling for it instead want the Boris Deal, or revoke? Journalists who have had enough of being hand-fed scraps on lobby terms might instead start, you know, asking some awkward questions of the awkward squad.....0 -
One of Hunt's mistakes and where Johnson is a much better leader was to emphasise we "could have an election putting Corbyn into No 10".
That looked like a weak line to me and I said so at the time.0 -
28th October EU grant extension to 31 Jan (shortenable).
Gov introduces bill saying: 'Notwithstanding FTPA the next election shall be on Nov 28 with parliament rising on October 31.'
Can't see why this can't happen. Easier than getting 2/3 majority. Would labour risk voting against and look afraid of election?
Leaves Dec and Jan to scrutinise WAB. But perhaps Boris would prefer only Jan to be available to pass WAB in case only a small majority so Dec 5 or 12 more likely?
Agreeing new program motion and then shortening extension seems more logical but if Boris is confident of getting a majority then above route seems plausibly available? Or am I misunderstanding/missing something?1 -
With the FTPA the times when both parties actually want an election will be rare. One of the parties will tend to prefer a delay. We should get used to the school ground posturing of threats and backtracking from both sides.Pulpstar said:What happened to the whole "As soon as 'No deal' is off the table" we will have an election from Labour ?
I suppose Johnson hasn't died in a ditch either mind ;p0 -
This is what happened in 2017
"On 18 April 2017, the Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would seek an election on 8 June,[21] despite previously ruling out an early election.[22][23] A House of Commons motion to allow this was passed on 19 April, with 522 votes for and 13 against, a majority of 509.[24] The motion was supported by the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, while the SNP abstained.[21] Nine Labour MPs, one SDLP MP and three independents (Sylvia Hermon and two former SNP MPs, Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson) voted against the motion.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn supported the early election,[26] as did Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron and the Green Party.[27][28] The SNP stated that it was in favour of fixed-term parliaments, and would abstain in the House of Commons vote.[29] UKIP leader Paul Nuttall and First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones criticised May for being opportunistic in the timing of the election, motivated by the then strong position of the Conservative Party in the opinion polls.
On 25 April, the election date was confirmed as 8 June,[32] with dissolution on 3 May. The government announced that it intended for the next parliament to assemble on 13 June, with the state opening on 19 June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
If the election date is set for 5th December it's set for 5th December and the PM wouldn't be able to change it without a recall of Parliament and Parliaments agreement.
That was the same with a 14th or 15th October election of well of course.
Things would get messy if something happened mid-campaign that meant the election had to be postponed but again it couldn't happen without a recall of Parliament and Parliaments agreement.0 -
Drop the word useful.RobD said:
Yeah, not sure why no 10 haven’t tried to stop him. Useful idiot, I suppose.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Quite rightnico67 said:The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .
He's a backbencher isn't he? Better to let idiot backbenchers like that do their own harmless things in the background than try and stop idiots saying something stupid all the time.0 -
A 'Peoples Parliament' that would finally honour the referendum result.Nemtynakht said:
I can’t imagine he will go any later than Dec 5th. I’m certainly not in festive relaxing mode at that stage and if it is that date we have a work conference that day and I would need to request a postal vote.
A fantastic Christmas present for the 17m+ who voted to leave.0 -
The next majority government (of whatever colour) will be sorely tempted to repeal the FTPA.noneoftheabove said:
With the FTPA the times when both parties actually want an election will be rare. One of the parties will tend to prefer a delay. We should get used to the school ground posturing of threats and backtracking from both sides.
It was legislation of its time which has been exposed in ways that couldn't have been envisaged in 2010.0 -
How could the opposition amend it would be the question.crandles said:28th October EU grant extension to 31 Jan (shortenable).
Gov introduces bill saying: 'Notwithstanding FTPA the next election shall be on Nov 28 with parliament rising on October 31.'
Can't see why this can't happen. Easier than getting 2/3 majority. Would labour risk voting against and look afraid of election?
Leaves Dec and Jan to scrutinise WAB. But perhaps Boris would prefer only Jan to be available to pass WAB in case only a small majority so Dec 5 or 12 more likely?
Agreeing new program motion and then shortening extension seems more logical but if Boris is confident of getting a majority then above route seems plausibly available? Or am I misunderstanding/missing something?
They could change the date (Wouldn't worry the Gov't I expect)
I don't think they can change the system to some form of PR - Labour wouldn't want to anyway given its appalling polling.
Try and change franchise to 16/17 - would that get the votes ? Not sure
EU Citizens looks to be the one but I'm not sure it has the votes.0 -
“I don't know what to do!" cried Scrooge, laughing and crying in the same breath; and making a perfect Laocoön of himself with his stockings. "I am as light as a feather, I am as happy as an angel, I am as merry as a school-boy. I am as giddy as a drunken man. A merry Christmas to every-body! A happy New Year to all the world! Hallo here! Whoop! Hallo!”SunnyJim said:
A 'Peoples Parliament' that would finally honour the referendum result.Nemtynakht said:
I can’t imagine he will go any later than Dec 5th. I’m certainly not in festive relaxing mode at that stage and if it is that date we have a work conference that day and I would need to request a postal vote.
A fantastic Christmas present for the 17m+ who voted to leave.0 -
Yes, FTPA won't survivie the next majority government.SunnyJim said:
The next majority government (of whatever colour) will be sorely tempted to repeal the FTPA.noneoftheabove said:
With the FTPA the times when both parties actually want an election will be rare. One of the parties will tend to prefer a delay. We should get used to the school ground posturing of threats and backtracking from both sides.
It was legislation of its time which has been exposed in ways that couldn't have been envisaged in 2010.0 -
The date of the election is set by proclamation, and it was set a week after parliament had voted for it. I think that’s their worry.GIN1138 said:This is what happened in 2017
"On 18 April 2017, the Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would seek an election on 8 June,[21] despite previously ruling out an early election.[22][23] A House of Commons motion to allow this was passed on 19 April, with 522 votes for and 13 against, a majority of 509.[24] The motion was supported by the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, while the SNP abstained.[21] Nine Labour MPs, one SDLP MP and three independents (Sylvia Hermon and two former SNP MPs, Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson) voted against the motion.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn supported the early election,[26] as did Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron and the Green Party.[27][28] The SNP stated that it was in favour of fixed-term parliaments, and would abstain in the House of Commons vote.[29] UKIP leader Paul Nuttall and First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones criticised May for being opportunistic in the timing of the election, motivated by the then strong position of the Conservative Party in the opinion polls.
On 25 April, the election date was confirmed as 8 June,[32] with dissolution on 3 May. The government announced that it intended for the next parliament to assemble on 13 June, with the state opening on 19 June.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
If the election date is set for 5th December it's set for 5th December and the PM wouldn't be able to change it without a recall of Parliament and Parliaments agreement.
That was the same with a 14th or 15th October election of well of course.
Of course things would get messy if something happened mid-campaign that meant the election had to be postponed but again it couldn't happen without a recall of Parliament and Parliaments agreement.1 -
Can things be voted on that just basically say "ignoring law x"? That sounds hilarious. "Notwithstanding the [whatever act that makes it illegal to murder people] we say we can kill Bob because he is funny looking". Fun timescrandles said:28th October EU grant extension to 31 Jan (shortenable).
Gov introduces bill saying: 'Notwithstanding FTPA the next election shall be on Nov 28 with parliament rising on October 31.'
Can't see why this can't happen. Easier than getting 2/3 majority. Would labour risk voting against and look afraid of election?
Leaves Dec and Jan to scrutinise WAB. But perhaps Boris would prefer only Jan to be available to pass WAB in case only a small majority so Dec 5 or 12 more likely?
Agreeing new program motion and then shortening extension seems more logical but if Boris is confident of getting a majority then above route seems plausibly available? Or am I misunderstanding/missing something?0 -
SunnyJim said:
A 'Peoples Parliament' that would finally honour the referendum result.Nemtynakht said:
I can’t imagine he will go any later than Dec 5th. I’m certainly not in festive relaxing mode at that stage and if it is that date we have a work conference that day and I would need to request a postal vote.
A fantastic Christmas present for the 17m+ who voted to leave.
If the Brexit party aren’t silly buggers, yes.0 -
Vying with Burgon for dimmest MP of the day, I see.Streeter said:
Ambushed by Tony Livesey on Radio 5, Kawczynski sheepishly admitted not knowing the Polish for 'veto', despite being a soi-disant 'nearly fluent speaker'.nico67 said:The Polish government has basically told those Tories trying to get them to veto an extension to get lost .
"It's 'weto', pronounced 'veto' ", said a triumphant Livesey.0 -
Parliament is sovereign. The law will be change to “this is the law, except for on this one date”.148grss said:
Can things be voted on that just basically say "ignoring law x"? That sounds hilarious. "Notwithstanding the [whatever act that makes it illegal to murder people] we say we can kill Bob because he is funny looking". Fun timescrandles said:28th October EU grant extension to 31 Jan (shortenable).
Gov introduces bill saying: 'Notwithstanding FTPA the next election shall be on Nov 28 with parliament rising on October 31.'
Can't see why this can't happen. Easier than getting 2/3 majority. Would labour risk voting against and look afraid of election?
Leaves Dec and Jan to scrutinise WAB. But perhaps Boris would prefer only Jan to be available to pass WAB in case only a small majority so Dec 5 or 12 more likely?
Agreeing new program motion and then shortening extension seems more logical but if Boris is confident of getting a majority then above route seems plausibly available? Or am I misunderstanding/missing something?0