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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month
Betdata.io chart of Betfair market
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Maybe.
Bloomin' copy cats .......
Catnip for remainers.
The Tories will bang on about Labour blocking the deal even though many supported it.
Catnip for leavers.
I've long suspected that following an actual campaign, Labour could do rather better than expected if they tap into the same well of sentiment that Boris is tapping with the "get it done" narrative. Looks like we might soon find out.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Thanks.
What is actually happening is the Brexit Party is staying stubbornly high - but not bcause of disgruntled Tories defecting. It is because Labour is seen to be the party delaying the implementation of Brexit. And it is incoming Labour leavers that is keeping it high. Tory Brexiteers aren't blaming Boris - so his polling is staying firm.
Meanwhile, Swinson makes hay with Remainers that Brexit isn't being killed off - because of frit Labour MPs.
Frit Labour MPs are still staying onboard - even under a leaderhip that is widely considered tolerant of its anti-semitic members.
An even more perfect storm than Labour suffered in Scotland? It certainly doesn't apper to be a party with opportunities for those looking for a long-term career in politics.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.
There can't be too many potential voters who aren't aware of Corbyn's past so it's already 'baked in' to his polling. It is just a useful barb to throw every now and again.
No different really to references to Boris's colourful backstory which is well known.
By what mechanism I don’t know, I understand it’s not straightforward.
But there must surely be one.
Boris is doing well in the polls, it must be conceded. Whereas for the longest time I expected any election to simply return another minority government, I’d now expect Boris to achieve a majority.
While I think Labour will outperform current polling, let’s be honest - their only real hope is to depose Corbyn and “do a Jacinda Ardern”.
Perhaps that’s why Watson, Thornberry and Starmer are stuck in a railway carriage in Cricklewood (to continue a joke from the last thread).
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=19
Sorry Boris in his backstory supported murderers and invited them into the workplace of people whose colleagues and their loved ones were murdered days earlier?
As a South Londoner I'm feeling underrepresented.
- If there's an early GE, that puts another few weeks delay into the mix and gets tangled up in Xmas, so it's reasonable to assume a new target date of midnight CET 31st Jan (which, helpfully, happens to be a Friday, leaving the weekend for any necessary administrative adjustments, and which is also not a very busy time for business). So a new Boris majority government, if we get one either just before or just after Xmas, would have to wrap things up in two or three weeks in January, which would be feasible.
- If there's no GE, the timings are probably not that different, because parliament as currently constituted is not going to rush to agree the deal now that an extension is (almost certainly) coming.
- If there's a GE which produces another hung parliament, then it's anyone's guess what eventually happens, but for sure we won't be leaving before 31st Jan.
What happens if Parliament approves the deal but the Scot Parl refuse legislative consent?
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??
I think Labour's best chance - and greatest risk - is that the election becomes a virtual referendum on Boris Johnson. If the electorate decide that they aren't sure about handing Johnson the quasi-dictatorial powers held by a PM with a substantial majority then they will find a way to prevent that, which will probably involve reluctantly voting Labour in large numbers.
It's also a risk, because a media fixation upon Johnson will drown out Labour's attempt to campaign on attractive vote-winning policies, and will grant Johnson control of the media narrative.
That`s spot on. We have a situation where Farage is, in effect, working for the benefit of the Labour Party and contrary to achieving an EU exit.
https://twitter.com/UKAnglosphere/status/1186857105380335617
I meant that it is common knowledge so people who would have been influenced already would have been.
If that makes any sense at all.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/my-boris-story/
If we get 3 months then I'm wrong and quite probably mistaken over Macrons journey too
I reckon Jeremy Corbyn DOES want a Brexit deal. He'd be quite happy to see the back of it and get on with talking about things that interest him (and most Labour supporters).
Stocky said:
"Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??"
"It would be a novel form of Confidence & Supply which obliges the DUP to vote No Confidence in the government!"
Yes Richard - I recognised this as I was typing my post - but what is the answer to my question? Despite the apparant irony would DUP be expected (obliged even) to vote in the manner that the government asked?
Given the lower age limit on MPs, one cannot assume 2019 demographics, though equally those applying in 2001 wouldn't be exactly correct either, given naturalised immigrants and deaths in the interim.
FWIW, I worked on a guesstimate 44% of the population for white British males, which would give around 0.7%.
1. It's clearly the right thing to do.
2. It makes you look stupid, Boris.
3. Stop taking us for fools. We know you're playing politics.
I always said I would not be "happy" to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland.
Boris's use of words like 'piccaninnies' is a matter of public record and well known to voters.
Those who would have been offended enough to switch their votes already would have done.
I don`t know either - but my vague understanding was that DUP agreed to support government is all aspects with the sole exception of Brexit.
Which in my book means you have no right to start lecturing Jeremy Corbyn about being toxic.
1.5% for all males.
30.2% all white.
Ok Gotcha
Let she who is without sin, etc.
He expects an emergency council Friday or monday if no unanimity by then
Corbyn is another kettle of fish, he decided to support the terrorists days after they'd murdered colleages of his. So yes I have every right.
If far right terrorists said we need to expel all minorities and halt immigration or they'd start a bombing campaign would you support them?
If Islamic terrorists said we need to expel all Jews and cover up our women and ban women from driving or voting or leaving the house without a man or they'd start a bombing campaign would you support them?
Are you prepared to sacrifice our freedoms and democracy to avoid the threat of terrorism? Because if you're not, you're the same as me.
F1: interesting but limited Twitch stream deal for Mexico:
https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1186980590853201921
I have zero clue. Zero.
On Christmas Day in the morning"
I have zero clue. Zero."
Thanks for the help mate
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186982121136623616
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).
Discussion about electric cars, I came across this:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/honda-brings-forward-electrification-deadline-to-2022/ar-AAJdNjY?ocid=spartanntp
The commitment means every volume Honda model sold will use either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or fully electric drive.
All mainstream non-electrified petrol and diesel versions will cease production for Europe by the end of 2022.
Had it escaped your notice?
Would personally love it if they gave the vote to EU citizens but I don't see it happening really.
The GE campaign slogans would write themselves.
Betfair Sportsbook 6/5 no VONC
Betfair Exchange 5/4 yes VONC
I cant imagine it trumps brexit, nhs, jobs, austerity, business etc.
Yep
EDIT: if they are, you might want a bit of that 3.7% chance of Brexit by the 31st on Betfair....
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.