politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month
Betdata.io chart of Betfair market
Comments
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COYS0
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top 2 position.... if only!0
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3rd would be respectable0
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4th is still champs league0
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Fifth is Labour's floor.
Maybe.0 -
Can I take the 5th? Like Trump?0
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7th which is more than Man Utd can hope to get.1
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Hey! I do the countdown posts around here!!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:4th is still champs league
Bloomin' copy cats .......0 -
The LD's will bang on incessantly during the GE campaign about Labour's support for Brexit even though it was only a fraction of their MPs.
Catnip for remainers.
The Tories will bang on about Labour blocking the deal even though many supported it.
Catnip for leavers.
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Leicester City fan polishes fingernails modestlyScrapheap_as_was said:3rd would be respectable
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I'm new around here..... [cough]Beibheirli_C said:
Hey! I do the countdown posts around here!!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:4th is still champs league
Bloomin' copy cats .......0 -
Labour will bang on about non-Brexit policy. Could be interesting to see whether that's catnip for anyone.SunnyJim said:The LD's will bang on incessantly during the GE campaign about Labour's support for Brexit even though it was only a fraction of their MPs.
Catnip for remainers.
The Tories will bang on about Labour blocking the deal even though many supported it.
Catnip for leavers.
I've long suspected that following an actual campaign, Labour could do rather better than expected if they tap into the same well of sentiment that Boris is tapping with the "get it done" narrative. Looks like we might soon find out.0 -
Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.2 -
After the personal abuse you were dishing out the other day I have no interest in interacting with you.Noo said:
Labour will bang on about non-Brexit policy. Could be interesting to see whether that's catnip for anyone.
I've long suspected that following an actual campaign, Labour could do rather better than expected if they tap into the same well of sentiment that Boris is tapping with the "get it done" narrative. Looks like we might soon find out.
Thanks.1 -
You can’t fire me! I’m resigning...etc...SunnyJim said:
After the personal abuse you were dishing out the other day I have no interest in interacting with you.Noo said:
Labour will bang on about non-Brexit policy. Could be interesting to see whether that's catnip for anyone.
I've long suspected that following an actual campaign, Labour could do rather better than expected if they tap into the same well of sentiment that Boris is tapping with the "get it done" narrative. Looks like we might soon find out.
Thanks.0 -
Ah well, you shouldn't have started it the day before, should you?SunnyJim said:
After the personal abuse you were dishing out the other day I have no interest in interacting with you.Noo said:
Labour will bang on about non-Brexit policy. Could be interesting to see whether that's catnip for anyone.
I've long suspected that following an actual campaign, Labour could do rather better than expected if they tap into the same well of sentiment that Boris is tapping with the "get it done" narrative. Looks like we might soon find out.
Thanks.0 -
Labour's strategy (so far at is discernible by those not on Mount Olympus) appears to be to cause Boris delays in implementing Brexit, without actually killing it off. And that will cause the Brexit Party to flourish.
What is actually happening is the Brexit Party is staying stubbornly high - but not bcause of disgruntled Tories defecting. It is because Labour is seen to be the party delaying the implementation of Brexit. And it is incoming Labour leavers that is keeping it high. Tory Brexiteers aren't blaming Boris - so his polling is staying firm.
Meanwhile, Swinson makes hay with Remainers that Brexit isn't being killed off - because of frit Labour MPs.
Frit Labour MPs are still staying onboard - even under a leaderhip that is widely considered tolerant of its anti-semitic members.
An even more perfect storm than Labour suffered in Scotland? It certainly doesn't apper to be a party with opportunities for those looking for a long-term career in politics.0 -
Jeremy invited IRA into Parliament just days after MPs and their relatives were murdered.Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.0 -
Gardenwalker said:
Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
There can't be too many potential voters who aren't aware of Corbyn's past so it's already 'baked in' to his polling. It is just a useful barb to throw every now and again.
No different really to references to Boris's colourful backstory which is well known.0 -
@dyedwoolie - If you see this, I'd be interested to hear more about your theory about Macron's journey.0
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I have expected there to be an election since Saturday, and probably before then since it seemed likely that the Letwin amendment would be allowed, and passed.
By what mechanism I don’t know, I understand it’s not straightforward.
But there must surely be one.
Boris is doing well in the polls, it must be conceded. Whereas for the longest time I expected any election to simply return another minority government, I’d now expect Boris to achieve a majority.
While I think Labour will outperform current polling, let’s be honest - their only real hope is to depose Corbyn and “do a Jacinda Ardern”.
Perhaps that’s why Watson, Thornberry and Starmer are stuck in a railway carriage in Cricklewood (to continue a joke from the last thread).0 -
Waiting for @Big_G_NorthWales to put in an appearance in 3.. 2.. 1..Philip_Thompson said:
Jeremy invited IRA into Parliament just days after MPs and their relatives were murdered.Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.0 -
BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=190 -
Peter Oborne is going absolutely tonto on Radio 2, if you're at a loose end.0
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No different?SunnyJim said:Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
There can't be too many potential voters who aren't aware of Corbyn's past so it's already 'baked in' to his polling. It is just a useful barb to throw every now and again.
No different really to references to Boris's colourful backstory which is well known.
Sorry Boris in his backstory supported murderers and invited them into the workplace of people whose colleagues and their loved ones were murdered days earlier?0 -
Is anyone going to calculate the probability that the Home Secretary and the shadow Home Secretary would both be female and from North London?
As a South Londoner I'm feeling underrepresented.0 -
His skill is in making people ignore (and indeed cheer) that he doesnt know what he is doing. At that he is outstanding.Foxy said:BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=190 -
I would expect the EU to accept the extension request to 31st Jan, with an acknowledgement that Brexit could occur earlier if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified and specifies an earlier date. In practice, though, an earlier date looks unlikely to me.
- If there's an early GE, that puts another few weeks delay into the mix and gets tangled up in Xmas, so it's reasonable to assume a new target date of midnight CET 31st Jan (which, helpfully, happens to be a Friday, leaving the weekend for any necessary administrative adjustments, and which is also not a very busy time for business). So a new Boris majority government, if we get one either just before or just after Xmas, would have to wrap things up in two or three weeks in January, which would be feasible.
- If there's no GE, the timings are probably not that different, because parliament as currently constituted is not going to rush to agree the deal now that an extension is (almost certainly) coming.
- If there's a GE which produces another hung parliament, then it's anyone's guess what eventually happens, but for sure we won't be leaving before 31st Jan.0 -
You have woken up each day since Saturday and said: "today's the day"?Gardenwalker said:I have expected there to be an election since Saturday
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I think we know what Boris actually meant but he does need to tighten up his language.Foxy said:BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=19
What happens if Parliament approves the deal but the Scot Parl refuse legislative consent?0 -
Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??0 -
Was that just before or just after you admitted being a hateful racist?Noo said:
Ah well, you shouldn't have started it the day before, should you?SunnyJim said:
After the personal abuse you were dishing out the other day I have no interest in interacting with you.Noo said:
Labour will bang on about non-Brexit policy. Could be interesting to see whether that's catnip for anyone.
I've long suspected that following an actual campaign, Labour could do rather better than expected if they tap into the same well of sentiment that Boris is tapping with the "get it done" narrative. Looks like we might soon find out.
Thanks.0 -
Legally Westminster can override Holyrood. Politically...a different kettle of fish...SunnyJim said:
I think we know what Boris actually meant but he does need to tighten up his language.Foxy said:BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=19
What happens if Parliament approves the deal but the Scot Parl refuse legislative consent?0 -
It would be a novel form of Confidence & Supply which obliges the DUP to vote No Confidence in the government!Stocky said:Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??1 -
I take Labour at their word that once an extension is legally secured they will back an election. I also think it's important we have an election soon because there's a budget that needs passing.Gardenwalker said:I have expected there to be an election since Saturday, and probably before then since it seemed likely that the Letwin amendment would be allowed, and passed.
By what mechanism I don’t know, I understand it’s not straightforward.
But there must surely be one.
Boris is doing well in the polls, it must be conceded. Whereas for the longest time I expected any election to simply return another minority government, I’d now expect Boris to achieve a majority.
While I think Labour will outperform current polling, let’s be honest - their only real hope is to depose Corbyn and “do a Jacinda Ardern”.
Perhaps that’s why Watson, Thornberry and Starmer are stuck in a railway carriage in Cricklewood (to continue a joke from the last thread).
I think Labour's best chance - and greatest risk - is that the election becomes a virtual referendum on Boris Johnson. If the electorate decide that they aren't sure about handing Johnson the quasi-dictatorial powers held by a PM with a substantial majority then they will find a way to prevent that, which will probably involve reluctantly voting Labour in large numbers.
It's also a risk, because a media fixation upon Johnson will drown out Labour's attempt to campaign on attractive vote-winning policies, and will grant Johnson control of the media narrative.0 -
Marquee_Mark said: "Labour's strategy (so far at is discernible by those not on Mount Olympus) appears to be to cause Boris delays in implementing Brexit, without actually killing it off. And that will cause the Brexit Party to flourish."
That`s spot on. We have a situation where Farage is, in effect, working for the benefit of the Labour Party and contrary to achieving an EU exit.0 -
Here's a strategy that 'sets' a real challenge to set theory -
https://twitter.com/UKAnglosphere/status/11868571053803356170 -
I didn't mean there is no difference in the unpleasantness of what they have been accused of.Philip_Thompson said:
No different?
Sorry Boris in his backstory supported murderers and invited them into the workplace of people whose colleagues and their loved ones were murdered days earlier?
I meant that it is common knowledge so people who would have been influenced already would have been.
If that makes any sense at all.0 -
Sure, it's his Archbishop of Lima speech, but as PM.noneoftheabove said:
His skill is in making people ignore (and indeed cheer) that he doesnt know what he is doing. At that he is outstanding.Foxy said:BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=19
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/my-boris-story/0 -
Really it's a view on the morphing of Macrons proposed reforms and the new direction these started to take in June with the tax cut and pension reform proposals. The macron of today is somewhat a different beast from the macron of 2017. Theres something very fundamental going on in France, the relative silence of the media over the gilets jaunes has masked it somewhat imo. I think the stance over Brexit might be the overt display but I may well be wrong. My expectation is a very short extension at macrons insistence, I think he wants Brexit to occur and will force the issue.williamglenn said:@dyedwoolie - If you see this, I'd be interested to hear more about your theory about Macron's journey.
If we get 3 months then I'm wrong and quite probably mistaken over Macrons journey too0 -
you may wish to use the edit button in the near future, pal.SunnyJim said:Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
There can't be too many potential voters who aren't aware of Corbyn's past so it's already 'baked in' to his polling. It is just a useful barb to throw every now and again.
No different really to references to Boris's colourful backstory which is well known.0 -
I think this is a bit lazy. Easy to lash out when you're angry, of course, but I'm not sure this is quite right.Stocky said:Marquee_Mark said: "Labour's strategy (so far at is discernible by those not on Mount Olympus) appears to be to cause Boris delays in implementing Brexit, without actually killing it off. And that will cause the Brexit Party to flourish."
That`s spot on. We have a situation where Farage is, in effect, working for the benefit of the Labour Party and contrary to achieving an EU exit.
I reckon Jeremy Corbyn DOES want a Brexit deal. He'd be quite happy to see the back of it and get on with talking about things that interest him (and most Labour supporters).0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
Stocky said:
"Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??"
"It would be a novel form of Confidence & Supply which obliges the DUP to vote No Confidence in the government!"
Yes Richard - I recognised this as I was typing my post - but what is the answer to my question? Despite the apparant irony would DUP be expected (obliged even) to vote in the manner that the government asked?0 -
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Legally Westminster can override Holyrood. Politically...a different kettle of fish...SunnyJim said:
I think we know what Boris actually meant but he does need to tighten up his language.Foxy said:BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=19
What happens if Parliament approves the deal but the Scot Parl refuse legislative consent?
Lasted until the Queen’s Speech I think although I’m prepared to be corrected on that.Stocky said:Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??0 -
(FPT)
That depends upon your starting assumptions.Pulpstar said:
I think your numbers are way off.Nigelb said:
A better way of putting it might have been If Parliament reflected the population, the probability of the composition of that group happening by chance would be around 1.5%..
The probability would actually be around 0.7%, but I was being generous to entrenched male privilege.
30.2 % probability for all 6 to be white.
0.4% probability for all 6 to be white males.
Given the lower age limit on MPs, one cannot assume 2019 demographics, though equally those applying in 2001 wouldn't be exactly correct either, given naturalised immigrants and deaths in the interim.
FWIW, I worked on a guesstimate 44% of the population for white British males, which would give around 0.7%.0 -
Before being too ready to elevate yourself on top of the moral high ground, perhaps punters should be reminded that you stated you'd be only too happy to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland if it produced Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Jeremy invited IRA into Parliament just days after MPs and their relatives were murdered.Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.0 -
1
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Dunno. I don't think there's any precedent for any of this. However, in practice I would expect the DUP to vote in what they perceive as their own interests, they won't be bound by any agreement.Stocky said:Richard_Nabavi said:
Stocky said:
"Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??"
"It would be a novel form of Confidence & Supply which obliges the DUP to vote No Confidence in the government!"
Yes Richard - I recognised this as I was typing my post - but what is the answer to my question? Despite the apparant irony would DUP be expected (obliged even) to vote in the manner that the government asked?0 -
Benpointer said:
3. Stop taking us for fools. We know you're playing politics.0 -
No I would not!Mysticrose said:
Before being too ready to elevate yourself on top of the moral high ground, perhaps punters should be reminded that you stated you'd be only too happy to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland if it produced Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Jeremy invited IRA into Parliament just days after MPs and their relatives were murdered.Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.
I always said I would not be "happy" to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland.0 -
His political genius lies in recognising that a large part of the populace empathises with that.noneoftheabove said:
His skill is in making people ignore (and indeed cheer) that he doesnt know what he is doing. At that he is outstanding.Foxy said:BoZo gets it wrong again. He really isn't very good is he?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1186969965079007235?s=190 -
Why?BannedInParis said:
you may wish to use the edit button in the near future, pal.
Boris's use of words like 'piccaninnies' is a matter of public record and well known to voters.
Those who would have been offended enough to switch their votes already would have done.
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Richard_Nabavi said: "Dunno. I don't think there's any precedent for any of this. However, in practice I would expect the DUP to vote in what they perceive as their own interests, they won't be bound by any agreement."
I don`t know either - but my vague understanding was that DUP agreed to support government is all aspects with the sole exception of Brexit.0 -
It is embarrassing to go through this process and have huge respect for Tusk and Barnier (but not Juncker), whereas May and Johnson, Davis and Raab have all been pisspoor.Benpointer said:0 -
If BoZo tries for an early election, might the opposition parties be disinclined to agree, given "It's Christmas, you muppet!" ?0
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Okay, you said you would be content (prepared) to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland if it produced Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
No I would not!Mysticrose said:
Before being too ready to elevate yourself on top of the moral high ground, perhaps punters should be reminded that you stated you'd be only too happy to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland if it produced Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Jeremy invited IRA into Parliament just days after MPs and their relatives were murdered.Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.
I always said I would not be "happy" to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland.
Which in my book means you have no right to start lecturing Jeremy Corbyn about being toxic.0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
I'm new around here..... [cough]Beibheirli_C said:
Hey! I do the countdown posts around here!!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:4th is still champs league
Bloomin' copy cats .......
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Boris did have a row with his girlfriend onceSunnyJim said:
I didn't mean there is no difference in the unpleasantness of what they have been accused of.Philip_Thompson said:
No different?
Sorry Boris in his backstory supported murderers and invited them into the workplace of people whose colleagues and their loved ones were murdered days earlier?
I meant that it is common knowledge so people who would have been influenced already would have been.
If that makes any sense at all.0 -
I used 0.819 (White) * 0.49 (Male) = 40.1% for white British males so I can see your logicNigelb said:(FPT)
That depends upon your starting assumptions.Pulpstar said:
I think your numbers are way off.Nigelb said:
A better way of putting it might have been If Parliament reflected the population, the probability of the composition of that group happening by chance would be around 1.5%..
The probability would actually be around 0.7%, but I was being generous to entrenched male privilege.
30.2 % probability for all 6 to be white.
0.4% probability for all 6 to be white males.
Given the lower age limit on MPs, one cannot assume 2019 demographics, though equally those applying in 2001 wouldn't be exactly correct either, given naturalised immigrants and deaths in the interim.
FWIW, I worked on a guesstimate 44% of the population for white British males, which would give around 0.7%.
1.5% for all males.
30.2% all white.
Ok Gotcha 0 -
"...for the duration of this Parliament."DougSeal said:
Lasted until the Queen’s Speech I think although I’m prepared to be corrected on that.Stocky said:Re GE: by my maths the Tories + SNP does not quite get to 50% + 1 to trigger a GE. Seems unclear what LibDems want.
Does anyone know whether the confidence and supply agreement holds with DUP and, if so, will they be obliged to side with SNP and Tories to tip the scales??0 -
My bets on no GE until 2020 are looking bloody dodgy.0
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Jo Swinson, with a straight face, says that Labour are helping the Tories.
Let she who is without sin, etc.1 -
Varadkar has stated there is not yet agreement for a flextension to Jan 31 and it's not guaranteed the UK could stay in a CU, we would need to negotiate it
He expects an emergency council Friday or monday if no unanimity by then0 -
No, what I actually said is I would be upset [not content, not prepared, not happy] to see the troubles return but that I value our democracy and freedom over avoiding the threat of a return to the troubles. I also said that if the Troubles did return then any murders or terrorism etc would be the fault of any murders or terrorists.Mysticrose said:
Okay, you said you would be content (prepared) to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland if it produced Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
No I would not!Mysticrose said:
Before being too ready to elevate yourself on top of the moral high ground, perhaps punters should be reminded that you stated you'd be only too happy to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland if it produced Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Jeremy invited IRA into Parliament just days after MPs and their relatives were murdered.Gardenwalker said:Boris is right.
Jeremy *was* an IRA supporter, and condemned by the Guardian at the time for being so.
Jeremy is not really fit to be an MP, let alone LOTO.
Its a disgrace Labour never expelled him let alone let him anywhere near power. It'd be like an MP now choosing to invite the people smugglers who are responsible for the lorry full of dead bodies into Parliament.
I always said I would not be "happy" to see the troubles return to Northern Ireland.
Which in my book means you have no right to start lecturing Jeremy Corbyn about being toxic.
Corbyn is another kettle of fish, he decided to support the terrorists days after they'd murdered colleages of his. So yes I have every right.
If far right terrorists said we need to expel all minorities and halt immigration or they'd start a bombing campaign would you support them?
If Islamic terrorists said we need to expel all Jews and cover up our women and ban women from driving or voting or leaving the house without a man or they'd start a bombing campaign would you support them?
Are you prepared to sacrifice our freedoms and democracy to avoid the threat of terrorism? Because if you're not, you're the same as me.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: interesting but limited Twitch stream deal for Mexico:
https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/11869805908532019210 -
Never have I been so glad to have not been betting on timings or existence of General Election and/or Referendum etc.
I have zero clue. Zero.1 -
After being shafted on the deal, the DUP will do whatever the DUP want, and to hell with the government and the S&C deal.Stocky said:Richard_Nabavi said: "Dunno. I don't think there's any precedent for any of this. However, in practice I would expect the DUP to vote in what they perceive as their own interests, they won't be bound by any agreement."
I don`t know either - but my vague understanding was that DUP agreed to support government is all aspects with the sole exception of Brexit.0 -
"I saw three battlebuses come rolling inScott_P said:
On Christmas Day in the morning"1 -
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To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?0
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Corbyn could have better prepared himself for Johnson's IRA remarks.There was always a high probability that at some point he would say something like that. He should have responded with ' We all know that the PM has a compulsive aversion to telling the truth - and the evidence is overwhelming that he is a lower form of life!'.0
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Alistair said: " Never have I been so glad to have not been betting on timings or existence of General Election and/or Referendum etc.
I have zero clue. Zero."
Thanks for the help mate0 -
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That would be a tough rule for politicians...SandyRentool said:Jo Swinson, with a straight face, says that Labour are helping the Tories.
Let she who is without sin, etc.
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Amend FTPA with a simple majorityGardenwalker said:To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?
0 -
Or make time for the SNP to table on 50%+1.Gardenwalker said:To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?
0 -
Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0 -
VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street.Stocky said:Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0 -
And successfully defeat any amendments to disenfranchise everyone over 65, etc...Noo said:
Amend FTPA with a simple majorityGardenwalker said:To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?
1 -
"journalists' use of No 10 sources". And vice versa, of course.Scott_P said:0 -
FPT
Discussion about electric cars, I came across this:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/honda-brings-forward-electrification-deadline-to-2022/ar-AAJdNjY?ocid=spartanntp
The commitment means every volume Honda model sold will use either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or fully electric drive.
All mainstream non-electrified petrol and diesel versions will cease production for Europe by the end of 2022.0 -
But the Labour leadership have been the Tories` little helpers ever since the referendum.Nigelb said:
That would be a tough rule for politicians...SandyRentool said:Jo Swinson, with a straight face, says that Labour are helping the Tories.
Let she who is without sin, etc.
Had it escaped your notice?0 -
Yes, though less risk imo of that being an issue than some people think.Nigelb said:
And successfully defeat any amendments to disenfranchise everyone over 65, etc...Noo said:
Amend FTPA with a simple majorityGardenwalker said:To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?
Would personally love it if they gave the vote to EU citizens but I don't see it happening really.0 -
They're going to install remote Mario Kart style controls ?Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: interesting but limited Twitch stream deal for Mexico:
https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/11869805908532019210 -
According to Oddschecker there is an arb intra-Betfair of chances of a VONC:
Betfair Sportsbook 6/5 no VONC
Betfair Exchange 5/4 yes VONC0 -
Tory Swinson won't allow that.Noo said:
VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street.Stocky said:Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0 -
Good news!philiph said:FPT
Discussion about electric cars, I came across this:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/honda-brings-forward-electrification-deadline-to-2022/ar-AAJdNjY?ocid=spartanntp
The commitment means every volume Honda model sold will use either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or fully electric drive.
All mainstream non-electrified petrol and diesel versions will cease production for Europe by the end of 2022.0 -
Are there huge swathes of people who get really worked up about this? 16 or 18 are arbitrary numbers. It needs to be a number somewhere around there but neither is particularly better than the other (nor are 17, 19, 20, 21).SunnyJim said:
The Tories would love opposition amendments to include votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.Nigelb said:
And successfully defeat any amendments to disenfranchise everyone over 65, etc...
The GE campaign slogans would write themselves.
I cant imagine it trumps brexit, nhs, jobs, austerity, business etc.0 -
Noo said: "VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street."
Yep0 -
What, not yet unanimity? Surely somebody can't be holding out on not extending further....?dyedwoolie said:Varadkar has stated there is not yet agreement for a flextension to Jan 31 and it's not guaranteed the UK could stay in a CU, we would need to negotiate it
He expects an emergency council Friday or monday if no unanimity by then
EDIT: if they are, you might want a bit of that 3.7% chance of Brexit by the 31st on Betfair....0 -
For what it's worth, I think Labour are leading the Conservatives up the garden path about an early election. If the Conservatives are going to get one, they'll need the help of the SNP and/or the Lib Dems.
I'm not convinced the Conservatives really want one either, mind. All the parties resemble drunken youths arguing outside a nightclub, spoiling for a fight and asking their friends to hold them back.3 -
In ordinary circumstances. But there are emergency scenarios she would allow it for a limited period of time.Pulpstar said:
Tory Swinson won't allow that.Noo said:
VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street.Stocky said:Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0 -
More to the point the real Conservatives (Clarke, Hammond et al) are very unlikely to support any other administration now the risk of no deal is low. There commitment has always been to do whatever is necessary to stop no deal, but probably nothing beyond that.Pulpstar said:
Tory Swinson won't allow that.Noo said:
VONC doesn't automatically lead to an election. Could put Corbyn in Downing Street.Stocky said:Gardenwalker said:
"To get an election, doesn’t Boris need either to VONC himself (hard) or get 2/3 parliament support (harder)?"
Yes, unless Corbyn tables a VONC. Or there could be a simple bill which would circumvent FTPA but could be amended (so is dangerous).0
