politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach diff
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Deal passed. He has a legacy and can be known as a guy who gets things done. Deal rejected leaves him open to a lot of lines of attack regarding October 31st, and given voters have trust issues with him doubts will emerge about his ability to deliver Brexit,kinabalu said:
That's my take too. He's playing a blinder politically.TOPPING said:Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
But my question is which IYO is BETTER for his in any case good GE prospects? -
(i) Deal passed - GE.
(ii) Deal rejected - GE.0 -
Isn't it just.DougSeal said:The rapidity with which the Tories on here are celebrating throwing the DUP under a bus when only last week they were saying that their voice had to be respected at all costs is a sight to behold.
Also this -
Of course under May's deal we would have got frictionless access to the SM for the whole of the UK. Now these bozos are celebrating not having such access.Very revealing.....Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”
— Rob Merrick (@Rob_Merrick) October 18, 2019
That’s EXACTLY why the rest of the UK will be left poorer, of course0 -
Why do you keep presenting this as a change in opinion of the people of Scotland?HYUFD said:
Wrong, Scots now want to see Brexit delivered and will be grateful No Deal has been avoided.kinabalu said:
I would say this is better because it gives more freedom for GB to diverge in the future. Whether that is 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit depends on the complexion of the UK government negotiating - and then managing - the Future Relationship, which in turn depends on GE outcomes. I think that is eminently reasonable.Pulpstar said:I think May's deal was better as it was closer to remaining (Whilst still satisfying the vote) - but this one will do.
If I was a strong unionist, however, I would be extremely unhappy because this Deal breaks it up. As sure as eggs is eggs, we see an independent Scotland and a reunified Ireland within a few short years.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184399764168859648?s=200 -
You've got to love 'em! I wonder if NI will soon become the boom province of the UK, with the rest of us, looking up from our stodgy dinner of 'temperate climate' vegetables, to view them with envious eyes.148grss said:0 -
From the EU’s point of view, the deal is a vast improvement, as it takes away the possibility of our staying in the CU and single market indefinitely without having to pay for the privilege.148grss said:
From our point of view, it is significantly worse economically, as the DexEU’s own analysis confirms.
From Boris Johnson’s POV, it is, of course, a triumph. Which we will pay for.0 -
Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?0
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Relief yes certainly. Appreciation not so much. They will do what they can to get the deal through parliament, which is support the PM, talk up the deal as a grand compromise and make extension look unlikely.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is there not just a little part of you that may see that the EU leaders appreciation shown yesterday was tinged with relief they had achieved a deal against the oddsnoneoftheabove said:
I doubt very much it is genuine. It is theatre to help the deal pass - the right thing to do from their perspective. Revealing their genuine thoughts on our PM may not be very productive.Big_G_NorthWales said:No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
Maybe I am too cynical but I think they actually dislike the PM, see the deal as an EU win, and would extend if needed.0 -
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Momentum are going to go after any Labour MP who votes for the deal .
The gloves are off .0 -
Go go National Labourwilliamglenn said:0 -
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Are you really saying there were "decades of civil war and terrorism [Northern] Ireland...during the Troubles"?You mean there was civil discord there? I find that hard to believe.HYUFD said:
Strengthened ties between North and South is a good thing as it avoids the decades of civil war and terrorism Ireland had during the Troubles which my visit brought home to me again and which you have ignored.TOPPING said:
You are displaying your ignorance again. While I appreciate you have just spent a week on the North Antrim coast (drinking plenty of Bushmills I hope) sadly your understanding of the geopolitics of Ireland remains lacking.HYUFD said:
No it is not, it may loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification.TOPPING said:
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).HYUFD said:3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
As the poll shows fewer Northern Irish voters favour unification without a hard border
Let's try to use your own words to see if that might help you to understand. We should focus on the following: "loosen ties between GB and NI". Do you therefore think that aligning NI with the RoI would strengthen the ties between NI and RoI? Do you think strengthening such ties could be seen as a move to further strengthening as and when those two territories together further separate from Great Britain?
However you can have strengthened ties and no hard border and still see NI technically part of the UK
As for your final point I am also glad that you accept NI will henceforth only be part of the UK on a technicality.0 -
It's a big win for Varadkar as is the change to the consent provisions. Interesting to note that last week he was musing about changing the consent provisions in the GFA.Peter_the_Punter said:
Absolutely correct, and one of the more heartening aspects of the Deal.TOPPING said:
You have no idea about what would or wouldn't have transpired with a hard border. You just don't have that type of contextual knowledge.HYUFD said:
The fastest route to a United Ireland would have been a hard border in Ireland between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Boris avoided that and preserved the Good Friday AgreementTOPPING said:
Whereas now they have a unified entity on the island of Ireland which has a different regulatory regime to that of Great Britain. It is all the nationalists could have hoped for. Boris doing their work to edge towards a united Ireland.HYUFD said:
The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)algarkirk said:On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.
@MarqueeMark pls note also wrt Boris the Unionist. Unionists don't carve out bits of their Union to let it align with a foreign power (to use the vernacular).
I have said for years on here that there would be no hard border and I would be amazed if you haven't at some point told me I was wrong, along with others on here.
But what is unalterably the case is that Boris' deal, by hiving off NI and allowing it to align with the RoI, brings unification closer and all with the official sanction of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Ireland now sees a way in which over time it will be reunited as one. It has played a blinder.0 -
I get the point that the opposition won’t want a quick election, but we still have a vote on the QS and a Budget to come. 6 Nov Budget defeat presumably still implies a late Jan/Feb election at the earliest given the time for a separate VONC and the need to pass some sort of Finance Bill though.
I’m assuming defeats because the DUP will be gone, but then maybe they can still be bought off for a Budget and so can enough independents.0 -
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That threat would work better were they not already replacing moderate candidates with socialist ones.williamglenn said:0 -
Talk about never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.williamglenn said:
The DUP can't be looking forward to an election either.TOPPING said:
Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.kinabalu said:
And thus BoJo wants it to fail IYO?TOPPING said:If the deal fails it won't lead to no Brexit it will lead to a GE and a huge Cons majority and then Brexit.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.0 -
Mike said: "Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?"
Well those that wanted Brexit (not me ) wanted an end to EU free movement, control of other sovereignty matters and to have ability to do trade deals worldwide. And save the cash that we send to EU.0 -
May's deal had the transition period too. Any sensible deal would have a transition period.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
If its better for them than May's deal then that's good because its better for us than May's deal too. Any good deal should be a win/win as its not zero-sum. Good job MPs voted down May's Crap Deal then isn't it in hindsight? Those of us who consistently opposed the deal were right to do so.1 -
If and only if such a Brexit on the 31st would be no deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As long as it is not designed to stop brexit on the 31st I am happy with itNigelb said:
The Letwin amendment is nothing to do with any intention to stonewall.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to have ignored the comments coming out of the EU this morning.nico67 said:
Not really , it’s just insurance to get the legislation through . They only agreed to rush things through to help Johnson but you should note Guy V , he said the EU parliament will only start the process of ratification once the legislation has passed in the UK .Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.nico67 said:
If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.dyedwoolie said:Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
The Commission via Juncker has said it will pass in time for the 31st leaving date
There will not be a delay for continuing stonewalling.
The only delay would be if a GE was required
Letwin backs, and will vote for Boris’s deal. The amendment is designed to give reassurance to reluctant backers of the deal that having voted for it, no one can game the system to stall enabling legislation between now and the end of the month in order to force a no deal Brexit.
I am pretty sure that the EU would be of the same mind.
It contemplates the possible requirement of an extra week or so for legislative holdups after the vote in favour of Boris Brexit is passed.
Letwin was eminently clear about this when interviewed this morning.0 -
Quite interesting watching Sky that most of the guests are people desperately preaching about “worse deal than May’s”.
None of the key group of voting MPs are gonna make their mind up from watching The Kay Burley Show. Lots of expectations management going on from the Remain side of the debate to the public. Meanwhile the Leavers seem to be talking behind closed doors.0 -
You buy a short in your case by buying a GBP/USD put option if your financial institution allows it or you can go onto IG Index and take a bet of GBP/USD in the direction you want (I did when I thought MV3 would pass and it would send GBP sharply higher).viewcode said:Ok, quick roundup
@Cyclefree, thank you for the response, but I wanted an answer.
@moonshine : I still don't know how to buy a short. I now know EFT is electronic find transfer, but I don't know how to dbuy a short one.
@Balrog : thank you again about the TransferWise suggestion (was it you?)
@isam: did you see my question last night about the value of NoDeal?0 -
In your opinion. Not in mine.Philip_Thompson said:
May's deal had the transition period too. Any sensible deal would have a transition period.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
If its better for them than May's deal then that's good because its better for us than May's deal too. Any good deal should be a win/win as its not zero-sum. Good job MPs voted down May's Crap Deal then isn't it in hindsight? Those of us who consistently opposed the deal were right to do so.0 -
If Johnson is forced to resign in those circumstances it will be instantly and I'd have thought the Cabinet would choose one from around the table - Gove quite possibly, or Javid, or Raab.Benpointer said:Here's a scenario...
- Boris's Deal scrapes through and we leave on 31 October.
- Jezza agrees to a December 12th election cos he's got nowhere to hide.
- Arcuri scandal blows up mid-campaign and Boris forced to resign.
- Tories turn to Hunt who wins narrow majority.
Fun scenario. Distracts from the avalanche about to bury anti-Johnson voters.0 -
Sounds sensible enough. Letwin has always been in favour of a deal, unlike other anti No-Dealers.Nigelb said:
If and only if such a Brexit on the 31st would be no deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As long as it is not designed to stop brexit on the 31st I am happy with itNigelb said:
The Letwin amendment is nothing to do with any intention to stonewall.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to have ignored the comments coming out of the EU this morning.nico67 said:
Not really , it’s just insurance to get the legislation through . They only agreed to rush things through to help Johnson but you should note Guy V , he said the EU parliament will only start the process of ratification once the legislation has passed in the UK .Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.nico67 said:
If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.dyedwoolie said:Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
The Commission via Juncker has said it will pass in time for the 31st leaving date
There will not be a delay for continuing stonewalling.
The only delay would be if a GE was required
Letwin backs, and will vote for Boris’s deal. The amendment is designed to give reassurance to reluctant backers of the deal that having voted for it, no one can game the system to stall enabling legislation between now and the end of the month in order to force a no deal Brexit.
I am pretty sure that the EU would be of the same mind.
It contemplates the possible requirement of an extra week or so for legislative holdups after the vote in favour of Boris Brexit is passed.
Letwin was eminently clear about this when interviewed this morning.0 -
And a good deal for NICyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.0 -
Now is the time. No more vacillating.dyedwoolie said:
Go go National Labourwilliamglenn said:0 -
I did see it... It seems the vote on Saturday (?) is going to be deal or no deal. "A meaningful vote to pass in 2019" is a 55% chance on Betfair, so the obvious conclusion is the other side, No Deal, is value at 7.6viewcode said:Ok, quick roundup
@Cyclefree, thank you for the response, but I wanted an answer.
@moonshine : I still don't know how to buy a short. I now know EFT is electronic find transfer, but I don't know how to dbuy a short one.
@Balrog : thank you again about the TransferWise suggestion (was it you?)
@isam: did you see my question last night about the value of NoDeal?
But I guess there will be some kind of shenanigans to not let No Deal happen? On the face of it, if No Deal was the outcome and we hadn't backed the 6/1+ we'd feel pretty silly from a betting perspective0 -
I did once consider going to NI for my PhD; sounds like could be a good idea now...Nigelb said:
From the EU’s point of view, the deal is a vast improvement, as it takes away the possibility of our staying in the CU and single market indefinitely without having to pay for the privilege.148grss said:
From our point of view, it is significantly worse economically, as the DexEU’s own analysis confirms.
From Boris Johnson’s POV, it is, of course, a triumph. Which we will pay for.0 -
Why wouldn't it be genune? He has given them everything they wanted. His genius is to ensure that does not matter to the Conservative Party and to most BXP supporters. The EU gave Theresa May a worse deal from their perspective and she could not sell it to the same people. Johnson has done brilliantly.noneoftheabove said:
I doubt very much it is genuine. It is theatre to help the deal pass - the right thing to do from their perspective. Revealing their genuine thoughts on our PM may not be very productive.Big_G_NorthWales said:No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
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That is grossly unfair.CarlottaVance said:Says it all.......
https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1185110274858258433?s=20
A spiv understands how markets work.0 -
I watched the interview and though I don't think Bridgen is a good ambassador for Brexit what this tweet suggests was IMO all in the tweeter's mind.Stark_Dawning said:
You've got to love 'em! I wonder if NI will soon become the boom province of the UK, with the rest of us, looking up from our stodgy dinner of 'temperate climate' vegetables, to view them with envious eyes.148grss said:0 -
I have no problem with Labour MPs who truly believe this deal is in the national interest and vote for it .
Just as the 21 Tory rebels risked their jobs to stop a no deal , it’s rather hypocritical for people to support them but then trash Labour MPs who decide on principal to vote for the deal .
However I expect things to turn ugly for those Labour MPs who are likely to be deselected.0 -
Not sure Lansman is a member of the inner leadership team any more.Fenster said:
I think the Labour leadership want it to go through. They just want to portray themselves as against it.nico67 said:Momentum are going to go after any Labour MP who votes for the deal .
The gloves are off .
He was sent to virtual Siberia over the muddled attempt to ditch Watson.0 -
Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?0
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As in Mrs May did not understand politics.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Which country are you asking about? UK or Russia?Pulpstar said:Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?
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Arise Lord Barron & Lady Flint !nico67 said:I have no problem with Labour MPs who truly believe this deal is in the national interest and vote for it .
Just as the 21 Tory rebels risked their jobs to stop a no deal , it’s rather hypocritical for people to support them but then trash Labour MPs who decide on principal to vote for the deal .
However I expect things to turn ugly for those Labour MPs who are likely to be deselected.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
There is I'm afraid a level of naivety going on. This deal is a very good one for the EU. Boris impaled himself on his date pledge and has been forced to do everything he said he was not going to do. The EU has ended up with pretty much what they initially offered, a weakened Britain and a very clear understanding of the vanities of the British political class and how poor it is at negotiating, something which will no doubt stand the EU (and other countries) in good stead in the negotiations to come.
It is better than No Deal. So I hope it passes. But let's not kid ourselves that this is some kind of marvellous outcome. It is the least worst outcome given the way the government has conducted itself since the result. It could have been so much better. But we are where we are.
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If my own circumstances allowed, I’d be seriously tempted too.148grss said:
I did once consider going to NI for my PhD; sounds like could be a good idea now...Nigelb said:
From the EU’s point of view, the deal is a vast improvement, as it takes away the possibility of our staying in the CU and single market indefinitely without having to pay for the privilege.148grss said:
From our point of view, it is significantly worse economically, as the DexEU’s own analysis confirms.
From Boris Johnson’s POV, it is, of course, a triumph. Which we will pay for.0 -
You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?HYUFD said:
Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.Philip_Thompson said:
You're mad as a box of frogs.HYUFD said:
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its willDougSeal said:
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.HYUFD said:
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unificationTOPPING said:
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).HYUFD said:3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?0 -
Be amusing if the act of Brexit united the Tories and destroyed labourPulpstar said:Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?
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Agreed.Cyclefree said:Big_G_NorthWales said:No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
There is I'm afraid a level of naivety going on. This deal is a very good one for the EU. Boris impaled himself on his date pledge and has been forced to do everything he said he was not going to do. The EU has ended up with pretty much what they initially offered, a weakened Britain and a very clear understanding of the vanities of the British political class and how poor it is at negotiating, something which will no doubt stand the EU (and other countries) in good stead in the negotiations to come.
It is better than No Deal. So I hope it passes. But let's not kid ourselves that this is some kind of marvellous outcome. It is the least worst outcome given the way the government has conducted itself since the result. It could have been so much better. But we are where we are.0 -
Of course under May's deal we would have got frictionless access to the SM for the whole of the UK. Now these bozos are celebrating not having such access.Cyclefree said:
Isn't it just.DougSeal said:The rapidity with which the Tories on here are celebrating throwing the DUP under a bus when only last week they were saying that their voice had to be respected at all costs is a sight to behold.
Also this -Very revealing.....Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”
— Rob Merrick (@Rob_Merrick) October 18, 2019
That’s EXACTLY why the rest of the UK will be left poorer, of course
Because we're seeking to take back control over our laws. That was the binary choice in the referendum.0 -
We'll be able to stop foreigners coming over here. Plus work 65 hour weeks.MikeSmithson said:Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?
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Owning the remainers.MikeSmithson said:Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?
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Oh jeez a remainer doesn't find leaving to be good? What a shocker! I am so surprised by that shocking revelation!Nigelb said:
In your opinion. Not in mine.Philip_Thompson said:
May's deal had the transition period too. Any sensible deal would have a transition period.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
If its better for them than May's deal then that's good because its better for us than May's deal too. Any good deal should be a win/win as its not zero-sum. Good job MPs voted down May's Crap Deal then isn't it in hindsight? Those of us who consistently opposed the deal were right to do so.0 -
Robinson is now establishment and no longer even an MP and had to resign as First Minister after a scandal with Arlene Foster replacing him.williamglenn said:
That would be the same Peter Robinson who said last year that unionists should start contemplating unification and that "as soon as that decision is taken every democrat will have to accept that decision"?HYUFD said:
Oh it does, indeed Peter Robinson from the DUP was even in discussions with loyalist paramilitaries about declaring UDI over the Anglo Irish AgreementDougSeal said:
You keep saying that but that doesn’t make it true.HYUFD said:
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather thsn be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its willDougSeal said:
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.HYUFD said:
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unificationTOPPING said:
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you hat is a step towards unification.HYUFD said:3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
http://www.irishnews.com/paywall/tsb/irishnews/irishnews/irishnews//news/2016/12/30/news/british-believed-peter-robinson-plotting-to-declare-independent-state--856630/content.html
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-should-prepare-for-united-ireland-possibility-ex-dup-leader-1.3578620
However from my trip to Northern Ireland I was astonished by the differences between County Antrim in the North, with Northern Irish and Union flags everywhere and a much harder accent and County Fermanagh where you barely noticed any difference between there and Counties Sligo and Donegal in the Republic which I also visited.
In Antrim too there were posters accusing the Government of betraying the paras to the IRA etc.
Antrim has its own culture and identity and will not go into the Republic of Ireland against its will whatever the other Northern Ireland counties decide0 -
No, you didn't. You specifically argued that the majority should not be able to override the minority in cases whe it came to denying them the ability to vote on the laws that they were subject to. If I knew how to do it I would search a few of your choicer quotes out, but I don't! However, we both know what you said. You have changed your mind, though, and that is a good thing. Your previous position was ridiculous.Philip_Thompson said:
I never vociferously argued against any mechanism that that did not give the DUP a veto! I vociferously argued against any deal that would not let voters in NI unilaterally exit the arrangements. I said NI's voters consent was paramount and it could not be permanently stripped by a simple majority, consent would have to be ongoing.SouthamObserver said:
To think it was only a couple of weeks ago that you were vociferously arguing against any mechanism that did not give the DUP a veto. It was, you said, your firmly held conviction that their consent had to be paramount. Would you allow slavery if a majority voted for it, you asked. Should a majority be allowed to remove the right to vote from women? I am glad to see you have changed your mind. This is a very good deal for Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
What is different between this deal and the prior one is it requires ongoing consent from Belfast. NI's voters will retain the right to regularly vote for Stormont and if they ever vote a majority on a pledge to exit these arrangements then that simple majority will be able to enact the mandate given to them. That is the difference, that is acceptable.
This arrangement continues so long as a simple majority wish it too and for so long as NI's voters elect a simple majority wanting it to continue - the minority haven't lost their rights they've just lost the election, I'm OK with minorities losing elections, I'm not OK with them not having the elections in the first place.
0 -
Deal passed - GE is undoubtedly better because then he's got the whole man of my word, I say, I deliver schtick going for him. Plus no one in their right mind would want to revisit Br*x*t as it would to all intents and purposes have been sorted and the other parties would want to plunge us back into the maelstrom.kinabalu said:
That's my take too. He's playing a blinder politically.TOPPING said:Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
But my question is which IYO is BETTER for his in any case good GE prospects? -
(i) Deal passed - GE.
(ii) Deal rejected - GE.0 -
The minority will have the right to vote though. If the minority becomes a majority and votes to leave these arrangements then they leave these arrangements. That wasn't the case previously.SouthamObserver said:
No, you didn't. You specifically argued that the majority should not be able to override the minority in cases whe it came to denying them the ability to vote on the laws that they were subject to. If I knew how to do it I would search a few of your choicer quotes out, but I don't! However, we both know what you said. You have changed your mind, though, and that is a good thing. Your previous position was ridiculous.Philip_Thompson said:
I never vociferously argued against any mechanism that that did not give the DUP a veto! I vociferously argued against any deal that would not let voters in NI unilaterally exit the arrangements. I said NI's voters consent was paramount and it could not be permanently stripped by a simple majority, consent would have to be ongoing.SouthamObserver said:
To think it was only a couple of weeks ago that you were vociferously arguing against any mechanism that did not give the DUP a veto. It was, you said, your firmly held conviction that their consent had to be paramount. Would you allow slavery if a majority voted for it, you asked. Should a majority be allowed to remove the right to vote from women? I am glad to see you have changed your mind. This is a very good deal for Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
What is different between this deal and the prior one is it requires ongoing consent from Belfast. NI's voters will retain the right to regularly vote for Stormont and if they ever vote a majority on a pledge to exit these arrangements then that simple majority will be able to enact the mandate given to them. That is the difference, that is acceptable.
This arrangement continues so long as a simple majority wish it too and for so long as NI's voters elect a simple majority wanting it to continue - the minority haven't lost their rights they've just lost the election, I'm OK with minorities losing elections, I'm not OK with them not having the elections in the first place.
If the majority vote to continue these arrangements then they roll over for a time limited period and the minority retain their right to vote at the next scheduled election where they can again vote to change it. That meets my concern.0 -
I see you have retained your sense of humour, Mike.MikeSmithson said:Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?
0 -
Yes, I see what you mean. Under May's deal, the backstop meant that the EU could be forced to allow the UK to continue to benefit from membership of the Single Market indefinitely. Under Boris's deal though, Britain (though not NI) will automatically fall out of the SM at the end of the transition period, thus giving considerable leverage to the EU in the upcoming negotiations. You can see why they are so pleased with the deal!Benpointer said:
... much better than May's deal which had a terrible backstop for them.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.0 -
@Benpointer
Yes, Ref2 is Remain's last stand here. Don't see it myself - never have - but I agree still a chance.
@Brom
OK, so if Johnsons' GE prospects are better with Deal passing than it being rejected, that blows up my theory that Labour would quite like to see it pass.
But I stick to my prediction - it passes by 10.0 -
El Classico off.0
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They will not have the right to vote on the body makig the laws that will apply to them. This was your very firm red line. It turned out to be as firm as Johnson's. I am delighted to welcome two repenting sinners to the fold!!Philip_Thompson said:
The minority will have the right to vote though. If the minority becomes a majority and votes to leave these arrangements then they leave these arrangements. That wasn't the case previously.SouthamObserver said:
No, you didn't. You specifically argued that the majority should not be able to override the minority in cases whe it came to denying them the ability to vote on the laws that they were subject to. If I knew how to do it I would search a few of your choicer quotes out, but I don't! However, we both know what you said. You have changed your mind, though, and that is a good thing. Your previous position was ridiculous.Philip_Thompson said:
I never vconsent would have to be ongoing.SouthamObserver said:
To think it was only a couple of weeks ago that you were vociferously arguing against any mechanism that did not give the DUP a veto. It was, you said, your firmly held conviction that their consent had to be paramount. Would you allow slavery if a majority voted for it, you asked. Should a majority be allowed to remove the right to vote from women? I am glad to see you have changed your mind. This is a very good deal for Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
What is different between this deal and the prior one is it requires ongoing consent from Belfast. NI's voters will retain the right to regularly vote for Stormont and if they ever vote a majority on a pledge to exit these arrangements then that simple majority will be able to enact the mandate given to them. That is the difference, that is acceptable.
This in the first place.
0 -
Plenty of lab voters supported Boris in the mayoral elections in 08 and 12MarqueeMark said:
"Been Labour all my life. But never again.DougSeal said:
If someone who tells you they are a Socialist is voting Tory then they are lying in one of two ways. Both statements cannot be true.MarqueeMark said:
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.
I like your Boris."
You saying I've never heard this on the doorsteps? OK, suit yourself.....0 -
Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.
Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.
In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.
And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.0 -
Getting a deal was not some masterclass of negotiation.CarlottaVance said:
If we knew Boris was prepared to ditch his opposition to a border down the Irish Sea then I think even the dullest person on here would have predicted a deal being done in short order.1 -
tbf it's the least worst outcome given that the public voted for Brexit.Cyclefree said:Big_G_NorthWales said:No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
There is I'm afraid a level of naivety going on. This deal is a very good one for the EU. Boris impaled himself on his date pledge and has been forced to do everything he said he was not going to do. The EU has ended up with pretty much what they initially offered, a weakened Britain and a very clear understanding of the vanities of the British political class and how poor it is at negotiating, something which will no doubt stand the EU (and other countries) in good stead in the negotiations to come.
It is better than No Deal. So I hope it passes. But let's not kid ourselves that this is some kind of marvellous outcome. It is the least worst outcome given the way the government has conducted itself since the result. It could have been so much better. But we are where we are.
0 -
He is deluded and confusedAlistair said:
Why do you keep presenting this as a change in opinion of the people of Scotland?HYUFD said:
Wrong, Scots now want to see Brexit delivered and will be grateful No Deal has been avoided.kinabalu said:
I would say this is better because it gives more freedom for GB to diverge in the future. Whether that is 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit depends on the complexion of the UK government negotiating - and then managing - the Future Relationship, which in turn depends on GE outcomes. I think that is eminently reasonable.Pulpstar said:I think May's deal was better as it was closer to remaining (Whilst still satisfying the vote) - but this one will do.
If I was a strong unionist, however, I would be extremely unhappy because this Deal breaks it up. As sure as eggs is eggs, we see an independent Scotland and a reunified Ireland within a few short years.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184399764168859648?s=200 -
I don't think you can accuse the Labour leadership of prioritising the party interest - their priority is considerably narrower than that.Pulpstar said:Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?
0 -
I actually agree with you.Cyclefree said:Big_G_NorthWales said:No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
There is I'm afraid a level of naivety going on. This deal is a very good one for the EU. Boris impaled himself on his date pledge and has been forced to do everything he said he was not going to do. The EU has ended up with pretty much what they initially offered, a weakened Britain and a very clear understanding of the vanities of the British political class and how poor it is at negotiating, something which will no doubt stand the EU (and other countries) in good stead in the negotiations to come.
It is better than No Deal. So I hope it passes. But let's not kid ourselves that this is some kind of marvellous outcome. It is the least worst outcome given the way the government has conducted itself since the result. It could have been so much better. But we are where we are.
Remaining in the EU would be the best decision but I just cannot contemplate overturning the referendum and this deal is good for NI and does honour the vote
How a new trade deal pans out is for the future but the transistion the deal brings gives our businesses a breathing space and also allows the EU to move on
So for me I hope it goes through, but irrespective of that, I think Boris has a winning chance in any election no matter what happens tomorrow0 -
As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.rottenborough said:
As in Mrs May did not understand politics.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It isn't better for us than May's deal for the reasons I posted in my header yesterday.Philip_Thompson said:
May's deal had the transition period too. Any sensible deal would have a transition period.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
If its better for them than May's deal then that's good because its better for us than May's deal too. Any good deal should be a win/win as its not zero-sum. Good job MPs voted down May's Crap Deal then isn't it in hindsight? Those of us who consistently opposed the deal were right to do so.
There is a cliff edge at the end of the transition period in this deal which there wasn't in May's deal. So it is Boris's version of can kicking.
It is certainly better than No Deal.0 -
Such complications are but one of the many reasons you and I voted Remain.HYUFD said:Robinson is now establishment and no longer even an MP and had to resign as First Minister after a scandal with Arlene Foster replacing him.
However from my trip to Northern Ireland I was astonished by the differences between County Antrim in the North, with Northern Irish and Union flags everywhere and a much harder accent and County Fermanagh where you barely noticed any difference between there and Counties Sligo and Donegal in the Republic which I also visited.
In Antrim too there were posters accusing the Government of betraying the paras to the IRA etc.
Antrim has its own culture and identity and will not go into the Republic of Ireland against its will whatever the other Northern Ireland counties decide1 -
Thwere is no point in arguing this. It is utterly absurd and everyone can see that - even HYUFD!!Philip_Thompson said:
You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?HYUFD said:
Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.Philip_Thompson said:
You're mad as a box of frogs.HYUFD said:
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its willDougSeal said:
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.HYUFD said:
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unificationTOPPING said:
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).HYUFD said:3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me unification.
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
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Clueless as ever - I was saying May’s deal (which I reluctantly accepted) was better than this one - which I nonetheless accept.Philip_Thompson said:
Oh jeez a remainer doesn't find leaving to be good? What a shocker! I am so surprised by that shocking revelation!Nigelb said:
In your opinion. Not in mine.Philip_Thompson said:
May's deal had the transition period too. Any sensible deal would have a transition period.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
If its better for them than May's deal then that's good because its better for us than May's deal too. Any good deal should be a win/win as its not zero-sum. Good job MPs voted down May's Crap Deal then isn't it in hindsight? Those of us who consistently opposed the deal were right to do so.
My opinion of Brexit was and is pretty obvious, and doesn’t need restating.0 -
That's a nice pic of JRM..he looks very kind thereStark_Dawning said:
Boris's fag.HYUFD said:0 -
So, during the transition period can we now drive in EU member states without needing a special licence?0
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Especially in North and North West London.timmo said:
Plenty of lab voters supported Boris in the mayoral elections in 08 and 12MarqueeMark said:
"Been Labour all my life. But never again.DougSeal said:
If someone who tells you they are a Socialist is voting Tory then they are lying in one of two ways. Both statements cannot be true.MarqueeMark said:
Believe it. He ain't alone with finding that......DougSeal said:
You seriously expect me to believe Boris is picking up any stripe of socialist and (in the unlikely event you are correct) he will keep the anti-EU ones post Brexit? Seriously?Mortimer said:
Doing much canvassing of voters in the SW, are you?Jonathan said:
Chuckle.MarqueeMark said:
Not "many" that are moving their vote to the LibDems there aren't......PClipp said:
But the problem that you hard-line Tories are not facing up to is that many previous Conservative voters are most definitely in favour of the EU, a sound economy and a contented and stable society.Mortimer said:
There is a pretty hard ceiling to LD gains from Cons.Foxy said:
Lab currently have 235 MPs, down from 262 immediately after the last GE. They may retake some of the defectors seats, but sub 200 looks more likely to me.SouthamObserver said:
Labour will do well to return to the next Parliament with close to its current number of MPs. Sub-220 must be odds on.Foxy said:
Can anyone name a target seat for a Lab gain? They all seem pretty implausible to me. In which case the threat of a Corbyn government is a hollow one.SouthamObserver said:
Everyone knows Labour can’t win. And, as we keep being told by wealthy Brexit supporters, it’s not about money anyway.
The SNP will make gains from both SCON and SLAB, but the key to preventing a Tory majority is LD gains from Con, which is how former Lab voters should move in Tory held constituencies.
Ex LB/Tory marginals, for example in Dorset, now have huge Tory majorities. And as MarqueeMark and I keep reminding people, many previously LD voters down here in the SW are not pro-EU.
I am. We're keeping most of the Remainers, winning life-long anti-EU socialists over and getting the Leavers who voted BXP/INDY/DNV in May, back on board.
Boris is genuinely popular.
Maybe it's just a SW thing.
Maybe.
I like your Boris."
You saying I've never heard this on the doorsteps? OK, suit yourself.....0 -
Because we're seeking to take back control over our laws. That was the binary choice in the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Of course under May's deal we would have got frictionless access to the SM for the whole of the UK. Now these bozos are celebrating not having such access.Cyclefree said:
Isn't it just.DougSeal said:The rapidity with which the Tories on here are celebrating throwing the DUP under a bus when only last week they were saying that their voice had to be respected at all costs is a sight to behold.
Also this -Very revealing.....Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market”
— Rob Merrick (@Rob_Merrick) October 18, 2019
That’s EXACTLY why the rest of the UK will be left poorer, of course
For the transition period we will not have taken back control over our laws because we will have to follow them and have no say in them. Nor I am willing to guess will we as a result of any treaty. The "take back control" meme will be shown to be largely a chimera in reality.0 -
Shit sandwich for ScotlandBig_G_NorthWales said:
And a good deal for NICyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.0 -
Judging by the shock on DUP faces it was, however, a masterclass in misdirection.Alistair said:
Getting a deal was not some masterclass of negotiation.CarlottaVance said:
If we knew Boris was prepared to ditch his opposition to a border down the Irish Sea then I think even the dullest person on here would have predicted a deal being done in short order.0 -
I don't think anyone in Labour thinks Boris' deal is good for the country.Pulpstar said:Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?
Most would choose it over No Deal, but that doesn't seem to be the alternative, given the Benn Act.0 -
Merkel confirms she would give an extension if needed .
She said the EU can not be seen to force the UK out without a deal .0 -
Which lane do we enter at airports during transition? EU or non-EU?SouthamObserver said:So, during the transition period can we now drive in EU member states without needing a special licence?
0 -
Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Isn't that a rather pitiful answer? "It will be good because you don't like it."nunuone said:
Owning the remainers.MikeSmithson said:Assuming this does go through on Saturday can someone explain the benefits that we will all receive once we are out of the EU. How is it going to make our lives better? What has been driving the brexiteers to press the for this huge change in Britain's position? What will be the performance o indicators for brexit?
0 -
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0
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Or.....Boris wins 100 seat majority.Benpointer said:Here's a scenario...
- Boris's Deal scrapes through and we leave on 31 October.
- Jezza agrees to a December 12th election cos he's got nowhere to hide.
- Arcuri scandal blows up mid-campaign and Boris forced to resign.
- Tories turn to Hunt who wins narrow majority.
😈😈😈0 -
Lisa Nandy re-selected by Wigan Labour. Hopefully she feels more comfortable voting through the deal now.0
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Yes, I did wonder about that.Stark_Dawning said:
You've got to love 'em! I wonder if NI will soon become the boom province of the UK, with the rest of us, looking up from our stodgy dinner of 'temperate climate' vegetables, to view them with envious eyes.148grss said:
Might be time to get some buy-to-lets in Belfast.0 -
I half agree with that, but I think the EU have made concessions to Johnson too.Cyclefree said:Big_G_NorthWales said:No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
There is I'm afraid a level of naivety going on. This deal is a very good one for the EU. Boris impaled himself on his date pledge and has been forced to do everything he said he was not going to do. The EU has ended up with pretty much what they initially offered, a weakened Britain and a very clear understanding of the vanities of the British political class and how poor it is at negotiating, something which will no doubt stand the EU (and other countries) in good stead in the negotiations to come.
It is better than No Deal. So I hope it passes. But let's not kid ourselves that this is some kind of marvellous outcome. It is the least worst outcome given the way the government has conducted itself since the result. It could have been so much better. But we are where we are.
1. There is a consent mechanism.
2. Northern Ireland is in a dual-customs status, rather than simply in the EU customs union.
3. Um. Okay. Maybe I three-quarters agree.0 -
She would vote for the deal, but...Brom said:Lisa Nandy re-selected by Wigan Labour. Hopefully she feels more comfortable voting through the deal now.
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Assuming politics trumps nation and common good as usual it is impossible to see how Boris can have the numbers tomorrow. If he gets this deal (and almost no British, especially English, voters take account of the DUP or NI interest generally) he would appear to be in an unassailable position. If he doesn't get this deal both Labour and LibDems, to say nothing of the whole Remain camp, at least live to fight another day. It is hard to see what interest anyone else can have in establishing Boris as the Churchill de nos jours.OblitusSumMe said:
I don't think you can accuse the Labour leadership of prioritising the party interest - their priority is considerably narrower than that.Pulpstar said:Open question - Does anyone seriously think Labour is putting country ahead of party in all of this now ?
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Bit like an SNP government then :-)malcolmg said:
Shit sandwich for ScotlandBig_G_NorthWales said:
And a good deal for NICyclefree said:
Yes. And having to pay money in.FeersumEnjineeya said:
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?Pulpstar said:
We're into transition then so nothing will change.FeersumEnjineeya said:Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.0 -
Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1185136647849070593
Looks like we have a deal folks.
Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .0 -
Jezza is close to one of his long term political goals this morning. UK out of the capitalist plot otherwise known as the the EU.
Maybe time to retire having achieved so much in politics?1 -
I wonder if some of the constituency labour parties in very leave areas whilst probably still remain heavy are more acquiescable to a potential deal than the obviously larger city memberships.Brom said:Lisa Nandy re-selected by Wigan Labour. Hopefully she feels more comfortable voting through the deal now.
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Garbage from you as usual, you know zero about Scotland given the dribble you post. Majority want a referendum and when it comes a majority will want independence. Nobody believes NI is any more a special case than Scotland. Acouple of millionaire Tory farmers and fisherman do not constitute the public of Scotland you halfwitted dullard.Burgessian said:Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.
Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.
In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.
And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.0 -
I'm not so sure. Seamus/Murphy/Jezza inner cabinet want us out. For idealogical reasons, but also allows them to move on to the meaty stuff in their opinion of nationalisation and the NHS etc etcnico67 said:
Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1185136647849070593
Looks like we have a deal folks.
Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .0 -
Boris has been frightfully mean to her !rottenborough said:
She would vote for the deal, but...Brom said:Lisa Nandy re-selected by Wigan Labour. Hopefully she feels more comfortable voting through the deal now.
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Yes and more so as most of the population would back it whereas the black population opposed the Iain Smith Government in Rhodesia.Philip_Thompson said:
You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?HYUFD said:
Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.Philip_Thompson said:
You're mad as a box of frogs.HYUFD said:
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its willDougSeal said:
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.HYUFD said:
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unificationTOPPING said:
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).HYUFD said:3 in 5 Northern Irish voters backed the backstop.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more ards unification.
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
The Tory right and the Brexit Party would also back any Antrim UDI0
