If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
TheJessiah said: "HYUFD is more polite than many other posters on this site, I may disagree with him strongly ideologically but he is far nicer than many other people on this website".
As a relative newbie on this site I must say that it think the quality of posts is very impressive. More knowledgable the some if the journos I think. We shouldn`t shy from being rude from time to time though. Freedon of speech and all.
Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.
Scotland the only region to think that parliament should vote to reject the deal, the naughty, little, diehard remainer tinkers that we are. I'm sure HYUFD will be along shortly to divine the 'real' meaning of this.
Scots are actually split almost evenly, 31% in favour of passing the Boris Deal, 36% against, 33% Don't Know. So more Scots back the Boris Deal as a percentage than Scottish MPs will vote for it, thanks to SNP, LD and Labour opposition
I note you missed this out: Wrong to leave - 64% Govt handling of Brexit - 85% ‘badly” Trust BJ - 20% BJ Deal - Good, 11%; Bad, 38%
I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.
35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.
Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.
I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.
Does don't know = don't care?
I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves" I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
I find it equally unfathomable that people are of the opinion that we are not capable of framing our own laws and regulations on Environment, Labour, Working Practices and other regulatory standards.
We won't be able when we sign a FTA with Canada or Japan anyway. Or with a Warren-led US for that matter.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
I'd agree with that actually.
Except the immediate and urgent question becomes what GB is going to do with its newfound freedom. Where on a spectrum from WTO to EEA do we actually want to end up?
If the parties are sensible it'd go something like this:
I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.
35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.
Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.
I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.
Does don't know = don't care?
I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves" I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
I find it equally unfathomable that people are of the opinion that we are not capable of framing our own laws and regulations on Environment, Labour, Working Practices and other regulatory standards.
Also one of the main contributors to the large leave vote in the midlands and north was an EU law, The Posted Workers Directive. Allowing the employment of Eastern Europeans on inferior (lower cost) workers rights from their home country as opposed to UK workers rights.
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more ards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
You're mad as a box of frogs.
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.
London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
You think Antrim is comparable to Rhodesia?
And how will Antrim be a viable state by itself without any friends?
Yes and more so as most of the population would back it whereas the black population opposed the Iain Smith Government in Rhodesia.
The Tory right and the Brexit Party would also back any Antrim UDI
You’re mad. You want to partition Ireland further? Have you learnt nothing?
I think @HYUFD can only be some parody account dreamt up by @SeanT. Only that would explain the nonsense he is now writing. It can only be a matter of time before he/SeanT starts talking about how Antrim will get its own nuclear weapons.
Yet the objective evidence suggests that SeanT doesn’t have much ability to dream up and bring to life new characters?
His characters sometimes have implausible/inconsistent backstories.
Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.
The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.
His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"
I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
I think the right hated Kerry for “stabbing America in the back” by testifying to Congress about the actions of US soldiers in Vietnam. One of the Burns/Novick documentary episodes goes into this period in some detail. The whole “swift-boat“ stuff was a dog-whistle to remind that population of Kerry’s past actions more than anything else I suspect.
(Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)
I had a cousin who was a senior officer with the Australians in Vietnam. Regular army and decorated for combat against Japan so no shrinking violet, but he too came back from Vietnam bitterly disillusioned, particularly with the cavalier attitude by the Americans to civilian casualties.
Which is why Ken Burns' documentary is so stunning.
It is indeed an astonishing piece. Parts of the current "Spotlight on the Troubles: a secret history" are the closest that I have seen from the UK.
I don't know if you caught this, but also very good.
Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and ?
A substitute is willingness to take advice from wonks and then push it through - Reagan is widely credited with that, and you can argue that Blair and Thatcher were too. Blair's performance deteriorated IMO when he started to get deeper into policy - he became obsessed with a couple of controversial issues (Iraq, PFI), started saying "I" instead of "we" and generally lost the overall vision that he started with and was so good at communicating.
Very interesting.
Thatcher famously told her advisers that Reagan had a 'complete lack of grey matter' and it was commented that if the Americans really knew what Thatcher thought of Reagan's abilities it would've ruined the special relationship.
Yet she genuinely liked and cared about him (and flirted with him) and saw him as someone with a warmth and ability to listen which had a dramatic (world-changing) effect on the Cold War.
Don’t you think Reagan was just lucky? The US outspent the USSR in the arms race to the point where the latter was unable to sustain its empire in Eastern Europe. The reasons the US did so were the powerful military-industrial factions within America that wanted to sustain their financial position (the same factions who pushed the “war” on terrorism more recently for the same reasons). Reagan went along with this because that’s how his party and his presidency worked. He struck lucky when the Soviet empire collapsed on his watch.
It happened in autumn 1989, under Bush Snr. But i accept the point that the increased military spending under Reagan pushed the SU and warsaw pact to destruction. I always remember the failed coup in 1991? That was a worrying time!
I remember that very clearly because we were in Czechoslovakia and set out for a normal day’s touring to find long queues at every petrol station. We rushed home and managed to get the world service on a very crackly radio. It was a pretty nervous time in Eastern Europe and it was clear that a lot of them were getting ready to run.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
I genuinely amazes me how some MPs demonized No Deal and say that their aim all along (inc Benn Act) was to avoid No Deal but are now shamelessly pivoting to attack a deal that they had calculated would not come.
Reinforces the oft-voiced cynical view that they actually want to Revoke but haven`t the balls to say so.
I haven’t ever sat in Parliament so may be completely wrong, but one would think that the Lavery threats would mean Boris either gets all Labour rebels, or none. You wouldn’t want to be alone or a small group of splitters. If he gets all, he’s home and dry.
You're overlooking that he probably won't get none. It's sort of assumed that the small group of existing rebels (Flint et al, albeit that Mann is now effectively an independent) will back the deal. So it's just a question of how many join them, and a few have stated publicly that they intend to.
By-the-by, I think it's incredible that people are denigrating Johnson's achievement in getting this far, and even saying ridiculous things such as it being forced on him by the Benn Act, which they credit as having helped. It's abundantly clear that he has defied expectations on a massive scale, and that the authors of the Benn Act intended it to force a path towards Remain, not a Deal. He deserves the benefit of the doubt that he had a plan, and has executed it well.
And I say the above as someone who supported Stewart, voted for Hunt and continues to believe Johnson is unfit to serve as Prime Minister. None of that detracts from what he has achieved, and that it seems reasonable to assert that we would be in a far better place today as a country if he'd been leading the negotiations from Day 1.
I genuinely amazes me how some MPs demonized No Deal and say that their aim all along (inc Benn Act) was to avoid No Deal but are now shamelessly pivoting to attack a deal that they had calculated would not come.
Reinforces the oft-voiced cynical view that they actually want to Revoke but haven`t the balls to say so.
I genuinely amazes me how some MPs demonized No Deal and say that their aim all along (inc Benn Act) was to avoid No Deal but are now shamelessly pivoting to attack a deal that they had calculated would not come.
Reinforces the oft-voiced cynical view that they actually want to Revoke but haven`t the balls to say so.
Alastair Campbell and Richard Tice both on tv now slamming the deal!
Tice doesn't seem to have much energy for the argument anymore to me.
Campbell is one of those arch-Remainers who went mental immediately after the result.
He actually is mentally ill, so be careful.
I think you should be careful in what you say. I thought there was supposed to be greater acceptence of mental illness? Seems to have passed you by... He might have been ill in the past but that does not mean he is now. You can think about killing yourself and still competently execute a job by the way...
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
All the more reason to fight against long term deals formed under Trump's attitude to deals, ie one side gets shafted and it won't be his.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
It’s the forces that propelled him to power - and indeed us to Brexit - that are worthy of analysis and are unlikely simply to disappear
Thankfully that was before a deal was agreed. A lot has changed since Wednesday. She owes her constituents more than she owes Corbyn - she had made her seat relatively safe until he took over as Labour leader.
Perhaps she owes her constituents her opposition to something as cretinous as Brexit.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
I'd agree with that actually.
Except the immediate and urgent question becomes what GB is going to do with its newfound freedom. Where on a spectrum from WTO to EEA do we actually want to end up?
If the parties are sensible it'd go something like this:
Actually I expect all the parties to broadly follow those lines except Labour who will do God knows what.
Sounds sensible. Though the Lib Dems might be prudent to steer towards a NI-type arrangement (so really BINO) for a while if/when the Revoke ship sails. And are the Conservatives really in the mood to make the compromises needed for a Canada deal, let alone the supercanadadoubleplusgood thing they used to promise?
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
It is very much part of Boris's shtick though. So that's why we have to be interested in what might result from his (recent) hero worship of this particular President.
Maybe though he will do to the US President what he has done to the DUP. Who can say with him? Whatever's good for Boris seems to be his only compass.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
I'd agree with that actually.
Except the immediate and urgent question becomes what GB is going to do with its newfound freedom. Where on a spectrum from WTO to EEA do we actually want to end up?
If the parties are sensible it'd go something like this:
Actually I expect all the parties to broadly follow those lines except Labour who will do God knows what.
Sounds sensible. Though the Lib Dems might be prudent to steer towards a NI-type arrangement (so really BINO) for a while if/when the Revoke ship sails. And are the Conservatives really in the mood to make the compromises needed for a Canada deal, let alone the supercanadadoubleplusgood thing they used to promise?
I'm sure Cash and Patterson will be leading the charge for WTO in the next phase with Gauke and Rudd on the Norway side but the Tory middle surely somewhere close to Canada++ ? I think we'll be in transition for a decade or so anyway to secure the FTA.
I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.
35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.
Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.
I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.
Does don't know = don't care?
I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves" I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
Don't you trust the British public to decide their own futures?
I do not trust Conservative governments deciding our labour laws as they would when they are in government. The beauty of the EU was this was effectively out of a right wing government's hand. The Part-time worker's directive, the 48 hour rule would never have been enacted by a Tory government. A Labour government could have, but a Tory government could repeal those laws. Within the EU, that was not possible. Labour MPs who act as Johnson's poodle should note what they will be remembered for the rest of their lives.
Alastair Campbell and Richard Tice both on tv now slamming the deal!
Tice doesn't seem to have much energy for the argument anymore to me.
Campbell is one of those arch-Remainers who went mental immediately after the result.
He actually is mentally ill, so be careful.
I think you should be careful in what you say. I thought there was supposed to be greater acceptence of mental illness? Seems to have passed you by... He might have been ill in the past but that does not mean he is now. You can think about killing yourself and still competently execute a job by the way...
It hasn’t passed me by, I was pulling Gabs2 up for calling someone who suffers with mental illness ‘mental’
Well, yes, but it was good old mindless buccaneering raw politics which got us here in the first place - specifically, Cameron's inability to think like a lawyer (or, indeed, an adult) and say, OK, I have a plan for when things go the way I expect them to go. What is my plan for when they don't?
I think this is an interesting exchange. Raw politics drives a lot of actual decision-making and ?
A substitute is willingness to take advice from with and was so good at communicating.
Very interesting.
Thatcher famously told her advisers that Reagan had a 'complete lack of grey matter' and it was commented that if the Americans really knew what Thatcher thought of Reagan's abilities it would've ruined the special relationship.
Yet she genuinely liked and cared about him (and flirted with him) and saw him as someone with a warmth and ability to listen which had a dramatic (world-changing) effect on the Cold War.
Don’t you think Reagan was just lucky? The US outspent the USSR in the arms race to the point where the latter was unable to sustain its empire in Eastern Europe. The reasons the US did so were the powerful military-industrial factions within America that wanted to sustain their financial position (the same factions who pushed the “war” on terrorism more recently for the same reasons). Reagan went along with this because that’s how his party and his presidency worked. He struck lucky when the Soviet empire collapsed on his watch.
It happened in autumn 1989, under Bush Snr. But i accept the point that the increased military spending under Reagan pushed the SU and warsaw pact to destruction. I always remember the failed coup in 1991? That was a worrying time!
I remember that very clearly because we were in Czechoslovakia and set out for a normal day’s touring to find long queues at every petrol station. We rushed home and managed to get the world service on a very crackly radio. It was a pretty nervous time in Eastern Europe and it was clear that a lot of them were getting ready to run.
Crikey, you must have felt vulnerable in that situation! Thankfully the coup failed! I have visited Prague about 15 years ago and found the museum of communism very interesting. A family friend from that country described life under communism, which i found interesting. Also, when the Nazi's invaded and peoples reaction.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
It’s the forces that propelled him to power - and indeed us to Brexit - that are worthy of analysis and are unlikely simply to disappear
I understand and largely agree with what you say and why you say it, except that is by and large 'the people'
They in the end are the correct arbiters and electorate. Should we disenfranchise them as we don't like the result?
Alastair Campbell and Richard Tice both on tv now slamming the deal!
Tice doesn't seem to have much energy for the argument anymore to me.
Campbell is one of those arch-Remainers who went mental immediately after the result.
He actually is mentally ill, so be careful.
I think you should be careful in what you say. I thought there was supposed to be greater acceptence of mental illness? Seems to have passed you by... He might have been ill in the past but that does not mean he is now. You can think about killing yourself and still competently execute a job by the way...
It hasn’t passed me by, I was pulling Gabs2 up for calling someone who suffers with mental illness ‘mental’
Sorry, i thought you were saying AC was mentally ill now.
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
Even Barack Obama's presidency tried to pass some God-awful shite in the TPP. Extreme positions on the rights of Big Pharma to have vastly long patents, the right for corporations to sue governments in secret courts etc. Thankfully they dropped out and Australia & Canada removed all the crap from the CPTPP.
Admittedly a President Warren or Sanders would be different. But Biden would not.
I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.
35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.
Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.
I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.
Does don't know = don't care?
I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves" I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
Don't you trust the British public to decide their own futures?
I do not trust Conservative governments deciding our labour laws as they would when they are in government. The beauty of the EU was this was effectively out of a right wing government's hand. The Part-time worker's directive, the 48 hour rule would never have been enacted by a Tory government. A Labour government could have, but a Tory government could repeal those laws. Within the EU, that was not possible. Labour MPs who act as Johnson's poodle should note what they will be remembered for the rest of their lives.
So, to go back to that previous question, what do you have against the British people deciding what social policies we have applicable in this country?
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
I'd have thought a corporal's stripe might suffice...
Or a damn good slapping.
I'd have thought a Kentucky Fried Chicken Colonel-ship would be more his thing, judging by his size.
I thought you were a progressive? I did not realise body-shaming was your style.
I have regularly commented on the appearance of people in public life. People should make an effort to look respectable in public. He is very overweight and cannot even wear a shirt big enough to fit him properly.
The other day the PM got out of his car arriving at Downing Street with his shirt hanging outside his trousers like some schoolboy and proceeded to tuck it down the back of his trousers. It's pathetic. He's a grown man and is meant to represent Britain not look like he's auditioning for an adult version of Just William.
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
Not really. The deal gives Northern Ireland a tremendous advantage to gain from UK FTAs, giving it a privileged position it will not have in the ROI. That will become a major barrier to unification.
Alastair Campbell and Richard Tice both on tv now slamming the deal!
Tice doesn't seem to have much energy for the argument anymore to me.
Campbell is one of those arch-Remainers who went mental immediately after the result.
He actually is mentally ill, so be careful.
I think you should be careful in what you say. I thought there was supposed to be greater acceptence of mental illness? Seems to have passed you by... He might have been ill in the past but that does not mean he is now. You can think about killing yourself and still competently execute a job by the way...
It hasn’t passed me by, I was pulling Gabs2 up for calling someone who suffers with mental illness ‘mental’
Sorry, i thought you were saying AC was mentally ill now.
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
Not really. The deal gives Northern Ireland a tremendous advantage to gain from UK FTAs, giving it a privileged position it will not have in the ROI. That will become a major barrier to unification.
Which FTAs will have any advantage to NI businesses above the EU ones?
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
Not really. The deal gives Northern Ireland a tremendous advantage to gain from UK FTAs, giving it a privileged position it will not have in the ROI. That will become a major barrier to unification.
Which FTAs will have any advantage to NI businesses above the EU ones?
Excellent tweet from Sam who I think will be a real asset to the LDs going forward. This is the game plan from the No Dealers who, having been blocked from getting what they wanted this year, are now going to get their way next year.
The WA is voted through and having won a mandate at a GE in the spring we move through Transition only to exit without an FTA to No Deal by 31/12/20. I now think this is the alternative Cummings strategy and with a majority for Johnson in the Commons and a WTA agreed there'll be nothing to stop it.
Thanks to @isam and @TOPPING for getting back to me. Apologies to anybody who has responded but I missed. Ok, where are we?
@TOPPING : good point (topping, in fact ). Unfortunately I can't do spread betting, for reasons I shall explain later in the year. I will however see if my institution sells put options. Are there any non-spread-betting companies that do this?
@isam : yes, I know. As the day drags on it seems more and more likely that Deal will pass and hence a NoDeal bet would be a good-value loser. For insurance purposes I will probably have to do another NoDeal bet (250@4/1 immunises £5000 of wealth from a 20% fall, and caps the cost) but I'm not expecting it to win.
(Of course, if it does win, I will leave that bit out whilst crowing... )
Will they really still want No Deal in a year's time? To what end? We'll be 1/2 through discussing a FTA, which is what they want isn't it?
No Deal is what the headbangers want
I suspect it's not so much that they really want No Deal, just that they really don't want to do anything which might lead to a deal. Hence the steady progression down (and now possibly off) Barnier's staircase of doom.
Ffs make them the pledge, tell them you'll deny it if they go gabbing off about it and then screw them once the deal is through. These pathetic headbangers need to fuck off
I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.
35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.
Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.
I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.
Does don't know = don't care?
I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves" I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
Don't you trust the British public to decide their own futures?
The British public won’t choose anything, you may have some influence if you live in a marginal but if you don’t then you very little.
Excellent tweet from Sam who I think will be a real asset to the LDs going forward. This is the game plan from the No Dealers who, having been blocked from getting what they wanted this year, are now going to get their way next year.
The WA is voted through and having won a mandate at a GE in the spring we move through Transition only to exit without an FTA to No Deal by 31/12/20. I now think this is the alternative Cummings strategy and with a majority for Johnson in the Commons and a WTA agreed there'll be nothing to stop it.
Be careful what you wish for.
Johnson will have to do it if parliament forces him to write a letter requesting an extension
This guy works at the WTO in Geneva. Point is not so much that a prima facie illegal arrangement can't be legalised. It's that even trade experts don't understand what's going on with the deal that MPs will voting on over a couple of hours on Saturday.
This guy works at the WTO in Geneva. Point is not so much that a prima facie illegal arrangement can't be legalised. It's that even trade experts don't understand what's going on with the deal that MPs will voting on over a couple of hours on Saturday.
This guy works at the WTO in Geneva. Point is not so much that a prima facie illegal arrangement can't be legalised. It's that even trade experts don't understand what's going on with the deal that MPs will voting on over a couple of hours on Saturday.
Thanks to @isam and @TOPPING for getting back to me. Apologies to anybody who has responded but I missed. Ok, where are we?
@TOPPING : good point (topping, in fact ). Unfortunately I can't do spread betting, for reasons I shall explain later in the year. I will however see if my institution sells put options. Are there any non-spread-betting companies that do this?
@isam : yes, I know. As the day drags on it seems more and more likely that Deal will pass and hence a NoDeal bet would be a good-value loser. For insurance purposes I will probably have to do another NoDeal bet (250@4/1 immunises £5000 of wealth from a 20% fall, and caps the cost) but I'm not expecting it to win.
(Of course, if it does win, I will leave that bit out whilst crowing... )
If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
Possibly. Corbyn isn't going to suddenly become a Euro enthusiast post-Brexit. Quite the opposite - he may well be secretly happy with the outcome.
So Labour will indeed campaign on the "other issues", leaving the Lib Dems free to grasp the title of the Rejoin Party.
What remains to be seen is how big the market will be for Rejoin, and to what extent it will swing people's votes.
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
Not really. The deal gives Northern Ireland a tremendous advantage to gain from UK FTAs, giving it a privileged position it will not have in the ROI. That will become a major barrier to unification.
Why would UK FTA's be better than EU ones ? The EU gives a market of 400m people. The UK gives 65m.
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
Not really. The deal gives Northern Ireland a tremendous advantage to gain from UK FTAs, giving it a privileged position it will not have in the ROI. That will become a major barrier to unification.
Why would UK FTA's be better than EU ones ? The EU gives a market of 400m people. The UK gives 65m.
Because the UK can conclude these deals far quicker than the EU, it is a priority for the UK, and the UK do not need to satisy as many domestic lobbies to get something passed.
The real irony. If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs were to sit in the HoC, they would have voted for @BorisJohnson 's Deal whether they would admit it or not. SF can't believe their luck.
Not really. The deal gives Northern Ireland a tremendous advantage to gain from UK FTAs, giving it a privileged position it will not have in the ROI. That will become a major barrier to unification.
Why would UK FTA's be better than EU ones ? The EU gives a market of 400m people. The UK gives 65m.
Size of the market is not the be all and end all.
We have fewer vested interests as a single nation than as a bloc.
So, just checking. The general population back remaining over either other option?
Remain most popular option. LDs on track to sweep general election.
47% back Brexit with the Boris Deal or No Deal, only 38% back Remain
Accept under the forced circumstances, not back: and it doesn't mean it is what they want anyway.
It would be more interestding if you explored the difference. In Scotland, which you have as backing Brexit by 52, the same poll has the anti-brexit vote is even higher than at the referendum, at 64%.
Apparently the government is bringing forward legislation to guarantee workers rights etc.
Not sure how you can legally guarantee these unless they were in the WA. And even if he brings this forward no Labour MP should back the deal until they see the legislation.
Comments
https://order-order.com/2019/10/18/snap-poll-public-want-deal-passing/
https://order-order.com/2019/10/18/leave-eu-come-support-boriss-deal/
https://order-order.com/2019/10/18/britain-stronger-europe-chair-backs-boriss-deal/
https://order-order.com/2019/10/18/attorney-general-northern-ireland-protocol-can-terminated/
And we can crush the hard left project too
https://order-order.com/2019/10/18/momentum-boss-calls-deselect-labour-mps-vote-new-deal/
As a relative newbie on this site I must say that it think the quality of posts is very impressive. More knowledgable the some if the journos I think. We shouldn`t shy from being rude from time to time though. Freedon of speech and all.
Wrong to leave - 64%
Govt handling of Brexit - 85% ‘badly”
Trust BJ - 20%
BJ Deal - Good, 11%; Bad, 38%
WTO (Brexit Party)
Canada (Tories)
Norway (Labour)
Rejoin (Lib Dems)
Actually I expect all the parties to broadly follow those lines except Labour who will do God knows what.
I struggle with the obsession with 'Trumps America'
He is a transient part of America and will be gone in a year or five. He is of no interest in the overall future of our relationship with USA.
Reinforces the oft-voiced cynical view that they actually want to Revoke but haven`t the balls to say so.
By-the-by, I think it's incredible that people are denigrating Johnson's achievement in getting this far, and even saying ridiculous things such as it being forced on him by the Benn Act, which they credit as having helped. It's abundantly clear that he has defied expectations on a massive scale, and that the authors of the Benn Act intended it to force a path towards Remain, not a Deal. He deserves the benefit of the doubt that he had a plan, and has executed it well.
And I say the above as someone who supported Stewart, voted for Hunt and continues to believe Johnson is unfit to serve as Prime Minister. None of that detracts from what he has achieved, and that it seems reasonable to assert that we would be in a far better place today as a country if he'd been leading the negotiations from Day 1.
So May's deal was backed by 19% and 44% opposed. Slightly different question but clearly different public sentiment too.
He might have been ill in the past but that does not mean he is now. You can think about killing yourself and still competently execute a job by the way...
Alastair Campbell has wreaked more damage on our body politic than almost anybody. I am lucky not to know enough about R Tice to comment.
Brilliant - thanks for that image
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
Maybe though he will do to the US President what he has done to the DUP. Who can say with him? Whatever's good for Boris seems to be his only compass.
I'd have thought a Kentucky Fried Chicken Colonel-ship would be more his thing, judging by his size.
I think we'll be in transition for a decade or so anyway to secure the FTA.
Labour MPs who act as Johnson's poodle should note what they will be remembered for the rest of their lives.
They in the end are the correct arbiters and electorate. Should we disenfranchise them as we don't like the result?
Remain most popular option. LDs on track to sweep general election.
Admittedly a President Warren or Sanders would be different. But Biden would not.
The other day the PM got out of his car arriving at Downing Street with his shirt hanging outside his trousers like some schoolboy and proceeded to tuck it down the back of his trousers. It's pathetic. He's a grown man and is meant to represent Britain not look like he's auditioning for an adult version of Just William.
He made lots of sense last night on newsnight.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185167505196769281
https://www.changeboard.com/article-details/16817/alastair-campbell-it-s-not-brave-to-talk-about-mental-health/
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1185159827045208064
That does make his treatment of David Kelly all the more unforgivable mind.
But if Boris goes to the country and gets a huge majority after the Deal is voted down...
The WA is voted through and having won a mandate at a GE in the spring we move through Transition only to exit without an FTA to No Deal by 31/12/20. I now think this is the alternative Cummings strategy and with a majority for Johnson in the Commons and a WTA agreed there'll be nothing to stop it.
Be careful what you wish for.
@TOPPING : good point (topping, in fact
@isam : yes, I know. As the day drags on it seems more and more likely that Deal will pass and hence a NoDeal bet would be a good-value loser. For insurance purposes I will probably have to do another NoDeal bet (250@4/1 immunises £5000 of wealth from a 20% fall, and caps the cost) but I'm not expecting it to win.
(Of course, if it does win, I will leave that bit out whilst crowing...
https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1185148270168989696
Phillips is likable
Francois......
The lib dems will seek EEA brexit and have a long term ambition to rejoin at some unspecified point in the future.
The expectation is that the FTA follows immediately on from transition.
Hes a journo, btw, according to his twitter bio.
So Labour will indeed campaign on the "other issues", leaving the Lib Dems free to grasp the title of the Rejoin Party.
What remains to be seen is how big the market will be for Rejoin, and to what extent it will swing people's votes.
We have fewer vested interests as a single nation than as a bloc.
It would be more interestding if you explored the difference. In Scotland, which you have as backing Brexit by 52, the same poll has the anti-brexit vote is even higher than at the referendum, at 64%.
It's delusive to ignore that discrepancy.
Not sure how you can legally guarantee these unless they were in the WA. And even if he brings this forward no Labour MP should back the deal until they see the legislation.