Yes, the Header sums up the essence of this very well indeed.
As to what will happen?
Now it has become clear that there WILL be an extension (either for a GE or for Ref2) if the Deal fails, it puts Boris Johnson in the Theresa May position but with a better chance of getting it through.
And I think it WILL pass.
Why?
Because this works for Labour too. Hence their decision not to sanction rebels who vote for it. Brexit happening gets them off the hook of their difficult-to-sell Brexit position. It then opens up clear attack lines for a GE - oppose tooth & nail the Tory plan (via the PD) to trash workers, consumers and the environment. And as a brucie bonus it stuffs the Lib Dems.
So that's my prediction. I'm going in with it early. The Deal passes and I reckon by about 10.
Interestingly I think you're right. McDonnell I think genuinely wants the deal voted down, but Corbyn I feel would as a backbencher have been voting for Brexit and will be quietly hopeful this goes through.
It is noteworthy that Corbyn's fellow traveller Dennis Skinner voted FOR leaving the EU without a deal, but AGAINST on MV1 and abstained on MV2 (struggling to see how he voted for MV3). Can Skinner countenance walking through the lobby for a Tory deal?
On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.
The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)
Whereas now they have a unified entity on the island of Ireland which has a different regulatory regime to that of Great Britain. It is all the nationalists could have hoped for. Boris doing their work to edge towards a united Ireland.
@MarqueeMark pls note also wrt Boris the Unionist. Unionists don't carve out bits of their Union to let it align with a foreign power (to use the vernacular).
The fastest route to a United Ireland would have been a hard border in Ireland between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Boris avoided that and preserved the Good Friday Agreement
You have no idea about what would or wouldn't have transpired with a hard border. You just don't have that type of contextual knowledge.
I have said for years on here that there would be no hard border and I would be amazed if you haven't at some point told me I was wrong, along with others on here.
But what is unalterably the case is that Boris' deal, by hiving off NI and allowing it to align with the RoI, brings unification closer and all with the official sanction of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Nick Palmer said: "I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead."
A GE in 2019 is a massive lay and has been for a while. Corbyn speaks with forked tongue. Why on earth would he want an election given the polls?
He might not have a choice. An LD, SNP, Tory stitch up to destroy a prone labour is very possible. And if the LDs and SNP want it theyll be happy to agree no amendments to said act
Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.
I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.
The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
Not really , it’s just insurance to get the legislation through . They only agreed to rush things through to help Johnson but you should note Guy V , he said the EU parliament will only start the process of ratification once the legislation has passed in the UK .
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
Yes. The transistion period until the end of 2020 triggers and nothing changes
So I congratulated you a little too soon yesterday as it turns out
It was PR to help Johnson sell the Deal. There WILL be an extension if the Deal fails. Just that this time it will have to be for a specific event, GE or Ref2.
Still QUITE an astute call though - since although they don't have the stomach to kick us out thoughts clearly turned that way in certain quarters.
Who says there will be an extension? Luxembourg and France seem quite against it and Parliament seems unable to agree a referendum.
“Article 4 - Customs Territory of the United Kingdom
Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom.
Accordingly, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern Ireland in the territorial scope of any agreements it may conclude with third countries, provided that those agreements do not prejudice the application of this Protocol.
In particular, nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from concluding agreements with a third country that grant goods produced in Northern Ireland preferential access to that country’s market on the same terms as goods produced in other parts of the United Kingdom.
Nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from including Northern Ireland in the territorial scope of its Schedules of Concessions annexed to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994.”
That means that imports to Northern Ireland would still have the same tariffs as the EU.
To think it was only a couple of weeks ago that you were vociferously arguing against any mechanism that did not give the DUP a veto. It was, you said, your firmly held conviction that their consent had to be paramount. Would you allow slavery if a majority voted for it, you asked. Should a majority be allowed to remove the right to vote from women? I am glad to see you have changed your mind. This is a very good deal for Ireland.
stodge said: "Conservatives now have a solid base of support which means they will not only win an election called in the immediate future"
Are you assuming that the vote goes through on Saturday?
If tomorrow doesn't go well for Boris in the Commons he will immediately claim the Opposition is deliberately trying to prolong Brexit knowing (as we all do) there is a very strong demand out there for this just to be done. To be honest, everyone is tired and will agree to anything including ceding Devon to Germany and Epping Forest to Belgium if it means we can move on to other things.
The public want this finished, the EU want this finished - the notion of this dragging on for another 6-12 months is anathema to so many Boris will be polling 50%+ if he goes around pointing out this blindly obvious fact.
Unfortunately, the public also now want to give Boris the credit for ending the nightmare which is completely undeserved but that's how it is. He will deliver on his promise of taking us out of the EU on 31/10 - he won't because we will be in transition until 31/12/20 and there's the not inconsiderable matter of the PD to resolve but no one is seeing that truth. All they see is a Deal and we are out on 31/10.
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
The EU has offered (in a way) to respect the referendum result, yet the British opposition parties who did pledge to respect it are against it.
Remainers railing against the bloody EU.....delicious!
I feel quite strongly that your observation about use of the term 'gaslighting' also applies to 'delicious' in anything other than a food context.
I'm with Mark here. At least I know what he means when he says delicious. Every time someone uses a word like gaslighting I have to look it up and being an old codger have to look it up again the next time it is used, and the next......
Its called getting old and has been happening since time immemorial, language has always evolved with pesky youngsters inventing seemingly unnecessary words that oldies dont get. Of course it is no fun to be reminded we are no longer young, but it is far far better than the alternative.
But once we do start making trade deals with the likes of Australia and New Zealand, it makes Rejoin that much harder - we'll have to rip up those deals. And if they have been shown to be good for trade....
The rapidity with which the Tories on here are celebrating throwing the DUP under a bus when only last week they were saying that their voice had to be respected at all costs is a sight to behold.
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
If it looks like March would they not wait until May and have it on the same day as the locals? Tories and Labour would probs prefer that as it could save them a few council seats...
On a wider question which all this is predicated upon, in the British isles generally how much opinion truly supports the present NI situation as a permanent solution to the deliverances of geography and history. There are two sane solutions, both excellent: two states - Britain and Ireland, each deciding its on fate with regard to EU, NATO and everything else; or one state - The British and Irish Isles - operating as New Zealand does. I like the second better but it isn't going to happen. Yesterday's deal would make the first slightly more possible. Good. The union as it now stands is unsustainable in the long run, and once part of Ireland is in the EU and part not this will become clearer.
The Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland, if there was a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it would have been more likely Northern Irish voters voted for a united Ireland (bar Antrim where the DUP may have declared UDI rather than join the Republic)
Whereas now they have a unified entity on the island of Ireland which has a different regulatory regime to that of Great Britain. It is all the nationalists could have hoped for. Boris doing their work to edge towards a united Ireland.
@MarqueeMark pls note also wrt Boris the Unionist. Unionists don't carve out bits of their Union to let it align with a foreign power (to use the vernacular).
The fastest route to a United Ireland would have been a hard border in Ireland between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Boris avoided that and preserved the Good Friday Agreement
You have no idea about what would or wouldn't have transpired with a hard border. You just don't have that type of contextual knowledge.
I have said for years on here that there would be no hard border and I would be amazed if you haven't at some point told me I was wrong, along with others on here.
But what is unalterably the case is that Boris' deal, by hiving off NI and allowing it to align with the RoI, brings unification closer and all with the official sanction of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Absolutely correct, and one of the more heartening aspects of the Deal.
"Speaking on BBC's This Week programme, Mr Portillo made a prediction on how he thinks Mr Johnson would resolve the UK's Brexit deadlock.
"Theresa May was offered a backstop that applied only to Northern Ireland, and she got worried about that because she thought that separated Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom," he said.
"She insisted on a backstop that involved the whole of the United Kingdom. That then set the Brexiteers against her, because they said now we're locked into a permanent Customs Union.
"The way out of this is to go back to the Northern Ireland-only backstop and to obtain the consent of the Northern Ireland people, I would say through a referendum in Northern Ireland.
"They will give it, I think, because they don't want to go back to a border, and they want to have free trade with the Republic."
This Week presenter Andrew Neil pointed out that "Mr Johnson isn't talking about any of this", to which Mr Portillo replied: "No I know, but he'll get there." "
Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.
I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.
The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
Not really , it’s just insurance to get the legislation through . They only agreed to rush things through to help Johnson but you should note Guy V , he said the EU parliament will only start the process of ratification once the legislation has passed in the UK .
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
You seem to have ignored the comments coming out of the EU this morning.
The Commission via Juncker has said it will pass in time for the 31st leaving date
There will not be a delay for continuing stonewalling.
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
(assuming the deal passes)
If Labour want to run from an election until March, then that's 5-6 months which the Tories need to hammer home the 'Corbyn is frit' message every day and night.
To think it was only a couple of weeks ago that you were vociferously arguing against any mechanism that did not give the DUP a veto. It was, you said, your firmly held conviction that their consent had to be paramount. Would you allow slavery if a majority voted for it, you asked. Should a majority be allowed to remove the right to vote from women? I am glad to see you have changed your mind. This is a very good deal for Ireland.
I never vociferously argued against any mechanism that that did not give the DUP a veto! I vociferously argued against any deal that would not let voters in NI unilaterally exit the arrangements. I said NI's voters consent was paramount and it could not be permanently stripped by a simple majority, consent would have to be ongoing.
What is different between this deal and the prior one is it requires ongoing consent from Belfast. NI's voters will retain the right to regularly vote for Stormont and if they ever vote a majority on a pledge to exit these arrangements then that simple majority will be able to enact the mandate given to them. That is the difference, that is acceptable.
This arrangement continues so long as a simple majority wish it too and for so long as NI's voters elect a simple majority wanting it to continue - the minority haven't lost their rights they've just lost the election, I'm OK with minorities losing elections, I'm not OK with them not having the elections in the first place.
But once we do start making trade deals with the likes of Australia and New Zealand, it makes Rejoin that much harder - we'll have to rip up those deals. And if they have been shown to be good for trade....
Yes. Because around 30 million people are able to buy way more of our stuff than around 500 million people.
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
With Baker, Bridgen and Francois on board I think the only ERG wavering are IDS and Patterson and you've got to assume they will back the deal. If there are 5 of the whipless Tories who oppose the deal (Gubb, Grieve, Greening, Rudd, Sandbach?) then I think if Boris can win round double figures of Lab rebels it should squeeze through (12 to be certain).
To think it was only a couple of weeks ago that you were vociferously arguing against any mechanism that did not give the DUP a veto. It was, you said, your firmly held conviction that their consent had to be paramount. Would you allow slavery if a majority voted for it, you asked. Should a majority be allowed to remove the right to vote from women? I am glad to see you have changed your mind. This is a very good deal for Ireland.
I never vociferously argued against any mechanism that that did not give the DUP a veto! I vociferously argued against any deal that would not let voters in NI unilaterally exit the arrangements. I said NI's voters consent was paramount and it could not be permanently stripped by a simple majority, consent would have to be ongoing.
What is different between this deal and the prior one is it requires ongoing consent from Belfast. NI's voters will retain the right to regularly vote for Stormont and if they ever vote a majority on a pledge to exit these arrangements then that simple majority will be able to enact the mandate given to them. That is the difference, that is acceptable.
This arrangement continues so long as a simple majority wish it too and for so long as NI's voters elect a simple majority wanting it to continue - the minority haven't lost their rights they've just lost the election, I'm OK with minorities losing elections, I'm not OK with them not having the elections in the first place.
What happens if Stormont isn't sitting or if Stormont votes not to continue? Would it become hard border all over again? My understanding is if there is no Stormont the status quo continues, so if anyone ever wanted to vote to "leave" this deal and the other side disagreed, they would just collapse any power sharing agreement, allow the status quo to roll over, and then negotiate a new power sharing arrangement. It seems little more than NI having a rubber stamp, unless I'm missing something.
Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
Yes. The transistion period until the end of 2020 triggers and nothing changes
I wonder how many extensions there will be to the transition period. That, surely, will be when the fireworks really start!
With Baker, Bridgen and Francois on board I think the only ERG wavering are IDS and Patterson and you've got to assume they will back the deal. If there are 5 of the whipless Tories who oppose the deal (Gubb, Grieve, Greening, Rudd, Sandbach?) then I think if Boris can win round double figures of Lab rebels it should squeeze through (12 to be certain).
Owen Patterson ! Is he still trying to do that trade deal with Oklahoma ?
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it may loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification.
As the poll shows fewer Northern Irish voters favour unification without a hard border
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
Yes. The transistion period until the end of 2020 triggers and nothing changes
I wonder how many extensions there will be to the transition period. That, surely, will be when the fireworks really start!
I'll cease to be a Remainer and become a Transitionista!
This is her only mention of how she might vote on it (on twitter anyway) so far, looks like she is leaning against.
Thankfully that was before a deal was agreed. A lot has changed since Wednesday. She owes her constituents more than she owes Corbyn - she had made her seat relatively safe until he took over as Labour leader.
Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.
I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
Fair enough I'm sure Johnson does believe in the Union at some level. He keeps talking about Britain, so we have to assume it's a thing for him. But it isn't a priority for him as it is for May, and as this header points out. He won't take action to support the Union if other things dictate otherwise.
What are Johnson's priorities? Frankly on the evidence: himself.
Like so many English Brexiteers (as evidenced on here), BJ hasn't made the necessary differentiation between England and the UK. This it almost goes without saying means he has no understanding of Scotland, but barely any about Scottish Unionism.
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
If it looks like March would they not wait until May and have it on the same day as the locals? Tories and Labour would probs prefer that as it could save them a few council seats...
I'm not sure. Once we have no no deal then there really is no reason for the opposition to bite the hand off an election offer. Nick's "mildly embarrasing" wouldn't cover any attempt to delay further imo.
With Baker, Bridgen and Francois on board I think the only ERG wavering are IDS and Patterson and you've got to assume they will back the deal. If there are 5 of the whipless Tories who oppose the deal (Gubb, Grieve, Greening, Rudd, Sandbach?) then I think if Boris can win round double figures of Lab rebels it should squeeze through (12 to be certain).
Owen Patterson ! Is he still trying to do that trade deal with Oklahoma ?
In fairness to Owen there's been a lot less flooding since we voted to leave the EU
Disagree on the Scotland point. If we leave the UK and the customs union, then that is then iron clad that an independent Scotland in the EU would require a hard border with rUK.
Like it or not, there is a lot more ease which Scotland would be an independent country within the EU, than an independent country with the rUK outside the EU.
Yes, I see your point.
It could make Scotland WANT independence more but at the same time make the practicalities of independence more difficult to achieve.
In short, it stuffs Scotland both ways.
Much glee in certain circles about this, no doubt.
So I congratulated you a little too soon yesterday as it turns out
It was PR to help Johnson sell the Deal. There WILL be an extension if the Deal fails. Just that this time it will have to be for a specific event, GE or Ref2.
Still QUITE an astute call though - since although they don't have the stomach to kick us out thoughts clearly turned that way in certain quarters.
Who says there will be an extension? Luxembourg and France seem quite against it and Parliament seems unable to agree a referendum.
I fully expect Boris to stand up tomorrow and say something like.
"My fantastic team of negotiators have done what was thought impossible. They have laboured like Hercules, and have indeed swept the Augean stables. Although admittedly, not in a day. It has taken them weeks and week of hard graft. But they have come back with a Deal. A very fine Deal. A Deal that I am delighted to commend to this Hoouse.
To those who think they can defer, kick the can up the road, find another delay in their Remainer Micawberesque hope that Something Will Turn UP, I say this: I have spoken to the heads of state of the EU counries. They want this done. The only grounds upon whch they will consider any extension would be for an election called in the next few days. Now, having seen the recent opinion polls and by-election results, I can see why the Party opposite are frit of the voters. So that is ruled out. For now.
Which means everyone in this House faces a stark choice. Approve this Deal now. Or wander out into the dark, unforgiving night of No Deal. Because they are your two options. Thinking that the EU will support never-ending extensions is a fiction. A fiction with a most unhappy ending..."
No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it may loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification.
As the poll shows fewer Northern Irish voters favour unification without a hard border
You are displaying your ignorance again. While I appreciate you have just spent a week on the North Antrim coast (drinking plenty of Bushmills I hope) sadly your understanding of the geopolitics of Ireland remains lacking.
Let's try to use your own words to see if that might help you to understand. We should focus on the following: "loosen ties between GB and NI". Do you therefore think that aligning NI with the RoI would strengthen the ties between NI and RoI? Do you think strengthening such ties could be seen as a move to further strengthening as and when those two territories together further separate from Great Britain?
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
If it looks like March would they not wait until May and have it on the same day as the locals? Tories and Labour would probs prefer that as it could save them a few council seats...
I'm not sure. Once we have no no deal then there really is no reason for the opposition to bite the hand off an election offer. Nick's "mildly embarrasing" wouldn't cover any attempt to delay further imo.
Christmas & winter are just about plausible excuses... Labour need another 1962/3 winter! ❄❄❄
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather thsn be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
You keep saying that but that doesn’t make it true.
This is her only mention of how she might vote on it (on twitter anyway) so far, looks like she is leaning against.
Thankfully that was before a deal was agreed. A lot has changed since Wednesday. She owes her constituents more than she owes Corbyn - she had made her seat relatively safe until he took over as Labour leader.
You might be slightly shocked at the numbers of Labour votes against this deal if you think they will only vote against it as a favour to Corbyn. She is more up for leaving than other Labour MPs and wants to leave with a deal but that doesn't mean she'd blindly vote for anything because that isn't necessarily in her constituents interest either.
I am not saying she will definitely vote against but there are more reasons for even a leavey MP to do so than as a favour to Corbyn.
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
If it looks like March would they not wait until May and have it on the same day as the locals? Tories and Labour would probs prefer that as it could save them a few council seats...
I'm not sure. Once we have no no deal then there really is no reason for the opposition to bite the hand off an election offer. Nick's "mildly embarrasing" wouldn't cover any attempt to delay further imo.
Christmas & winter are just about plausible excuses... Labour need another 1962/3 winter! ❄❄❄
62/63 didn't kick off till boxing day so won't save them for a 2019 vote
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it may loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification.
As the poll shows fewer Northern Irish voters favour unification without a hard border
You are displaying your ignorance again. While I appreciate you have just spent a week on the North Antrim coast (drinking plenty of Bushmills I hope) sadly your understanding of the geopolitics of Ireland remains lacking.
Let's try to use your own words to see if that might help you to understand. We should focus on the following: "loosen ties between GB and NI". Do you therefore think that aligning NI with the RoI would strengthen the ties between NI and RoI? Do you think strengthening such ties could be seen as a move to further strengthening as and when those two territories together further separate from Great Britain?
Strengthened ties between North and South is a good thing as it avoids the decades of civil war and terrorism Ireland had during the Troubles which my visit brought home to me again and which you have ignored.
However you can have strengthened ties and no hard border and still see NI technically part of the UK
No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
I doubt very much it is genuine. It is theatre to help the deal pass - the right thing to do from their perspective. Revealing their genuine thoughts on our PM may not be very productive.
With Baker, Bridgen and Francois on board I think the only ERG wavering are IDS and Patterson and you've got to assume they will back the deal. If there are 5 of the whipless Tories who oppose the deal (Gubb, Grieve, Greening, Rudd, Sandbach?) then I think if Boris can win round double figures of Lab rebels it should squeeze through (12 to be certain).
Owen Patterson ! Is he still trying to do that trade deal with Oklahoma ?
In fairness to Owen there's been a lot less flooding since we voted to leave the EU
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
You're mad as a box of frogs.
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
I think Labour rebels will be limited in number, but perhaps as many as 15, mostly people like Gloria de Piero who are retiring anyway and feel what the hell. It is IMO clearly in Labour's interest to defeat the deal (and any Labour MPs who vote for it will be deselected by members without the leadership needing to twitch a finger), but I'm not sure the retirees care that much - her caustic response to Umunna urging Labour loyalty is amusing and telling. So it should pass unless there's more ERG opposition than currently seems likely.
I doubt if the Opposition will then go along with an early election in the first flush of post-Brexit relief - excuses will be found, and we're probably really looking at March. Yes, mildly embarrassing, but nothing that will be remembered months ahead.
Thanks for the up-to-date estimate - seems it's gone from around 20 to the original five or six and now we're back up to 15. Certainly tense times. But if the deal passes, the entirely legitimate imo reasons to delay a GE then evaporate. There will be nowhere to hide for the opposition and I would condone Boris using every available option to get a GE pronto including calling a VONC in his own government. This is aside also from the potential for many of those Cons who left to return.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
If it looks like March would they not wait until May and have it on the same day as the locals? Tories and Labour would probs prefer that as it could save them a few council seats...
I'm not sure. Once we have no no deal then there really is no reason for the opposition to bite the hand off an election offer. Nick's "mildly embarrasing" wouldn't cover any attempt to delay further imo.
Christmas & winter are just about plausible excuses... Labour need another 1962/3 winter! ❄❄❄
62/63 didn't kick off till boxing day so won't save them for a 2019 vote
Seumas like Corbyn will be quietly delighted if this passes.
He won't when he sees more Labour Remainers go LD
There will be no such thing as Remainers from 1 November.
Liberal Internationalists then. They have the choice of two xenophobic parties. It’s the only place for them to go.
I'm a liberal internationalist and voted out (and normally vote Tory) . I like foreigners, I just don't think the EU is the best way of engaging with them, and that it is too inward-looking and protectionist. (Plus number of other things not on the internationalist-xenophobe axis) The Remain insistence on calling Brexiters xenophobes simply activated a "screw you" element to voting Leave, and also meant it failed to push messages that might have persuaded me to vote Remain, for example telling me how many big free trade deals were in the pipeline.
If the deal fails it won't lead to no Brexit it will lead to a GE and a huge Cons majority and then Brexit.
And thus BoJo wants it to fail IYO?
Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather thsn be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
You keep saying that but that doesn’t make it true.
Oh it does, indeed Peter Robinson from the DUP was even in discussions with loyalist paramilitaries about declaring UDI over the Anglo Irish Agreement
The U.K. is a bastion of democratic and liberal values. We are a force for good in the world. I am saddened that you look forward to that being diminished
we are probably the most illiberal country (currently) in the EU behind Hungary.
Only in your head.
In the real world the UK is the only large EU country in the 'top 10' of most liberal countries in the world and is one of the 6 out of the 28 to make the top 10:
Of the top 10 most liberal countries in the world, more than half the people resident in them live in the UK.
If you are comparing countries qua countries, then filtering by size is skewing the sample: there are only about five large countries in he EU, so by adding that modifier you skew things. If you want to do people and countries, then yes absolute numbers are important, but you should also include relative ones. I frequently express this as "numbers, percentages, thresholds"
If the deal fails it won't lead to no Brexit it will lead to a GE and a huge Cons majority and then Brexit.
And thus BoJo wants it to fail IYO?
Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
The DUP can't be looking forward to an election either.
No matter what happens to the deal the sight of Boris being applauded by the EU leaders as he took his seat at the Council meeting was extraordinary. There does seem to be genuine appreciation for his efforts in the EU and bodes well for future discussions
I doubt very much it is genuine. It is theatre to help the deal pass - the right thing to do from their perspective. Revealing their genuine thoughts on our PM may not be very productive.
Is there not just a little part of you that may see that the EU leaders appreciation shown yesterday was tinged with relief they had achieved a deal against the odds
I'm a bit conflicted about what happens next in that:
On the one hand Boris has a triumph, and the golden rule of brexit is that if you've had a triumph, it's going to blow up hilariously in your face. On the other, Bercow is big with US audiences, and the scriptwriters must be tempted to pass the deal with his casting vote.
So I congratulated you a little too soon yesterday as it turns out
It was PR to help Johnson sell the Deal. There WILL be an extension if the Deal fails. Just that this time it will have to be for a specific event, GE or Ref2.
Still QUITE an astute call though - since although they don't have the stomach to kick us out thoughts clearly turned that way in certain quarters.
Who says there will be an extension? Luxembourg and France seem quite against it and Parliament seems unable to agree a referendum.
I fully expect Boris to stand up tomorrow and say something like.
"My fantastic team of negotiators have done what was thought impossible. They have laboured like Hercules, and have indeed swept the Augean stables. Although admittedly, not in a day. It has taken them weeks and week of hard graft. But they have come back with a Deal. A very fine Deal. A Deal that I am delighted to commend to this Hoouse.
To those who think they can defer, kick the can up the road, find another delay in their Remainer Micawberesque hope that Something Will Turn UP, I say this: I have spoken to the heads of state of the EU counries. They want this done. The only grounds upon whch they will consider any extension would be for an election called in the next few days. Now, having seen the recent opinion polls and by-election results, I can see why the Party opposite are frit of the voters. So that is ruled out. For now.
Which means everyone in this House faces a stark choice. Approve this Deal now. Or wander out into the dark, unforgiving night of No Deal. Because they are your two options. Thinking that the EU will support never-ending extensions is a fiction. A fiction with a most unhappy ending..."
The only issue with the EU saying before Johnson "we will not reopen the WA" to only reopen if for Johnson, now Corbyn can say respond "well, they reopened negotiation for you, they'll do so for me" and if Johnson responds "no they won't" Johnson becomes the one "surrendering".
But yes, I see your version of a speech is likely, and that will be the framing attempted. I think the vote may just miss squeezing through, but we shall see.
Logical_Song said: "If Corbyn holds the keys to whether and when an election happens, then the EU can't make the extension dependent on the holding of an election. "
1) Corbyn does hold the keys 2) The EU can not dictate to us when to hold a GE. Can you imagine!
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather than be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
You're mad as a box of frogs.
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
Hong Kong would probably still prefer independence now to being forced to remain part of China.
London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
That's my take too. He's playing a blinder politically.
But my question is which IYO is BETTER for his in any case good GE prospects? -
Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.
I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.
The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
Not really , it’s just insurance to get the legislation through . They only agreed to rush things through to help Johnson but you should note Guy V , he said the EU parliament will only start the process of ratification once the legislation has passed in the UK .
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
You seem to have ignored the comments coming out of the EU this morning.
The Commission via Juncker has said it will pass in time for the 31st leaving date
There will not be a delay for continuing stonewalling.
The only delay would be if a GE was required
The Letwin amendment is nothing to do with any intention to stonewall. Letwin backs, and will vote for Boris’s deal. The amendment is designed to give reassurance to reluctant backers of the deal that having voted for it, no one can game the system to stall enabling legislation between now and the end of the month in order to force a no deal Brexit. I am pretty sure that the EU would be of the same mind.
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
You are fighting yesterday's battles (metaphorically - you obviously don't actually fight anything).
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
No it is not, it msy loosen ties between GB and NI but is not a step towards unification whereas a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland would have been a giant leap towards unification
The reunification of Ireland is a matter of when not if. Demographics is seeing to that.
Not in County Antrim which is still strongly Protestant and Unionist and would declare UDI rather thsn be forced into the Republic of Ireland against its will
You keep saying that but that doesn’t make it true.
Oh it does, indeed Peter Robinson from the DUP was even in discussions with loyalist paramilitaries about declaring UDI over the Anglo Irish Agreement
That would be the same Peter Robinson who said last year that unionists should start contemplating unification and that "as soon as that decision is taken every democrat will have to accept that decision"?
- Boris's Deal scrapes through and we leave on 31 October. - Jezza agrees to a December 12th election cos he's got nowhere to hide. - Arcuri scandal blows up mid-campaign and Boris forced to resign. - Tories turn to Hunt who wins narrow majority.
Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
Yes. The transistion period until the end of 2020 triggers and nothing changes
I wonder how many extensions there will be to the transition period. That, surely, will be when the fireworks really start!
I'll cease to be a Remainer and become a Transitionista!
I could live with unending Transition
I doubt that many Brexit supporters will be so happy though. When it dawns on them that we are still following EU laws and there has been no change to freedom of movement, I imagine there will be a lot of drift back to the Brexit Party, or whatever Farage's vehicle is called then.
Re the Letwin alleged amendment to keep Benn until legislation waib all passed. If Boris is extra smart he will accept that as a sign of good faith to labour waverers
If he doesn’t accept this amendment then he clearly cares more about his stupid pledge than a deal being ratified.
I can’t see any problem with a short extension to just make sure there are no last minute dramas with the WAIB.
I think you may find the EU does. Multiple sources from the EU have said that they will not grant an extension just to carry on talking and even saying that if the deal falls tomorrow the UK government should bring it back next week in order to meet the 31st deadline.
The EU will see this as another delaying tactic
Not really , it’s just insurance to get the legislation through . They only agreed to rush things through to help Johnson but you should note Guy V , he said the EU parliament will only start the process of ratification once the legislation has passed in the UK .
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
You seem to have ignored the comments coming out of the EU this morning.
The Commission via Juncker has said it will pass in time for the 31st leaving date
There will not be a delay for continuing stonewalling.
The only delay would be if a GE was required
The Letwin amendment is nothing to do with any intention to stonewall. Letwin backs, and will vote for Boris’s deal. The amendment is designed to give reassurance to reluctant backers of the deal that having voted for it, no one can game the system to stall enabling legislation between now and the end of the month in order to force a no deal Brexit. I am pretty sure that the EU would be of the same mind.
As long as it is not designed to stop brexit on the 31st I am happy with it
of the 26 Lab MPs who signed a letter opposing a 2nd ref it seems they are all keeping rather quiet. The biggest bonus for Boris is Ronnie Campbell voting for the deal as he wasn't on that list and is a rather unexpected win.
Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
We're into transition then so nothing will change.
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?
Yes. And having to pay money in.
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
Sadly for you I think Boris is sitting pretty. I had previously thought that his do or die quote would trip him up but the momentum is for him right now and if the ERG can now embrace a measure which they helped to outlaw a matter of months ago then perhaps the only people who will be angry with Boris for missing his deadline will be Nigel Farage and perhaps three of his mates.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
That's my take too. He's playing a blinder politically.
But my question is which IYO is BETTER for his in any case good GE prospects? -
(i) Deal passed - GE.
(ii) Deal rejected - GE.
(iii) Deal passed subject to a confirmatory referendum must still be a small chance.
- Boris's Deal scrapes through and we leave on 31 October. - Jezza agrees to a December 12th election cos he's got nowhere to hide. - Arcuri scandal blows up mid-campaign and Boris forced to resign. - Tories turn to Hunt who wins narrow majority.
When was the last time a Prime Minister had to resign over a "scandal" ?
Ok, quick roundup @Cyclefree, thank you for the response, but I wanted an answer. @moonshine : I still don't know how to buy a short. I now know EFT is electronic find transfer, but I don't know how to dbuy a short one. @Balrog : thank you again about the TransferWise suggestion (was it you?) @isam: did you see my question last night about the value of NoDeal?
Assuming the deal is passed by parliament on Saturday and the UK leaves the EU on 31/10, what actually changes on that date? Will, for example, EHIC cards still be valid? Will there still be free movement between the UK and the EU?
We're into transition then so nothing will change.
So still subject to all EU laws, but no more representation or involvement in EU decision-making?
Yes. And having to pay money in.
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
... much better than May's deal which had a terrible backstop for them.
Comments
It is noteworthy that Corbyn's fellow traveller Dennis Skinner voted FOR leaving the EU without a deal, but AGAINST on MV1 and abstained on MV2 (struggling to see how he voted for MV3). Can Skinner countenance walking through the lobby for a Tory deal?
http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/08/19/news/support-for-border-in-irish-sea-increasing-poll-shows-1687869/
56% of Northern Irish voters favoured a United Ireland if there was a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html
No Deal would have meant a hard border, certainly from the Republic of Ireland side and as required by WTO rules
The WAIB could be quite controversial. And could cause issues . And why would MPs trust either Johnson or the ERG .
The public want this finished, the EU want this finished - the notion of this dragging on for another 6-12 months is anathema to so many Boris will be polling 50%+ if he goes around pointing out this blindly obvious fact.
Unfortunately, the public also now want to give Boris the credit for ending the nightmare which is completely undeserved but that's how it is. He will deliver on his promise of taking us out of the EU on 31/10 - he won't because we will be in transition until 31/12/20 and there's the not inconsiderable matter of the PD to resolve but no one is seeing that truth. All they see is a Deal and we are out on 31/10.
1. Engineer May out.
2. Get the job.
3. Win a GE and cement power.
Do and say whatever it takes to achieve each of the above. Use all instruments available. Brexit is merely of them.
1 and 2, mission accomplished.
3 is work-in-progress but right now is looking good.
Lab are in a bad place, electorally, right now.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184943438371983361?s=20
That was before they dicked around trying to block a hard-fought Brexit deal.
https://twitter.com/GloriaDePiero/status/1184592861179863040
This is her only mention of how she might vote on it (on twitter anyway) so far, looks like she is leaning against.
"Speaking on BBC's This Week programme, Mr Portillo made a prediction on how he thinks Mr Johnson would resolve the UK's Brexit deadlock.
"Theresa May was offered a backstop that applied only to Northern Ireland, and she got worried about that because she thought that separated Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom," he said.
"She insisted on a backstop that involved the whole of the United Kingdom. That then set the Brexiteers against her, because they said now we're locked into a permanent Customs Union.
"The way out of this is to go back to the Northern Ireland-only backstop and to obtain the consent of the Northern Ireland people, I would say through a referendum in Northern Ireland.
"They will give it, I think, because they don't want to go back to a border, and they want to have free trade with the Republic."
This Week presenter Andrew Neil pointed out that "Mr Johnson isn't talking about any of this", to which Mr Portillo replied: "No I know, but he'll get there." "
https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2019/06/15/news/michael-portillo-makes-prediction-over-boris-johnson-s-brexit-backstop-plan-1642500/
The Commission via Juncker has said it will pass in time for the 31st leaving date
There will not be a delay for continuing stonewalling.
The only delay would be if a GE was required
Yes, like you have always said, THERE WILL NOT BE A BORDER IN IRELAND.
And like I have always said, NO DEAL BREXIT WAS NEVER A RUNNER.
(Top) hats off us.
If Labour want to run from an election until March, then that's 5-6 months which the Tories need to hammer home the 'Corbyn is frit' message every day and night.
And you know what. It'll be true
What is different between this deal and the prior one is it requires ongoing consent from Belfast. NI's voters will retain the right to regularly vote for Stormont and if they ever vote a majority on a pledge to exit these arrangements then that simple majority will be able to enact the mandate given to them. That is the difference, that is acceptable.
This arrangement continues so long as a simple majority wish it too and for so long as NI's voters elect a simple majority wanting it to continue - the minority haven't lost their rights they've just lost the election, I'm OK with minorities losing elections, I'm not OK with them not having the elections in the first place.
No Deal...woulda, shoulda, coulda. Are you saying that more or less than 56% of Northern Irish voters would favour a United Ireland without a hard border!!
Let me put it simply for you: as I have been saying on here constanly, there is no British PM that could countenance the return of a hard border in NI and so it has proved. The deal that our current PM has come up with separates off NI and lets it align with the RoI and puts a hard border in the Irish Sea between NI and GB. That is a step towards unification.
As the poll shows fewer Northern Irish voters favour unification without a hard border
I could live with unending Transition
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12086367/Leaving-the-EU-will-protect-UK-from-flooding-says-Owen-Paterson.html
It could make Scotland WANT independence more but at the same time make the practicalities of independence more difficult to achieve.
In short, it stuffs Scotland both ways.
Much glee in certain circles about this, no doubt.
"My fantastic team of negotiators have done what was thought impossible. They have laboured like Hercules, and have indeed swept the Augean stables. Although admittedly, not in a day. It has taken them weeks and week of hard graft. But they have come back with a Deal. A very fine Deal. A Deal that I am delighted to commend to this Hoouse.
To those who think they can defer, kick the can up the road, find another delay in their Remainer Micawberesque hope that Something Will Turn UP, I say this: I have spoken to the heads of state of the EU counries. They want this done. The only grounds upon whch they will consider any extension would be for an election called in the next few days. Now, having seen the recent opinion polls and by-election results, I can see why the Party opposite are frit of the voters. So that is ruled out. For now.
Which means everyone in this House faces a stark choice. Approve this Deal now. Or wander out into the dark, unforgiving night of No Deal. Because they are your two options. Thinking that the EU will support never-ending extensions is a fiction. A fiction with a most unhappy ending..."
Let's try to use your own words to see if that might help you to understand. We should focus on the following: "loosen ties between GB and NI". Do you therefore think that aligning NI with the RoI would strengthen the ties between NI and RoI? Do you think strengthening such ties could be seen as a move to further strengthening as and when those two territories together further separate from Great Britain?
I am not saying she will definitely vote against but there are more reasons for even a leavey MP to do so than as a favour to Corbyn.
However you can have strengthened ties and no hard border and still see NI technically part of the UK
https://twitter.com/BBCIsleofMan/status/1179318639658446848?s=20
County Antrim would be like rump Hong Kong in 1997.
If NI votes for unification then London will respect that. NI will not be a part of the UK. So if Country Antrim were to declare UDI it would have to do that as an independent country not as a part of the United Kingdom which would no longer accept it following a vote.
All roads lead to a GE wherein I believe Lab will be spanked.
http://www.irishnews.com/paywall/tsb/irishnews/irishnews/irishnews//news/2016/12/30/news/british-believed-peter-robinson-plotting-to-declare-independent-state--856630/content.html
On the one hand Boris has a triumph, and the golden rule of brexit is that if you've had a triumph, it's going to blow up hilariously in your face. On the other, Bercow is big with US audiences, and the scriptwriters must be tempted to pass the deal with his casting vote.
But yes, I see your version of a speech is likely, and that will be the framing attempted. I think the vote may just miss squeezing through, but we shall see.
1) Corbyn does hold the keys
2) The EU can not dictate to us when to hold a GE. Can you imagine!
London may respect a Northern Ireland vote for unification with the Republic of Ireland, the DUP and loyalist paramilitaries would not and would do as Iain Smith did in Rhodesia and form an Independent Protestant state in Antrim, only with the majority of the population behind them
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow
But my question is which IYO is BETTER for his in any case good GE prospects? -
(i) Deal passed - GE.
(ii) Deal rejected - GE.
Letwin backs, and will vote for Boris’s deal. The amendment is designed to give reassurance to reluctant backers of the deal that having voted for it, no one can game the system to stall enabling legislation between now and the end of the month in order to force a no deal Brexit.
I am pretty sure that the EU would be of the same mind.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-should-prepare-for-united-ireland-possibility-ex-dup-leader-1.3578620
- Boris's Deal scrapes through and we leave on 31 October.
- Jezza agrees to a December 12th election cos he's got nowhere to hide.
- Arcuri scandal blows up mid-campaign and Boris forced to resign.
- Tories turn to Hunt who wins narrow majority.
The reason the EU wants this done is that it's a bloody good deal for them, even better than May's deal.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
@Cyclefree, thank you for the response, but I wanted an answer.
@moonshine : I still don't know how to buy a short. I now know EFT is electronic find transfer, but I don't know how to dbuy a short one.
@Balrog : thank you again about the TransferWise suggestion (was it you?)
@isam: did you see my question last night about the value of NoDeal?