politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’
Comments
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It was in the manifesto.isam said:
Some of them did, the ones people have heard of... didn't.Nigelb said:
Yawn.MarqueeMark said:
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.Nigelb said:
Their electoral argument is quite clear.MarqueeMark said:
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers said there is no need for prorogation
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.0 -
Yes, it is a slightly worse deal than the old one. Too complex on NI, and not enough to protect UK industry in the political declaration. But the latter is of course potentially up for change later when we get down to the serious discussions.Nigelb said:
I'd tend to agree with you, Richard. Though I think the NI part of the agreement considerably messier than the May deal, and that could have consequences.Richard_Nabavi said:
All of which, except for the Stormont agreement bit (which could probably have been agreed two years ago), was in the EU's original proposal for how to deal with the Irish border issue, which Boris rejected at the time because it requires some customs checks in the Irish Sea.Gabs2 said:They didn't concede everything. They got the level playing field excluded from the WA, a NI decision on the arrangements every four years, and the whole UK outside the Customs Union and benefitting from trade deals.
But, hey, I don't mind. This is theatre (a farce, as it happens) designed to con the ERGers into voting for exactly what they previously railed against. If Boris can bring off that betrayal without losing too many of them, then great. If he can bring it off whilst also ridding the party of a few of the more bonkers ones, then even better.0 -
Nonsense spin. Northern Ireland has the most privileged position in the UK now. It will get the benefits of both frictionless access to the single market AND tariff reductions from UK trade deals AND a big package of aid from UK/ROI/EU AND the choice to leave every four years. Northern Ireland would be mad to leave the union now.Nigelb said:
Boris has put Boris before every other consideration. That should not be a surprise.Stocky said:stodge says: "Boris has handed the EU a huge victory. Dropping the backstop in favour of a border in the Irish Sea is exactly what the EU wanted originally so they have enthusiastically signed up to it."
Boris has put Brexit before 31/10 ahead of the Union. Shame.0 -
That'd just lead to Parliament revoking.Andy_Cooke said:Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
Surely they wouldn't be so stupid? The likes of Mark Franc … oh, wait.2 -
Nah. They want to stay MPs.Andy_Cooke said:Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
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Good afternoon, everyone.0
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Meaningful Vote to pass this year
UK to leave by 31 Oct
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Or 29% /30% according to Comres /Panelbase.MarqueeMark said:
And now he'll get his election, but on around 20% in the polls......TheKingofLangley said:
Varies I'd say. Some are remainers who can't/won't accept the result. Others are tribal and won't support any deal negotiated by Boris. Corbyn's plan I think has been to string the whole thing out as long as possible to try and force an election but this far that hasn't worked.AndyJS said:What are the reasons for Labour opposing the deal?
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It wasn't in Heidi Allen's, or Chuka Umunna's, or Sarah Wollastons, or Angela Smith's...Nigelb said:
It was in the manifesto.isam said:
Some of them did, the ones people have heard of... didn't.Nigelb said:
Yawn.MarqueeMark said:
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.Nigelb said:
Their electoral argument is quite clear.MarqueeMark said:
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers said there is no need for prorogation
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.0 -
Yes, it is. It makes NI potentially way more competitive than ROI. Lower taxes on goods and lower regulation on services. The EU has moved a lot. Varadkar deserves a lot of credit.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those differences are just fudge laid over the fundamentals. If the UK wants to put in place a complex system for NI businesses to reclaim some tariff differences (if there are any eventually, which I doubt), then it's no big deal to the EU, is it?Gabs2 said:
No, it wasn't. The original EU proposal had Northern Ireland fully in the customs union (no benefit from UK tariff reductions), the single market (not just agrifood/industrial products) and tax system (not just goods). It also had level playing field in the WA.0 -
They can’t see a Budget fall and then not no confidence him. They’d look ridiculous.nichomar said:
If deal goes through why would any of the opposition parties go for an early election, leave Johnson where he is where he can’t do anymore harm and see how it goes.Time_to_Leave said:Re: An election. It’s simple isn’t it? Absent EU issues, a VONC means an election, since we know Corbyn doesn’t command a majority. The QS or the Budget will lead to an opportunity to call one (Boris can allow the SNP or LibDems to table one).
Therefore, if there is a deal we’ll have an election, but if it’s over the Budget rather than the QS then it has to be next year. A VONC after losing the QS might just about still mean first week of Dec.
Edit - assuming Corbyn would not just whip for the 2/3 and back his campaigning.0 -
At some point, reality means this bollocks of "Boris only thinks of Boris" will end. He has thought of 17.4m. He has thought of democracy. Which is more than many in Westminster have done, especially on the Labour side.Nigelb said:
Boris has put Boris before every other consideration. That should not be a surprise.Stocky said:stodge says: "Boris has handed the EU a huge victory. Dropping the backstop in favour of a border in the Irish Sea is exactly what the EU wanted originally so they have enthusiastically signed up to it."
Boris has put Brexit before 31/10 ahead of the Union. Shame.2 -
All hail the conquering hero!CarlottaVance said:0 -
One of the things that made it difficult for May to sell a deal was that days like today tended to be marred by a resignation, which immediately put the focus onto opposition to whatever progress had been achieved.
Not even a whisper of a resignation so far today. That's an interesting diagnostic of the prospects for Johnson's deal.0 -
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If an election were called as a result of the Deal dailing to clear Parliament, it seems unlikely that an extension would be refused to allow the election to be held.Nigelb said:
No, I think the balance of probabilities is that they would reject a further extension.justin124 said:
But even if the EU were to say something along those lines, there would be no reason to believe they would stick to that view. How many times did it repeat that May's WA was not going to be re-opened. Pragmatic real politics would intervene were there to be a change of UK government.MarqueeMark said:
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."Henry_C said:First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
So the Benn Act will apply.
Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
Of course, its essentially unknowable for sure what they would do until they were faced with the decision. But it does mean that the opposition rejecting the deal are forced to contemplate the possibility of either No Deal or revoke.0 -
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184828305670901761logical_song said:
Well, it depends what happens.Freggles said:Cummings is going to be unbearable, isn't he?
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?0 -
It's only Labour that don't want an election. An amendment of the FTPA allowing a GE could get through on a simple majority. SNP, LibDems happy to oblige......nichomar said:
If deal goes through why would any of the opposition parties go for an early election, leave Johnson where he is where he can’t do anymore harm and see how it goes.Time_to_Leave said:Re: An election. It’s simple isn’t it? Absent EU issues, a VONC means an election, since we know Corbyn doesn’t command a majority. The QS or the Budget will lead to an opportunity to call one (Boris can allow the SNP or LibDems to table one).
Therefore, if there is a deal we’ll have an election, but if it’s over the Budget rather than the QS then it has to be next year. A VONC after losing the QS might just about still mean first week of Dec.
Edit - assuming Corbyn would not just whip for the 2/3 and back his campaigning.0 -
Nigel Farage now making his last stand on defence of the Benn Act! Boris has run rings round him and forced him to look ridiculous.Scott_P said:0 -
Who knows ? Which is rather the point (FWIW, I'd put it around 50/50, but that's a pure guess).justin124 said:
If an election were called as a result of the Deal dailing to clear Parliament, it seems unlikely that an extension would be refused to allow the election to be held.Nigelb said:
No, I think the balance of probabilities is that they would reject a further extension.justin124 said:
But even if the EU were to say something along those lines, there would be no reason to believe they would stick to that view. How many times did it repeat that May's WA was not going to be re-opened. Pragmatic real politics would intervene were there to be a change of UK government.MarqueeMark said:
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
Of course, its essentially unknowable for sure what they would do until they were faced with the decision. But it does mean that the opposition rejecting the deal are forced to contemplate the possibility of either No Deal or revoke.
Katya Adler is a quite fair minded analyst, and has her doubts, too:
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/11848326654401290240 -
Not after he dicks about blocking a deal with the EU......justin124 said:
Or 29% /30% according to Comres /Panelbase.MarqueeMark said:
And now he'll get his election, but on around 20% in the polls......TheKingofLangley said:
Varies I'd say. Some are remainers who can't/won't accept the result. Others are tribal and won't support any deal negotiated by Boris. Corbyn's plan I think has been to string the whole thing out as long as possible to try and force an election but this far that hasn't worked.AndyJS said:What are the reasons for Labour opposing the deal?
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Nigel Farage defending the Benn act. Seen it all now LLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL0
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Farage now a champion of the Benn Act.Scott_P said:
LOL.0 -
We can already see the pro-Johnson lobby spinning this as a victory for the great man and how only his leadership of the "greatest place on Earth" has made this possible but, like you, I can easily see through this nonsense.Richard_Nabavi said:
All of which, except for the Stormont agreement bit (which could probably have been agreed two years ago), was in the EU's original proposal for how to deal with the Irish border issue, which Boris rejected at the time because it requires some customs checks in the Irish Sea.Gabs2 said:They didn't concede everything. They got the level playing field excluded from the WA, a NI decision on the arrangements every four years, and the whole UK outside the Customs Union and benefitting from trade deals.
But, hey, I don't mind. This is theatre (a farce, as it happens) designed to con the ERGers into voting for exactly what they previously railed against. If Boris can bring off that betrayal without losing too many of them, then great. If he can bring it off whilst also ridding the party of a few of the more bonkers ones, then even better.
The EU have got most if not all of their original position from 2017 and we now have the vaguely amusing vignettes of Boris, JRM and the rest of the ERG trying to explain why a Deal which they couldn't support in January is now ideal in October.
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I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?0 -
Farage has genuinely got caught out here as not really wanting Brexit.
Who is next going to get exposed for telling porkie pies.
Roll up roll up.0 -
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Or we could have had Boris in much the same position as Gordon Brown two days after the 2010 GE shrugging his shoulders and saying "me? I'm just minding the shop until Corbyn, Swinson and Sturgeon sort their shit"Philip_Thompson said:Just think, we could have had an election earlier this week and if elected, PM Corbyn could have been heading to Europe today to request an extension in order to hold a referendum.
Wonder whether the Remainers Against an Election have realised they screwed up?
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As I understand it the DUP have only said that they won't support the deal, not that they would oppose it; makes quite a big difference to the Parliamentary maths.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184828305670901761logical_song said:
Well, it depends what happens.Freggles said:Cummings is going to be unbearable, isn't he?
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?
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Has someone screenshotted the Farage tweet, he's bound to take it down shortly.0
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Is it possible that the DUP could abstain rather than vote against?0
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they will take the money and just whingeGabs2 said:
Nonsense spin. Northern Ireland has the most privileged position in the UK now. It will get the benefits of both frictionless access to the single market AND tariff reductions from UK trade deals AND a big package of aid from UK/ROI/EU AND the choice to leave every four years. Northern Ireland would be mad to leave the union now.Nigelb said:
Boris has put Boris before every other consideration. That should not be a surprise.Stocky said:stodge says: "Boris has handed the EU a huge victory. Dropping the backstop in favour of a border in the Irish Sea is exactly what the EU wanted originally so they have enthusiastically signed up to it."
Boris has put Brexit before 31/10 ahead of the Union. Shame.0 -
One thing that Boris proves is the power of personality. He has one, May doesn't, and in doing something like a Brexit deal having a personality counts more than brains.1
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We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?0 -
A lot of Labour MPs will abstain too, IMHO. Even if Corbyn won't make that the party line, they can still blame a "Tory Brexit" in their election literature, without pissing off their voters by blocking a deal.TudorRose said:
As I understand it the DUP have only said that they won't support the deal, not that they would oppose it; makes quite a big difference to the Parliamentary maths.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184828305670901761logical_song said:
Well, it depends what happens.Freggles said:Cummings is going to be unbearable, isn't he?
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?0 -
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184838696039862274
Is this a joke?
Honestly, I don't know anymore.0 -
And ?isam said:
It wasn't in Heidi Allen's, or Chuka Umunna's, or Sarah Wollastons, or Angela Smith's...Nigelb said:
It was in the manifesto.isam said:
Some of them did, the ones people have heard of... didn't.Nigelb said:
Yawn.MarqueeMark said:
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.Nigelb said:
Their electoral argument is quite clear.MarqueeMark said:
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers said there is no need for prorogation
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.0 -
Cummings has utterly routed Farage today.1
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Juncker also looked like he had indulged himself in a rather large celebratory liquid lunch.CarlottaVance said:
Bon Appetit!0 -
Ronnie Campbell didn't vote for MV3 and has said he'd vote for this deal now. So that leaves six more to find, though could be less required if there are abstentions as last time.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184828305670901761logical_song said:
Well, it depends what happens.Freggles said:Cummings is going to be unbearable, isn't he?
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?0 -
Have “People’s Vote MPs” actually achieved anything?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184838696039862274
Is this a joke?
Honestly, I don't know anymore.0 -
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They've explicitly said they will vote *against*.TudorRose said:
As I understand it the DUP have only said that they won't support the deal, not that they would oppose it; makes quite a big difference to the Parliamentary maths.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184828305670901761logical_song said:
Well, it depends what happens.Freggles said:Cummings is going to be unbearable, isn't he?
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?0 -
There will be 2-5 Tory rebels. Patterson for example.OblitusSumMe said:
Ronnie Campbell didn't vote for MV3 and has said he'd vote for this deal now. So that leaves six more to find, though could be less required if there are abstentions as last time.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184828305670901761logical_song said:
Well, it depends what happens.Freggles said:Cummings is going to be unbearable, isn't he?
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?0 -
Mrs M could resign in protest that her deal was better? Just for the lolz of course0
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Better to wait for the 31st of Never?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184838696039862274
Is this a joke?
Honestly, I don't know anymore.0 -
Re DUP, Anorak said: "They've explicitly said they will vote *against*."
Is this true? If no DUP then deal will surely not pass Commons.0 -
Kin hell.Pulpstar said:Nigel Farage defending the Benn act. Seen it all now LLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Always said Farage was a secret Remainer.0 -
Someone else indulging in a big liquid lunch?Pulpstar said:Has someone screenshotted the Farage tweet, he's bound to take it down shortly.
Loathsome pillock. I have NEVER stinted in my contempt for Farage, in all my time on pb.com.0 -
Now is not the time.solarflare said:
Better to wait for the 31st of Never?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184838696039862274
Is this a joke?
Honestly, I don't know anymore.0 -
Would be pretty silly after everything they have saidoxfordsimon said:Is it possible that the DUP could abstain rather than vote against?
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Naomi Long just took the BBC to school over their lack of comprehension on NI. Laid out clearly exactly how ludicrous the DUP position is.1
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i refer you to my comments on Farage earlier on this thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
Kin hell.Pulpstar said:Nigel Farage defending the Benn act. Seen it all now LLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Always said Farage was a secret Remainer.0 -
Benn just told Sky he would vote for the Johnson Deal of the Century, if a Ref was attached.Pulpstar said:
Now is not the time.solarflare said:
Better to wait for the 31st of Never?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184838696039862274
Is this a joke?
Honestly, I don't know anymore.
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In the 1980s or 1990s psychologists made an interesting finding regarding homophobes.
They opposed equal rights (marriage, next of kin status, etc) for gay people. As would be expected. But if informed beforehand that gay people opposed such rights, the homophobes were found to be in favour of them.1 -
I quite like the idea that UK law should oblige the EU to keep the UK in their club. It is a completely ridiculous argument even if you ignore the hypocrisy.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
According to this:Stocky said:Re DUP, Anorak said: "They've explicitly said they will vote *against*."
Is this true? If no DUP then deal will surely not pass Commons.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1184800415948460038
Though struggling to find a second source, or a statement from a DUP member stating the same thing.0 -
There's idiots on both ends of the spectrum.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11848411189130444800 -
Referendum on deal or no-deal then, works for me.rottenborough said:
Benn just told Sky he would vote for the Johnson Deal of the Century, if a Ref was attached.
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Abstention would be smart. It protects them from UUP attacks while getting the privileged status for Northern Ireland.Anorak said:
According to this:Stocky said:Re DUP, Anorak said: "They've explicitly said they will vote *against*."
Is this true? If no DUP then deal will surely not pass Commons.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1184800415948460038
Though struggling to find a second source, or a statement from a DUP member stating the same thing.0 -
If the deal now fails in parliament due to "remainer opposition" then its unlikely the EU would actually refuse an extension. This deal may satisfy them but having the UK call the whole thing off is still a better long term prize for the EU, in budgetary terms as well as the political message that leaving is a failure. they would still grant one. Of course they have already said many times "no more extensions" but the key thing is it doesn't actually cost them anything apart from a bit of annoyance at dragging the process out, whereas vetoing an extension carries more risks.
I had been thinking Boris would get his deal through parliament just, but the DUP saying no may swing it the other way. Will be very close for sure.1 -
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?0 -
Whether Junker is right that the EU will refuse any further extension is irrelevent for the moment. The political point is he is helpfully parroting Johnson talking points as was Barnier this morning. They are helping sell the deal. In fairness they did exactly the same re May's. But they want this to pass and are trying to help. That's the politics of it.1
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In this case I think the spectrum is circular, and there are idiots at random points around it.TheScreamingEagles said:There's idiots on both ends of the spectrum.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11848411189130444800 -
What does that make Jolyon with his attempt to prevent Parliament from even discussing the deal?TheScreamingEagles said:There's idiots on both ends of the spectrum.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11848411189130444800 -
If the EU does adhere to Juncker's 'no further extensions' line why would the hard-Brexiteers vote for the Boris Deal when the alternative is a No Deal WTO exit?0
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So, to be clear:
Nigel Farage wants us to remain in the EU, and
The People's Vote lot don't want a People's Vote.
Fuck it, I'm out.3 -
Fascist dictator?RobD said:
What does that make Jolyon with his attempt to prevent Parliament from even discussing the deal?TheScreamingEagles said:There's idiots on both ends of the spectrum.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11848411189130444800 -
Political declaration not binding and assumes "good behaviour" on both sides. The EU would chuck it straight in the bin if the UK tried something like that - and we would deserve no better.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?0 -
The People's Vote lot don't think they can win a People's Vote vote on Saturday.Noo said:So, to be clear:
Nigel Farage wants us to remain in the EU, and
The People's Vote lot don't want a People's Vote.
Fuck it, I'm out.0 -
Maybe it's a bluff, maybe it isn't. Do they risk what could be the last shot of ever leaving?Benpointer said:If the EU does adhere to Juncker's 'no further extensions' line why would the hard-Brexiteers vote for the Boris Deal when the alternative is a No Deal WTO exit?
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Isn't that going to be covered by rules on 'Origin' in any FTA.Anorak said:
Political declaration not binding and assumes "good behaviour" on both sides. The EU would chuck it straight in the bin if the UK tried something like that - and we would deserve no better.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
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Any trade deal with NZ could be years after a trade deal with the EU. What legal safeguard would they have against it?Anorak said:
Political declaration not binding and assumes "good behaviour" on both sides. The EU would chuck it straight in the bin if the UK tried something like that - and we would deserve no better.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
Would it mean they would be looking for large concessions elsewhere to make up for it? Say on fisheries? Something else?0 -
People's Vote not pushing a second referendum on Super Saturday is their least worst option. 1. They don't have the numbers. 2. Unless MV4 goes down there will be no referendum anyway. So why overreach.
In short this is a car crash for Remainers. They have to save the patient by getting us into a Benn Act extension before doing fancy surgery. Not pushing a 2nd ref vote is smart triage.0 -
There do appear to be differences in the NI situation with alignment to UK and EU also consent. It can fairly be argued that it is not comparing apples with apples. The comparator may be Pears, Oranges, Avocados or just cooking apples. That will depend on the viewpoint, I suspect.TOPPING said:
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.Pulpstar said:Cummings has utterly routed Farage today.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.0 -
That Seamus Milne/Ian Lavery/Karie Murphy strategy in full:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/11848429252865802242 -
There is only a handful of ERG members who would follow that line. Even Peter Bone has said he will vote for itBenpointer said:If the EU does adhere to Juncker's 'no further extensions' line why would the hard-Brexiteers vote for the Boris Deal when the alternative is a No Deal WTO exit?
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Nigel has offered help.Yellow_Submarine said:People's Vote not pushing a second referendum on Super Saturday is their least worst option. 1. They don't have the numbers. 2. Unless MV4 goes down there will be no referendum anyway. So why overreach.
In short this is a car crash for Remainers. They have to save the patient by getting us into a Benn Act extension before doing fancy surgery. Not pushing a 2nd ref vote is smart triage.0 -
Benpointer said:
If the EU does adhere to Juncker's 'no further extensions' line why would the hard-Brexiteers vote for the Boris Deal when the alternative is a No Deal WTO exit?
They might well do that, but there will surely be many Labour abstensions if No Deal' is very much alive and on the table. The deal will pass to avoid a shoot out between No Deal and Revoke,Benpointer said:If the EU does adhere to Juncker's 'no further extensions' line why would the hard-Brexiteers vote for the Boris Deal when the alternative is a No Deal WTO exit?
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If you don't push for a referendum, what is the purpose of the extension? A little bit chicken and egg?Yellow_Submarine said:People's Vote not pushing a second referendum on Super Saturday is their least worst option. 1. They don't have the numbers. 2. Unless MV4 goes down there will be no referendum anyway. So why overreach.
In short this is a car crash for Remainers. They have to save the patient by getting us into a Benn Act extension before doing fancy surgery. Not pushing a 2nd ref vote is smart triage.0 -
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected.
Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?0 -
Ah, okay. So if you're outside the customs union you need to provide paperwork to prove where the goods originated from to avoid the scenario I posited. That paperwork being one of those non-tariff barriers people talk about.philiph said:
Isn't that going to be covered by rules on 'Origin' in any FTA.Anorak said:
Political declaration not binding and assumes "good behaviour" on both sides. The EU would chuck it straight in the bin if the UK tried something like that - and we would deserve no better.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
How much of a hassle for just-in-time manufacturing will that paperwork create?0 -
I thought that, but wasn't sure enough to put it in writing!philiph said:
Isn't that going to be covered by rules on 'Origin' in any FTA.Anorak said:
Political declaration not binding and assumes "good behaviour" on both sides. The EU would chuck it straight in the bin if the UK tried something like that - and we would deserve no better.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
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So it makesNigelb said:
And ?isam said:
It wasn't in Heidi Allen's, or Chuka Umunna's, or Sarah Wollastons, or Angela Smith's...Nigelb said:
It was in the manifesto.isam said:
Some of them did, the ones people have heard of... didn't.Nigelb said:
Yawn.MarqueeMark said:
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.Nigelb said:
Their electoral argument is quite clear.MarqueeMark said:
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers said there is no need for prorogation
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.
"They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis"
incorrect0 -
0
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Which is why I framed the answer as a query (without a ? at the end!) - I don't know but think and assume that is the case until some brainy person beats me about the head, tells me I'm stupid and gives me the right answer..Anorak said:
I thought that, but wasn't sure enough to put it in writing!philiph said:
Isn't that going to be covered by rules on 'Origin' in any FTA.Anorak said:
Political declaration not binding and assumes "good behaviour" on both sides. The EU would chuck it straight in the bin if the UK tried something like that - and we would deserve no better.OblitusSumMe said:
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?JohnLilburne said:
We can deal with other countriesOblitusSumMe said:I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
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Ulster says NO, not meh, we don't care.IanB2 said:
Would be pretty silly after everything they have saidoxfordsimon said:Is it possible that the DUP could abstain rather than vote against?
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Which is why the only way out of this for Labour is for Brexit to be done and in the rearview mirror. They can then start arguing about a US FTA where they will be united.rottenborough said:That Seamus Milne/Ian Lavery/Karie Murphy strategy in full:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/11848429252865802240 -
It is not just Juncker but the Belgium PM as well and also Macronsurbiton19 said:Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected.
Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Why on earth you think no deal exit will win the day.
If no extensions are confirmed later by the EU leaders then I expect the HOC to pass this deal0 -
If Johnson can get this through, then he can also get a GE. I'd say now, he will win 400 seats.0
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Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundantsurbiton19 said:Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected.
Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?0
