1. Parliament rejects the deal. 2. EU refuses extension. 3. VONC 4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other 5. Revoke A50 6. Referendum on Deal 7. Remain wins referendum
I still think that would be a massively tall order for the current HOC, which has struggled to find a majority for tying its own shoelaces so far.
1. Possible/likely 2. Possible (though I think they'd probably shift on this after an HOC No vote, and certainly if there was a new PM/GE/referendum in the offing) 3. Possible 4. Still massive issues over the identity of PM. 5. Possible if the EU's firm on no extension (though it does need those Lab leavers and Tory rebels to go somewhere deeply uncomfortable.)
Add 5a - GE to get a government stable enough to deliver step 6 (or a Tory majority to deliver Deal or No Deal in short order).
6. IMO can't be done by current HoC. Even if they could pass a law to insist on one, it needs a lot of work to deliver and someone running the country while it's done. 7. Possible/likely outcome.. but dependent on what happens in between (so quite a throw of the dice)
The willingness of Brexiteers to leap immediately upon a Juncker pronouncement as authoritative (& thus helpful to their cause) is quite the thing. Not calling him Druncker now, are ye?
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
Its clearly the government's preferred line - and it isn't up to Juncker but the 27, but its possible Boris can get a couple to opine that they'd veto it - it only needs one.
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
Its clearly the government's preferred line - and it isn't up to Juncker but the 27, but its possible Boris can get a couple to opine that they'd veto it - it only needs one.
Juncker wouldn't have said it without being squared with Macron/Merkel.
Regarding SandyRentools comments, if Commons voted down the deal and then won VONC and GNU and revoke - there would be utter uproar in the country. This really would be a coup.
1. Parliament rejects the deal. 2. EU refuses extension. 3. VONC 4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other 5. Revoke A50 6. Referendum on Deal 7. Remain wins referendum
8. Tories declare referendum illegitimate following Leaver boycott 9. General Election 10. Tories put Boris deal in their manifesto 11. Tories win big majority 12. We leave on Tory deal 13. Consevative government for 5 more years
The willingness of Brexiteers to leap immediately upon a Juncker pronouncement as authoritative (& thus helpful to their cause) is quite the thing. Not calling him Druncker now, are ye?
He’s a mess, but he’s not stupid. He knows what he’s said and he’s said it for a reason. The residual question is if it’s a line they all hold to and has a hook in the communique.
The willingness of Brexiteers to leap immediately upon a Juncker pronouncement as authoritative (& thus helpful to their cause) is quite the thing. Not calling him Druncker now, are ye?
It is not just Juncker other leaders are saying it as well
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
Its clearly the government's preferred line - and it isn't up to Juncker but the 27, but its possible Boris can get a couple to opine that they'd veto it - it only needs one.
If I understand correctly, Juncker is a member of the European Council and has a veto like all the others!
MarqueeMark: come on - admit it - you evil genius you.
Mwahahahahahaha..........
It's like an Agatha Christie Whodunnit....all the pieces were clearly on view. And I repeatedly pointed you to them. It's just that people didn't want that to be the murderer.....
Even if one believes that the EU would grant an extension in the reality of Parliament rejecting the deal, having them suggest otherwise beforehand provides plausible deniability for those Labour Leaver MPs who want to avoid No Deal and want a figleaf to vote for the deal.
However, as so often with Brexit, the other side of the equation are listening. If ERG MPs who are considering whether to accept this compromise come to believe that there will be no extension, come what may, they could be encouraged to vote against the deal in the hope of a no deal departure at the end of October.
If this gambit wins Johnson the 19-strong Kinnock group he still loses if 20 ERGers vote against.
Sean_F says: "It looks like this is it, then. And, why should the EU states want to faff around any longer?
Boris seems to have played this very well."
If it pans out this way, and we leave with a deal in time, what are your thoughts on the next GE date? Tories will own the polls. My feeling is that we are back to 2022.
Regarding SandyRentools comments, if Commons voted down the deal and then won VONC and GNU and revoke - there would be utter uproar in the country. This really would be a coup.
By getting a deal that allows the whole UK to sign FTAs and GB not to be subject to EU regulation, the Conservatives can eat substantially into Brexit Party vote. By getting a deal, he keeps on board centre-right moderates. That would be mid to high 30s. I think Corbyn's ceiling is now in the high 20s. Boris will get a healthy majority unless the Lib Dems overtake Corbyn.
Probably but it doesn't matter. Maturity means putting ego aside and doing what is right for the country.
Oh, I'd vote for the deal. But these things have downsides. On the upside, let's all laugh at Nigel. He will go back to being a fringe figure on the nationalist hard right.
Sean_F says: "It looks like this is it, then. And, why should the EU states want to faff around any longer?
Boris seems to have played this very well."
If it pans out this way, and we leave with a deal in time, what are your thoughts on the next GE date? Tories will own the polls. My feeling is that we are back to 2022.
Given he has no majority, he'll be wanting a election asap to ride high on the momentum of the deal afterglow.
"If we have a deal.." but if the Commons votes against then he doesn't have a deal. The UK is a Parliamentary democracy.
If the Common votes against Boris's Deal then it has no deal....
But it won't. Boris has demonstrated a great undertsanding of ju-jitsu. Using your opponent's weight against them. As they all huffed and puffed about the terrors of No Deal, he was inwardly smiling.....
Juncker gave as his reason "We have concluded a deal." Hasn't he read A50? The proposal hasn't gone to the EU Parliament yet.
I'd expect the EU Parliament to be more of a problem for the final trade agreement than for the withdrawal agreement, particularly as Ireland has signed off on the most contentious issue of the Irish border.
I must admit I don't hear a complete bloc on no further extensions. Clearly, if the new WA clears the UK Parliament no extensions will be necessary and we will be in transition out of the EU from 31/10/19 to 31/12/20 (I presume). We'll pay up the £39 billion (remember that?) as well in phases.
In transition we remain full members of the SM and CU so FoM continues but obviously we will be outside the political decision-making process.
IF the Commons votes down the WA there will be another extension proffered but all Johnson has to do is to offer a confirmatory referendum and he'll have all the votes he needs so if the WA goes down it will be entirely Johnson and the Conservatives' fault.
I suspect a confirmatory referendum would probably mean the WA getting accepted by the electorate so we will then genuinely have an end to this phase of us leaving the EU but as others have said the future relationship is the next area and that's where the next focus will be and the battleground on which the next GE will be fought.
He's a behind the scenes man, the way he dresses tells me that. He's probably also one of the smartest people in the whole of the Westminster village, on the same level as Grieve likely. He holds loads of MPs in utter contempt particularly the ERG and Labour I reckon.
Sean_F says: "It looks like this is it, then. And, why should the EU states want to faff around any longer?
Boris seems to have played this very well."
If it pans out this way, and we leave with a deal in time, what are your thoughts on the next GE date? Tories will own the polls. My feeling is that we are back to 2022.
Don't think the Tories will own the polls once this passes. He will get a bump for six months. The opposition can keep an election off the table for long enough for it to pass. They can then start scaremongering about a US trade deal, which is fertile ground for them.
Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.
They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
And if they pass the bill subject to confirmatory referendum, then there is obviously a need for prolongation, so the extension would be granted. There would be clarity as to a resolution and no chance for a No Deal outcome. Win-win-win; of course they'd pass the extension.
Have to say I have said for weeks that Boris would throw NI under the bus at first opportunity that benefited him. He is at least focused on what he wants and needs for himself and they have played a good hand with timing.
Regarding SandyRentools comments, if Commons voted down the deal and then won VONC and GNU and revoke - there would be utter uproar in the country. This really would be a coup.
I agree it would be politically next to impossible. Remainers last feasible play is to try and attach Ref2 to it. So Saturday's march will be absolutely febrile. Can't wait. I'll be on it. Day of Destiny.
But it won't work. We're leaving. As I always thought we were - but it could be sooner than I had expected. I was sure this whole thing would slide into 2020.
Probably but it doesn't matter. Maturity means putting ego aside and doing what is right for the country.
Oh, I'd vote for the deal. But these things have downsides. On the upside, let's all laugh at Nigel. He will go back to being a fringe figure on the nationalist hard right.
The final expulsion of Farage from our political sphere will be wonderful. Especially given his Brexit supoorters aren't even following him. Will it be 9 defeats for a Westminster seat? Or will he give up and slink away in shame?
From what I have heard from Juncker so far I would put it in the category of "well he would say that wouldn't he". If the UK parliament rejects the deal and Johnson requests an extension per the Benn Act I would be surprised if the European Council rejects the request and puts itself in the position of being blamed for no deal. It's possible, but still unlikely.
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
And if they pass the bill subject to confirmatory referendum, then there is obviously a need for prolongation, so the extension would be granted. There would be clarity as to a resolution and no chance for a No Deal outcome. Win-win-win; of course they'd pass the extension.
The Tories won't accept a second referendum. If the deal goes through they are in decent shape. If the deal gets rejected they are in excellent shape. If a referendum (that they have backed) rejects the deal, it plunges them into crisis and splits again. Not worth the risk.
I suspect we won't be hearing much about "wargaming" from his enemies any time soon.
Nor that we'll hear any more nonsense about the Benn Act meaning we wouldn't get a deal - it turns out to be have been the principal reason why we might now have a deal, as it meant Boris and the ERG were completely boxed in and have had to concede everything the EU originally insisted on. Of course, it's jolly easy to get a deal if you do that.
I am not sure why anyone is surprised that we are where we are today - the EU is known for last minute 'deals'. It has been the usual way these things happen for a long time.
The only way they manage agreements seems to be to wait until the last possible minute.
Re: An election. It’s simple isn’t it? Absent EU issues, a VONC means an election, since we know Corbyn doesn’t command a majority. The QS or the Budget will lead to an opportunity to call one (Boris can allow the SNP or LibDems to table one).
Therefore, if there is a deal we’ll have an election, but if it’s over the Budget rather than the QS then it has to be next year. A VONC after losing the QS might just about still mean first week of Dec.
Edit - assuming Corbyn would not just whip for the 2/3 and back his campaigning.
XR are out to cause disruption to gain attention to force a change from business as usual to take the climate seriously. What could cause more disruption than blocking the tube?
I can see why they would do it, even if I might think it would have been better to choose other targets.
Would be interesting if on Saturday Parliament rejected the deal but by single digits, so a letter gets sent under the Benn Act which gets a reply from the EU saying "no extension" and then there is a Boris Deal MV2. Surely would have to go through?
I suspect we won't be hearing much about "wargaming" from his enemies any time soon.
Nor that we'll hear any more nonsense about the Benn Act meaning we wouldn't get a deal - it turns out to be have been the principal reason why we might now have a deal, as it meant Boris and the ERG were completely boxed in and have had to concede everything the EU originally insisted on. Of course, it's jolly easy to get a deal if you do that.
They didn't concede everything. They got the level playing field excluded from the WA, a NI decision on the arrangements every four years, and the whole UK outside the Customs Union and benefitting from trade deals.
First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
But even if the EU were to say something along those lines, there would be no reason to believe they would stick to that view. How many times did it repeat that May's WA was not going to be re-opened. Pragmatic real politics would intervene were there to be a change of UK government.
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
Their electoral argument is quite clear. A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
Yawn. They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.
Some of them did, the ones people have heard of... didn't.
What are the reasons for Labour opposing the deal?
Varies I'd say. Some are remainers who can't/won't accept the result. Others are tribal and won't support any deal negotiated by Boris. Corbyn's plan I think has been to string the whole thing out as long as possible to try and force an election but this far that hasn't worked.
XR are out to cause disruption to gain attention to force a change from business as usual to take the climate seriously. What could cause more disruption than blocking the tube?
I can see why they would do it, even if I might think it would have been better to choose other targets.
Their actions today make it very tough for them to argue that the Met's decision to ban their protests was disproportionate.
They didn't concede everything. They got the level playing field excluded from the WA, a NI decision on the arrangements every four years, and the whole UK outside the Customs Union and benefitting from trade deals.
All of which, except for the Stormont agreement bit (which could probably have been agreed two years ago), was in the EU's original proposal for how to deal with the Irish border issue, which Boris rejected at the time because it requires some customs checks in the Irish Sea.
But, hey, I don't mind. This is theatre (a farce, as it happens) designed to con the ERGers into voting for exactly what they previously railed against. If Boris can bring off that betrayal without losing too many of them, then great. If he can bring it off whilst also ridding the party of a few of the more bonkers ones, then even better.
What are the reasons for Labour opposing the deal?
Varies I'd say. Some are remainers who can't/won't accept the result. Others are tribal and won't support any deal negotiated by Boris. Corbyn's plan I think has been to string the whole thing out as long as possible to try and force an election but this far that hasn't worked.
And now he'll get his election, but on around 20% in the polls......
The second point is that in the interests of his own political self-preservation, Boris has handed the EU a huge victory. Dropping the backstop in favour of a border in the Irish Sea is exactly what the EU wanted originally so they have enthusiastically signed up to it.
Those MPs opposed to a separate regulatory arrangement for Northern Ireland now have to justify why they can support this WA. I know people are tired and want this "over with" but as I've said before, tired people often make bad decisions and tired people often support bad decisions.
It is now wholly and transparently about the perpetuation of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and the Conservative Party in Government and, were the Tories to win a post-Brexit GE, it would then be about them trying to make good on all the promises made and that's going to be a real challenge.
I suspect we won't be hearing much about "wargaming" from his enemies any time soon.
Nor that we'll hear any more nonsense about the Benn Act meaning we wouldn't get a deal - it turns out to be have been the principal reason why we might now have a deal, as it meant Boris and the ERG were completely boxed in and have had to concede everything the EU originally insisted on. Of course, it's jolly easy to get a deal if you do that.
Unintended consequences, they will be kicking themselves when they are finally squashed and get a kicking in the next election. Not quite as smart as they thought they were.
I think there's a decent chance that Westminster's NI funding will be markedly more modest for any period it seeks to remain in regulatory alignment with the Republic.
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
And if they pass the bill subject to confirmatory referendum, then there is obviously a need for prolongation, so the extension would be granted. There would be clarity as to a resolution and no chance for a No Deal outcome. Win-win-win; of course they'd pass the extension.
The Tories won't accept a second referendum. If the deal goes through they are in decent shape. If the deal gets rejected they are in excellent shape. If a referendum (that they have backed) rejects the deal, it plunges them into crisis and splits again. Not worth the risk.
stodge says: "Boris has handed the EU a huge victory. Dropping the backstop in favour of a border in the Irish Sea is exactly what the EU wanted originally so they have enthusiastically signed up to it."
Boris has put Brexit before 31/10 ahead of the Union. Shame.
First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
But even if the EU were to say something along those lines, there would be no reason to believe they would stick to that view. How many times did it repeat that May's WA was not going to be re-opened. Pragmatic real politics would intervene were there to be a change of UK government.
No, I think the balance of probabilities is that they would reject a further extension. Of course, its essentially unknowable for sure what they would do until they were faced with the decision. But it does mean that the opposition rejecting the deal are forced to contemplate the possibility of either No Deal or revoke.
They didn't concede everything. They got the level playing field excluded from the WA, a NI decision on the arrangements every four years, and the whole UK outside the Customs Union and benefitting from trade deals.
All of which, except for the Stormont agreement bit (which could probably have been agreed two years ago), was in the EU's original proposal for how to deal with the Irish border issue, which Boris rejected at the time because it requires some customs checks in the Irish Sea.
But, hey, I don't mind. This is theatre (a farce, as it happens) designed to con the ERGers into voting for exactly what they previously railed against. If Boris can bring off that betrayal without losing too many of them, then great. If he can bring it off whilst also ridding the party of a few of the more bonkers ones, then even better.
No, it wasn't. The original EU proposal had Northern Ireland fully in the customs union (no benefit from UK tariff reductions), the single market (not just agrifood/industrial products) and tax system (not just goods). It also had level playing field in the WA.
Re: An election. It’s simple isn’t it? Absent EU issues, a VONC means an election, since we know Corbyn doesn’t command a majority. The QS or the Budget will lead to an opportunity to call one (Boris can allow the SNP or LibDems to table one).
Therefore, if there is a deal we’ll have an election, but if it’s over the Budget rather than the QS then it has to be next year. A VONC after losing the QS might just about still mean first week of Dec.
Edit - assuming Corbyn would not just whip for the 2/3 and back his campaigning.
If deal goes through why would any of the opposition parties go for an early election, leave Johnson where he is where he can’t do anymore harm and see how it goes.
Just think, we could have had an election earlier this week and if elected, PM Corbyn could have been heading to Europe today to request an extension in order to hold a referendum.
Wonder whether the Remainers Against an Election have realised they screwed up?
They didn't concede everything. They got the level playing field excluded from the WA, a NI decision on the arrangements every four years, and the whole UK outside the Customs Union and benefitting from trade deals.
All of which, except for the Stormont agreement bit (which could probably have been agreed two years ago), was in the EU's original proposal for how to deal with the Irish border issue, which Boris rejected at the time because it requires some customs checks in the Irish Sea.
But, hey, I don't mind. This is theatre (a farce, as it happens) designed to con the ERGers into voting for exactly what they previously railed against. If Boris can bring off that betrayal without losing too many of them, then great. If he can bring it off whilst also ridding the party of a few of the more bonkers ones, then even better.
I'd tend to agree with you, Richard. Though I think the NI part of the agreement considerably messier than the May deal, and that could have consequences.
Well, it depends what happens. Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP? What's your bet?
The DUP don't matter. They've overplayed their hand and now with Boris's Deal v No Deal by 31st October, they can vote against if they want. Other MPs will vote to prevent No Deal.
stodge says: "Boris has handed the EU a huge victory. Dropping the backstop in favour of a border in the Irish Sea is exactly what the EU wanted originally so they have enthusiastically signed up to it."
Boris has put Brexit before 31/10 ahead of the Union. Shame.
Boris has put Boris before every other consideration. That should not be a surprise.
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
No, it wasn't. The original EU proposal had Northern Ireland fully in the customs union (no benefit from UK tariff reductions), the single market (not just agrifood/industrial products) and tax system (not just goods). It also had level playing field in the WA.
Those differences are just fudge laid over the fundamentals. If the UK wants to put in place a complex system for NI businesses to reclaim some tariff differences (if there are any eventually, which I doubt), then it's no big deal to the EU, is it?
Comments
The Belgium PM has just said a deal has to be done by the 31st and insists the UK will leave on that date
1. Possible/likely
2. Possible (though I think they'd probably shift on this after an HOC No vote, and certainly if there was a new PM/GE/referendum in the offing)
3. Possible
4. Still massive issues over the identity of PM.
5. Possible if the EU's firm on no extension (though it does need those Lab leavers and Tory rebels to go somewhere deeply uncomfortable.)
Add 5a - GE to get a government stable enough to deliver step 6 (or a Tory majority to deliver Deal or No Deal in short order).
6. IMO can't be done by current HoC. Even if they could pass a law to insist on one, it needs a lot of work to deliver and someone running the country while it's done.
7. Possible/likely outcome.. but dependent on what happens in between (so quite a throw of the dice)
Well done. Very astute call of yours against the consensus.
So as David Dimbleby said over 3 years ago now -
That's it. We're out.
9. General Election
10. Tories put Boris deal in their manifesto
11. Tories win big majority
12. We leave on Tory deal
13. Consevative government for 5 more years
Going to be a good Christmas at MarqueeMark Towers....
It looks like this is it, then. And, why should the EU states want to faff around any longer?
Boris seems to have played this very well.
It's like an Agatha Christie Whodunnit....all the pieces were clearly on view. And I repeatedly pointed you to them. It's just that people didn't want that to be the murderer.....
The latter would see MV passing on Saturday. I'm guessing the former isn't enough.
Also they don't want a referendum, and things bubbling though for the next 6 months.
However, as so often with Brexit, the other side of the equation are listening. If ERG MPs who are considering whether to accept this compromise come to believe that there will be no extension, come what may, they could be encouraged to vote against the deal in the hope of a no deal departure at the end of October.
If this gambit wins Johnson the 19-strong Kinnock group he still loses if 20 ERGers vote against.
Boris seems to have played this very well."
If it pans out this way, and we leave with a deal in time, what are your thoughts on the next GE date? Tories will own the polls. My feeling is that we are back to 2022.
On the upside, let's all laugh at Nigel. He will go back to being a fringe figure on the nationalist hard right.
But it won't. Boris has demonstrated a great undertsanding of ju-jitsu. Using your opponent's weight against them. As they all huffed and puffed about the terrors of No Deal, he was inwardly smiling.....
I must admit I don't hear a complete bloc on no further extensions. Clearly, if the new WA clears the UK Parliament no extensions will be necessary and we will be in transition out of the EU from 31/10/19 to 31/12/20 (I presume). We'll pay up the £39 billion (remember that?) as well in phases.
In transition we remain full members of the SM and CU so FoM continues but obviously we will be outside the political decision-making process.
IF the Commons votes down the WA there will be another extension proffered but all Johnson has to do is to offer a confirmatory referendum and he'll have all the votes he needs so if the WA goes down it will be entirely Johnson and the Conservatives' fault.
I suspect a confirmatory referendum would probably mean the WA getting accepted by the electorate so we will then genuinely have an end to this phase of us leaving the EU but as others have said the future relationship is the next area and that's where the next focus will be and the battleground on which the next GE will be fought.
He holds loads of MPs in utter contempt particularly the ERG and Labour I reckon.
MarqueeMark: come on - admit it - you evil genius you.
He is Cummings evil puppet master""
Cumming`s glove puppet
'There will be no prolongation'
https://metro.co.uk/2019/10/17/extinction-rebellion-activists-not-want-disrupt-tube-10936554/
I know that! But he can`t have one can he (FTPA). The power to call an election resides in Corbyn`s hands.
But it won't work. We're leaving. As I always thought we were - but it could be sooner than I had expected. I was sure this whole thing would slide into 2020.
He can't resist post Oct 31, as his only reason will be he's scared/frit, oh and a liar.
The only way they manage agreements seems to be to wait until the last possible minute.
And so it has proved again
Therefore, if there is a deal we’ll have an election, but if it’s over the Budget rather than the QS then it has to be next year. A VONC after losing the QS might just about still mean first week of Dec.
Edit - assuming Corbyn would not just whip for the 2/3 and back his campaigning.
I can see why they would do it, even if I might think it would have been better to choose other targets.
Purely because they cannot allow Tories to gain credit. If the deal had been one that Labour had fashioned, they would say how brilliant it is.
May have elements of not inside CU and SM
But, hey, I don't mind. This is theatre (a farce, as it happens) designed to con the ERGers into voting for exactly what they previously railed against. If Boris can bring off that betrayal without losing too many of them, then great. If he can bring it off whilst also ridding the party of a few of the more bonkers ones, then even better.
Those MPs opposed to a separate regulatory arrangement for Northern Ireland now have to justify why they can support this WA. I know people are tired and want this "over with" but as I've said before, tired people often make bad decisions and tired people often support bad decisions.
It is now wholly and transparently about the perpetuation of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and the Conservative Party in Government and, were the Tories to win a post-Brexit GE, it would then be about them trying to make good on all the promises made and that's going to be a real challenge.
Boris has put Brexit before 31/10 ahead of the Union. Shame.
Of course, its essentially unknowable for sure what they would do until they were faced with the decision. But it does mean that the opposition rejecting the deal are forced to contemplate the possibility of either No Deal or revoke.
Isn't it now a case of who is more likely to back down - The EU or the DUP?
What's your bet?
Wonder whether the Remainers Against an Election have realised they screwed up?