Bercow has been backed down to 17/1 with Betfair for next PM. I can`t see Corbyn heading a GNU and I`m struggling to see any alternative that Corbyn could stomach other than Bercow.
There must be an arcane rule preventing the Speaker from taking up the role of First Lord of the Treasury.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
I would caution talk of landslides. It is likely Boris will win an election post brexit on the 31st October, but I doubt it would be a landslide
Oh, and please do not quote polls at me. Thanks
Indeed, after Brexit has happened former Labour voting Leavers have no reason to back Johnson.
Do they have any reason to vote Labour though ?
No and many would vote Brexit Party rather than return to Corbyn Labour
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
Buyers remose will not hit until the end of Transition. Until then we continue as de factor EU members with full FoM, payments, rules, only without a vote.
The logical thing would be for the EU to accept an extension for an election or referendum but not for a three month extension with no clear way forward. That would avoid making them look overly aggressive (take the deal or else) but at the same time give a clear signal that they're not prepared to keep delaying this.
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
Buyers remose will not hit until the end of Transition. Until then we continue as de factor EU members with full FoM, payments, rules, only without a vote.
Bercow has been backed down to 17/1 with Betfair for next PM. I can`t see Corbyn heading a GNU and I`m struggling to see any alternative that Corbyn could stomach other than Bercow.
There must be an arcane rule preventing the Speaker from taking up the role of First Lord of the Treasury.
Don't think so. William Grenville was Speaker briefly in 1789, but left the role to join the Cabinet and became PM in 1806. It's now the convention not to return to front line politics after being Speaker, but there's no rule on it.
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
Buyers remose will not hit until the end of Transition. Until then we continue as de factor EU members with full FoM, payments, rules, only without a vote.
Well hopefully Labour MPs have the nous to see more than 14 months ahead even if the general public are more gullible.
Is there any insight of the position Labour's dealers will take?
Thinking Kinnock, de Piero et al.
It's still all guesswork. Having the level playing field in the political declaration is better than not at all, but represents a weakening compared to May's Deal, and they were holding out for beefing that up in return for their support.
So, on the face of it, you would think they would be solidly opposed. But they haven't said so. Suspect that means they're looking for a figleaf to cover supporting it, or at least abstaining.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Wrong. From 1940 to 1945 there was an all party coalition.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
You think that after failing to deliver Brexit as promised "Do or Die, then losing a referendum on his deal, Bozo would still be leader of the Conservative Party?
2nd Ref after Revoke is perfectly possible. I guess the uncertainty would be that if we voted to leave with the deal, the EU could turn round and say that the deal is no longer offer.
Provided Boris still led the Leave campaign yes but even if he resigned as Tory leader and say Raab or Patel took over the Tories would still win a landslide as the SNP did on 2015 with Leavers united behind the Tories.
After Revoke there would be no need for a referendum as there would be no Brexit but Boris would campaign to Leave with no referendum as it was revoke with no referendum and again almost certainly win a Tory landslide.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
And Corbyn hasn't spent five years as deputy PM fighting an existential war against tyranny.
With the DUP on board I think this deal would have got through , it might still without them but the big problem is then trying to get the WAIB through . You really need a decent majority to make sure that happens .
I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
We can deal with other countries
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
Rules of Origin.
It's why Switzerland's free trade deal with China doesn't allow the free flow of Chinese goods tariff free into the EU.
Switzerland’s deal also doesn’t allow the free flow of Swiss goods tariff free into China.
That's not quite true. A more accurate summary would be: while Switzerland agreed to immediately eliminate tariffs on more than 95% of goods imported from China, the reductions on the Chinese side are more gradual, with key exports (such as watches) seeing tariffs reduced to zero over a 14 year period.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
And Corbyn hasn't spent five years as deputy PM fighting an existential war against tyranny.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Wrong. From 1940 to 1945 there was an all party coalition.
Buyers remose will not hit until the end of Transition. Until then we continue as de factor EU members with full FoM, payments, rules, only without a vote.
The question of extending the transition will pop up almost immediately. Brexit arguments are not going away any time soon.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Wrong. From 1940 to 1945 there was an all party coalition.
Atlee's participation in the wartime coalition provides a case-study for junior coalition partners emerging from the experience strengthened.
Not much of a big deal really though. The backstop was only deemed non-negotiable all the time Theresa insisted that the integrity of the UK was sacrosanct. The moment Boris dumped that the backstop was completely redundant.
Yes - Ireland is further towards unification but it is a small price to pay for most committed Brexiters.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Yep this sounds to me entirely plausible
It isn't, Attlee got 47% of the vote in 1945, the latest poll has Corbyn Labour on just 22%
Nice of Juncker to help Boris sell this as Deal or No Deal. If needed, Hungary may also let it be known they will veto any extension just to give it a bit of added bite.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
What happened to “historic 4th term”?
It will happen after today, maybe even with a Tory landslide
Not much of a big deal really though. The backstop was only deemed non-negotiable all the time Theresa insisted that the integrity of the UK was sacrosanct. The moment Boris dumped that the backstop was completely redundant.
Yes - Ireland is further towards unification but it is a small price to pay for most committed Brexiters.
Some of us see it as another positive
Well I am a Unionist but it is up to the people in the end so I wouldn't have a problem with it. Arlene, however...I mean talk about screwing over your supposed partners. Jeez Louise!
Not much of a big deal really though. The backstop was only deemed non-negotiable all the time Theresa insisted that the integrity of the UK was sacrosanct. The moment Boris dumped that the backstop was completely redundant.
Yes - Ireland is further towards unification but it is a small price to pay for most committed Brexiters.
Wrong, Ireland is further away from unification as only a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would have made a vote in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland likely (bar a UDI declaring DUP led county Antrim)
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
Buyers remose will not hit until the end of Transition. Until then we continue as de factor EU members with full FoM, payments, rules, only without a vote.
Well hopefully Labour MPs have the nous to see more than 14 months ahead even if the general public are more gullible.
Keir Starmer’s thread is beyond parody. Nothing is decided for the next 10 years. The stuff in the political declaration can be changed to his hearts content if Labour win the election. And it would be but not in the way he says. The level playing field arrangements would be first to go so Commie McDonnell can pursue his “state aid” manifesto.
If Labour won an election (now or later) they’d be perfectly free to tear up any free trade deal with the US or Australia or whoever else and rejoin the EU’s customs union. I personally think it would be stupid to do so but that’s democracy and the whole principle of sovereign self determination that Brexit is supposed to embody.
This is opposing for the sake of it and all but the most tribal will see that. Frankly Labour would be smarter to whip to back the vote and move on. I doubt there’s really many votes for the Lib Dem’s in rejoin.
If I were Johnson, I'd be tempted to take up Labour's offer of a second referendum, but load the dice by saying that if we vote Remain, we should go all in and join the Euro.
The WA is the best deal available; WA won't be reopened; Boris doesn't want to do a deal; There isn't time to do a new deal; Boris is being paid by EvilRichGuys to go no deal; The backstop has to stay; Parliament must be reopened so that it can scrutinise HMG; There must be an election so the country can get the Tories out;
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
What happened to “historic 4th term”?
It will happen after today, maybe even with a Tory landslide
I cautioned you on using landslide. It is far from certain and seems triumphalist
The Danish PM remarks mean there’s no way the EU council in its conclusions will rule out an extension .
All conclusions have to be unanimously agreed . I think they might just avoid the issue .
Not so. Only one country is needed to veto an extension
I know that , I was talking about the conclusions of the council . It’s been released , and they’ve not mentioned the issue . Which seems sensible , doing anything else would have been seen as meddling .
If I were Johnson, I'd be tempted to take up Labour's offer of a second referendum, but load the dice by saying that if we vote Remain, we should go all in and join the Euro.
If I were Johnson, I'd be tempted to take up Labour's offer of a second referendum, but load the dice by saying that if we vote Remain, we should go all in and join the Euro.
Don't get this. The whole purpose of Brexit was to return control to the UK, and to Parliament. In effect he's saying he doesn't trust people to vote 'correctly' and so the UK must not have the right to set our own rules. I'd happily remain, but this argument is just crap.
Don't get this. The whole purpose of Brexit was to return control to the UK, and to Parliament. In effect he's saying he doesn't trust people to vote 'correctly' and so the UK must not have the right to set our own rules. I'd happily remain, but this argument is just crap.
The Danish PM remarks mean there’s no way the EU council in its conclusions will rule out an extension .
All conclusions have to be unanimously agreed . I think they might just avoid the issue .
Given Kinnock was married to a Danish PM, might be a few favours being called in for him to manufacture the optics of some wiggle room. But it is a brave Remainer who takes that as any indicator that they can assume there will be any further extensions.
If the deal does not pass the Commons and a VONC is quickly tabled and gov loses, is there time to set up a GNU in time to Revoke before 31st October?
For example, if gov lost a VONC on Monday 21st, 14 days takes us way past 31/10.
Depends how quick a 'new' coalition could be formed. It's possible that, given a VONC, a GNU can't be formed at all, at which point, we get a GE, and a whole load of mess.
If the deal does not pass the Commons and a VONC is quickly tabled and gov loses, is there time to set up a GNU in time to Revoke before 31st October?
For example, if gov lost a VONC on Monday 21st, 14 days takes us way past 31/10.
Depends how quick a 'new' coalition could be formed. It's possible that, given a VONC, a GNU can't be formed at all, at which point, we get a GE, and a whole load of mess.
Not to mention to get a GNU, you need Labour/lib dems/SNP and a fair few tories, so who knows what horse trading that would lead to.
If I were Johnson, I'd be tempted to take up Labour's offer of a second referendum, but load the dice by saying that if we vote Remain, we should go all in and join the Euro.
Starmer at one point in the process said that his own proposals were unacceptable when he thought they were May's. He is a classic game playing politician.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
What happened to “historic 4th term”?
It will happen after today, maybe even with a Tory landslide
I cautioned you on using landslide. It is far from certain and seems triumphalist
I said 'maybe' but given the latest poll is now Tories 37%, Labour 22% and LDs 18% and the odds are Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal after the EU have refused extension, the first Tory landslide in 32 years is a possibility
I suppose one factor in all this is that even with the DUP, and Gauke/Hammond etc back in the tent; the Gvt has no majority. On that basis Boris doesn’t really need the confidence and supply arrangement.
If he gets this over the line, he’s “done the impossible” and goes into an election as “Mr Can Do” with no need for the DUP.
If he doesn’t get it over the line, he gets to blame Parliament and gets to go into an election still offering a deal; and he doesn’t need the DUP.
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
I think if people rush into supporting this deal out of an understandable desire for it "all to be over" then they are likely to suffer from some pretty severe buyer's remorse, especially if they don't want to see a bonfire of regulation combined with significantly higher barriers to trading with Europe. This analysis from Starmer is pretty damning: https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602 I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
Buyers remose will not hit until the end of Transition. Until then we continue as de factor EU members with full FoM, payments, rules, only without a vote.
Well hopefully Labour MPs have the nous to see more than 14 months ahead even if the general public are more gullible.
Keir Starmer’s thread is beyond parody. Nothing is decided for the next 10 years. The stuff in the political declaration can be changed to his hearts content if Labour win the election. And it would be but not in the way he says. The level playing field arrangements would be first to go so Commie McDonnell can pursue his “state aid” manifesto.
If Labour won an election (now or later) they’d be perfectly free to tear up any free trade deal with the US or Australia or whoever else and rejoin the EU’s customs union. I personally think it would be stupid to do so but that’s democracy and the whole principle of sovereign self determination that Brexit is supposed to embody.
This is opposing for the sake of it and all but the most tribal will see that. Frankly Labour would be smarter to whip to back the vote and move on. I doubt there’s really many votes for the Lib Dem’s in rejoin.
If the Tories wanted to compromise and obtain Labour support they could have done, but since they haven't, Labour is perfectly entitled to oppose the deal. Now it may be that that will turn out to be bad politics, but Labour is not obliged to sign up to things it disagrees with.
Don't get this. The whole purpose of Brexit was to return control to the UK, and to Parliament. In effect he's saying he doesn't trust people to vote 'correctly' and so the UK must not have the right to set our own rules. I'd happily remain, but this argument is just crap.
It is also blind to the fact it returns an issue where Labour have the advantage to domestic debate. This will help Labour electorally. But it does not chime with today's Labour's "no, no, no, nothing with the nasty Tories" mindset.
Don't get this. The whole purpose of Brexit was to return control to the UK, and to Parliament. In effect he's saying he doesn't trust people to vote 'correctly' and so the UK must not have the right to set our own rules. I'd happily remain, but this argument is just crap.
What does Brexit mean? Deregulated oligarchs utopia or protectionist welfare state redistributing to distressed areas? I suspect that the Leavers of Wigan do not fancy the former.
The Danish PM remarks mean there’s no way the EU council in its conclusions will rule out an extension .
All conclusions have to be unanimously agreed . I think they might just avoid the issue .
Given Kinnock was married to a Danish PM, might be a few favours being called in for him to manufacture the optics of some wiggle room. But it is a brave Remainer who takes that as any indicator that they can assume there will be any further extensions.
I’m not assuming anything . However the EU has said all along they won’t be responsible for a no deal . The EU council works on unanimity , they’ll moan and some will showboat but some form of an extension is likely to be granted , but I expect that will be the final one offered .
Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.
FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.
Don't get this. The whole purpose of Brexit was to return control to the UK, and to Parliament. In effect he's saying he doesn't trust people to vote 'correctly' and so the UK must not have the right to set our own rules. I'd happily remain, but this argument is just crap.
What does Brexit mean? Deregulated oligarchs utopia or protectionist welfare state redistributing to distressed areas? I suspect that the Leavers of Wigan do not fancy the former.
I'd rather it be in the hands of the Leavers of Wigan, rather than whoever has control of the EU Parliament.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
What happened to “historic 4th term”?
It will happen after today, maybe even with a Tory landslide
I cautioned you on using landslide. It is far from certain and seems triumphalist
I said 'maybe' but given the latest poll is now Tories 37%, Labour 22% and LDs 18% and the odds are Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal after the EU have refused extension, the first Tory landslide in 32 years is a possibility
You never seem to yield to sensible advice. A bit of humility goes a long way
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
A bad deal is better than no deal. I thought it with May's one. I think now with something that is objectively worse. The key thing now is the final FTA. Let's hope we get one that is desiged for British citizens and British businesses, not for US corporations.
A pity the three years have been wasted on discussing a fallback plan.
Blame Gove for that. It should have Boris doing this from day one, not May.
If Boris could not win because of Gove then he could not have led well anyway.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
Back to the mundane. There are 4 local by-elections today; 2 Indy defences in North Yorkshire, and 2 Labour defences in Liverpool and Gravesham, All should be holds but possibility of Con gain in Gravesham.
What a lovely man , you can see just how sad he is about Brexit . And his last comment about the door always being open to the UK if it wants to return .
I will miss DT , what a shame he’s tenure as President of the Council is nearly over.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years
What a lovely man , you can see just how sad he is about Brexit . And his last comment about the door always being open to the UK if it wants to return .
I will miss DT , what a shame he’s tenure as President of the Council is nearly over.
Wasn't he the one with the snide twitter posts about May?
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
What happened to “historic 4th term”?
It will happen after today, maybe even with a Tory landslide
I cautioned you on using landslide. It is far from certain and seems triumphalist
I said 'maybe' but given the latest poll is now Tories 37%, Labour 22% and LDs 18% and the odds are Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal after the EU have refused extension, the first Tory landslide in 32 years is a possibility
You never seem to yield to sensible advice. A bit of humility goes a long way
Well if you wimp out and say a Tory landslide is impossible as you are obviously it will be!
I suspect that if, and it's a big if, parliament votes for a Deal/Remain referendum an extension will be granted as there will be a definitive end date.
Comments
4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Thinking Kinnock, de Piero et al.
Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
https://mobile.twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602
I really don't see this getting enough Labour votes to pass. It is the archetypal "Tory Brexit".
So, on the face of it, you would think they would be solidly opposed. But they haven't said so. Suspect that means they're looking for a figleaf to cover supporting it, or at least abstaining.
From 1940 to 1945 there was an all party coalition.
After Revoke there would be no need for a referendum as there would be no Brexit but Boris would campaign to Leave with no referendum as it was revoke with no referendum and again almost certainly win a Tory landslide.
I grant you that it's a pretty one-sided deal.
He will not represent the party at the GE and will vote against the deal.
All conclusions have to be unanimously agreed . I think they might just avoid the issue .
If Labour won an election (now or later) they’d be perfectly free to tear up any free trade deal with the US or Australia or whoever else and rejoin the EU’s customs union. I personally think it would be stupid to do so but that’s democracy and the whole principle of sovereign self determination that Brexit is supposed to embody.
This is opposing for the sake of it and all but the most tribal will see that. Frankly Labour would be smarter to whip to back the vote and move on. I doubt there’s really many votes for the Lib Dem’s in rejoin.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838385405485058
The WA is the best deal available;
WA won't be reopened;
Boris doesn't want to do a deal;
There isn't time to do a new deal;
Boris is being paid by EvilRichGuys to go no deal;
The backstop has to stay;
Parliament must be reopened so that it can scrutinise HMG;
There must be an election so the country can get the Tories out;
(cont p.94)
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838374286331906
For example, if gov lost a VONC on Monday 21st, 14 days takes us way past 31/10.
If he gets this over the line, he’s “done the impossible” and goes into an election as “Mr Can Do” with no need for the DUP.
If he doesn’t get it over the line, he gets to blame Parliament and gets to go into an election still offering a deal; and he doesn’t need the DUP.
They have outlived their usefulness.
What does Brexit mean? Deregulated oligarchs utopia or protectionist welfare state redistributing to distressed areas? I suspect that the Leavers of Wigan do not fancy the former.
FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184866654402035712
NEW THREAD
What a lovely man , you can see just how sad he is about Brexit . And his last comment about the door always being open to the UK if it wants to return .
I will miss DT , what a shame he’s tenure as President of the Council is nearly over.
Or parliament passes the deal and VONC and then.....
And probably more importantly what do the EU do.