As a staunch remainer I always felt that the people's vote and the LDs' notion of revoke were poor ideas. I still support the idea of the UK as part of the EU, but I suspect that is a long way off- if remotely possible. I do however think that an independent Scotland and a United Ireland have both been brought a few steps closer. I only hope the idea of an independent Wales in the EU gains some traction.
Today has been all smoke and mirrors but even through the haze today belongs to Boris Johnson. He has seen off the hapless Corbyn and has left Farage backpedalling furiously. However today is just the end of the beginning, there is an awful lot of chlorinated water to flow under the bridge..
If I were Johnson I would enjoy my day in the sun before a big black cloud in the shapely form of Ms Arcuri rains on the parade.
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.
I suppose no one has asked the basic question of what sort of Brexit Cummings wants. He is no friend of Farage and it could be he is perfectly hsppy with a May type deal.
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority. 2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority. 3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority. This isn't strategic genius from Dominic Cummings or anyone else - these are the pro-Government forces at work.
Trading on the sense of fatigue and frustration Boris has been able to quite literally give up on almost everything which May had to get from the EU in a vain attempt to appease the DUP and the ERG and instead of that it is it is hailed as a great victory. He has promised an end to it all and the truth is everyone is so tired and frustrated they would quite literally agree to anything to get a WA and get to the end of it. Even if Boris had ceded Epping Forest to France the ERG would have been happy if it meant a WA could get through the Commons.
It may be Saturday will see the WA rejected and Boris forced to ask for an extension (which the EU will grant despite Juncker's comments) but he will just blame the Opposition and continue rising high.
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.
It really isn't May's deal. The UK can now sign trade deals, Northern Ireland can benefit from them and NI can leave the special arrangement every four years.
Mr. Eagles, surely this is a great opportunity for second ref types?
The only way for us to stay in is revocation (no chance with this Parliament and vanishingly small chance with the next) or a referendum. The Benn Act showed a majority of MPs opposed to a departure without a deal so there's a realistic shot of pro-EU MPs getting a second referendum amendment passed.
And that referendum would be a lot easier for pro-EU types to win than the last.
If the deal gets passed straight, the prospects isn't Remain, but Rejoin, which means on inferior terms (single currency? Schengen?).
In the meantime the EU and UK will likely diverge and the wrench of integration would be as great if not greater than the shift away now. And people are sick of talking about this, so the prospect of another decade or decade and a half (for Rejoin) is going to annoy a lot of people.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
It is not just Juncker but the Belgium PM as well and also Macron
Why on earth you think no deal exit will win the day.
If no extensions are confirmed later by the EU leaders then I expect the HOC to pass this deal
These Europeans have truly trashed British "Europeans". Corbyn must ensure that any Labour MP voting for this whore's charter has his/her whip taken away and debarred from standing again as a Labour candidate.
Given Junker was making this statement after lunch, is there a chance that it might have been shall we say slightly intoxicated and it might not be as certain as we think?
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
It is not just Juncker but the Belgium PM as well and also Macron
Why on earth you think no deal exit will win the day.
If no extensions are confirmed later by the EU leaders then I expect the HOC to pass this deal
These Europeans have truly trashed British "Europeans". Corbyn must ensure that any Labour MP voting for this whore's charter has his/her whip taken away and debarred from standing again as a Labour candidate.
Hopefull Corbyn will shortly be in no position to do this.
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
Its clearly the government's preferred line - and it isn't up to Juncker but the 27, but its possible Boris can get a couple to opine that they'd veto it - it only needs one.
If I understand correctly, Juncker is a member of the European Council and has a veto like all the others!
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
As a staunch remainder I always felt that the people's vote and the LDs' idea of revoke were poor ideas. I still support the idea of the UK as part of the EU, but I suspect that is a long way off- if remotely possible. I do however think that an independent Scotland and a United Ireland have both been brought a few steps closer. I only hope the idea of an independent Wales in the EU gains some traction.
Today has been all smoke and mirrors but even through the haze today belongs to Boris Johnson. He has seen off the hapless Corbyn and has left Farage backpedalling furiously. However today is just the end of the beginning, there is an awful lot of chlorinated water to flow under the bridge..
If I were Johnson I would enjoy my day in the sun before a big black cloud in the shapely form of Ms Arcuri rains on the parade.
It is a great attribute to be magnanimous in victory and gracious in defeat
If this deal goes through I hope leavers and remainers will be mindful of that
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
It is not just Juncker but the Belgium PM as well and also Macron
Why on earth you think no deal exit will win the day.
If no extensions are confirmed later by the EU leaders then I expect the HOC to pass this deal
These Europeans have truly trashed British "Europeans". Corbyn must ensure that any Labour MP voting for this whore's charter has his/her whip taken away and debarred from standing again as a Labour candidate.
With a whores charter I think a whip is essential.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Has someone screenshotted the Farage tweet, he's bound to take it down shortly.
Yes.
I think it's safe to say Nigel's finished after that Tweet.
I think it will be like his unresignation. It fundamentally breaks his image as a straight talker and shows him as a lying politician. After decades of campaigning to Leave he is now upset Brussels won't let us stay in? The Tories are the true Leave party now.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
No time, surely, if we are out on 31st. Doubtful if there is a majority for Revoke let alone agreement about how to form an alternative government. VONC leads straight to a GE with Boris as PM.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
It is too late for that, as it risks no alternative PM agreed in the 14 days (therefore going beyond 31st October),
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
Sounds like a lot of the Grand Designs on his show.."higher than anticipated design and project management costs, coupled with delays to the delivery of the sites,"
Given Junker was making this statement after lunch, is there a chance that it might have been shall we say slightly intoxicated and it might not be as certain as we think?
Perhaps he was talking about his Presidency, in which case he was right - no prolongation after 31 October.
Maybe the desire to get Brexit done on his watch is guiding his statements?
Given Junker was making this statement after lunch, is there a chance that it might have been shall we say slightly intoxicated and it might not be as certain as we think?
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
It is not just Juncker but the Belgium PM as well and also Macron
Why on earth you think no deal exit will win the day.
If no extensions are confirmed later by the EU leaders then I expect the HOC to pass this deal
These Europeans have truly trashed British "Europeans". Corbyn must ensure that any Labour MP voting for this whore's charter has his/her whip taken away and debarred from standing again as a Labour candidate.
With a whores charter I think a whip is essential.
Presumably a whores charter allows her to trade freely while protecting her from clients, protection rackets, corrupt cops etc. Sounds good to me.
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
Their electoral argument is quite clear. A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
Yawn. They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.
Some of them did, the ones people have heard of... didn't.
It was in the manifesto.
It wasn't in Heidi Allen's, or Chuka Umunna's, or Sarah Wollastons, or Angela Smith's...
And ?
So it makes
"They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis"
incorrect
You have a view on what defectors from one party to another owe to their constituents, and I suspect mine differs. In any event, they take the Lib Dem whip, and they will go to the electorate in due course under a Lib Dem manifesto.
At the next election, which we were originally talking about.
Given Junker was making this statement after lunch, is there a chance that it might have been shall we say slightly intoxicated and it might not be as certain as we think?
But other leaders have said the same
I am of course joking. It does seem like Macron et al have probably looked at the situation with parliament and thought oh christs sake they are going to play silly buggers again aren't they and we will be doing this for years to come...just as the Eurozone is about to enter a recession.
Mr. kle4, that's what Juncker has said. But it isn't his call.
And it'd be slightly mad for the EU, if a referendum amendment were to be passed, to deny the time for the vote to be held.
That said, for some reason the Remain MPs appear to be more in favour of no deal departure than trying to get a second referendum. Like Babylon 5, it's their last, best hope.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility
I understand labour will not attach a referendum to the vote on saturday which adds to the chance of no deal
Revoke is impossible before a GE
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
Given Junker was making this statement after lunch, is there a chance that it might have been shall we say slightly intoxicated and it might not be as certain as we think?
But other leaders have said the same
I am of course joking. It does seem like Macron et al have probably looked at the situation with parliament and thought oh christs sake they are going to play silly buggers again aren't they and we will be doing this for years to come...just as the Eurozone is about to enter a recession.
As Juncker said, he understands English very well but understanding England ! That's a different matter
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility
I understand labour will not attach a referendum to the vote on saturday which adds to the chance of no deal
Revoke is impossible before a GE
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
"On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility"
I thought that. Farage should be ecstatic. The deal is less than 50% likely to pass, according to the odds, and the alternative is likely No Deal.
If I have understood it correctly, not a certainty, No Deal should be more likely than ever.
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.
I suppose no one has asked the basic question of what sort of Brexit Cummings wants. He is no friend of Farage and it could be he is perfectly hsppy with a May type deal.
Yes that is true. I can't see it but it could well be.
Look comrades, I know I'm sicking my neck out in my predictions of how we ain't gonna leave. You can all laugh at me on 1st Nov if we are out, or on any future date if we are out then. But if I'm right, I'll milk it for the next 17 years.
Brexit is certainly a more entertaining spectator sport than several that PBers take an interest in.
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.
It really isn't May's deal. The UK can now sign trade deals, Northern Ireland can benefit from them and NI can leave the special arrangement every four years.
We can sign trade deals yes although presumably 150% of our trade negotiators will be occupied for the next few months and years with the EU. But yes that is true.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility
No deal has been a very real possibility for a while.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
Someone has 14 days to form a government. That could be Jezza. Or Hattie. Or Ken C. Or anybody who will return from the Palace and then tell the EU that we are revoking.
Look comrades, I know I'm sicking my neck out in my predictions of how we ain't gonna leave. You can all laugh at me on 1st Nov if we are out, or on any future date if we are out then. But if I'm right, I'll milk it for the next 17 years.
Brexit is certainly a more entertaining spectator sport than several that PBers take an interest in.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility
I understand labour will not attach a referendum to the vote on saturday which adds to the chance of no deal
Revoke is impossible before a GE
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
"On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility"
I thought that. Farage should be ecstatic. The deal is less than 50% likely to pass, according to the odds, and the alternative is likely No Deal.
If I have understood it correctly, not a certainty, No Deal should be more likely than ever.
It is now labour have opted out of a referendum amendment
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility
I understand labour will not attach a referendum to the vote on saturday which adds to the chance of no deal
Revoke is impossible before a GE
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
If Boris's Deal is voted down he has to a) ask for an extension or b) resign.
If a) and the EU reject, the HoC can always vote for Boris's Deal at that point. OR vote to force him to Revoke
If b) Corbyn will be PM at least temporarily and can ask for an extension or (if an extension is rejected by the EU) Revoke.
All unlikely scenarious, I grant, but none are impossible.
Look comrades, I know I'm sicking my neck out in my predictions of how we ain't gonna leave. You can all laugh at me on 1st Nov if we are out, or on any future date if we are out then. But if I'm right, I'll milk it for the next 17 years.
Brexit is certainly a more entertaining spectator sport than several that PBers take an interest in.
If you could link to the rules of this particular spectator sport I’d be very grateful. I find it very confusing and I can never tell which team is winning.
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.
I suppose no one has asked the basic question of what sort of Brexit Cummings wants. He is no friend of Farage and it could be he is perfectly hsppy with a May type deal.
Yes that is true. I can't see it but it could well be.
I did read he is a soft brexiteer who is at crossed swords with Farage
As I understand it the DUP have only said that they won't support the deal, not that they would oppose it; makes quite a big difference to the Parliamentary maths.
"The DUP don't abstain on the union" - said before MV3.
They will block vote for or against, they won't abstain.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
Someone has 14 days to form a government. That could be Jezza. Or Hattie. Or Ken C. Or anybody who will return from the Palace and then tell the EU that we are revoking.
Agreed. Smallish chance but then every way forward seems to have a low probability to me right now.
Juncker suddenly the best thing since sliced bread for Leavers .
Farage suddenly loves the Benn Act .
Labour realize that with Farage going full on betrayal that an election before Brexit could see the Leave vote split and their only chance of winning .
The stakes are much higher and now extension gate thrown in !
Personally although the drama over the last few years has been great to watch as a political junkie my message now after lots of reflection and as an ardent Remainer , is time to move on .
To get back to, within a hair's breadth, May's deal. And specifically including something that May said no British PM could ever sign up to.
What an absolutely bonkers last three years this has been.
I suppose no one has asked the basic question of what sort of Brexit Cummings wants. He is no friend of Farage and it could be he is perfectly hsppy with a May type deal.
Yes that is true. I can't see it but it could well be.
I am fairly sure that Cummings is not a Unionist, and if Irish reunification and Scottish Independence are a consequence of BoZo's Surrender Deal, he will be happy. His vision of disaster capitalism is one that would only be held back by the Celts. Smashing the NHS and welfare state is aided by the breakup of the United Kingdom. Think of it as a smaller scale break up of the USSR/CIS, where he spent some formative years.
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.
Its clearly the government's preferred line - and it isn't up to Juncker but the 27, but its possible Boris can get a couple to opine that they'd veto it - it only needs one.
If I understand correctly, Juncker is a member of the European Council and has a veto like all the others!
I don't believe that is correct.
As President of the Commission he attends the Council, but has no vote in it. What he has stated is in fact the unified position of the Council: "No further extension. THIS deal or NO Deal"
Look comrades, I know I'm sicking my neck out in my predictions of how we ain't gonna leave. You can all laugh at me on 1st Nov if we are out, or on any future date if we are out then. But if I'm right, I'll milk it for the next 17 years.
Brexit is certainly a more entertaining spectator sport than several that PBers take an interest in.
I am not going to laugh at you. We all have our own hopes and fears and at this moment I have no idea what will happen
If we do exit on the 31st October I will just be relieved but also do know it is only the start of a long period of negotiating
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
You think that after failing to deliver Brexit as promised "Do or Die, then losing a referendum on his deal, Bozo would still be leader of the Conservative Party?
2nd Ref after Revoke is perfectly possible. I guess the uncertainty would be that if we voted to leave with the deal, the EU could turn round and say that the deal is no longer offer.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
Someone has 14 days to form a government. That could be Jezza. Or Hattie. Or Ken C. Or anybody who will return from the Palace and then tell the EU that we are revoking.
Ken C said the other day he will vote for a deal that Boris gets. So scrub him off the list. And without Ken as an option.....
As a staunch remainder I always felt that the people's vote and the LDs' idea of revoke were poor ideas. I still support the idea of the UK as part of the EU, but I suspect that is a long way off- if remotely possible. I do however think that an independent Scotland and a United Ireland have both been brought a few steps closer. I only hope the idea of an independent Wales in the EU gains some traction.
Today has been all smoke and mirrors but even through the haze today belongs to Boris Johnson. He has seen off the hapless Corbyn and has left Farage backpedalling furiously. However today is just the end of the beginning, there is an awful lot of chlorinated water to flow under the bridge..
If I were Johnson I would enjoy my day in the sun before a big black cloud in the shapely form of Ms Arcuri rains on the parade.
It is a great attribute to be magnanimous in victory and gracious in defeat
If this deal goes through I hope leavers and remainers will be mindful of that
I personally have a problem with Johnson claiming the same victory that he denied Mrs May. I think the man is reprehensible. To Johnson Brexit has only been about feathering his own nest.
If Johnson will be undone by the Arcuri case he will not fall as a result of any affair he will be undone by the small amount of money from the Mayor's fund if that has been spuriously presented and I for one will celebrate like Jean Claude Juncker!
SandyRentool: "It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke".
I agree with you - but VONC + Revoke requires a GNU. Who do you think will be installed as temporary PM? And don`t forget that many other government posts will need filling also.
Not much of a big deal really though. The backstop was only deemed non-negotiable all the time Theresa insisted that the integrity of the UK was sacrosanct. The moment Boris dumped that the backstop was completely redundant.
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
Given the irony so far shown by the scriptwriter of our reality, what are the odds that Juncker's statement (however it can be interpreted) re-emboldens the ERG Spartans who suddenly see, at the eleventh hour, the possibility for a glorious "clean break" Brexit on the horizon...
Oh gods, dont even think it.
It may all be theatre so that the DUP can save face by voting against. The WA passing without their support.
Look comrades, I know I'm sicking my neck out in my predictions of how we ain't gonna leave. You can all laugh at me on 1st Nov if we are out, or on any future date if we are out then. But if I'm right, I'll milk it for the next 17 years.
Brexit is certainly a more entertaining spectator sport than several that PBers take an interest in.
If you could link to the rules of this particular spectator sport I’d be very grateful. I find it very confusing and I can never tell which team is winning.
I would try. But they are somewhat harder to nail down than Mornington Crescent.
Vox pop on R5 from Barnsley (Dan Jarvis - Remainer Lab MP as the piece noted) had people on saying get the deal done and pointing the finger at labour especially for it taking so long....
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
Someone has 14 days to form a government. That could be Jezza. Or Hattie. Or Ken C. Or anybody who will return from the Palace and then tell the EU that we are revoking.
Someone who HMQ is advised has the confidence of the house has 14 days to be appointed.
Now who could that be?
Corbyn? Many public declarations of 'over my dead body', so No. A N Other Many public declarations by Corbyn of 'Over my dead body' so No.
AEP: "Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the Marxisant Piketty activists of the Democratic primaries wish to shut the US capitalist casino once and for all. They will have their excuse when these chickens come home to roost."
I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
We can deal with other countries
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
Rules of Origin.
It's why Switzerland's free trade deal with China doesn't allow the free flow of Chinese goods tariff free into the EU.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
I would caution talk of landslides. It is likely Boris will win an election post brexit on the 31st October, but I doubt it would be a landslide
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
On Saturday it is a straight deal or no deal. If it is voted down then it will be mayhem and no deal becomes a very real possibility
No deal has been a very real possibility for a while.
If it fails, will Bercow block Boris's MV2? And be remembered for facilitataing No Deal Brexit?
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
I would caution talk of landslides. It is likely Boris will win an election post brexit on the 31st October, but I doubt it would be a landslide
Oh, and please do not quote polls at me. Thanks
Indeed, after Brexit has happened former Labour voting Leavers have no reason to back Johnson.
Very funny Cons membership email. Reminds me of The Office when he tells them of the merger and they are worried about their jobs. "You will be ok, you will be ok, you will be ok" *skips next person* "you will be ok..."
"This new deal gives us the power to set our own laws, set our own taxes, make our own free trade deals – and keep our country united.
"And the people of Northern Ireland will be in charge of what happens in Northern Ireland."
I read that the political declaration includes the objective of a zero-tariff and no quota trade deal.
I am not a trade expert. Can anyone explain what the difference is between that and being in a customs union?
We can deal with other countries
Isn't that quite a big advantage for the UK over the members of the EU customs union? Why would they allow us that advantage?
Suppose we agree a trade deal with New Zealand that includes cutting tariffs on their agricultural produce to zero. What's to stop Kiwi butter imported to the UK from being exported to the EU, thereby dodging whatever tariff the EU imposes to protect European dairy farmers?
Rules of Origin.
It's why Switzerland's free trade deal with China doesn't allow the free flow of Chinese goods tariff free into the EU.
Switzerland’s deal also doesn’t allow the free flow of Swiss goods tariff free into China.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
I would caution talk of landslides. It is likely Boris will win an election post brexit on the 31st October, but I doubt it would be a landslide
Oh, and please do not quote polls at me. Thanks
Indeed, after Brexit has happened former Labour voting Leavers have no reason to back Johnson.
Juncker has done a Reverse Obama. By idiotically saying "no further extensions" he has ensured that this whore's charter of a "deal" will be rejected. Do the EU really want a "No Deal" Brexit ?
Either way it is a triumph for Boris, either the Commons passes his Brexit Deal with the EU or the Commons rejects it and he can blame No Deal on the opposition and the EU having still delivered Brexit thanks to Juncker refusing any further extension and making the Benn Act redundant
It isn't Deal or No Deal. It is Deal or VONC + Revoke.
Still a triumph for Boris, if the Commons votes to revoke a Tory landslide is guaranteed under FPTP at the next general election
In 2022? After the second referendum has voted for Remain?
Tory landslide then too, as the SNP showed 45% in a referendum may lose but that 45%+ in a general election produces a landslide under FPTP and Boris would lead any Leave campaign again then do a Salmond and cry 'betrayal' If it loses while obviously triumphant if if wins again.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
I would caution talk of landslides. It is likely Boris will win an election post brexit on the 31st October, but I doubt it would be a landslide
Oh, and please do not quote polls at me. Thanks
Indeed, after Brexit has happened former Labour voting Leavers have no reason to back Johnson.
True and remainers who have gone to the LibDems will never forgive him.
Not much of a big deal really though. The backstop was only deemed non-negotiable all the time Theresa insisted that the integrity of the UK was sacrosanct. The moment Boris dumped that the backstop was completely redundant.
Yes - Ireland is further towards unification but it is a small price to pay for most committed Brexiters.
Bercow has been backed down to 17/1 with Betfair for next PM. I can`t see Corbyn heading a GNU and I`m struggling to see any alternative that Corbyn could stomach other than Bercow.
Comments
Today has been all smoke and mirrors but even through the haze today belongs to Boris Johnson. He has seen off the hapless Corbyn and has left Farage backpedalling furiously. However today is just the end of the beginning, there is an awful lot of chlorinated water to flow under the bridge..
If I were Johnson I would enjoy my day in the sun before a big black cloud in the shapely form of Ms Arcuri rains on the parade.
1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.
There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority. This isn't strategic genius from Dominic Cummings or anyone else - these are the pro-Government forces at work.
Trading on the sense of fatigue and frustration Boris has been able to quite literally give up on almost everything which May had to get from the EU in a vain attempt to appease the DUP and the ERG and instead of that it is it is hailed as a great victory. He has promised an end to it all and the truth is everyone is so tired and frustrated they would quite literally agree to anything to get a WA and get to the end of it. Even if Boris had ceded Epping Forest to France the ERG would have been happy if it meant a WA could get through the Commons.
It may be Saturday will see the WA rejected and Boris forced to ask for an extension (which the EU will grant despite Juncker's comments) but he will just blame the Opposition and continue rising high.
If it is true, I expect messages will be going to the Rebel Alliance leaders to that effect, so they will know.
The only way for us to stay in is revocation (no chance with this Parliament and vanishingly small chance with the next) or a referendum. The Benn Act showed a majority of MPs opposed to a departure without a deal so there's a realistic shot of pro-EU MPs getting a second referendum amendment passed.
And that referendum would be a lot easier for pro-EU types to win than the last.
If the deal gets passed straight, the prospects isn't Remain, but Rejoin, which means on inferior terms (single currency? Schengen?).
In the meantime the EU and UK will likely diverge and the wrench of integration would be as great if not greater than the shift away now. And people are sick of talking about this, so the prospect of another decade or decade and a half (for Rejoin) is going to annoy a lot of people.
Corbyn must ensure that any Labour MP voting for this whore's charter has his/her whip taken away and debarred from standing again as a Labour candidate.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/16073/production/_109272209_mediaitem109272205.jpg
If this deal goes through I hope leavers and remainers will be mindful of that
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50080813
Sounds like a lot of the Grand Designs on his show.."higher than anticipated design and project management costs, coupled with delays to the delivery of the sites,"
https://youtu.be/mkoPq5AOCOA
Maybe the desire to get Brexit done on his watch is guiding his statements?
In any event, they take the Lib Dem whip, and they will go to the electorate in due course under a Lib Dem manifesto.
At the next election, which we were originally talking about.
And it'd be slightly mad for the EU, if a referendum amendment were to be passed, to deny the time for the vote to be held.
That said, for some reason the Remain MPs appear to be more in favour of no deal departure than trying to get a second referendum. Like Babylon 5, it's their last, best hope.
I understand labour will not attach a referendum to the vote on saturday which adds to the chance of no deal
Revoke is impossible before a GE
And on a VONC, Boris has 14 days to form a government which takes us to 3rd November, 3 days after we have left
I thought that. Farage should be ecstatic. The deal is less than 50% likely to pass, according to the odds, and the alternative is likely No Deal.
If I have understood it correctly, not a certainty, No Deal should be more likely than ever.
Brexit is certainly a more entertaining spectator sport than several that PBers take an interest in.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1184850489374134272?s=20
Looking a bit wobbly this afternoon though.
Again, win win for Boris!
(Plus any 2nd referendum would only occur without revoke and with an extension the EU have just refused, so it would need the Commons to vote for EUref2 on Saturday then the EU to reconsider extension)
If a) and the EU reject, the HoC can always vote for Boris's Deal at that point. OR vote to force him to Revoke
If b) Corbyn will be PM at least temporarily and can ask for an extension or (if an extension is rejected by the EU) Revoke.
All unlikely scenarious, I grant, but none are impossible.
They will block vote for or against, they won't abstain.
I'll admit I didn't think the EU would change the WA either though
Farage suddenly loves the Benn Act .
Labour realize that with Farage going full on betrayal that an election before Brexit could see the Leave vote split and their only chance of winning .
The stakes are much higher and now extension gate thrown in !
Personally although the drama over the last few years has been great to watch as a political junkie my message now after lots of reflection and as an ardent Remainer , is time to move on .
Pass the deal !
What he has stated is in fact the unified position of the Council: "No further extension. THIS deal or NO Deal"
If we do exit on the 31st October I will just be relieved but also do know it is only the start of a long period of negotiating
2nd Ref after Revoke is perfectly possible. I guess the uncertainty would be that if we voted to leave with the deal, the EU could turn round and say that the deal is no longer offer.
If Johnson will be undone by the Arcuri case he will not fall as a result of any affair he will be undone by the small amount of money from the Mayor's fund if that has been spuriously presented and I for one will celebrate like Jean Claude Juncker!
I agree with you - but VONC + Revoke requires a GNU. Who do you think will be installed as temporary PM? And don`t forget that many other government posts will need filling also.
Now who could that be?
Corbyn? Many public declarations of 'over my dead body', so No.
A N Other Many public declarations by Corbyn of 'Over my dead body' so No.
It isn't that easy.
The deal is now several hours old, interesting that so far no one is throwing their toys about yet.
AEP: "Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the Marxisant Piketty activists of the Democratic primaries wish to shut the US capitalist casino once and for all. They will have their excuse when these chickens come home to roost."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/16/imf-fears-worlds-financial-system-even-destructive-2008/
It's why Switzerland's free trade deal with China doesn't allow the free flow of Chinese goods tariff free into the EU.
Oh, and please do not quote polls at me. Thanks
I'm thinking not.
"This new deal gives us the power to set our own laws, set our own taxes, make our own free trade deals – and keep our country united.
"And the people of Northern Ireland will be in charge of what happens in Northern Ireland."
Who will they vote for then? They have had the wool well and truly pulled from their eye regarding the Labour Party. Even less likely to vote LibDem.
Act the statesman he clearly isn't.