politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’
Comments
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Are the votes there for revocation ?rpjs said:
Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.GIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
Boris' deal might not pass but you can count Hoey, the DUP and a good few others in amongst those that'll vote down revocation and the deal.0 -
Has any ERG MP declared against the Johnson Deal yet, or are they all either for or keeping quiet at the moment?0
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Except, all the rest of the "fantasy" that I have been laying out here in detail for weeks on how we Brexit on 31st October has been slapping you upside the head...Chris said:
I think that's just a fantasy.MarqueeMark said:
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."Henry_C said:First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
So the Benn Act will apply.
Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......0 -
I am a fan of Ford, FWIW. He has a quick brain.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not a massive fan of Ford, but Slade has only played part of a game and got injured. And I would have Coskanasiga in the squad every time, as players start tiring and we would get to send on a 6ft5 19 stone monster that runs like the wind.Nigelb said:
Can't help thinking that's two mistakes, but we'll see.FrancisUrquhart said:Ford dropped to the bench and no Cokanasiga (even on the bench) for game against the convicts.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/50067955
I can't believe we don't have Cokanasiga on the bench, he is a one man wrecking ball.-1 -
He's retiring so not bothered by reselection threats. One of the old working class awkward squad and friend of the Beast. If Dennis supports the deal that would make things interesting but can't see him going against Corbyn.Andrew said:Ronnie Campbell says he's likely to vote yes.
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Not at all. The EU have moved quite a bit on this deal and are to be commended for doing so.rkrkrk said:
Getting in position to blame the EU of the deal fails?GIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
If the deal fails it will because of this Rotten Parliament alone...
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Or revokeGIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.0 -
Not yet ……… but in a scenario where the deal was voted down, an extension had been refused, and we were days away from a crash no-deal?Pulpstar said:
Are the votes there for revocation ?
I think they'd revoke, don't even think the vote would be close. 340+ ayes.
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Ursula not certain to succeed JunckersGIN1138 said:
Maybe. But Juncker leaves on 31st and Ursula takes over on 1st.Chris said:
I think that's just a fantasy.MarqueeMark said:
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."Henry_C said:First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
So the Benn Act will apply.
Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
They do not want this shit show raining on Ursula's parade, IMO. So if they have to play tough with Parliament to get this deal over the line they might just do it...0 -
I can tell you right now that parliament will not revoke if the practical options are between that and a deal.rpjs said:
Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.GIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.0 -
Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.CarlottaVance said:0 -
If the Deal passes, then whilst I don't think they'll go back to 7%, I can certainly see them sinking towards the low 10's in the next GE (Which is coming next Spring).isam said:
Well, I said this last week, but the LDemmers don't think so...MarqueeMark said:
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers said there is no need for prorogation
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"0 -
That was the one!!!! Section 55. Thanks JRM IIRC?Henry_C said:First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
So the Benn Act will apply.
Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).0 -
The pressure has been primarly to avoid No Deal, with a secondary and smaller grouping using a second vote as cover for remaining. The votes just aren't there for revoke when there is a deal on the table that prevents No Deal.rpjs said:
Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.GIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.0 -
I think the thing that might tip it for the MPs who have consistently voted against both, is that revocation is much easier to undo than a No Deal exit. So you can rationalise revoke as a different way of delaying, rather than necessarily an endpoint.Andrew said:
Not yet ……… but in a scenario where it's that or no-deal? I think they'd revoke.Pulpstar said:
Are the votes there for revocation ?
I still expect the EU to agree to an extension, but I can see why they would want people to think otherwise.0 -
Gove looks a bit unsteady on his feet again.
https://twitter.com/Jason_Keen/status/11847949493484052480 -
He can now replace the No Deal Budget for something a whole lot rosier.....Pulpstar said:
Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Out of the EU, UK & Ireland the Irish have played a difficult hand well - while both the EU and UK have made serious blunders - though they may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Pleasantly surprised that Johnson has got a deal and it has addressed the problem with the Belfast agreement that the previous deal presented.Pulpstar said:
Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I must admit though it's no more peculiar than solving the Irish question by dumping the DUP and driving the province to early reunification.malcolmg said:
Mental, whilst it may be best option to help independence, it could not be countenanced ever.Alistair said:I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.
Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.0 -
You've not read that in the manner @Drutt wrote it.malcolmg said:
Bollox alertDrutt said:Not sure about the battles of the last three years being re-fought every Olympics by one part of the UK. Thankfully it's a part where the main protagonists are noted for their collegiate approach and rejection of sectarianism.
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They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.Martin_Kinsella said:
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.spudgfsh said:
are there any diesels left on the underground?FrancisUrquhart said:
"It's an electric train!"isam said:
They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.FrancisUrquhart said:Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716
Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.
Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI0 -
If we've learnt anything, its that the HoC is very good at voting 'against' things.Pulpstar said:
Are the votes there for revocation ?rpjs said:
Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.GIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
Boris' deal might not pass but you can count Hoey, the DUP and a good few others in amongst those that'll vote down revocation and the deal.0 -
Hate to say it, but its all the ultra-Remainers have got left. Vote down the deal, hope the EU doesn't grant another extension and then Parliament backs revoke.Andrew said:
Not yet ……… but in a scenario where the deal was voted down, an extension had been refused, and we were days away from a crash no-deal?Pulpstar said:
Are the votes there for revocation ?
I think they'd revoke, don't even think the vote would be close. 340+ ayes.
Government would collapse and GE immediately started, but they wouldn't care. They've got Remain.0 -
Wiki has Ronnie Campbell down as abstaining on MV3.CarlottaVance said:0 -
What a bellend. Yet to hear anyone say they "hate the English". See plenty of bile from knobs like you though.TheValiant said:
I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".williamglenn said:
Wales has the fastest growing movement to break away from the UK. They could surprise you.Noo said:
Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.AlastairMeeks said:
It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.Yellow_Submarine said:
Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.
I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.0 -
That's what I like about this site - there is always someone who knows.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.Martin_Kinsella said:
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.spudgfsh said:
are there any diesels left on the underground?FrancisUrquhart said:
"It's an electric train!"isam said:
They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.FrancisUrquhart said:Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716
Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.
Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI0 -
If the alternative is a Halloween crash-out, yes. Revocation in this context does not mean an abandonment of Brexit, just the UK unilaterally getting an up to two years’ extension.Pulpstar said:
Are the votes there for revocation ?rpjs said:
Except for revoke. Parliament will force the government to do so rather than no deal. Of course the government could reinvoke a moment later, but that just shows that the EU can’t practically deny an extension.GIN1138 said:
It entirely depends whether the EU says no more extensions. It's this deal or no deal.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:So, DUP are confirmed as against.
He needs to offer all the ex-Tory rebels reinstatement of the whip, threaten the ERG with removal of the whip, and get 15-20 Labour rebels on board?
Tough maths,
If they do that then Parliament is left with no where else to go other than to vote for the deal.
Boris' deal might not pass but you can count Hoey, the DUP and a good few others in amongst those that'll vote down revocation and the deal.0 -
Ireland might have a general election before we do.Pulpstar said:
Varadkar has played a hard but fair game all along I feel, he's got his own supply and confidence to keep up with Fianna Fail too something that's often overlooked I think.CarlottaVance said:0 -
My experience of living in all three British countries is that in general the Welsh hate the English, but in general the Scottish don't. Yes, of course, it's easy to find Welsh people who don't and Scottish people who do -- I know these are coarse generalisations.TheValiant said:I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".
Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.
I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.
I think though that you're being a bit dismissive when you talk about "whinging". There is a very real problem with the broad historical lack of support for toryism in Wales and Scotland and the predominance of Conservative governments in London. That's a challenge to the concept of democracy if you have it in mind that Wales and Scotland are nations.
I recognise that many people would resist that, and would consider the UK as a nation, which is fine if that's what you believe, but many don't. And for those people, the challenge detailed above serious undermines the legitimacy of the UK as a state. Therefore, anything undesirable that happens from Westminster decisions take on not just the character of problems to be solved in the existing political arena, but evidence that a new political arena is needed.
Call that whinging if you like, but it doesn't help. Rather, I would argue, it's the unwillingness to take seriously that view and meet it on its own terms that has led to the failure of unionism to kill off Scottish independence even after the referendum defeat.
For all that some people dislike James O'Brien, the staple of a lot of his shows has been to ask "well what laws do you disagree with?" Take the nationalist argument on let people talk it out and -- who knows -- there may be solutions that don't involve dismissing complaints as "fostering grievance" or Scotland leaving the UK. You might find that there is some common ground.
But it's up to you, if you think you're helping, carry on.0 -
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The problem with diesels underground...Sunil_Prasannan said:
They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.Martin_Kinsella said:
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.spudgfsh said:
are there any diesels left on the underground?FrancisUrquhart said:
"It's an electric train!"isam said:
They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.FrancisUrquhart said:Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716
Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.
Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_iYsK8VhE0 -
Because the impasse of the past three years might finally be about to resolve, we are forgetting that this is still the beginning of Brexit. The next stage could easily be worse, and the full range of futures from no deal to rejoin is still on offer. PB’ers who talk as if Brexit goes away and politics somehow returns to normal now are likely to be disappointed.0
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If Boris succeeds in re-uniting the Tory parliamentary party (more-or-less) in voting for the deal, only for it to be voted down very narrowly by a mad combo of Lab/Lib/DUP/SNP the public reaction is likely to be one of immense exasperation. Leading to:
1) Gigantic pressure for an election
2) Huge boost for Boris in polls
And, if an election is denied by the same political junta the pressure will only build as the Brexit crisis continues.
I just wonder if the pressure on Lab MPs to conform and vote against will really be that great...(notwithstanding NickP's views on the matter)
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Juncker has ruled out an extension!0
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Big Boris bounce and then... not so good for him.Big_G_NorthWales said:The polls are going to be very interesting over the next few days
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I think people are making two mirrored mistakes when they say that getting a deal agreed and ratified would leave both the LibDems and the Brexit Party with no arguments and little appeal to voters.
The reason why these are mistakes is that, as we've discussed many times, getting to the transition phase of Brexit doesn't mean Brexit is done and dusted; all that will happen is that negotiations on the final settlement will start, and the domestic political discussion will shift to what should be in that final settlement. Oodles of scope there for the LibDems, and less convincingly Labour, to argue that we should move as close as possible to the EU (in the LibDems' case, with the added objective of eventually rejoining), and for the BXP to argue that any FTA won't be true Brexit and so Leavers should vote BXP to prevent the Conservatives sneaking a half-baked version of Brexit through.
I believe that both of these lines will get quite a bit of traction, although putting figures to any vote shares is anyone's guess.0 -
You have been on the money up till now. Looks like a deal is done now matter now, either immediately if they vote YES or after a landslide in election if they vote NO.MarqueeMark said:
Except, all the rest of the "fantasy" that I have been laying out here in detail for weeks on how we Brexit on 31st October has been slapping you upside the head...Chris said:
I think that's just a fantasy.MarqueeMark said:
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."Henry_C said:First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
So the Benn Act will apply.
Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
Really underhand but it looks like they have done it.0 -
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wow. Will EU 27 back him or throw him under the bus?Philip_Thompson said:Juncker has ruled out an extension!
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Juncker Just said, live on Sky, that he was ruling out an extension.0
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https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184821134258327554?s=20
Saturday is it. The final countdown. Time for making your mind up.
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Getting a foreign leader to threaten the British people into doing what he wants? How did that work for Cameron?Scott_P said:0 -
Macron been on the blower telling them I have had enough of this shit?Time_to_Leave said:Juncker Just said, live on Sky, that he was ruling out an extension.
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The EU sick to the back teeth of Parliament fucking around.0
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Would be interesting if on Saturday Parliament rejected the deal but by single digits, so a letter gets sent under the Benn Act which gets a reply from the EU saying "no extension" and then there is a Boris Deal MV2. Surely would have to go through?0
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Possibly, it sounded like he was supporting GB teams , which I personally disapprove of big time.Pulpstar said:
You've not read that in the manner @Drutt wrote it.malcolmg said:
Bollox alertDrutt said:Not sure about the battles of the last three years being re-fought every Olympics by one part of the UK. Thankfully it's a part where the main protagonists are noted for their collegiate approach and rejection of sectarianism.
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0
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Well, the Rebel Alliance have a bit of a problemo.....0
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Just seen Farage`s comments. He would be well advsed to adopt a congratulatory tone should the governemnt succeed in getting a deal through rather than banging on about it not being Brexit. He played a massively instrumental role in
getting us out of the EU and should bask in this and throw his weight behind the Tories.
I wonder whether he and a few others in the BXP hanker too much to be an MP themselves and have taken their new party (inc millions from small donors) and have overly committed themselves to this new endeavour now.1 -
Yawn.MarqueeMark said:
Their "alternative" has been to over-ride the 17.4m who voted for Brexit.Nigelb said:
Their electoral argument is quite clear.MarqueeMark said:
Well, that's the LibDems buggered then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers said there is no need for prorogation
Looks like the EU are on board by not allowing more time
"The battle to rejoin starts here!"
"You, er, got any other policies?"
"Um...the battle to rejoin starts here!"
A relatively hard Brexit like this enables the twin extremes of British politics, to which they provide an alternative.
How very Liberal, how very Democratic.....
They campaigned against leaving without a further referendum at the last election, and were elected on that basis.1 -
Not his decision though.Philip_Thompson said:Juncker has ruled out an extension!
There seems to be a concerted effort to seem against extensions, but my guess is it's a front to persuade the HoC.1 -
Glasgow Queen Street Low Level isn't really underground. It's basically under a bridge.tlg86 said:
The problem with diesels underground...Sunil_Prasannan said:
They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.Martin_Kinsella said:
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.spudgfsh said:
are there any diesels left on the underground?FrancisUrquhart said:
"It's an electric train!"isam said:
They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.FrancisUrquhart said:Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716
Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.
Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_iYsK8VhE0 -
So my take on today's events:
We aren't leaving.
1. Parliament rejects the deal.
2. EU refuses extension.
3. VONC
4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
5. Revoke A50
6. Referendum on Deal
7. Remain wins referendum
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Not ruling it out? It says that is what he has been saying!Scott_P said:0 -
Boris Johnson would be out of office by the end of the day. The new government would pass legislation for a GE or a 3rd ref and apply for an extension in the changed circumstances.MarqueeMark said:
And if on Saturday Boris reads out a letter from Juncker that says "The 27 heads of state are aware of the provisions of the Benn Act. However, having discussed the matter, the unanimous view is that even if such a request for an extension is received, no further extension will be granted, to 31st January or any other date."Henry_C said:First: to be completed in terms of the Benn Act the agreement must be completed in terms of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which means the EU Parliament must okay it - and they aren't sitting until 21 October.
So the Benn Act will apply.
Second: Section 55, Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018:
"(1) It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain."
"(2) For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended."
So that would have to be repealed by Parliament, which is possible but unlikely. In any case, the first impediment remains.
It's Extension, hold a 3rd ref or a GE before 31 Oct, Revoke or civil war (in decreasing order of probability).
Boris's tanks will just have driven round the Maginot Line.......
If the EU still said no it would be 1) hold an ultra-rapid GE or 3rd ref or 2) hold one (or both) in November and fudge into an "Only De Jure" Brexit in the meantime0 -
How do you know?Burgessian said:If Boris succeeds in re-uniting the Tory parliamentary party (more-or-less) in voting for the deal, only for it to be voted down very narrowly by a mad combo of Lab/Lib/DUP/SNP the public reaction is likely to be one of immense exasperation. Leading to:
1) Gigantic pressure for an election
2) Huge boost for Boris in polls
And, if an election is denied by the same political junta the pressure will only build as the Brexit crisis continues.
I just wonder if the pressure on Lab MPs to conform and vote against will really be that great...(notwithstanding NickP's views on the matter)0 -
You voted to leave. Own it.SandyRentool said:So my take on today's events:
We aren't leaving.
1. Parliament rejects the deal.
2. EU refuses extension.
3. VONC
4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
5. Revoke A50
6. Referendum on Deal
7. Remain wins referendum0 -
Not just the EU sick of the way the HoC has behaved over recent monthsPulpstar said:The EU sick to the back teeth of Parliament fucking around.
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I suspect that if, and it's a big if, parliament votes for a Deal/Remain referendum an extension will be granted as there will be a definitive end date.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Agree, but they would never want to be seen as helping the Tories for any reason. Johnson has shown that he cares about himself far more than the union. He has been derogatory about Scotland for many years.Carnyx said:
I must admit though it's no more peculiar than solving the Irish question by dumping the DUP and driving the province to early reunification.malcolmg said:
Mental, whilst it may be best option to help independence, it could not be countenanced ever.Alistair said:I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.
Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.0 -
Dangerous game for Parliament to assume they're bluffing.Andrew said:
Not his decision though.Philip_Thompson said:Juncker has ruled out an extension!
There seems to be a concerted effort to seem against extensions, but my guess is it's a front to persuade the HoC.0 -
If one or two leaders also rule out an extension on the way in?...0
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I have maintained that view since yesterdayScott_P said:
If confirmed in the EU communique it really is deal time
*Jim Fitzpatrick will vote yes0 -
I am reminded of Paul Newman's comments about Richard Nixon's list at a time like this.malcolmg said:What a bellend. Yet to hear anyone say they "hate the English". See plenty of bile from knobs like you though.
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MV to pass in 2019 just went fav on Betfair.
Premature I think ……. we need to hear from Macron/Merkel.0 -
The different sects of Brexiters hate each other more than they hate their opponents, just the same as the hatred between the various factions within Labour.Stocky said:Just seen Farage`s comments. He would be well advsed to adopt a congratulatory tone should the governemnt succeed in getting a deal through rather than banging on about it not being Brexit. He played a massively instrumental role in
getting us out of the EU and should bask in this and throw his weight behind the Tories.
I wonder whether he and a few others in the BXP hanker too much to be an MP themselves and have taken their new party (inc millions from small donors) and have overly committed themselves to this new endeavour now.0 -
I don't have much time for Labour but if Parliament REALLY wanted an extension they should have stuck Corbyn in charge for a couple of months.0
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Yes I think that is exactly right. We seem to be at the end of the beginning and there is a whole lot of middle bit to come with all competing parties making a play for their vision of the future.Richard_Nabavi said:I think people are making two mirrored mistakes when they say that getting a deal agreed and ratified would leave both the LibDems and the Brexit Party with no arguments and little appeal to voters.
The reason why these are mistakes is that, as we've discussed many times, getting to the transition phase of Brexit doesn't mean Brexit is done and dusted; all that will happen is that negotiations on the final settlement will start, and the domestic political discussion will shift to what should be in that final settlement. Oodles of scope there for the LibDems, and less convincingly Labour, to argue that we should move as close as possible to the EU (in the LibDems' case, with the added objective of eventually rejoining), and for the BXP to argue that any FTA won't be true Brexit and so Leavers should vote BXP to prevent the Conservatives sneaking a half-baked version of Brexit through.
I believe that both of these lines will get quite a bit of traction, although putting figures to any vote shares is anyone's guess.
And why wouldn't Jo 'n Nige do so? They have parties to lead and agendas to agitate for.0 -
I think journalists are over-interpreting. Juncker hasn't said anything about what would happen if the HoC rejects the deal.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The HoC will be meeting on Saturday probably without knowing whether an extesion is to be granted or not. Perhaps the 27 will make their position clear in advance of that.Andrew said:
Not his decision though.Philip_Thompson said:Juncker has ruled out an extension!
There seems to be a concerted effort to seem against extensions, but my guess is it's a front to persuade the HoC.0 -
There's enough people that voted Remain that would vote Deal knowing that a Remain win doesn't put an end to it all like a Deal win does. And also there's enough that would want to "honour the result of the referendum" by doing something, anything! Boris would walk it, I reckon.SandyRentool said:So my take on today's events:
We aren't leaving.
1. Parliament rejects the deal.
2. EU refuses extension.
3. VONC
4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
5. Revoke A50
6. Referendum on Deal
7. Remain wins referendum
0 -
Totally unrelated question, but has anyone seen Orban go in yet?Time_to_Leave said:If one or two leaders also rule out an extension on the way in?...
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I said this in one of my first comments.0
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0
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It wasn’t in the communique , they didn’t mention an extension . MPs might have to decide deal or revoke .Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have maintained that view since yesterdayScott_P said:
If confirmed in the EU communique it really is deal time
*Jim Fitzpatrick will vote yes0 -
Thought: how about if Boris sends a letter today, complying with the Benn Act, and it gets refused.
Contrived theatre of course, but would really clarify things for Saturday's HoC vote.0 -
Good post, very balanced view which is unusual on here.Noo said:
My experience of living in all three British countries is that in general the Welsh hate the English, but in general the Scottish don't. Yes, of course, it's easy to find Welsh people who don't and Scottish people who do -- I know these are coarse generalisations.TheValiant said:I do always love these posts. It's always break away from the UK, when what they really mean is "We hate the English".
Years ago I read an alternative history (For All Time if you're interested), where ENGLAND left the Union first, in the 1960s.
Wales, Scotland and NI stayed together as the rump UK.
I'm a staunch unionist, but sometimes I do wonder if that might be an answer to stop all the whinging.
I think though that you're being a bit dismissive when you talk about "whinging". There is a very real problem with the broad historical lack of support for toryism in Wales and Scotland and the predominance of Conservative governments in London. That's a challenge to the concept of democracy if you have it in mind that Wales and Scotland are nations.
I recognise that many people would resist that, and would consider the UK as a nation, which is fine if that's what you believe, but many don't. And for those people, the challenge detailed above serious undermines the legitimacy of the UK as a state. Therefore, anything undesirable that happens from Westminster decisions take on not just the character of problems to be solved in the existing political arena, but evidence that a new political arena is needed.
Call that whinging if you like, but it doesn't help. Rather, I would argue, it's the unwillingness to take seriously that view and meet it on its own terms that has led to the failure of unionism to kill off Scottish independence even after the referendum defeat.
For all that some people dislike James O'Brien, the staple of a lot of his shows has been to ask "well what laws do you disagree with?" Take the nationalist argument on let people talk it out and -- who knows -- there may be solutions that don't involve dismissing complaints as "fostering grievance" or Scotland leaving the UK. You might find that there is some common ground.
But it's up to you, if you think you're helping, carry on.0 -
Well, I don't, of course. No-one does for sure. My operative words are "is likely" (in my opinion). Happy to see alternative forecasts. It's what the site is about. No?MikeSmithson said:
How do you know?Burgessian said:If Boris succeeds in re-uniting the Tory parliamentary party (more-or-less) in voting for the deal, only for it to be voted down very narrowly by a mad combo of Lab/Lib/DUP/SNP the public reaction is likely to be one of immense exasperation. Leading to:
1) Gigantic pressure for an election
2) Huge boost for Boris in polls
And, if an election is denied by the same political junta the pressure will only build as the Brexit crisis continues.
I just wonder if the pressure on Lab MPs to conform and vote against will really be that great...(notwithstanding NickP's views on the matter)0 -
Point 7 (Remain wins referendum) is in doubt if the campaign is led by the same idiots as last time with their relentlessly negative campaigning. Their regret last time was that they had not been negative enough, so be careful what you wish for.SandyRentool said:So my take on today's events:
We aren't leaving.
1. Parliament rejects the deal.
2. EU refuses extension.
3. VONC
4. PM Jezza or A.N.Other
5. Revoke A50
6. Referendum on Deal
7. Remain wins referendum0 -
"If we have a deal.." but if the Commons votes against then he doesn't have a deal. The UK is a Parliamentary democracy.CarlottaVance said:0 -
My Lords! Dreadful! More of that kind of thing on PB please!tlg86 said:
The problem with diesels underground...Sunil_Prasannan said:
They have some Schoma diesel shunters that can squeeze into the narrower tunnels. A couple of them hauled the Cravens Heritage Train all the way past Epping to North Weald and Ongar a few years ago.Martin_Kinsella said:
It's all electric. Pretty sure of that. Diesel trains underground is a no no.spudgfsh said:
are there any diesels left on the underground?FrancisUrquhart said:
"It's an electric train!"isam said:
They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.FrancisUrquhart said:Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716
Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.
Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_iYsK8VhE
I normally have to go to other, specialist websites to get my regular fix of 37 action!0 -
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I've just been told down thread that is a "fantasy"! lol!Andrew said:Thought: how about if Boris sends a letter today, complying with the Benn Act, and it gets refused.
Contrived theatre of course, but would really clarify things for Saturday's HoC vote.
All part of the ballet required to get this Deal done by 31st, in my oft-stated view.....0 -
Gods the dup are ridiculous. This is the start my arse. Its the end you twerps1
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Indeed - if thenext general electin takes place after we have left, the discussion will be all about wat kind of final deal we will have. The Johnson one looks suspiciously lke it has been desiged to secure an FTA with the US on terms dictated byt he US. That puts the NHS and chlorinated chicken firmly on the agenda for Labour and the LDs. The more Johnson denies that this is the case, the more BXP gets to talk about Brexit In Name Only.Richard_Nabavi said:I think people are making two mirrored mistakes when they say that getting a deal agreed and ratified would leave both the LibDems and the Brexit Party with no arguments and little appeal to voters.
The reason why these are mistakes is that, as we've discussed many times, getting to the transition phase of Brexit doesn't mean Brexit is done and dusted; all that will happen is that negotiations on the final settlement will start, and the domestic political discussion will shift to what should be in that final settlement. Oodles of scope there for the LibDems, and less convincingly Labour, to argue that we should move as close as possible to the EU (in the LibDems' case, with the added objective of eventually rejoining), and for the BXP to argue that any FTA won't be true Brexit and so Leavers should vote BXP to prevent the Conservatives sneaking a half-baked version of Brexit through.
I believe that both of these lines will get quite a bit of traction, although putting figures to any vote shares is anyone's guess.
0 -
The willingness of Brexiteers to leap immediately upon a Juncker pronouncement as authoritative (& thus helpful to their cause) is quite the thing. Not calling him Druncker now, are ye?0
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Junker has no power to grant or block an extension. it is entirely down to the council.CarlottaVance said:0
