politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one
brexit: caught between a cock and a hard face pic.twitter.com/8aOkfH7Vmh
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Hope it passes.0
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Me too0
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Just hope Bridgen and Francois vote against it and have the whip removed.Scrapheap_as_was said:Me too
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What is the rebel amendment?Scott_P said:0 -
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https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184787627762946049?s=20FrancisUrquhart said:
What is the rebel amendment?Scott_P said:0 -
Me too!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Just hope Bridgen and Francois vote against it and have the whip removed.Scrapheap_as_was said:Me too
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This is why Apple are awesome, Samsung like Android is shite.
A flaw that means any fingerprint can unlock a Galaxy S10 phone has been acknowledged by Samsung.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-500805860 -
The biggest chance Boris has of getting this passed is the Council giving him a “no more extensions” gun to hold to peoples heads.
I think he just might do it, but then I thought MPs would fall into line behind the May deal eventually and look how that turned out.0 -
Erhhhhh...raises hand....iCraps have had similar problems in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why Apple are awesome, Samsung like Android is shite.
A flaw that means any fingerprint can unlock a Galaxy S10 phone has been acknowledged by Samsung.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-500805860 -
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ERGer Simon Clarke is for it.0
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Sounds like fake news to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Erhhhhh...raises hand....iCraps have had similar problems in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:This is why Apple are awesome, Samsung like Android is shite.
A flaw that means any fingerprint can unlock a Galaxy S10 phone has been acknowledged by Samsung.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-500805860 -
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184798611508473858numbertwelve said:The biggest chance Boris has of getting this passed is the Council giving him a “no more extensions” gun to hold to peoples heads.
I think he just might do it, but then I thought MPs would fall into line behind the May deal eventually and look how that turned out.0 -
However this turns out, bloody well done Boris! I hope the Deal gets through, but if the assorted rabble in Parliament vote it down, then the election battle lines are very favourably drawn for him.0
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So is Faragr supporting the deal??0
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https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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Surely not. My view of Farage is he's made a career out of Brexit not happening and moaning on the sidelines when there was a window for it to happen and thus he just wishes to prolong his career yet longer with as much delay as possible.Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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Will be over 50% chance of it not passing if DUP vote against it.0
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FPT
Peter_the_Punter said:
So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.
Everybody happy?
SNP suggested that in 2016 , only with Scotland also in the EU and Tories ignored it.0 -
He's got support from a few diehards below the line but plenty of replies suggesting his fox is shot.Richard_Nabavi said:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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FPT
Agree with that. But especially in an election campaign with guaranteed airtime for the other parties (either before Brexit or even before the future relationship is sorted), I can see him having to make a more nuanced defence of this deal than your average Cummings strategy allows.philiph said:
buffeted from every side.Harris_Tweed said:
I don't think the EU leaders will make a watertight 'take it or leave it' commitment. There might be some warm words commending it to the house and implicit threats that this is as good as it gets. But I reckon they'd leave the door open for a gamble on another six months in the hope of the existing or new HOC forcing a new referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like Boris is actively making it redundant by persuading the EU leaders to rule out an extension. Let us see what is in the final communiqueIanB2 said:
If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.Brom said:
This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.Andrew said:
Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.dyedwoolie said:
Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder
This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.
If Boris doesn't get and keep control of the narrative and is forced to defend a deal in an election or referendum against charges of "BINO" from Farage and "Singapore on Thames" from Corbyn, he risks turning into May Mark 2.. buffeted from every side. So he's surely banking on getting it through quite painlessly, or he'd have been better off failing to get a deal and fighting his "people v parliament" election.
As to the Commons maths... I think most ERG will fall into line, but I bet there'll be one or two hold-outs. I wouldn't be surprised if rebels who've announced they're retiring (or have already more or less been kicked out locally) keep rebelling, though others will vote in favour if it gets them back in.
With Labour whipping against and the DUP not in favour, I still think any confidence in a majority is misplaced.
(But frankly anything could happen
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Not is the way May was. He has removed the whip, appears to be resisting buffeting from DUP. He may not have enough votes, but will appear stronger than May0 -
So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.Richard_Nabavi said:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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They're not revived, lots of Brexiteers below his tweet in favour of Boris' deal.Stereotomy said:
So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.Richard_Nabavi said:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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For the first time, me too.TheScreamingEagles said:Hope it passes.
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Interesting, what got you on board?Philip_Thompson said:
For the first time, me too.TheScreamingEagles said:Hope it passes.
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DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.1
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Yes, but it's hard to predict what that means in terms of vote share.Pulpstar said:
He's got support from a few diehards below the line but plenty of replies suggesting his fox is shot.Richard_Nabavi said:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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Well okay, we'll have to wait and see. It's true that a lot of CON->BXP voters are probably a lot warmer to Johnson than they were May and may give him the benefit of the doubt. How the numbers will shake out is hard to predictPulpstar said:
They're not revived, lots of Brexiteers below his tweet in favour of Boris' deal.Stereotomy said:
So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.Richard_Nabavi said:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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Farage is cranking up his machine again. The DUP is a firm No. Unless Corbyn cocks it all up we are heading for a ' People's Vote ' via a General Election. Leave with Boris' deal vs Remain via palliative care then euthanasia of Brexit.
All to play for.0 -
Definitely. As someone who voted BXP at the Euros Im now firmly behind this deal.Pulpstar said:
They're not revived, lots of Brexiteers below his tweet in favour of Boris' deal.Stereotomy said:
So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.Richard_Nabavi said:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121Gabs2 said:So is Faragr supporting the deal??
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All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.0
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The GFA (specifically the assembly it set up) clearly isn't working properly anyway. There's need to get them together and to find new solutions. especially the 30 vote rule and the nationalist/unionist/other rules.Danny565 said:DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.
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I'm not sure even the great Lady Sylvia will go along with it this time.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
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aren't all of the nationalist ones too? it's a coming together of the two sides...AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
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For the LOLZ Sinn Fein should turn up on Saturday to vote for this deal.
Would largely negate the DUP votes.0 -
People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.Yellow_Submarine said:Farage is cranking up his machine again. The DUP is a firm No. Unless Corbyn cocks it all up we are heading for a ' People's Vote ' via a General Election. Leave with Boris' deal vs Remain via palliative care then euthanasia of Brexit.
All to play for.1 -
Just get their mate Corbyn to endorse it.TheScreamingEagles said:For the LOLZ Sinn Fein should turn up on Saturday to vote for this deal.
Would largely negate the DUP votes.0 -
I’m marvelling at this idea of the DUP as protector of the Good Friday Agreement.spudgfsh said:
The GFA (specifically the assembly it set up) clearly isn't working properly anyway. There's need to get them together and to find new solutions. especially the 30 vote rule and the nationalist/unionist/other rules.Danny565 said:DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.
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So it looks like this comes down to whether there 20-25 Labour MPs who are willing to take the step needed to bring the country together, put Brexit behind us and move politics back towards other issues.0
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https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1184803470295097347Brom said:People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.
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Meanwhile, a thread on how the history of political geography translates to modern voting patterns
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/11812921771309998081 -
It’s a technical one that provides them with more room to manoeuvre on SaturdayFrancisUrquhart said:
What is the rebel amendment?Scott_P said:0 -
Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
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No, it still has a backstop, albeit a greatly modified one.malcolmg said:FPT
Peter_the_Punter said:
So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.
Everybody happy?
SNP suggested that in 2016 , only with Scotland also in the EU and Tories ignored it.
It's not wildly different from May's deal, possibly an improvement in some respects, and worse in others.
The most significant difference is that is was negotiated by a PM slightly better at persuading/lying/selling (delete to taste), who helped kill the previous deal in order to become PM.
Having run against Brexit at the last election, the Lib Dems are more than justified in voting against it (I'd argue differently if the proposal was EEA). Labour's position is a little more... obscure.1 -
Looks pretty clear from their utterings that the DUp will oppose0
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If this deal falls, there will inevitably be a general election. Labour will go to the electorate saying to Leave votes they voted down May's deal, Johnson's deal and No Deal, and saying to Remain voters they want a referendum but will negotiate their own deal, but will really support Remain, but much more enthusiastically than Corbyn did last time, honest.Brom said:
People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.Yellow_Submarine said:Farage is cranking up his machine again. The DUP is a firm No. Unless Corbyn cocks it all up we are heading for a ' People's Vote ' via a General Election. Leave with Boris' deal vs Remain via palliative care then euthanasia of Brexit.
All to play for.0 -
It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.Yellow_Submarine said:
Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
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Can a single motion really present a choice?CarlottaVance said:
I thought MPs have to vote yea or nay not choice a) or choice b).
(IANAE of course)0 -
It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.GideonWise said:It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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Consent.Stereotomy said:
Interesting, what got you on board?Philip_Thompson said:
For the first time, me too.TheScreamingEagles said:Hope it passes.
My issue was always on principle the matter of democracy and ongoing consent. I have suggested repeatedly here that some form of ongoing consent mechanism would be acceptable whereas a permanent backstop with no legal [under international law] unilateral exit mechanism was not.
The arrangements for NI now are time limited and are renewable if the people of NI vote for it to be renewed. That is appropriate, it is logical and it is a massive improvement on May's deal on a matter of deep principle to me.0 -
The LibDems best chance is if Labour fails to deliver on its support for a referendum and a batch of Labour MPs helps Bozo across the line.Scott_P said:0 -
The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.Theuniondivvie said:
It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.GideonWise said:It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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Not so long that some were arguing the DUP’s “success” proves that C&S is less doomed to disaster for the junior party than coalition....0
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So if the Tories start on 283 (taking off 4 uber Spartans?) They need another 37, maybe 36 if omara is still AWOL.
There are 19 ex Tories, 20 incl Boles. Grieve greening and Hammond probably no, maybe a few more., let's give them half the ex Tories 10
26 more........
Of the indies count out Hoey now as DUP against, he ought to get 5 or 6, Mann is now going to turn up and vote yes, Field, Austin, Elphicke, maybe Lewis and Lloyd, maybe Lamb
Give him 5
Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard0 -
Which means if the EU say no extension it will pass very easily imodyedwoolie said:So if the Tories start on 283 (taking off 4 uber Spartans?) They need another 37, maybe 36 if omara is still AWOL.
There are 19 ex Tories, 20 incl Boles. Grieve greening and Hammond probably no, maybe a few more., let's give them half the ex Tories 10
26 more........
Of the indies count out Hoey now as DUP against, he ought to get 5 or 6, Mann is now going to turn up and vote yes, Field, Austin, Elphicke, maybe Lewis and Lloyd, maybe Lamb
Give him 5
Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard0 -
And Farage's level playing field complaints are ridiculous. The EU-Canada deal has them, which is the sort of FTA he has been advocating for for the last three years.Philip_Thompson said:
The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.Theuniondivvie said:
It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.GideonWise said:It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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The DUP (With the exception of Pengelly I think) will keep their seats at a GE. Their support like Trump's approval ratings doesn't vary much.Philip_Thompson said:
The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.Theuniondivvie said:
It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.GideonWise said:It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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Yes, and it will get easier over time. Once the Union becomes contingent and transactional for one part who will really ' die in a ditch ' for Scotland ? Etc etc. I'm confident Nicola Sturgeon 8s looking at the detail of the ' frontstop ' with a satisfied smile.AlastairMeeks said:
It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.Yellow_Submarine said:
Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
I started my Kubler-Ross process for my Britishness on 24/6/16 and that decision is paying off.0 -
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The DUP sending the £ back down again....0
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Under May's deal, the intention was that the backstop would never come into effect. Johnson wants to impose a version of it as a permanent solution. It's much worse from their perspective.Philip_Thompson said:
The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.Theuniondivvie said:
It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.GideonWise said:It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.
Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.1 -
You are right.Benpointer said:
Can a single motion really present a choice?CarlottaVance said:
I thought MPs have to vote yea or nay not choice a) or choice b).
(IANAE of course)
We are watching a PR battle over “what happens if the deal is rejected?”0 -
It will hardly end their career. Corbyn will be gone before long anyway.Scott_P said:0 -
As others have pointed out, their price is the Union. Until they're convinced that BJ Shenanigans is protecting it, there will be no getting on board.Philip_Thompson said:
The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.Theuniondivvie said:
It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.GideonWise said:It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.
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Brilliant! Reminds me of thisScott_P said:
https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1184803470295097347Brom said:People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.
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That has been my play-book, spelt out on here for weeks. It also makes the DUP's consent irrelevent.CarlottaVance said:
And no, I'm not Dominic Cummings.....0 -
No change there then....TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing is it makes Boris look better. He is doing something, everybody else just does Computer Says No, and from the polling it seems the public want something doing not more buggering about by MPs.0 -
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That tweet could have been edited in a way that better preserved the grammar...CarlottaVance said:0 -
That's another reason today is seminal. The DUP are the first group who backed Leave for tactical reasons who are getting the just deserts if their strategic mistake. They won't be the last.IanB2 said:Not so long that some were arguing the DUP’s “success” proves that C&S is less doomed to disaster for the junior party than coalition....
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My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.dyedwoolie said:
Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard
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Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .
And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.2 -
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Boris engaging constructively with the EU and obtaining a deal, committed to Brexit.
All opposition seeking to frustrate Brexit.
Opposition walking into a GE elephant trap of gargantuan proportions0 -
Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.AlastairMeeks said:
It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.Yellow_Submarine said:
Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.0 -
Och, he can be forgiven a little grammatical loucheness after such a triumph of cake possessing and consuming. Might be a sugar rush?williamglenn said:
That tweet could have been edited in a way that better preserved the grammar...CarlottaVance said:0 -
I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....Andrew said:
My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.dyedwoolie said:
Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard
He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win0 -
A bad deal is better than no deal. I thought it with May's one. I think now with something that is objectively worse. The key thing now is the final FTA. Let's hope we get one that is desiged for British citizens and British businesses, not for US corporations.0
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Wales tends to mirror England in terms of Brexit support too. The Tories could even outvote Labour there next GE...Noo said:
Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.AlastairMeeks said:
It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.Yellow_Submarine said:
Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.AlastairMeeks said:All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.0 -
Its really not too early. An additional 30-40 votes are needed depending how many recant from last time. Not many more than that are even amenable so you need nearly all of them.DavidL said:
I think its too early to say the numbers aren't there. We have the 21, many but not all of whom wanted a deal, we have Stephen Kinnock's Labour faction that wants a deal, we have the DUP probably opposing, we have more odds and sods in this dysfunctional Parliament than we have had in my lifetime. I really don't know how to call it.eek said:
This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.DavidL said:
I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.OblitusSumMe said:The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.
While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.
Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.
It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
That would be a game changer if true. It's also the only chance any deal has of passing sans referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky already reporting multiple EU leaders accept Boris argument for no further extensionsnico67 said:Not sure the EU will go for no extension and it’s either this deal or no deal .
Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .
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