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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’

SystemSystem Posts: 12,550
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

brexit: caught between a cock and a hard face pic.twitter.com/8aOkfH7Vmh

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Hope it passes.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Me too
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184798037903847426
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Me too

    Just hope Bridgen and Francois vote against it and have the whip removed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,249
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184798037903847426

    What is the rebel amendment?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1184798551429255168
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184798037903847426

    What is the rebel amendment?
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184787627762946049?s=20
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Me too

    Just hope Bridgen and Francois vote against it and have the whip removed.
    Me too!!!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    This is why Apple are awesome, Samsung like Android is shite.

    A flaw that means any fingerprint can unlock a Galaxy S10 phone has been acknowledged by Samsung.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50080586
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,665
    The biggest chance Boris has of getting this passed is the Council giving him a “no more extensions” gun to hold to peoples heads.

    I think he just might do it, but then I thought MPs would fall into line behind the May deal eventually and look how that turned out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,249
    edited October 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is why Apple are awesome, Samsung like Android is shite.

    A flaw that means any fingerprint can unlock a Galaxy S10 phone has been acknowledged by Samsung.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50080586

    Erhhhhh...raises hand....iCraps have had similar problems in the past.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Prolly needs 10ish of them to pass?

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1184796464897298432
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    ERGer Simon Clarke is for it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is why Apple are awesome, Samsung like Android is shite.

    A flaw that means any fingerprint can unlock a Galaxy S10 phone has been acknowledged by Samsung.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50080586

    Erhhhhh...raises hand....iCraps have had similar problems in the past.
    Sounds like fake news to me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    numbertwelve said:

    The biggest chance Boris has of getting this passed is the Council giving him a “no more extensions” gun to hold to peoples heads.

    I think he just might do it, but then I thought MPs would fall into line behind the May deal eventually and look how that turned out.

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184798611508473858
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    However this turns out, bloody well done Boris! I hope the Deal gets through, but if the assorted rabble in Parliament vote it down, then the election battle lines are very favourably drawn for him.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    So is Faragr supporting the deal??
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1184799867157336065

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1184799975089291266
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    No.

    He's said it's not really Brexit because of level playing field regulations.

    In fact, he's previously said any Treaty isn't really leaving. He is No-Deal or Nothing at this point. Quite a journey even for him...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184796814509314048?s=20
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    Surely not. My view of Farage is he's made a career out of Brexit not happening and moaning on the sidelines when there was a window for it to happen and thus he just wishes to prolong his career yet longer with as much delay as possible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1184799446477033472?s=20
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Will be over 50% chance of it not passing if DUP vote against it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    FPT
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.

    Everybody happy?

    SNP suggested that in 2016 , only with Scotland also in the EU and Tories ignored it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
    He's got support from a few diehards below the line but plenty of replies suggesting his fox is shot.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1184800545644650501?s=20
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    FPT
    philiph said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Brom said:

    Andrew said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

    This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
    If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.
    Looks like Boris is actively making it redundant by persuading the EU leaders to rule out an extension. Let us see what is in the final communique
    I don't think the EU leaders will make a watertight 'take it or leave it' commitment. There might be some warm words commending it to the house and implicit threats that this is as good as it gets. But I reckon they'd leave the door open for a gamble on another six months in the hope of the existing or new HOC forcing a new referendum.

    If Boris doesn't get and keep control of the narrative and is forced to defend a deal in an election or referendum against charges of "BINO" from Farage and "Singapore on Thames" from Corbyn, he risks turning into May Mark 2.. buffeted from every side. So he's surely banking on getting it through quite painlessly, or he'd have been better off failing to get a deal and fighting his "people v parliament" election.

    As to the Commons maths... I think most ERG will fall into line, but I bet there'll be one or two hold-outs. I wouldn't be surprised if rebels who've announced they're retiring (or have already more or less been kicked out locally) keep rebelling, though others will vote in favour if it gets them back in.

    With Labour whipping against and the DUP not in favour, I still think any confidence in a majority is misplaced.

    (But frankly anything could happen :))
    buffeted from every side.

    Not is the way May was. He has removed the whip, appears to be resisting buffeting from DUP. He may not have enough votes, but will appear stronger than May
    Agree with that. But especially in an election campaign with guaranteed airtime for the other parties (either before Brexit or even before the future relationship is sorted), I can see him having to make a more nuanced defence of this deal than your average Cummings strategy allows.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
    So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1184801507704737793
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
    So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.
    They're not revived, lots of Brexiteers below his tweet in favour of Boris' deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hope it passes.

    For the first time, me too.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hope it passes.

    For the first time, me too.
    Interesting, what got you on board?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
    He's got support from a few diehards below the line but plenty of replies suggesting his fox is shot.
    Yes, but it's hard to predict what that means in terms of vote share.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Pulpstar said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
    So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.
    They're not revived, lots of Brexiteers below his tweet in favour of Boris' deal.
    Well okay, we'll have to wait and see. It's true that a lot of CON->BXP voters are probably a lot warmer to Johnson than they were May and may give him the benefit of the doubt. How the numbers will shake out is hard to predict
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Farage is cranking up his machine again. The DUP is a firm No. Unless Corbyn cocks it all up we are heading for a ' People's Vote ' via a General Election. Leave with Boris' deal vs Remain via palliative care then euthanasia of Brexit.

    All to play for.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gabs2 said:

    So is Faragr supporting the deal??

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184790307164037121
    So Boris revives the BXP for the sake of another deal that won't pass parliament. Great.
    They're not revived, lots of Brexiteers below his tweet in favour of Boris' deal.
    Definitely. As someone who voted BXP at the Euros Im now firmly behind this deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1184801989932154881
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,567
    Danny565 said:

    DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.

    The GFA (specifically the assembly it set up) clearly isn't working properly anyway. There's need to get them together and to find new solutions. especially the 30 vote rule and the nationalist/unionist/other rules.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    I'm not sure even the great Lady Sylvia will go along with it this time.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,567
    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    aren't all of the nationalist ones too? it's a coming together of the two sides...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    For the LOLZ Sinn Fein should turn up on Saturday to vote for this deal.

    Would largely negate the DUP votes.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1184802818537996289
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Farage is cranking up his machine again. The DUP is a firm No. Unless Corbyn cocks it all up we are heading for a ' People's Vote ' via a General Election. Leave with Boris' deal vs Remain via palliative care then euthanasia of Brexit.

    All to play for.

    People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the LOLZ Sinn Fein should turn up on Saturday to vote for this deal.

    Would largely negate the DUP votes.

    Just get their mate Corbyn to endorse it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    spudgfsh said:

    Danny565 said:

    DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.

    The GFA (specifically the assembly it set up) clearly isn't working properly anyway. There's need to get them together and to find new solutions. especially the 30 vote rule and the nationalist/unionist/other rules.
    I’m marvelling at this idea of the DUP as protector of the Good Friday Agreement.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    So it looks like this comes down to whether there 20-25 Labour MPs who are willing to take the step needed to bring the country together, put Brexit behind us and move politics back towards other issues.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brom said:

    People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1184803470295097347
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Meanwhile, a thread on how the history of political geography translates to modern voting patterns
    https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1181292177130999808
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184798037903847426

    What is the rebel amendment?
    It’s a technical one that provides them with more room to manoeuvre on Saturday
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/Brigid_Fowler/status/1184801643415646209?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,850
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.

    Everybody happy?

    SNP suggested that in 2016 , only with Scotland also in the EU and Tories ignored it.

    No, it still has a backstop, albeit a greatly modified one.

    It's not wildly different from May's deal, possibly an improvement in some respects, and worse in others.
    The most significant difference is that is was negotiated by a PM slightly better at persuading/lying/selling (delete to taste), who helped kill the previous deal in order to become PM.

    Having run against Brexit at the last election, the Lib Dems are more than justified in voting against it (I'd argue differently if the proposal was EEA). Labour's position is a little more... obscure.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Looks pretty clear from their utterings that the DUp will oppose
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Brom said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Farage is cranking up his machine again. The DUP is a firm No. Unless Corbyn cocks it all up we are heading for a ' People's Vote ' via a General Election. Leave with Boris' deal vs Remain via palliative care then euthanasia of Brexit.

    All to play for.

    People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.
    If this deal falls, there will inevitably be a general election. Labour will go to the electorate saying to Leave votes they voted down May's deal, Johnson's deal and No Deal, and saying to Remain voters they want a referendum but will negotiate their own deal, but will really support Remain, but much more enthusiastically than Corbyn did last time, honest.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Danny565 said:

    DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.

    So they are for it now?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1184804932781776897
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Brigid_Fowler/status/1184801643415646209?s=20

    Can a single motion really present a choice?

    I thought MPs have to vote yea or nay not choice a) or choice b).

    (IANAE of course)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    GideonWise said:

    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

    It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Stereotomy said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hope it passes.

    For the first time, me too.
    Interesting, what got you on board?
    Consent.

    My issue was always on principle the matter of democracy and ongoing consent. I have suggested repeatedly here that some form of ongoing consent mechanism would be acceptable whereas a permanent backstop with no legal [under international law] unilateral exit mechanism was not.

    The arrangements for NI now are time limited and are renewable if the people of NI vote for it to be renewed. That is appropriate, it is logical and it is a massive improvement on May's deal on a matter of deep principle to me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1184804932781776897

    The LibDems best chance is if Labour fails to deliver on its support for a referendum and a batch of Labour MPs helps Bozo across the line.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Theuniondivvie said:

    GideonWise said:

    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

    It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.
    The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Not so long that some were arguing the DUP’s “success” proves that C&S is less doomed to disaster for the junior party than coalition....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    So if the Tories start on 283 (taking off 4 uber Spartans?) They need another 37, maybe 36 if omara is still AWOL.
    There are 19 ex Tories, 20 incl Boles. Grieve greening and Hammond probably no, maybe a few more., let's give them half the ex Tories 10
    26 more........
    Of the indies count out Hoey now as DUP against, he ought to get 5 or 6, Mann is now going to turn up and vote yes, Field, Austin, Elphicke, maybe Lewis and Lloyd, maybe Lamb
    Give him 5
    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dyedwoolie said:

    So if the Tories start on 283 (taking off 4 uber Spartans?) They need another 37, maybe 36 if omara is still AWOL.
    There are 19 ex Tories, 20 incl Boles. Grieve greening and Hammond probably no, maybe a few more., let's give them half the ex Tories 10
    26 more........
    Of the indies count out Hoey now as DUP against, he ought to get 5 or 6, Mann is now going to turn up and vote yes, Field, Austin, Elphicke, maybe Lewis and Lloyd, maybe Lamb
    Give him 5
    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    Which means if the EU say no extension it will pass very easily imo
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    GideonWise said:

    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

    It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.
    The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.
    And Farage's level playing field complaints are ridiculous. The EU-Canada deal has them, which is the sort of FTA he has been advocating for for the last three years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    GideonWise said:

    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

    It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.
    The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.
    The DUP (With the exception of Pengelly I think) will keep their seats at a GE. Their support like Trump's approval ratings doesn't vary much.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Yes, and it will get easier over time. Once the Union becomes contingent and transactional for one part who will really ' die in a ditch ' for Scotland ? Etc etc. I'm confident Nicola Sturgeon 8s looking at the detail of the ' frontstop ' with a satisfied smile.

    I started my Kubler-Ross process for my Britishness on 24/6/16 and that decision is paying off.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1184806221267787777
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    The DUP sending the £ back down again....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1184804506003001344?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    GideonWise said:

    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

    It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.
    The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.
    Under May's deal, the intention was that the backstop would never come into effect. Johnson wants to impose a version of it as a permanent solution. It's much worse from their perspective.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    The DUP sending the £ back down again....

    That's ok for them, they'll be using the € before long
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2019
    I see Wings is now advocating that the SNP should support Boris Johnson.

    Full Zoomer to the max. Fucking brilliant analysis that is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Benpointer said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Brigid_Fowler/status/1184801643415646209?s=20

    Can a single motion really present a choice?

    I thought MPs have to vote yea or nay not choice a) or choice b).

    (IANAE of course)
    You are right.

    We are watching a PR battle over “what happens if the deal is rejected?”
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1184806221267787777

    It will hardly end their career. Corbyn will be gone before long anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1184806218650533893?s=21
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    GideonWise said:

    It was Theresa's fuck-up that has meant all the negotiations has had to go through this rabble known as the DUP. It's time the tail stopped wagging the dog.

    It seems the freezing of the hearts of England's Brexiteers towards the DUP is well underway.
    The DUP will see that too and if they reject this they could lose seats at the General Election and will certainly lose influence. Now is the time to name their price and approve the deal, it is massively improved on May's deal.
    As others have pointed out, their price is the Union. Until they're convinced that BJ Shenanigans is protecting it, there will be no getting on board.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,123
    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    People's Vote is dead. We all know it. Remainers will regret not voting through this deal, it's the best they'll get.

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1184803470295097347
    Brilliant! Reminds me of this


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,298
    edited October 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1184800545644650501?s=20

    That has been my play-book, spelt out on here for weeks. It also makes the DUP's consent irrelevent.

    And no, I'm not Dominic Cummings.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,249
    edited October 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1184806218650533893?s=21

    No change there then....

    The thing is it makes Boris look better. He is doing something, everybody else just does Computer Says No, and from the polling it seems the public want something doing not more buggering about by MPs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1184806937084514304
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,019
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1184804506003001344?s=20

    That tweet could have been edited in a way that better preserved the grammar...
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    IanB2 said:

    Not so long that some were arguing the DUP’s “success” proves that C&S is less doomed to disaster for the junior party than coalition....

    That's another reason today is seminal. The DUP are the first group who backed Leave for tactical reasons who are getting the just deserts if their strategic mistake. They won't be the last.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    dyedwoolie said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigel Farage is a pathetic weasally parody of a Brexiteer. We have a good deal here with a transition and a Political Declaration and agreement that we are seeking a Free Trade Agreement. It is a proper exit from the EU and exactly what Brexiteers including him campaigned for during the referendum . . .

    And he's now calling not for an exit of the EU with this but an extension and an election where Brexit could be overturned? Don't be ridiculous! The backstop had fundamental problems, they've been dealt with, now only people who don't want Brexit will oppose this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1184806221267787777

    It will hardly end their career. Corbyn will be gone before long anyway.
    If only there was a place the Gov't could send people to earn £300 a day just for showing up...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Noo said:

    Danny565 said:

    DUP claim the deal "drives a coach and horses" through the Good Friday Agreement.

    So they are for it now?
    LOL!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Boris engaging constructively with the EU and obtaining a deal, committed to Brexit.
    All opposition seeking to frustrate Brexit.
    Opposition walking into a GE elephant trap of gargantuan proportions
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1184807639739502592?s=20
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1184804506003001344?s=20

    That tweet could have been edited in a way that better preserved the grammar...
    Och, he can be forgiven a little grammatical loucheness after such a triumph of cake possessing and consuming. Might be a sugar rush?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Andrew said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Hes going to need about 21 labour votes, fewer of more of the Ex Tories climb aboard

    My guesstimates came up with similar numbers, maybe a touch higher on ex-Tories, but in the 300-305 bucket overall atm ………. plus any that come from Mr Kinnock's chunk, although hunch is that's zero.

    I think it depends on if no or only short extension intimated.....
    He ought to get a min 5 labour/mps for a deal. Letwin on board is a big win
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    A bad deal is better than no deal. I thought it with May's one. I think now with something that is objectively worse. The key thing now is the final FTA. Let's hope we get one that is desiged for British citizens and British businesses, not for US corporations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Noo said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Yellow_Submarine said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    All the northern Irish unionist parties are opposed to the latest deal. Can’t see that causing any problems.

    Today is the first definitive proof of what we've all known was coming. That the Conservative Party is now a post-unionist party. And with that news that the UK now has no UK wide governing party of a capital U unionist nature. The psychological shock will take a while to work through.
    It is now a populist English nationalist party. The consequences will be that those parts of the union outside England will all in due course make their excuses and leave.
    Not Wales. Wales is the definition of Stockholm syndrome.
    In my experience Welsh people have a superficial hatred of the English but a deeper hatred of themselves.
    Wales tends to mirror England in terms of Brexit support too. The Tories could even outvote Labour there next GE...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
    This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.

    It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
    I think its too early to say the numbers aren't there. We have the 21, many but not all of whom wanted a deal, we have Stephen Kinnock's Labour faction that wants a deal, we have the DUP probably opposing, we have more odds and sods in this dysfunctional Parliament than we have had in my lifetime. I really don't know how to call it.
    Its really not too early. An additional 30-40 votes are needed depending how many recant from last time. Not many more than that are even amenable so you need nearly all of them.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure the EU will go for no extension and it’s either this deal or no deal .

    Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .

    Sky already reporting multiple EU leaders accept Boris argument for no further extensions
    That would be a game changer if true. It's also the only chance any deal has of passing sans referendum.

This discussion has been closed.