politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the out

Fat chance.

Third!

The Leave vote politicians are shameless in changing their intepretations of the vote overtime. It is a good reason why a second vote on a deal or remain is essential...

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

I have a bad feeling you will be left feeling stranded, when the tide goes out and an extension is agreed! No Deal by the way probably means a very long wait for a trade deal...

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agree to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

But they won't remove the backstop, so it can't be delivered in the real world rather than the fantasy world of the braindead Brexiteer. The person that you are such an unapologetic fan-boy for is a liar and a cheat. He knows it, I know it. Somehow, you seem quaintly unaware.

Cameron should have sacked Penny Mordaunt - on the spot - when she refused to clarify that we have a veto on Turkey joining.

Ever since then, there's been no accountability for outright lying and it's just grown and grown to where it hardly matters what the vote was actually won on.

A crucial moment of weakness.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.

Anyone who suggests that I voted the way I did because of the official leave campaign is plain wrong.

Perhaps you like to vote without thinking for yourself, but I try not to.

"Your were making a lot of noise"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7574535/The-Queen-tells-schoolboy-noisy-refuses-cup-tea-shes-busy.html

I wonder if she said the same thing to Boris?

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.

Yellow_Submarine said:

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.

Everyone who voted for leave voted for their own unique (unicorn) imagined version of Brexit.

It's why leaving is proving to be such a problem as no-one can agree on what our relationships need to look like.

Alistair said:

Imagine being so corrupt John Bolton wants no part of it

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1183936219631280128?s=19

We are getting to circular firing squad here.

Good.

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.

Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive

A narrow vote in favour that realistically might be overturned in second referendum is absolutely the only thing Leave has going for it. We have years of crapness to look forward to. Not a single Leaver has ever come up with any concrete reason to believe otherwise.

No chance Mike. People have been gas-lighted, lied to and confused. They no longer have a clue what "leave" or "European Union" means which is why they reject a deal which has us leave the EU because they think we wouldn't have. They can't tell you why we're leaving without claiming things long ago disproven as one of the gas-lighting lies. They have forgotten that they voted to be better off because "things can't get any worse" now that they insist they are happy to be worse off.

Whatever ANYONE now does, people will be angry. And with respect to the Cummings/HYUFD master plan, if we miraculously get a viable deal by midnight, and get it EU approved, and get it HoC approved, and get it implemented by Halloween (most of which are impossible if not insane), then people will be OUTRAGED. It isn't PROPER BREXIT. We're STILL IN THE EU" etc etc. And they will not vote Tory they will vote Brexit.

If the Tories deliver the deal they are electorally screwed. If they deliver no deal they know the economic damage means they are electorally screwed. Their only saving grace being that Labour are also screwed.

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.

Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive

The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Of course you did. Anyone who claims they are never in any way influenced by the propaganda of a campaign are either stupid, lying or kidding themselves.

It is perfectly possible to have clear reasons for voting for or against leaving the EU which have nothing to do with the campaigns either official or unofficial. All it requires is to have a clear idea of what one wants our international relationships and internal political structures to be.

So there are plenty like Williamglen who wanted far closer ties to the EU than were being offered by the official Remain campaign. There were plenty like me who wanted a closer final relationship than was being touted by Vote Leave.

I have far more faith in people's ability to be discriminatory about these detailed arguments than you seem to hold.

I have spent quite a bit of my life working life working in marketing and the psychological effect of marketing messages. Those that claim they are not susceptible are nearly always the most easily influenced. Political propaganda is simply cynical marketing where the truth is considered unimportant or inconvenient.

Can anyone confirm the latest date a VONC would have to be called in order for there to be a GE possibility this year?

By my reckoning this would have to be tabled by the end of next week (assuming GE will not go past 10 December).

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.

Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive

The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do

Good old Boris eh? If Boris says so it must be true, just ask his wife!

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.

Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive

The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do

By the way, is this you agreeing with yourself, or arguing?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.

This I would agree with entirely

Yep, me too. I want a deal but to say that I voted the way that I did because someone told me that this would be an easy deal or even the easiest deal in history is frankly insulting what little intelligence I have.

Stocky said:

Can anyone confirm the latest date a VONC would have to be called in order for there to be a GE possibility this year?

By my reckoning this would have to be tabled by the end of next week (assuming GE will not go past 10 December).

I think technically it's November the 8th or there about. But that assumes the PM opted for the legal minimum campaign, was prepared to prorouge and dissolve immeadiately and hold a GE on NYE. In reality it's much earlier than that.

The friends I know who voted to leave didn`t go as far as to look at campaign propoganda. They didn`t think that deeply.

Immigration was by far the biggest reason. Some say "sovereignty" but when you question further this often comes down to controlling our border.

I regret that EU leaders didn`t listen to Cameron when he tried to improve our terms of membership. If he`d have got an emergency brake on free movement, based on our population density, we probably wouldn`t be in the mess we are now.

There is no good outcome.

The 2016 Referendum was a shitty stick with shit at both ends.

RochdalePioneers said:

No chance Mike. People have been gas-lighted, lied to and confused. They no longer have a clue what "leave" or "European Union" means which is why they reject a deal which has us leave the EU because they think we wouldn't have. They can't tell you why we're leaving without claiming things long ago disproven as one of the gas-lighting lies. They have forgotten that they voted to be better off because "things can't get any worse" now that they insist they are happy to be worse off.

Whatever ANYONE now does, people will be angry. And with respect to the Cummings/HYUFD master plan, if we miraculously get a viable deal by midnight, and get it EU approved, and get it HoC approved, and get it implemented by Halloween (most of which are impossible if not insane), then people will be OUTRAGED. It isn't PROPER BREXIT. We're STILL IN THE EU" etc etc. And they will not vote Tory they will vote Brexit.

If the Tories deliver the deal they are electorally screwed. If they deliver no deal they know the economic damage means they are electorally screwed. Their only saving grace being that Labour are also screwed.

Sorry, who are these people who have been lied to and gas-lighted, so that they now reject a deal?

The ERG, the DUP or the Lib Dems who were elected as Labour MPs on a pledge to respect the result?

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.

This I would agree with entirely

Yep, me too. I want a deal but to say that I voted the way that I did because someone told me that this would be an easy deal or even the easiest deal in history is frankly insulting what little intelligence I have.

I wanted to Leave before a referendum was even put in the Tory manifesto... how have I been influenced by, or fallen for the lies of, the campaign?

NickPalmer: "Nov 5, I believe (5 weeks)."

Are you allowing for the 14 days for a failed attempt to find an alternative government?

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

'We'll have a free trade deal with the EU but without being subject to the European Court', so once the EU agreed to remove the backstop and start Free Trade Agreement talks that Vote Leave promise can be delivered

I doubt it! What concessions will the EU require from the UK for that? Easiest trade deal my arse!

Then No Deal it has to be until the EU agree to remove the backstop and European Court jurisdiction over the UK

Honouring the Good Friday Agreement should take priority.

Sinn Fein have already dishonoured it by leaving the Stormont executive

The Good Friday Agreement also said nothing about a backstop, only about avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which Boris has committed to do

Down to answering your own posts nowadays, what next.

isam said: "I wanted to Leave before a referendum was even put in the Tory manifesto... how have I been influenced by, or fallen for the lies of, the campaign?"

That`s a very good point.

Danny565 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Omnium said:

I voted 'Leave'. I didn't vote for 'Official Leave Campaign', and nor did anyone else.

Which is fine. But then any outcome from Norway ++++ to a chaotic no deal exit will deliver what you voted for. But Anyone arguing that Brexit has to mean X can reasonably be refered to the official Leave campaign promises.

This I would agree with entirely

What if we officially leave, but we stay in the "transition period" (during which absolutely nothing changes) forevermore, because a permanent deal can never be reached and MPs keep forcing the government to extend the transition instead?

I woulx have to revidit the detail as it seems a lifetime ago now but as I remember the transition period put us outside the EU structures but inside the Single Market. Which is what I want as an end point anyway.

Stocky said:

The friends I know who voted to leave didn`t go as far as to look at campaign propoganda. They didn`t think that deeply.

Immigration was by far the biggest reason. Some say "sovereignty" but when you question further this often comes down to controlling our border.

I regret that EU leaders didn`t listen to Cameron when he tried to improve our terms of membership. If he`d have got an emergency brake on free movement, based on our population density, we probably wouldn`t be in the mess we are now.

There is no good outcome.

The 2016 Referendum was a shitty stick with shit at both ends.

Non-EU immigration increased, and is generally far more obvious than EU immigration. In addition, Leave areas were not in general where the immigrants went so it is not really about immigration even if the voters said it was. It was economic decline exacerbated by austerity.

Voters wrongly blamed immigration for their economic decline, and then wrongly blamed the EU for that immigration, and so voted Leave.

AlastairMeeks said:

So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.

Stocky said:

NickPalmer: "Nov 5, I believe (5 weeks)."

Are you allowing for the 14 days for a failed attempt to find an alternative government?

I think it's 30th or 31st of October if you think December the 12th is the last possible practical GE this year. But no VONC date guarentees a GE this year as setting the date is a prerogative power of the PM.

Guardian blog reports an ITV Welsh poll confirming the earlier poll showing a move to the two big parties (+5 and +3 respectively), with the Tories in pole position, and the anti-No Deal vote splintered - https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-10-15/poll-lead-with-welsh-voters-suggests-boris-johnson-is-on-course-for-election-win/ .

Alastair - leavers would be making the same argument that you and Mike Smithson are making if remain had one the referendum. Remain campaign lied to.

I for one regarded this as an existential question with consequences waaaaaaaaaaaaaay beyond what any "campaign" came out with.
On the basis of fact and evidence I chose to remain, despite the poor campaign they ran.

Stocky said:

The friends I know who voted to leave didn`t go as far as to look at campaign propoganda. They didn`t think that deeply.

Immigration was by far the biggest reason. Some say "sovereignty" but when you question further this often comes down to controlling our border.

I regret that EU leaders didn`t listen to Cameron when he tried to improve our terms of membership. If he`d have got an emergency brake on free movement, based on our population density, we probably wouldn`t be in the mess we are now.

There is no good outcome.

The 2016 Referendum was a shitty stick with shit at both ends.

Cameron could have applied the controls on free movement that were currently available but he chose not to use?

No renegotiation required.

Cameron's fault, not the EU.

Stocky said:

Alastair - leavers would be making the same argument that you and Mike Smithson are making if remain had one the referendum. Remain campaign lied to.

If Remain had won the referendum, the prospectus was clear: implement David Cameron's renegotiation.

The public remember exactly two things about the Leave campaign: the bus and the anti-immigration stuff. That's all that Leavers can demand is honoured. The rest is open for discussion and is mandateless.

AlastairMeeks said:

Stocky said:

AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.

I suspect that the largest factor was the stupefying awfulness of the Remain campaign. To my mind the actual merits of remaining and leaving were and are extremely evenly balanced, but Remain had the advantage both of a status quo which had given very great benefits economically, had huge appeal to almost all younger people and the many practical advantages of EU membership. They threw away a dead easy victory. Leavers didn't win it - their campaign was rubbish. Remain lost it, their effort was even worse.

https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1184095347402035202

Alastair, I agree that much of the electorate is anti-immigration. But twas ever thus. I`m not convinced that the leave campaign`s lies affected the result - sorry.

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Stocky said:

AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.

Well there is.

You were on this forum, one of "les indecided's" - people who were always going to vote Remain,but pretended to be open minded about what to do, at the time. You surely can remember Richard Tyndall, DavidL and myself were saying about how we were going to vote?

I was open to persuasion. Then it became apparent that all Leave had to campaign on was an anti-immigration message and at that point it was apparent that Remain was the less bad choice.

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Stocky said:

AlastairMeeks: "So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?"

No - just that it probably made no difference to this one.

That would be remarkably convenient for Leavers. Unfortunately there isn't the slightest evidence to support that.

Well there is.

You were on this forum, one of "les indecided's" - people who were always going to vote Remain,but pretended to be open minded about what to do, at the time. You surely can remember Richard Tyndall, DavidL and myself were saying about how we were going to vote?

I was open to persuasion. Then it became apparent that all Leave had to campaign on was an anti-immigration message and at that point it was apparent that Remain was the less bad choice.

I mean, I could have been persuaded by Lexit but a) Brexit was always going to be delivered by a Tory government and b) the out and out racism of the underlying feelings towards the EU. But me and many of my friends were more than willing to ditch the EU following the treatment of Greece and the migrant crisis. We just also didn't trust that the answer to that would be brought to us by the Tories.

Good afternoon, everyone.

I didn't vote for a campaign. Indeed, no-one did. The question on the ballot paper was about remaining in or leaving the EU.

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So is it the considered position of pb's Leavers that campaigns make absolutely no difference to elections?

I'd say that was deliberately misunderstanding what people have said.

Unpack it for me. Because Leavers have been remarkably vociferous in claiming a mandate for some very specific things. Unfortunately, most of those things seem to be buzzing around inside their own heads rather than having any conceivable justification by reference to external events.

There is a misunderstanding here. Parliament's mandate was given to the people for one question only: Remain or Leave. Having decided that, the mandate returns to government and parliament to sort it out; until they have done so it remains with them. We can all make our judgements at General Elections. The respective campaigns were not run by organisations that had the power to implement them. Only government and parliament has that power.

I'm enjoying this latest Leave meme that the referendum vote was presented to us, fully formed, immanent and unblemished by external influences.

Dadge said: "The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign."

Sorry - I`ll be clearer - the campaign did affect the result, but I don`t think it`s lies did. Where the leave campaign was so succesful was getting its vote out - particular in poor areas, where many voted for the first time in their lives.

I`ve always thought (but cannot prove) that the majority was and is Remain - but turnout was the key. It follows, if I`m right, that we are being taken out of the EU against the country`s wishes.

RochdalePioneers said:

isam said:

Sorry, who are these people who have been lied to and gas-lighted, so that they now reject a deal?

The ERG, the DUP or the Lib Dems who were elected as Labour MPs on a pledge to respect the result?

The MPs and the voters who were/are against the Withdrawal Agreement becaused according to them it doesn't mean leaving the European Union. The WA absolutely means we leave. But cretins bang on about "BRINO" and other nonsense. There's swathes of them on local Facebook groups. All ranting against local Labour MPs for not delivering Brexit. When I ask if they should have voted for the WA they say NO, because it isn't Brexit.

As Brexit isn't Brexit according to Brexiteers I think calling them cretins is only fair.

Ah, facebook groups. The goto place for representative samples

Richard_Nabavi said:

Judging by the responses of our Leavers, it's clear that the Vote Leave campaign didn't correctly reflect the arguments for leaving the EU. That seems a pretty incontrovertible argument for scrapping the result and starting again, does it not?

That’s a good point Richard. How might we go about achieving that?

Dadge said:

Stocky said:

Alastair, I agree that much of the electorate is anti-immigration. But twas ever thus. I`m not convinced that the leave campaign`s lies affected the result - sorry.

The campaign definitely affected the outcome. Polls from the time show that support for Leave increased during the campaign. In fact the only time that Leavers have ever outnumbered Remainers was from June-December 2016. (I suppose it took a few months for the propaganda to wear off.)

Of course it affected the outcome. But what the Remainieiris are saying is that specific Leave voters on here were influenced by it. As they blatantly obviously weren't it seems only fair to put them right.