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I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*
The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.
How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
http://www.goatisland.com.au/
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.0 -
I didn't know that one. Interesting thank you that in that scenario JT is better than AK. I suppose that's because its openended for the straight while AK only has one side to go.noneoftheabove said:
JTs is 53% vs 33 46% so a pocket pair is not always best.Philip_Thompson said:
Heads-up from memory its 55% to pocket 3's and 45% to AK suited. If the opposition AK is unsuited you've got a slightly better chance still. Either way a pocket pair heads-up is better than anything that's not a pair.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Thompson, maybe.
I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.
And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.
Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.
However what you really want if you've got a weak pocket, unless you limp in and hope to hit a set, is to get rid of limpers and be playing heads-up with one opponent. If you simply limp in and there ends up being say 5 players in the hand come the flop then you're pretty much screwed as the more players there are the more chance someone will hit an out.0 -
I met the dog.HYUFD said:
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*
The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.
How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
http://www.goatisland.com.au/
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.0 -
On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.0
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Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.rottenborough said:0 -
Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.0
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Sounds like New Labour.Barnesian said:
Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes:timmo said:
They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories onlyMarqueeMark said:
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.moonshine said:
...This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.DecrepitJohnL said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Stocky said:.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
- socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern.
- socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.
Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.
LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.
The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.
I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.
The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes.
The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.
The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest.
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Link?Yellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
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If they want to win Wales, they shoud have agreed to the tidal lagoons..... Wales, the first country on the planet powered entirely by the tides.....rottenborough said:2 -
So Merkel agrees that the Uk will thrive after Brexit ?Yellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
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You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.0 -
A pro league will need a few hundred good players, rather than the 20 or 30 we see here, but regular international fixtures are key to the development of any nations. I can see Japan joining the Southern nations in their regular tournament, playing against Aus, NZ, SA, Samoa and Argentina - but if not then hell yes, we should invite them to join the 6N.Byronic said:
Feels a bit ambitious to me, but I hope they do it. We should invite them into the 6N tomorrow.Sandpit said:
Fantastic news, a great example of using an international tournament to boost the sport in a second-tier nation.Nigelb said:Japanese plans to create a professional rugby series:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Rugby-World-Cup/Win-over-Scotland-boosts-Japan-s-push-to-form-pro-rugby-league1 -
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.0 -
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.noneoftheabove said:
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.0 -
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.Philip_Thompson said:1 -
The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't comply with the red lines.Cyclefree said:
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.0 -
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Merkel agrees that there are alternative and competing economic models to the EU's and that Boris is going to adopt one of them on her door step. Thriving is of course in the eye of the beholder.TGOHF2 said:
So Merkel agrees that the Uk will thrive after Brexit ?Yellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
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You dont think 3% of the population might be obsessed? If they move from Bluekip to BXP it changes the picture a lot.TGOHF2 said:
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.noneoftheabove said:
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.0 -
It would be better to make it the 8N then. Georgia have probably done enough now to make the number up.Sandpit said:
A pro league will need a few hundred good players, rather than the 20 or 30 we see here, but regular international fixtures are key to the development of any nations. I can see Japan joining the Southern nations in their regular tournament, playing against Aus, NZ, SA, Samoa and Argentina - but if not then hell yes, we should invite them to join the 6N.Byronic said:
Feels a bit ambitious to me, but I hope they do it. We should invite them into the 6N tomorrow.Sandpit said:
Fantastic news, a great example of using an international tournament to boost the sport in a second-tier nation.Nigelb said:Japanese plans to create a professional rugby series:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Rugby-World-Cup/Win-over-Scotland-boosts-Japan-s-push-to-form-pro-rugby-league1 -
Nope. Brown was all façade. He was every bit as vacuous as Dave and The Clown. No wonder the war criminal found the daftie intolerable.OldKingCole said:
It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.asjohnstone said:
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.AlastairMeeks said:
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.moonshine said:
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.AlastairMeeks said:Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.0 -
If we're clearly leaving, we're leaving. Those that feel v strongly won't be defecting pointlessly from Tories to Brexit Party for fear of smashing the process and letting in the saboteurs. I think the drift would be absolutely minimal. Just as likely to impact on Labour anyway which is what will count in the marginals.noneoftheabove said:
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.0 -
Burgessian said:
Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.0 -
I’m sure there will be a swing during that period but if there isn’t a GE in that short window then it will be irrelevant.noneoftheabove said:
You dont think 3% of the population might be obsessed? If they move from Bluekip to BXP it changes the picture a lot.TGOHF2 said:
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.noneoftheabove said:
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
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Those Tory strategists are rightrottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1183997695066886145?s=200 -
isam said: "The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest."
That`s an interesting view from a ex UKIP candidate. You think Farage`s influence will wane? Even if we leave with a deal (which Farage will of course deride as not really Brexit)?0 -
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?Theuniondivvie said:
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.0 -
The proof will be in whether Hammond votes for MV4. It was easy enough from the saftey of No 11 to vote the other times, when he knew there was no chance of it passing. I think the accusation is that his actions from No 11 were precisely what made it impossible to pass until now.Philip_Thompson said:
The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't comply with the red lines.Cyclefree said:
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
His recent anti-free trade comments were a puzzle too.0 -
Why would you put "level playing field" restrictions in an agreement?Yellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
It just betrays Labour lack of confidence. They should win an election and then put in place whatever social rules they want. And if the Tories win the following election they can change them. It's the whole point of an elected parliament0 -
Or the sack...rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184048241261924352
Depends on what's in the barrel.0 -
With a deal approved by Ireland (and so, the EU), Boris will certainly get away with a deal passed through the House by the 31st. There will be no need for a further extension, so screw you, Benn. There might still be some detail to be resolved by a committee of clever blokes, but on the basis that the effective date of all such provisions is to be31st Octber 2019, there is nothing more to prevent our departure.Yellow_Submarine said:On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
Blocking that deal through the House will be a kamikaze mission for those who try.
(As I have pointed out previousy, Varadkar has put in place a Doomsday Budget to provide for No Deal. How good will he look when he can replace that with the SUnlit Uplands Budget instead? I mean, it's not like he has an election to plan for or anything..... And with a 31st October Effective Date, the incoming Commission can say Brexit is a Problem Belong Last Lot. Yay!)
Job done. Send home our MEP's. Bring on the general election.1 -
Evil, selfish, cruel, deluded, narcissistic, dangerous and repulsive Brexit Britain is....
the seventh most generous nation on the planet, ahead of all other major EU nations.
https://twitter.com/Caf/status/1184009724494336000?s=200 -
Quite a characterByronic said:
I met the dog.HYUFD said:
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
The 50 best bars list is a British *thing*. Brought to you by the same people that did the amazingly influential 50 best restaurants *thing*
The bar list is ridiculous. There must be a million bars in the world. Literally. This concentrates, exclusively, on a tiny 0.1% of highly themed, over-marketed and spiritually desolate cocktail bars in London, NYC and Singapore.
How much more interesting if they'd gone out and found some amazing beachside Tobagan shacks, or lochside Scottish boozers, or topless "hotels" in the Nevada desert.
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
http://www.goatisland.com.au/
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.0 -
I think entertaining should be replaced with painfully slow and frustrating given the pace of their accepting reality so far.Cyclefree said:Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.0 -
He did a lot of shit behind the scenes which ended up with a WA that wasn't acceptable to Parliament.Cyclefree said:
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.0 -
An extension that ensures we have left with a deal isn't a problem for Boris in an election - he wins that election.noneoftheabove said:
You dont think 3% of the population might be obsessed? If they move from Bluekip to BXP it changes the picture a lot.TGOHF2 said:
As long as it’s this year and there isn’t a GE then a couple of weeks will only matter to the obsessed.noneoftheabove said:
You are right that the vast majority of the public couldnt care less whether we left on Oct 31 or Nov 30 for example. But by making it such a commitment he is surely teeing up an easy attack line for Farage. If just 3% of the public move from Tory to BXP as a result that could be enough to tip the election.Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
Will most current Tory voters be upset enough by not leaving on Macrons end date? Very unlikely, but that is not the point, it is are there a few of them who will again feel let down and that they would have more trust in Farage than Boris.
An extension is a problem for Boris if he is in an election.
An extension with a deal agreed with the EU but not by Parliament is a bigger issue for Boris. That allows the BXP to attack him on two issues (extension, not hard enough deal) with Labour hitting them on the other side (deal is too hard).
Boris has successfully manoeuvred himself into the worst possible position.0 -
-
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.HYUFD said:
Quite a characterByronic said:
I met the dog.HYUFD said:
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
Kai is a dude.0 -
File under hankering for Tory Lite Government.Barnesian said:
Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes:timmo said:
They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories onlyMarqueeMark said:
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.moonshine said:
...This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.DecrepitJohnL said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Stocky said:.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
- socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern.
- socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.
Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.
LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.
The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.
I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.
The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes.
The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.
The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
That ships sailed0 -
Indeed. Hammond never wanted Brexit and sabotaged it all the way from within No 11. Disgraceful.moonshine said:
The proof will be in whether Hammond votes for MV4. It was easy enough from the saftey of No 11 to vote the other times, when he knew there was no chance of it passing. I think the accusation is that his actions from No 11 were precisely what made it impossible to pass until now.Philip_Thompson said:
The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't comply with the red lines.Cyclefree said:
I'm at a loss to understand why someone who has voted for a Withdrawal Agreement which complies with all the red lines set down by the government and which were thoroughly approved of by Rees-Mogg at the time is somehow opposing Brexit. Whereas someone who voted against the WA and was therefore one of the people responsible for the situation in which the government now finds itself is somehow on the side of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Still in Brexit La-La-Land, black is white and white is black so it should not be that much of a surprise, I suppose.
His recent anti-free trade comments were a puzzle too.0 -
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.OnlyLivingBoy said:
We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.TOPPING said:
I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.NickPalmer said:
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.
This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!0 -
Postal votes are more likely to be Tory?
Or is that out of date?0 -
The red lines were May's. They don't define Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?Theuniondivvie said:
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.0 -
Much better - the owner of the Soggy Dollar Bar doesn't have a gun. At least as far as I know.Nigelb said:
Mad drunken owner with gun...Byronic said:
CORRECTION
...
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
http://www.goatisland.com.au/
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
The beer would have to be exceptional.0 -
I think Ireland want this sorted out at this weeks summit.Scott_P said:0 -
Extension for what purpose? Unless the EU remove the backstop the DUP and ERG will still vote down any Deal and there are still not enough Labour MPs willing to vote for the current Withdrawal Agreement. Hence Boris is right to stick to Brexit with No Deal unless the EU remove the backstop and to continue to do everything he can to sabotage further extensionYellow_Submarine said:On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
0 -
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC0 -
"Postal votes are more likely to be Tory?" !
Nearly choked on my Shreddies. Postal vote system is a disgrace - urgently needs reforming, and is being abused by Labour. LP activists have been seen visiting folks houses and collected numerous voting papers for themselves to post.
0 -
No, sadly not but read an article on it and yes sounds a great place to goByronic said:
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.HYUFD said:
Quite a characterByronic said:
I met the dog.HYUFD said:
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
Kai is a dude.0 -
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
16h
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 33% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 17% (-2)
BXP: 12% (-3)
GRN: 3% (+1)
Via
@Panelbase
, 9-11 Oct.
Changes w/ 5-6 Sep.0 -
Provided they are postmarked before polling day postal votes still have to be counted even if they are delivered laterottenborough said:0 -
The whole Top End of the Northern Territory is fantastic. Possibly the best bit of Australia. Wild yet rich, savage yet beautiful,... and with great Singapore Laksas in Darwin.HYUFD said:
No, sadly not but read an article on it and yes sounds a great place to goByronic said:
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.HYUFD said:
Quite a characterByronic said:
I met the dog.HYUFD said:
I believe the owner used to have a dog the 'dumb blonde' who he used to entertain visitors with by chasing away a crocodile until the crocodile eventually got annoyed by this and decided to have it for lunchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
Kai is a dude.
Arnhemland is peerlessly majestic. A top tier global travel experience. I am lucky that my modelling skills take me to such unlikely locations for UK menswear shoots.0 -
Have you been away BJO. That was discussed a few days agobigjohnowls said:Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
16h
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 33% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 17% (-2)
BXP: 12% (-3)
GRN: 3% (+1)
Via
@Panelbase
, 9-11 Oct.
Changes w/ 5-6 Sep.0 -
You're wrong to ascribe this to Brexit though.Cyclefree said:Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.0 -
Yes will have to go sometime, my sister has been to northern Australia and very much enjoyed utByronic said:
The whole Top End of the Northern Territory is fantastic. Possibly the best bit of Australia. Wild yet rich, savage yet beautiful,... and with great Singapore Laksas in Darwin.HYUFD said:
No, sadly not but read an article on it and yes sounds a great place to goByronic said:
You've been there?! Wow! Haha! What a place huh? I went there by helicopter, drunk. We'd already landed at 3 other jungle pubs beforehand.HYUFD said:
Quite a characterByronic said:
I met the dog.HYUFD said:
I believe the owner used to have a nchByronic said:
CORRECTIONmoonshine said:
It does quite well in the NY Times Top-50 Bars list as well too. They're all old.TGOHF2 said:
The food is amazing - all the best bits of Chinese/Malay/Thai mixed up with fantastic seafood as the base.moonshine said:
Each to their own. If you find yourself doing a transit through Singapore I recommend jumping out for a day or two. It's changed beyond comparison in that time.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.moonshine said:
I don't really got it is not.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people okalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they do peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
oot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
Kai is a dude.
Arnhemland is peerlessly majestic. A top tier global travel experience. I am lucky that my modelling skills take me to such unlikely locations for UK menswear shoots.0 -
"to continue to do everything he can to sabotage further extension". Or break the law, as would be more accurate.HYUFD said:
Extension for what purpose? Unless the EU remove the backstop the DUP and ERG will still vote down any Deal and there are still not enough Labour MPs willing to vote for the current Withdrawal Agreement. Hence Boris is right to stick to Brexit with No Deal unless the EU remove the backstop and to continue to do everything he can to sabotage further extensionYellow_Submarine said:On topic: The comments from Jeremy Hunt this morning on the difficulty of ratifying a deal by 31st Oct and the need for a short technical extension are well worth looking at if you are betting on this market.
It is really quite extraordinary watching Tory supporters advocate breaking the law if they can't get their own way. It shows that - au fond - they are really no different from those Marxists they keep complaining about.0 -
The Anglosphere doing quite well as a wholeByronic said:Evil, selfish, cruel, deluded, narcissistic, dangerous and repulsive Brexit Britain is....
the seventh most generous nation on the planet, ahead of all other major EU nations.
https://twitter.com/Caf/status/1184009724494336000?s=200 -
I don't see any prospect of Labour winning a majority, no. They could be the largest party, and it is more likely they could be the second biggest party but in a better position to form a minority govt than the Tories. We can all read the opinion polls.TOPPING said:
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.OnlyLivingBoy said:
We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.TOPPING said:
I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.NickPalmer said:
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.
This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!0 -
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.rottenborough said:Postal votes are more likely to be Tory?
Or is that out of date?
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.0 -
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.0 -
Must have beenBig_G_NorthWales said:
Have you been away BJO. That was discussed a few days agobigjohnowls said:Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
·
16h
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 33% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDM: 17% (-2)
BXP: 12% (-3)
GRN: 3% (+1)
Via
@Panelbase
, 9-11 Oct.
Changes w/ 5-6 Sep.0 -
Bit of a treck, though.TOPPING said:
Much better - the owner of the Soggy Dollar Bar doesn't have a gun. At least as far as I know.Nigelb said:
Mad drunken owner with gun...Byronic said:
CORRECTION
...
I can name one bar, off the top of my head, which beats them all. The Goat Island Lodge in the jungles of the Northern Territory
http://www.goatisland.com.au/
For half the year you can only get there by chopper or boat. The mad drunken owner keeps a gun on the bartop to shoot the many, many crocodiles. The beer is excellent.
The beer would have to be exceptional.
This place is a little less effort, and well worth a visit:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/may/06/moorcock-inn-west-yorkshire-head-spinningly-good-restaurant-review
Their mutton was the best I've ever had.0 -
So the whole Labour Party strategy is based upon them losing and how best to contribute to British Politics from that position.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I don't see any prospect of Labour winning a majority, no. They could be the largest party, and it is more likely they could be the second biggest party but in a better position to form a minority govt than the Tories. We can all read the opinion polls.TOPPING said:
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.OnlyLivingBoy said:
We've had this argument a million times, but Nick is absolutely right. Unless the Tories can guarantee that they will not use Brexit as a pretext for deregulation (which I doubt they can because that is the whole point of it) then no Labour MP should touch it with a barge poll. Labour's job isn't to help the Tories fulfill their Thatcherite wank fantasies when they don't have the numbers themselves.TOPPING said:
I only hope Nick wasn't typing this post with a straight face or does he really think we're that stupid.NickPalmer said:
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
Such a stance is of course totally understandable politically but morally disingenuous and illogical to boot.
This is the WA and there is all to play for in the PD. If Labour votes through the WA, agrees to an election, win a thumping majority (which they will, right?), then they can put in as many anti-Singaporean clauses and safeguards as they want.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
That is pretty damning.0 -
FFS. "A sort of pirate state" - i.e. an independent nation with its own trade and industrial policies, like those well known bloodthirsty brigands, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Australia, Korea...NickPalmer said:
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.2 -
New Labour was politically successful. But it made a number of major mistakes that LibDems have learned from and will avoid.isam said:.
Sounds like New Labour.Barnesian said:
Labour can be considered to be two distinct tribes:timmo said:
They will.struggle as they are entirely set up to take on the Tories onlyMarqueeMark said:
In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.
- socially conservative working class, nationalist, understandably looking after their own interests through unionisation, benefits etc. Geography Northern.
- socially liberal, economically left wing (with a conscience) , internationalist, well educated and relatively well off. Geography Southern.
Eventually something has to give. But I don't think the LibDems will replace the Labour party.
LibDems are socially liberal and internationalist and won't appeal to Labour working class who increasingly will look to the Brexit Party.
The problem the LibDems have is their economic policy which has been the source of great division within the party (Orange Bookers etc). More right wing economic policies will appeal to socially liberal internationalist Tories. More left wing will appeal to the socially liberal internationalist Labourists.
I think the best approach for the LibDems is to be neither economically left nor right wing but pragmatic "what works best in the circumstances" and focus on social liberalism, greenery and an open international outlook.
The Labour party will naturally wither as it loses from both its tribes.
The Tory party will also diminish as it loses its socially liberal internationalist wing but could merge with the Brexit party (some would say that's already in progress) to be a right wing populist party.
The LibDems is a centrist party economically, but socially liberal, green and internationalist and appealing to the growing middle classes and the young. It isn't a replacement for the Labour Party. It has its own identity and destiny.
The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest.
The Brexit Party may formally disappear but its DNA will remain in the New Tory Party.0 -
Nick are you too of the opinion that Labour ain't winning a GE any time soon?NickPalmer said:
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.0 -
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.TOPPING said:
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!0 -
Even here in deepest Leaverstan, which a rooted and stable workforce where being a Postie has some status, the service has go to the dogs in the last 18 months. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation the workforce now hates their jobs and management to the extent they are destroying the service. 6 days a week universal letters delivery has the sent of death over it. We are in the blame game phase now.rottenborough said:0 -
In a large proportion of Welsh seats there will be a "unite to Remain" candidate with two of LD/GRN/PC standing aside. That could make it harder in CON targets.Peter_the_Punter said:
Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.rottenborough said:0 -
All 27 have to be happy.GIN1138 said:
I think Ireland want this sorted out at this weeks summit.Scott_P said:
I must admit that I’m perplexed by the “scandis” comment. Sweden is ultra pro-deal, so he must be referring to Denmark or Finland (which isn’t actually “scandi”, but rather Nordic). I can’t imagine why either of them would be bothered, as long as Ireland is happy.0 -
?The poll actually shows Labour up 3%!Big_G_NorthWales said:
This poll explains why Stephen Kinnock and other labour mps will vote for a dealydoethur said:
Welcome, and thank you. Another very interesting poll.3ChordTrick said:
I have thought for some time that if one party could rally the non-Labour vote behind it, Labour are at risk of a sudden collapse in Wales. Divisions among their opponents however, which the SNP somehow overcame in Scotland, have made that tough.
But it looks as though the Brexit vote might be the key to destroying Labour in Wales. If so, at least one good thing will ave come from it.
Conservatives will be very pleased with this poll as labour continue to lose support0 -
The red lines were defined in the Brexit Referendum. They are a meaningful Brexit.Dadge said:
The red lines were May's. They don't define Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?Theuniondivvie said:
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.0 -
Eh? What do you mean? As I understand it, the VW diesel scandal was about VW cheating emissions standards by installing software that detected test conditions and altered engine performance.TGOHF2 said:
We don’t have crony capitalism now ?FF43 said:
Singapore isn't my cup of tea either, but impressive. Brexit Britain won't be Singapore however. Crony capitalism is more likely.nichomar said:
Whilst it is 15 years since I was there I found it a very sterile place lacking character and not my cup of tea.
Explain the VW diesel scandal.
Crony capitalism is where businesses make money from having connections within the government, where legislation is (partially) designed to benefit mates' companies or contracts are designed to be won by certain bidders rather than with public-good requirements in mind.
I don't see the connection.0 -
How many trade negotiations has the government been involved in in the last 25 years, say? Or data protection measures? Obviously exclude the ones done through the EU.Charles said:
You're wrong to ascribe this to Brexit though.Cyclefree said:Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.
0 -
Hmm, there's a lot of over-optimism, it seems to me. Remember the key point is that neither side wants to be blamed for the talks collapsing, but is it really plausible that there will be an agreed legal text by tonight, which the EU27 leaders will accept, and which differs sufficiently from the previous one to allow the ERGers and DUP to agree to it, and which gets past the EU parliament, and which also gets support from enough Labour MPs, ex-Tories and indies to pass in the UK parliament by Saturday?
Even in the most optimistic scenario, the best that can be hoped for is that the outline of a deal is looking possible, but more time will be needed to get it done.
What does Boris then do? He has done precisely zero to ease the naive expectations that he could deliver a deal by do-or-die date - in fact quite the opposite, he keeps doubling down on it. He'll be trapped by the Benn Act. He'll know that a No Deal crash out in a fortnight's time would be an utter disaster. He'll lose enormous credibility if we don't leave on that arbitrary date. He'll have Rees Mogg and the heavies breathing down his neck. He'll have Farage gleefully chucking rocks from the sidelines. He'll have the opposition parties trying to impale him on his stupid pledge.
All this suggests to me a messy extension which pleases no-one and which leaves Boris still striving, like Theresa May, to herd the cats in support of a deal no-one really likes.0 -
How effective would a postal strike be, these days? I cannot think of a single important thing which is regularly delivered, to me, by Royal Mail.Yellow_Submarine said:
Even here in deepest Leaverstan, which a rooted and stable workforce where being a Postie has some status, the service has go to the dogs in the last 18 months. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation the workforce now hates their jobs and management to the extent they are destroying the service. 6 days a week universal letters delivery has the sent of death over it. We are in the blame game phase now.rottenborough said:
Probably the last crucial mail delivery I received was my new passport, but even that might have been couriered (I can't remember)
I'm not even sure I would notice a postal strike, except for the fact there would be less pointless junkmail littering the doorway0 -
Looks like a good old swing fashioned swing toward the big two has begun in earnest.0
-
The Kinnock 19 have pleaded with the EU for there to be a deal to deliver Brexit. Do they still vote for it if the EU conclude a deal without such social and environmental protections? (Although I suspect Merkel is voicing one of the areas of concern that is taking up much time in the Tunnel of Love.....)NickPalmer said:
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.0 -
Do you want to read that back to yourself.NickPalmer said:
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.TOPPING said:
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!
You don't want the British people to be able to elect a government that has the freedom to implement policies you may not like.
This is a fundamentally undemocratic mindset, and encapsulates why remain lost perfectly.0 -
Just agree a new legally-agreed deal when you have a stonking OM.NickPalmer said:
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.TOPPING said:
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!0 -
MarqueeMark said:
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.rottenborough said:Postal votes are more likely to be Tory?
Or is that out of date?
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.
There have been a number of cases on this which set out what has happened. While Labour has benefited in some cases, it has not just been Labour. The Tories too have benefited as have independents such as Lutfur Rahman.0 -
According to the Beeboids, at least 15 covering 40 countries :-D. May be more now though - it has had another fortnight.Cyclefree said:
How many trade negotiations has the government been involved in in the last 25 years, say? Or data protection measures? Obviously exclude the ones done through the EU.Charles said:
You're wrong to ascribe this to Brexit though.Cyclefree said:Burgessian said:Seems to me that Boris is gaming this pretty well. He's coming across as positive, optimistic and proactive. End of Brexit in sight. Should be able to largely reunite Party. Labour's foxes (NHS spending etc) are shot. LibDems stuck with revoke policy which will look pretty stupid if a deal is in sight. Don't think the vast majority of public will be that bothered by a short extension if process is underway.
Could all go wrong, of course. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel and voting for anyone else could cause the train to derail.
The end of Brexit is nowhere in sight. Any WA is merely the start of extensive negotiations, not just with the EU but with every other country with whom previous trading arrangements have just been torn up, to replicate alternatives. And that's just trading. There will have to be negotiations on data sharing, possibly even more important than - and in any event essential for - trade in a digital/AI world. All of this will consume time and energy which could have been used for other matters. The results of such negotiations will impact every aspect of British life and politics for years to come.
It is delusional to think that Brexit will be over any time soon. It will be quite entertaining, though, watching Brexiteers come to terms with their delusion.
Government talk and negotiate all the time. It's what they do.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-472138420 -
IE the entire frigging point of being an independent country.Byronic said:
FFS. "A sort of pirate state" - i.e. an independent nation with its own trade and industrial policies, like those well known bloodthirsty brigands, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Australia, Korea...NickPalmer said:
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.0 -
The Tories outpolled Labour at the 2009 EU elections I believe.ydoethur said:
Last month.SquareRoot said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes but the trend is firmly away from labourydoethur said:
Although even on this poll the only viable government would be Plaid-Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:
For those of us living in Wales labour have comprehensively failed on health and education and in health our family have numerous examples of failures.TheJezziah said:
Be nice if we had a company from the other end of the Con-Lab scale to compare to as well, or a polling company that was less of an outlier to look at in addition, better than nothing on Wales though!3ChordTrick said:
They have had their time and this poll comes as no surprise and gives us a ray of hope that they will be thrown out of the Senedd at the next Assembly elections
When was the last time the Tories polled higher than Labour?
If you mean ‘in an election,’ I think the answer is 1900. But I don’t have the figures for the popular vote so I’m having to guess a bit. In terms of seats it’s 1900.0 -
Unless, as is very possible, the Nordics were rather hoping Britain might stay in the end. Therefore any deal, as it gets close, is unwanted.StuartDickson said:
All 27 have to be happy.GIN1138 said:
I think Ireland want this sorted out at this weeks summit.Scott_P said:
I must admit that I’m perplexed by the “scandis” comment. Sweden is ultra pro-deal, so he must be referring to Denmark or Finland (which isn’t actually “scandi”, but rather Nordic). I can’t imagine why either of them would be bothered, as long as Ireland is happy.
Certainly the Hanseatic and protestant European nations were the most dismayed by the original Brexit vote.
0 -
Bit out of date. Postal voting procedures have been made tougher with voters having to write in their date of birth and produce a signature which is checked against the PV registration document.MarqueeMark said:
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.rottenborough said:Postal votes are more likely to be Tory?
Or is that out of date?
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.0 -
No, its democracy. If people vote to change laws or regulations then that is democracy in action. Why would you want to rule out democracy or domestic control?NickPalmer said:
Not the point. We may win the next election, or the one after, but one day we'll lose, and then if we've cast off from EU social and environmental alignment, the pirate state becomes possible. We need to rule it out as part of the legally-agreed deal.TOPPING said:
But you're going to win the next GE aren't you so the problem you highlight is moot.
SURELY you are not suggesting that Lab aren't going to win the next GE??? Because that is crazy talk!0 -
Yeah, how to stop the UK competing when it is out.MarqueeMark said:
The Kinnock 19 have pleaded with the EU for there to be a deal to deliver Brexit. Do they still vote for it if the EU conclude a deal without such social and environmental protections? (Although I suspect Merkel is voicing one of the areas of concern that is taking up much time in the Tunnel of Love.....)NickPalmer said:
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
0 -
Unlikey to make much difference except in a few seats. Maybe help Plaid in Ynys Mon and LDs in Cardiff Central. But I dont see much love lost between Plaid and Lib Dems so dont assume there will be automatic switching of support....MikeSmithson said:
In a large proportion of Welsh seats there will be a "unite to Remain" candidate with two of LD/GRN/PC standing aside. That could make it harder in CON targets.Peter_the_Punter said:
Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.rottenborough said:0 -
Your analogy falls down in the first sentence. A Unionist Scottish government would not hold an independence referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Scots had voted Yes and then a Unionist Scottish government had negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement that meant Scotland would be an independent country but must continue to follow Westminster laws without any MPs and without getting a say in doing so and could never unilaterally exit the arrangements they are required to follow Westminster laws - would that honour the Yes vote?Theuniondivvie said:
Of course, for the true Brexiteer zealot the Withdrawal Agreement for exiting the EU has nothing to do with exiting the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
The red lines included an end to ECJ jurisdiction and that the UK Parliament would set our laws. The backstop means that we must follow EU laws and it is enforced by the ECJ - that violates the red lines quite clearly.0 -
Exactly. An all out national postal service strike, the nuclear option, just won't be that disruptive at a systemic level. Letter delivery is no longer critical national infrastructure. So when one side feels it has no choice to use it's nuclear option which isn't that nuclear anyway it's already lost.Byronic said:
How effective would a postal strike be, these days? I cannot think of a single important thing which is regularly delivered, to me, by Royal Mail.Yellow_Submarine said:
Even here in deepest Leaverstan, which a rooted and stable workforce where being a Postie has some status, the service has go to the dogs in the last 18 months. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation the workforce now hates their jobs and management to the extent they are destroying the service. 6 days a week universal letters delivery has the sent of death over it. We are in the blame game phase now.rottenborough said:
Probably the last crucial mail delivery I received was my new passport, but even that might have been couriered (I can't remember)
I'm not even sure I would notice a postal strike, except for the fact there would be less pointless junkmail littering the doorway0 -
I think so, yeah. The only reason TBP did well, I hesitate to say "won" in front of so many hateful pedants, at the Euro elections is because we haven't left, not because people want No Deal.Stocky said:isam said: "The Brexit Party seem to be doing well out of your analysis. I'd say they will be gone once we leave to be honest."
That`s an interesting view from a ex UKIP candidate. You think Farage`s influence will wane? Even if we leave with a deal (which Farage will of course deride as not really Brexit)?
I also think that Boris wont lose much support at all if we dont leave on the 31 Oct. His arbitrary deadline was the equivalent of putting in a bid in a negotiation. If it helps us leave by the end of the year, for instance, it will have done its job.0 -
It is the social and environmental policies that might be adopted that worry people - the suggestions that these would be significantly weakened and that the weakest or minorities in our country would, in consequence, suffer. In short, not just that Britain might be more competitive than, say, Germany but that the fruits of that competitiveness will be taken only by the rich in this country at the expense of the poor, the workers etc.Byronic said:
FFS. "A sort of pirate state" - i.e. an independent nation with its own trade and industrial policies, like those well known bloodthirsty brigands, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Australia, Korea...NickPalmer said:
From the Guardian blog:Big_G_NorthWales said:
So what has Merkel said this morning as nothing is being reportedYellow_Submarine said:Also note Merkel's public intervention this morning. She's absolutely right in her implied analysis of Boris' new PD and where it will lead. The Kinnockites will have noticed.
And I expect the negotiation continues based on a deal and if approved by the HOC a short technical extension would be agreed
The operative word is if the deal is approved by the HOC
---------------
Speaking at a summit for Germany’s mechanical engineers in Berlin, the chancellor reiterated this morning that her government would push for a solution until the last possible moment, but also said the negotiations had got “very complicated” since it had become clear that Britain wanted to leave the customs union.
For the third time in just over a month, Merkel repeated a line that has raised some eyebrows in the UK: in Britain, Merkel said, “the European Union will have a further competitor right on the European Union’s doorstep”.
--------------
Essentially the issue is whether the deal allows the UK to be a sort of pirate state, undercutting social and environmental protection regulations that inhibit its Continental competitors. Some Conservative MPs think this is a good idea (though they wouldn't agree it makes us pirates, merely "vigorously competitive"), but it's as un-Labour as it's possible to be: this stuff REALLY matters to us. It's the opposite of the May idea of alignment with EU rules, which ran into the vassal-state argument.
The very type of post-Brexit policies that might be adopted in this scenario would exacerbate the very conditions and concerns which gave rise to Brexit in the first place - the sense that the system worked only for a few not the many. Quite why the ultra Brexiteers don't see that long-term this is disastrous for the Tories, I don't know. But it is.0 -
Boles quite clearly wouldnt vote for any deal no matter what was presented.Scott_P said:0 -
The main branding is likely to be "unite fo remain"Penddu said:
Unlikey to make much difference except in a few seats. Maybe help Plaid in Ynys Mon and LDs in Cardiff Central. But I dont see much love lost between Plaid and Lib Dems so dont assume there will be automatic switching of support....MikeSmithson said:
In a large proportion of Welsh seats there will be a "unite to Remain" candidate with two of LD/GRN/PC standing aside. That could make it harder in CON targets.Peter_the_Punter said:
Of course the instruction made perfect sense but due to a miscommunication they charged the wrong guns.rottenborough said:0 -
The bottom line should be this. No ID, no vote, it really isn't difficult. I am all for greater engagement, but people who cannot be bothered to carry out a simple ID check that they do for pretty much everything else in life are demonstrating a level of apathy that causes them to de-enfranchise themselves and I have no sympathy. Postal votes should be kept to a minimum, only in extreme need. We have a situation now where large numbers of people are voting well before the campaign has ended.MikeSmithson said:
Bit out of date. Postal voting procedures have been made tougher with voters having to write in their date of birth and produce a signature which is checked against the PV registration document.MarqueeMark said:
The postal votes are generally for the elderly, hence they benefit the Tories.rottenborough said:Postal votes are more likely to be Tory?
Or is that out of date?
However, there remains a view - evidence-based, hearsay, scurrilous rumour, vile racist slander, take your pick - that in the south Asian communities there are sophisticated vote-harvesting operations by community leaders in favour of their Labour Party cronies.1 -
You do appear to be missing the fact that any Labour MP who failed to support his party on a VNOC would face automatic deselection. It would be the equivalent of a Premier League player deliberately kicking the ball into his own goal!Stocky said:ydoethur says: "But in that sense it does make a VNC less likely as I suspect Parliament would just vote for an election."
Why would parliament vote for an election (2/3 needed) rather than via a VONC? A VONC would be much more embarrassing for the government (and VONC plus GNU would take away the ability to set a GE date from BJ).
But I return to my original point: if, say, Kinnock voted for a deal is he likely to follow this up with a vote expressing no confidence in the government? Seems unlikely to me. Therefore, if deal passes VONC wouldn`t succeed by this logic. Maybe I`m missing something?0
This discussion has been closed.