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MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.0 -
Yes, you are correct but the Gaukeward squad are all part of the equation along with the 19 labour mps for a deal, and other independentskle4 said:
Keep an eye on Baker and the DUP. No good getting encouraging movement from one side if the others move away.Big_G_NorthWales said:David Gauke on Sky saying Barnier's comments are encouraging
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I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.3 -
Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting0
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Mr. Kamski, voter ID was discussed quite a bit yesterday. There'll be a range of options available (if it's anything like the pilot), including free ID from the local electoral body if an individual doesn't already have one of the various types of permissible ID.0
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Brown was garbage, he was too up his own arse in thinking he was the messiah to ever be any good.OldKingCole said:
It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.asjohnstone said:
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.AlastairMeeks said:
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.moonshine said:
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.AlastairMeeks said:Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales: I`m not sure that they will. Those smart enough to twig the Labour shenanigans probably still hanker for referendum/revoke and so will be relieved that we haven`t actually left the EU.0
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Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .0 -
Whoever from Labour was being interviewed didn't say it out loud and the question really wasn't forced but it's clear that Labour sees little reason in meeting on Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
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The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.0 -
It will hurt the LibDems in the SW too.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.1 -
Is anyone smart enough to understand labour's position on brexit ?Stocky said:Big_G_NorthWales: I`m not sure that they will. Those smart enough to twig the Labour shenanigans probably still hanker for referendum/revoke and so will be relieved that we haven`t actually left the EU.
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Many people are promoted too soon; Brown was promoted far too late.malcolmg said:
Brown was garbage, he was too up his own arse in thinking he was the messiah to ever be any good.OldKingCole said:
It's perfectly reasonable to want to be PM if one has an idea of what one wants to do...... eg Blair, and to be fair Brown, and, I think, Theresa May. If you think it's because you think you'd be good at it, or in some way it's your destiny, like Cameron and Johnson then you are much less likely to be successful.asjohnstone said:
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.AlastairMeeks said:
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.moonshine said:
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.AlastairMeeks said:Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
I suspect Brown would have been a lot better at the job if he hadn't inherited a party which was somewhat tired of governing.0 -
They are quite obviously following the Putin/United Russia 2012 playbook to the letter. Having alienated the most advanced part of the electorate they are now going all in to attract the most backward via nationalism and letting public spending rip.AlastairMeeks said:
Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.asjohnstone said:
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.AlastairMeeks said:
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.moonshine said:
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.AlastairMeeks said:Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.1 -
In my experience best way to play a pair of 3's is to be aggressive and hope not to run into a higher pocket pair.RochdalePioneers said:
He must be doing something right. We have a government with a majority of -45 who has a 100% vote loss record playing Dom's strategy of deploying HM to read out the Tory manifesto whilst simultaneously marginalising cabinet ministers to such an extent that they have literally no idea what the plan is for Brexit other than being assured it will be brilliant.ydoethur said:
He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.TGOHF2 said:
Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :
”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...
Once a flop comes your pair of 3s is useless unless another 3 turns it into a Set (in which case it's great but that's unlikely) but heads up pocket 3s are better than Ace and a King suited.1 -
Oh sure - the Boris plan is already being called a betrayal out there in Gammonland. There is no way that the people gaslit to believe that the only Brexit is No Deal are going to not vote for Farage who offers that and instead vote for a traitor in the form of the Quisling Johnson.eek said:
a pair of 3s - are you sure it's not pikachu and Master Bun the baker's son.RochdalePioneers said:
He must be doing something right. We have a government with a majority of -45 who has a 100% vote loss record playing Dom's strategy of deploying HM to read out the Tory manifesto whilst simultaneously marginalising cabinet ministers to such an extent that they have literally no idea what the plan is for Brexit other than being assured it will be brilliant.ydoethur said:
He really doesn’t do self-awareness, does he? The sight of a man the DfE ran rings around blustering about ministers being ‘herded like sheep’ borders on the surreal.TGOHF2 said:
Don’t worry about any deal - as Dom says :
”Also, don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.”
For a man playing high stakes poker holding a pair of 3s, he's doing ok...
I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. Previously it would have been possible to play it's a people v Parliament election but without a unicorn Brexit plan a lot of people are going to dislike the actual plan and that's going to make Boris's job in the election even harder.
It would be bad enough for Boris with BXP saying you promised we would have left by now, it's going to be far worse when they can add oh and your plan isn't Brexity Unicorny enough.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.0
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Missed that. But it’s unacceptable that MPs should have to sit on a Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Corbyn’s got his marrows to harvest and Abbott’s got a long-standing hair appointment.1 -
Thank you for your reply.eek said:
Whoever from Labour was being interviewed didn't say it out loud and the question really wasn't forced but it's clear that Labour sees little reason in meeting on Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
I assumed it had disappeared as it is not featuring in the news0 -
It’s funny. Fifteen years ago you’d find some Conservative posters on here making similar criticisms of the Labour Government at the time.Dura_Ace said:
They are quite obviously following the Putin/United Russia 2012 playbook to the letter. Having alienated the most advanced part of the electorate they are now going all in to attract the most backward via nationalism and letting public spending rip.AlastairMeeks said:
Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.asjohnstone said:
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.AlastairMeeks said:
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.moonshine said:
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.AlastairMeeks said:Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.
How times change.0 -
DUP must have been kept informed of what is going to have to be given up - and what the compensation will be.kle4 said:
Keep an eye on Baker and the DUP. No good getting encouraging movement from one side if the others move away.Big_G_NorthWales said:David Gauke on Sky saying Barnier's comments are encouraging
Whilst there has been talk of the UK becoming a Singapore off the coast of Europe, their smart move would be to limit it to Northern Ireland.....2 -
What you are missing is that the seat projections that you excoriate the writer for are drawn from uniform national swing and are obviously intended to be illustrative of the sort of changes rather than seat-by-seat predictions. In fact, what you are missing is that he is trying to do something totally different from what you are condemning him for doing.YBarddCwsc said:
I am pointing out explicitly that there are reasons specific to 3 of the target seats that suggest Plaid Cymru will not take them.AlastairMeeks said:
He specifically says:
"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."
and
"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"
If you are expelling activists in target seats (Llanelli), if your candidate in Cardiff West has been expelled (McEvoy), if your candidate in Blaenau Gwent has resigned (Copner) ... that tells you something about the state of the party in those seats.
That is completely different to the absolutely bleeding obvious point that you are making.1 -
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.0 -
Mr. Thompson, maybe.
I saw some videos a while ago suggesting that high cards (AK) versus low pocket pairs were something like 50/50 when it came to winning.
And with your pocket threes you're always going to worry that anybody else could have a better pair. Even if you get three of a kind, that's unlikely to be the best possible hand.
Edited extra bit: also depends where you're sat. Playing last with everyone else checking, could be good to be aggressive. Going first, if someone triples your raise you've got to wonder if they've got pocket aces or kings.0 -
Must have been one hell of a punch.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/50052735
What a great example to set to the rest of The Western Australian players.
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Moonshine says: "Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all"
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.0 -
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
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Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.MarqueeMark said:
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.kle4 said:
It's a smart play on their part.Stocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he isStocky said:Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
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In the event of a deal, the LibDems are going to have to take on Labour for the political turf of Sensible Centre-left. Once Corbyn has gone, they have lost their shot at taking it off them.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
Just being the Party of Rejoin will see them losing seats, net of where they currently are after recent defections.1 -
Yes, it’s aimed at trauma situations where there is bleeding on the brain, so good for sports doctors and A&E, but not for degenerative or accumulative conditions.nichomar said:
Whilst it is good news I was disappointed to read the article and find it is only effective in the first three hours and is not a wonder reversal drug.Sandpit said:
Potentially very good news for sports medicine, where a lot of head injury trauma occurs. There’s an amazing amount of research going on into head injury at the moment, great to see a simple and inexpensive drug prove so effective.Nigelb said:A cheap and effective drug for treatment of mild to moderate traumatic brain injury:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-499778270 -
If there is a deal I don’t think most will care what Farage says, save the hardcore few.Stocky said:Moonshine says: "Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all"
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.
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It's fake news, though I think not intentional - someone here saw an unenthusiastic Labour spokesman saying what's the point, and interpreted it as meaning Labour was trying to block it. And Corbyn will be there - his rally is in the evening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he isStocky said:Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
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I can imagine Farage ending up with about as many votes (and seats) as he got in 2015 with Ukip, which did not prevent a CON majority.Stocky said:Moonshine says: "Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all"
You are forgetting about Farage. He`ll kick up a frightful stink and the Tories will pay a heavy price if we exit with a deal.0 -
I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .0 -
Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong.kle4 said:
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.MarqueeMark said:
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.kle4 said:
It's a smart play on their part.Stocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
I would caution about a zero chance of the deal passingeek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Listening to the media this morning the chances of a deal are rising and with it your zero is a brave projection. It will depend on the DUP and ERG plus ex conservatives so I would wait to hear from them when and if a deal is arrived at0 -
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
He punches like a Russian shopgirl rescuing a homeless man.dr_spyn said:Must have been one hell of a punch.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/50052735
What a great example to set to the rest of The Western Australian players.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoU4aMwmfCE0 -
I don't think his viewpoint is different to mine. I suspect Labour sees Saturday meeting as pointless but they aren't revealing their plans yet.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he isStocky said:Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
The one thing that differs in our reporting is that it was Newsnight saying that Labour wishes to block Saturday - it wasn't the Labour interviewee who played a straight bat and wasn't asked directly - if given the opportunity would they vote against sitting on Saturday.
Personally I don't see the point of sitting on Saturday - the only reason for doing so is to vote through a deal before reading it and rescue Boris from having to ask for an extension.
Neither reason is a reason for sitting on Saturday in fact the former is a reason not to sit on Saturday.0 -
Most of the Tory rebels are anti no deal . Gauke voted three times for a deal to leave .Sandpit said:
Clearly worried that we might actually leave the EU.nico67 said:Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.
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Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.0 -
Well the MPs shouldn’t have passed a law containing Saturday’s date then, should they?ozymandias said:
Missed that. But it’s unacceptable that MPs should have to sit on a Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:Amongst some of the surreal talk late last night of UK nuking Spain did someone say that labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting
Corbyn’s got his marrows to harvest and Abbott’s got a long-standing hair appointment.2 -
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?1 -
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.moonshine said:
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.0 -
I am not missing it at all. It is understood and completely obvious to anyone with a little mathematical training, and the tiniest, meanest grasp of statistics and data analysis. Though apparently it is "big news" in the world of pensions, as you keep on making the point with tedious regularity month after month.AlastairMeeks said:
What you are missing is that the seat projections that you excoriate the writer for are drawn from uniform national swing and are obviously intended to be illustrative of the sort of changes rather than seat-by-seat predictions. In fact, what you are missing is that he is trying to do something totally different from what you are condemning him for doing.YBarddCwsc said:
I am pointing out explicitly that there are reasons specific to 3 of the target seats that suggest Plaid Cymru will not take them.AlastairMeeks said:
He specifically says:
"In these unprecedented political times, and with public support spread across several parties, all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution."
and
"If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election (though with similar caution about such projections as for Westminster)"
If you are expelling activists in target seats (Llanelli), if your candidate in Cardiff West has been expelled (McEvoy), if your candidate in Blaenau Gwent has resigned (Copner) ... that tells you something about the state of the party in those seats.
That is completely different to the absolutely bleeding obvious point that you are making.
I am pointing out that a party that is fucking up support in its target seats is not a party that is likely to be making any gains, either at Westminster or at the Senedd.
Plaid Cymru is now riven with serious internal dissent. Look how close both Copner & McEvoy came to talking the target seats last time round, and wonder why this has happened. Divided parties don't win elections, they don't take seats.
My guess is that the disillusioned PC vote is likely to help the Tories in any election because it is the more right-wing parts of Plaid Cymru support that are fed up. The Leannista wing (which would tend to favour Labour) is by and large in control of the party machinery.
So, the prediction of quite significant Tory gains in Wales rings true for a number of reasons.1 -
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).eek said:
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.moonshine said:
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.0 -
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .Chris said:
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .0 -
PB full of pray for no deal Remainers.
How times change.1 -
Not much point being a Labour MP anyway if you are never going to see power with Corbyn at the helm. Wait for Labour to lose, then Corbyn to go, sense to prevail, get invited back.eek said:
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.moonshine said:
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.0 -
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.nico67 said:
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .Chris said:
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .0 -
I agree, it is extension and election etc or No Deal.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).0 -
Thanks Nick and yes, it is inconceivable that Corbyn would not attendNickPalmer said:
It's fake news, though I think not intentional - someone here saw an unenthusiastic Labour spokesman saying what's the point, and interpreted it as meaning Labour was trying to block it. And Corbyn will be there - his rally is in the evening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he isStocky said:Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
0 -
A promise from Boris to have the whip reinstated is a big incentive to support the government in view of the impending GEnico67 said:
Most of the Tory rebels are anti no deal . Gauke voted three times for a deal to leave .Sandpit said:
Clearly worried that we might actually leave the EU.nico67 said:Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.0 -
There will be a good laugh to be had by the Tories in proposing they keep sitting all night until they have an agreement, to watch Labour vote it down because JC has a more important engagement to attend.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Nick and yes, it is inconceivable that Corbyn would not attendNickPalmer said:
It's fake news, though I think not intentional - someone here saw an unenthusiastic Labour spokesman saying what's the point, and interpreted it as meaning Labour was trying to block it. And Corbyn will be there - his rally is in the evening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to provide a different account to 'eek' and there is no indication that it has had any traction. If Corbyn wants to absent himself from one of the most theatrical days in politics since the war he is more stupid then even I think he isStocky said:Big_G_NorthWales: "labour said on Newsnight they want to stop this weekends HOC sitting" - This is where we are heading I think. Will avoid having to make a decision - it is the LP who are now trying to run down the clock and make BJ fail to exit by 31/10. I heard somewhere that Corbyn won`t be attending anyway.
0 -
That only works if there isn't an election in between your vote and Corbyn going and even then I'm not sure - it's not going to be the loss of whip that destroys your cushy number as an MP it's going to be your local party deselecting you.MarqueeMark said:
Not much point being a Labour MP anyway if you are never going to see power with Corbyn at the helm. Wait for Labour to lose, then Corbyn to go, sense to prevail, get invited back.
Chances are there will be an election before Corbyn leaves anyway.
And once Boris has a deal an election is probably a better plan for Labour than a referendum. Boris will have lost the unicorn option and will have to then fight an election with:-
LD - we don't want to leave.
Labour - we don't want to leave but if we leave Boris's deal is too hard core.
BXP - Boris's deal isn't hard enough and he's incompetent having promised we would leave on October 31st.
Boris having a deal to sell is actually worse for Boris than offering to negotiate - the unicornness will have disappeared taking 2 parts of his Brexit vote with it.0 -
AmazingDecrepitJohnL said:
He punches like a Russian shopgirl rescuing a homeless man.dr_spyn said:Must have been one hell of a punch.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/50052735
What a great example to set to the rest of The Western Australian players.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoU4aMwmfCE0 -
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.1 -
The trouble is that, for some of those who think for Boris, nixing the environmental and social stuff is the point of Brexit. Hence the shift in language from Canada plus plus plus to barebones Canada minus.NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
If nothing else it is bringing it all to a headChris said:
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?0 -
19 are committed to labour for a deal led by Stephen Kinnock and if you have seen todays Wales opinion poll you can see whyeek said:
No Labour MP wishing to remain a Labour MP will vote for Boris's deal. +- 1 would be a more accurate estimate.moonshine said:
Gosh, zero percent is quite a call. Of the 22, there are a few who are gone for good but the bulk want the whip back. Even Rory has said he'll vote for the deal even though he's still leaving.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
Of the ERG, both Redwood and Baker made positive noises two weeks ago, let's see where they end up. It's hard to imagine many ERG voting against if they both vote for.
Then there's the Labour block. We don't know how big that will be until the moment arrives but +- 15 seems a sensible guess.
I think it's a fair bet that if the DUP are supporting and Baker is supporting, then any deal gets through. Long way to go first though.0 -
The viewpoint of the current membership of local associations may bear little relationship to their constituents. I'm sure RochdalePioneers can atest to that.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.0 -
I think we've got to the point where if we were really going to leave without a deal in a fortnight's time we'd be seeing clear evidence of emergency preparations.eek said:
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.nico67 said:
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .Chris said:
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .0 -
You could be reading it badly wrong in the other direction. If a deal goes through, Brexit will still be a thing dominating politics because all the substantive decisions that will impact people's lives in Great Britain will have been deferred.MarqueeMark said:
Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong.kle4 said:
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.MarqueeMark said:
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.kle4 said:
It's a smart play on their part.Stocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
Personally you are giving this Government far more respect than I would.Chris said:
I think we've got to the point where if we were really going to leave without a deal in a fortnight's time we'd be seeing clear evidence of emergency preparations.eek said:
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.nico67 said:
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .Chris said:
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .0 -
Boris has activity antagonised and insulted Labour MPs. Because of that they will be less likely to ride to his rescue or participate in his political games. That dire Geoffrey Cox speech casts a long shadow.0
-
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
Not for those who aren't standing again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
A promise from Boris to have the whip reinstated is a big incentive to support the government in view of the impending GEnico67 said:
Most of the Tory rebels are anti no deal . Gauke voted three times for a deal to leave .Sandpit said:
Clearly worried that we might actually leave the EU.nico67 said:Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.0 -
The first that's necessery is to define what we mean by ' deal '. Agreeing what the deal will be is one thing. Getting international treaty text ready for EUCO to sign off by the early hours of Friday morning is quite another.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.0 -
Yes of course but the point relates to those who are and have not defectedNigelb said:
Not for those who aren't standing again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
A promise from Boris to have the whip reinstated is a big incentive to support the government in view of the impending GEnico67 said:
Most of the Tory rebels are anti no deal . Gauke voted three times for a deal to leave .Sandpit said:
Clearly worried that we might actually leave the EU.nico67 said:Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/jan/29/how-did-your-mp-vote-brady-cooper-amendmentseek said:
That only works if there isn't an election in between your vote and Corbyn going and even then I'm not sure - it's not going to be the loss of whip that destroys your cushy number as an MP it's going to be your local party deselecting you.MarqueeMark said:
Not much point being a Labour MP anyway if you are never going to see power with Corbyn at the helm. Wait for Labour to lose, then Corbyn to go, sense to prevail, get invited back.
Chances are there will be an election before Corbyn leaves anyway.
And once Boris has a deal an election is probably a better plan for Labour than a referendum. Boris will have lost the unicorn option and will have to then fight an election with:-
LD - we don't want to leave.
Labour - we don't want to leave but if we leave Boris's deal is too hard core.
BXP - Boris's deal isn't hard enough and he's incompetent having promised we would leave on October 31st.
Boris having a deal to sell is actually worse for Boris than offering to negotiate - the unicornness will have disappeared taking 2 parts of his Brexit vote with it.
This might well be the most illustrative guide to whether the thing gets passed or not (assuming DUP are on board).
There's several Blues in the Yes column that would now either vote Against or Abstain and at least 2 Blue Abstainers that would now vote Against. Question is how many.
Then we get to Nick's view on Labour.
Will be interesting to see if Boris makes it a "lose the whip" vote. If he does then he invites Corbyn to do the same, which might work out worse for him overall.
Who's best at counting?
0 -
Good point. Off the top of my head I can think of one of those latter they've easily lured on board hook, line and sinker.Dura_Ace said:
They are quite obviously following the Putin/United Russia 2012 playbook to the letter. Having alienated the most advanced part of the electorate they are now going all in to attract the most backward via nationalism and letting public spending rip.AlastairMeeks said:
Obviously so. He and Dominic Cummings are like monkeys frantically pulling levers, trying to work out which ones might open the trapdoor.asjohnstone said:
What he's trying to do is create a situation where he can be PM for the next 5 to 10 years; that's the strategy.AlastairMeeks said:
What he is trying to do now is the exact opposite of what he was trying to do in July.moonshine said:
And there it is. If Boris succeeds in achieving a with-deal Brexit, something you and many others called impossible, it was nothing to do with him. No. It was thanks to the heroic anti Brexit MPs.AlastairMeeks said:Aesop’s fable of the Sun and the Wind applies. Boris Johnson has tried brute force when a measured application of heat would probably have worked better. If he succeeds, it will be because of the actions of his opponents, not his own.
The form of Brexit is merely a tactical detail; I suspect he doesn't really care about anything except being PM.1 -
Labour have been finding excuses not to help the Tory leader of the day ever since June 23 2016. Yes Johnson is more antagonistic but don't kid me the response would be any different if May was still at the helm.Jonathan said:Boris has activity antagonised and insulted Labour MPs. Because of that they will be less likely to ride to his rescue or participate in his political games. That dire Geoffrey Cox speech casts a long shadow.
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SNAFU then.MarqueeMark said:Tory gains in Wales off-setting their losses in Scotland.
The election is about England.0 -
The news this morning, including from Barnier recommending to the EU foreign ministers, is that a deal can be agreed this weekYellow_Submarine said:The first that's necessery is to define what we mean by ' deal '. Agreeing what the deal will be is one thing. Getting international treaty text ready for EUCO to sign off by the early hours of Friday morning is quite another.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.0 -
Is Boris's big move to ditch the Benn Act getting a deal which looks suspiciously like No Deal to avert the delay letter? Given he still has to get an MV (or this Bill's equivalent) through the Commons, that feels like a big ask!Yellow_Submarine said:The first that's necessery is to define what we mean by ' deal '. Agreeing what the deal will be is one thing. Getting international treaty text ready for EUCO to sign off by the early hours of Friday morning is quite another.
This matters because the legal status of the deal reached this week has huge consequences for the MV and Benn Act situation. This is why european sources while being positive on the progress being made on *a* deal have turned very negative *the* deal being finalised this week.0 -
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?0 -
I'm not sure that's true. For a number of the retiring ones, the Conservative Club is probably a big part of their social life. They might still prefer to get the whip back before gracefully retiring. Even for an ardent Ref #2 person like Greening, I'd be surprised if she did more than Abstain.Nigelb said:
Not for those who aren't standing again.Big_G_NorthWales said:
A promise from Boris to have the whip reinstated is a big incentive to support the government in view of the impending GEnico67 said:
Most of the Tory rebels are anti no deal . Gauke voted three times for a deal to leave .Sandpit said:
Clearly worried that we might actually leave the EU.nico67 said:Gauke saying he still wants an extension even if the deal goes through .
Clearly worried about the time to get the legislation through and obviously doesn’t trust the ERG nutjobs or Bozo .
And why on earth would the rebels trust Johnson , and trust the ERG who might freak when they see the WAIB.0 -
Of course it would. Whilst it’s the oppositions constitutional duty to oppose (and boy is there much to oppose) an attempt to reach consensus would have yielded better results than the Polarising hostility practiced by Boris. Boris has closed off political wriggle room for individual MPs.Norm said:
Labour have been finding excuses not to help the Tory leader of the day ever since June 23 2016. Yes Johnson is more antagonistic but don't kid me the response would be any different if May was still at the helm.Jonathan said:Boris has activity antagonised and insulted Labour MPs. Because of that they will be less likely to ride to his rescue or participate in his political games. That dire Geoffrey Cox speech casts a long shadow.
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The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.0
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I suspect that's right; I suspect, and this is casual conversations rather than targeted canvassing, or similar, that most people want the argument over 'whether or not' over. What follows after that may well provoke further debate.williamglenn said:
You could be reading it badly wrong in the other direction. If a deal goes through, Brexit will still be a thing dominating politics because all the substantive decisions that will impact people's lives in Great Britain will have been deferred.MarqueeMark said:
Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong.kle4 said:
Enough people want remain I dont think that's true. It didnt happen last time and while the situation is different I dont think there's enough political benefit to enough people to see a deal over the line.MarqueeMark said:
It really isn't. Once there is a deal, the great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so.kle4 said:
It's a smart play on their part.Stocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
And it'll be relatively small things, and different for different people. For example, a cousin, who travels to Italy and France is very worried about her driving licence; she has been told that she may well need an Italian licence, obtained as a result of an Italian test. I've assured her that a son who lives in Thailand drives while there on an International licence, but she's still bothered.
Edited for grammar.0 -
Isn't it win-win though? If Brexit continues not to happen they have a permanent grievance. The poltics of grievance and betrayal is their route to power.NickPalmer said:
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?0 -
Johnson's "Deal" is mince. It makes a mess of Northern Ireland and offers nothing to the rest of the UK. The longer agreement is delayed the more likely people will realise it has no substance.eek said:
I believe there is zero chance of Boris's deal being passed next week. It requires Boris both getting the 22 MPs he sacked back on board and having a deal that the ERG will vote for it. And the ERG don't have any reason to vote for it as they can just leave and join BXP.moonshine said:
Most people I know have severe Brexit fatigue. Campaign managers tend to listen to focus groups before finalising their campaign messaging. It's quite probable that if the motion gets passed in the next week, the next election won't feature Brexit much at all - save for the predictable hysteria about Britain becoming Trump's lackey during Phase 2 of the process.DecrepitJohnL said:
The Conservative Party did not make Boris pay a very heavy price. They made him prime minister after he voted down an agreed deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest the public will make labour pay a very heavy price if they vote down an agreed deal.Stocky said:MarkeeMark: "It really isn't. The great bulk of the public will blame Labour for keeping Brexit going as a thing - and think them twats for doing so."
Regretably, I don`t think that the public are that smart.
This suits both Tory and Labour equally well, as it fits more neatly into the traditional Left v Right narrative than Brexit v Remain. It's the Lib Dems that will need to think most carefully about how they position themselves to maintain their recent progress. Quite interested to see what they do.
As for any election - now Boris has a deal he has tied himself down and Brexit support only works if everyone's unicorn Brexit still exists and now a deal is tied down those unicorn Brexit voters may be off elsewhere (to Labour if it's too hard and to BXP if it's not hard enough).
People who have Brexit fatigue shouldn't have voted for it. How do they think Remainers feel?0 -
The *only* reason it’s being held is because Saturday’s date is the one in the Benn Act.Yellow_Submarine said:The ' Super Saturday ' sitting only makes sense if a MV or Benn Act no deal motion is being debated. If not then it's a tax payer funded Boris election rally. Labour are quite right to keep the door ajar to voting against a Saturday sitting until we know why the Saturday sittting would be being held.
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That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.0 -
Mr. Jonathan, it's not the Opposition's duty to mindlessly oppose but to hold the Government to account.1
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Are you seriously saying there is not a whole heap of substance to oppose here? The government’s policy is a basket case. They’re scrabbling around to find something, anything to save their own skin and meet an arbitrary self imposed deadline. Any opposition has to oppose this nonsense.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, it's not the Opposition's duty to mindlessly oppose but to hold the Government to account.
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Excellent point, and one too often forgotten.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, it's not the Opposition's duty to mindlessly oppose but to hold the Government to account.
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The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.
Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.1 -
Mr. Jonathan, I didn't say that.
I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.
The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.0 -
Labour will oppose any deal for perceived political advantage, that's very clearNickPalmer said:
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?2 -
Read the Wales opinion poll this morning to understand Kinnock's positionYellow_Submarine said:The Kinnockite grouping has been chuntering about backing MV4 if the social/environmental/level playing field provisions in the PD were *beefed up*.
Boris has ( so far ) entirely removed them. One of the more mystifying aspects of the PB Brexit echo chamber is why Kinnock is going to ride to the resuce just at the moment the Tories have moved even further from his position.0 -
The opposition has a clear duty to oppose this ‘horrendous government’ and its basket case Brexit policy. It’s not as if it has to pick holes here. The flaws are obvious and gargantuan.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, I didn't say that.
I was disputing your assertion that an Opposition's duty is simply to oppose without any consideration of the national interest, or other relevant factors.
The Government's horrendous. So's the Opposition.0 -
MarqueeMArk says: "Having been out on the doorsteps, I really think you are reading that badly wrong."
Can you elaborate? What exactly are you hearing on the doorstep?0 -
From what I've heard, emergency preparations are indeed being made, albeit discreetly.Chris said:
I think we've got to the point where if we were really going to leave without a deal in a fortnight's time we'd be seeing clear evidence of emergency preparations.eek said:
Boris knows that he needs an extension - he just needs to be "forced" into accepting one from the EU rather than asking for it himself.nico67 said:
Well he’s obsessed with the pledge in which case he should have put plans forward much earlier rather than parade around the country for photo ops .Chris said:
It is just bizarre that Johnson is still continuing to insist we are leaving at the end of the month, regardless of what is actually happening in the negotiations and regardless of how much time may be required to complete the process.nico67 said:I think the big problem for Johnson .
If the summit says we’re nearly there but need more time next week .
MPs know that something could crop up to unravel the deal , and equally the legislation might hit the buffers .
If talks go into next week then it’s simply impossible to ratify in time but I expect Bozo will insist on the impossible and continue his stupid pledge rhetoric on Saturday which will in turn force MPs to not back anything until an extension is in place .
How can a grown man act in such an absolutely idiotic way?
I really don’t see the big deal if it takes a few more weeks . Even with all his ridiculous rhetoric , if a deal is passed and the UK leaves , are leave supporters really going to hold it against him .0 -
I don't really get the fear of Windermere turning into Norilsk. Surely the whole point is that there's no democratic consent for backsliding on the environment in the UK, quite the opposite actually. But Brexit gives the power back to the UK electorate.nichomar said:
That’s why it’s a terrible deal but I’m afraid people are trying to push/wish this over the line because it’s a deal, any deal will do. The fun will come when the so called easy to do FTA runs into trouble on day one as they won’t want a tinpot Singapore lookalike on their doorstep.kamski said:
Isn't the whole point of Brexit getting rid of social and environmental regulations for quite a few, if not most, tory brexiters in Parliament?NickPalmer said:
I think you'll find they don't, and I'm usually a fair judge on PLP attitudes. Can see a few in favour and half a dozen abstentions, nothing like 40. But it does of course depend on what the deal, if it happens, actually says. Boris needs to pivot on social and environmental alignment - that matters to Labour MPs, whereas the DUP and the ERG regard it as a peripheral issue.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour wont but upto 40 labour mps mayStocky said:eek says: "I'm curious as to how things play out when Boris has a deal but needs an election before Parliament will accept it. "
Quite - that`s why Labour will never vote for a Tory deal. Your scenario would put BJ in a bind because BXP would be hammerring the Tories for wanting a BINO.
Even the Tories have legislated for a carbon-neutral economy and are signed up to Paris. Why do you need anything in an EU Exit Agreement on top of this?
By the way, Singapore is looking at a very interesting project of piping in solar power from Australia using HVDC. While it has a weak welfare net generally, it has a largely nationalised housing sector and excellent cheap public transport. I suspect you'd like quite a lot about it. Tin pot it is not.0 -
XR disguised as Orthodox Jews trying to smash up the DFT.
Ticks a lot of class of 2019 lefty boxes that one.
https://order-order.com/2019/10/15/eco-terrorist-attacking-department-transport/0 -
It's either cake or humble pie for Boris on Saturday says Peston.Pulpstar said:
Labour will oppose any deal for perceived political advantage, that's very clearNickPalmer said:
They'll get deselected in no time if they do - voting for Singapore-on-Thames is something that neither the centrists nor the Corbynites will accept. I think you'll see MPs saying "I'd be willing to vote for a deal, but not this deal" - and meaning it.MarqueeMark said:
Bigger number is the ex-Labour Whip holders.moonshine said:
No doubt if we get as far as a vote, Mr Shadsy will oblige you with a spreadbet. If the DUP say yes, you've already got +1 Labour Whip holder voting for (Hoey).
I wonder how many of the Kinnock 19 will meet with their local associations and get their blessing to defy the whip. They'll know the mood on the doorsteps.
Whether the hard right really see it as the whole point I do wonder. They want to get out - does the ability to skimp on climate change measures or employment laws really mean more to them?
My guess is cake. Humble pie for the naysayers.
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