Mr. kle4, a referendum between a Boris Johnson Deal and Remain would almost certainly be won by Remain.
I do think advocates of such significantly underestimate the long term political damage they'd cause (you can vote any way you like, but it's only pretend unless you agree with your MPs), but in the short term all the problems would belong to the Conservatives.
If they tack sceptically, they're wide open to people annoyed by the endless blather and just want a resolution one way or another. If they go for the "We accept the second referendum result" line, there's a risk of being outflanked by BP.
If we do get another referendum I'll be looking keenly for markets on Remain, and by certain margins.
If Remain won any EUred2 against a Boris Deal say 55% to 45%, Boris would just become an Alex Salmond for Leavers, cry 'betrayal' and that 45% would become a Tory landslide under FPTP
SNP only projected to get 48 seats then ie still well down on the 56 seats they got at their peak in 2015 while the Scottish Tories on 5 seats projected still well up on the number they got at every general election from 1997 to 2017, so that is encouraging for Boris and his chances of an overall Tory majority. The LDs will also be pleased they are forecast to gain a seat in Scotland.
Disaster for Scottish Labour though as they slump back to just the 1 seat they got in 2015, losing 6 current Labour seats
On the other hand, Labour was not polling at 20% in Scotland in April 2017 - more like 13% /14% - yet on Polling Day the party managed over 27%. These are far from being good figures for Labour but they actually rather imply more stability in its vote share in Scotland than in GB as a whole - ie a fall of circa 7% compared with circa 16% across GB. The poll also confirms my longstanding view that if - and it is a big 'if' - Labour recoves much of its lost ground in the course of an election campaign , its Scotland vote share could end up at circa 30% - with gains there being likely.
Personally Justin even I might cheer Labour gains from the SNP as I did in 2017, given both Labour and SNP MPs will vote against a Tory PM you might as well at least support the one who is Unionist
Likewise I would vote Tory - rather than SNP or Plaid.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
Mr. kle4, a referendum between a Boris Johnson Deal and Remain would almost certainly be won by Remain.
I do think advocates of such significantly underestimate the long term political damage they'd cause (you can vote any way you like, but it's only pretend unless you agree with your MPs), but in the short term all the problems would belong to the Conservatives.
If they tack sceptically, they're wide open to people annoyed by the endless blather and just want a resolution one way or another. If they go for the "We accept the second referendum result" line, there's a risk of being outflanked by BP.
If we do get another referendum I'll be looking keenly for markets on Remain, and by certain margins.
If Remain won any EUred2 against a Boris Deal say 55% to 45%, Boris would just become an Alex Salmond for Leavers, cry 'betrayal' and that 45% would become a Tory landslide under FPTP
What about the 'Will of the People'?
It will have been ignored. Once you have set that precedent you cannot reverse it.
Dominic Cummings must have wargamed that it is better to have Jacob Rees-Mogg inside the Cabinet tent pissing out, rather than leaving him to fester and plot with the ERG. JRM stepped down on being appointed Leader of the House. Steve Baker replaced JRM as ERG big cheese (his second stint).
JRM has taken the King's Shilling. He now has to dance to the tune.
I'm losing the thread on all this. Cummings is Boris's boss. Perhaps Boris has two bosses. Or is Cummings reporting to Trump directly. Then of course Putin is Trump's boss.
So who is running Putin?
"The Family". ie the 110 people who own 35% of the Russian economy. Putin was, originally, the creation of Berezovsky. He was worried that Yeltsin was going to lose control and wanted, in his words, a "Russian Pinochet" - an authoritarian who would defend capitalism.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
Murphy has been moved away from Jezza. She was one of the ones most pushing him to no go down the referendum route it has been reported.
Dominic Cummings must have wargamed that it is better to have Jacob Rees-Mogg inside the Cabinet tent pissing out, rather than leaving him to fester and plot with the ERG. JRM stepped down on being appointed Leader of the House. Steve Baker replaced JRM as ERG big cheese (his second stint).
JRM has taken the King's Shilling. He now has to dance to the tune.
Doesn’t he ‘attend cabinet’, without being a member of it?
I see HYUFD is framing the SCons 'only' losing 2/3 of their seats as a good result; marvellous stuff.
Wings Over Scotland will be disappointed at these numbers, his constant theme nowadays is that the SNP are doing it all wrong.
His non stop 'othering' of the SNP is relentless.
He has a massive problem as the person he would naturally fall behind to unseat Nicola is Joanna Cherry but Cherry is completely bound up in the anti Brexit position that Stu finds so terrible.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
We're actually more or less all in favour of that, but we want a referendum where we can live with both outcomes. If Boris's deal is Singapore-on-Thames, we don't want a referendum on that, because if it carried we'd be plunging down a very dark alley for a decade. Since Parliament can't really take over haggling in detail, that does need a Government prepared to negotiate a soft Brexit and put it as one choice in a referendum, with Remain as the other choice. That does appear to mean a short-term Corbyn government, but that's actually not the main point - a Bercow government or whatever might be a way to get there.
Opting for a referendum where you think one outcome is ruinous is exactly the irresponsibility that got us into this mess when Cameron did it. I do get that serious Brexiteers feel that a Soft Brexit vs Remain is not a proper choice because they want a Singapore Brexit (or some other variety) in there - but that's where Labour parts company with them. We are not as Remain-at-all-costs as the LibDems, but we're not up for offering a Brexit choice that we think would be disastrous. Don't you agree?
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
A deal that leaves NI adrift of both the the UK and RoI and doesn't do anything for the rest of the UK is unworkable. It doesn't satisfy the requirements of the DUP, the majority in NI, the EU, business or moderates in the UK.
The MVD (minimum viable deal) is May's Deal and that's only because it allows a discreet transfer to the Vassal State later.
Dominic Cummings must have wargamed that it is better to have Jacob Rees-Mogg inside the Cabinet tent pissing out, rather than leaving him to fester and plot with the ERG. JRM stepped down on being appointed Leader of the House. Steve Baker replaced JRM as ERG big cheese (his second stint).
JRM has taken the King's Shilling. He now has to dance to the tune.
Doesn’t he ‘attend cabinet’, without being a member of it?
I believe so, but he's still taking the King's Shilling, as much as any junior minister would, but more so as his position is more senior than that.
SNP only projected to get 48 seats then ie still well down on the 56 seats they got at their peak in 2015 while the Scottish Tories on 5 seats projected still well up on the number they got at every general election from 1997 to 2017, so that is encouraging for Boris and his chances of an overall Tory majority. The LDs will also be pleased they are forecast to gain a seat in Scotland.
Disaster for Scottish Labour though as they slump back to just the 1 seat they got in 2015, losing 6 current Labour seats
On the other hand, Labour was not polling at 20% in Scotland in April 2017 - more like 13% /14% - yet on Polling Day the party managed over 27%. These are far from being good figures for Labour but they actually rather imply more stability in its vote share in Scotland than in GB as a whole - ie a fall of circa 7% compared with circa 16% across GB. The poll also confirms my longstanding view that if - and it is a big 'if' - Labour recoves much of its lost ground in the course of an election campaign , its Scotland vote share could end up at circa 30% - with gains there being likely.
Personally Justin even I might cheer Labour gains from the SNP as I did in 2017, given both Labour and SNP MPs will vote against a Tory PM you might as well at least support the one who is Unionist
Likewise I would vote Tory - rather than SNP or Plaid.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
Dominic Cummings must have wargamed that it is better to have Jacob Rees-Mogg inside the Cabinet tent pissing out, rather than leaving him to fester and plot with the ERG. JRM stepped down on being appointed Leader of the House. Steve Baker replaced JRM as ERG big cheese (his second stint).
JRM has taken the King's Shilling. He now has to dance to the tune.
Doesn’t he ‘attend cabinet’, without being a member of it?
That is because there are only upright chairs around the table. JRM needs somewhere to lounge....
Cabinet meetings these days must be something to witness. It must be Platitude Central in there...
It’s not the path per se, but the fact that they don’t regard the Queen as their Head of State. That’s more fundamental than - say - Skinner (who i believe crosses his fingers)
I wonder if they wouldn't be up for a deal including an oath of the kind that Boris is supposedly considering:
1. Take the oath, with crossed fingers and openly saying "we have to do this to get the other things but we don't really believe it" 2. The oath requirement is abolished, and replaced by "Be a true and faithful representative of my constituents". 3. Referendum in Northern Ireland on union with Eire.
If they thought they'd have a shot at winning 3, it would make 1-2 irrelevant anyway.
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
We're actually more or less all in favour of that, but we want a referendum where we can live with both outcomes. If Boris's deal is Singapore-on-Thames, we don't want a referendum on that, because if it carried we'd be plunging down a very dark alley for a decade. Since Parliament can't really take over haggling in detail, that does need a Government prepared to negotiate a soft Brexit and put it as one choice in a referendum, with Remain as the other choice. That does appear to mean a short-term Corbyn government, but that's actually not the main point - a Bercow government or whatever might be a way to get there.
Opting for a referendum where you think one outcome is ruinous is exactly the irresponsibility that got us into this mess when Cameron did it. I do get that serious Brexiteers feel that a Soft Brexit vs Remain is not a proper choice because they want a Singapore Brexit (or some other variety) in there - but that's where Labour parts company with them. We are not as Remain-at-all-costs as the LibDems, but we're not up for offering a Brexit choice that we think would be disastrous. Don't you agree?
To get to where you suggest, though, would be to contemplate something that Labour (including McDonnell) has firmly ruled-out - a GONU, not a Labour minority government led by Corbyn. Unless Long Bailey has changed her mind on that (and, therefore, McDonnell has, too), I do not see how what she said could mean anything other than a referendum on the Johnson deal.
SNP only projected to get 48 seats then ie still well down on the 56 seats they got at their peak in 2015 while the Scottish Tories on 5 seats projected still well up on the number they got at every general election from 1997 to 2017, so that is encouraging for Boris and his chances of an overall Tory majority. The LDs will also be pleased they are forecast to gain a seat in Scotland.
Disaster for Scottish Labour though as they slump back to just the 1 seat they got in 2015, losing 6 current Labour seats
On the other hand, Labour was not polling at 20% in Scotland in April 2017 - more like 13% /14% - yet on Polling Day the party managed over 27%. These are far from being good figures for Labour but they actually rather imply more stability in its vote share in Scotland than in GB as a whole - ie a fall of circa 7% compared with circa 16% across GB. The poll also confirms my longstanding view that if - and it is a big 'if' - Labour recoves much of its lost ground in the course of an election campaign , its Scotland vote share could end up at circa 30% - with gains there being likely.
Personally Justin even I might cheer Labour gains from the SNP as I did in 2017, given both Labour and SNP MPs will vote against a Tory PM you might as well at least support the one who is Unionist
Likewise I would vote Tory - rather than SNP or Plaid.
How frustrating for both of you it must be to not have an iota of influence over how either of these parties perform.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
SNP only projected to get 48 seats then ie still well down on the 56 seats they got at their peak in 2015 while the Scottish Tories on 5 seats projected still well up on the number they got at every general election from 1997 to 2017, so that is encouraging for Boris and his chances of an overall Tory majority. The LDs will also be pleased they are forecast to gain a seat in Scotland.
Disaster for Scottish Labour though as they slump back to just the 1 seat they got in 2015, losing 6 current Labour seats
On the other hand, Labour was not polling at 20% in Scotland in April 2017 - more like 13% /14% - yet on Polling Day the party managed over 27%. These are far from being good figures for Labour but they actually rather imply more stability in its vote share in Scotland than in GB as a whole - ie a fall of circa 7% compared with circa 16% across GB. The poll also confirms my longstanding view that if - and it is a big 'if' - Labour recoves much of its lost ground in the course of an election campaign , its Scotland vote share could end up at circa 30% - with gains there being likely.
Personally Justin even I might cheer Labour gains from the SNP as I did in 2017, given both Labour and SNP MPs will vote against a Tory PM you might as well at least support the one who is Unionist
Likewise I would vote Tory - rather than SNP or Plaid.
How frustrating for both of you it must be to not have an iota of influence over how either of these parties perform.
?? What difference does that make when someone is essentially listing out their own personal order of preference for parties? Are SNP or Plaid supporters frustrated for not having influence over others?
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Would be piss funny. Overtly anti-racist party led by a man who has opposed racism all His blessed life gets found - with detail and evidence! - to be riddled full of screaming antisemites, has to pay out compensation even Unite hasn't got the cash for and folds. At which point the Bastani-Williamson Pact blames Soros and dark money circulating though the Israeli embassy
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Dominic Cummings must have wargamed that it is better to have Jacob Rees-Mogg inside the Cabinet tent pissing out, rather than leaving him to fester and plot with the ERG. JRM stepped down on being appointed Leader of the House. Steve Baker replaced JRM as ERG big cheese (his second stint).
JRM has taken the King's Shilling. He now has to dance to the tune.
Doesn’t he ‘attend cabinet’, without being a member of it?
Yes although what that means in practice apart from not getting a ministers salary from HMG i don’t know.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Well they should get one in the lesser Newcastle next time.
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Would be piss funny. Overtly anti-racist party led by a man who has opposed racism all His blessed life gets found - with detail and evidence! - to be riddled full of screaming antisemites, has to pay out compensation even Unite hasn't got the cash for and folds. At which point the Bastani-Williamson Pact blames Soros and dark money circulating though the Israeli embassy
Indeed! Magic grandpa and the brown shirts begging for scraps outside Westminster as the ruling classes thumb their noses and tut at the scummy bigots and their fall from grace
Dominic Cummings must have wargamed that it is better to have Jacob Rees-Mogg inside the Cabinet tent pissing out, rather than leaving him to fester and plot with the ERG. JRM stepped down on being appointed Leader of the House. Steve Baker replaced JRM as ERG big cheese (his second stint).
JRM has taken the King's Shilling. He now has to dance to the tune.
Doesn’t he ‘attend cabinet’, without being a member of it?
Yes although what that means in practice apart from not getting a ministers salary from HMG i don’t know.
It means you get laughed at by proper Cabinet Ministers once you leave the room.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Well they should get one in the lesser Newcastle next time.
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Well they should get one in the lesser Newcastle next time.
Tynemouth is achievable
IIRC, and without Googling, wasn't it held in the 70's-80's by a fairly formidable Tory lady?
It's certainly the case that political discourse has declined. That doesn't mean we should disregard the risk of it worsening or pretend that if we ended up staying in the EU that comes without any drawbacks.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
We're actually more or less all in favour of that, but we want a referendum where we can live with both outcomes. If Boris's deal is Singapore-on-Thames, we don't want a referendum on that, because if it carried we'd be plunging down a very dark alley for a decade. Since Parliament can't really take over haggling in detail, that does need a Government prepared to negotiate a soft Brexit and put it as one choice in a referendum, with Remain as the other choice. That does appear to mean a short-term Corbyn government, but that's actually not the main point - a Bercow government or whatever might be a way to get there.
Opting for a referendum where you think one outcome is ruinous is exactly the irresponsibility that got us into this mess when Cameron did it. I do get that serious Brexiteers feel that a Soft Brexit vs Remain is not a proper choice because they want a Singapore Brexit (or some other variety) in there - but that's where Labour parts company with them. We are not as Remain-at-all-costs as the LibDems, but we're not up for offering a Brexit choice that we think would be disastrous. Don't you agree?
Serious Brexiteers need to accept that Singapore Brexit probably means the end of peace in Ireland. So it 'aint worth the candle, no matter how much they lust after it.
In twenty years (say) when Ireland is one country following a referendum etc etc., then they can come back to this.
In the meantime, compromise. Get a deal done and move on.
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
Accepting constituency expenses, office expenses, staff wages etc would seem to be an acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the UK Parliament.
Btw anyone watching the 1.59 challenge? The level of support is extreme but so is the aspiration. Its Roger Bannister territory.
Is he on the same juice as Mo ?
Few things are more depressing than former heroes being exposed.
I can’t stand the work of Gauguin since I found out what an utter shit he was in real life. My childhood hero Bowie has never been seen in the same light since I found out that he was into the same kind of age group as a prominent member of the Haus Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha. I’ve lost count of the number of athletes and cyclists I once cheered on who have since been disgraced.
Fans of Churchill would do well to not dig too deep into his back-story. It kind of takes the sheen off.
All ammunition to my theory that Corbyn is going to resign as leader before calling a VONC. There is no way he is going to go down to such an ignominious defeat when his party has all the cards at the moment.
Even if he were such a megalowmaniac not to see it -which I don't think he is-his backers wouldn't put up with it. A two month Labour leadership contest followed by a VONC and an election early next year and Labour would be in with a chance.
Why would he do that given that his polling position in relation to the Tories is far stronger than at the outset of the 2017 election?
Because the circumstances are different. Last time Corbyn got the votes of anti- Leavers many because they knew he couldn't win. He won't get them this time.
I disagree - Brexit was not a particularly salient issue in 2017 - far less so than attitudes to Corbyn himself. He both inspired and repelled many voters.
SNP only projected to get 48 seats then ie still well down on the 56 seats they got at their peak in 2015 while the Scottish Tories on 5 seats projected still well up on the number they got at every general election from 1997 to 2017, so that is encouraging for Boris and his chances of an overall Tory majority. The LDs will also be pleased they are forecast to gain a seat in Scotland.
Disaster for Scottish Labour though as they slump back to just the 1 seat they got in 2015, losing 6 current Labour seats
On the other hand, Labour was not polling at 20% in Scotland in April 2017 - more like 13% /14% - yet on Polling Day the party managed over 27%. These are far from being good figures for Labour but they actually rather imply more stability in its vote share in Scotland than in GB as a whole - ie a fall of circa 7% compared with circa 16% across GB. The poll also confirms my longstanding view that if - and it is a big 'if' - Labour recoves much of its lost ground in the course of an election campaign , its Scotland vote share could end up at circa 30% - with gains there being likely.
Personally Justin even I might cheer Labour gains from the SNP as I did in 2017, given both Labour and SNP MPs will vote against a Tory PM you might as well at least support the one who is Unionist
Likewise I would vote Tory - rather than SNP or Plaid.
How frustrating for both of you it must be to not have an iota of influence over how either of these parties perform.
?? What difference does that make when someone is essentially listing out their own personal order of preference for parties? Are SNP or Plaid supporters frustrated for not having influence over others?
Given who and what the English have voted for, I became pretty fatalistic about what they were up to a while back. In fact I'd rather not have to be faced with all their shit options.
Saying 'if only I was there, I'd vote for X to stuff Y' just sounds weedy.
It’s not the path per se, but the fact that they don’t regard the Queen as their Head of State. That’s more fundamental than - say - Skinner (who i believe crosses his fingers)
I wonder if they wouldn't be up for a deal including an oath of the kind that Boris is supposedly considering:
1. Take the oath, with crossed fingers and openly saying "we have to do this to get the other things but we don't really believe it" 2. The oath requirement is abolished, and replaced by "Be a true and faithful representative of my constituents". 3. Referendum in Northern Ireland on union with Eire.
If they thought they'd have a shot at winning 3, it would make 1-2 irrelevant anyway.
It's a British Parliament. They are Irish. If you read the article I linked to above, the logic of the principle means they don't believe they have a right to vote in the British Parliament to determine what happens to Britain, because they aren't British.
It's a category error. There's no compromise possible on that. They will never take up their Westminster seats.
I'd have more respect with Farage's gang if they adopted such an abstentionist policy in relation to the European Parliament. I thought that if the Tories had adopted such a policy for the recent European elections it might have helped convince some voters that they were determined to leave as soon as possible, and helped to save some votes.
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
Exactly right. Parliament could depose the Queen and declare a republic and SF still wouldn’t take their seats. They don’t want a republic, they want the Irish Republic. That means a 32-county republic completely separate from Britain: there’s a reason why the official name of the Irish state is “Ireland” and it’s description is “the Republic of Ireland”,and not “the Irish Republic”.
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
Accepting constituency expenses, office expenses, staff wages etc would seem to be an acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the UK Parliament.
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Would be piss funny. Overtly anti-racist party led by a man who has opposed racism all His blessed life gets found - with detail and evidence! - to be riddled full of screaming antisemites, has to pay out compensation even Unite hasn't got the cash for and folds. At which point the Bastani-Williamson Pact blames Soros and dark money circulating though the Israeli embassy
Indeed! Magic grandpa and the brown shirts begging for scraps outside Westminster as the ruling classes thumb their noses and tut at the scummy bigots and their fall from grace
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Would be piss funny. Overtly anti-racist party led by a man who has opposed racism all His blessed life gets found - with detail and evidence! - to be riddled full of screaming antisemites, has to pay out compensation even Unite hasn't got the cash for and folds. At which point the Bastani-Williamson Pact blames Soros and dark money circulating though the Israeli embassy
Indeed! Magic grandpa and the brown shirts begging for scraps outside Westminster as the ruling classes thumb their noses and tut at the scummy bigots and their fall from grace
What’s caused this ‘labour bankruptcy stories?
Supposed report from the NEC about the party facing claims from members and ex-members if the anti-semitism investigation finds against them. Which might be expecting a lot, frankly.
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Would be piss funny. Overtly anti-racist party led by a man who has opposed racism all His blessed life gets found - with detail and evidence! - to be riddled full of screaming antisemites, has to pay out compensation even Unite hasn't got the cash for and folds. At which point the Bastani-Williamson Pact blames Soros and dark money circulating though the Israeli embassy
Indeed! Magic grandpa and the brown shirts begging for scraps outside Westminster as the ruling classes thumb their noses and tut at the scummy bigots and their fall from grace
What’s caused this ‘labour bankruptcy stories?
Some media reports that if the EHRC find them guilty of anti semitism the legal actions against them would bankrupt them. For which, amusingly, all members will be liable
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
Accepting constituency expenses, office expenses, staff wages etc would seem to be an acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the UK Parliament.
Yep - I am not defending it, just noting it!
I’m sure they regard it as soaking the Brits for the Cause.
Btw anyone watching the 1.59 challenge? The level of support is extreme but so is the aspiration. Its Roger Bannister territory.
Is he on the same juice as Mo ?
Few things are more depressing than former heroes being exposed.
I can’t stand the work of Gauguin since I found out what an utter shit he was in real life. My childhood hero Bowie has never been seen in the same light since I found out that he was into the same kind of age group as a prominent member of the Haus Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha. I’ve lost count of the number of athletes and cyclists I once cheered on who have since been disgraced.
Fans of Churchill would do well to not dig too deep into his back-story. It kind of takes the sheen off.
The IRA stuff may have more weight now hes been exposed as magic jew hating grandpa. The report should come out just in time to bankrupt them ahead of a GE
Would be piss funny. Overtly anti-racist party led by a man who has opposed racism all His blessed life gets found - with detail and evidence! - to be riddled full of screaming antisemites, has to pay out compensation even Unite hasn't got the cash for and folds. At which point the Bastani-Williamson Pact blames Soros and dark money circulating though the Israeli embassy
Indeed! Magic grandpa and the brown shirts begging for scraps outside Westminster as the ruling classes thumb their noses and tut at the scummy bigots and their fall from grace
What’s caused this ‘labour bankruptcy stories?
If the human rights/equality commission or whatever it is called, find that the anti-semitism was institutional (and so on), then victims will sue for a ton of cash.
Unions will take the hit, but will be a major problem.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Well they should get one in the lesser Newcastle next time.
Tynemouth is achievable
IIRC, and without Googling, wasn't it held in the 70's-80's by a fairly formidable Tory lady?
Neville trotter had it for them 74 to 92, before that Baronness Ward. Its moved hard away since 92 though
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
Accepting constituency expenses, office expenses, staff wages etc would seem to be an acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the UK Parliament.
(In the same way that EP expenses have kept UKIP and the Brexit Party alive for the past 10 years!)
Sinn Fein not takin their seats in the Commons is not about swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen, it is aboutr refusing to recognise that the British Parliament's right to any jurisdiction over Northern Ireland. There are no circumstances under which they will take their seats. The oath is irrelevant.
Accepting constituency expenses, office expenses, staff wages etc would seem to be an acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the UK Parliament.
Yep - I am not defending it, just noting it!
I’m sure they regard it as soaking the Brits for the Cause.
Yep, I guess the thinking is that if the Brits want to give us money and support we'll take it.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
I imagine the journey Rebecca has been on is realising she can't win the impending leadership election by being the least europhile candidate.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I'm only projecting a rise of 7% in the Tory share very achievable anywhere. If this seat were to fall it will be because of a complete cratering of labours position, much of that going to BXP
On topic... I'm not sure the Tories are paying enough attention to Scotland. Their successes there in 2017 basically prevented it being game on between a minority Tory and minority Lab or leftish coalition, and reversing them will do them no favours. Indeed, a strong SNP showing probably drags the future prospects remainward more than Labour would.
You can see why some Tories seem to have pivoted to an English Nationalist position instead of unionist: "If it wasn't for those pesky Scots/six counties.."
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Well they should get one in the lesser Newcastle next time.
Tynemouth is achievable
IIRC, and without Googling, wasn't it held in the 70's-80's by a fairly formidable Tory lady?
Neville trotter had it for them 74 to 92, before that Baronness Ward. Its moved hard away since 92 though
All ammunition to my theory that Corbyn is going to resign as leader before calling a VONC. There is no way he is going to go down to such an ignominious defeat when his party has all the cards at the moment.
Even if he were such a megalowmaniac not to see it -which I don't think he is-his backers wouldn't put up with it. A two month Labour leadership contest followed by a VONC and an election early next year and Labour would be in with a chance.
Why would he do that given that his polling position in relation to the Tories is far stronger than at the outset of the 2017 election?
Because the circumstances are different. Last time Corbyn got the votes of anti- Leavers many because they knew he couldn't win. He won't get them this time.
I disagree - Brexit was not a particularly salient issue in 2017 - far less so than attitudes to Corbyn himself. He both inspired and repelled many voters.
Corbyn's relative success in 2017 was more due to May than to himself.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Well they should get one in the lesser Newcastle next time.
Tynemouth is achievable
IIRC, and without Googling, wasn't it held in the 70's-80's by a fairly formidable Tory lady?
Neville trotter had it for them 74 to 92, before that Baronness Ward. Its moved hard away since 92 though
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I'm only projecting a rise of 7% in the Tory share very achievable anywhere. If this seat were to fall it will be because of a complete cratering of labours position, much of that going to BXP
A 7 % increase from what was obtained in an election in which the Tories nationally polled 43.5% is very ambitious indeed - particularly in the NE.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
I imagine the journey Rebecca has been on is realising she can't win the impending leadership election by being the least europhile candidate.
Yep, I imagine that is almost certainly true. Her rival, Laura Pidcock, from the Corbyn side is also pro-Brexit. This is one reason why there is likely to be a loing time before a leadership election. The far left candidates have to give time for Brexit to be less salient for Labour members.
I always like the "substitution principle". Change "Trans" to "Black", "Jewish", "Old", "English", etc..... It soon becomes obvious what the offensiveness is.
Dehumanising anyone is offensive. Firing him might be a second option if he simply refuses to apologise.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I especially agree with your second point. I don't think the Brexit churn will be anywhere as near as much as some suggest. It's become too obviously tribal. The ferocity with which the Tories are pushing for it might attract some Labour Leavers, but I think it'll put at least as many Labour Leavers off. People have a tendency to minimise the "Labour" part of "Labour Leaver", which I think is somewhat mistaken.
All ammunition to my theory that Corbyn is going to resign as leader before calling a VONC. There is no way he is going to go down to such an ignominious defeat when his party has all the cards at the moment.
Even if he were such a megalowmaniac not to see it -which I don't think he is-his backers wouldn't put up with it. A two month Labour leadership contest followed by a VONC and an election early next year and Labour would be in with a chance.
Why would he do that given that his polling position in relation to the Tories is far stronger than at the outset of the 2017 election?
Because the circumstances are different. Last time Corbyn got the votes of anti- Leavers many because they knew he couldn't win. He won't get them this time.
I disagree - Brexit was not a particularly salient issue in 2017 - far less so than attitudes to Corbyn himself. He both inspired and repelled many voters.
Corbyn's relative success in 2017 was more due to May than to himself.
That was only part of it - Corbyn campaigned effectively and the Labour manifesto was pretty popular.
I see the logic. But an election before the future relationship is settled still leaves quite a lot of Brexit water to be trod. If I was Swinson, I'd pivot to something EFTAish with an option on rejoining at some point in the probably-distant future.
And having done as well as she has so far, I think she could add some attractive clear yellow water* between her and Corbyn on domestic stuff too which would keep hold of the metropolitan elite types.
She ain't going to lead a government.. but she could keep the LDs in the 50+ seat Clegg territory with significant bargaining power, rather than the single-figures Farron territory wanging on about the gays.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
I imagine the journey Rebecca has been on is realising she can't win the impending leadership election by being the least europhile candidate.
Yep, I imagine that is almost certainly true. Her rival, Laura Pidcock, from the Corbyn side is also pro-Brexit. This is one reason why there is likely to be a loing time before a leadership election. The far left candidates have to give time for Brexit to be less salient for Labour members.
On topic... I'm not sure the Tories are paying enough attention to Scotland. Their successes there in 2017 basically prevented it being game on between a minority Tory and minority Lab or leftish coalition, and reversing them will do them no favours. Indeed, a strong SNP showing probably drags the future prospects remainward more than Labour would.
You can see why some Tories seem to have pivoted to an English Nationalist position instead of unionist: "If it wasn't for those pesky Scots/six counties.."
Many now realise that Irish reunification is strongly in England’s interest. Won’t be long before the penny drops regarding Scotland.
Ugh I'd like to read it, but autoplay videos, shit-tonnes of adverts, "answer this question to read the rest of the article" means it a no from me. Is there a more obnoxiously intrusive website than the indy?
All ammunition to my theory that Corbyn is going to resign as leader before calling a VONC. There is no way he is going to go down to such an ignominious defeat when his party has all the cards at the moment.
Even if he were such a megalowmaniac not to see it -which I don't think he is-his backers wouldn't put up with it. A two month Labour leadership contest followed by a VONC and an election early next year and Labour would be in with a chance.
Why would he do that given that his polling position in relation to the Tories is far stronger than at the outset of the 2017 election?
Because the circumstances are different. Last time Corbyn got the votes of anti- Leavers many because they knew he couldn't win. He won't get them this time.
I disagree - Brexit was not a particularly salient issue in 2017 - far less so than attitudes to Corbyn himself. He both inspired and repelled many voters.
Corbyn's relative success in 2017 was more due to May than to himself.
That was only part of it - Corbyn campaigned effectively and the Labour manifesto was pretty popular.
As opposed to the Tory one, which was a bit of a mess.
Only a matter of time now and it will be a landslide when it comes.
Probably, but you were mocking and laughing at the idea the tories would win anywhere near the Westminster seats they did and were just plain wrong despite your certainty. I think you're right on this, but if things get a bit more stable, and that's a big if, who knows.
What is certain is very high SNP and Indy support for the foreseeable future.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. It was hard to imagine that the moronic labour/Lib Dem voters would help the Tories. Hard to believe the amount of halfwits about in the country. The clowns will hopefully have learned their lesson.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I especially agree with your second point. I don't think the Brexit churn will be anywhere as near as much as some suggest. It's become too obviously tribal. The ferocity with which the Tories are pushing for it might attract some Labour Leavers, but I think it'll put at least as many Labour Leavers off. People have a tendency to minimise the "Labour" part of "Labour Leaver", which I think is somewhat mistaken.
They are however polling half their 2017 vote in some polls atm, those votes will disappear disproportionately from more leavish seats
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I especially agree with your second point. I don't think the Brexit churn will be anywhere as near as much as some suggest. It's become too obviously tribal. The ferocity with which the Tories are pushing for it might attract some Labour Leavers, but I think it'll put at least as many Labour Leavers off. People have a tendency to minimise the "Labour" part of "Labour Leaver", which I think is somewhat mistaken.
Agreed. Both big parties are mistaking the *depth* of Brexit feeling for its *breadth*.
I'm beginning to suspect the remain alliance all have money on a Boris landslide. They surely can't imagine they are winning votes right now? Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
The Tories have held a Sunderland seat in my politics watching lifetime. And, IIRC, a Newcastle one, too.
Sunderland central is winnable in the current climate, Houghton and Sunderland south just out of reach unless they hit 40 and labour are low 20s nationally, Newcastle was fractionally remain though so I think they are definitely out of wor lass there.
Can you paint me a scenario where the Conservatives gain Sunderland Central. I'm staring at the last few results and the national polling, and I'm totally failing to see how you think it happens. What percentages do you think the parties would end up on?
Ok last election was 55 to 33, so 11% swing needed. In 2010 it was 46 to 30 on a 7% lead for the Tories, seat was 61% leave in the referendum. So on a national lead of let's say 12% (38 to 26 perhaps) I could see the Con share in SC rising due to Brexit differential offsetting vote loss in the south to around 40 or 41 and labours vote cratering by 15%, a third of the 2017 vote roughly, a drop of 6% from 2010 on a lower national share. It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Many Brexit Party voters in the NE would never touch the Tories with a barge pole . Much more likely to revert to Labour. You are also massively overestimating the saliency of Brexit in a GE campaign - however obsessed political anoraks are with the issue.
I especially agree with your second point. I don't think the Brexit churn will be anywhere as near as much as some suggest. It's become too obviously tribal. The ferocity with which the Tories are pushing for it might attract some Labour Leavers, but I think it'll put at least as many Labour Leavers off. People have a tendency to minimise the "Labour" part of "Labour Leaver", which I think is somewhat mistaken.
People have a tendency to minimise the "Labour" part of "Labour Leaver", which I think is somewhat mistaken.
Indeed i want Leave but will vote for Socialism everytime
Jo Swinson thinks it is entirely possible that the Lib Dems could be a majority government with 'me' as Prime Minister
Deluded halfwit. Swinson I mean not you.
And there's no greater expert on "Deluded halfwits" than yourself.
*you, not yourself.
Long live the Grammar police!
I wouldn't correct just any old chump, it's only because he's a contributor. The quality of the writing on this site is pretty patchy and I don't think there's anything wrong with having high standards in writing a piece. Perhaps I'm in the wrong place for that.
LOL, can your head fit through a barn door. I can just imagine having a pint with you , NOT.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
I imagine the journey Rebecca has been on is realising she can't win the impending leadership election by being the least europhile candidate.
Yep, I imagine that is almost certainly true. Her rival, Laura Pidcock, from the Corbyn side is also pro-Brexit. This is one reason why there is likely to be a loing time before a leadership election. The far left candidates have to give time for Brexit to be less salient for Labour members.
Nah the left candidate wins no matter what their BX view
Priti Patel on Marr. That smirk is not a good look
There's not many people whom I look at and think they are pure evil, but Patel is one of them. If someone told me there was an MP who went around in the dead of night quietly sliding knives into the necks of sleeping homeless people, she would be my first, second and third guesses.
To be fair, she's my MP, and I had a problem over Dartford Crossing payments. She was very helpful.
To be fair, I don't know much about her. I'm realise my gut instinct is probably wrong, but I do have that gut instinct. I honestly would move heaven and earth to avoid being alone with her.
Face to face she can be quite pleasant, if only to look at. I've met her several times and I suspect that because I'm polite she thinks I'm a supporter. However, the last time we met she said something about 'Would you like Corbyn as Prime Minister?" and I said, slowly, something like 'Well.....' She looked horrified.
Her face is nice enough. She is broad-beamed further down. Or, to be blunt, she has a big fat arse and her choice of clothes do her no favour by emphasising her size.
She may be doing it on purpose, of course.
Anyway, I have my first serious cold and sore throat of the season so you can put my uncharacteristic acidity down to that.
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
I imagine the journey Rebecca has been on is realising she can't win the impending leadership election by being the least europhile candidate.
Yep, I imagine that is almost certainly true. Her rival, Laura Pidcock, from the Corbyn side is also pro-Brexit. This is one reason why there is likely to be a loing time before a leadership election. The far left candidates have to give time for Brexit to be less salient for Labour members.
Jo Swinson thinks it is entirely possible that the Lib Dems could be a majority government with 'me' as Prime Minister
Deluded halfwit. Swinson I mean not you.
And there's no greater expert on "Deluded halfwits" than yourself.
*you, not yourself.
Long live the Grammar police!
I wouldn't correct just any old chump, it's only because he's a contributor. The quality of the writing on this site is pretty patchy and I don't think there's anything wrong with having high standards in writing a piece. Perhaps I'm in the wrong place for that.
LOL, can your head fit through a barn door. I can just imagine having a pint with you , NOT.
Depends on the barn door. I've been known to get stuck in the smaller ones. And in case there was any confusion, I wasn't asking you to go for a pint.
It’s not the path per se, but the fact that they don’t regard the Queen as their Head of State. That’s more fundamental than - say - Skinner (who i believe crosses his fingers)
I wonder if they wouldn't be up for a deal including an oath of the kind that Boris is supposedly considering:
1. Take the oath, with crossed fingers and openly saying "we have to do this to get the other things but we don't really believe it" 2. The oath requirement is abolished, and replaced by "Be a true and faithful representative of my constituents". 3. Referendum in Northern Ireland on union with Eire.
If they thought they'd have a shot at winning 3, it would make 1-2 irrelevant anyway.
It's a British Parliament. They are Irish. If you read the article I linked to above, the logic of the principle means they don't believe they have a right to vote in the British Parliament to determine what happens to Britain, because they aren't British.
It's a category error. There's no compromise possible on that. They will never take up their Westminster seats.
I'd have more respect with Farage's gang if they adopted such an abstentionist policy in relation to the European Parliament. I thought that if the Tories had adopted such a policy for the recent European elections it might have helped convince some voters that they were determined to leave as soon as possible, and helped to save some votes.
All good points. Also self evident ones. I wonder why so few people get them?
TSE and others have asked me to guess Labour support for the putative deal, as I got it right the last couple of times. We don't really know what the deal is, if it materialises, but assuming it's as described (Irish Sea border, no hard commitment to EU guarantees of social and environmental rules), I think Labour support will be under 5 (not even Kate Hoey will support it if the DUP don't). The lack of social alignment guarantees is what's alienating Labour pro-Dealers, even resolutely centrist ones, and the 19 who looked possible are sounding distinctly less keen:
I don't think there's a majority for a referendum on it either, though. Labour's view is that we should have a referendum where we can live with either outcome, and I don't think Labour can live with this one. If Boris pulls out some social guarantees, that could change.
Rebecca Long Bailey - of the McDonnell wing of the leadership - has this morning said she favours a referendum before a general election. She has "been on a journey". McDonnell is also in favour of this, of course. It does look as if Labour is seriously splitting on the issue. When push comes to shove, who will back the Corbyn line over the McDonnell one (which is also the one favoured by the vast majority of Labour members).
I imagine the journey Rebecca has been on is realising she can't win the impending leadership election by being the least europhile candidate.
Yep, I imagine that is almost certainly true. Her rival, Laura Pidcock, from the Corbyn side is also pro-Brexit. This is one reason why there is likely to be a loing time before a leadership election. The far left candidates have to give time for Brexit to be less salient for Labour members.
Or Labour massively loses the next election...
That will make no difference.
Have they really retreated into that level of delusion?
Of course, if they lose massively they might lose key Cultists. It may be the only hope
Not sure why anyone is surpised to be honest. Jezza hasn't changed his mind since about 1974.
Jezza was a loyal supporter of the late Tony Benn, who fought for the referendum in 1975 and then campaigned against the EU on very much the grounds that Farage did 40 years later. Jezza's never changed his view on many things since those days, and I suspect his view of the EU is basically unchanged as well.
Priti Patel on Marr. That smirk is not a good look
There's not many people whom I look at and think they are pure evil, but Patel is one of them. If someone told me there was an MP who went around in the dead of night quietly sliding knives into the necks of sleeping homeless people, she would be my first, second and third guesses.
To be fair, she's my MP, and I had a problem over Dartford Crossing payments. She was very helpful.
To be fair, I don't know much about her. I'm realise my gut instinct is probably wrong, but I do have that gut instinct. I honestly would move heaven and earth to avoid being alone with her.
Face to face she can be quite pleasant, if only to look at. I've met her several times and I suspect that because I'm polite she thinks I'm a supporter. However, the last time we met she said something about 'Would you like Corbyn as Prime Minister?" and I said, slowly, something like 'Well.....' She looked horrified.
Her face is nice enough. She is broad-beamed further down. Or, to be blunt, she has a big fat arse and her choice of clothes do her no favour by emphasising her size.
Comments
"The Family". ie the 110 people who own 35% of the Russian economy. Putin was, originally, the creation of Berezovsky. He was worried that Yeltsin was going to lose control and wanted, in his words, a "Russian Pinochet" - an authoritarian who would defend capitalism.
He has a massive problem as the person he would naturally fall behind to unseat Nicola is Joanna Cherry but Cherry is completely bound up in the anti Brexit position that Stu finds so terrible.
Opting for a referendum where you think one outcome is ruinous is exactly the irresponsibility that got us into this mess when Cameron did it. I do get that serious Brexiteers feel that a Soft Brexit vs Remain is not a proper choice because they want a Singapore Brexit (or some other variety) in there - but that's where Labour parts company with them. We are not as Remain-at-all-costs as the LibDems, but we're not up for offering a Brexit choice that we think would be disastrous. Don't you agree?
The MVD (minimum viable deal) is May's Deal and that's only because it allows a discreet transfer to the Vassal State later.
Good update here:
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1183308636380127232
Con gain Sunderland Central. Geordies toy with the insane idea of putting a bastard blue in westminister but fall short of such a monstrosity. You heard it here first.
Cabinet meetings these days must be something to witness. It must be Platitude Central in there...
1. Take the oath, with crossed fingers and openly saying "we have to do this to get the other things but we don't really believe it"
2. The oath requirement is abolished, and replaced by "Be a true and faithful representative of my constituents".
3. Referendum in Northern Ireland on union with Eire.
If they thought they'd have a shot at winning 3, it would make 1-2 irrelevant anyway.
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1183320027489017856
It's certainly the case that political discourse has declined. That doesn't mean we should disregard the risk of it worsening or pretend that if we ended up staying in the EU that comes without any drawbacks.
In twenty years (say) when Ireland is one country following a referendum etc etc., then they can come back to this.
In the meantime, compromise. Get a deal done and move on.
I can’t stand the work of Gauguin since I found out what an utter shit he was in real life. My childhood hero Bowie has never been seen in the same light since I found out that he was into the same kind of age group as a prominent member of the Haus Sachsen-Coburg und Gotha. I’ve lost count of the number of athletes and cyclists I once cheered on who have since been disgraced.
Fans of Churchill would do well to not dig too deep into his back-story. It kind of takes the sheen off.
Saying 'if only I was there, I'd vote for X to stuff Y' just sounds weedy.
It's a category error. There's no compromise possible on that. They will never take up their Westminster seats.
I'd have more respect with Farage's gang if they adopted such an abstentionist policy in relation to the European Parliament. I thought that if the Tories had adopted such a policy for the recent European elections it might have helped convince some voters that they were determined to leave as soon as possible, and helped to save some votes.
It's a very tough ask but if we get an election with Brexit dominating or on a Boris bounce from delivering a deal then it's just about doable and the sort of totemic seat that would represent a sea change
Pretty sure she wont be leader in the next race, but I am just about green just in case.
Unions will take the hit, but will be a major problem.
Its moved hard away since 92 though
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-boris-johnson-corbyn-labour-election-jo-swinson-a9153276.html
You can see why some Tories seem to have pivoted to an English Nationalist position instead of unionist: "If it wasn't for those pesky Scots/six counties.."
Dehumanising anyone is offensive. Firing him might be a second option if he simply refuses to apologise.
People have a tendency to minimise the "Labour" part of "Labour Leaver", which I think is somewhat mistaken.
And having done as well as she has so far, I think she could add some attractive clear yellow water* between her and Corbyn on domestic stuff too which would keep hold of the metropolitan elite types.
She ain't going to lead a government.. but she could keep the LDs in the 50+ seat Clegg territory with significant bargaining power, rather than the single-figures Farron territory wanging on about the gays.
(*euggh)
Is there a more obnoxiously intrusive website than the indy?
Indeed i want Leave but will vote for Socialism everytime
Not sure why anyone is surpised to be honest. Jezza hasn't changed his mind since about 1974.
She may be doing it on purpose, of course.
Anyway, I have my first serious cold and sore throat of the season so you can put my uncharacteristic acidity down to that.
And in case there was any confusion, I wasn't asking you to go for a pint.
I want Scotland to win but going to be tough
Of course, if they lose massively they might lose key Cultists. It may be the only hope
Jezza's never changed his view on many things since those days, and I suspect his view of the EU is basically unchanged as well.
Men will forgave a pretty face nearly anything. What? Being a total cow? Or having a big arse?
Get well soon