politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » News Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gain
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New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 https://t.co/syj1N2Kmdr pic.twitter.com/ASOz17y6qr
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Good on them.
A lot of water to go under bridge before Super Ssturday mind.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/49090388
Would be quite funny though to see the two parties that have always held out for FPTP shafted due to a freak by a party that has always opposed it.
Wonder if it'll be carried, despite having, as it probably will, free unicorns all round, and a clear path to the end of the rainbow.
If anything they have been, up until now, conspicuously quiet on the No-Deal/Boris-Deal/Benn/Prorouguing debates, and only now, when the plan seems to be 'treat NI differently from GB' are they starting to comment. Comments which are completely in-line with DUP policy.
If a technical extension is needed so be it . Instead we get more divisive nonsense peddled by the MOS.
No spoilers, as I guess most haven’t watched live.
Mr. Away, I have mixed feelings. Legal action in sport is generally dickish, but the cancellation would've materially affected Scotland's chances. Apparently Italy might take legal action as their match *was* cancelled.
Mr. Sandpit, aye, quite entertaining.
We're talking of a generation-defining plan, which only a handful know in outline, hasn't been written yet, and may not fully work. Yet the intention seems to be to vote on it in less than a week, with it coming into force in less than three weeks.
Why is that not insane?
Cricket World Cup was the same, there was plenty of spare time in the schedule to deal with a few days of disruption, although luckily for that tournament the problems were earlier in the group stages and didn’t give the impression of affecting the tournament.
Well done to F1 and the Suzuka promotors for managing to reschedule their weekend around the weather, even if everyone is now very tired after a long day.
The Withdrawal Agreement is going to be a long legal document full of very specific requirements. The talk seems to be of going from friendly talk to the WA coming into force in three weeks. It takes longer than that to buy a house.
Even if he were such a megalowmaniac not to see it -which I don't think he is-his backers wouldn't put up with it. A two month Labour leadership contest followed by a VONC and an election early next year and Labour would be in with a chance.
Brexit is very symbolic of how the Union is broken, it has no future.
We could see anything from a deal agreed and passed, to the PM resigning to avoid signing the extension letter.
However, I do think that's the last I'll see of my money. Even with Labour rebels I can't really see how this deal would pass. There are supposedly 25 Tory rebels. Even if some of them are swung round, noises from the hard right DUP and ERG are not at all promising.
Do we really think an unholy alliance will see this through? I don't. Still, 4/1 is possibly worth the shot so I've taken it.
There is no candidate with the ability and charisma to be a British @AOC.
The other reason is that parties change leaders when they want a change in direction. That change is not going to be to the left.
I'm not familiar with the labour rule book , but I doubt a 2 month selection process and election is feasible.
Johnson's plan, such as it it is, is unworkable. While NI gets its FTZ, which might boost the economy, it's a constitutional mess and the absence of any agreed arrangements for the rUK make it close to No Deal there.
A deal may be signed because both sides want it, and something better may come along later, I suppose.
And is the Queens Speech vote immediately after it? Thought there were a few days debate.
Does Boris run for election on "leave with my deal" against BXP who are denouncing it as a sell-out?
Or does he try to return to his previous position so he can ride both horses, tell everyone to disregard what he just said and announce that his new deal was actually kind of shitty after all, and promise to renegotiate a third deal, which will be better than the first two because he's taken those off the table again and put No Deal back on it???
Disaster for Scottish Labour though as they slump back to just the 1 seat they got in 2015, losing 6 current Labour seats
"Should Scotland continue to be part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?"
Though with No Deal though support for independence rises to 54%, albeit excluding Don't Knows
I think he’ll probably resign after the election (assuming he doesn’t end up as PM of course), and give one of the younger MPs four or five years as LotO to develop.
Outgoing leaders rarely have the ability or influence to appoint their successors. They are outgoing because they have failed, and what influence they had is diminished.
I'm sure you, or one of your relatives has read the oath they have to swear.
But I'm interested in whether he is really going to expel Tory Brexiteers who vote against the deal, and what happens then. Farage's parties haven't shown much success in winning new seats, but they have been better at holding the seats of defectors.
As Bruce Forsyth might have said 'Didn't he do well!'
As to a leadership contest and how they would rig it I find the Tees Valley mayoral candidate selection to be instructive. The anointed candidate is backed by Momentum and Unite. Her supporters advised CLPs to only nominate her in contravention of the rules. Sadly some CLPs clarified the rules with the party who confirmed they could nominate more than 1 candidate. So at the last minute her challenger was disqualified because before he joined the Labour Party he tweeted nice things about (then independent Tees Mayoral candidate) Andy Preston.
To celebrate her appointment how does Jessie Joe Jacobs act? That's right, she tweets her support for the independent mayor of Middlesbrough Andy Preston.
Activists have been told they will now back the candidate. In Stockton where activists were already few on the ground a mass washing of hair is now planned. For the national leadership surely the Corbynite NEC would do the same, simply disqualifying other candidates on the grounds that they are not Laura Pidcock
So net net a wash and Cons need to look elsewhere for their OM.
'I will not countenance a Scots Independence referendum in the early years of a labour government'
https://twitter.com/georgeperetzqc/status/1183287089271574528?s=21
Just surprised he did not say "Scotch"
The Benn Act means that here has to be what we used to call a ‘Meaningful Vote’ on the deal, and if that passes then the PM isn’t required to ask for an extension.
The potential loophole is that, if the single meaningful vote passes, there then needs to be legislation to implement the agreement, which could be withdrawn by government (maybe following an amendment for a referendum) and we leave on 31st with no deal if that legislation is not passed.
Today's poll gives labour one seat, maybe that should be zero
Incidentally the BFX minimal deal is the one to pick surely?
So still a net Tory gain of 5 seats in the North and Scotland combined and that is ignoring Tory gains from Labour in the Midlands, Wales and London current polls project
Even if they would prefer Scotland to stay in the UK and EU they prefer Scottish independence if English and Welsh voters want to Leave the EU.
I suspect the Tories have to find 18-20 seats just to stand still and that assumes they win all the seats of the 22 Boris has kicked out.