politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU
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I’m tempted to move back to London and campaign for him.Scrapheap_as_was said:Good luck Rory!
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I can't see Stewart getting many voters in inner London.0
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I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.Dadge said:0 -
OT. My new top of the political interviewers is Mishal Husein. Her interview with Stephen Barkely set the questions for the day yesterday both in the media and in parliament. It was clear she was more knowledgable about the plan than he was. No bullying Just having a bigger brain and doing her homework. Pointing out the sticking points he hadn't anticipated
The standard of BBC journalists is at an all time high. Though I'd put Mihal and Katya Adler top Nick Robinson is also extremely good. Only Laura K seems well off the pace.
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Ha you don’t have to do that. I just can’t see there’s much upside of backing long term big odds on shots in political betting. Someone else tipped Labour most seats at odds on about a year or 18 months ago, seemed absolute madness to me.Pulpstar said:
I've topped up £50 on Khan at 7-10. I'll work out the value of my position in a second for youisam said:
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Rory cant honestly think he has any chance of winning.0
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Khan may need to tack left now in order to secure victory. He's not as impressive as Stewart and might need to rely on Labour tribalism rather than espousing centrist Liberal values because he'll be trumped in that respect by Stewart and the yellows.0
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Khan's playing on easy mode, they'll probably be fighting to finish runner up to him.Brom said:Khan may need to tack left now in order to secure victory. He's not as impressive as Stewart and might need to rely on Labour tribalism rather than espousing centrist Liberal values because he'll be trumped in that respect by Stewart and the yellows.
Edit: I think his left flank is pretty secure. Corbyn and Labour members will be calling on people to vote Labour in the Mayoral elections. He'd have to work to lose it.0 -
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
Blimey I was considering condemning Jake Berry! Poor show Burgon, and me.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
There are actually two cases going on .Scott_P said:
They’ve separated them out . One to hear whether an order can be made to comply with the Benn Act and the other what the tweet is in relation to .
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Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
I don’t know much about Burgon tbh.
I agreed with the statement that if it was true it was a disgrace.
If the MP did not say this then happy to withdraw the criticism.1 -
Nothing personal.Pulpstar said:
You always see these sorts of contests so differently to me !Nigelb said:
I don't think so.Pulpstar said:4-1 instinctively feels too short for Rory the Tory.
A very smart move from him, which we perhaps ought to have seen coming.
It is the one high profile contest in the country where party backing doesn't count for everything.
I think if anything he ought to be slightly shorter odds than that.
Of course it's possible that he falls flat on his face, but I don't think so.0 -
Perhaps Cyclefree rushed to pronounce her verdict before considering all of the evidence. Others may have done likewise regarding Gove's speech yesterday.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195852 -
To be fair the membership was offered Boris as runaway favourite from the MPs. They were never going to anul that choice. It was always said that Boris might be the darling of the faithful but MPs were far too wise to allow him on the final ticket. Hence the 'lay Boris' orthodoxy. Something obviously has gone very wrong!Flanner said:
Johnson is a creep - but he's always been one. Tory activists used to be ideologically misdirected, but at heart well-meaning. They're the ones who've chosen an incontinent, incompetent - and bizarrely inarticulate - liar to run the government.Roger said:. Even in his wildest dreams as a Bullingdon Boy trashing restaurants Boris could never have dreamt of the destruction he would one day cause. What a guy!
The blame lies squarely with them.1 -
Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
Burgon spooked by the calm tone of the PMs statement yesterday so makes shit up to try and keep the anger flowing. Sad. Very labour, but sad.0
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The difficulty for those bringing the case is the courts don’t normally do things in anticipation of a law being broken , they normally act once that’s happened.
But we live in strange times !
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Fair enough, -£55 is the current book value. Stewart weirdly short on Betfair right now.isam said:
Ha you don’t have to do that. I just can’t see there’s much upside of backing long term big odds on shots in political betting. Someone else tipped Labour most seats at odds on about a year or 18 months ago, seemed absolute madness to me.Pulpstar said:
I've topped up £50 on Khan at 7-10. I'll work out the value of my position in a second for youisam said:0 -
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Tory and SNP elected in Bridge of Don on first preferences. Tories edge SNP for first place on a 10% vote increase2
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See my post upthread.humbugger said:
Perhaps Cyclefree rushed to pronounce her verdict before considering all of the evidence. Others may have done likewise regarding Gove's speech yesterday.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
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Anyway, today is a day for reading the Henriques report.
Till later......0 -
It’s very fashionable to view what people say through the prism of whether they’re on your side before researching or thinking.humbugger said:
Perhaps Cyclefree rushed to pronounce her verdict before considering all of the evidence. Others may have done likewise regarding Gove's speech yesterday.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
Berry’s behaviour is now a wiki fact
“In October 2019, whilst in the House of Commons, Berry came under criticism for shouting "Britain first! Britain first!", the extremist language of words used by Jo Cox's murderer Thomas Mair when he fatally shot and stabbed her. Mair is currently serving life imprisonment.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Berry0 -
Is Burgon copying the Tory tactic when they claimed Corbyn said stupid woman?dyedwoolie said:Burgon spooked by the calm tone of the PMs statement yesterday so makes shit up to try and keep the anger flowing. Sad. Very labour, but sad.
Would be a bit low if he did. Not just going to blindly trust something a member of Johnson's cabinet says personally though.0 -
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"Diehard Remainers" LOL
"Believe in Brexit" is good, too. Does it qualify for faith status ?
https://twitter.com/ShaileshVara/status/11800479627030528000 -
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Happened to glance at the Betfair Exchange Premier League title market.
I know Liverpool and Manchester City are rightly favourites, but literally every other team is more than 100/1. Is that right? [Must say this isn't my area and I've been paying minimal attention, it just surprised me].0 -
Richard Burgon is a man known for his honest recollection of events...
Labour’s Richard Burgon has been proven to have lied when he denied he had ever said "Zionism is the enemy of peace", as footage of him using these words was exposed.
The shadow justice secretary appeared on the BBC's Daily Politics Show in March 2018 and presenter Andrew Neil asked about a Daily Mail report that claimed he said this.
Mr Burgon insisted repeatedly that he “didn’t say that” and “that’s not my view.”
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-s-richard-burgon-revealed-to-have-lied-when-he-denied-saying-zionism-is-the-enemy-of-peace-1.4830912 -
Shadsy taking the cash, bringing in Stewart without lengthening KhanScott_P said:0 -
Everything was a broad church for those liberal minded folk before they lost wasn’t it? We all had to rub along together and compromise...Scott_P said:0 -
Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:
CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
RED: 0.2% (+0.2)
No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
3:40 am - 4 Oct 20190 -
Yes.Morris_Dancer said:Happened to glance at the Betfair Exchange Premier League title market.
I know Liverpool and Manchester City are rightly favourites, but literally every other team is more than 100/1. Is that right? [Must say this isn't my area and I've been paying minimal attention, it just surprised me].
EDIT: Mind you, Leicester ought to be third favourites. They're not - they are 200/1. A win tomorrow will see that price go below 100/1.0 -
A review of Scotland's Yard disastrous inquiry into false allegations of a VIP paedophile ring found warrants to search the homes of the wrongly accused suspects were obtained "unlawfully".
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49933843
I actually think it is wrong that the media keep repeating the names of those that were raided / accused in every report. It keeps bringing them to public attention and there will always be some that think no smoke without fire.0 -
Summary of last nights local by elections. Another very good night for the Lib Dems, a pretty good night for the Tories, especially in Aberdeen, SNP holding firm. One great green surge but other results poor and Labour lost votes in every election, in fact at least 5% in every single one. L to the o to the l0
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Hasn't always been the case. I understand that in past centuries the (children's especially) death rate in London, due to poor sewage systems and so on was so high in many years that, had people not followed the example of the late R. Whittington Esq. (and cat), the population of the city would have fallen.isam said:
I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.Dadge said:
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How does Stewart expect to be taken seriously? One minute he's standing for Tory leader, next he is quitting the party altogether! What does he believe in exactly? Himself, it seems, that's all.
next...0 -
Jezza isn't...as its Friday, he will be in the allotment or meeting some weird anti-Zionist Hamas loving Jews in his local greengrocers.rottenborough said:Seriously rattled:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1180069923365806080
Clearly some staffers have decided they must react though.0 -
Some things against Stewart
i) No official mark
ii) No obvious London connection
iii) Pro Brexit.0 -
Do you really think he is?rottenborough said:Seriously rattled:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1180069923365806080
Khan will beat him easily, quite frankly I don't think Corbyn would be that harmed even if he didn't.1 -
It is a very odd decision. I would have thought a better plan would have gone and done a David Miliband type thing and then in a few years when Boris has gone come back as a moderate voice.Pulpstar said:Some things against Stewart
i) No official mark
ii) No obvious London connection
iii) Pro Brexit.
To be perfectly honest, I actually think Rory would be best ditching politics and doing the international aid thing, as it is something he genuinely believes in.0 -
I can understand why non Londoners like living there, and why London born people move away... and the reverse of both opinions! Just interested to knowOldKingCole said:
Hasn't always been the case. I understand that in past centuries the (children's especially) death rate in London, due to poor sewage systems and so on was so high in many years that, had people not followed the example of the late R. Whittington Esq. (and cat), the population of the city would have fallen.isam said:
I wonder how many PBers who live in London were born there, and how many who were born there, don’t.Dadge said:0 -
Deleted -- replied to wrong post.0
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Labours impressive run of results continues ....felix said:
Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:
CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
RED: 0.2% (+0.2)
No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
3:40 am - 4 Oct 2019
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Obviously Shailesh has been reading my PB posts
https://twitter.com/ShaileshVara/status/1180047962703052800?s=201 -
It's a bit of a non-denial denial, and at second hand. Was the exchange caught on telly?TheJezziah said:
Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1179750304247619585
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Rory managed to piss off the other rebels by trying to take all the media limelight. The "lone wolf" London Mayor job was all that was open to him.GIN1138 said:What happened to Rory starting a new political party and becoming the UKs Macron?
Of course, it served Boris well.
Of course, Boris managed to get elected.....0 -
What would you say Rory’s true % chance was? 20?Tissue_Price said:Sadiq 8/13
Rory 2/1
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20669323/D1/E43867842/F2/0 -
If Rory gets to the final 2 in the London Mayoral race he could have an outside chance of beating Sadiq Khan with Tory and LD preferences
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1180054614713999361?s=200 -
Mikey Smith, journo from above looked and couldn't tell either way. I think it is a bit like when Corbyn was accused of saying stupid woman, arguable either way and some people will believe whatever suits their biases.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's a bit of a non-denial denial, and at second hand. Was the exchange caught on telly?TheJezziah said:
Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).isam said:
What would you say Rory’s true % chance was? 20?Tissue_Price said:Sadiq 8/13
Rory 2/1
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20669323/D1/E43867842/F2/
It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.0 -
If he'd *screamed* it twice, it would have been picked up.TheJezziah said:
Mikey Smith, journo from above looked and couldn't tell either way. I think it is a bit like when Corbyn was accused of saying stupid woman, arguable either way and some people will believe whatever suits their biases.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's a bit of a non-denial denial, and at second hand. Was the exchange caught on telly?TheJezziah said:
Luckily we have someone from Johnson's cabinet to clear the matter up, a group noted for their honesty.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
Swing 4.7% SNP to the Tories in Aberdeenfelix said:
Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:
CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
RED: 0.2% (+0.2)
No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
3:40 am - 4 Oct 20191 -
Rorys support of fox hunting wont go down well in London0
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So could HMtQ advise the PM that unless there was a respectable interval between her speech and the election..... i.e time for sensible(!) proposals to be enacted..... the speech wouldn't take place.rottenborough said:
Unless of course it's a very short speech. 'My Government has decided that since there are not enough MP's who support it, that it's going to see if it can get some more!'
Or words to that effect.0 -
Don't think will Rory will win but annoying because I opened my long Khan position just 2 days ago at 1.4 and he is 1.8 now because of this.
Opposite of Smug City whatever that is.0 -
It is second preferences that give Rory an outside chance of reaching the final two.HYUFD said:If Rory gets to the final 2 in the London Mayoral race he could have an outside chance of beating Sadiq Khan with Tory and LD preferences
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Hes a remainer. In fact he starts his video with the danger to London 'of brexit'Pulpstar said:Some things against Stewart
i) No official mark
ii) No obvious London connection
iii) Pro Brexit.0 -
Rory seems to have settled around 5-2 on the exchange.0
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I agree that Sadiq looks the value. I have backed him at 4/5. Crudely speaking, I don’t think London’s Muslims will ever vote for a non Muslim again unless there’s not a Muslim candidate, and they must be the biggest voting blocTissue_Price said:
Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).isam said:
What would you say Rory’s true % chance was? 20?Tissue_Price said:Sadiq 8/13
Rory 2/1
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20669323/D1/E43867842/F2/
It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.0 -
Muslim voters (around 12% if London population) are overwhelmingly Labour anyway. No doubt Khan does marginally better than, say, Livingstone, and drives a marginally higher turnout. But I seriously doubt it's worth much more than 1% of total vote over a non-Muslim Labour candidate (and indeed he probably loses a few more "traditional" Labour voters at the margins).isam said:
Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to mePulpstar said:Some things against Stewart
i) No official mark
ii) No obvious London connection
iii) Pro Brexit.0 -
Rory would be better than Khan.
But he’s up against an impressive get out the vote operation that can eek out 8 Labour votes from every 2 bedroom flat in Tower Hamlets.0 -
Ruth must have been a real drag on the Tory vote there....HYUFD said:
Swing 4.7% SNP to the Tories in Aberdeenfelix said:
Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:
CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
RED: 0.2% (+0.2)
No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
3:40 am - 4 Oct 20190 -
The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .
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As with the same spiel against coalition LibDems, I don't think most people in Rory's target market will buy it - his attraction is that he hasn't unthinkingly followed the pack. Quite apart from how true it is, it's one more example of Corbyn just hissing at anyone who's not signed up to his project. (And one to store up next time the outriders proclaim what a cuddly chap he is).TheJezziah said:
Do you really think he is?rottenborough said:Seriously rattled:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1180069923365806080
Khan will beat him easily, quite frankly I don't think Corbyn would be that harmed even if he didn't.
It leaves me (as a floating voter, but often Lab in the past) cold.0 -
She could always send Prince Charles?! That would be the cat amung the pigeons...OldKingCole said:
So could HMtQ advise the PM that unless there was a respectable interval between her speech and the election..... i.e time for sensible(!) proposals to be enacted..... the speech wouldn't take place.rottenborough said:
Unless of course it's a very short speech. 'My Government has decided that since there are not enough MP's who support it, that it's going to see if it can get some more!'
Or words to that effect.0 -
12% was in 2011 wasn’t it?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Muslim voters (around 12% if London population) are overwhelmingly Labour anyway. No doubt Khan does marginally better than, say, Livingstone, and drives a marginally higher turnout. But I seriously doubt it's worth much more than 1% of total vote over a non-Muslim Labour candidate (and indeed he probably loses a few more "traditional" Labour voters at the margins).isam said:
Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to mePulpstar said:Some things against Stewart
i) No official mark
ii) No obvious London connection
iii) Pro Brexit.
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What were they supposed to be swearing to?nico67 said:The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .
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The pattern of second preferences isn't likely to be very helpful to Rory. For a start a lot of voters in the mayoral election don't make a second preference at all, and of those that do, it's not clear that Rory is going to be their second choice: LD or Green voters may well put Khan second, or waste their second pref on Green/LD respectively. Tory voters won't necessarily put him second either, if they are angry about him being sane on Brexit.Tissue_Price said:Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).
It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.
He might get into the second round, but it's a big step to actually win the thing. I'd put fair odds at maybe 10/1, perhaps even longer.
Which is a great pity, because I think he's the best candidate ever to have stood for London Mayor since the modern post was created. So I hope I'm wrong and he manages to catch the zeitgeist. (I suspect he'll have a lot of support from the Evening Standard, which will help).0 -
He can't pull off a shock victory. By which I mean if we head into polling day with him in fourth or even third, people won't put him down second (well, not enough).Richard_Nabavi said:
The pattern of second preferences isn't likely to be very helpful to Rory. For a start a lot of voters in the mayoral election don't make a second preference at all, and of those that do, it's not clear that Rory is going to be their second choice: LD or Green voters may well put Khan second, or waste their second pref on Green/LD respectively. Tory voters won't necessarily put him second either, if they are angry about him being sane on Brexit.Tissue_Price said:Tricky - he could catch fire. He has a lot of nous even if his current positioning isn't that promising. And Khan hasn't been very impressive imho (though it's a long time since I had my finger on the pulse of London politics).
It's all about being the clear alternative to Khan (with only a second preference a Green-LD or Tory-LD ballot is no use), and he's probably best placed to be that. 20% sounds fair enough but Sadiq looks the value today - his challenge will be staying in - or at least close enough to - the Labour Party over Brexit.
He might get into the second round, but it's a big step to actually win the thing. I'd put fair odds at maybe 10/1, perhaps even longer.
Which is a a pity, because I think he's the best candidate ever to have stood for London Mayor since the modern post was created.0 -
Maybe someone should change his picture to an ass as well?HYUFD said:Obviously Shailesh has been reading my PB posts
https://twitter.com/ShaileshVara/status/1180047962703052800?s=20
0 -
The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
Remainer in a field of remainers
No party ticket
Voting history not very London voter centric (Tory policy vs non Tory city)
Pro fox hunting in a liberal, metropolitan election
Odds very much against him imo0 -
'I solemnly swear that I am up to no good'dyedwoolie said:
What were they supposed to be swearing to?nico67 said:The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .
0 -
Slightly nerdy O/T: busy day for the Home Office policing team. Away from the Met, they're apparently about to intervene in Warwickshire Police.
Background: neighbours West Mercia gave a year's notice on a strategic alliance deal 361 days ago because Warks have a 50pc say on everything for 30pc of the cost... no deal has been reached on ongoing co-operation, and Warks seem not to be ready to go their own way. (Sound familiar?)
https://www.westmercia-pcc.gov.uk/west-mercia-police-and-warwickshire-police-strategic-alliance/0 -
I think I have a spreadsheet* of 2016 second prefs somewhere, would be worth a look...
*My usual assumption is that AndyJS is involved somewhere, but I don't recall...0 -
I'd agree with your last sentence.. but just as much because he's not Remain enough for that electorate. He voted for the deal every time and has tweeted again this morning that he's against remain/referendum.dyedwoolie said:Remainer in a field of remainers
No party ticket
Voting history not very London voter centric (Tory policy vs non Tory city)
Pro fox hunting in a liberal, metropolitan election
Odds very much against him imo0 -
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He's not "parroting the words of a fascist" by using three common words in a natural order. He's simply making a reasonable point.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195852 -
Rory Stewart appears to be the UK's Pete Buttigeig. Very exciting to the media class, and absolutely nobody else.2
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50% increase from 2001. Can’t say whether it follows that 2011-2021 will be the same ratio of course.isam said:
12% was in 2011 wasn’t it?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Muslim voters (around 12% if London population) are overwhelmingly Labour anyway. No doubt Khan does marginally better than, say, Livingstone, and drives a marginally higher turnout. But I seriously doubt it's worth much more than 1% of total vote over a non-Muslim Labour candidate (and indeed he probably loses a few more "traditional" Labour voters at the margins).isam said:
Surely the Muslim vote wins it for Khan? Stewart splits the opposition more than hurts Sadiq I’d say. 1.8 looks decent to mePulpstar said:Some things against Stewart
i) No official mark
ii) No obvious London connection
iii) Pro Brexit.0 -
That the PM and government will obey the law . This might not be as big an issue as say in the prorogation case as they maintain their “we will obey the law but still come out on the 31 October “ however both can’t be true .dyedwoolie said:
What were they supposed to be swearing to?nico67 said:The government has once again failed to provide a sworn statement regarding the nobile officium case in the Scottish Court of Session .
The government does have a better chance of winning this case because they actuality haven’t broken the law yet and normally courts would only act after that.
There are two cases here though . One is to have an order compelling the PM to sign the extension letter and the other to allow a remedy if he doesn’t by allowing the court to sign on his behalf .0 -
This is very disappointing and a clear error from Baroness Hale. I speak as a Conservative very prepared to defend the Supreme Court, and their decision last week.
https://twitter.com/tes/status/11800389673009397762 -
Yes clearly St Ruth was not the only reason for Scottish Tory voters voting blueMarqueeMark said:
Ruth must have been a real drag on the Tory vote there....HYUFD said:
Swing 4.7% SNP to the Tories in Aberdeenfelix said:
Bridge of Don (Aberdeen) first preferences:
CON: 36.2% (+10.3)
SNP: 35.0% (+0.9)
LDEM: 18.1% (+8.8)
LAB: 5.9% (-5.2)
GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
UKIP: 1.1% (+1.1)
IND: 0.8% (-0.1)
RED: 0.2% (+0.2)
No other Ind(s) (-18.3) as prev.
3:40 am - 4 Oct 20191 -
Why in God's name would Corbyn support Stewart for London mayor? Have you completely taken leave of your senses?Harris_Tweed said:
As with the same spiel against coalition LibDems, I don't think most people in Rory's target market will buy it - his attraction is that he hasn't unthinkingly followed the pack. Quite apart from how true it is, it's one more example of Corbyn just hissing at anyone who's not signed up to his project. (And one to store up next time the outriders proclaim what a cuddly chap he is).TheJezziah said:
Do you really think he is?rottenborough said:Seriously rattled:
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1180069923365806080
Khan will beat him easily, quite frankly I don't think Corbyn would be that harmed even if he didn't.
It leaves me (as a floating voter, but often Lab in the past) cold.1 -
If I say ‘Liverpool will win the league’ and someone else says ‘I don’t think Liverpool will win the league’ they’re basically quoting me, according to the insanely inconsistent rule book of progressive politicsTissue_Price said:
He's not "parroting the words of a fascist" by using three common words in a natural order. He's simply making a reasonable point.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850 -
Not really, because the words you have added fundamentally change the meaning whereas the words Berry added didn't. But apart from that you are 100% correct, well done.isam said:
If I say ‘Liverpool will win the league’ and someone else says ‘I don’t think Liverpool will win the league’ they’re basically quoting me, according to the insanely inconsistent rule book of progressive politicsTissue_Price said:
He's not "parroting the words of a fascist" by using three common words in a natural order. He's simply making a reasonable point.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The exact words of Jo Cox's killer were "put Britain first". So even if Jake Berry appended "why don't you" in front and "for once" behind, I personally still think it is disgraceful to parrot the words of a fascist and convicted terrorist at the colleagues of the terrorist's victim, and is part of a deliberate Tory effort to employ extreme language to inflame passions, irrespective of the violence they might encourage. It is fine to engage robustly with your opponents but suggesting they are acting against the interests of this country is deeply irresponsible in today's climate.Tissue_Price said:
Come on @Cyclefree, you know better than to take Richard Burgon at face value, surely?Cyclefree said:
Agreed. It is an utter disgrace.OnlyLivingBoy said:
"Britain First" is what Jo Cox's killer shouted as he murdered her. If this is true then Berry should have the whip withdrawn. Assuming it happened, it is a plain expression of support for fascism and terrorism from the Tory front bench.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1179712281627766784
Maybe Jake Berry is just trying to get ahead of the crowd, Kippers are standard now. The hardcore need to go further to stand out.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/11797503042476195850
This discussion has been closed.