politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisions to be made by a referendum
In the panel above from new YouGov polling published this afternoon there is clear support for a final referendum on a deal or if nothing can be agreed a no deal.
Comments
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Yes0
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first like Boris2
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I mean No..0
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What was the question again?0
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As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!0
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What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
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Revoke A50!
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Unintentionally accurate post.eek said:first like Boris
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None! That's the problem with the pollingwilliamglenn said:
What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
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We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.3 -
This is flawed analysis. What we see is the same story of half the country being Remainers and wanting a fresh referendum to cancel Brexit, and the other half not supportive. That can't be directly translated to a General Election result, where there are four major parties.
In the GE, there will be a split on the Remain side (Lab vs LD) and a split on the Leave side (Con vs Brx). Each side will be half the country but the exact splits matter. Labour's vile leadership means they have a limited ceiling, but if the Lib Dems make a true breakthrough that could change things to unify that side. Equally if Leavers are stupid enough to follow Farage, that could split Leave and stop Brexit (for now).0 -
What is the difference between a recursion and a regression?rcs1000 said:We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.0 -
If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?
Makes no sense for them to want this.
Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.0 -
So less than half, only 40% believe another referendum is better than a general election. That is driven by Labour and LD voters 65% and 76% respectively who prefer another referendum while 62% of Tory voters prefer a general elections as do 76% of Brexit Party voters.
Tory voters by 46% to 27% also believe MPs should have the final say on any new Deal.
Support for another referendum only gets over 50% in the event of No Deal and then only narrowly to 52%0 -
The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.0
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The Flavible website seems to be in the process of being updated. Usually you can go there to get a seats forecast based on user inputs.0
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I mean who else could conceivably decide?isam said:
None! That's the problem with the pollingwilliamglenn said:
What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
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Only 52% support you say... I'm sure there are some people who consider 52% to be a clear victory in another context.HYUFD said:So less than half, only 40% believe another referendum is better than a general election. That is driven by Labour and LD voters 65% and 76% respectively who prefer another referendum while 62% of Tory voters prefer a general elections as do 76% of Brexit Party voters.
Tory voters by 46% to 27% also believe MPs should have the final say on any new Deal.
Support for another referendum only gets over 50% in the event of No Deal and then only narrowly to 52%1 -
Those questions are designed for the result they produce.
Linking to Boris Johnson
Linking to MPs vs public
It is heavily loaded.1 -
I know, just kiddingwilliamglenn said:
I mean who else could conceivably decide?isam said:
None! That's the problem with the pollingwilliamglenn said:
What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
The PM of course, as it should have been since the moment we voted to leave. They agree a deal with the EU, that's it.0 -
It's an interesting point. By dismissing MPs as useless, the government removes is own agency because the executive enables legislation through parliament.
It's noteworthy that Conservatives and Leavers who are most anti parliament are also the ones who think (without apparent enthusiasms it must be said) that parliament should make the decision.0 -
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My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.HYUFD said:
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Is Arlene Foster morphing into Paul Merton?
https://twitter.com/breakingnewsie/status/11775871021056901122 -
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered0 -
But that is what the PM is going to be going under at the GE and the oppo parties are going to remind people. it's realistic.noneoftheabove said:Those questions are designed for the result they produce.
Linking to Boris Johnson
Linking to MPs vs public
It is heavily loaded.0 -
M64!The_Taxman said:Revoke A50!
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It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.HYUFD said:
Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?0 -
P45 for Boris!Sunil_Prasannan said:
M64!The_Taxman said:Revoke A50!
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Have you forgotten about Blair winning a 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%?johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
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Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered0 -
+1 BJ needs the Boot!Noo said:
P45 for Boris!Sunil_Prasannan said:
M64!The_Taxman said:Revoke A50!
He is sleazy and incompetent! The bar seems to be set incredibly low for him. 0 -
But this gets to one of the things I don't understand about Brexit supporters. One of the main consequences of Brexit is going to be British MPs having more power to make decisions over areas where they're currently fairly powerless.isam said:
I know, just kiddingwilliamglenn said:
I mean who else could conceivably decide?isam said:
None! That's the problem with the pollingwilliamglenn said:
What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
The PM of course, as it should have been since the moment we voted to leave. They agree a deal with the EU, that's it.
You think MPs have made a mess of the Brexit process....fair enough, a lot of people would agree with that. But what makes you think they'll be any more competent and/or able to find consensus when they have to put together the post-Brexit immigration system? Or when they're negotiating trade deals with the USA or Commonwealth countries or wherever?0 -
Very Clever, I like that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
M64!The_Taxman said:Revoke A50!
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Funny that you think if Leave lost then Boris would be triumphant and the remain parties would be shattered but if remain wins Boris would be triumphant and swept into power. It’s almost as if you start with the answer you want and then try to fit a reason to try and justify it.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
Of course the mystery is that if a referendum on the final deal would be so great for the Tories it’s strange they don’t want to have one. Ummmm1 -
We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.rcs1000 said:We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.0 -
The PMs chief of staff and Farage are both occassional fans of a 2nd ref.....they dont normally agree on much.MarqueeMark said:
We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.rcs1000 said:We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.0 -
It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.HYUFD said:0 -
MPs could ratify the deal if the deal or implement no deal.williamglenn said:
I mean who else could conceivably decide?isam said:
None! That's the problem with the pollingwilliamglenn said:
What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
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Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered0 -
Have I got reactionary views for you!Noo said:Is Arlene Foster morphing into Paul Merton?
https://twitter.com/breakingnewsie/status/11775871021056901128 -
Labour MPs might consider voting for a final agreement. They would not vote for Johnson's proposals. It would make absolutely no sense to do that.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.HYUFD said:
Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?
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To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.Chris said:
It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.HYUFD said:
There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.0 -
What if they were only prevented from forming a government because they split into multiple factions, none of which would compromise, and therefore didnt have a majority in parliament?HYUFD said:
Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered0 -
If the European parliament voted for the May WA would that put pressure on the UK government to agree it?Philip_Thompson said:
To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.Chris said:
It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.HYUFD said:
There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.
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Depends how Johnson phrases the vote. If it is phrased as an indicative vote "That if the EU agrees to these proposals this house will pass the agreement" then they might consider voting for it. So long as it is explicitly subject to EU agreement.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs might consider voting for a final agreement. They would not vote for Johnson's proposals. It would make absolutely no sense to do that.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.HYUFD said:
Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?0 -
Yes. It did put pressure on the UK to agree to it [of course the government at the time already had]. The pressure was insufficient, it could only ever be marginal, but it definitely was real.SouthamObserver said:
If the European parliament voted for the May WA would that put pressure on the UK government to agree it?Philip_Thompson said:
To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.Chris said:
It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.HYUFD said:
There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.
Especially when part of the reason not to was thinking the UK wouldn't ratify it.0 -
Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?HYUFD said:I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016
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That's the spirit!MarqueeMark said:
We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.rcs1000 said:We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.0 -
He always obeys the Tory Leader.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?HYUFD said:I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016
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Not a good backdrop for a pure "Revoke" strategy either, hmm?0
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We’ll put you down as a don’t know, then ?isam said:
None! That's the problem with the pollingwilliamglenn said:
What other option do you see?isam said:As if the only options are parliament voting or another referendum!
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They would have a majority to implement the manifesto they were elected onnoneoftheabove said:
What if they were only prevented from forming a government because they split into multiple factions, none of which would compromise, and therefore didnt have a majority in parliament?HYUFD said:
Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered0 -
Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.1
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I voted Remain as I thought the membership as is with the opt-outs was the best option, had membership of the Euro or Schengen been a requirement of continued membership I would have voted Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?HYUFD said:I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016
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I am talking about now. Would such a vote put pressure on the UK government?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. It did put pressure on the UK to agree to it [of course the government at the time already had]. The pressure was insufficient, it could only ever be marginal, but it definitely was real.SouthamObserver said:
If the European parliament voted for the May WA would that put pressure on the UK government to agree it?Philip_Thompson said:
To demonstrate to the EU that if they compromise then the deal can get through Parliament. And subtly put pressure on the EU to compromise.Chris said:
It would make very little sense to vote either way if negotiations with the EU were still going on. What earthly point would there be in a vote, other than as sheer propaganda?SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that there would be a hell of a lot of abstentions should such a vote be held. I cannot see many Labour MPs backing it in theory.HYUFD said:
There's been mutterings that the EU didn't see any point compromising as they didn't think a deal would get through Parliament even if they did. If they see a deal can be ratified that ups the ante.
Especially when part of the reason not to was thinking the UK wouldn't ratify it.
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You are taking the Michael I thinkrcs1000 said:We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.0 -
No, I don't see that. Labour MPs are not going to open themselves up to the removal of the whip and possible deselection for an indicative vote on a proposal that the EU is almost certainly going to reject in its current form. Some might possibly vote for an agreement, but that is very different.Philip_Thompson said:
Depends how Johnson phrases the vote. If it is phrased as an indicative vote "That if the EU agrees to these proposals this house will pass the agreement" then they might consider voting for it. So long as it is explicitly subject to EU agreement.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs might consider voting for a final agreement. They would not vote for Johnson's proposals. It would make absolutely no sense to do that.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It won't make it much harder for the EU to reject it. But it will make it much easier for Johnson to blame the EU for the failure of negotiations with the domestic audience he cares about.HYUFD said:
Do you really think that the Irish are going to think, "this plan crosses every one of our red lines but, you know what, Gareth Snell voted for it so it's a yes from us"?
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Amazing developments in Broxtowe. To recap.
1. Anna Soubry wins in 2017 by 800 votes (1.5%) over Labour.
2. The constituency association chair initiates a survey of members whether they'd like to deselect her.
3. He's told to stop it and withdraw the survey.
4. AS defects to ChUK.
5. The LibDems decide to stand as well.
6. The Tories reject their Council leader as a candidate (allegedly because he was too friendly with AS) and choose someone from Wiltshire
See the latest according to this (admittedly anti-Tory) local website:
https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/blue-on-blue-brox-tories-go-to-war-on-brox-tories/
Richard Jackson, who they passed over, has been prominent in Broxtowe politics longer than I have (pre-97).
There should therefore be 5 candidates:
Tory from Wiltshire
Soubry
Labour
LibDems
Brexit
The seat voted 52% Leave though it has a large town, Beeston, which is demographically like Hampstead).0 -
My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.justin124 said:Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.
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Although I'm coming round to the vew that we need a Peoples Assembly to decide if we need that pre-referendum.....rcs1000 said:
That's the spirit!MarqueeMark said:
We need a pre-referendum to decide the question that will be asked in the referendum, to decide whether we then want a referendum on that question....and then having the referendum on that question if we so decide.rcs1000 said:We can't trust the polling on whether people want a referendum. Don't forget that we had a referendum on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU and that gave a different answer to what the polling said.
The solution, therefore, is to have a referendum on whether we should have a referendum. So we'll only have a referendum on the deal if the people speak through a referendum demanding a referendum.0 -
MarqueeMark said:
If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?
Makes no sense for them to want this.
Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.
You're not going to change anybodys mind banging on about this when you have some evidence then try again0 -
Argue against my logic then.nichomar said:MarqueeMark said:If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?
Makes no sense for them to want this.
Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.
You're not going to change anybodys mind banging on about this when you have some evidence then try again0 -
If it's OK for individual voters to change their minds, what would be wrong with a second referendum, in principle?HYUFD said:
I voted Remain as I thought the membership as is with the opt-outs was the best option, had membership of the Euro or Schengen been a requirement of continued membership I would have voted Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?HYUFD said:I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016
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My guess is that the LDs might give AS a free runNickPalmer said:Amazing developments in Broxtowe. To recap.
1. Anna Soubry wins in 2017 by 800 votes (1.5%) over Labour.
2. The constituency association chair initiates a survey of members whether they'd like to deselect her.
3. He's told to stop it and withdraw the survey.
4. AS defects to ChUK.
5. The LibDems decide to stand as well.
6. The Tories reject their Council leader as a candidate (allegedly because he was too friendly with AS) and choose someone from Wiltshire
See the latest according to this (admittedly anti-Tory) local website:
https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/blue-on-blue-brox-tories-go-to-war-on-brox-tories/
Richard Jackson, who they passed over, has been prominent in Broxtowe politics longer than I have (pre-97).
There should therefore be 5 candidates:
Tory from Wiltshire
Soubry
Labour
LibDems
Brexit
The seat voted 52% Leave though it has a large town, Beeston, which is demographically like Hampstead).0 -
NickPalmer said:
Not a good backdrop for a pure "Revoke" strategy either, hmm?
Always the labour politician trying to discredit the Lib Dems even if you do it subtly0 -
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Evening Nick.NickPalmer said:Amazing developments in Broxtowe. To recap.
1. Anna Soubry wins in 2017 by 800 votes (1.5%) over Labour.
2. The constituency association chair initiates a survey of members whether they'd like to deselect her.
3. He's told to stop it and withdraw the survey.
4. AS defects to ChUK.
5. The LibDems decide to stand as well.
6. The Tories reject their Council leader as a candidate (allegedly because he was too friendly with AS) and choose someone from Wiltshire
See the latest according to this (admittedly anti-Tory) local website:
https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/blue-on-blue-brox-tories-go-to-war-on-brox-tories/
Richard Jackson, who they passed over, has been prominent in Broxtowe politics longer than I have (pre-97).
There should therefore be 5 candidates:
Tory from Wiltshire
Soubry
Labour
LibDems
Brexit
The seat voted 52% Leave though it has a large town, Beeston, which is demographically like Hampstead).
My daughter's Halls of Residence are Broadgate Park. Is that within the Broxtowe constituency? I ask because they are a very large halls which I expect would mean a lot of LD or Soubry leaning votes.0 -
After the result of the first one and we have left the EU maybe in a few years time we could have another about rejoining if say Labour or the LDs won a general election but only once the result of the first one has been delivered.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If it's OK for individual voters to change their minds, what would be wrong with a second referendum, in principle?HYUFD said:
I voted Remain as I thought the membership as is with the opt-outs was the best option, had membership of the Euro or Schengen been a requirement of continued membership I would have voted Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Why didn't you support Leave in 2016?HYUFD said:I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016
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The day the EU say this or no deal I’ll believe you but as yet I’ve seen no evidence for that position.MarqueeMark said:
Argue against my logic then.nichomar said:MarqueeMark said:If the EU thinks it has a deal, why on earth would it want us to take the risk of it all being thrown up in the air again by those ornery Brits?
Makes no sense for them to want this.
Of course, no further extensions by the EU forces the MPs to do their job - and decide.
You're not going to change anybodys mind banging on about this when you have some evidence then try again0 -
There's enough voters in the 35% GE + 25% DK to counter the 40% who would opt for another referendum, particularly when you take into account that polling always overstates desire for referenda in the first place.0
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O/T
Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.0 -
Does anyone think Mark Francois and Guy Verhofstadt look similar ?0
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I do have some respect for committed Labour Brexiteers like Hoey, Stringer et al - in that they have been consistent in their opposition throughout. It would though be unforgiveable for people like Kinnock, Smeeth & Snell who had the opportunity to vote for May's better deal - but chose not to do so - to now decide to support somebody as abhorrent as Johnson.They flunked it earlier on - and should be granted no leeway now.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.justin124 said:Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.
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Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happenedScott_P said:0 -
So more showboating by Bozo to put a deal before the Commons before the EU council meeting .
It would be hilarious if it was amended to include a second vote .1 -
Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?HYUFD said:Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened
Genius...-2 -
Would happily welcome Smeeth, Snell even Kinnock into the Tory Party with Knighthoods on top if they vote for the Boris Deal and Labour withdraws the Whip and deselects themjustin124 said:
I do have some respect for committed Labour Brexiteers like Hoey, Stringer et al - in that they have been consistent in their opposition throughout. It would though be unforgiveable for people like Kinnock, Smeeth & Snell who had the opportunity to vote for May's better deal - but chose not to do so - to now decide to support somebody as abhorrent as Johnson.They flunked it earlier on - and should be granted no leeway now.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.justin124 said:Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.
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What the diehard Remainers have been doing with Ireland and Blair has been doing with MacronScott_P said:
Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?HYUFD said:Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened
Genius...1 -
We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.HYUFD said:
Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter or man of principle do you call yourself?0 -
Yes typical leave hypocrisy . As with the sovereignty of parliament we heard so much about .Scott_P said:
Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?HYUFD said:Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened
Genius...0 -
No I support democracy, if a party wins a general election or a referendum campaign wins that referendum that result deserves to be respected otherwise democracy dies and the only beneficiaries are the political extremes and violenceTOPPING said:
We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.HYUFD said:
Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter do you call yourself?0 -
There will probably be an attemptnico67 said:So more showboating by Bozo to put a deal before the Commons before the EU council meeting .
It would be hilarious if it was amended to include a second vote .0 -
As long as your team wins anything is acceptable.HYUFD said:
Would happily welcome Smeeth, Snell even Kinnock into the Tory Party with Knighthoods on top if they vote for the Boris Deal and Labour withdraws the Whip and deselects themjustin124 said:
I do have some respect for committed Labour Brexiteers like Hoey, Stringer et al - in that they have been consistent in their opposition throughout. It would though be unforgiveable for people like Kinnock, Smeeth & Snell who had the opportunity to vote for May's better deal - but chose not to do so - to now decide to support somebody as abhorrent as Johnson.They flunked it earlier on - and should be granted no leeway now.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that this is almost certainly what woud happen. However, as I keep saying, there is no possible deal that can be done that the ERG would vote for, so it's all moot anyway.justin124 said:Labour MPs who end up voting for a Boris Deal who previously failed to support May's Deal should have the Whip withdrawn - and be deselected.
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That fellow did great interviews with James O'Brien & Emily Maitlis, which saw them dying to treat him like they do "Stupid Brexiteers" but not sure if attacking a clever Eastern European was a good lookScott_P said:0 -
spudgfsh said:
Well I first thought it was a replacement for those things called public conveniences0 -
317 MPs voted for the Brady amendment and the Withdrawal Amendment minus the backstop ie close to the Boris Deal, only 280 MPs voted for a confirmatory referendum on any Deal in the second round of indicative votesMikeSmithson said:
There will probably be an attemptnico67 said:So more showboating by Bozo to put a deal before the Commons before the EU council meeting .
It would be hilarious if it was amended to include a second vote .0 -
Read the Ireland Act 1948 dear boy. Ireland is for no purposes to be regarded as a foreign country. And you would struggle to find any collusion with Ireland to thwart the will of Parliament. As for Blair, what office in the executive does he hold now?HYUFD said:
What the diehard Remainers have been doing with Ireland and Blair has been doing with MacronScott_P said:
Collaborating with a foreign power to thwart the will of Parliament?HYUFD said:Hungary ready to veto further extension making the Benn Act redundant, then put the Boris Deal to Parliament as the only alternative to No Deal? Cummings would be a genius if that happened
Genius...0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo06pb1hXbUisam said:
That fellow did great interviews with James O'Brien & Emily Maitlis, which saw them dying to treat him like they do "Stupid Brexiteers" but not sure if attacking a clever Eastern European was a good lookScott_P said:0 -
The Johnson Deal is BAD. The only good thing about it is that it will almost certainly never see light of day. The proposal retains the downsides of May's Deal, loses all of that deal's advantages, save one. It adds much more significant problems of its own, particularly for Northern Ireland. It's probably unworkable operationally and it misconceives the purpose of international treaties.
I get that Johnson's Deal is really a political manouevre for his domestic market. But it needs to be underpinned by a real deal.
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You have just seen democracy in action over the past three years. That's what a parliamentary democracy looks like.HYUFD said:
No I support democracy, if a party wins a general election or a referendum campaign wins that referendum that result deserves to be respected otherwise democracy dies and the only beneficiaries are the political extremes and violenceTOPPING said:
We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.HYUFD said:
Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter do you call yourself?
If Theresa May had handled it differently we would be out of the EU by now. The referendum result should be honoured but the Cons played party politics (as was their right albeit it was stupid) and therefore so did Labour.
It's all been perfectly democratic (and legal of course).
So you have nothing to complain about; indeed you should be rejoicing. That you would vote differently in a referendum doesn't I'm afraid speak well of your integrity or consistency.
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Is there a phone box app?AndyJS said:O/T
Useful information: if and when you use a phone box, be aware than none of them take the new £1 coins. You have to use 50, 20 and 10 pence coins.
It could let someone lend out there mobile phone and charge a premium
for the call? Could be a small earner for local shop owners.0 -
Some results don’t deserve to be respected. Risking Godwin here, the German general elections of 1932 and 1933 spring immediately to mind. And the 1932 Western Australia independence referendum was not implemented. No violence there. In the case of the 2016 vote, the contradictory promises cannot be delivered so it cannot help but be dishonoured.HYUFD said:
No I support democracy, if a party wins a general election or a referendum campaign wins that referendum that result deserves to be respected otherwise democracy dies and the only beneficiaries are the political extremes and violenceTOPPING said:
We have a sovereign parliament. Deal with it.HYUFD said:
Only if they won a general election with a majority and were then prevented from forming a government as that would be disrespecting democracyTOPPING said:
Would you vote for Labour from then on if they won the next general election?HYUFD said:
It wouldn't actually as most Tories are now firmly behind Leave, certainly in the country, as is the Tory Leader (I am a Tory activist for example and voted Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave and respect the first vote), while LDs and the SNP are firmly behind Remain.johnt said:The problem for the Tories is that another referendum will finally rip the party apart. Personally I don’t have a problem with that but Johnson will do anything to avoid that. His desired outcome will be Brexit and then an election where he will hope the undemocratic electoral system will give him a working majority on 35% of the vote. That of course will rip the country apart.
If another referendum ripped any party apart it would be Corbyn Labour, where the recent Labour conference saw the party vote by the narrowest of margins not to commit to campaign for Remain against the wishes of most Labour members and where most Labour voters voted Remain but most Labour seats voted Leave.
I don't want another referendum but it could be win win for the Tories provided Boris campaigned for Leave, if Remain wins narrowly Boris can be Alex Salmond 2 and win a landslide at the next general election under FPTP thanks to furious Leavers wanting revenge as the SNP did in 2015 after the narrow No vote in 2014.
If Leave wins again Boris would be triumphant as would the Tories with the Remainer parties shattered
So you would support Jeremy Corbyn. You change with the wind. What kind of a supporter do you call yourself?0 -
Tut, tut *Important bit this* "proposal", not "deal"FF43 said:The Johnson Deal is BAD. The only good thing about it is that it will almost certainly never see light of day. The proposal retains the downsides of May's Deal, loses all of that deal's advantages, save one. It adds much more significant problems of its own, particularly for Northern Ireland. It's probably unworkable operationally and it misconceives the purpose of international treaties.
I get that Johnson's Deal is really a political manouevre for his domestic market. But it needs to be underpinned by a real deal.0
