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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling on party Brexit awareness highlights the ch

With the coming general election looking set to be a battle between parties that back Leave and and those that back Remain this YouGov polling on perceptions of the Brexit stance of each party looks be a good pointer.
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Although Farage is opposed in practice to leaving in any way that we actually can.
I suspect the VNOC will be tabled in advance of any Deal being presented - with Johnson having already been defeated on the Queens Speech.
Many of us on here are obsessed about Brexit -- I include myself in that -- but lots of folks out there aren't and have other policy concerns.
Labour might be playing this just right even they can get the conversation onto other subjects during a campaign. Set-piece debates might help on that front, since there will be questions about various policy areas from the hosts and selected from the audience. My hunch is that the broadcasters will want to keep the debates as good-tempered as possible, meaning Brexit could be de-emphasised.
Let's see whether there's even an election first though.
the yoke of British oppressionour benevolent rule. We could take Réunion again for old times sake.@SkyNews
· 21h
.@LibDems leader @joswinson is vetoing a plan - backed by the other parties - to install @jeremycorbyn as a temporary prime minister if @borisjohnson is defeated in a vote of no confidence
Sky News obsessed with Tory Swinson plan to allow a No Deal Brexit obsessed i tell you
I presume that the 12% who think the Tories are anti-Brexit is the current floor for the combined vote share for the Brexit Party and UKIP.
Corbyn/McDonell and Momentum are the most ideologically extreme leadership of any party that has stood in the UK with the prospect of actually getting MPs. They have been normalised a bit by being in charge for a few years but the reality of the choice facing us at the next election is very grim with the LDs as the least bad alternative. To gain a big block in parliament it is essential that Swinson attacks both main parties pretty equally in my opinion.
And it isn't the Labour one.
Although these days it's the traffic on US Route 9 that would probably stop a perfidious English invasion from the Canadas in its tracks...
Move to replace Labour requires maximising votes (%) and seats.
Promoting voting Labour tactically increases the Labour seat tally thus marginalising the Libdems in the march to replacing Labour. If they don't encourage tactical voting the tories win more seats but they close the gap to Labour.
Choices!
If Johnson is forced to extend, which seems very likely, it is quite possible that he will remain in office for some time afterwards. You can easily see why it would be in the interests of the opposition to leave him marooned while Farage mops up Tory voters.
But I think that they will continue with their demonstration of stupidity and unfitness for office.
https://calendar.parliament.uk/calendar/Commons/All/2019/10/1/Daily
1. Scrutinised the Treasury.
2. Scrutinised the Government’s plans for the Irish border.
3. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the homeless.
4. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the war in Yemen.
5. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on agriculture after Brexit.
Basically doing their job.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1179120524376580096
1. Scrutinised the Treasury.
2. Scrutinised the Government’s plans for the Irish border.
3. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the homeless.
4. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on the war in Yemen.
5. Scrutinised the Government’s policy on agriculture after Brexit.
Doing their job basically.
Pretty much anything but dealing with Brexit then...
In fact you probably are - it must be a >25% chance I'd have thought.
If that were to happen following a VONC, and a failure to agree on a replacement PM, then the VONC would have to be held no later than October 10th. But I see no reason why a VONC would be called before the Benn Act date of 19th October, unless the Opposition had agreed on a replacement PM.
There isn't the time.
The Benn act merely requires the PM to request an extension *IF* Boris has either failed to bring a deal back or brought a deal back and it has been rejected by Parliament.
Clearly the deal will be fantastic so it will fly through Parliament nee problem.
I am not sure the LDs can even get back to 2010 strength let alone Charlie Kennedy's heyday.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/eu-ready-to-consider-time-limit-on-irish-backstop-in-brexit-deal?srnd=premium-europe
Today, Macron was in Strasbourg and Merkel was in Berlin.
https://www.elysee.fr/en/diary
https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/angela-merkel/terminkalender
Now, it may be that that spread blows out to 18-20 points, but you are taking a lot for granted in assuming it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135